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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. i am just looking forward to the next ECB meeting, if inflation really does reach 1%, then Dragi and and the eu council will have to start signalling the end of QE, they cannot allow interest rate differentials to widen even more and increase the debt burden. Problem of course is the political events that may emerge so the FTSE could be affected either way.
  2. Short video by reuters on chinas intervention to defend its currency. http://www.reuters.tv/v/IiE/2016/12/30/china-s-currency-set-for-biggest-annual-loss-since-94
  3. Opinion: Goldman Sachs describes two different Trump economies, so which is right? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-describes-two-different-trump-economies-so-which-is-right-2016-12-29?link=sfmw_tw
  4. Draghi Set for Inflation Boost That May Not Be All He Needs. (Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-30/draghi-set-to-get-inflation-boost-that-might-not-be-all-he-needs?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
  5. EURO DOLLAR TRADE OF THE WEEK FINISHED. Euro Jumps 1.6 Percent in Minutes as Algo Orders Surprise Market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-30/euro-surges-amid-thin-liquidity-as-algo-orders-surprise-traders?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
  6. EURO DOLLAR has a rocket before asian trade today
  7. Looking at EURO DOLLAR we have seen a nice stage comeback, however since the overall trend is down and since the DXY is an the inverse correlation its is important to assess that are we now going to see a deeper retracement or will be very soon continue on the bearish trajectory and if so for how long. Next week we have some really interesting data out on Wednesday the 4th of January for EU inflation of which is forecasted to be 1%, up from 0.6%. We also have the ADP US employment report forecasted to be 173K down from 216K, therefore you can see how the EURO and the DXY could react. Because T
  8. Relationship Between The Dollar And Inflation Expectations Has Completely Reversed Since Summer (ZERO HEDGE) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-29/relationship-between-dollar-and-inflation-expectations-has-completely-reversed-summe
  9. Dollar will find buyers hard to find in 2017 Uncertainty over Trump likely to offset benefit to dollar of higher rates (Source FT) With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank seemingly unable to escape his addiction to quantitative easing policy, many investors are questioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. The whole world is eager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to be finding anyone who wants to buy the US dollar. The Middle East is a good example of a region of avid euro buyers. Even wi
  10. Trump's policies may be Reagan-like, but the economy's not, says former Reagan economist. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/28/trumps-policies-may-be-reagan-like-but-economys-not-ex-reagan-economist.html
  11. An interesting article below, slightly bias but a notable argument : Trump’s Economic Plan is a Betrayal of the People Who Voted for Him. Trump’s economic plan has sent stocks ripping higher for six weeks straight. But what’s going to happen to stock prices when Congress gives Trump’s plan a big thumbs down? Has anyone thought about that yet? And what about the Fed? Does anyone seriously think that Fed chairman Janet Yellen is going to sit on her hands while Trump launches a $1 trillion fiscal stimulus package that triggers a sudden burst of growth followed by a sharp uptick in inflation?
  12. Dollar sags vs yen on lower U.S. yields, ebb in risk appetite. (Reuters) The dollar sagged against the yen on Thursday, weighed down by U.S. yields slipping to two-week lows and an ebb in risk appetite that favoured the safe-haven Japanese currency. The dollar was down 0.4 percent at 116.800 yen JPY=, having come down from a high of 117.815 touched overnight. Treasury yields fell in the wake of weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data and a robust debt auction. [uS/] The greenback also felt pressure from the safe-haven yen, which provided a home for funds retreating from the
  13. Always remember that when ever you take a position its not just the broker that can take the other side of the position, but its all of us that perform this action which is what is ideal for everyone hence why it is a zero sum game, so if i buy one lot of aud usd, someone in the market will short the same amount, but when this cannot be done which is common when dealing with swaps and call and put options then the broker must perform the trade, it does not affect your chances of making money, but you cannot buy or sell without another buyer or seller being matched. The problem is with flash cr
  14. Interesting video on ETF inflows and outflows of gold with Jeremy Naylor https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-videos?bctid=5263514909001&bclid=3671160850001
  15. Watch out Dow Bulls some of the big heavy waits on the index could have some significant profit taking, most likely once congress passes the new tax laws. UBS: Here Are the Most Crowded Stocks in the World Right Now. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/ubs-here-are-the-most-crowded-stocks-in-the-world-right-now?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
  16. Well worth a read this PDF from CITI Group for those trading G10 FX Pairs. Date is from December 19th, therefore fairly recent. Really good insight. Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight. https://www.citibank.com.hk/global_docs/mobile/investment/pdf/fx_insight_e.pdf
  17. USD CAD The forecast average rate from 17 global banks is 1.3717. That forecast rises to 1.3855 by the fourth quarter of 2017. Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan famously said that the efficiency of FX markets forecasting exchange rates for major currencies is as accurate as forecasting the outcome of the flip of a coin. With that in mind, these are the key issues for USDCAD traders in 2017... Domestic factors A key negative undermining the Canadian dollar is that the Bank of Canada is dovish. That isn’t even a perception, it is a reality ever since October when Bank
  18. Graphic content – December; the countries most exposed to a rise in protectionism. President-elect Trump has suggested withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and ending negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), albeit there is considerable uncertainty over what he will, or even can, do. If one of the main consequences of the election of Donald Trump is US protectionism, it’s worth considering who stands to lose the most. We have considered countries’ exports to the US as a percentage of their GDP, in the belief that countries that trade most with the
  19. EM currencies: winners and losers in 2016 (Source FT) With only five trading days left in the year, the race is on for the title of this year’s best and worst performing major emerging-market currencies. On the winning side, a late surge by the Russian rouble this month in the wake of Opec’s deal with members and non-members to limit crude output has put the currency neck-and-neck with the Brazilian real. The rouble is currently up 20.2 per cent this year against the dollar, compared to the real’s 21.3 per cent gain. The real had been up by as much as 23 per cent as recently as October am
  20. I also think that long Nikkei and short dollar Yen is also a great trade for 2017 as long as inflation (CPI PPI) maintain their current rise and therefore dollar bullishness. Therefore you can see why this is a favorable trade. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar extends gains against the yen, the BOJ might begin tapering its aggressive monetary easing. But once the yen turns upward, the central bank could be forced to implement additional easing once again, just like it’s done for the past several years. Daiju Aoki, an economist at UBS Group AG, echoed that view. “We thi
  21. Here are 3 top trade ideas for 2017 from Bank of America's chart analysts. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/here-are-3-top-trade-ideas-for-2017-from-bank-of-americas-chart-analysts.html
  22. Here Are Goldman Sachs' Top Trade Ideas for 2017.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-18/here-are-goldman-sachs-top-trade-ideas-for-2017.
  23. True Casey, i have been scalping this most of yesterday and today on bullish momentum trades. I do think that this dollar bullishness is going over the top slightly, but that does not mean the market does not continue on the delusional trajectory which is why its best not to question logic just stick to the price action, but since Trump has not come in yet and fiscal policies not been even started then we must watch US inflation as this will be the key driver to further bulliness in the dollar.
  24. The 1.0450 level is a tough nut to crack (Source forex live) Just hearing that the offers at 1.0450 are being backed up by talk of a large institution sitting there. Other sources say they were up here last time too. So far the price has been banging its head on the ceiling.
  25. And the dollar is over-valued casey. I saw this live this morning but sterling is also heavily related to the brexit news and with plenty of uncertainty also the upcoming high court ruling in the new year and can only see further pressure on this currency pair. Sterling-euro has been performing well but mostly because of euro-appreciation which at the moment shows a correlation coefficient of -86% and this is evidence since 9th November where you see a massive depreciation of euro dollar and massive appreciation of sterling euro. Eventually of course this trend will change but i cant see for
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