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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. The big events that shook financial markets in 2016 Brexit, Trump and oil among the key contributors to a tumultuous year. The new year routJanuary proved brutal for investors. After just 10 trading days, global equity markets had lost more than $4tn of value, with sentiment hammered by fears about China’s economic slowdown and a depreciating currency. In turn, bond markets were whiplashed by the conflicting forces of central banks selling reserves to support their currencies and investors rushing for safety. As FT Markets covered the anxiety at such an early stage of the year, we cauti
  2. Dominion of FX market remains intact despite year of change. Greenback’s sharp appreciation since election poses real problems for other assets. (Source FT) A must read article!!!!!!! Regime change is in the air. The US will change its political regime next month, in what could be the most significant shift in generations. Meanwhile, another regime change may just have happened this week. As universally expected, the Federal Reserve announced only the second rise in its target rate since 2006. That was no surprise. But two things were different. First, there was the messaging from J
  3. Opinion: Is the bond market embarking on a 1946-like 35-year cycle of rising rates? (Market Watch) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-bond-market-embarking-on-a-1946-like-35-year-cycle-of-rising-rates-2016-12-08?link=sfmw_tw
  4. Seems oil wants to head higher currently in a collision with a resistance trend line,several touches so far and awaiting a break out
  5. China Dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $403 Billion In US Paper. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/china-belgium-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-403-billion-us-
  6. Euro tumbles to 14-year low against the dollar (Telegraph Business) `http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/15/european-markets-slide-following-federal-reserve-interest-rate/
  7. The Fed pulls the trigger on higher interest rates This week’s increase in borrowing costs comes across as premature By the time it came, the US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate rise in 2016 — only the second since the tightening cycle began last year — was no surprise. The ground had been carefully prepared by comments from officials. But the fact that Wednesday’s move was expected does not mean it was wise. The Fed has been hunting around for evidence to raise rates for a while, in the belief that monetary policy is unnaturally loose and it should seize any credible excuse to ti
  8. Dollar hits 14-year high as US outlook strengthens Hawkish Fed sends spread between short-dated US and German debt to 16-year peak (Source FT). The US dollar hit its highest levels in 14 years on Thursday as investors took their lead from a hawkish Federal Reserve in pricing in a stronger US economy under Donald Trump. The rise in the dollar index pushed the euro to its lowest level in more than a decade and roiled emerging markets, which had been enjoying a strong recovery until Mr Trump’s election victory. The US currency and global stock indices both rose in response to Wednesday’s
  9. The dollar rally has had a remarkable run this quarter spiking almost 10% so far since September and the € $ losing 8.5%, and of course how could i forget the great relief for Kuroda $-Y weakening 18% since September. Which therefore comes to show that the FED is not only the central bank of the USA but also that of the globe. The question is now how far will the dollar rally continue. From an interesting insight from daily FX in interview with Sarah Walker, the 10518 level seems to be a key interesting FIB level resistance which therefore you would then see a significant pullback in some of t
  10. A brilliant trade of the week, EUR-$ about to break 10460. 
  11. Fed policy for 2017 falls under market spotlight With a US rate increase already expected the focus is on plans for the year ahead. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will hold its final rate-setting meeting before Donald Trump is due to enter the Oval Office. A quarter-point increase in the federal funds rate target range to 0.5-0.75 per cent has already been priced in by the markets, so the focus will be firmly on what happens to policy in 2017 and beyond. The key question will be whether the Republicans add fiscal fuel to an economy that is already near full employment, forcing the F
  12. We will just have to adapt to the new environment, we will have to wait and see what the FCA does and on what time scale.
  13. Fed Expected to Raise Interest Rates: What to Watch (WSJ) The central bank is expected to raise rates, and it also will release economic projections for the first time since the U.S. election Federal Reserve officials are likely to raise short-term interest rates when their two-day meeting concludes Wednesday, the only increase this year and just the second since June 2006. But what will they signal for the path of rates in 2017 and beyond? This will be the Fed’s first policy meeting since the election of Donald Trump, who has pledged tax cuts and new government spending—policies that coul
  14. USD Into FOMC: Sell The Fact – Barclays https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-fomc-sell-fact-barclays/
  15. As stated before i do think their is a significant probability that parity in relation the Euro Dollar is not going to come easy, even if Yellen states that repeated rate hikes are to follow soon after. We dont know what Trump really ends up doing and he could disappoint if he does not carry out his fiscal policy measures. If euro dollar does not break the resistance below 10520 then i think its safe to say that it will take an extreme event or bullish momentum on the dollar to this. Most if not all the price of a rate hike is already in, therefore once the FOMC is done, i do think you will se
  16. It is always the same, whenever any single business or company within an industry does something stupid, they automatically think every company is like that and this has happened over and over again in almost all industries. Regulation in general can always be helpful, but the problem becomes when it is extreme. And Casey that article below just summaries some of the clear ignorance and greed. Too many think trading it is as simple as 123. Your primary goal before investing or trading is risk management second is to make a profit. The problem is when you have certain individuals who have just
  17. I have commented on the FCA proposals on their website. I myself find the FCA's approach to this issue some what extreme and some lack of clarity of the pool of data they have collected that demonstrates that a high percentage of participants lose money. I do think its always a good idea to assess on an individual basis the appropriateness of leverage based products for each potential client, which IG does already and has got a significant amount of information and links to risk management. If i was to make a suggestion in regards to CFD's, in the tear of ticket area, it may possibly be an
  18. How high can US rates go in the Trump era? Some say scope for rises underestimated, but productivity problems overshadow economy After eight years in which interest rates in rich countries have kept close to all-time lows, a change of weather is in the air. Donald Trump’s election as US president and widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will nudge rates higher this week have made their mark on the markets. The big question is whether short-term pressures for higher US interest rates are strong enough to overturn long-term global forces that push borrowing costs ever lower
  19. Nice article from Gary Burton OPEC are the oil masters again There’s a certain push for Australian oilers including BHP today with a chain of announcements signalling Saudi Arabia is trying to lift oil prices above $60 a barrel, and perhaps closer to $70 a barrel. https://www.ig.com/uk/commodities-news/2016/12/11/opec-are-the-oil-masters-again-35728
  20. Citibank Weekly FX Insight (source CITI Group). Nice interesting article and insight to some of the G10 FX pairs. Note is last weeks publishing only (5 december to 9th). https://www.citibank.com.hk/global_docs/mobile/investment/pdf/fx_insight_e.pdf
  21. Hawkish Fed a potential speed bump for stock bulls (Reuters) Next week's Federal Reserve meeting and possible signals on the pace of rate hikes for next year could pose the biggest risk yet to the rally the U.S. stock market has seen since last month's presidential election. While investors have long anticipated the Fed will raise rates at the Dec. 13-14 meeting - in what would be its first such move in a year and second in nearly a decade - the worry for some stock investors is that the Fed takes a more aggressive stance on inflation and future hikes. Stocks have set a string of record hig
  22. Hi all be great to hear everyone's views on any security you are currently or wish to trade. Be good if you could post a thread which is either be fundamental/technical views or both. Just post it on the fundamental or technical page to help generate some discussion.
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