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DSchenk

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DSchenk last won the day on October 26

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  1. you can just pull this yourself via the API - that is if you know how
  2. Isn't this the old roulette "strategy" where you bet on red or black. Bet $1, lose $1. Bet $2, lose $2. Total Loss: $3 Bet $4, lose $4. Total Loss: $7 .... Bet $256, Lose $256. Total Loss: $511 Bet $512. Win $512. Total Win: $1 Works 100%, except when it doesn't and red comes out 50 times in a row, whilst you are on black
  3. I'm not so good with C# Are you using the IG API datafeed or something else entirely? I've built a few VBA applications using the IG API - didn't help me turning over a profit though
  4. Would it not make more sense and be much quicker if you backtest this, instead of forward testing? Who wants to wait til June 2021 to see the outcome ha And with backtesting you could easily go back to the 1950s, not just do 1 year I like what @jlz is doing there - what platform/tool you using for backtesting?
  5. Hey, who said we're buddies I'm just somehow seem to slip through the net of insults, probably cause I'm just popping into the forum once every couple of months, then going back undercover - doing the actual work lol
  6. Anyway, I think my decision is made. 1) Going back to UK market. Two reasons: a) More familiar with the market as I'm also an investor in the UK, so I roughly follow what's going on with the general market sentiment b) Daylight saving time is coming soon, meaning US market open is here where I live at 10.30pm at night (back one hour from 9.30pm). While trading from 9.30-10.30pm is reasonable, trading from 10.30-11.30pm is quite a stretch. While UK market open is around 3pm/4pm (with DST) which seems a better time 2) Identifying tickers with the following fundamentals - Either unprofitable or PE ratio > 20 - Book-to-market ratio well over at least 2 - Price up at least 100% in the past 12 months There won't be many tickers at a given time available which meet that criteria plus are eligible to trade with IG. Looking at a stock screener I see 36 tickers which are 100%+ up in the past 12 months right now on LSE. Probably about 5 are tradeable with IG. 3) Technical Entry - Established high of the current move - Trading on hourly and daily chart (opposed to 1min and 5min what I'm doing right now) - Entry on red daily candle making a new low vs previous day or bear flag or flat bottom break-out 4) Technical Exit - Stop-Loss at high of the current move + Spread - Taking profits at 1:1 risk/reward ratio - Moving stop-loss to BE when 25% of target price is reached I just exercised this through for BATM Advanced Communications. This one would've met the fundamental criteria since May 2020 and I count 7 trades which met the technical criteria since. The result (starting with a £1000 account and assuming I would've only traded this, which obviously wouldn't be correct as there were other similar opportunities in the market since then): £2048.30 in profits over 34 days invested in the market (out of 109 days in that timeframe, that's 31% in the market) 3x would've been out at BE, 4x in profit. Marked the 7 trades in the chart below. What do you think?
  7. Yep, something similar worked for me earlier this year in May/June. I was entering only 25% of my full position first, then added another 25% on the next signal and so on until being fully invested. What I also did was, every time I added another 25%, I moved the stop closer to my entry as well as the profit target. So for example first entry at 400, stop at 600, target at 200. (Short) Then second entry at e.g. 450, reducing stop to 500, target to 300. Third entry at 400 (when it is going down again), stop now at 466, target at 333. Last entry at let's say again 400, stop now at 450, target at 350 and I ride it. That way my £ risk/reward was always the same, I just moved it around depending on how much I scale in. It worked very well until it didn't and I lost half my account within 3 days in early July. Essentially, I had 3 open positions and all went simultaneously against me and took me out. Since I was searching for a slightly adapted system, that is less prone to taking half my account in a short period of time.
  8. Ha, and who did you remove from your view, sir?
  9. And last one for today: Fresnillo PE: 74 Book-to-Market: 4x Up 100% YTD High of the current Move: 1379 Current Price: 1343 Target Price: 1000 Trade Entry on the break of the Flag which is currently building Stop: 1407 (above the high of the current move) Target: 1010 Risk-Reward: 1:4 What do you think?
  10. The good thing is, with trades like this you only really need 1 to play out over 2 months and you already got your 50% account growth avg per month. Problem is, how to protect yourself from losers, but in theory I would move my stop-loss to break-even as soon as it trades outside my entry range.
  11. Another example: BATM Advanced Communications Fundamentals: PE Ratio: 162 Book-to-Market: 5x Up 213% YTD Fundamentals indicate this is about to go down Technicals already showing signs of a downwards pattern, making lower lows and lower highs Current Price: 116 High of the current move: 150.75 High of the latest push-up: 138.5 Target Price: 85 (former low, around 200EMA on the daily) Trade Go short on break of current flag it is forming Size: 35 (£1000 margin) Stop: 143 (above latest high) Target: 85 Risk:Reward: 1:1 What do you think?
  12. Let's take AO World for example. IG let's you go short there for now, so that barrier is removed. Fundamentals: - Not profitable - Trading on 18 times book value - Up 240% YTD Fundamentals indicating this is heading downwards rather soon, we just don't know when yet Current Price: 300 Target Price: 150 All time high was when they floated in 2014: 413.5 With a £1000 account you can go short 12 per point. So what would be the trade here now? Option 1 Go short straight away with full size. Stop 425 (above all time high) Target 150 (that's the 200EMA on the daily) Risk Reward: 1:1.4 Option 2 Wait for the first daily candle to make a new low vs the previous day and enter short then. Stop above the high of the current move (not all time high). Let's assume it would already do that on Monday, then the high of the current move would be 308 Stop 315 Target 150 Risk Reward: 1:22.6 But possibility of false break-out and then hitting stop afterwards. Option 3 Go short straight away with 10% of full size, then scale in further either as it goes higher towards that all time high or once it breaks lower (new low on the daily like in Option 2 described) Stop 425 Target 150 Risk Reward depending on how we can scale into this. Somewhere between 1:1.4 and 1:10 So, how would you play this?
  13. So let's break down what our options are here lads, ey (How Billy Butcher would say it - who else watched the show? ) 100% Technical Pros - Immediate results, cause the entry happens when the move happens - Risk can be reduced by not holding any positions over-night Cons - Difficult to consistently pull off, cause of lots of false/misleading/contrary signals - Trades may hit stop before playing out - Missing opportunities due to lack of speed on the entry (By the time you see the signal and get ready to enter/work out risk, target, entry size, the move has already happened and it's too late to enter) - Missing opportunities due to not scanner not picking up the signal - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have high momentum potential 100% Fundamental Pros - Trades can be prepared well in advance, which makes risk management easier. Entry, Stop and Target can be defined long before the trade actually takes place Cons - Trades may take a very long time to play out - Trades may first hit stop before actually playing out - Trades may not play out at all, because the market doesn't follow the fundamentals - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have totally rubbish fundamentals, esp. on the short side Fundamental, Technical Mix Pros - Trades can still be prepared well in advance, which makes risk management easier. - Entry is timed to a technical indicator, which makes trades play out quicker than 100% fundamental, but still slower than 100% technical Cons - Trades may still take a long time to play out - Trades may still first hit stop before actually playing out - Trades may not play out at all, because the market doesn't follow the fundamentals and the technical signal was a false signal - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have totally rubbish fundamentals, esp on the short side So looking at it like this, it makes me think the Fundamental, Technical Mix might be the way forward. Pretty much what Anton Kreil always says.
  14. In regards to funds, I agree. They won't be able to do 50% returns every month, not even close, because of a) they have way too much capital. You can't pull off any momentum trading strategies if you manage $100m+ funds b) Restrictions set by the industry as mentioned by others above c) Also they need to adhere to certain risk limiting factors. They can't just dump their $100m fund into one ticker one morning (even if it was possible from a volume perspective) to ride some upwards momentum, then get all out back in cash by 10am. The fund manager would get sacked by 12 noon if he would do that
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