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DSchenk

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Posts posted by DSchenk

  1. I just had this happened yesterday, but not with Royal Dutch Shell, but with BP.

    But Royal Dutch Shell I  seemed to have recieved the same dividend again, as I already received on 17/12.

    IG never stops surprising lol - how weird is that

    image.thumb.png.dc12adb5a1def1327ce0d3a8890c1b56.png

  2. Anyway, I think my decision is made.

    1) Going back to UK market. Two reasons:

    a) More familiar with the market as I'm also an investor in the UK, so I roughly follow what's going on with the general market sentiment

    b) Daylight saving time is coming soon, meaning US market open is here where I live at 10.30pm at night (back one hour from 9.30pm). While trading from 9.30-10.30pm is reasonable, trading from 10.30-11.30pm is quite a stretch. While UK market open is around 3pm/4pm (with DST) which seems a better time

    2) Identifying tickers with the following fundamentals

    - Either unprofitable or PE ratio > 20

    - Book-to-market ratio well over at least 2

    - Price up at least 100% in the past 12 months

    There won't be many tickers at a given time available which meet that criteria plus are eligible to trade with IG. Looking at a stock screener I see 36 tickers which are 100%+ up in the past 12 months right now on LSE. Probably about 5 are tradeable with IG.

    3) Technical Entry

    - Established high of the current move

    - Trading on hourly and daily chart (opposed to 1min and 5min what I'm doing right now)

    - Entry on red daily candle making a new low vs  previous day or bear flag or flat bottom break-out

    4) Technical Exit

    - Stop-Loss at high of the current move + Spread

    - Taking profits at 1:1 risk/reward ratio

    - Moving stop-loss to BE when 25% of target price is reached


    I just exercised this through for BATM Advanced Communications.
    This one would've met the fundamental criteria since May 2020 and I count 7 trades which met the technical criteria since.
    The result (starting with a £1000 account and assuming I would've only traded this, which obviously wouldn't be correct as there were other similar opportunities in the market since then):
    £2048.30 in profits over 34 days invested in the market (out of 109 days in that timeframe, that's 31% in the market)

    3x would've been out at BE, 4x in profit.

    image.thumb.png.58d035a0ae5933f7cd1828e9c1b3c15f.png

    Marked the 7 trades in the chart below.

    image.thumb.png.fa50e1b7d069b331bb519ac205077e61.png

     

    What do you think?

     

  3. 21 hours ago, jlz said:

    I always create chunks of the size that I am planning to risk and I keep sending portions of that size every time I am wrong. The result is a segregated entry into multiple levels in the way that if I was right the first time I let it run and if I wasn't I have more funds to try again. In one of your example you mentioned that you could use 12 points in a trade. I would divide the usual market range, simple highs and lows per day, by that number (12) and consider 1 as the current market level. I could try again 11 more times at multiple levels in case I am wrong in the first place.

    I separate those portions into distances that divide the usual volatility of the market into the numbers of chunks that I am able to send. This could be very familiar to Fibonacci grid traders, and at all times I never trade anything that would make the account pass 30% of its equity. 

    For me, creating some kind of a multi entry position is what made it to work, up to a point that I was able to remove indicators and ignore fundamentals. Since I am not able to prove myself right anytime in my analysis I am just not using anything else than pure risk management. 

    Yep, something similar worked for me earlier this year in May/June.

    I was entering only 25% of my full position first, then added another 25% on the next signal and so on until being fully invested. What I also did was, every time I added another 25%, I moved the stop closer to my entry as well as the profit target.

    So for example first entry at 400, stop at 600, target at 200. (Short)
    Then second entry at e.g. 450, reducing stop to 500, target to 300.
    Third entry at 400 (when it is going down again), stop now at 466, target at 333.
    Last entry at let's say again 400, stop now at 450, target at 350 and I ride it.
    That way my £ risk/reward was always the same, I just moved it around depending on how much I scale in.

    It worked very well until it didn't and I lost half my account within 3 days in early July. Essentially, I had 3 open positions and all went simultaneously against me and took me out.
    Since I was searching for a slightly adapted system, that is less prone to taking half my account in a short period of time. 

    • Like 1
  4. And last one for today: Fresnillo

    PE: 74

    Book-to-Market: 4x

    Up 100% YTD

     

    High of the current Move: 1379

    Current Price: 1343

    Target Price: 1000

     

    Trade

    Entry on the break of the Flag which is currently building

    Stop: 1407 (above the high of the current move)

    Target: 1010

    Risk-Reward: 1:4

     

    What do you think? 

     

    image.thumb.png.669386842388a47cec0f2942e8aa63da.png

     

     

     

  5. Another example: BATM Advanced Communications

    Fundamentals:

    PE Ratio: 162

    Book-to-Market: 5x

    Up 213% YTD

    Fundamentals indicate this is about to go down :D 

    Technicals already showing signs of a downwards pattern, making lower lows and lower highs

     

    Current Price: 116

    High of the current move: 150.75

    High of the latest push-up: 138.5

    Target Price: 85 (former low, around 200EMA on the daily)

     

    Trade

    Go short on break of current flag it is forming

    Size: 35 (£1000 margin)

    Stop: 143 (above latest high)

    Target: 85

    Risk:Reward: 1:1

     

    What do you think?

     

    image.thumb.png.54c5517037b11889eb3324525ece00f9.png

  6. Let's take AO World for example. IG let's you go short there for now, so that barrier is removed.

    Fundamentals:

    - Not profitable

    - Trading on 18 times book value

    - Up 240% YTD

    Fundamentals indicating this is heading downwards rather soon, we just don't know when yet :D 

    Current Price: 300

    Target Price: 150

    All time high was when they floated in 2014: 413.5

     

    With a £1000 account you can go short 12 per point.

    So what would be the trade here now?

    Option 1

    Go short straight away with full size.

    Stop 425 (above all time high)

    Target 150 (that's the 200EMA on the daily)

    Risk Reward: 1:1.4

    Option 2

    Wait for the first daily candle to make a new low vs the previous day and enter short then. Stop above the high of the current move (not all time high). Let's assume it would already do that on Monday, then the high of the current move would be 308

    Stop 315

    Target 150

    Risk Reward: 1:22.6

    But possibility of false break-out and then hitting stop afterwards.

     

    Option 3

    Go short straight away with 10% of full size, then scale in further either as it goes higher towards that all time high or once it breaks lower (new low on the daily like in Option 2 described)

    Stop 425

    Target 150

    Risk Reward depending on how we can scale into this. Somewhere between 1:1.4 and 1:10

     

    So, how would you play this?

    • Like 1
  7. So let's break down what our options are here lads, ey

    (How Billy Butcher would say it - who else watched the show? :D )

     

    100% Technical

    Pros

    - Immediate results, cause the entry happens when the move happens

    - Risk can be reduced by not holding any positions over-night

    Cons

    - Difficult to consistently pull off, cause of lots of false/misleading/contrary signals

    - Trades may hit stop before playing out

    - Missing opportunities due to lack of speed on the entry (By the time you see the signal and get ready to enter/work out risk, target, entry size, the move has already happened and it's too late to enter)

    - Missing opportunities due to not scanner not picking up the signal

    - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have high momentum potential

    100% Fundamental

    Pros

    - Trades can be prepared well in advance, which makes risk management easier. Entry, Stop and Target can be defined long before the trade actually takes place

    Cons

    - Trades may take a very long time to play out

    - Trades may first hit stop before actually playing out

    - Trades may not play out at all, because the market doesn't follow the fundamentals

    - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have totally rubbish fundamentals, esp. on the short side

    Fundamental, Technical Mix

    Pros

    - Trades can still be prepared well in advance, which makes risk management easier.

    - Entry is timed to a technical indicator, which makes trades play out quicker than 100% fundamental, but still slower than 100% technical

    Cons

     

    - Trades may still take a long time to play out

    - Trades may still first hit stop before actually playing out

    - Trades may not play out at all, because the market doesn't follow the fundamentals and the technical signal was a false signal

    - IG restricting a lot of tickers from trading which have totally rubbish fundamentals, esp on the short side

     

    So looking at it like this, it makes me think the Fundamental, Technical Mix might be the way forward. Pretty much what Anton Kreil always says.

    • Great! 1
  8. In regards to funds, I agree. They won't be able to do 50% returns every month, not even close, because of 

    a) they have way too much capital. You can't pull off any momentum trading strategies if you manage $100m+ funds

    b) Restrictions set by the industry as mentioned by others above

    c) Also they need to adhere to certain risk limiting factors. They can't just dump their $100m fund into one ticker one morning (even if it was possible from a volume perspective) to ride some upwards momentum, then get all out back in cash by 10am. The fund manager would get sacked by 12 noon if he would do that :D 

  9. 11 hours ago, jlz said:

    These guys claim to have a method that is strongly based on fundamentals.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_jCCnr85pc

    If you watch their videos their don't trade any time-frame smaller than the daily ticker. They go through company reports, forex driving macros, macro economics news and so on.

    Many people call them a fraud but they seem to be running the business for a long time. Who knows, maybe they are an example of how to do it. They are all pros with a long trading career, maybe what it takes to make fundamentals to work is to get hit and fail during years to understand them. 

    Yes, those guys Anton Kreil and his gang are great. All ex-pro trades at Goldman's etc

    They are doing 80% fundamentals, 20% technical trading style if I'm not mistaken.

    Everyone who says they are a scam just doesn't understand anything about the industry. Period.

    They are indeed one of main the reason, I'm thinking of trying the fundamental based trading system rather than looking 100% at technicals.

    • Like 2
  10. 5 hours ago, Bopperz said:

    Have you completely given up on technicals?

    Nope, not quite yet.

    5 hours ago, Bopperz said:

    The problem with fundamentals is the very long timescales

    That's the thing which is putting me off from even looking at it.

    Surely I could research now 10 companies, which in theory are massively overvalued.
    But only because they go bankrupt eventually, doesn't mean I can contain a short position over an extended period of time, esp. not when the price spikes up for literally no fundamental reason at all :D 

     

    Currently, thinking of going back to indices. Did a bit of trading indices last year in Jun-Sep or so, until @nit2wynitconvinced me to go back to equities :D 

  11. Yes, it's possible. That's called private equity.

    If you have at least 50k to invest, then you can participate in so called Seed rounds, where private companies sell shares to private as well as institutional investors (so called VC, Venture Capitalists).

    Once a firm has exhausted all their seed rounds, they typically do a Series A fund raising (and Series B/C), where they raise a few million $ before the big IPO, where you typically raise north of $100 million up to several billion $.

    Easier option is to go directly to a Venture Capitalist firm, give them your money and tell them to invest it in private equity. But again, need 50k+ at least, before they even start talking to you.

  12. In my trading career I've done Forex, UK Equities, Indices and at the moment on US Equities.

    What's left is Crypto and Options (as far as I'm aware).

    Not sure what to focus on next...

    I'm thinking either keep doing the US Equities just with yet another strategy. (Just which one?)

    Or going back to Indices, maybe I've learned something in US Equities which might help me there.

    Or try the fundamental trading on UK Equities.

    Not sure about Crypto and Options tbh. Anyone any good experience with that?

  13. Guess that depends when you start with your 3-year-period :)

    I would expect something between roughly -30% and +30%.

    Then the problem is, where you get those £500 a month from? Don't tell me I have to get a job first in order to do that :D 

    The goal should still be to make roughly 50% per month. 100k account, 50k profits. That's the gold discipline we're all aiming for

    • Like 1
    • Great! 2
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