DSchenk

Warren Buffett says he would guarantee 50% return per annum if he managed a $1m portfolio. With $100b that kind of returns are simply not possible As the kind of Anton Kreil dudes portfolio size is surely not larger than $1m, $10m at the max, returns of 25% surely are possible. The bigger problem is, if you only have $500-$2000 to start with, how to grow that to $1m. That's they ultimate key question. Cause there your annual returns need to be somewhere in the thousands, if not tens of thousands. Think Ross Cameron started with $570 and grew that to $300k or so in the first year of his trading challenge. That's 525,000 % right there. Key is to get the initial $500 as quick as possible to like $100k and then reduce risk from there and aim for slower growth.

Ah, sorry, I'm too German. We don't understand humour, certainly not English one

Ok, I've got some initial results from backtesting this strategy on FTSE 100. I was backtesting over 100,000 5min untits, that's the maximum PRT can do. It's a timeframe of approx. 1 year and a quarter. High Level Results are: Gain: 130% Winning trades: 60% So, promising results at first glance, but obviously way below expectations. In order for this to be a successful strategy, we would need a gain of something more in the area of 1200% over that timeframe. Not saying this strategy can't achieve this though, if we find a way to tweak it accordingly. Couple of issues to iron out: 1) In the first 3 months it doesn't seem to make any profits at all. Need to find out why this is the case and how the strategy can be tweaked. 2) Then between Nov 18 and Sep 19 the strategy seems to be largely flat as well. Need to investigate this as well 3) Position sizing is currently set as a constant, this needs to be turned into a formula to make the strategy scalable, but couldn't figure out so far how it's best to approach this 4) There are entire months where this strategy produces a loss - need to figure out why and how to avoid Btw, there are two parameters which I did let PRT optimise: 1) Target Profit: Result was that the TP level is optimal if it is set 10 points behind the mid level (50% level). So e.g. when entered long at the 25% level, then the price moves up and crosses the mid level and then makes another 10 points before profits are taken 2) Stop Loss. This is interesting. The optimisation concluded that the TP level is 65 points below the 0% level (or 65 points above the 100% level when shorting). This seems to be a large divergence, which makes me think the strategy itself needs further tweaking. Maybe taking high and low of previous day is not the optimal, but we need to build a range of previous x days and draw the fork over that. Will keep looking at this and update the thread accordingly.

Well the brokers obviously also have an interest to get as many noobs as possible to trade and lose all their money, so I get why they would facilitate such a move if you happen to be an influencer with a couple of thousand followers and promise to bring in hundreds of noobs per month, ready to lose it all. Next question would be: If someone plays this strategy, where do they get the knowledge to create a 30 hour trading course? Or is everything in that course simply also loads of ****? (I never purchased any of those courses, so can't tell)

Be careful with only looking at fundamentals, is what the video wants to tell, I guess Someone else once said (can't quite remember who - think it was a quant fund manager): The market can behave longer irrational than you have equity to be in it. Meaning, all the fundamentals point towards this company is to go bust, you go short, but the share price keeps rising until you receive your margin call and get pulled out of the trade. Afterwards the company goes bust. Consequently this means, timing is more important than getting the overall direction right. And that in return means, technical analysis is more important than fundamentals.

Watched that video yesterday night. While I am a fan of Anton Kreil's institute, I do think they are not teaching trading, but investing, even though they call themselves traders. They always talk about holding stuff for 1-3 months and have target returns of 25% per year. Lol, that's investing. Anton once said, they are using about 1:4 leverage, so that is still 100% account size growth per year, but still not enough to make a living out of it, unless you have at least £50k in equity. 25% growth per year for an investment account is considered very solid results, but for a trader surely that's what you want to make per month otherwise what's the point. Ricky from Techbud Solutions for example trades with a $100k account and aims for $2k per day, that's $40k per month or 40%. Of course he doesn't always hit the $2k and sometimes also loses, but surely he averages at 25% a month then approx.

So you're saying there are people out there who have "fake live accounts" where they can simply upload any equity, place trades where they enter and exit at any level they like and then show off their insane growth rates? Question I'm having: Where do they get all the money from to buy their lambos and stuff? And also is this not the most boring exercise in the world? Faking results and making youtube videos about it?

Why would you want to stop him? Don't see anyone better my miles around. You got to have someone a little insane int that seat - the job's crazy enough.

Using ProRealTime at the moment But also though first using the API. The backtest functionality of PRT is not too bad though, as you can run through variables up until 10,000 combinations. Currently running through different combinations of TP, SL and entry points

That's something also professional traders aka Anton Kreil always say. The question is, how would you approach a strategy which is based purely on macro economics? I also doubt you make more money with this approach, but yes you have probably less stress. As markets don't move in a straight line, but go up and down, the one who capitalises on each up and down turn should make more than the one who just holds through.

Yeah, the fork is not the main criteria here, it's just a helper to define entry and exit points. I'm currently backtesting different entry/exit points to see what works best (at least historically).

Hi everyone, so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle. Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon) First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows. What do you think of this approach?

Not got anything out of the market today either. Gonna look for new strategies, different assets, different timeframes, ... Any suggestions welcome. Also probably back to Demo for a while.

In: Classic gap-and-go set-up. Entry after initial drop. Get confirmation as not breaking below pivot and then again as breaking above VWAP Out: Probably would've sold on first 5min candle to make a new low, which would be around 22.6 at mR2. But then probably already covered profits earlier in that run because of fear of loosing it all in a huge drop again

Anyone traded this beast today? Could've risked £200 and made £600. And you don't even need huge margin. Sounds like something @nit2wynit would love to trade Although I don't know how large the spread was this morning between 8.00 and 8.30. Perfect entry would've been after the bounce off pivot and then break of VWAP at 17.0. Then exit around 25.0 or so

Thanks for the analysis @Caseynotes Should've avoided the 'market open whipsaw' clearly Not too sure yet about that Stochastic indicator. Why not just use an RSI instead? Seems to look similar to me, but RSI looks simpler with only one line

@Mercury Yeah, I started trading the NSADAQ from 14.30 recently after my ATR analysis. There clearly are some solid opportunities in there, but it turned out to be similar difficult to capture on those as with the FTSE so far. It seems to me I have to fundamentally change some parameter with my entries and stops, but haven't quite figured out what. I was once thinking about not using a stop at all and just wait for the price to eventually turn around and move towards my entry level again. For example if I was still holding my first position today, I would be in a profit right now, in fact I could've captured almost 20 points. Obvious problem with this strategy is, that this may work on 99 days and then the one day comes, where you just happen to hit the high/low of a trend and your account blows up

Cheers for the comms guys. It's time again for some heavy brainstorming how to crack this nut Looking at it now, there was this nice 36 point move from 9.00 to 9.20. Question is how to capture these moves and trade only these moves without losing everything on the ups and downs before and after... Loo

Back in the seat this morning, health is on the rise. Equity in account is falling steadily though. No clue how to trade this - might need to look for another strategy cause this doesn't seem to work out for me

Love that. Would prefer that curve every time vs the mostly flat curve of the average Joe going steadily from £0 to maybe £250k over a lifetime. Where's the excitement there?

No trades today Must have picked up @nit2wynit's Flu. Going bullish on my health first

Cheers for the feedback @burfordcraig Dissecting your points. Long Positions are good because the FTSE will never hit zero but has (in theory) unlimited upside. That only works with unlimited margin and unlimited time. As in practice the FTSE can drop 1000 points and your account gets wiped out. I agree in terms of long term investing though. Over the long term, markets tend to rise rather than fall, because we make progress as a society/human race. Allow for a big margin to absorb volatility. IG allow for 50p trades so if you don't have thousands on your account, consider smaller trade sizes That's the strategy of having a loose stop-loss rather than a tight one, I guess? Not sure what the strategy would be in that case as would it not be better to cut losses quickly and then just re-enter at a later point once we see a reversal? Long Positions are good because you can scoop up easy points when the FTSE goes ex-dividend every Wednesday and this will off-set fees charged for positions held overnight. Never heard of this one. Can you explain? Does it mean if I take a long position Tuesday night and hold until Wednesday I get some easy points? Keep an eye on price movement ranges and support/resistance levels as you may get caught behind a major level of resistance. agree with that Every time you close a position in loss, you reduce your account size which inhibits your ability to trade (see point 2). Makes sense, although still better to close at a small loss than hold until the account blows up, I guess?

Yeah, I was mirroring Ross search criteria. Appreciate can be optimised. Pretty stuck at the moment here - might switch to Demo account for a while...

Needed to do that as well

AAPL impressive, but still not as good as an index. Quantity of 0.06 for £272 margin. Move from 9 am to 10 am was 200 points. That's £12. FTSE 100. Qty of 0.7 for £250 margin. Move from 8am to 9 am was 32 points. That's £22. Whereas with AAPL you have the problem to find out in advance that such a move happens and with the index it happens every day. I guess you want to say, you don't need to limit to stocks below $10. But I get why Ross Cameron doesn't trade those stocks, cause on a move like this he would've only made £100 with £10k worth of shares.