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trade247

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Posts posted by trade247

  1. 20 hours ago, ChrisN said:

     Average time from inversion to recession is quoted at 17 months. If that's right then it puts it late 2020 possibly early 21. 

    Question, is that specifically referring to the turning point, or the 'technical' recession value after the technical 20% drop?

    45 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

    Is there any data or credible source that proves that using EWT and Fibonacci in your trading strategy increases your chances of a successful trade or improves the odds and probability of you making more / higher profits than not using them?

    Arguably the only 'data' there is on the success of trading strategies is to buy a low cost diversified index tracker and compound your divs. Trading is about the intellectual stimulus about beating the market.

    • Like 1
  2. On 25/07/2019 at 08:41, tocretpa said:
    • Put a warning on the IG market screener that says it can be incorrect/is broken
    • Fix the IG market screener (dividend yields and return on investment can be wrong) (some companies are missing) (market cap can be wrong or at least different from trading view)

    where do you get the data @JamesIG

  3. Received this last night from Blonde Money which I would recommend people check out. 

    1. The composition of the new Cabinet in terms of their Brexit ideology is much closer to Theresa May’s final Cabinet than shrieking headlines suggest.
    2. If we take our Brexit ratings, which run from -15 for the most pro-Remain MP to +15 for the most pro-Leave, the composition of both is relatively similar.

      5fe5f37d-15c0-4319-bb6a-6e383dce5b25.png
       
    • Mean: 2.6 for Boris, 2.0 for Theresa
    • Median: 2.0 for Boris, 1.0 for Theresa
    • Standard deviation: 5.2 for Boris, 5.4 for Theresa
       
    1. It looks violent because it’s being described as a reshuffle. It isn’t. It’s an entirely new administration. Usually it happens with a change of party, but not always. When the Blair Cabinet switched to the Brown Cabinet, only half survived, and only 1 remained in the same job
       
    2. So why does it feel like a more pro-Brexit Cabinet? Three reasons:
      1. The people in the three top jobs of Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary, and Home Secretary: Raab and Patel are clearly much more hardline Brexiteers than Hammond and Hunt. Here’s the same chart as above but just for the main jobs:
        1. a87c4e18-3d5e-41aa-8d20-a1685bc9f5cb.png
        2. The Cabinet includes very noisy Brexiteers, such as Rees-Mogg, and the return of Brexiteers who had quit over May’s Deal, such as McVey
        3. Those joining the Cabinet are only doing so because Boris forced them to back his explicit commitment to No Deal if he can’t get a renegotiation.
           
    3. This final point is the key.
    4. Theresa and Boris inherit the same spread of Brexit ideologies across their party. It’s impossible to please them all. If you occupy the 50% in the middle, then the 25% on either side can both form wrecking minorities against you.
    1. As a minority government, that’s a recipe for stalemate, as we have seen.
    1. Theresa, sitting neutrally in the middle, decided to try to run from one side to the other in an attempt to chip away at them and convert them to her deal.
      1. “Fear No Brexit!” she shouted to the ERG.
      2. “Fear No Deal!” she warned the Remainers.
      3. That’s how she ended up with 34 Conservatives failing to back her deal at the third time of asking, comprised of 28 Brexiteer Spartans but also 6 People’s Vote Remainers.
         
    2. Boris has a new strategy. He is picking a side.
    3. That changes the 50% / 25% / 25% split that left Theresa in trouble. Instead, he grabs 75%.
      1. By bringing Brexiteers on board, they have skin in the game. He’s offering them what they want: either a renegotiated deal with no backstop, or No Deal at all.
      2. That forces the Remainers into an even more extreme decision: To stop this, bring down the government and/or revoke Article 50. In other words, vote to lose your power.
      3. That extreme behaviour also forces the hands of the Brexiteers: If you don’t back my plans, which are everything you wanted, you run the risk of looking petulant and opening the door back to the Remainers.
    1. Yes, this is “Fear No Brexit” and “Fear No Deal” but tactically organised much better.
      1. By picking a side, Boris can use each extreme as a weapon against the other, rather than being consumed under the weight of both at once.
      2. This will naturally make him look combative and deliberately divisive.
      3. But ironically it could ultimately deliver a Deal.
      4. If it doesn’t, it’s nicely laid out to be the fault of someone else other than him.
    1. Next, it’s on to the EU.
    1. And guess what, if they don’t make a concession, then it will be their fault too. Here’s the key section of his speech to Parliament today:

    ‘I would prefer us to leave the EU with a deal. I would much prefer it. I believe that is still possible even at this late stage and I will work flat out to make it happen. But certain things need to be clear.

    The Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by my predecessor has been three times rejected by this House.  Its terms are unacceptable to this Parliament and to this country.  No country that values its independence and indeed its self-respect could agree to a Treaty which signed away our economic independence and self-government as this backstop does. A time limit is not enough.  If an agreement is to be reached it must be clearly understood that the way to the deal goes by way of the abolition of the backstop.

    For our part we are ready to negotiate in good faith an alternative, with provisions to ensure that the Irish border issues are dealt with where they should always have been: in the negotiations on the future agreement between the UK and the EU.

    I do not accept the argument that says that these issues can only be solved by all or part of the UK remaining in the customs union or in the single market. The evidence is that other arrangements are perfectly possible, and are also perfectly compatible with the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement, to which we are of course steadfastly committed.

    I, my team, and my Rt Hon Friend the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union are ready to meet and to talk on this basis to the Commission or other EU colleagues whenever they are ready to do so.

    1. That final paragraph suggests he’s not going to rush over to the EU. He’s going to make them come to him, when they’re ready
    1. While they wait? Tick Tock goes the Brexit Clock…. All the way down to No Deal. This threat should bring them to the negotiating table. 
    • Like 1
    • Great! 1
  4. 3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

    A poor poor day today.  Statistical Correctness right on the money.

    11 trades.  8 the wrong way.  -£48.  The weeks gains gone in 2 hours.  FTSE and Bent Crude.

    Time for a break.

    whats the average time you hold a trade for? 

  5. "...an inverting yield curve and weak June manufacturing data across the globe have divided analysts on whether or not a pullback is due. DWS forecasts a “moderate cooling of economic activity”, but JPMorgan sees an 8% upside to the S&P 500 if a trade deal is agreed with China."

     

    knowing trump all this rhetoric is just hot air.

    • Like 1
    • Great! 1
    • Nike’s earnings missed expectations for the first time since 2012. The sneaker giant’s earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates, coming in at $0.62 for the quarter and $2.49 for the year, compared to the $0.66 and $2.55 expected, respectively. Analysts remain bullish on the stock, though, with Morgan Stanley’s Lauren Cassel saying ‘NKE remains our top pick’. 
    • Uber hits an all-time high. On Friday, the ride-hailing platform’s shares closed at $46.38, up 7% from Thursday’s open. The rally, which marks the first time Uber’s share price has closed above its IPO price of $45, followed news that the company plans to expand its services into West Africa. It remains to be seen if Uber can continue this momentum; its Q1 results, released on 3 June, showed net losses had more than doubled from $478m in 2018 to $1.01bn. 
  6. Interesting detailed reply @Mercury - thanks. 

    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    As others (and previously I too) have suggested, this idea of disruption in the sense of "tearing down the big banks and big government influence over the financial system is the stuff of anarchic dreams.

    absolutely agree. Thats a wishful ideology, however i do think there is serious opportunity to make do with a **** ton of inefficient systems, companies and processes. 'Middle men' if you will. The big four need to be very worried in my opinion, along with all these ridiculous institutions which charge an arm and a leg for verification of facts. (accounting firms, banks, mortgage providers, home ownership stuff, deeds). 

    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    Invest in blockchain technology not in crypto currency is my point but timing is crucial, as with all things.

    Also true to some extent long term, however where are we at the moment? wouldn't you say that my initial points above (which don't focus on any sort of ideology but rather on market dynamics, current sentiment, and increase in adoption) are correct? Would be interested in the rebuttal, if you believe there is one, to these very specific points.

    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    Interestingly enough mobile was more consumer led (but still pushed by mainstream companies - I was working at Disney at this time and saw it from the coal face) but I don't see a consumer led driver with Crypto, it will have to be the other way around.  The key to any medium of barter is trust.  Do you think sufficient people trust Crypto for it to replace Fiat currency?  What would that take and how long?

    Interesting! What were you doing at Disney? (And side note - thoughts on recent merger?) 

    Crypto is two sided. One side is the cryptographic and mathematical certainty which it provides - in theory you shouldn't need 'trust'. Do people however understand? No. Do people trust the other third party providers who offer wallets etc? No.  How long will it take? Unknown, however putting £1000 (fictitious value) in now for a potential 10x (if not more) return in 5 years is a nice risk reward ratio which I'd be willing to take with x% of my savings. 

    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    I don't disagree with any of your points re what moves bitcoin except to say that the overall driver is sentiment, in this case it is $$$$$.  That is why people keep talking about halving events and $50k, $100k valuations.  This is a mania to me, it is not unlike the first internet bubble but very different from the second tech wave.

    Ahhhh - sorry was replying as i went - think this answers my point above - will leave it as is tho. 

    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    Regarding trading Crypto, I don't, at all, and never will.  I track it as a contrarian indicator for the general sentiment malaise I see in the market place.  The greater the Hyperbola the more Bearish I become.  Warren Buffett said, only invest in what you know.  He has broken his own rule of late, investing in Amazon...  Is that the edge of the cliff I see before me..?

    Agree with the green - unsure on the red. A contrarian indicator to the wider market or specifically Bitcoin? If the latter isn't this just a counter trend concept? Also doesn't it follow that

    • if you're not interested in trading one way or the other its because you don't have a solid enough conviction either way (even if this is because you've taken the sensible decision to not on things you're not 100% with)
    • then you also shouldn't use it as an indicator on anything. Premise is the 'if you dont put your money where your mouth is' on the trade concept, then you wouldn't / shouldn't believe in it as an indicator either? 
    17 hours ago, Mercury said:

    Doesn't mean I can't have an opinion though right?  Surely at least one dissenting voice is useful as a counter balance.  Might be good to hear from a few more though.

    absolutely! it's why we're all on a forum rather than just reading an article :) debate and objection is welcome! 

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