trade247
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Posts posted by trade247
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Get this via email from another broker but thought it was a good copy/paste. Thought it was worth a share and could give a few trade ideas. Also should we get a 'quick trade ideas' section running again? Or maybe @JamesIG can sort a competition or something based on new trade ideas?
- Optimism is fading as the US’s power struggle with China and Iran continues. By Wednesday morning, markets across the globe were feeling deflated as investors signalled a lack of appetite for the current level of political risk. In the US, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed on Tuesday down 0.6%, 1.1% and 1.8% respectively since the start of the week, while China’s Shanghai Composite had dropped 1.6% by its close on Wednesday. In Europe, the picture is slightly better, with the FTSE 100 remaining flat overall. Germany’s DAX is one of the few major markets to post a positive result: on Wednesday morning it spiked to €12,290.46, up 0.13% from the start of the week.
- Disney shares to enter new magical era? Some analysts view the stock’s latest holding pattern as a signal to buy, anticipating a further breakout after the company’s shares reached a record-high of $143 last week. Meanwhile, the company’s streaming strategy is gaining steam as Hulu, which Disney owns 60% of, has racked up 3.8m US subscribers in the year to date – outpacing competitor Netflix. Can Disney shares retest last week's all-time high?
- Micron surprises investors with latest results. Shares rallied as much as 10% in after-hours trading after the chipmaker delivered adjusted EPS of $1.05 and revenues of $4.79bn last quarter – both exceeding consensus forecasts (although still representing a 39% year-on-year revenue drop). Overall, its shares are down 25.7% since its year-to-date high of $43.99 and 0.2% since the start of the year. Some analysts now view Micron as a buy opportunity – with BAML saying they see value in the company’s low valuation.
- UK high streets still have their champions. While the high-profile turnaround struggles of Debenhams and New Look have been well-documented of late, stocks in sectors like sports retail and value apparel are bucking the trend with strong year-to-date growth. The 3 stocks bucking UK retail's spiralling decline.
- Match Group enters buying territory. After a dip during the latter half of last week, the parent of dating app Tinder rebounded sharply, rising 7% to 71.48 through Monday. That puts the stock 5% below its flat-base buy point of $75.38, according to Investor’s Business Daily. Match’s stock has had a meteoric 58% rise year-to-date, powered by strong metrics around the Tinder app’s usage and plans to tap Asia’s legion of smartphone users.
- FedEx reports estimates-beating results. On Tuesday, FedEx announced earnings of $5.01 per share based on revenues of $17.81bn, beating consensus EPS estimates by $0.20. The results do not seem to be enough to reverse the logistics company’s share price trajectory, though, which continued to fall in after-hours trading. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that FedEx had been slashing prices to support its Express service – which also cut ties with Amazon earlier this month – sending the share value down 4.9% by Tuesday’s close.
- Evercore switches tune on Spotify. Evercore ISI analysts downgraded the Swedish music streaming company from in-line to underperform, cutting its price target by $15 to $110, citing scepticism over the ability to meet Wall Street estimates. Spotify’s stock closed down 1% to $145.69 on Monday. Also on Monday Spotify was revealed to have been exaggerating the amount of “app tax” it pays on Apple’s App Store; Spotify’s CEO Daniel Ek has complained that Apple requires Spotify to pay a 30% tax on purchases made through Apple’s payment system; Apple responded by saying Spotify has never paid more than 15%.
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Yes! Also, what are you doing regarding new cryptos and new pairs? How are IG going to stand out from the rest?
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are those about 11.2? to 15K?
11.2 also supported by Jan '18 levels.
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Interesting point of view @Mercury - however I think the analogy is slightly tenuous. Arguably bitcoin and other blockchains such as ethereum et al, is the same as investing in the TCP/IP of the internet boom. This isn't like investing in pets.com - this is like investing in the underlying framework and protocol of the internet itself.
Ordinary people aren't using crypto - also true, however you can't deny that adoption and integration isn't growing exponentially. Hardly anyone was using computers or the internet when you had to type command lines rather than use a GUI. Adoption takes time, but given the number of invested actors and the current trajectory it'll happen at some point.
People can also buy at 0.00000001 BTC so to think it's a whole product isn't really the point. You often hear the saying 'if you don't believe in bitcoin, it's likely that you don't really understand bitcoin'. Whilst overly offensive, I do see why people say that.
I think a lot of these propositions also fail to miss the point of what we're talking about here. They're all going off at an angle ... we're not arguing "Bitcoin is the next store of value / replacement to USD" blah blah blah. What I'm saying is this is what moves bitcoin price.
If you're a trader, and a technical trader at that (I never really see you post fundamentals nearly as much as technical analysis), does it matter what the asset is? Just it's price, it's price action, and it's conformity to your models?
Whats your Elliot wave / technical view? And whats your conviction? Have you places a short if you think it's going short?
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7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
BTC at 'fair value' according to this pricing model;
you're right - correlation of two unrelated things is entirely accurate way to judge value.
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Thought I'd do a little copy past from one of my earlier posts given we're hitting some recent highs and seeing a significant rally in 2019. As I said this draws on a previous post I made on the bitcoin 500MA post here.
What moves the price of Bitcoin?
- It is a truly truly truly inelastic asset. When gold goes up, people start producing more. When oil tanks, people don't pump as much. Even housing and infrastructure will be able to scale up or down depending on demand. Crypto however has a fixed amount being created which is mathematically restrained and can't be altered. When demand shifts people will gobble up the inelastic asset and supply demand curves will react accordingly. UPDATE: still think this is very relevant.
- Liquidity is thin. Honestly - don't just take my word for it - have a look at the global volumes. All it takes is a $100,000 dollars odd and you can move the price of some of these assets a hundred dollars or so. Thin liquidity means that prices can move very quickly either way. At the moment we are in a downward trend, but as soon as that turns and people jump on the bandwagon again ... well, we've seen it happen before. UPDATE: Not as much as prices are higher so the same amount of USD value won't hit the exchanges in the same way, liquidity is better in OTC venues which is where the majority of Crypto switches hands, exchanges have better order types and order routing these days as well. Lots of 'risk off' groups as well - algo V algo buying and selling giving false liquidity. Still, look at the book. Thin-o-saurus-rex.
- Hold. Become rich. Simple. EVERYONE knows about a mate, or a mate of a mate, or at the very least an article somewhere talking about buying crypto, holding onto it, and becoming rich. That's the way things are. It's happened over the last ten years and now the world has it in it's psyche that it's fact. Those who hold wont sell, whilst those on the sidelines are just waiting to get in. UPDATE: still the case, if not even more so.
- Bitcoin halving event in 2020. Over the last two halving events BTC prices have doubled. Again, this is all we have to go on, but people think that it's happened in the past so it's sure to happen in the future. Wait for it ... we'll see parabolic once more. UPDATE: was early on this one - but it'll come and i think we're heading for 50k BTC.
- ETF city. People want it. It's coming. It's just a matter of time. UPDATE: this has happened to some extent in certain markets. BTC values soared. ETH is looking for the same - futures and ETFs are argubly still on the cards because exchanges and ETF providers are all private or listed these days and need to either keep an eye on share holder value and capital growth. They can either - a) increase prices (tough), b) increase flow (tough), c) add new asset types to create new revenue streams (easiest of the three).
What are your thoughts? Lets get a thread going...
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On 21/06/2019 at 10:22, Mercury said:
Oh and in my lead scenarios is also Bitcoin to top out at key resistance and fall away sharply to at least close 2 major price gaps. I believe the Crypto resurgence is linked to the overall Fed driven buoyancy (call it greed, complacency, fantasy whatever...) and may fall first as an indicator of things to come.
💀🤯
interesting view on this. I've always thought that cryptos are completely unrelated to other asset types which is why they're so difficult to price. Everything else has the inter-connectivity between themselves (Fed IR effect USD 'value', which knocks on to USD denominated assets, which leads into equities, re-positioning etc) but always thought crypto is a world unto its own. Linked to cost of production - electricity, CPU costs etc.
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ahhh the power of thin liquidity.
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Looking at the ratio things need to change for the ETHBTC ratio to hold at 260 SATs. ETH is currently well under performing. At the 400 level you see at the peak, assuming BTC current price, ETH would be looking at 500.
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28 minutes ago, Mercury said:
PS: there is just one thing, what if US large Caps fail to make fresh all time highs...?
☠️
are they not already tho?
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Which means if you bought at any time other than those 87 days in the 10 year history, you'd be making money.
BTC $50k within 18 months. Whoop whoop. Set your alerts.
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23 hours ago, backwardation said:
@cryptotrader Out of curiosity are you using 13 and 20 periods or are you changing the standard deviation?
change SDev
you can click the numbers in bottom left of chart to do this.
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
I saw this from Crypto_Lord yesterday that made me laugh at first, then scratch my head ... (3 months).
i don't get it.
How is there any basis in that price action?
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really flirting heavily with that 8k mark but last 5 sessions isn't holding.
turning point, or a little consolidation before the next leg up?
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Looking like a good technical change happening right now with ETH blasting through it's 200 day EMA and no sitting happily above all averages with some good volume going through. Still lagging on the differential though so after this recent BTC rally we may see some good flows back into the runners up. I'd be a buyer of ETH at this time.
Volumes in April back to those highs which we haven't really seen since the beginning of the year.
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Bitcoin up nearly 150% in 150 days ....
what a time to be alive.
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looking forward to what crypto brings over the next 18 months.
potential for some parabolic moves.
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An interesting read and an even more interesting website. No advertising as far as I can see (don't think I have an ad blocker) and well written articles from a number of authors with citations.... almost unheard of!
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interesting historical references and nice post. Value that a lot - and I'm not just saying that because I agree with what you're saying!
Welcome to the forum. Hopefully we'll see some more of this going forwards.
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For those (like me) who don't know the ins and outs these links may be useful place to start
http://materials-risk.com/platinum-prices-the-top-10-most-important-drivers/
https://www.sbcgold.com/investing-101/key-factors-influence-platinum-prices/
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Some other interesting charts and a link which really sums it all up.... The question is: will this actually happen? Whats the risk reward ratio of it happening? Place your bets all...
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Back after a long break - howd'y folks!
Yes! I totally agree with this on casey and good post. I like this part a lot "Testing also tells you what doesn't work--and that can lead to a deeper understanding of hidden edges. Sadly, there are many traders who insist that they will succeed in their trading through sheer passion and willpower."
Randomness is such a weird thing for humans, when what you REALLY need to succeed is consistency. It's tough because we're not robots but it's needed.
Think about saving. You're not going to get anywhere long term by saving £10. £20, £50 a day randomly but then spending random amounts of cash here and there. You'll be far better to know your out goings, and make consistent non-random savings each day.
Think about the gym. Randomness gets you no where. Consistency is the key and the way you know how to train better / more efficiently / hit your targets.
Same goes for trading.
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Like that new chart view withthe smaller one in bottomright. Good insight.
Trump at it again 😂
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Bitcoin halving event
in Cryptocurrency and Blockchain
Posted
appreciated thanking you