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Posts posted by zala

  1. I am currently looking at Swedbank AB stock, which has a margin of 10%. 
    The current share price is at 140 SEK.

    D = n x C x i / 365 
    n=amount of stocks,
    c=closing price
    i=market rate +-2.5%
    is the formula that IG uses, with 360 being the divisor for markets that are not British, South African or Singaporian.

    So if wanted to loan a 1000 shares, the daily interest would be;

    1000*140*2.5%-(0.5%*)/360= 7.78 SEK/day?

    Is my calculation correct, or am I wrong when it comes to the market rate?
    Is it STIBOR I should use, the 12 month or how do you calculate this exactly?


  2. On 10/03/2019 at 15:07, Caseynotes said:

    @zala, in order to sell to open you must first be able to borrow the asset. What the 'you cannot sell this market to open' message means is that IG can't find anyone who will allow you to borrow it in the first place.

    A similar message you may see is 'this market is unborrowable', meaning there is no liquidity to lend the asset to you for you to open a short (sell) trade.

    Yes, I found their excel-spreadsheet marking which stocks are possible to short and those not.
    However I still don't get why I sometimes get "order rejected" on stocks that are both longable and shortable.

    Any ideas?

  3. 1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

    If one looks at London Wheat then it looks like an attractive short. New York Cocoa, Soybean Meal and Chicago Wheat also look as if there are shorting opportunities.

    The charts below will show one thing in common they are all trading below the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages.





    I took a quick short in wheat on Monday I believe. I did purely out of fundamental reasons as the USDA reported a larger harvest.

    Quickly exited the trade though as I couldn't see anymore down-movement. 

  4. 5 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

    @zala, I can see why it would remind you of this.

    Now think what if the very people whose stop losses were being triggered after holding a long position are the same people who short to trigger the next move down and the subsequent stop losses. What if this is pre-planned? What if this behaviour is to help maximise profits for these people who may be speculators both on the uptrend and downtrend?

    Add to the mix not necessarily individual traders but institutional positions and capital. Then add 'algo' trading where machines are executing such trades based on a set of parameters. Then one could begin to see how such sharp moves down could occur in such a short space of time without any fundamental news to support it.

    FX-markets are manipulated on daily basis via stop-hunting. Institutions drive prices higher or lower depending on how much orders they need to fill for their own needs as the magnitude of the contracts they possess or need to acquire is too large, and the bigger chunks are around certain price levels.

    So institutional traders do manipulate them daily due to their large volume. A friend of mine sits at the AEX directly, and could move crude-oil with 5-7 contracts and make it move 3-4 ticks.

    Eventually they threatened him with calling the SEC etc.

    The bigger boys seldomly experience these type of repercussions.


  5. 1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

    @zala, one assumes that there was a lot of speculative money in Carbon Emissions. This may be a reason why you cannot find any fundamental news to support or explain the drop. 

    I think one must hold their short position until there is a clear exhaustion of downward movement or clear trend reversal back to the long side. 

    Also what happens when speculators start to close their positions is that it triggers stop losses. The speculators then as a result start shorting. This again triggers more stop losses. This effect amplifies the drop and the chart clearly shows a sharp correction. It may continue tomorrow and the days after as more shorts trigger more stop losses which encourage those very same people to short as well. 

    Reminds me of Soros theory of reflexivity

  6. I got hurt by it today, but reversed it and shorted it.
    Found 0 fundamental news as to why it dropped (when it was happening, now it's a different story*).

    I'll be more careful trading markets that I know very little off.
    Incredible that a Norweigan trader got wiped out apparently.

  7. 3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    @zala,  just to add, Ole Hansen not only gives regular crop condition updates on twitter but also puts out webinars on all commodities giving insight to short term potential moves. He is chief commodities analysis at Saxo Bank so well worth finding him and his webinars on their web site.   

    Thank you, i'll look into him further.

    I forgot to mention that I look at COT-data for each asset class too, especially commodities.
    But are there any summarizes for important reports/indicators to look at?

    I am really aiming to create a structure around the vastness of the information out there.
    Your crop chart is excellent.

    Trading indices my structure looks something like this;

    1. Are we in earnings-season, January, April, July, October? If not, markets react more on geopolitical developments and on macroeconomic data. If yes, then its more fundamentally oriented and surrounds EPS.

    2. Economic calendar, and the reading of the ViX. A higher volatility environment means a lot of news is hitting the markets, and thus wider stops. A lower ViX means that the markets are trending upwards.  I usually check tradingeconomics.com for this.

    3. Geopolitical developments. Elections, regulatory changes, and black-swan-events etc are used by checking Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times e.g. These are often more predominant factors that weigh on markets when there is very little fundamental news.

    That is a rough picture of how I trade.
    Currently I have ventured into commodities as indices show little trending movements due to the uncertainty with the trade wars.

    I however do not have the framework as I do in trading indices when it comes to commodities, so all information is quite new and I am constantly trying to sort out and determine what is important and what isn't.


    • Like 1

  8. 6 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

    @zala, have a look at some of my threads and posts in the Commodities section if you are interested. You will see that most of my posts within the threads are based around price action and the behaviour of the asset price. I do look at fundamentals in the sense of understanding why the asset price is moving the way it is. What is the reason behind the move and what story the price action is trying to tell.

    I think if you just pick a few commodities that really interest you in terms of trading. Don't pick too many but just a couple of even one. Then just follow the price action daily. Follow it on your phone, follow it at home on your desktop. Follow it in the lounge on your tablet. 

    TrendFollower Tip: Identify a commodity which breakouts to the upside to keep things nice and simple. Maybe it has gone above its 20 day moving average. Look for one that you can trade with the trend and that the balance of probability and odds of success are in your favour. At the same time research online to see why the move is occurring. Start of with a small allocation of capital to the trade. Don't worry about making a loss or failing. Get a feel and live and breathe the commodity you are trading. Remember set a stop loss so you know your exit price and maximum loss before you even enter the trade. Once in profit then set a trailing stop. Do not exit unless there is a clear trend reversal. If the price keeps going up then think about adding to your position. This is the best learning. If the trade fails and you make a loss then learn why you think the trade went against you? What could you have done differently. If you cannot identify a trade then do not enter open a position. Wait patiently until a trend emerges in a commodity that you feel comfortable trading. 


    I am an avid reader of your threads as you seem to know your stuff. However, I am way more fundamentally oriented and use volatility based stops as an e.g. and fundamentals for entries of specific asset classes.

    Usually I always check tradingeconomics.com for trading macroeconomical/fundamental indicators as to gauge how the economies are doing for the underlying assets that I trade, in this case usually indices such as the SP500.

    I follow the inbuilt Reuters feed that IG added into the new platform - an excellent feature and my compliments to the development team that it added them.

    My aim is to try to get a top-down view of commodities markets, with preferably a site where I can see - all- the important fundamental parameters/indicators for commodities, like tradingeconomics.com but for commodities.

    The inbuilt feed provides live updates, but it'd be very nice to have it visually displayable how reports change from date to date like it is shown in tradingeconomics.com.

    @Caseynotes suggestions are excellent, and it is exactly for that type of information I am looking for. 
    Currently I am in the dark as to what indicators are the most important fundamentally for various commodities whereas I am very well versed when it comes to indices.


    • Thanks 1

  9. 8 hours ago, TrendFollower said:


    How much do you pay for Eikon?
    Is it much more convenient to have everything in one place compared to having it all scattered across sites on the web?

    I use Bloomberg, Reuters, FT etc too, but I've always wondered exactly how much beneficial it is just to have a platform such as Eikon?

  10. 1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

    So that call went wrong very quickly. Dax immediately dropped to challenge and break support on the London open and is now in the middle of a congestion zone the bottom of which is around 12290. Not dull at all but not clear what it's going to do from here.


    I got stopped out yesterday at the SP500 after going long, I re-entered now.

    Given the political news oriented around the tariffs, and the positive sentiment on a Canadian deal and solid fundamentals in the U.S. I only trade long, and enter long positions when the VIX shoots higher.

    DAX and the E.U. is a different beast when it comes to GDP growth versus the U.S. with core inflation at 1%.

    • Like 1

  11. 10 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

    I do hope those who have been following this thread have been shorting Lumber.

    If the aim is to make money and to make as much profit as possible then one must have an open mind. One must not get bogged down with traditional assets or what I call 'sexy' trades. Lumber may not be the most exciting sounding trade but if you look at the trend upwards and now the downtrend in play then it has given you plenty of opportunity if you were following trend following principles to go long and profit and now go short and profit. 

    Add leverage into the bowl and you get a nice profit mixture.?

    I am interested in what news-sources you follow to get the fundamental data that you use?

    Trading index-futures such as the SP500 i use tradingeconomics.com, but haven't been able to find an equally matching source for commodities and their market indicators.

  12. Dear @NadelinaIG.

    Guaranteed trailing stops serve the purpose of protecting one's capital in terms of trading on a swing-term basis.
    It prevents unpredictable market gaps that could erase substantial gains.

    Options for both trailing-stop-limit orders and guaranteed-trailing-stop-limit orders should exist as it increases the universe of possibilities in terms of executing proper risk management.

    • Like 2