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Everything posted by Ozquant

  1. Given 3 of the top 5 largest US stocks reported at close some volatility is a given no doubt
  2. FANGs reported last week July '20 and NQ roared almost 20% in the following 5 weeks . Outside the bounces of march '20 covid lows and Xmas '18 this aug'21 rally is the best 5 week nasdaq rally since 2009 lows Markets have no memory so it means little 12 months on .
  3. Broken short term trend since mid may looking for pullback towards medium term trend . FANGs type stocks reporting next week should make things interesting .
  4. No Absolutes as previously stated , carry on . 🤐
  5. Most daytraders just have gambling problems/addiction . If when you sit down at your platform and are in a trade within minutes chances are you fall into this category . You need setups that provide an edge , an empirically proven systematic edge with a positive expectancy , Many times this 'edge ' may take a few hours to trigger . Patience is needed to wait for the' right ' moment and then decisiveness and the ability to unemotionally take a trade is paramount . I'd suggest that > 90% of 'daytraders ' would have no idea of their expectancy and if they actually knew their expectancy it would force then to acknowledge they have negative expectancy ( zero edge ) . Anyone what actually quantifies their expectancy and finds its negative would be a fool to continue trading > daytrading successfully is one of the hardest jobs out there , easier to become a successful lawyer imo . Anyone that think they will become a profitable daytrader without putting the best part of a decade learning is fooling themselves . Daytrading has its benefits sleeping on cash overnight and weekends as time in market is risk , you need to be in a position while its moving and get out when it stops . In an average day i can often only be in market for as little as 2 hours . If you can get to the level that maybe the top 2-3% can get its a lucrative pursuit but it will be the hardest thing you have ever done . Thats what makes it worth doing . Good luck to all that go down this road but lucks got nothing to do with it in reality . The correaltion between ' luck ' and HARD work can never be underestimated Maths and data will set you free but not the usual datafit thats prevalent out there , You need to understand what to measure in price action that presents itself in repeatable patterns . You need to understand bias regimes , volatility , momentum , etc and develop tangible unique ways to define . The usual generic studies in most platforms are not great at doing this . There is no one stop algo to deal with all market stages ., you need a ' set ' of systems for different regimes and some filters to switch between them as markets shift regime . Volatility is what i find the key to much of this . If i have turned anyone of from daytrading you were not right for this pursuit . Rock on .
  6. There are no ABSOLUTES in markets ,only probabilities but carry on
  7. Guess my luck is still running
  8. Haha i can't help it but if in fact i am pretentious i am 100 times happier than you >>>>> Can i block this sack of misery ? Is it possible , be great if it is . OK i promise you can now have the last word , Its what Narcs need to feel dominant , I will give you that . my pleasure , good luck
  9. Is there a way to block someone in this forum ?? Appreciate any advice on this
  10. For the sake of forum i will just leave it here , Sake of Casey sad **** as well , no-one wants to see this . Or do they . Maybe i saying what many desire to . anyway we are done .. good luck
  11. Optimism is an option , Take that path , life is so much more enjoyable . Now thats a fact
  12. Narcissist , look it up . I 'm confident , DLR confident , U arent . U R on the edge . For your own mental health i will leave you alone . good luck
  13. Yeah its close to an eachway bet today . most of last 12m 3 day 8% decline has been a screaming buy , the big differenece this time is rising US10Y . NFP might be a catalyst to save the day or sink the ship . Be a pivotal interesting night without doubt
  14. Dude you have 12000 posts of 71k on this forum , have a long hard think about that and where your life is . put a time frame on those 12k posts , its scary how much of your life you live in here and how much you supress this forum . Good luck , you are going to need it . 11,973 posts
  15. hopefully i can ignore your sorry **** , you r depressing , the source of 16% of comments on this forum . get some help man .
  16. Dont let the truth get in the way of a good story . You r no pioneer . We all have gone through lockdowns although NO_ONE has had a perpetual one . Facts who needs em
  17. You must be fun at family events and parties
  18. NQ Clearly broken the uptrend since March '20 lows . Others are looking to follow or are starting to . NFP tonight . Volmaggedon
  19. NQ did the second highest volume since the March lows last year last session , repeat of that volume will = > 5% red .
  20. bahaha IG makes more money than u do from your trades , well at least as much
  21. Ultimately what ever happens regarding " cycles" will be of no help to me . I am my own trader Re volatility , its my niche , My models pick up most swings high and low . My methods are recactive not so much predictive . Its doesnt matter where it goes as long as it goes . 1 year predictions are just a little fun with no weight in my profitability . Most years are up so just on that you should be bullish year on year and you will be right more times than not . I dont care if i am right or wrong . I left my ego behind a while back . Vix hasnt been around long enough to have a handle on its efficacy but i have done studies on realised volatility back multi decades and i put some credence in my conclusion , but once again it will have zero influence on my returns unlike most . We know there are no absolutes in this game , just probabilities and possibilities , define the former and manage the latter and it takes care of itself .. rock on Wise words
  22. What i do is not really a copy of anything thats out there . Over 20 years have developed my own style/way of trading . I am mostly a quantitative programming trader with a solid discretionary background . Basically i have travelled the whole gammut of trading reading 100's books and watching as many videos which led me nowhere basically . Full of basically the same generic indicators that mean little to nothing tangible outside being a squiglly line leading to overbought/sold ( insert eye roll ) . Have maybe 600 books on file and the majority of them good for starting fires ( efires) and not much else . As i am a trader i dont get much if any time to report during trading hours but as time becomes available i will post a few things about my style . Volatility is a leading indicator . rock on
  23. It is what it is . I am a short term trader so i dont really care where markets go beyond a max 10 week time frame . " Forecasting in this type of market is near impossible " I am certainly not making any definitive predictions but i am a technical trader and the pattern exists in VIX so its what i will go with but i reserve my right to change bias at any stage Gann cycles , armstrong etc not my thing . My alpha is produced in the next 2 days not 2 years . I am a systematic trader who backtests , writes all my code in my charts outside 2 generics that i modify anyway . I Quantify anything i can . Try to be as objective as possible with open minded critical thinking principles . But i know what i know and most are using things have zero edge and they dont even know it . If you knew you had a negative expectancy youd stop doing that thing . Volatility is my main focus and it tells me most of what i need to know , of course i use other things for context but the base methodology is Vol . I just shared that VIX thing to show something different . This long term prediction game is full of broken clocks . Many permabears have called 27 of the last 2 crashes 😁 . Just trade what comes day by day and sleep on mostly cash is my MO . I trade 5m charts and 3 weeks is an investment to me . Rock on
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