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Bell

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Everything posted by Bell

  1. Thanks Caseynotes most helpful.
  2. Bell

    XLM Media PLC

    The real vision youtube piece made a very nice profile about the company. Was in it before when the cascade happened. If the market holds up for long enough this could make the 1.20-1.30 area as Meyers predicted. We may get a pullback to get in cheaper one to scale into. Only problem this has burned a lot from the fall like TRMR although the Ceo here did not have to resign.
  3. you need to short this - without getting stopped out during bear market rally
  4. By the way casey great to see the Wykoff chart on the thread - good stuff.
  5. The danger always is here that you get indicator overload. I used to have loads of the stuff. As long as it alleviates indecision rather than leading to it - which a bunch pushed me towards. I realise now I was looking for the perfect trade and it was based round fear. Two good indicators that you feel comfortable with are best. I like stochs and RSI also the CCI has been useful for me. Price still the best indicator out there in my view. Support and resistance levels aid the trade.
  6. Would veer towards a pullback as you said. If it hangs around here we could get gap higher catching longs waiting for historic resistance level to break, out. As the market is bouncing it likely falls back. Feels like this is though the start of a breakout period. What is the catalyst going to be? G20, Tariffs, liquidity squeezes, Europe, Middle East. Powell saying QE is on the cards possibly also augers well. Long term Gold is looking very good and choppy as usual.
  7. @caseynotes The consolidation phase is the one that leaves a lot of investors with problems. Is it the move up or the dreaded down. Volume gives some idea. Thing is that is why we are all keen on trading the breakout. On SB you have said you don't like to trade the breakout- but the pullback. A lot of investors myself included always fear the Pullback may turn into a distribution phase. You have to have feel for the trend - which Wykoff is so strong for. Those are the fears. Some times on the longer phase it is a little more definite the signal. NB. The rectangle point which is one I strongly favour was also proposed by Nicholas Darvas. They bleed into each other but Wykoff is so good as a basis. It is seen over and over in so many charts.
  8. @caseynotes thanks mate was looking for that area. Will check through it. In terms of strategy - it is interesting people being so open. Showing our mistakes allows us to improve so people who have exposed themselves have been brave. But together with others opinions like yourself - it really does help. You can try different timeframes. I noticed you like Wykoff which tends to really suit a longer timeframe. In my mind he synthesised a variety of different ideas - it is amazing how few people these days know of him and how so many could benefit from his principles...
  9. @Caseynotes since chatting with you opened up a demo spread bet account. Done three trades so just getting to know it. The thing that concerns me is the overnight carrying charges as the process I would want to play is swing. Not too hot working on a day trade scenario. Cannot see definitive charges. Made small loss on Dax of £4. DOW £425 profit on the bounce (closed at the 200dma.- and currently £20 down on ITV as fancied seeing how the share plays work. Too be accurate only traded the Dax for a day and the Dow. More interested in the indices and commodities as from my meagre knowledge this looks a better vehicle for SB. All help much appreciated.
  10. @Foxy would hold for a move to 25400 - 25000 theoretically on spread bet play. Market oversold. Stated long term am not confident about this index. Short end is the way to play on a large position. The second time 25000 is broken will be the key play down in my opinion. That would likely take us down to 23500 -23000 zone. all the best.
  11. Could do a long Dow and short Dax hedge.
  12. @foxy You may be right. would only look at this as a small position play. Mid and Long term bearish - too much out there. Technically oversold. But below 200 dma is never good. Would be looking to put much larger position short later on.
  13. I think and pray you are right. Market feels like it needs a bounce. Mid term quite bearish. Short term do not want to be forced short till I am ready.
  14. Believe we have a crack at the long side as we are technically oversold. But we must be very cautious. Would look to trade dow for a move to the 200dma at 25400 - more than that is a bonus. Always one tweet away from the trade turning fast. Merkel's coalition toast wait for Dax to weaken and short hard. That market looks very precarious. Merkel is weak and Trump will apply more pressure... it's in his interest
  15. @Caseynotes " by all accounts is unfair". Sadiq Khan's mother thinks he is doing a terrific job as Mayor. We have to be accurate.
  16. @elle and casey thanks for the charts. The gap up looks great specially on the volume increase. Could be an impulsive wave. Believe you are on the money on this. Middle East is hotting up that is the key lever up with oil price. Otherwise think we have large up move finally over next 6 months for gold and down for oil.
  17. @Caseynotes agreed - all about the strength of the bounce. We need strong bounce above 12,200 to start to weaken downward cycle on Dax and a 25500 upward thrust on INDU. G20 will start to define the markets. I think this could be huge one - what goes off between Xi and Trump here will define matters for a quarter at least. Would look at DAX very carefully do not like what is happening in Europe. Banks stink. Manufacturing weak of course this has nothing to do with China... in Merkel's eyes. The problem with Europe was not the loose economic union... it is our insane political one... they have built a new Habsburg empire and that did not end well.
  18. Hi @Foxy I think we may take out the 50 dma to suck people in on the long side. The technical will push a bounce. Then some piece of news will draft this lower. I think stock entry prices and exits will be easier than indices. Get the direction right big profits will be on though. .. the moves should really trend.
  19. We may get a small bounce to around 25200 on the chart but I would be looking at 24500 then 23500. If those do not hold we double bottom. Stochs are way oversold but I do not believe that means a lot other than people are skittish. On the options and commodities floor in the old days guys would ride in at the overbought and oversold levels. They were doubling up on momentum. We could be in a fade the rally mode. Summer and earnings season could be hard for stocks. I am not a perma bear for my portfolio I would like it to let up. Also Italy looks rocky again and Deutsche Bank they cannot give the stock away. When the German Government unite the two largest banks in Germany you know they are exposed to some pretty horrible loans. They are making new lows daily. Dax below 50 dma lower to go. Does this remind us of a particular time. I hope I am wrong.
  20. Jeff Gundlach made an interesting statement saying that US debt was up 6% and GDP was 5% so US Growth was -1%. Without the debt expansion economic expansion cannot move forward. At some point the tap gets turned off. We could hit it very soon. Prior highs at moment do not seem to be ready to be taken out.
  21. Well we got our break. The indices rose so fast after Powell. I think it's a swift drop. Are levels of support probably a 61% fib retrace of the move. Say what you will Trump has a set of **** and is the only one standing up to China. European politicians should be joining him. .. though they would have to find theirs.
  22. Great notes guys. This a really interesting thread. Of the couple of Dax trades that I have done. I do think it a worthwhile index to trade. The 11400 zone is my first main target where Merc highlighted the gap on the chart. This next 6 months could see outsize moves now we will have more Brexit uncertainty and trade war moves. Under the hood Global capital seems to tighten even though we have Fed easing. There is more debt to sell - interesting to see when the rubber really hits the road. Casey looked at the sentiment a couple of weeks back and suggested too many were short orientated. I agreed then. Does feel now that sands are shifting beneath. But the short side is always there...
  23. A lot has to happen with the Dow just that the chart looks horrible. Especially the MACD. On both the bounces will speak volumes. Foxy's line at 11800 looks pivotal. Does not feel like there is a lot of oomph in European markets. They could take the biggest hit from the trade war.
  24. This is somewhat annoying could we have some calm for 6 months, please. Would like to enjoy my longs... actually desperate too. Have a horrible feeling we are looking at a 21750 retest. 24500 first support in my view if we break below. Looking at a bounce then a gap below 200 dma. Thoughts guys?
  25. This is beginning to look ominous across the indices. US poor open and DAX below12k. Don't want to see a break below 25k. Love my longs. Was praying for calms for just a couple of months. Don't look that way. Also summer volumes may dry up so moves will be more pronounced.
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