Bell

Jeff Gundlach made an interesting statement saying that US debt was up 6% and GDP was 5% so US Growth was -1%. Without the debt expansion economic expansion cannot move forward. At some point the tap gets turned off. We could hit it very soon. Prior highs at moment do not seem to be ready to be taken out.

Well we got our break. The indices rose so fast after Powell. I think it's a swift drop. Are levels of support probably a 61% fib retrace of the move. Say what you will Trump has a set of **** and is the only one standing up to China. European politicians should be joining him. .. though they would have to find theirs.

Great notes guys. This a really interesting thread. Of the couple of Dax trades that I have done. I do think it a worthwhile index to trade. The 11400 zone is my first main target where Merc highlighted the gap on the chart. This next 6 months could see outsize moves now we will have more Brexit uncertainty and trade war moves. Under the hood Global capital seems to tighten even though we have Fed easing. There is more debt to sell - interesting to see when the rubber really hits the road. Casey looked at the sentiment a couple of weeks back and suggested too many were short orientated. I agreed then. Does feel now that sands are shifting beneath. But the short side is always there...

A lot has to happen with the Dow just that the chart looks horrible. Especially the MACD. On both the bounces will speak volumes. Foxy's line at 11800 looks pivotal. Does not feel like there is a lot of oomph in European markets. They could take the biggest hit from the trade war.

This is somewhat annoying could we have some calm for 6 months, please. Would like to enjoy my longs... actually desperate too. Have a horrible feeling we are looking at a 21750 retest. 24500 first support in my view if we break below. Looking at a bounce then a gap below 200 dma. Thoughts guys?

This is beginning to look ominous across the indices. US poor open and DAX below12k. Don't want to see a break below 25k. Love my longs. Was praying for calms for just a couple of months. Don't look that way. Also summer volumes may dry up so moves will be more pronounced.

Important to remember the growing power of share buybacks powering the US market. Also international investment pushing it higher. If that moves out we could see air pockets below.

My targets tend to be longer term. Do not feel as confident TA wise on the short term cycle. This why I appreciate Casey. But we can all make good money playing a Long term cycle as well. As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes. There we can allow 200dma as a res point. It may graze under and be a bear trap and shoot higher. I feel below 25k the game changes.

If the D50 breaks at 11896 I would target 11400 as a key support area. Feels more down than up but that could be the head fake.

The last couple of days the rhetoric between the two softened and that kick started the bounce. Does not mean we won't get it - but thoughts are from media that they are accommodating each other. I like the charts. If trade war kicks off we could see some frightening falls. The market feels skittish. Is this '87 again?

The trade war may be pulling back. That what seems to be the reaction. If you look at the SH etf inverse S+P when this baby blows the short side over two years could be incredible.

Think we are in a rinse and repeat cycle till G20 and the big meeting. May get resolution earlier. We could be getting ready for the blow off top before the big leg down. Guess we cant pre-empt as that defeats TA. On TA sometimes as you said some bits do feel like snake oil. Probably feel that more around indicators. Patterns and Rand S levels feel more solid.

Looking at a move to 11400 for the dax. That is my key support level

Sorry did not get back to you been obsessing over a position. Reason I trade etf rather than cfd is the margin requirements. Read the gubbins on Cfd's and did not like them. Dax at bottom of range should get a small bounce before breakdown. Strong Bearish engulfing pattern

Think we can start looking to short through an etf. Would pyramid in - we may get a little bounce then a further breakdown.

Sorry mate wrong picture had the daily dax Bearish as well

The bearish daily engulfing offers shorting opportunity in my view. I agreed earlier with you on US that the bearish sentiment would create short squeeze. I would now havea crack at a short on the Dax and the INDU.

Got a feeling you are right. Perfect play for short squeeze to move market higher. May have slight pullback first then breakout. Nice commentary casey.