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  1. US and China meeting in Beijing 7th - 8th Jan, to hold trade talks at vice ministerial level, looking to end the trade war as both economies are affected Theresa May warns the UK of an ‘uncharted territory’ if the Brexit deal is rejected by Parliament. May announces that she has agreed to some ‘changes’ whilst talking to European leaders including specific measures for Northern Ireland, a greater role for Parliament negotiations on the next stage of the future UK-EU relation and additional assurances over the Irish border backstop. MPs are expected to vote on the 14th or 15th January. Trump continues to demand $5.6billion funding in order to build the wall on the Mexican border, and threats to declare a national emergency. Trump announces the idea to build the wall out of steel instead of concrete, potentially hoping the Democrats could therefore claim it is not a wall Asia stocks trade higher Monday morning with the Nikkei 225 rising over 2.4%, Hang Seng Index by 0.66% and ASX 200 up 1.14% Huawei releases a new ‘next-generation’ chipset, despite facing political headwinds, in hope of ‘attracting customers by making good products’, according to its chief strategy marketing officer and director of the board Apple create deal with its formal top rival Samsung, to which Samsung TVs will support Apple iTunes for movies and TV purchases and playback Tesla to hold its ground-breaking ceremony in Shanghai, its first non-US factory. It is predicted to start partial production in the second half of 2019 Asian overnight: Asian markets have carried on the bullish theme exhibited throughout Friday, with optimism surrounding the direction of trade talks coupled with relatively dovish comments from Fed chair Powell on Friday. With representatives from the US and China meeting for their first formal round of trade talks for months, we are seeing resurgent hopes of a potential breakthrough in relations. With the potential for a substantial risk-on shift, it comes as no surprise to see the safe haven Yen losing ground, helping boost Japanese stocks to over 2% up on the session. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, keep an eye out for German and eurozone retail sales figures, while the US session sees the Canadian Ivy PMI and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading dominate proceedings. Obviously with few major events of note, the ongoing wider themes will continue to play into the investor mindset. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (December): expected to fall to 56.7 from 57.2. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (December): forecast to fall to 59.7 from 60.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Dunelm said that it sees profit for the first half ‘modestly’ ahead of forecasts, but the full year outlook remains difficult due to high levels of uncertainty. Like-for-like sales were up 9% overall for the 13 weeks to 29 December. Staffline has won contracts worth £104.6 million from UK prison tenders. Hays Upgraded to Buy at HSBC Tullow Upgraded to Outperform at RBC Lundin Petroleum Upgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Magnit Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan AB InBev Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman HSBC Downgraded to Sell at Citi Centrica Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies InterContinental Hotels Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. House Democrats won votes to end the partial government shutdown, however, has not brought Congress any closer to resolve Trumps demand for $5billion for a wall. Apple stocks fell on Thursday to $142.19, its lowest price level since July 2017. This pushed its market valuation behind the market cap of Alphabet, as it drops $450billion in market value China and US announced plans to hold trade talks on 7-8 Jan, at a Vice ministerial level in hopes of ending the trade war which has affected both economies and financial markets Asia markets trade at mixed levels; Nikkei 225 falling 2.68% in comparison to a rise of 1.3% for the Hang Seng index, 1.81% for the Shanghai Composite, 2.24% and 2.409% for Shenzhen Composite and Component, respectively US Stocks continued to fall on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 660.02 points, or 2.8%, S&P 500 by 2.47% and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 3%, following on from Apples revenue warning, Apples worst session since 2013 Qualcomm posted 1.34billion Euros of security bonds to implement a court order in relation to banning sales of some Apple iPhones in Germany Global merger and acquisition deals fall to the lowest since 2010, including the Chinese purchase of US firms which declined by 94.6% to $3billion Brazil President broadcasts a plan to privatise 12 airports and 4 sea ports in order to raise initial investments of around $1.85billion UK, US and Europe: One bill which passed by House Democrats will ‘fund eight closed US departments through 30th September and to reopen the Department of Homeland Security through the beginning of February, however, have still not come to a conclusion on Trumps demand for the wall. As the measures do not agree to his demand, Trump has refused to sign as they believe it is a waste of time; "The President cannot accept legislation that provides unnecessary funding for wasteful programs while ignoring the Nation’s border security needs,” the Trump administration responded. Looking ahead, US non-farm payrolls is to be announced on Friday at 13:30 GMT, which expects the NFP to increase by 177,000 in December, in comparison to November’s 155,000, however, still under the six month average. Unemployment rate is predicted to be unchanged, and therefore remain at 3.7% Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Luckin to try and overtake Starbucks in China, to become the largest coffee chain by amount of global outlets, as they plan to open 2500 new stores this year Bristol-Myers Squibb plans to purchase Celgene at a value of $74billion IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Facebook Inc. works on its plans to create a cryptocurrency allowing money to be transferred on Whatsapp, focusing on the remittances market in India first Chinese stocks become one of the worst performers globally as the Shanghai composite and Shenzhen index fall over 20% and 30% respectively this year US Futures show a slight incline in performance for stocks on Wall Street, following a fall for the second day in a row. Dow Jones Industrial Average suggests an opening gain over around 113.40 on Friday morning, following the decline on Thursday of 464.06 points. S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are also pointed to opening gains, after they decreased by 1.58% and 1.6% respectively on Thursday Nissan Chairman re-arrested on new allegations of aggravated breach of trust which suspects that Ghosn “made the automaker shoulder personal investment losses of around $16.6million, incurred in 2008”. The court rejected a request to extend his detention, meaning Ghosn could potentially apply to be released on bail The Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, is to step down at the end of February, as he believes Trump should “have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours” Former Canadian Diplomat, Michael Kovrig, was taken whilst in China following the arrest on Huawei CFO, has now been detained but denied legal representation Hewlett Packard Enterprise and IBM had its network breached by hackers working on behalf of China’s Ministry of State Security, for access to hack into clients computers Trump administration plans to pull thousands of troops from Afghanistan, in hope that around 7000 troops can be sent home within months Boris Johnson cleared of breaking the Tories’ code of conduct, following a remark made about women wearing burkas Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, with Japanese markets leading the declines amid a flight to the safe haven Yen. Fears over a government shutdown are now front and centre of the collective investor mindset, with Donald Trump threatening to veto a bill funding the government unless he receives funds to build a border wall with Mexico. On the data front, Japanese national CPI declines to 0.9% from 1%, marking the first fall in inflation for six-months UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the pound remains a key focus for traders, with UK current account, GDP (Q3 Final), public sector net borrowing, and the BoE quarterly bulletin all being released. In the afternoon, keep an eye out for Canadian GDP and retail sales, with the Canadian dollar also relatively volatile around the recent sharp declines in energy prices. The US also looks set for a busy end to the week, with core durable goods, GDP, core PCE price index, and personal spending all worth following Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK GDP (Q3, final): growth expected to be 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (November): forecast to rise 1.2% MoM and up 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Anglo American has resumed mining operations at Minas-Rio in Brazil. Diageo has sold a portfolio of 19 brands to Sazerac for $550 million. In partnership with Dada-JD Daojia, a logistics company, Walmart are testing on a smaller store in Chengdu to focus on lower-tier cities, as online delivery services show an increase in China Tencent shares increase around 4.2% following the news that new games have been cleared for sale, after China stopped approving new titles in March Ontex upgraded to neutral at Goldman British Land downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue Headlam downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt Klepierre downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue Telenor cut to hold at SEB Equities IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. Asia stocks were higher Wednesday morning; Nikkei 225 rising over 2%, ASX 200 up by 1.25% and Hang Seng Index around 1.36%. This was followed by the news of China to cut US car tariffs from the planned 40% to 15%, the same tax charge on car imports from other countries May traveled on Tuesday back to Europe to try and gain a few more concessions from the European side, in regards to the Brexit deal. It is rumoured that 48 letters of no longer supporting May have been sent. May to face a vote of no confidence on Wednesday between 18:00 GMT and 20:00 GMT. Canada grants bail by setting a $10million CAD bail for Huawei CFO, Meng Wanzhou, following charges of “improperly taking payments from Iran in violation of sanctions against the country” EU Ambassador states that technology transfers should be regulated as EU companies should not be obliged to transfer technology to gain access to the Chinese market US President, Trump, announced that he would intervene in the case against Huawei CFO if this could contribute to closing a trade deal with China New charges are filed against Malaysian former Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and former CEO of 1MDB, in relation to alleged tampering of the audit report and theft of billions of dollars from the fund Trump comments on the expected rise in interest rates from the Federal Reserve as a “mistake”, as Trump needs the flexibility of lower rates to support the trade war between the US and China Saudi Arabia convinced two dozen oil producers to cut production levels as part of a “Saudi first” policy France budget deficit to potentially increase as President Macron announces a plan to raise minimum wage by 100Euros ($114) a month and overtime will not be taxed, as well as a reverse on tax hike on pensions for those earning less than 2000Euros a month UK government to spend an extra £100million to support the renewable energy projects in Africa, as well as committing to invest £5.8billion in international climate finance by 2020 Asian overnight: Asian markets have enjoyed a bullish session overnight, as improved sentiment over US-China relations is helping drive a more positive outlook for risk assets. A Chinese reduction in tariffs on US car imports looks like the first in many steps, while the US seem to be softening their stance to the Huawei CFO who has been granted bail in Canada. ...the EU industrial production release represents the European event of note, while US CPI brings inflation back into the picture UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the eurozone industrial production release represents the only European event of note, while US CPI brings inflation issues back into the picture. Given the recent deterioration in energy prices, it comes as no surprise to see that the headline CPI reading is expected to decline this month. Finally, watch out for the crude inventories figure, which is expected to follow up last week’s surprisingly sharp decline with another negative reading this time around. It's also worth looking ahead at tomorrow, when the European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi, is expected to confirm an end to QE (quantitative easing) in the form of 2.6 trillion euros worth of bond buybacks. The process, echoed by many central banks such as the US Fed and the Bank of England, has been hotly debated within the eurozone where more stable northern states didn't want to take on the political risk of weaker southern areas. When it comes to energies, a warmer winter is expected to send LNG prices to a 6 month low, whilst forwards buying earlier this year - notably over summer - haven't helped. Whilst heating demand normally pushes the price action of energies up (as seen last year) it looks like some unsold cargoes are still looking for a home. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US CPI (November): CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 December): stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Rolls-Royce expects earnings and cash flow for the year to be at the upper end of previous guidance. The firm’s restructuring remains on target, it added. British American Tobacco said that it was on track to meet targets, as performance in combustibles and vaping offset weakness thanks to FX markets. Superdry has issued a profit warning, saying that warm weather in November and December had hit performance, although first half pre-tax profit rose to £26.4 million from £9.1 million a year earlier. Deliveroo to open its first customer-facing restaurant in Hong Kong Brandlogic, a clothing brand, launched a legal claim against Bentley Motors, for “badly damaging its business” Facebook evacuating buildings in Silicon Valley due to bomb threat, but later found no explosives in the building Alfa Financial upgraded to hold at Berenberg Rational upgraded to buy at HSBC Siegfried upgraded to buy at Baader Helvea DWS downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan Man Group downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan Salvatore Ferragamo cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux Metro Bank downgraded to neutral at Citi IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. Trump reported that Brexit could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, leaving Britain unable to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the US OPEC to meet in Vienna next week to discuss levels of oil production. It is expected to be cut down by 1million to 1.5million barrels due to worries of the US-China trade war Trump announced a potential introduction of applying a 10% tariff on iPhones imported from China, which could increase to 25% on January 1st Ukraine to bring martial law for 30 days, following the attack from Russian military, wounding several sailors Asian markets trade higher with Nikkei 225 inclining by 0.8%, Shanghai composite rising 0.42%, Shenzhen up 0.62% and ASX 200 by 0.91% Brent crude oil futures rises by 2.9% to $60.48 a barrel Saudi Aramco to invest $100billion globally in chemicals within the next 10 years, as well as a prediction in the next decade of an increase in production to 23billion standard cubic feet a day from 14billion, attracting $150billion worth of investments Bitcoin declined by 81% from its last year’s peak in addition to its trading volumes, with its 24-hour volume decreasing by 61% on Monday to $19billion Goldman Sachs believes commodities could rise by 17% in the following months as the G-20 summit could be a ‘potential launchpad for raw materials’ Asian overnight: A mixed affair overnight saw losses in Chinese and Hong Kong markets, as Donald Trump raised the stakes for the upcoming talks at the G20, stating that their tariffs would be ramped up in the case of no-deal. However, Japanese and Australian markets fared much better, with a rebound in oil prices helping the ASX 200 in particular. On the data-front, Japanese BoJ core CPI rose marginally to 0.6% against expectations. UK, US and Europe: Theresa May continued to face criticism from the opposition and numerous conservative members of Parliament, however, May defends her proposals in relation to the Brexit withdrawal agreement as she believes “there is not a better deal available”, even though she confesses she is not “entirely happy” with the backstop plan to avoid a hard border. It has been confirmed that the final vote will take place around the 11th December. The US president reported that the Brexit withdrawal agreement is a “great deal for the EU”, however suggested that this could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, announcing that “right now, if you look at the deal, the UK may not be able to trade with us. And that wouldn’t be a good thing”. Responding to this, a Downing Street spokesman reported that the Brexit agreement would allow the UK to sign bilateral deals with countries including the US. Looking ahead, UK markets will likely have a volatile start to the day, given the number of companies releasing their earnings this morning. In the US, keep an eye out for the latest consumer confidence as the one major data release of the day. Besides that, markets are likely to focus on current themes, with Brexit, US-China relations, and the Italian budget remaining prominent. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 3pm – US consumer confidence (November): expected to fall to 136.2 from 137.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Thomas Cook said that underlying earnings for the year to September will fall to £250 million, down from £308 million a year earlier. In addition, it will suspend its full-year dividend. Net debt rose to £389 million, due to delayed bookings and non-cash items. Pennon reported a 2.9% rise in pre-tax profit for the first half, to £133.6 million, while revenue was up 3.1% at £746.7 million. Greggs upgraded expectations for the full-year, saying that a good October and November meant that full-year pre-tax profit would be at least £86 million, from a previous expectation of £72 million, in-line with last year. Shaftesbury reported a 14% rise in investment earnings to £51.7 million, while the total dividend rose 5% to 16.8p per share. General Motors to cut over 14,000 jobs and close 8 plants, reducing productivity levels in factories in the US and Canada Tesla sales in China tumble by 70% in comparison to the previous year, selling only 211 cars in October Line shares increased as much as 17% following the news of joining with Tencent. Altri upgraded to market perform at BBVA Atea upgraded to neutral at SpareBank Hikma upgraded to buy at Jefferies Iberdrola upgraded to outperform at RBC Aurubis downgraded to hold at DZ Bank NMC Health cut to underperform at Jefferies Credit Suisse cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. Dolce and Gobbana tension rises as their goods are no longer available on a few Chinese e-commerce sites, including Taobao and JD. Com. Spain threatens to vote against the Brexit deal as they request that any decisions in relation to the territory of Gibraltar to only be discussed directly with Madrid. EU negotiators are meeting today to try and resolve this before the summit taking place on Sunday Asian markets show a decline with the Shanghai composite falling 2.25%, the Shenzhen composite by 3.5% and the Hang Seng index falling 0.62% Oil prices continued to decline with the global benchmark Brent falling to $62.10 after it hit its lowest since December 2017 at $61.52 a barrel. Tension between the US and China continue as Wall Street reported that the US government are trying to persuade allies to avoid telecommunications equipment from Huawei technology Meituan Dianping shares plummet by 11.63% after posting its first earnings report since its $4.2billion IPO which occurred in September. Tencent, its main backer, also saw a decline in their shares by 1.56% International Petroleum Investment Company files a lawsuit against multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs due to a conspiracy theory of taking millions of dollars from the 1MDB fund The board of Nissan decides to remove Carlos Ghosn as Chairman in relation to accusations of significant acts of misconduct, including under-reporting compensation amounts and personal use of company assets Over half of economists believed the South African Reserve Bank would keep its repo rate at 6.5%, however on Thursday, it was agreed to increase this to 6.75% Asian overnight: A mixed session overnight saw Hong Kong and Chinese markets lower, while Australian and Japanese indices were on the rise. Tensions continue between Italian luxury fashion brand Dolce and Gobbana, causing China to react by removing D&G products from e-commerce sites. This response occurred after screenshots were found showing co-founder Stefano Gabbana using ‘crude terms’ and Instagram messages using offensive language. The brand have said their account was hacked, quoting "we have nothing but respect for China and the people of China". UK, US and Europe: Fears over a Brexit breakdown do not seem to be holding much weight at the moment as we head into the weekend’s EU summit, with Spanish threats to veto the deal over Gibraltar largely disregarded as a surmountable issue. Yesterday’s bearish European session is likely to have an impact on US sentiment today. With a host of economic readings to watch out for, it is likely to be a volatile session. European flash PMI surveys, Canadian inflation and retail sales, alongside US PMI readings should provide enough to keep things moving. Add to that the speculation over how retail is faring on one of the biggest shopping days in the year, and we have a relatively busy day ahead. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (November, flash): these are expected broadly to improve over the past month, although some weakness in the German figures may hit the euro. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – Canada CPI (October): inflation to rise 2.7% YoY from 2.2%, and rise to 0.1% from -0.4%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (November, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 56 from 55.7, while services PMI remains at 54.8. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ibstock has sold Glen-Gery, its US brick manufacturing business, for $110 million, and has confirmed that the full-year outlook was unchanged. James Fisher reported a 14% rise in revenue for the ten months to 31 October, compared to a year earlier. Centrica, owner of British Gas, to take a hit of £70million in its first quarter of 2019 due to its new cap on energy bills Shell spending around £300million to update the plant at Bacton, increasing the production of gas by 16% Hyundai and Kia Motors being investigated in relation to its vehicle recalls which occurred in 2015 and 2017 as it is believed the recalls were not conducted properly CYBG upgraded to buy at Citi Hastings upgraded to overweight at Barclays Ibstock upgraded to buy at Peel Hunt Renault upgraded to buy at Jefferies Kingfisher downgraded to neutral at Goldman Thales downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF Avon Rubber cut to sell at Panmure Gordon IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. Brexit draft has been backed up by the cabinet where Theresa May will announce a speech on Thursday to the Parliament, however, there are assumptions that this could end with a vote of no confidence China delivering a written response to the US demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, which could potentially end the trade war between the two countries Bitcoin market capitalisation declines to its lowest level since October 2017, falling to under $100billion. Ethereum and XRP also decline by 13% and 15% respectively Oil prices fall to its lowest with Brent crude falling almost 7% and US Oil over 7% ASEAN summit starts without Trump in sight, leading to beliefs that Washington may not be as “committed to Asia” as expected, according to Capri, visiting senior fellow at the National University of Singapore GBP rose against the USD by 0.2% as of 2:22pm on Wednesday, from $1.29 earlier in the day Aramco to purchase SABIC, the world’s fourth-biggest petrochemicals company, and to then potentially list downstream oil assets S&P 500 traded lower by 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 200 points early Wednesday, however has now declined by 72 points Germany’s economy declines as initial third-quarter growth shows a fall of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter Italy’s budget deficit to remain at 2.4% Asian overnight: A mixed session overnight saw gains in Japan counteracted by weakness across most of the other major markets. The Australian ASX 200 was the notable underperformer, falling over 1% thanks to substantial weakness across the energy sector in the wake of the crude decline. That decline was partly down to the OPEC monthly report which saw markets shift focus onto the oversupply that seems likely in 2019. Data-wise, we have seen a whole host of economic releases, with Japan falling into negative growth for Q3 (-0.3%), while Chinese releases fared somewhat better given the rise in fixed asset investment and industrial production. UK, US and Europe: The main focus of today is likely to be on Brexit concerns, given yesterday’s breakthrough in talks. May believes it was a “decisive step” in the procedure with the UK leaving the EU, and is expected to give a statement to the House of Commons on Thursday morning. The 585 paged draft deal includes a 21-month transition period, including a commitment to protect the rights of the EU nationals in the UK, as well as ensuring physical checks will not be reintroduced between the Irish border. The final agreement is far from assured a safe passage, and thus the market reaction is likely to be heavily impacted by the ability to pass through Parliament. With that in mind, expect sterling volatility, with any signals of how the votes might go likely to play a major role. Also watch out for the latest inflation data, with UK CPI expected to rise to 2.5% today. In mainland Europe, markets will be keenly following the latest eurozone Q3 GDP number, alongside the industrial production figure. Finally, the US follows on from the UK with the inflation theme, where CPI is expected to rise to a nine-month high. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK retail sales (October): sales to fall 0.4% MoM and rise 3.6% YoY from -0.8% and 3% respectively. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US Empire state mfg index (November), retail sales (October): index to fall to 20.5 from 21.1. Sales to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses 4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 9 November): delayed by a day due to Veterans Day, stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels from an increase of 5.7 million a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades 3i Group said that total return increased by 10% in the first half of the year rose 10% to £728 million, and net asset value per share rose 7.2% to 776p. Aston Martin said that adjusted earnings in Q3 rose to £54 million from £28 million a year earlier. Car sales doubled to 1776 in the period. Great Portland Estates will buy back £200 million o shares after strong demand for London real estate. Pre-tax profit to 77% to £40.4 million for the first half. Apple’s shares fall by more than 2%, declining to around $886billion from its record high of $1.13trillion House of Fraser to continue to close another four stores Flybe issued a profit warning and is now up for sale Uber figures shows a loss of around $1.07billion in its last three months to September Huawei plans to develop its voice assistant to work outside China, which could potentially cause competition between Google and Amazon Air France-KLM raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Wirecard upgraded to buy at DZ Bank Vivo Energy raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley Aggreko downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays Continental downgraded to neutral at Citi CRH downgraded to neutral at Exane IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. Hello @Wilsby, Unfortunately Baudi Inc ADR cannot be added onto your ISA portfolio due to recent regulations with its main listing. Apologies
  9. China’s dollar denominated imports and exports rise by 21.4% and 15.6% respectively, in comparison to year ago, however, its overall trade surplus was lower than expected, valued at $34.01billion for October, versus $35billion US Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired by Trump where Matthew Whitaker, his Chief of Staff to take over temporarily Theresa May announces that the withdrawal deal is 95% complete, and invites Cabinet Ministers to read the UK’s draft deal with the EU General secretary of Merkel’s CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, assumed to be the next leader, according to experts US to enforce final anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties, increasing from 96.3% to 176.2% on Chinese common aluminium sheet products Reserve Bank of New Zealand official cash rate remains at 1.75% UBS Group expecting to be sued by the US department of Justice in relation to the mortgage securities from 2006 Stocks in Asia rise with the Hang Seng index increasing by 0.96%, Shanghai composite rise by 0.61% and Shenzhen composite 0.6% Last week’s US oil production figures increases to 11.6million barrels a day Australia to generate a new investment fund of A$2billion to deliver loans to Pacific Nations to build infrastructure International Energy Agency expects Nuclear power production to develop by 46% by 2040, with the majority of the net increase from China and India Asian overnight: Stock markets are on the rise once more today, with China providing the single outlier to a largely positive overnight session. Japanese markets were the big outperformers, as traders shift out of the safe haven Yen in the wake of yesterdays midterm election results. We also saw Japanese economic data slip, with bank lending and core machinery orders both falling short of expectation. The New Zealand dollar has been rising gradually, after the RBNZ kept rates steady as expected. Meanwhile, Chinese trade data received a welcome boost, with a rise in both imports and exports, despite trade war fears. To a large extent this is expected to represent a move to front load transactions ahead of the imposition of tariffs. UK, US and Europe: Keeping on the theme of trade data, the German figures have not been as kind, with imports and exports both slipping into negative growth. Keeping in the eurozone, look out for the EU economic forecasts later in the morning. However, all eyes will turn towards the US, with the FOMC providing their latest monetary policy decision. Markets expect to see little change this time around, gearing us up for a final hike in December. President Donald Trump, who had criticised his top law official for many months, fires US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who will be replaced by Matthew Whitaker, his Chief of staff. Whitaker has been assigned to look into special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in relation to the 2016 US election. Theresa May claims that the withdrawal deal is 95% complete, although an agreement in relation to the hard border in Northern Ireland has not come to a conclusion. Even though the deal is not fully complete, the Cabinet Ministers have been invited to read the UK’s draft deal with the EU. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US jobless claims (w/e 3 November): initial claims to fall to 213K from 214K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 7pm – FOMC decision (delayed by a day due to elections): no change is expected at this meeting. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades AstraZeneca said that Q3 earnings fell by 37% to 71 cents per share, while revenue was down 14% at $5.34 billion. The full-year outlook was retained, with core earnings per share of $3.30 to $3.50. Burberry reported an 8% rise in adjusted operating profit, to £178 million, although sales were down 3%. The interim dividend was left unchanged at 11p per share. Sainbury’s suffered a 40% drop in half-year profits, to £132 million, due to restructuring costs and expenses arising from a planned merger with Asda. Excluding exceptionals, pre-tax profits rose 20% to £302 million. The outlook for Christmas trading remained uncertain, and profit margins in the general merchandise division remain under pressure. Samsung announced on Wednesday that they will release a smartphone which can fold in half Tesla chair of the company’s board replaced by Robyn Denholm Societe Generale net income increases 32% in comparison to last year, as third-quarter results are announced. It’s net income reported at 1.2billion Euros versus expectations of 995million Euros Siemens fourth-quarter profit declines by 46% to 681million Euros, but higher than the expectations of 595million Netflix to focus its expansion on the audience in the Asian market, particularly focusing on India, as this is believed to be the bulk of the growth Facebook blocking over 100 Facebook and Instagram accounts as they receive a tip-off in regards to the accounts from law enforcement, which they believe it could be linked to Russia’s Internet Research Agency Microsoft to tackle cybersecurity, wanting to work with Trump and Congress Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors to invest an extra $250million in Grab, a Singapore-based technology company Ping an Technology contributed 6.3% of Ping an Group’s operating profit in the first three-quarters of 2018, in comparison to 0.9% last year Campari upgraded to neutral at Goldman Grieg Seafood upgraded to accumulate at Fearnley United Internet upgraded to buy at Commerzbank Stabilus upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe CGG downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley Evonik downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays G4S downgraded to sector perform at RBC Kendrion downgraded to hold at ING IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. Philip Hammond to announce the last UK annual budget plan before Brexit on Monday HSBC announces a rise in profit before tax of around 28% year-on-year to $5.922billion IBM to acquire Red Hat for $34billion, buying all shares at $190 each Jair Bolsonaro wins Brazilians Presidential election with just over 55% of votes Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union votes falls to 28% from 38.3% from the last election Economic growth for China fell short of expectations, including an economic slowdown in recent shipping data Investcorp to increase investment in the US, as well as looking to expand into the Asian markets, particularly China and India Michael Higgins wins 56% of votes and re-elected as Irish president Italian government to step in if a crisis in the banking sector occurred Crude oil continues to drop, declining around 12% and working on its worst month since 2016 Shanghai composite and Shenzhen composite falling by 0.95% and 0.83% in this mornings trade, whereas, the Nikkei 225 increases by over 1% and ASX 200 by 0.98% SIT Investment Associate’s warns that the bond market could surge on spiking interest rates Asian overnight: Another bearish session overnight saw losses across the majority of markets, with Chinese stocks hit hardest after the Shenzhen composite dropped 3%. The technology sector was once again targeted by sellers, with Japanese markets being impacted by a significant selloff. We also saw Japanese retail trade data fall from 2.7% to 2.1% Philip Hammond is set to announce the latest UK annual budget plan at 15.30 UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet economic calendar sees a focus on US data, where personal spending and the core PCE price index data should provide some form of volatility for dollar volatility. The government is to reconsider a new budget plan if a Brexit deal with the EU does not come into plan. Mr Hammond explains that the original budget forecast was based on an “average-type free trade deal”, therefore if the UK leaves without an agreement, this could change. The forecasted budget is pressured to add extra funds for the universal credit rollout, after claims that millions of households could potentially lose money under the new system. It also has plans to release expected budgets of around £30billion for roads in England, £900million in business rates and £650million to rejuvenate high streets, as well as an increase of £2billion on mental health services and another freeze in fuel duty. South Africa: Commodity prices are trading mostly lower this morning, while the dollar remains firm. The rand is weaker against the majors. Tencent Holdings is down 1% in Asia, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.4% higher in Australia this morning, suggestive of a higher start for local resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 12.30pm – US personal income & spending (September): income to rise 0.3% MoM and spending to rise 0.4% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses 11.30pm – Japan unemployment (September): rate to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. Market to watch: JPY crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades HSBC posted better than expected profits in Q3, following a reduction in costs, with adjusted pre-tax profits coming in at $6.19 billion (up 16%). The ability to rein in costs is positive going forward, with operating expenses falling 6.9% to $7.97 billion over the period. Ford’s production line in Bridgend to close from the 29th October to 2nd November Asda to potentially cut up to 25,000 jobs as they begin consultations with staff in regards to job roles and working hours Hitachi shares decline around 8% as its Chemical Co enters its second falsification scandal this year Barclays to not face trial over its emergency fundraising from Qatar in 2008 financial crisis MTN Group For the quarter ending 30 September 2018, group service revenue increased by 10,0% y/y and group data revenue increased by 23,9% y/y. Raubex Group Ltd for the interim period, revenue decreased by 4% and headline earnings per share decreased by 72.8% Famous Brands for the interim period, revenue increased by 5.4% and headline earnings per share by 10.6% Royal Gold Downgraded by Zacks Investment Research to Strong Sell IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. Japan and China sign a bilateral currency swap to improve financial stability Asia predicted to be more vulnerable than the US in regards to the sell-off in global stock markets, according to managing director of FX strategy for BK Asset Management US Futures direct more than a 200-point drop for Dow Jones, after seeing a slight recovery on Thursday Amazon shares drop nearly 9% in after-hours trading, regardless of hitting record profits of nearly $2.9billion in the last quarter in comparison to $256million last year, and sales increasing 29% in the third-quarter to $56.6billion. Revenue for its cloud services business also rises by 46% year-on-year and its advertising business by 122%. Alphabet shares fall 3.9% in after-hours trading as third-quarter sales doesn’t reach expectations Cryptocurrencies remaining stable regardless of global stock market sell-off, with Bitcoin, XRP and Ethereum falling 0.23%, 2.09% and 1.38% in comparison to 4% for Bitcoin and more than 11% for XRP and Ethereum on October 11th UBS’s net profit 32% higher than expected as it increases in third quarter to 1.2billion Swiss Francs As predicted, Turkey’s Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, causing the Turkish Lira to initially weaken to 5.71 against the Dollar Net-long positions for EUR/USD reach its second month high, at an estimate of 61.3% Asian overnight: Asian markets are back in the red today, with the Australian ASX 200 providing the only market that kept its head above water. The Chinese Yuan hit the lowest level since the financial crisis overnight, with US-China trade dispute showing no signs of improvement. Data-wise, the Tokyo core CPI figure came in steady at 1%. Japanese Prime Minister met Chinese President in Beijing, signing a bilateral currency swap arrangement, effective until 25th October 2021. According to the Bank of Japan, this agreement will allow the exchange of local currencies of up to 200billion Yuan/3.4trillion Yen between the two central banks. UK, US and Europe: A somewhat quiet economic calendar sees markets focus in on the US GDP reading as the one top tier piece of data worth keeping an eye out for. Market predictions point towards a sharp fall to 2.6% from 4.2% last quarter. Elsewhere, keep an eye out for the latest earnings from Exxon Mobil. US stocks recover on Thursday from its previous lows, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 400 points, S&P 500 gaining nearly 2% and the Nasdaq increasing by 3.2%, in comparison to a fall on Wednesday of 608.01 points, 3.1 and 4.4% retrospectively. However, US stocks decline after Thursday’s close with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 dropping at 5.6% and 7.2% for October, and the Nasdaq falling 9.1%. The on-going concerns of longer border checks at Calais continue as the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, warns The House of Commons of a worst-case scenario, which could lead to the French authorities potentially introducing a “go-slow” policy, if the UK leaves without a deal. Raab suggested to MPs to “prepare for the worst case scenario where the authorities at Calais are deliberately directing a go-slow approach by supporting a diversion of the flow to more amenable ports in other countries”. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US GDP (Q3, preliminary): growth to be 2.6% QoQ from 4.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades RBS reported an operating profit before tax of £961 million for Q3 2018, up from £871 million in Q3 2017. The bank is reducing its costs through transformation and digitisation, with expenses for the year falling 3.3% compared with 2017. In preparation for Brexit, the bank has gained approval from the Dutch regulators for a banking license. IAG posted an operating profit of €1,460 million in the nine months to September 30, 2018, up from €1,450 million last year. Rising fuel price and foreign exchange factors provided headwinds for the firm over the period, yet the firm still proposed an interim dividend of 14.5 euro cents per share. Glencore saw improved Copper, Cobalt, Nickel and coal production in the third quarter, with zinc the one disappointing segment of the business. Own sourced copper production was 12% higher than the comparable 2017 period, while cobalt production was up 44%after the firm restarted Katanga's processing operations. Nickel production was 13% higher, reflecting the progressive ramp-up of Koniambo, with its second production line. However, Zinc output fell 5% after African assets were sold to Trevali Mining. Adjusting for that disposal, zinc production was up 7%. Tesla Model 3 to come to the UK and Australia by mid-2019, according to the CEO Nokia to cut thousands of jobs as part of a cost reduction program, after third-quarter profit falls 27% to 487million Euros, in comparison to the previous year at 668million Euros Volvo buys a stake in FreeWire Technoligies Debenhams to close around 50 stores as it hits a record low of a £491.5 loss due to charges on leases and goodwill, the biggest fall in its 240-year history. BT Group CEO Gavin Patterson to be replaced by Philip Jansen from February 1st British Airways face second hack attack which may affect over 185,000 individuals in relation to payment card details being stolen CEO of Google admits the company had sexual harassment issues, causing 48 employees to be fired Burberry upgraded to hold at HSBC Kion upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan Lloyds upgraded to neutral at Macquarie LVMH upgraded to buy at HSBC AB InBev downgraded to hold at Independent Research Covestro downgraded to hold at Berenberg Hexpol downgraded to hold at SEB Equities Valeo downgraded to inline at Evercore IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. KatherineIG

    Brexit EU Summit - EMEA Brief 17 Oct

    Trump announces that the Fed is his biggest threat as they are increasing rates ‘too quickly’ Theresa May is to visit Brussels for an EU summit today to agree on the terms of the UK-EU agreement, in order for a final decision to be made in November Netflix quarterly results show yet another rise in new subscribers, signing up 6.96 million customers in this quarter, totaling a global amount of 137.1 million Canada becomes the second country to legalise the use of Cannabis and Marijuana Spot Gold market trend starts to incline, breaking out of its previous month’s bearish position above $1210 to $1219. IMF had arranged to attend a conference in the Middle East for October 23rd to 25th, however has now postponed the trip with no further explanation given China’s holdings of US Treasury securities declined yet again for a third month, plummeting its holdings by around $6billion to $1.165trillion in comparison to last years at $1.2trillion US stocks rise rapidly as some of the largest US companies announced strong quarterly results, helping regain the downward fall shown last week. This includes the Dow Jones, which surged around 550 points/2.2% and the S&P increasing by over 1.9% Asian overnight: Asia Pacific markets managed to follow the US and European lead overnight, with Japanese and Australian markets in particular leading the way higher. Interestingly, Chinese and Hong Kong markets were relatively muted, highlighting the continued fears surrounding growth in the region after Trump threatened yet another round of tariffs on Sunday. The level of debt to GDP in China has hit ‘alarming levels’, as a great difference is seen between reported investments and actual off-balance sheet debt. It is reported at estimates of highs of 30 trillion to 40 trillion Yuan ($4.34trillion to $5.78 trillion). According to analysts, this is mainly caused due to local Chinese governments investing deeply in infrastructure and funding in order to encourage economic growth UK, US and Europe: The UK is back in focus today, with inflation data likely to build upon yesterday’s jobs numbers to build a picture of the pressures on the BoE. With average earnings on the rise, the predicted fall in inflation could actually provide a positive differential between wages and the cost of living, thus raising real wages. UK wages grow at their quickest pace in nearly 10 years. The level of pay rose by 3.1% from the three months prior to August and a fall of 47,000 to 1.36million in unemployment levels.The EU summit will shift the market mindset back to Brexit, with the EU having allowed Theresa May the opportunity to find a solution to break the deadlock. In the US, keep an eye out for housing data, with building permits and housing starts being released. However, the big release comes later on, with the Fed due to release their latest monetary policy minutes. Crude traders will also be keeping a keen eye on the Crude inventories data following substantial build-ups over the past two weeks. The Fed to release their latest monetary policy minutes later today Results from further investigation, in regards to the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, may show greater strain on how the US and Saudi Arabian relationship will be effected. This has caused three large banks including HSBC, Credit Suisse and Standard Chartered to pull out of Saudi’s Future Investment Initiative event in Riyadh. Among these, Google’s cloud division, Mastercard, JP Morgan and many others have also decided that they are not attending the event. South Africa: Upbeat US corporate earnings is seeing the tech sector leading gains in the worlds largest economy (the US). The dollar has however firmed up a bit, putting some pressure on commodity prices and the rand. BHP Billiton is down 0.7% in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. Naspers, which has roughly a 20% weighting in the Top40 Index, is expected to open higher this morning in lieu of the improved sentiment surrounding tech sector stocks. Our local market will look to Retail Sales data at 1pm today for for guidance as to the health of South Africa's retail sector. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am - UK CPI (September): CPI to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.5% MoM, from 2.7% and 0.7%, while core CPI rises 1.8% YoY and 2.1%. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone CPI (September): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (September): starts expected to fall by 3.5% YoY, and permits to rise 1.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 12 October): forecast to see a 1 million barrel rise in inventories. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 7pm – US FOMC minutes: the committee’s decision to raise rates will be revealed in more detail, providing volatility for the US dollar and equities. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Afrimat expects earnings per share and headline earnings per share, for the interim period to be between 92 cents and 97 cents per share (2017: EPS of 102.4 cents per share and HEPS of 102.2 cents per share), reflecting a decrease of between 5% and 11% on the previous period. Pearson said revenue was flat for the first nine months of the year, and the firm has reiterated its annual profit guidance. Barratt Developments has made a strong start to the year, with a 12.4% rise in forward sales, to £3.15 billion compared to £2.8 billion a year earlier. Mediclinic said that first-half revenue fell 1% to £1.4 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was down 8% to £21 million. Lyft has hired JP Morgan to lead its IPO for 2019, potentially increasing its value to over $15billion BlackRock’s stock falls by over 5% due to their third-quarter revenue results falling below expected results, totalling at $3.576billion in comparison to $3.648billion. Nevertheless, BlackRock published earnings per share at $7.52, in comparison to an expectation of $6.84 Audi to be fined £700million/$800million as an investigation occurred in relation to a diesel emission scandal Morgan Stanley increased more than 5% after the announcement of improved results in earnings. This led to earnings per share at $1.17 rather than the forecasted results of $1.01 Goldman Sachs had reached a higher level than estimates in profitability levels, resulting in $8.65billion of revenue from an estimated $8.4billion. This results in levels of $6.28 per share in earnings, from its estimates of $5.38. Volvo shares decline by 5% due to an announcement explaining potential emissions failure, with vehicles emitting illegal levels of nitrogen oxide Dollar Tree’s stock increased to highs of 7.1% after investor Carl Icahn had taken a stake in the company Uber targeting $120billion valuation for next year, as Wall Street banks advise that its worth more than three times the automaker Ford IBM revenue decline to $18.8billion in the third quarter, falling by 2.1% against expected results Shares of Tencent faces an extreme decline of 40% from January, eliminating more than $230billion in market value BillerudKorsnas upgraded to buy at SEB Equities Coca-Cola HBC raised to hold at Wood & Company Hellenic Petroleum raised to overweight at Pantelakis KPN upgraded to overweight at Barclays ConvaTec cut to underperform at Credit Suisse Handelsbanken downgraded to sell at DNB Markets Michelin downgraded to neutral at Goldman Safran downgraded to underperform at Jefferies IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. Chinese stocks decline and the renminbi devalued overnight, despite the PBoC reducing requirements for capital reserves. China's central bank to cut down Reserve Requirement Ratio, releasing 1.2tn Yuan in liquidity, and putting 750bn Yuan ($109bn or £83bn) in cash into the financial system. CSI300 down 3.7%. The Australian ASX also saw sell offs moving the mining and finance centric index down 1.2%. US employment figures out on Friday caused a flurry of Treasury sell offs, however the coming weeks agenda is likely to remain dominated by bond market news. Brazilian Presidential Candidate Jair Bolsonaro wins first round of votes with 46% to Fernando Haddad with 29%. The second vote to be held on the 28th October. Oil drops as US considers granting some waivers on Iran crude sanctions. LME Week kicks off on the 08/10/2018 Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,200.31 an ounce, with US gold futures falling 0.1% to $1,204.40 an ounce Cryptocurrencies continue their range bound movements, with bitcoin priced at $6550 and ether maintaining $225 Schroders in talks with Lloyds for wealth sector collaboration, with Lloyds putting £13bn into the new joint venture. Asian overnight: Chinese markets were the big mover over the weekend, with a decision from the PBoC to cut the reserve requirement ratios for banks driving the Shanghai and Shenzhen composite markets roughly 3% lower. This should raise the amount of free cash flowing around the economy, yet also highlights that the government expects to see further economic impact from the ongoing trade war with the US. We also saw losses in Australian and Hong Kong markets, with Japan closed due to a national holiday. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, it looks like a relatively stable start to the week, with holidays in the US and Canada meaning that volumes are likely to be relatively low. The one notable event from Europe has already occurred, with German industrial production falling unexpectedly to -0.3%, from -1.3%. Copper, a bellwether metal for global growth and a strong economy, has seen a 14% sell off whilst zinc sits at an even more significant 22%. LME Week kicks off today, with the exchange hosting a number of events for representatives of the supply side chain to discuss macro events and trends. Today sees a host of high profile speakers and an interactive discussion panel look at market trends and issues facing the metal industry today. It comes at an interesting time for the commodities industry as metal markets have been whipsawed by trade war tensions, an emerging markets sell off, and a strengthening US dollar. Copper, a bellwether metal for global growth and a strong economy, has seen a 14% sell off whilst zinc sits at an even more significant 22%. Those who are bullish on the broader asset class will be hoping the market focuses once more on true supply and demand fundamentals, agreement for which are still heavily weighted on the ‘strong demand’ side, rather than the political uncertainty. BMO Capital Markets stated “We have seen such disconnects before; [between fundamentals and price] however, they have tended to last only a few weeks. The current example has lasted several months, and every time it looks as though the macro headwinds have blown themselves out, they return once more.” South Africa: The dollar is firmer, commodity prices trade lower and the rand is weaker this morning. BHP Billiton is trading 2.8% lower, suggestive of an initial decline for locally listed resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 1.3% in Asia, suggestive of a weak start for major holding company Naspers. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Schroders has confirmed that it has been in discussions regarding a possible merger with Lloyds Banking Group. No further details were provided. Dechra Pharmaceuticals has said that it has acquired Caledonian Holdings for £4.4 million. Daily Mirror and Daily Star publisher Reach reported a 7% drop in like-for-like revenues for the third quarter, although revenue rose 21% overall. Axa upgraded to outperform at KBW Henkel upgraded to buy at Goldman Iliad upgraded to neutral at Macquarie Intu upgraded to buy at Citi Investec upgrade Vodacom to buy Investec upgrade Mediclinic to buy Boskalis downgraded to sell at ABN Amro Bank Ceconomy downgraded to add at AlphaValue IAG downgraded to neutral at Citi Tesco downgraded to add at AlphaValue IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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