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  1. The African swine fever disease has reached Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, including the world’s biggest producer of Pork, China. A prediction from the Japanese bank Nomura, is that this could cause prices to rise by 78% in China by 2020, to 33 yuan per kilogram from 18.5 yuan Senior US and China officials to organise more face-to-face trade talks, aiming to reach a deal by early May and to sign at the end of that month North Korea claims it has test-fired a new weapon with a ‘powerful warhead’, its first test since Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump’s talks which ended without an agreement Pinterest, expected to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, announced its IPO at $19 a share, higher than its original price range between $15 and $17. Asia Pacific markets decline, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.62 percent, Hang Seng decreasing by 0.6 percent, Shanghai composite and Shenzhen component dropping 0.23 percent and 0.34 percent respectively, and the Shenzhen composite declining 0.261 percent. Facebook announce it could have ‘unintentionally uploaded’ email contacts of up to 1.5million users who signed up since May 2016 without permission or knowledge Asian overnight: Asia followed US markets lower, as the global equity rally paused for breath, while weakening export demand in Japan hit sentiment there, causing a 0.9% drop for the Topix. Chinese markets also fell, but the Aussie rose after the Australian economy added more jobs than forecast in March. UK, US and Europe: Global PMIs come into focus today, with eurozone and US figures released in the wake of a poorer Japanese number this morning. Pinterest has priced its IPO at $19 per share, above the previously indicated range but still lower than in private funding rounds two years ago.. South Africa: Weaker than expected US corporate earnings have seen the US lead global equity markets slightly lower this morning. Newswires are reporting that the US and China are looking to sign a new trade deal early on in May. The dollar has strengthened and with it we see commodity prices trading mostly lower and the rand slightly weaker. Tencent Holdings is down 1% in Asia, suggestive of a negative start for major holding company Naspers. The BHP Group is down 00.2% in Australia, suggestive of a flat to marginally lower start for local miners. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.15am – 9am French, German, eurozone PMIs (April, flash): German mfg PMI to rise to 45 from 44.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK retail sales (March): sales to rise 3.3% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US retail sales (March): expected to rise 0.3% from -0.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (April, flash):manufacturing PMI to fall to 51.8 from 52.4, and services PMI to fall to 52.6 from 55.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Unilever expects full-year underlying sales growth to be in the lower half of the 3-5% range previously forecast, as Q1 sales grew 3.1%. Funding Circle reported a 23% rise in originations for Q1, while loans under management rose 44% to £3.4 billion. Countryside upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan ING FP raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley Ludwig Beck upgraded to buy at Montega Vopak upgraded to hold at Bank Degroof Petercam ASML downgraded to hold at Nord/LB Ericsson Downgraded to Sell at SEB Equities Nordex downgraded to neutral at Goldman Proximus downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. EU agrees to postpone Brexit until 22 May if MPs approve a deal next week, otherwise the UK will leave by 12 April, a much shorter deadline Levi Strauss shares rocket, with initial public offering above expectations at $17, and closing at $22.5 China to potentially miss out on $5.5trillion growth opportunity in digital trade if they do not build effort on data privacy and intellectual property protection issues Uber to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is predicted its initial public offering in April, at a value as high as $120billion European stocks mixed following the worry of the Federal Reserve abandoned plans to raise interest rates this year. The FTSE 100 set to open 28 points down, Dax 20 points lower but the CAC to trade higher by 2 points and FTSE MIB to jump 16 points Passwords of Facebook users stored in writing and were accessible to around 200,000 employees, back dating since 2012 Garuda Indonesia to potentially scrap its multi-billion dollar order for 49 Boeing 737 Max 8 jets, following the recent incidents Asian overnight: Another mixed session in Asia, where falls in China and Hong Kong were offset by strength in Japan and Australia, follows on from a strong rebound in the US, where tech stocks lead the way higher. Some trade war concerns are tempering gains, but risk appetite is enjoying a general recovery. UK, US and Europe: The UK now has until mid-April to sort a Brexit deal with the EU, or it must decide whether to take part in EU elections. A longer extension is available if the UK does take part, but the mid-April deadline piles on the pressure on MPs who have until now held out against agreeing a deal. Economic data today is dominated by flash PMIs, along with Canadian CPI and US existing home sales. South Africa: Global equity markets are are trading mixed to modestly higher this morning as central banks (particularly the US Fed) all look to be taking a more dovish stance this week. The dollar has weakened post the FOMC guidance on Wednesday and in turn we have seen some dollar weakness, a slight uptick in commodity prices and some strength returning to the ZAR. Tencent Holdings is down 1% in Asia, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. The BHP Group is flat on the day, suggestive of a similar start for local resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMI (March, flash):overall, activity in services is expected to weaken again but German manufacturing expected to improve. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 12.30pm – Canada CPI (February):inflation to rise 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY, and core CPI to hold at 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 1.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (March, flash): service PMI to fall to 54.3 and manufacturing to rise to 54.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2pm – US existing home sales (February): sales fell 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Senior said that its aerospace division has been selected by Saab to supply components for the Boeing T-X advanced pilot training system. Smiths saw first-half profit fall 13% to £174 million, while revenue rose 2% to £1.57 billion. The firm will spin off its medical business into a separate company. Sanne reported a 5.8% rise in first-half pre-tax profit, to £23.7 million, and revenue was up 26% to £143 million. Aggreko upgraded to buy at Stifel Alstria Office upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan EDP upgraded to buy at Goldman Pearson upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan ADO Properties downgraded to hold at ING Lagardere cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley Ophir Energy downgraded to hold at Jefferies Wacker Chemie downgraded to hold at LBBW IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Chinese factory activity reduces for the third month in a row with Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for February. A reading above 50 shows expansion Rolls-Royce announces a pre-tax loss of £2.9billion for 2018, after a profit of £3.89billion in the previous year Minister George Eustice quits the government in relation to Theresa May’s promise allowing MPs to vote on delaying Brexit, if the deal is rejected Asia stocks slightly higher with the Hang Seng higher by 0.45 percent, Nikkei 225 increasing 1.14 percent and ASX 200 by 0.46 percent US GDP beats expectations as results showed the US economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the last quarter of 2018. Although this showed a positive result, Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 69.16 points, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining around 0.3 percent MSCI to quadruple the weighting of Chinese mainland shares which could attract over $80billion of new foreign inflows Pakistan to release Indian pilot as a gesture of peace, however, Indian military officials declined to confirm whether they will de-escalate the conflict Asian overnight: Asian markets traded higher overnight, with particular focus being placed on Chinese shares after MSCI tripled it’s weighting for Chinese shares within their flagship emerging markets index. This is expected to greatly increase demand for ‘A-shares’ when implemented next-August. UK, US and Europe: Market on the whole had been relatively downbeat, despite the better than expected US GDP number yesterday. However, there is a hope that this optimism shown through the overnight session will impact sentiment closer to home. A host of data-points are being released throughout the day, yet markets will be paying particular attention to a few choice figures. In Europe, keep an eye out for the UK manufacturing PMI figure, alongside the eurozone CPI inflation reading. Meanwhile, markets will also keep a close eye out for proceedings in Italy, as the government plans to lay out their contravertial budget. While US markets will be watching for the latest core PCE price index, and ISM manufacturing PMI figure. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (February, final): downward revisions to these may put pressure on the euro. Market to watch: EUR crosses 8.55am – German unemployment (February): unemployment rate to hold at 5%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK mfg PMI (February): index to fall to 52.5 from 52.8. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone CPI (January, flash): YoY CPI to be 1.5%, and core 1.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 10am – Italy government presents Budget: the budget argument between Rome and Brussels goes on, and if this budget suggests higher spending in Italy we may see a fresh round of disagreement. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q4): QoQ rate to be 0.4% from 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 1.30pm – US personal spending (December): expected to rise 0.1% MoM from 0.4%. Market to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (February): forecast to fall to 56.2 from 56.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades William Hill posted a pre-tax loss for the year, with the firm blaming it on a £882.8 million noncash impairment leveraged on their retail business in the wake of recent UK regulatory changes. Before this charge, the firm had seen a rise in revenues, from £1.59 billion, to £1.62 billion Rightmove saw profits rise to £198 million last year, up from £178 in 2017. The firm has managed to continue raising their average revenue per advertiser number, while now stands at £1,005. The firm saw greater traffic, and revenues, despite the widely perceived slowdown in the UK housing market WPP expects organic growth to fall 2% in 2019, with the firm in the midst of a three-year turnaround project in the wake of Martin Sorrell’s departure. The firm saw a 0.4% fall in underlying net sales in 2018, with the figure expected to be closer to 2% in 2019 Tesla to finally launch the Model 3 which will start off at $35,000, however, Musk believes they will not turn a profit until the second quarter B&M European Upgraded to Top Pick at RBC Genel Upgraded to Outperform at BMO Keywords Studios Rated New Buy at Liberum Team17 Rated New Buy at Liberum Rio Tinto Downgraded to Hold at DZ Bank Fresnillo Cut to Underperform at Macquarie Sumo Rated New Sell at Liberum Privanet Downgraded to Sell at Inderes IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un summit cut down to 30 minutes with no agreement reached and the joining signing ceremony cancelled, however, both parties are “looking forward to meeting in the future” Tensions rise as India and Pakistan confirm attacks on both sides, with India admitting to conducting strikes against a militant camp on Tuesday and Pakistan claiming to have shot down Indian jets. This has led to worries of a potential South Asia war with the US, France, Australia and China urging for the situation to not be escalated Jeremy Corbyn to back another EU referendum after his Brexit plan was defeated by 323 votes to 240 on Wednesday, however, will also push for “other options” including a general election Oil prices fall slightly with Brent Crude at $66.15 per barrel, down 24 cents from the latest close, and WTI crude oil at $56.92 per barrel, down 2 cents Labour suspends MP Chris Williamson amid remarks about its party’s handling of anti-Semitism, which he now “deeply regrets” UK production of cars fall in January, its eighth month in a row. Figures show a fall of 18.2% in overall production and a decline of 21.4% in output for destined for exports Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen continues to make allegation against Trump, calling him “racist, conman and a cheat”. Cohen also claims that Trump wanted him to lie about a property deal in Moscow, which took place during the presidential campaign, and also provides evidence of Trump giving reimbursements for hush money in regards to an affair with a porn star Asian overnight: Australian stocks provided the one bright light overnight, with most of the other Asian markets stumbling in the wake pessimistic comments from the chief negotiator in relation to US-China trade. Robert Lighthizer warned that China must do more than simply buy more US goods to avert another breakdown in trade between the two countries. We also saw Donald Trump break off talks with Kim Jong-Un, with the two sides failing to find common ground in the push to make the rogue state denuclearise. On the data front, the NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys both declined further for China. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a host of eurozone CPI readings kick of the European session, ahead of a day that is likely to be dominated by the US. Keep an eye out for the Q4 GDP reading for the US in the afternoon, with markets also likely to continue the focus on the potential shift in outlook for the US-China trade talks. South Africa: The rand remains firm although is slightly off its best levels from the last few weeks. Tencent Holdings is down 0.3% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. The BHP Group is down 1.1% in Australia, suggestive of a weaker start for local diversified resource counters. This afternoon will see US Advance GDP, a major global data point data being released at 3:30pm (SA time). Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1pm – Germany CPI (February, preliminary): CPI to rise 1.5% YoY, from 1.4%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q4): QoQ growth rate to be 2.4% from 3.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (February): index to rise to 57.8 from 56.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.30pm – Japan unemployment rate (January): expected to hold at 2.4 Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Bovis Homes reported a 47.4% rise in pre-tax profit for 2018, to £168.1 million, while volumes rose 3% to 3759. The new year has begun with strong sales, up 15.7% for the same period a year earlier Hastings has increased its full-year dividend by 7%, equivalent to 59% of adjusted profits, and plans to pay out 65-75% of this metric in the future IAG expects 2019 earnings to be flat due to higher fuel costs and air traffic control disruption. Operating profit before exceptionals rose 9.5% to €3.23 billion for the year Tesla potentially lining up $2billion in loans from Chinese lenders, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, to build a massive battery and car plant in Shanghai BOX fails to meet its Q4 revenue expectations, causing share prices to fall 18%. Expected revenue was $164.2million with results showing $163.7million Weight Watchers forecasted a decrease of 10% in membership for the fourth quarter, after consumers left confused with its new name change to WW Iberdrola upgraded to add at AlphaValue Premier Oil upgraded to buy at Berenberg Symrise upgraded to outperform at MainFirst eQ upgraded to accumulate at Inderes Aareal Bank downgraded to add at AlphaValue Beiersdorf cut to sell at Independent Research CompuGroup downgraded to hold at Baader Helvea Rio Tinto downgraded to neutral at Goldman IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. HSBC fails to beat expectations for 2018 earnings, reporting 15.9 percent higher in pre-tax profit and 4.5 percent in revenue, in comparison to 2017, against the expected 23.8 percent increase in pre-tax profit and 6.28 percent for revenue Trade talks between the US and China begin today in Washington, which according to a top official from the US Chamber of Commerce, can only progress if Trump’s administration also creates ways to enforce a trade agreement Asian stocks mixed after the US were claiming that Chinese mobile network gear may cause a cybersecurity threat to countries who use their equipment. The Hang Seng index fell 0.36 percent, in comparison to Nikkei 225 which rose 0.23 percent along with the ASX 200 at 0.3 percent More Labour MPs may resign, following the seven who resigned on Monday due to the ‘frustration over the leadership’s reluctance to back another EU referendum’, unless their concerns have been heard 16 US states are filing a lawsuit against Trump’s administration in relation to the decision to declare an emergency to raise funds for a Mexican border wall Confidential US commerce department report suggests a potential tariff increase in imported autos, after Trump previously promised European Commission President that no additional tariffs will be applied on European cars for the time being Spot gold increased to $1,322.41 per ounce on Monday, its strongest level in over two weeks, whilst Palladium reached a record high of $1,449 an ounce Asian overnight: Asian markets failed to really gain traction overnight, with marginal losses in China and Hong Kong counteracted by similarly small gains in Japan and Australia. This comes despite the confirmation that the US and China will once more meet to resume trade talks in Washington on Thursday. Meanwhile, the RBA released their latest monetary policy minutes, with the bank seeing little reason to adjust policy in the near-term UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK jobs report should provide us with some form of event-based volatility, bringing the pound into focus. On the mainland, all eyes will be on the ZEW economic sentiment survey following a host of weak economic data centred around the German economy. Meanwhile, the return of the US markets should bring greater volumes and a wider driving force amid recent US market gains South Africa: Our local bourse is offsetting some of its short term gains this morning in what is expected to be a news light day. Rand is again underperforming its emerging market currency peers after news that South African Airlines will be receiving further bailout funds from government. The dollar is marginally weaker against its developed market currency counterparts, while metal prices trade mixed and oil prices trade flat on the day Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK employment data: December unemployment rate to hold at 4%, while average earnings (including bonus) expected to rise 3% from 3.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 10am – German ZEW (February): economic sentiment to fall to -18.4 from -15. Markets to watch: EUR crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades BHP posted a somewhat disappointing set of half-year results, as a raft of supply disruptions hit underlying earnings (-3%). The group saw a $600 million dent in earnings over the period, with outages across several their iron ore and copper operations. CEO Andrew Mackenzie expects to see these fortunes turn around in the second-half, with 2019 expected to bring a stronger period for the miner. HSBC failed to meet market expectations, as the US-China trade war hit the China-focused bank’s profitability. However, with a 16% rise of pre-tax profits over their 2017 number, this is a case of missing lofty market expectations rather than posting poor figures. A similar story emerges for revenues, which grew 5% over the course of the year, marginally below market expectations. Honda set to officially announce the closure of its Swindon car plant by 2022, causing a loss of around 3,500 jobs TBC Bank upgraded to buy at VTB Capital Ashtead reinstated overweight at Morgan Stanley Asiamet Resources rated new buy at Berenberg Ryanair upgraded to buy at SocGen IAG downgraded to reduce at Oddo BHF Wizz Air downgraded to hold at SocGen Nestle downgraded to sector perform at RBC Worldline downgraded to neutral at Citi IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. Bank of England believes the UK economy is set for the worst year since the financial crisis, as its growth forecasts for 2019 decline from 1.7 percent to 1.2 percent due to a slow economy and Brexit doubt Trump to sign order to ban Chinese telecommunication equipment from US wireless networks May travels to Dublin to discuss Brexit negotiations as she believes a deal could be agreed with Parliament if binding changes can be made to the backstop Asian stocks decline after concerns between the US and China trade war, as Trump refuses to meet Xi before the trade deadline. Hang Seng index fell 0.18 percent, Nikkei 225 by over 2 percent, and ASX 200 decreases by 0.34 percent Oil prices fell this morning; Brent crude futures declined 0.8 percent to $61.14 per barrel along with US Crude futures which slipped 0.85 percent to $52.19 per barrel Amazon founder Jeff Bezos accuses the National Enquirer’s parent company, American Media Inc, of blackmail, as they wanted Bezos to stop investigating how they gathered his private messages of an affair Thai King’s sister enters election as prime minister, breaking the tradition of Thai royalty staying out of politics Tata Motors shares plummet over 29 percent, lowering its current fiscal years profit margin guidance for JLR, following their biggest quarterly loss Sears saved as chairman Eddie Lampert buys the company for $5.2billion through an affiliate of his hedge fund ESL investments, saving around 45,000 jobs Senator Richard Shelby believes congressional negotiators will agree to a deal by Monday, avoiding another government shutdown Asian overnight: Hopes over a positive conclusion to US-China trade talks were dashed when Donald Trump stated that he will not be meeting his Chinese counterpart before the 1 March deadline is reached. Unsurprisingly, the prospect of another ramp up in tariffs between the worlds two biggest countries significantly dented global market confidence, with Asian markets all trading in the red (China remains on a bank holiday). The Australian dollar suffered heavy losses overnight, as the country suffered the same fate as the UK and eurozone after the RBA wrote down growth forecasts thanks to poor prospects for a US-China breakthrough. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar sees German trade balance and Canadian employment numbers take centre stage. Also keep an eye out for the latest Baker Hughes rig count. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – Canada employment data (January): 9300 jobs created last month. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.8% from 5.6%. Market to watch: CAD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades SSE has cut its earnings forecast due to a delay in receiving government support. Adjusted EPS for the year is now expected to fall 6% to 64-69p, from a previous 70-75p forecast Shaftesbury said that footfall had been ‘robust’ in the run up to Christmas and over the festive period Bankia upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse Orange Belgium upgraded to buy at ING Travis Perkins upgraded to outperform at R Thales upgraded to buy at Citi Centrica downgraded to neutral at Citi Gem Diamonds downgraded to underperform at BMO Proximus downgraded to sell at ING Unite Group downgraded to hold at Liberum IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. Amazon announced a rise in investments, causing shares to fall over 5 percent , however beats earnings per share expectations and revenue, reporting $6.04 per share in comparison to an estimate of $5.68 per share and a revenue of $72.4billion versus %71.9billion. Caxin Manufacturing PMI falls below expectations to 48.3 in January in comparison to 49.7 in December, its lowest reading since 2016 Stocks in Asia mostly traded higher, with the Shanghai Composite increasing around 1.3 percent, Shenzhen component and Shenzhen Composite also rising by around 1.7 percent, the opposite to the Hang Seng Index which fell by around 0.18 percent along with the ASX 200 down 0.03 percent Stocks on the S&P 500 jumps 0.9%, totalling a rise of 7.87 percent this month, closing out their best January in three decades. Nasdaq Composite also rises 1.37 percent but the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes just below the flatline. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, reached out to Trump in a letter in hopes of accomplishing a trade agreement before the March deadline. Deutsche Bank fails to meet profit expectations as its 2018 full-year profit totalled 341million Euros ($390million), compared to analysts estimates of 461million euros Singapore and China to build a city in China to become a home for 500,000 people by ‘converting farmlands into a sustainable urban development’ The amount of Gold purchased by central banks, in volume, reaches its highest level since 1967. It is estimated of around 651.5 metric tons were brought in 2018, 74 percent higher than 2017 Herman Cain, former presidential candidate under consideration for the FED. Cain previously served at the bank for around 7 years, before moving into the political world, running for president in 2011 Senator Bernie Sanders suggests to increase the estate tax levels of those who earn more than $3.5million, affecting an estimate of 0.2 percent of the country. The current tax levels affect those who inherit more than $11million GE shares increase to its highest in 9 years by 18%, after posting better than expected revenue of $33.3billion in its fourth quarter Asian overnight: A mixed affair overnight has seen gains in Chinese markets overshadow the more subdued downside seen throughout the likes of Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia. Much of the gains in China can be attributed to bullish comments from Donald Trump, who tweeted that China stands ready to import huge amounts of US soybeans. The problem is that China already imported a massive amount of soybeans to begin with, but at least it is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately we also saw some bad news for the Chinese, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI declining further into contraction territory with a reading of 48.3, from 49.7. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the manufacturing theme looks set to continue, with eurozone (revised) and UK PMI (initial) readings for the sector released during the morning. Also keep an eye out for the eurozone CPI inflation reading, which is expected to decline into a nine-month low. Finally, the US looks set to spark significant volatility, with the release of the jobs report in the afternoon. Last month saw a huge payrolls number, and thus this month expects to see a more subdued figure. Also look out for the manufacturing PMI surveys from the US. On the corporate front, Chevron and Exxon Mobil round off a busy week for earnings. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK mfg PMI (January): previous reading 54.2. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (January, flash): prices rose 1.6% in December. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (January): 183K jobs expected to have been created, from 312K, while average hourly earnings rise 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (January): indices to fall to 54 from 54.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades TalkTalk said that annual earnings would fall short of forecasts, due to investment spending and accounting changes. Guidance was £245-250 million, below the consensus of £259 million. RPC reported flat earnings, with operating profit for Q3 similar to a year earlier, although revenues rose 1.4% to £894 million. The firm said it would engage with Berry Global, which unveiled a competing bid for the firm yesterday. Puma attempts to compete with Nike, releasing a self-lacing shoe in 2020, where individuals can tighten or loosen the laces using an app Daimler upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley H&M upgraded to reduce at Handelsbanken Rio Tinto upgraded to add at AlphaValue Rentokil upgraded to buy at Citi Adidas downgraded to neutral at UBS Close Brothers downgraded to sell at Citi Intertek downgraded to hold at Jefferies Mediaset downgraded to underweight at Barclays IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. A mixed session for the Asian markets this morning, following the report of the US cancelling the trade meet with Chinese officials due to outstanding disagreements over intellectual property rules. Shanghai composite, Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 rose slightly in comparison to ASX 200, Shenzhen component and Shenzhen composite which saw a slight decline US stocks fall overnight as the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by over 300 points, the S&P 500 by 1.4% and Nasdaq Composite falling 1.9% A delay in Brexit is the most likely option, according to the Former Chancellor, however, May believes the right way to rule out the no-deal is to approve the agreement Japan could still win the competition against China for economic and commercial influence in infrastructure investments, as they may not reach the same volume of China’s investments, but hold excellent reputation and local impact European Commission to potentially block the deal of a European rail champion between the French and German companies as this could cause limited competition US Oil shows slight recovery this morning and it fell 2.3% on Tuesday as China releases its weakest economic expansion. IMF’s outlook for global economic growth has now declined to 3.5% from an expected 3.7%. UK Employment rate reported at its highest level since 1971 of 32.54million Sony to move its headquarters to the Netherlands from the UK to avoid any potential issues which could be caused by Brexit Dyson to move its headquarters from UK to Singapore Trial against four former executives of Barclays starts today in relation to conspiracy to commit fraud Mastercard faced with a fine of £504m from the European Commission for anti-competitive behaviour Asian overnight: The recent strength in equities suffered a check yesterday, as trade war fears resurfaced thanks to Washington’s decision to reject a Chinese offer of preparatory talks. Combined with weaker Chinese GDP and an IMF global growth downgrade earlier in the week, investors turned more cautious. UK, US and Europe: Markets in Europe face a mixed start, as the bearish sentiment carries over into the European session. With most of the elite in Davos, the calendar is relatively light, with just eurozone consumer confidence out this afternoon. South Africa: Global equity markets are trading mixed today following yesterday's decline which was induced by renewed fears of a slowdown in global growth. The Bank of Japan left lending rates unchanged today whilst lowering their inflation outlook. Major themes in the market remain the same i.e. trade wars, US government shutdown, Chinese stimulus measures and Brexit negotiations. Oil and precious metal prices trade relatively flat today, while base metals trade mostly lower this morning. The rand is marginally stronger this morning although remains around its weakest levels of the last two weeks. Tencent is trading 1.13% lower in Asia this morning and is expected to weigh on major holding company, Naspers' share price. BHP billiton trades 0.4% lower in Australia, expectant of marginal weakness to follow on the South African listing. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash reading):expected to rise to -4.3 from -6.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades WH Smith reported a 6% rise in sales for the 20 weeks to 19 January, although on a like-for-like basis sales were flat. The firm said it remained on track to deliver £9 million of cost savings for the year. RPC Group has accepted a £3.2 billion takeover offer from Apollo Management, with Apollo offering 782p in cash for each RPC share. Burberry saw a 1% rise in like-for-like sales for the 13 weeks to 29 December, and it left guidance unchanged for the full year. Patisserie Valerie falls into administration, closing 70 cafes immediately as it did not have enough funds to meet its debt Carols Ghosn, ex chairman of Nissan, request for bail has been declined AcomeA Paesi Emergenti upgraded to buy at Citi Grenke upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe Logitech upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan PGS upgraded to buy at SocGen Equinor cut to underperform at Credit Suisse Nibe downgraded to hold at SEB Equities Pandora downgraded to underperform at RBC Thales downgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. US and China meeting in Beijing 7th - 8th Jan, to hold trade talks at vice ministerial level, looking to end the trade war as both economies are affected Theresa May warns the UK of an ‘uncharted territory’ if the Brexit deal is rejected by Parliament. May announces that she has agreed to some ‘changes’ whilst talking to European leaders including specific measures for Northern Ireland, a greater role for Parliament negotiations on the next stage of the future UK-EU relation and additional assurances over the Irish border backstop. MPs are expected to vote on the 14th or 15th January. Trump continues to demand $5.6billion funding in order to build the wall on the Mexican border, and threats to declare a national emergency. Trump announces the idea to build the wall out of steel instead of concrete, potentially hoping the Democrats could therefore claim it is not a wall Asia stocks trade higher Monday morning with the Nikkei 225 rising over 2.4%, Hang Seng Index by 0.66% and ASX 200 up 1.14% Huawei releases a new ‘next-generation’ chipset, despite facing political headwinds, in hope of ‘attracting customers by making good products’, according to its chief strategy marketing officer and director of the board Apple create deal with its formal top rival Samsung, to which Samsung TVs will support Apple iTunes for movies and TV purchases and playback Tesla to hold its ground-breaking ceremony in Shanghai, its first non-US factory. It is predicted to start partial production in the second half of 2019 Asian overnight: Asian markets have carried on the bullish theme exhibited throughout Friday, with optimism surrounding the direction of trade talks coupled with relatively dovish comments from Fed chair Powell on Friday. With representatives from the US and China meeting for their first formal round of trade talks for months, we are seeing resurgent hopes of a potential breakthrough in relations. With the potential for a substantial risk-on shift, it comes as no surprise to see the safe haven Yen losing ground, helping boost Japanese stocks to over 2% up on the session. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, keep an eye out for German and eurozone retail sales figures, while the US session sees the Canadian Ivy PMI and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading dominate proceedings. Obviously with few major events of note, the ongoing wider themes will continue to play into the investor mindset. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (December): expected to fall to 56.7 from 57.2. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (December): forecast to fall to 59.7 from 60.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Dunelm said that it sees profit for the first half ‘modestly’ ahead of forecasts, but the full year outlook remains difficult due to high levels of uncertainty. Like-for-like sales were up 9% overall for the 13 weeks to 29 December. Staffline has won contracts worth £104.6 million from UK prison tenders. Hays Upgraded to Buy at HSBC Tullow Upgraded to Outperform at RBC Lundin Petroleum Upgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Magnit Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan AB InBev Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman HSBC Downgraded to Sell at Citi Centrica Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies InterContinental Hotels Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. House Democrats won votes to end the partial government shutdown, however, has not brought Congress any closer to resolve Trumps demand for $5billion for a wall. Apple stocks fell on Thursday to $142.19, its lowest price level since July 2017. This pushed its market valuation behind the market cap of Alphabet, as it drops $450billion in market value China and US announced plans to hold trade talks on 7-8 Jan, at a Vice ministerial level in hopes of ending the trade war which has affected both economies and financial markets Asia markets trade at mixed levels; Nikkei 225 falling 2.68% in comparison to a rise of 1.3% for the Hang Seng index, 1.81% for the Shanghai Composite, 2.24% and 2.409% for Shenzhen Composite and Component, respectively US Stocks continued to fall on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 660.02 points, or 2.8%, S&P 500 by 2.47% and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 3%, following on from Apples revenue warning, Apples worst session since 2013 Qualcomm posted 1.34billion Euros of security bonds to implement a court order in relation to banning sales of some Apple iPhones in Germany Global merger and acquisition deals fall to the lowest since 2010, including the Chinese purchase of US firms which declined by 94.6% to $3billion Brazil President broadcasts a plan to privatise 12 airports and 4 sea ports in order to raise initial investments of around $1.85billion UK, US and Europe: One bill which passed by House Democrats will ‘fund eight closed US departments through 30th September and to reopen the Department of Homeland Security through the beginning of February, however, have still not come to a conclusion on Trumps demand for the wall. As the measures do not agree to his demand, Trump has refused to sign as they believe it is a waste of time; "The President cannot accept legislation that provides unnecessary funding for wasteful programs while ignoring the Nation’s border security needs,” the Trump administration responded. Looking ahead, US non-farm payrolls is to be announced on Friday at 13:30 GMT, which expects the NFP to increase by 177,000 in December, in comparison to November’s 155,000, however, still under the six month average. Unemployment rate is predicted to be unchanged, and therefore remain at 3.7% Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Luckin to try and overtake Starbucks in China, to become the largest coffee chain by amount of global outlets, as they plan to open 2500 new stores this year Bristol-Myers Squibb plans to purchase Celgene at a value of $74billion IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. Facebook Inc. works on its plans to create a cryptocurrency allowing money to be transferred on Whatsapp, focusing on the remittances market in India first Chinese stocks become one of the worst performers globally as the Shanghai composite and Shenzhen index fall over 20% and 30% respectively this year US Futures show a slight incline in performance for stocks on Wall Street, following a fall for the second day in a row. Dow Jones Industrial Average suggests an opening gain over around 113.40 on Friday morning, following the decline on Thursday of 464.06 points. S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are also pointed to opening gains, after they decreased by 1.58% and 1.6% respectively on Thursday Nissan Chairman re-arrested on new allegations of aggravated breach of trust which suspects that Ghosn “made the automaker shoulder personal investment losses of around $16.6million, incurred in 2008”. The court rejected a request to extend his detention, meaning Ghosn could potentially apply to be released on bail The Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, is to step down at the end of February, as he believes Trump should “have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours” Former Canadian Diplomat, Michael Kovrig, was taken whilst in China following the arrest on Huawei CFO, has now been detained but denied legal representation Hewlett Packard Enterprise and IBM had its network breached by hackers working on behalf of China’s Ministry of State Security, for access to hack into clients computers Trump administration plans to pull thousands of troops from Afghanistan, in hope that around 7000 troops can be sent home within months Boris Johnson cleared of breaking the Tories’ code of conduct, following a remark made about women wearing burkas Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, with Japanese markets leading the declines amid a flight to the safe haven Yen. Fears over a government shutdown are now front and centre of the collective investor mindset, with Donald Trump threatening to veto a bill funding the government unless he receives funds to build a border wall with Mexico. On the data front, Japanese national CPI declines to 0.9% from 1%, marking the first fall in inflation for six-months UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the pound remains a key focus for traders, with UK current account, GDP (Q3 Final), public sector net borrowing, and the BoE quarterly bulletin all being released. In the afternoon, keep an eye out for Canadian GDP and retail sales, with the Canadian dollar also relatively volatile around the recent sharp declines in energy prices. The US also looks set for a busy end to the week, with core durable goods, GDP, core PCE price index, and personal spending all worth following Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK GDP (Q3, final): growth expected to be 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (November): forecast to rise 1.2% MoM and up 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Anglo American has resumed mining operations at Minas-Rio in Brazil. Diageo has sold a portfolio of 19 brands to Sazerac for $550 million. In partnership with Dada-JD Daojia, a logistics company, Walmart are testing on a smaller store in Chengdu to focus on lower-tier cities, as online delivery services show an increase in China Tencent shares increase around 4.2% following the news that new games have been cleared for sale, after China stopped approving new titles in March Ontex upgraded to neutral at Goldman British Land downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue Headlam downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt Klepierre downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue Telenor cut to hold at SEB Equities IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. Asia stocks were higher Wednesday morning; Nikkei 225 rising over 2%, ASX 200 up by 1.25% and Hang Seng Index around 1.36%. This was followed by the news of China to cut US car tariffs from the planned 40% to 15%, the same tax charge on car imports from other countries May traveled on Tuesday back to Europe to try and gain a few more concessions from the European side, in regards to the Brexit deal. It is rumoured that 48 letters of no longer supporting May have been sent. May to face a vote of no confidence on Wednesday between 18:00 GMT and 20:00 GMT. Canada grants bail by setting a $10million CAD bail for Huawei CFO, Meng Wanzhou, following charges of “improperly taking payments from Iran in violation of sanctions against the country” EU Ambassador states that technology transfers should be regulated as EU companies should not be obliged to transfer technology to gain access to the Chinese market US President, Trump, announced that he would intervene in the case against Huawei CFO if this could contribute to closing a trade deal with China New charges are filed against Malaysian former Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and former CEO of 1MDB, in relation to alleged tampering of the audit report and theft of billions of dollars from the fund Trump comments on the expected rise in interest rates from the Federal Reserve as a “mistake”, as Trump needs the flexibility of lower rates to support the trade war between the US and China Saudi Arabia convinced two dozen oil producers to cut production levels as part of a “Saudi first” policy France budget deficit to potentially increase as President Macron announces a plan to raise minimum wage by 100Euros ($114) a month and overtime will not be taxed, as well as a reverse on tax hike on pensions for those earning less than 2000Euros a month UK government to spend an extra £100million to support the renewable energy projects in Africa, as well as committing to invest £5.8billion in international climate finance by 2020 Asian overnight: Asian markets have enjoyed a bullish session overnight, as improved sentiment over US-China relations is helping drive a more positive outlook for risk assets. A Chinese reduction in tariffs on US car imports looks like the first in many steps, while the US seem to be softening their stance to the Huawei CFO who has been granted bail in Canada. ...the EU industrial production release represents the European event of note, while US CPI brings inflation back into the picture UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the eurozone industrial production release represents the only European event of note, while US CPI brings inflation issues back into the picture. Given the recent deterioration in energy prices, it comes as no surprise to see that the headline CPI reading is expected to decline this month. Finally, watch out for the crude inventories figure, which is expected to follow up last week’s surprisingly sharp decline with another negative reading this time around. It's also worth looking ahead at tomorrow, when the European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi, is expected to confirm an end to QE (quantitative easing) in the form of 2.6 trillion euros worth of bond buybacks. The process, echoed by many central banks such as the US Fed and the Bank of England, has been hotly debated within the eurozone where more stable northern states didn't want to take on the political risk of weaker southern areas. When it comes to energies, a warmer winter is expected to send LNG prices to a 6 month low, whilst forwards buying earlier this year - notably over summer - haven't helped. Whilst heating demand normally pushes the price action of energies up (as seen last year) it looks like some unsold cargoes are still looking for a home. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US CPI (November): CPI to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 December): stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Rolls-Royce expects earnings and cash flow for the year to be at the upper end of previous guidance. The firm’s restructuring remains on target, it added. British American Tobacco said that it was on track to meet targets, as performance in combustibles and vaping offset weakness thanks to FX markets. Superdry has issued a profit warning, saying that warm weather in November and December had hit performance, although first half pre-tax profit rose to £26.4 million from £9.1 million a year earlier. Deliveroo to open its first customer-facing restaurant in Hong Kong Brandlogic, a clothing brand, launched a legal claim against Bentley Motors, for “badly damaging its business” Facebook evacuating buildings in Silicon Valley due to bomb threat, but later found no explosives in the building Alfa Financial upgraded to hold at Berenberg Rational upgraded to buy at HSBC Siegfried upgraded to buy at Baader Helvea DWS downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan Man Group downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan Salvatore Ferragamo cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux Metro Bank downgraded to neutral at Citi IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. Trump reported that Brexit could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, leaving Britain unable to negotiate a free-trade agreement with the US OPEC to meet in Vienna next week to discuss levels of oil production. It is expected to be cut down by 1million to 1.5million barrels due to worries of the US-China trade war Trump announced a potential introduction of applying a 10% tariff on iPhones imported from China, which could increase to 25% on January 1st Ukraine to bring martial law for 30 days, following the attack from Russian military, wounding several sailors Asian markets trade higher with Nikkei 225 inclining by 0.8%, Shanghai composite rising 0.42%, Shenzhen up 0.62% and ASX 200 by 0.91% Brent crude oil futures rises by 2.9% to $60.48 a barrel Saudi Aramco to invest $100billion globally in chemicals within the next 10 years, as well as a prediction in the next decade of an increase in production to 23billion standard cubic feet a day from 14billion, attracting $150billion worth of investments Bitcoin declined by 81% from its last year’s peak in addition to its trading volumes, with its 24-hour volume decreasing by 61% on Monday to $19billion Goldman Sachs believes commodities could rise by 17% in the following months as the G-20 summit could be a ‘potential launchpad for raw materials’ Asian overnight: A mixed affair overnight saw losses in Chinese and Hong Kong markets, as Donald Trump raised the stakes for the upcoming talks at the G20, stating that their tariffs would be ramped up in the case of no-deal. However, Japanese and Australian markets fared much better, with a rebound in oil prices helping the ASX 200 in particular. On the data-front, Japanese BoJ core CPI rose marginally to 0.6% against expectations. UK, US and Europe: Theresa May continued to face criticism from the opposition and numerous conservative members of Parliament, however, May defends her proposals in relation to the Brexit withdrawal agreement as she believes “there is not a better deal available”, even though she confesses she is not “entirely happy” with the backstop plan to avoid a hard border. It has been confirmed that the final vote will take place around the 11th December. The US president reported that the Brexit withdrawal agreement is a “great deal for the EU”, however suggested that this could potentially threaten a UK-US trade deal, announcing that “right now, if you look at the deal, the UK may not be able to trade with us. And that wouldn’t be a good thing”. Responding to this, a Downing Street spokesman reported that the Brexit agreement would allow the UK to sign bilateral deals with countries including the US. Looking ahead, UK markets will likely have a volatile start to the day, given the number of companies releasing their earnings this morning. In the US, keep an eye out for the latest consumer confidence as the one major data release of the day. Besides that, markets are likely to focus on current themes, with Brexit, US-China relations, and the Italian budget remaining prominent. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 3pm – US consumer confidence (November): expected to fall to 136.2 from 137.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Thomas Cook said that underlying earnings for the year to September will fall to £250 million, down from £308 million a year earlier. In addition, it will suspend its full-year dividend. Net debt rose to £389 million, due to delayed bookings and non-cash items. Pennon reported a 2.9% rise in pre-tax profit for the first half, to £133.6 million, while revenue was up 3.1% at £746.7 million. Greggs upgraded expectations for the full-year, saying that a good October and November meant that full-year pre-tax profit would be at least £86 million, from a previous expectation of £72 million, in-line with last year. Shaftesbury reported a 14% rise in investment earnings to £51.7 million, while the total dividend rose 5% to 16.8p per share. General Motors to cut over 14,000 jobs and close 8 plants, reducing productivity levels in factories in the US and Canada Tesla sales in China tumble by 70% in comparison to the previous year, selling only 211 cars in October Line shares increased as much as 17% following the news of joining with Tencent. Altri upgraded to market perform at BBVA Atea upgraded to neutral at SpareBank Hikma upgraded to buy at Jefferies Iberdrola upgraded to outperform at RBC Aurubis downgraded to hold at DZ Bank NMC Health cut to underperform at Jefferies Credit Suisse cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. Dolce and Gobbana tension rises as their goods are no longer available on a few Chinese e-commerce sites, including Taobao and JD. Com. Spain threatens to vote against the Brexit deal as they request that any decisions in relation to the territory of Gibraltar to only be discussed directly with Madrid. EU negotiators are meeting today to try and resolve this before the summit taking place on Sunday Asian markets show a decline with the Shanghai composite falling 2.25%, the Shenzhen composite by 3.5% and the Hang Seng index falling 0.62% Oil prices continued to decline with the global benchmark Brent falling to $62.10 after it hit its lowest since December 2017 at $61.52 a barrel. Tension between the US and China continue as Wall Street reported that the US government are trying to persuade allies to avoid telecommunications equipment from Huawei technology Meituan Dianping shares plummet by 11.63% after posting its first earnings report since its $4.2billion IPO which occurred in September. Tencent, its main backer, also saw a decline in their shares by 1.56% International Petroleum Investment Company files a lawsuit against multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs due to a conspiracy theory of taking millions of dollars from the 1MDB fund The board of Nissan decides to remove Carlos Ghosn as Chairman in relation to accusations of significant acts of misconduct, including under-reporting compensation amounts and personal use of company assets Over half of economists believed the South African Reserve Bank would keep its repo rate at 6.5%, however on Thursday, it was agreed to increase this to 6.75% Asian overnight: A mixed session overnight saw Hong Kong and Chinese markets lower, while Australian and Japanese indices were on the rise. Tensions continue between Italian luxury fashion brand Dolce and Gobbana, causing China to react by removing D&G products from e-commerce sites. This response occurred after screenshots were found showing co-founder Stefano Gabbana using ‘crude terms’ and Instagram messages using offensive language. The brand have said their account was hacked, quoting "we have nothing but respect for China and the people of China". UK, US and Europe: Fears over a Brexit breakdown do not seem to be holding much weight at the moment as we head into the weekend’s EU summit, with Spanish threats to veto the deal over Gibraltar largely disregarded as a surmountable issue. Yesterday’s bearish European session is likely to have an impact on US sentiment today. With a host of economic readings to watch out for, it is likely to be a volatile session. European flash PMI surveys, Canadian inflation and retail sales, alongside US PMI readings should provide enough to keep things moving. Add to that the speculation over how retail is faring on one of the biggest shopping days in the year, and we have a relatively busy day ahead. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (November, flash): these are expected broadly to improve over the past month, although some weakness in the German figures may hit the euro. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – Canada CPI (October): inflation to rise 2.7% YoY from 2.2%, and rise to 0.1% from -0.4%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (November, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 56 from 55.7, while services PMI remains at 54.8. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ibstock has sold Glen-Gery, its US brick manufacturing business, for $110 million, and has confirmed that the full-year outlook was unchanged. James Fisher reported a 14% rise in revenue for the ten months to 31 October, compared to a year earlier. Centrica, owner of British Gas, to take a hit of £70million in its first quarter of 2019 due to its new cap on energy bills Shell spending around £300million to update the plant at Bacton, increasing the production of gas by 16% Hyundai and Kia Motors being investigated in relation to its vehicle recalls which occurred in 2015 and 2017 as it is believed the recalls were not conducted properly CYBG upgraded to buy at Citi Hastings upgraded to overweight at Barclays Ibstock upgraded to buy at Peel Hunt Renault upgraded to buy at Jefferies Kingfisher downgraded to neutral at Goldman Thales downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF Avon Rubber cut to sell at Panmure Gordon IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. Brexit draft has been backed up by the cabinet where Theresa May will announce a speech on Thursday to the Parliament, however, there are assumptions that this could end with a vote of no confidence China delivering a written response to the US demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, which could potentially end the trade war between the two countries Bitcoin market capitalisation declines to its lowest level since October 2017, falling to under $100billion. Ethereum and XRP also decline by 13% and 15% respectively Oil prices fall to its lowest with Brent crude falling almost 7% and US Oil over 7% ASEAN summit starts without Trump in sight, leading to beliefs that Washington may not be as “committed to Asia” as expected, according to Capri, visiting senior fellow at the National University of Singapore GBP rose against the USD by 0.2% as of 2:22pm on Wednesday, from $1.29 earlier in the day Aramco to purchase SABIC, the world’s fourth-biggest petrochemicals company, and to then potentially list downstream oil assets S&P 500 traded lower by 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 200 points early Wednesday, however has now declined by 72 points Germany’s economy declines as initial third-quarter growth shows a fall of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter Italy’s budget deficit to remain at 2.4% Asian overnight: A mixed session overnight saw gains in Japan counteracted by weakness across most of the other major markets. The Australian ASX 200 was the notable underperformer, falling over 1% thanks to substantial weakness across the energy sector in the wake of the crude decline. That decline was partly down to the OPEC monthly report which saw markets shift focus onto the oversupply that seems likely in 2019. Data-wise, we have seen a whole host of economic releases, with Japan falling into negative growth for Q3 (-0.3%), while Chinese releases fared somewhat better given the rise in fixed asset investment and industrial production. UK, US and Europe: The main focus of today is likely to be on Brexit concerns, given yesterday’s breakthrough in talks. May believes it was a “decisive step” in the procedure with the UK leaving the EU, and is expected to give a statement to the House of Commons on Thursday morning. The 585 paged draft deal includes a 21-month transition period, including a commitment to protect the rights of the EU nationals in the UK, as well as ensuring physical checks will not be reintroduced between the Irish border. The final agreement is far from assured a safe passage, and thus the market reaction is likely to be heavily impacted by the ability to pass through Parliament. With that in mind, expect sterling volatility, with any signals of how the votes might go likely to play a major role. Also watch out for the latest inflation data, with UK CPI expected to rise to 2.5% today. In mainland Europe, markets will be keenly following the latest eurozone Q3 GDP number, alongside the industrial production figure. Finally, the US follows on from the UK with the inflation theme, where CPI is expected to rise to a nine-month high. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK retail sales (October): sales to fall 0.4% MoM and rise 3.6% YoY from -0.8% and 3% respectively. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US Empire state mfg index (November), retail sales (October): index to fall to 20.5 from 21.1. Sales to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses 4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 9 November): delayed by a day due to Veterans Day, stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels from an increase of 5.7 million a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades 3i Group said that total return increased by 10% in the first half of the year rose 10% to £728 million, and net asset value per share rose 7.2% to 776p. Aston Martin said that adjusted earnings in Q3 rose to £54 million from £28 million a year earlier. Car sales doubled to 1776 in the period. Great Portland Estates will buy back £200 million o shares after strong demand for London real estate. Pre-tax profit to 77% to £40.4 million for the first half. Apple’s shares fall by more than 2%, declining to around $886billion from its record high of $1.13trillion House of Fraser to continue to close another four stores Flybe issued a profit warning and is now up for sale Uber figures shows a loss of around $1.07billion in its last three months to September Huawei plans to develop its voice assistant to work outside China, which could potentially cause competition between Google and Amazon Air France-KLM raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Wirecard upgraded to buy at DZ Bank Vivo Energy raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley Aggreko downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays Continental downgraded to neutral at Citi CRH downgraded to neutral at Exane IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. 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