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  1. Trading in Asia was mixed as US shares stabilized overnight. In the meanwhile, the ongoing discussions between China and the US adds uncertainty. The bottom performer among major Asian indices was the Nikkei, which fell 0.45%. Oil climbed higher amidst resuming hopes following the 1.2 million barrels per day production cut agreed by OPEC+. However, concerns that the US could much further increase its shale production and the slowing global economy could make the output cut less effective. Gold ticked higher in Asian trading as its biggest nemesis – the US dollar – lost ground. Disappointing data about the US construction sector and concerns about a possible global economy slowdown could further have the USD slump, and hence increase bullish bids on the yellow metal. The Indian Rupee slumped 1.6% overnight following the resignation of its central bank governor. The Pound kept steady after the initial slump that followed May’s delay of the vote on Brexit. The yield on US 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.85% on concerns about trade talks with China and the lack of clarity concerning the faith of the jailed Huawei CFO. Asian overnight: An 18-month low for Japanese stocks set the seal on a difficult session in Asia, but another strong rebound for Wall Street provided some hope that the selling in equities has abated for now. While the agreed March 1 deadline for further agreement on trade differences with the US looms, China over the weekend had contributed to increasing alarm in financial markets by summoning US and Canada’s ambassadors to answer about the Chinese businesswoman arrest. Stocks in China climbed following news that a timetable for trade talks was discussed. UK, US and Europe: News that the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He discussed the timetable for trade talks with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had shares in China rise. Furthermore, the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co’s CEO makes the diplomatic wrestling even more critical. While possible progress on tariff talks had Chinese benchmarks ticked higher overnight, is a positive outcome for US concretely foreseeable? Macron announced yesterday evening a series of resolutions in an attempt to end to the “yellow vest” protest that is jeopardizing its presidency. While the raft of new spending could undo part of the French government’s gains from tax increases, it could also stabilize the Eurozone politics, after more uncertainty was produced by the power switch in Germany’s CDU. With the Brexit deadline on the pipeline and concerns about a possible meddling in the “yellow vest” protest from Russia, the Old Continent is finding it hard to benefit from the Holiday Season’s higher spending. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK employment data: September expected to have seen employment drop by 64,000, while the claimant count rises by 7400 in November. Unemployment rate for October expected to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings to rise 3% for October. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 10am – German ZEW (December): economic sentiment to rise to -12 from -24. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US PPI (November): factory-gate inflation to rise 0.1% MoM, from 0.6% last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses 11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence index (December): forecast to fall to 104 from 104.3. Markets to watch: AUD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ashtead retained its full-year outlook, saying that stronger rental revenue growth in North America boosted performance. Pre-tax profit for the first half was up 25% to £610 million, while revenue was 19% higher at £2.25 billion. WPP said it would spend £300 million over the next three years as part of restructuring efforts. Organic growth in line with peers is expected to return by the end of 2021. Full-year results are expected to be in line with forecasts. Serco has won two UK contract extensions worth a combined £135 million. Aviva upgraded to top pick at RBC Lancashire upgraded to outperform at RBC Sanofi upgraded to buy at Jefferies Unicaja Banco raised to buy at Ahorro Corporacion Derwent London cut to equal-weight at Barclays Phoenix cut to outperform at RBC Superdry downgraded to hold at Berenberg Standard Life Aberdeen cut to sector perform at RB IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. Asian equities gained as investors weighed in comments from Federal Reserve officials and a possible breakthrough in US-China trade war. Shares in Hong Kong and China led the gains with the Hang Seng Index climbing 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.7%. Oil crude was up with WTI gaining 0.9% to $52.02 a barrel after a US industry report signaled shrinking gasoline surplus. Concerns of sanctions to Russia following its sea clash with Ukraine and Saudi’s vow to cut production in December are also pressuring upwards historically low oil prices. Gold fell the most in two weeks and finally found support above $1210. The move was prompted by a stronger USD, and later today Powell’s speech could trigger more swings. The pound slipped 0.1% as UK Prime Minister Theresa May reportedly allowed lawmakers to vote on a series of potential changes in her Brexit plan. More uncertainty is expected ahead of the final MPs vote on the 11th December. US treasuries edged higher as markets await today’s Fed’s Powell speech to the Economic Club of New York. Fed Vice Chairman Clarida committed yesterday to support “some further gradual adjustment” in rates. Fed watchers took the comment as a sign that the end of the current rate-hiking campaign could be close, but not immediate. Asian overnight: Markets remain unperturbed by warnings from the US government over impending talks with China, as Asian markets close out the session overwhelmingly in the green. The Australian ASX 200 remained as the only major market in the red, with a rebound in crude prices not too little to help drive the index into the green. Chinese markets were the outperformer, with the G20 summit at least providing the possibility of a breakthrough. Should we see another failed attempt to find a resolution, we would simply be back at square one. UK, US and Europe: UK Prime Minister Theresa May dropped efforts to avoid lawmakers re-writing her Brexit deal. A series of potential changes in the plans could take place, among which a call for another referendum. Moreover, the Treasury will publish today an analysis on the long-term economic impact of Brexit on the UK which could prompt more resistance from the Parliament. As already almost 100 Conservative members of Parliament have publicly committed to not supporting the Brexit deal, May’s Brexit journey looks far from nearly completed. Meanwhile, the pound edged higher amidst hopes of a Brexit deal being ratified. From the US, expectations are growing ahead of Saturday’s dinner in Buenos Aires between Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Larry Kudlow, the US president’s top economic adviser, has clarified that Trump is ready to impose more tariffs if talks with China do not progress. As we are approaching a pre-election year, pressure is building on president Trump to yield results from his ongoing trade disputes. The market maintains a positive outlook on the meeting as the dollar held gains and tech shares gathered momentum. Looking ahead, the preliminary US GDP reading for Q3 provides the first revision to the 3.5% figure released last month. With US-China trade talks due to take place at the end of the week, the US goods trade balance due out today certainly comes at an opportune moment, helping shape trade walks with China. Later on, we have US crude inventories and UK bank stress tests to contend with. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 12pm – German GfK consumer confidence (December): forecast to fall to 10.5 from 10.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1pm – US GDP (Q3, 2nd estimate): growth to drop to 3.5% QoQ from 4.2%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (October): forecast to rise 2.2% MoM from a 5.5% drop a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 23 November): stockpiles to rise by 2.5 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades On the Beach said that full-year pre-tax profit rose 24% to £26.1 million, while revenue rose 25% to £104.1 million. RPC saw first-half pre-tax profit fell 5% to £154.4 million, while revenue was up 7% to £1.89 billion. Senior expects ‘good progress’ for the full year, after trading in the first ten months of the year met expectations. Frey upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux PSI upgraded to buy at DZ Bank S Immo upgraded to buy at SRC Research AstraZeneca downgraded to hold at New Street Research Marks & Spencer cut to sector perform at RBC Nostrum Oil & Gas cut to hold at Panmure Gordo IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Crude prices gained, as Saudi Arabia leads OPEC and its allies into cutting Oil supply from December. The Saudis mentioned seasonal factors among concerns for weaker demand, as they laid ground for a wider production curb in 2019. Gold holds steady near a one month low as it keeps losing lustre as a safe haven to the benefit of USD. Spot gold was little changed at $1,209.57 per ounce at 01.21 GMT. Will the commodity benefit from a more divided White House? Yuan proxies such as AUD and NZD are experiencing downward pressure as traders hedge against interest rates hikes from PBOC. Yuan is gaining ground as a safe haven, amidst gloomy global outlook. The Euro could benefit from a rebound in German growth, as the country accounts for almost one third of the euro-zone economy. Expectations are growing as, according to the VDA German carmaker association, 440,000 new cars were produced in October, compared to 310,00 in August. The downward pressure on US Treasuries could weaken, after 10-year yields started coming down from almost a 7-year high, as oil moved higher overnight. Asian equities edged higher this morning overcoming the drag on Friday of Large-cap US stocks (the Nasdaq lost more than 1.5%). Australian shares added 0.13 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock index gained 0.11 percent. Asian overnight: A somewhat uninspiring session saw Chinese markets provide the only substantial move, with the Shenzhen composite rising over 1%. The FTSE China A50 rebounded amidst positive expectations for industrial data to be released on Wednesday and Alibaba’s record sales volume yesterday. Meanwhile, Japanese, Hong Kong, and Australian markets largely posted very moderate gains to kick off the new week. On the data front, Japanese PPI eased from 3% to 2.9%. UK, US and Europe: May braces for a tough week to keep her Brexit plan alive. Opposition from both sides mounts and one area of contention is a clause that would allow the UK to exit the Customs Union only via a bilateral agreement. According to International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, a second referendum is not even in question. The Cabinet was expected to meet today, but yesterday there was no sign of progress. Meanwhile, major US banks are planning to shift about €250 billion of balance-sheet assets to Frankfurt because of Brexit. Italian treasuries have the highest yield among investment-grade bonds in the euro area and piqued the interest of M&G Investments and BlueBay AM LLP. Yield on Italian sovereign dept keeps plummeting before tomorrow, which is the deadline to submit a revised budget plan to the EU, as the markets downplay the risk of Italian populist politics. However, the Italian coalition government has already dismissed Brussels' ultimatum and warns that the plan remains unchanged. Looking ahead, Veterans' Day in the US means we will see lower volumes throughout the day. Given that there are no major events to note throughout the European session, we are likely to see a continuation of the running themes of the weekend, with crude and sterling grabbing market attention. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 6:00 - JPY Machine Tool Orders. Previous at 2.9% vs actual at -1.1%. Higher tracks trends in machine tool orders placed by major manufacturers means higher capital spending. Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades AstraZeneca said that its diabetes drug had ‘significantly’ reduced the risk of hospitalisation for heart failure. Playtech has reaffirmed its full-year guidance, although trading in Asia had hit performance. Overall growth outside Asia remained resilient. Diageo said that it would launch an additional share buyback programme after an agreement to sell nineteen brands to Sazerac for a total of $550 million. Burberry upgraded to neutral at Intermonte Logista upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse DSV upgraded to buy at Berenberg Danske Bank upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Hikma downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt Panalpina downgraded to hold at Berenberg Richemont downgraded to outperform at Raymond James UniCredit downgraded to neutral at Intermonte IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. Hi, The black dot with 20 inside means that the price is delayed 20 minutes. You could also activate live data from Settings on MyIG! It is also true that when the stock is in closing only, in a physical shares account, you would be able to reduce your position but not add up to it.
  5. Hi, Thank you for the reporting the issue. As other Community members noticed, the issue was resolved on Monday. It may be worth noting that, in the future, if you experience platform issues, please give us a call! The community is a more passive Help & Support area for clients to talk among themselves.
  6. The observation is correct and stop distances can move during high market volatility, however in regards to the CHF the larger stop distance for times outside these periods are due to government intervention (some people read this as manipulation) and relatively recent events regarding the peg against the EUR. Due to an increased interventionist monetary policy there is a higher chance of volatility and the risks associated with that. We therefore need to push out our stop distances. Let me know if you need any further detail about the above.
  7. IG-Andi

    Trailing stops

    Hi everyone, On the Web Platform, once you have trailing stops activated, you can set them exactly where you set normal stop. The difference is that close to "guaranteed stop" you would be able to see a small arrow from which you can open a drop-down menu and select your favorite type of stop.
  8. Hi Susie, Thank you for your query and thanks everyone for the contribution. When you place an order, you are able to set a price level for which you want to buy or sell. Could this be your case?
  9. May seems to have secured concessions from Brussels to let her keep all of Britain in a customs union and avoid a hard border. How close is a Brexit deal? Sterling briefly jumped to a two-week high on Monday on growing hopes of a smooth Brexit. The U.S. dollar struggled on Friday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last off 0.1 percent at 96.459. Against the safe haven yen, the dollar held at 113.25 . The euro was flat at $1.1389 . Asian equities followed suit, with HK’s Hang Seng falling as much as 2.4%. President Xi Jinpings’s vow to cut import tariffs at the expo in Shanghai carried little market reaction. US sanctions on Iranian oil will be effective again from today. However, US crude oil inventories rise for the fifth consecutive week, the longest since March 2017. Amidst excessive supply concern, WTI crude lost 0.8%. Yesterday in Qatar, younger royals were elevated to executives. The country faces regional isolationism since the embargo in 2017 by Saudi Arabia and its allies. Analysts agree the changes could accelerate economy growth of the state. Qatar is the world’s top Liquified Natural Gas exporter. 10-day historical volatility for Bitcoin is lower than the S&P500. Swings in October, one of the worsts for bulls, sent the Nasdaq into correction territory and the S&P500 on the edge of one. Asian overnight: Stock markets are in decline at the start of the week, with the Asia Pacific session showing widespread selling. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell as much as 2.4% while Japan's Topix fell 1.1 percent at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. President Xi Jinpings’s vow to cut import tariffs at the expo in Shanghai carried little market reaction as there was no decisive hint. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kuroda hinted that Japan is no longer in a situation where it’s best to be "decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation”. The central bank still needs to stick persistently with its stimulus program to achieve its 2% inflation target. Japanese treasuries to be monitored. UK, US and Europe: The prolonged silence over Brexit was broken as May was reported to have secured concessions to keep the UK in a customs union. May is due to discuss the latest proposals with her cabinet tomorrow. According to Mizuho Bank Ltd. The GBP could jump past $1.35 within two days if a divorce is agreed. The GBP is down more than 10% from pre-Brexit vote and, according to a Bloomberg survey, it could regain about half of that in case a deal is reached. Pound swings could be looming. The conundrum of the Italian budget plan keeps widening as Lega Nord and 5 Stelle fought over the weekend on amendments after the initial rejection from the EU. The government has until the 14 November to submit a revised plan (with deficit less than 2% of GDP, against the 2,4% of the current one). Today, EU finance minister will gather in Brussels to discuss the situation. Italian sovereign debt modestly slid on the weekend but held flat overnight. US Treasury will auction a record $83bn in notes and bonds this week as budget gap grows and fiscal stimulus unwinds. Markets are expected to be skittish ahead of U.S. congressional midterm elections on Tuesday. Opinion polls show a strong chance that the Democratic Party could win control of the House of Representatives after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, with President Donald Trump's Republican Party likely to hold the Senate. Trades hedging the risk of higher rates over the coming days piled up. Meanwhile, yield on US 10-year Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 3.207%. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 09:30 - UK Markit services PMI: consensus at 53.3, previous at 53.9 13.25- Bank of Canada Governor Poloz holds a speech in London 15:00 - USD ISM Non-Manufacturing services Composite: consensus at 59.1, previous at 61.6 Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Micro Focus said that annual revenue guidance will be at the higher end of the expected range, with an improved revenue trajectory in the second half. Hiscox reported that gross written premiums increased in double digits in the nine months to 30 September. Despite a strong Q3, growth is expected to moderate towards year-end. Barclays upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe ING upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Paddy Power raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley SKF upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux BPER Banca downgraded to sell at Goldman Hoist Finance downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley Intesa downgraded to sell at Goldman Sachs IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. Hurricane Michael is already regarded as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit US. The worst hit areas of Florida’s northwest coast saw significant damage to residential property, along with President Trump authorizing FEMA to step in and coordinate disaster efforts. Even though the worst might have already passed, the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have sizable effect for the next seven weeks. The effect on the markets can be notable around this time, with the following sectors likely to see an increase in volatility. ...any disturbance on the US oil export levels could positively impact petroleum-derived commodities. The energy sector is likely to be heavily impacted. Since oil in the US is mostly extracted in northern regions and refined in the areas around the Gulf of Mexico, oil’s supply chain could be disrupted. If refineries were to be impacted, the demand for crude could crumble, putting downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, any disturbance on the US oil export levels could positively impact petroleum-derived commodities’ prices as seen most notably with Hurricane Harvey in 2017 which saw Nymex RBOB contracts rise over 9% in three days. When we look at the local oil climate, it should probably be noted that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported rises in both crude oil and gasoline inventories. When it comes to soft commodities, cotton could be a major concern until the end of November. Carolina and Georgia produce around 20% of US cotton and only about 10% has been harvested. To add to the global landscape, India’s production of cotton could fall as much as 45% due to weather and income issues. Whilst the cotton markets are roughly flat from where they were at the start of the year, could bullish news and a lack of supply cause upside mobility for this market? Orange juice could experience even more volatility due to supply concerns in Florida. West in Mississippi delta, sugar fell 20% off mostly due to higher Real, but has been recovering since the 28th of September. Moreover, the sustainability of the bullish trend could begin to arise. You can find all this under the soft commodity section on the IG trading platform. On the stock markets, the Insurance and Reinsurance sectors are to be closely watched. As of mid-September, $36.6 billion in catastrophe bonds (CAT Bonds) were outstanding, $11.9 billion of which was issued this year, according to data collected by Artemis. The bonds, issued by insurance companies to mitigate their exposure to natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes, pay a coupon to investors as long as a trigger event does not occur. Nevertheless, analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said that while hurricane Michael could have only modestly pressured the share prices of exposed Property & Casualty insurers and reinsurers, which was seen on Wednesday as equity indices tracking the sector and Bermudian reinsurance firm share prices fell, it won’t be a particularly major event for the market. Furthermore, wind and storm surge related insurance industry loss from hurricane Michael is estimated to be between $2 billion and $4.5 billion by Corelogic. Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) funds, who provide financial instruments whose values are driven by insurance loss events, are also to be monitored. Such funds compete with traditional Insurance businesses and are therefore impacted by the very same external events. Last year, Atlanta-based Cox Automotive Inc. estimated that up to 500,000 vehicles were damaged by Hurricane Harvey and the floodwater that devastated Houston. Similar figures this year could prop up car sales in the region by relevant amounts.
  11. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde commented that U.S. stock valuations have been “extremely high”, possibly implying a correction. On a similar line, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted that the stock sell-off wasn’t “surprising”, while insisting that U.S. fundamentals remain strong. Lagarde also advised to be ready for more market volatility During IMF U.S.-China trade tension was cited as a major reason for cutting its outlook for global growth. Intense Brexit talks this weekend ended in a deadlock. Even after an unscheduled meeting between Raab and Barnier, the UK and the EU could miss this week’s key landmark as there will be no further attempt to resolve the issue before EU leaders gather in Brussels on Wednesday. Report suggests that there is a number of key Tory officials ready to quit May’s cabinet, should UK not leave the customs union. Equities in Asia did not follow up on the Friday traction. The drop which was led by China comes after warnings about global fragility at the annual IMF gathering. Chinese stocks were hovering around 4 years low, whilst indices in Japan, Australia and HK were also down. Gold is pushing higher. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF had a positive weekly chart with “reversion to the mean” at $117.66. The equities uncertainty, the ongoing trade war, the upcoming mid-term elections in the US and the potential for an additional rate hike in December, all account for the gains in the safe haven. WTI Crude rose 1.1% to $72.15 a barrel. Despite long-term worries for demand, geopolitical tensions over disappearance of Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply The Pound weakened overnight against the dollar. Brexit gridlock could be the main reason Amidst trade tensions and turbulent IMF talks, the CNY/USD rose 0.2%. However, China unlikely to let the currency weaken past the psychological level of 7 per dollar. In fact, the People’s Bank of China announced last week a cut to the RRR for the fourth time this year. The Long Dollar ETF is positive with the ETF above its "reversion to the mean" at $24.96 Asian overnight: Another day, another sea of red across Asia Pacific markets, with Japanese indices leading the declines. A strong end to the week for US markets did little to encourage traders overnight, with gains in the Yen dragging the Nikkei and Topix. During IMF talks, BOJ governor Kuroda comments that when the Bank of Japan is ready to signal the start of an exit from monetary stimulus, the shift will be seen in interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation in the country remains at 1%. China central bank governor Yi Gang sees plenty of room for adjustment in interest rates and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). The big question remains: is a major correction on its way, or that this is just a great “buy the dip” opportunity? UK, US and Europe: Last week saw the hardest shakeout since February’s correction with around $2.6 trillion of investor wealth loss and no clear firing gun, apart from the trade tensions between US and China. The MSCI World Index continues to nosedive below its 200-day moving average. The big question remains: is a major correction on its way, or that this is just a great “buy the dip” opportunity? Political uncertainty glooms in Europe. Merkel’s Bavarian allies lost absolute majority in a regional election. Meanwhile the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party reached 11% and won its first seats in the state parliament. In Scandinavia, Sweden enters its second month of political turbulence following September’s inconclusive election. The four-party opposition Alliance abandoned his attempt to form a government, while yesterday the “Nordic nation and moderate Party” leader Ulf Kristersson informed that he saw no viable way to form a working coalition with his center-right opposition colleagues and the Social Democrats. Italy is expected to generate even more uncertainty ahead of the presentation of the budget plan in parliament next Saturday. During IMF talks in Bali, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau commented that the ECB’s policy path “does not depend on the fiscal uncertainties that can appear in member states”. US treasuries rose amid cautious tone at the IMF talks. On the other hand, as the US mid-term elections on November 6 draw nearer, the steeping in the yield curve may provoke more fury from Mr. Trump about interest rates. US Treasury Bonds and Notes can be found on the IG trading platform. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm - Retail Sales ex Autos: forecasts for 0.3%, in line with the previous release 1.30pm - Retail Sales control group (total industry sales): consensus at 0.4%, up from previous release of 0.1% 10.45pm - New Zealand CPI : forecasts at 0.7%, up from previous release of 0.4% Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Superdry said that warm weather in the summer and autumn, plus greater foreign exchange costs, would hurt full-year performance. Overall mid-single digit global revenue growth is expected. ConvaTec has cut full-year earnings guidance, due to a cut in requirements from its biggest customer. Adjusted earnings are expected to be 23-45% over the year, compared to a previous 24-25% guidance. Greencore will sell its US business to Hearthside Food for £817 million in cash. GN upgraded to buy at HSBC Lundin Petroleum upgraded to neutral at Citi Siemens Healthineers upgraded to buy at HSBC Thule upgraded to hold at SEB Equities RWE downgraded to add at AlphaValue IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. MSCI All-Country Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, hit the lowest level since August '16 overnight Crude hovers above $74 a barrel on concerns Hurricane Michael in the US may affect supply USD down as it does not keep pace with SGD. Trump comments that FED is moving rates too quickly Iron Ore Benchmark breaks back into $70s amid speculation over further stimulus from Chinese policymakers Trump accepted the resignation of Nikki Haley as US ambassador to UN. Commented his daughter Ivanka could do a "fine job" Bill Ackman’s fund builds $900m stake in Starbucks. The American coffee company rose 5.6% on Tuesday after disclosure that Ackman's Pershing Square's had bought $15.2 million Indian stocks rebound from 6-month low. The second quarter earnings season is slated to kick off today with Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. reporting Longer-dated Japanese government bond prices firmed on Wednesday, tracking gains in U.S. Treasuries with U.S. yields coming off multi-year highs Asian overnight: Asian markets are finally showing some signs of life, with Chinese stocks the only ones to be down on an otherwise bullish session. US Treasuries were relatively stable overnight, despite global growth concerns driven by a reduced GDP forecast from the IMF due to trade concerns. Data-wise, Japanese machine orders fell less than expected (6.8% from 11%). China has turned half a trillion dollars of central bank money into bricks and mortar as part of effort to support slowing economy. The government said it is speeding up construction of 15 million new homes to replace substandard houses nationwide. The program has so far pumped $463 billion into the economy. Looking ahead, China is about to sell $3 billion dollar bonds on Thursday. It is the second time in a decade, the first time being last year. Looking ahead, UK data is at the forefront of investors mindsets, with the monthly GDP reading released alongside manufacturing production UK, US and Europe: US threatens to block UK from 46-nations procurement agreement. It could deny UK companies from accessing a $2 trillion dollar marketplace after Brexit. The UK will apply to rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement, a trade accord that governs global appropriation rules, after Brexit in March. U.S. negotiators have told their British counterparts that their application is outdated and needs to be revised, said the officials, who asked not to be identified because talks are ongoing. Negotiators in Brussels will be discussing a solution over Irish border over the next few days with just a week before a crucial summit of EU leaders. Hurricane Michael intensified from category 3 storm to category 4 early Wednesday. As it turns towards Florida, it could shutdown nearly 40% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output as early as Monday. When it comes to soft commodities, orange juice and orange juice futures could be affected. You can find this under the soft commodity section on the IG trading platform. Evidence that Super Micro Computer Inc. was hacked has been found in US. It shows that China continues to sabotage critical technology components for US. Such finding adds up to the securities issues over US hardware companies. Looking ahead, UK data is at the forefront of investors mindsets, with the monthly GDP reading released alongside manufacturing production, industrial production, and trade balance. Also keep an eye out for the NIESR GDP estimate later in the day. In the US, watch out for the PPI inflation reading alongside the currency report from the Treasury. South Africa: Global equity markets are trading flat to marginally higher this morning suggestive of a similar start for the Jse Allshare Index. Late afternoon news yesterday was that the South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, had stepped down from his post and that former Reserve Bank Governor, Tito Mboweni had been appointed in the position. The rand reacted favourable to the news with significant strength being realised against a broad basket of currencies, both emerging and developed. BHP Billiton is up 0.25% in Australia suggestive of a slightly positive start for local resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9:30am: (UK) Aug. Manufacturing Production YoY, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1% 9:30am: (UK) Aug. Trade Balance, est. GBP1,200 deficit, prior GBP111 deficit 13:30: US PPI. 2.8% expected year on year Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Standard Chartered Seeking Resolution With U.S. Over Iran. This is relating to transactions not compliant with sanctions: WSJ Trading in Patisserie Valerie suspended after the cafe chain discovered "significant, potentially fraudulent, accounting irregularities" PageGroup said that annual profit is likely to be marginally ahead of expectations, after a good performance in offshore markets offset weaker UK growth. Gross profit for Q3 was up 17.2%, or 19.7% on a constant currency basis Gresham Technologies remains confident of delivering its full-year outlook, after strong sales growth in the nine months through September HSBC finalises $765 million settlement over securities sales Dixons Carphone raised to buy at HSBC Ocado upgraded to equal-weight at Barclays Rightmove upgraded to buy at Liberum Soco upgraded to outperform at RBC Hella downgraded to hold at Berenberg Hunting downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays IPCO SS cut to underweight at Barclays Leroy downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreu IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. The U.S. and Canada agreed to a trade deal that would preserve a three-way bloc with Mexico, setting the stage for their leaders to sign the accord by the end of November. The new deal will be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Mexican peso and Canadian dollar gains as uncertainty is lifted and greater stability takes hold of the Americas. The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expected budget deficit target that could put Rome on a collision course with Brussels. In the UK this week the Conservative party is holding its annual conference. Brexit talks are bound to be high on the agenda and could cause some volatility as the narrative continues to play out. Hammond could also add flavour to this years budget which could hint at trading opportunities to come. Tuesday sees a speech by Jay Powel. After the Feds interest rate rise last week speculators will be looking at any hints they have on monetary policy. Asian overnight: A somewhat mixed session overnight has seen the Japanese markets push into the green, while the Australian ASX 200 provided the opposite move in the absence of Chinese and Hong Kong markets due to national holidays. Weekend data from China did little to raise confidence for Australian stocks, with the manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both declining. The non-manufacturing PMI survey did rise, yet Australian concerns are certainly focused on the manufacturing sector as a lead to how their exports markets will fare going forward. Finally, the Japanese Yen declined on the news of weaker figures for the Tankan manufacturing index, non-manufacturing index, and manufacturing PMI. ...we have a host of economic PMI releases from Europe, although for the most part they are final readings. UK, US and Europe: The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expected budget deficit target that could put Rome on a collision course with Brussels. Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is certain to face questions about the nation’s 2019 spending plan even though it’s not on Monday’s Eurogroup agenda in Luxembourg. Theresa May faces the battle of her political life to retain control of the governing Conservative Party as top Tory politicians undermined her leadership. After arch rival Boris Johnson went for the jugular, Chancellor Philip Hammond swept in to defend her in an increasingly chaotic political scene. Looking ahead, we have a host of economic PMI releases from Europe, although for the most part they are final readings. That being said, the UK manufacturing PMI is one of the few figures that represents the first release for the month, with markets looking for a marginal decline. That PMI theme carries into the US session, with manufacturing figures from both Canada and the US. Given the breakthrough in NAFTA negotiations, expect to see continued volatility for the Canadian dollar and Mexican Peso. South Africa: The Jse Allshare Index is expected to open firmer amidst today's positive global equity market sentiment. Commodity prices are trading marginally lower and the rand slightly weaker as the dollar finds some short term strength. BHP Billiton is down 0.1% in Australia, suggestive of a flat to slightly lower start for local diversified resource counters. Today's economic calendar is light in terms of scheduled data releases, with UK and US manufacturing data perhaps the most relevant catalysts to look out for today. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK mfg PMI (September): survey forecast to rise to 53.8 from 52.8. Market to watch: GBP crosses 3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (September): forecast to fall to 60.5 from 61.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Tesla likely to dominate headlines today as the SEC ruling that Elon Musk should stand down as chairman (but maintain his CEO position). Nielsen Interim CEO of Danske as Borgenfor relieved following money laundering scandal. Assura continued to grow during the first half of the year to 30 September 2018, completing the acquisition of 39 medical centres and two developments at a combined cost of £108.2 million. HNA Group Co. shrinks debt by $8.3 Billion. More needed to regain trust of investors. TMX Group earnings release above expectations. Barclays upgraded to buy at Berenberg Castings upgraded to buy at Peel Hunt Thomas Cook upgraded to hold at Berenberg Kaufman & Broad raised to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux AB InBev downgraded to hold at Jefferies EasyJet downgraded to underperform at Bernstein Sampo downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan Telecom Italia cut to underweight at Barclays IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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