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  1. The Dow will open lower today than its open price for the year following weak jobs data and the resulting sell-off of FAANG companies. US Non-farm payrolls grew by 155,000 on Friday, missing estimates of 198,000 whilst unemployment is near record lows at 3.7% Chinese markets had a poor start to the week following missed trade estimates for November. The Hang Seng has fallen 1.41%, the Shanghai composite by 0.84% and the Shenzhen composite by 1.15% The European Court of Justice has ruled this morning that the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 and the withdrawal from the EU. The FTSE lost over 4% last week. This was likely due to reduced confidence that Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal agreement will be agreed on by MP's when they vote on it tomorrow following last week's 5 day debate. A range of UK data on today's economic calendar including monthly GDP growth and the October trade balance could see the FTSE and GBP crosses have an eventful start to the week Oil is up almost 4% following an announcement from OPEC that they will cut production by 800,000 barrels per day. Gold rose 2.16% last week as we continue to see risk aversion increase with investors. New York Cocoa saw its largest single day jump on Friday, growing 4.36% coming amidst supply worries from the Ivory Coast, the top producer of the commodity. London Cocoa saw a similar jump of 3.57% Asia overnight: Japan saw a 3Q contraction of GDP by 2.5%, 0.5% more than the expected 2% reduction. However this move did not move the Nikkei significantly compared to the losses it sustained last week which almost hit 6%. The ASX is now at 2 year lows following US-China tensions as the poor trade data for China. Weaker demand from China could see commodities exports fall for Australia. UK, US and Europe: Whilst tensions between the US and China have risen once again, the usual suspect of a trade war is not to blame this time. Following last week’s arrest on Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou by Canadian Authorities with the speculated intention of extradition to the U.S, China has demanded her immediate release. They have also stated that the Canadians will face consequences for their “unreasonable” actions. Ms Meng is accused of circumventing US sanctions on Iran via a subsidiary company which had been misrepresented as a separate company to Huawei. The tech giant which recently surpassed Apple to be the second largest smartphone maker in the world (behind Samsung) has seen its fair share of limelight recently. They were banned by both Australia and New Zealand over cyber-security concerns and Japan is expected to follow suit. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Facebook has increased their stock buyback program to $9 Billion Nissan's Carlos Ghosn is set to be charged for under-reporting his salary Softbank has set the price of their telecom IPO at 1500 yen (£10.47). The shares will begin trading on the 19th of December Interserve shares are down 60% as they are in talks with lenders about converting debt to equity. Cronos shares were up over 20% on Friday as they announced they are in talks with Altria, the tobacco giant. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. UK government found in contempt of parliament for the first time due to not releasing the full legal advice regarding Brexit. The government has now agreed that it will be published which may cause more instability in the markets Markets have retreated following their rally attributed to agreements made between the US and China at the G20. The fall comes amidst increasing sentiment of an economic slowdown as well as reduced faith in trade war negotiations following officials of the Trump administration admitting it was too early to say if a longer-term deal could be reached. The Dow was down over 2.5% whereas the Hang Seng was down over 1.5%. Meanwhile, the EU volatility index was up over 7% over the course of yesterday. Australian GDP missed growth QoQ by 0.3% and YoY by 0.5%. The growth targets were 0.6% and 3.3% respectively. Oil prices have fallen again as the Chinese government has warned of a falling demand due to a slowing down of the economy whilst the US oil inventories have continued to grow according to a report by the American petroleum institute. Official US oil inventories will be released today at 15:30 GMT. Gold has fallen from its recent 5 week high and the dollar has strengthened. The dollar basket gained 0.4% yesterday. This market sell off comes as bond yields have dropped, showing a flight from equities into the less risky assets. The current US yield curve and what it means for investors is discussed here. The contempt vote was another blow to British Prime Minister Theresa May as she battles to gain support for her withdrawal agreement. Asian overnight: Asian markets fell sharply after a dismal day for US equities, with 3%+ losses for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Recession fears are rising as investors watch the yield curve warily, while growth fears hit oil prices too, reversing some of the gains from earlier in the week. UK, US and Europe: US markets are closed today for the funeral of President George H W Bush, which should result in lower volumes across the board. The pound remains in focus, after the prime minister suffered a series of reverses in Parliament, which may however mean that a no-deal Brexit is much less likely, and a possible ‘Norway option’ becomes a possibility if the current deal fails to pass Parliament. The contempt vote was another blow to British Prime Minister Theresa May as she battles to gain support for her withdrawal agreement. The vote was won by 311 votes to 293 and saw a substantial drop it the pound which briefly hit its lowest level since April 2017. The vote also saw 26 conservative MP’s vote for their leader to release the full details of the legal advice. The vote was also notably backed by the DUP who have a parliamentary pact with the conservatives, however they have been outspoken with their displeasure with how the withdrawal agreement approaches the Irish boarder issue. Jeremy Corbyn has demanded that the advice is published before the parliamentary vote on the withdrawal agreement next week, so MP’s can make an informed decision. Andrea Leadsom has only indicated that she plans to “respond” today as MP’s meet again as part of the 5-day debate. Speaker of the House John Bercow has stated it would be unimaginable that the advice is not provided before the vote. Continued division between and within the parties suggests the PM may need to increase her efforts if she wishes to get this agreement passed when the MP’s make their decision on it on Tuesday the 11th. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK services PMI (November): activity expected to increase, with the index rising to 54.1 from 52.2. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses 1.15pm – US ADP employment report (November): 189K jobs expected to have been created, from 227K jobs a month ago. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change in policy expected. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (November): expected to drop to 59.5 from 59.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 30 November):stockpiles to rise by 2 million barrels, from a 3 million increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Stagecoach suffered a pre-tax loss of £22.6 million, compared to a profit of £96.7 million a year earlier, with a writedown in the value of the US business the main culprit. Adjusted pre-tax profit was down 10% to £87 million. Wood Group has won a $43 million contract to construct 80 miles of steel pipeline in west Texas. Patisserie Valerie have appointed an interim finance chief following issues with their accounting reported in October The Civil Aviation Authority has announced it is taking legal action against RyanAir. The airline are claiming that they do not have to compensate customers for delays during strikes from their staff as they believe this constitutes "extraordinary circumstances". The EU mandate that passengers must be compensated for delays does not apply if the situation is deemed to be extraordinary. Takeda have gained shareholder approval for their £46 billion takeover of Shire, the largest corporate takeover Japan has ever had Alpine shareholders have approved their merger with Alps Electric Aker Solutions upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Bayer upgraded to buy at DZ Bank HeidelbergCement upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan Salzgitter upgraded to neutral at Macquarie Electrolux cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley Ted Baker downgraded to hold at HSBC Glaxo downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays Hargreaves Lansdown cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Theresa May to visit Brussels today to meet with EU leaders. The visit will see May attend ceremonies marking 100 years since the end of the First World War and she will also have a working lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron which is expected to cover the Brexit deal following news of a draft withdrawal agreement this week. US Fed holds rates as expected with a further hike anticipated in December which saw USD gains and Treasury yields hit highest level since 2008 Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to reassure companies of the Chinese economy following slowing economic data and trade war speculation as he offered tax breaks and financing help. Chinese PPI fell 0.3%, in line with expectations whilst CPI remained at 2.5% YoY Oil continues to trade low following increased OPEC exports, increased US output and exemptions granted to the Iran sanctions. The US now has a higher crude oil output that both Russia and Saudi Arabia Gold is trading lower following USD gains after the Fed announcement Disney have announced their Netflix competitor will be called Disney+ and will launch by the end of 2019 Volkswagen have announced they will sell an electric car to rival Tesla at a price of $23,000 Bombadier shares fall 20% following an announcement they will cut 5000 jobs and sell two businesses for $900 million Asian overnight: A hawkish Fed has sent Asian markets lower, with the Hang Seng leading the losses after falling more than 2%. The US central bank held off for now, yet it is clear that we will see further rates hike in the near future, raising the cost of borrowing from the US. Energy stocks fared particularly bad, as the recent weakness in crude prices took its toll on markets such as the ASX 200 and Hang Seng. Data-wise, all eyes were on the Chinese inflation data, with PPI falling from 3.6% to 3.3%, while CPI remained flat. DUP leader Arlene Foster is said to be unhappy with the proposed solution regarding the Irish border... UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK comes into focus amid the release of Q3 GDP, manufacturing production, industrial production, goods trade balance, and the NIESR GDP estimate. Meanwhile, the US session brings PPI inflation, alongside the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Theresa May will visit Brussels today following news that the UK cabinet was invited to review a draft withdrawal deal. The EU had been said to be considering a summit without the inclusion of Theresa May so they could assess the current situation and allow their leaders to put questions forth to their chief negotiator Michel Barnier. DUP leader Arlene Foster is said to be unhappy with the proposed solution regarding the Irish border that is currently speculated to be in the withdrawal agreement. Foster stated a letter she received from May implied a contingency Northern Ireland customs border that May said she would not allow to come into force but the leader of the DUP has said its inclusion raises alarm bells. This visit comes just one day after the UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab admitted he wasn’t aware of how important the Dover-Calais crossing was to trade for the UK. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK GDP (September), trade balance (September): GDP to rise 0.5% over the previous three months, from a 0.7% rise in August, and trade deficit to narrow to £1.1 billion. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US PPI (October): forecast to be 0.3% MoM from 0.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (November, preliminary): index to fall to 95 from 98.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades The US is suing UBS in relation to defrauding investors in the approach to the 2008 financial crisis Informa said that revenue rose by almost a third in the first ten months of the year, and it remains on track to meet full-year expectations. Morgan Advanced Materials said that sales had risen by 7.2% over the ten months to 31 October, and that the outlook for the full year was unchanged. Grainger has acquired a development in north London for £41 million. S4 Capital has confirmed it is in discussion with Mightyhive about an acquisition but also talked down speculation saying it is often in discussion with several marketing services about a possible acquisition KPMG have announced they will no longer offer consultancy work for their audit clients in an attempt to reduce conflicts of interest AO World will acquire Mobile Phones Direct for £32.5 million Hochschild Mining upgraded to outperform at RBC Inchcape upgraded to buy at HSBC Tele2 upgraded to buy at DNB Markets Valneva upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux BillerudKorsnas downgraded to neutral at Goldman Smurfit Kappa downgraded to sell at Goldman Centrale del Latte d’Italia cut to hold at UBI Banca Legrand downgraded to hold at SocGen IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. USD reaches its highest level this year as it breaches the 97.00 level it tested earlier this year, a level it hasn't seen since June 2017 Asian markets have shown signs of recovery heading towards the end of October which saw significant losses globally. The Shanghai Composite rose just over 1% despite the manufacturing growth rate missing forecasts The Dow Jones also saw strong gains yesterday following a consumer confidence report which beat expectations, reaching its highest level since 2000. As a result Wall Street is no longer in the negative since the beginning of the year. US oil inventories to be announced today may see the price fall further. The price is already down over 13% from its peak this year which was at the beginning of this month. Reports suggest the outlook may be bearish as reports suggest stockpiles may be higher than expected and BP have reported their refinery output has increased at the fastest rate for 15 years. Gold is at its lowest price in over 2 weeks but October is set to be the first month of gains following 6 straight months of losses, the longest streak since 1997. Facebook beat earnings expectations yesterday with an EPS of $1.76 compared to $1.47 expected, providing relief for the company that has had negative press over the past year . Samsung saw a 21% increase in operating profit for Q3 YoY, in line with guidance. Reports of a new Boeing aircraft crash in Indonesia have sparked inquiries into what could cause problems with such a new aircraft. Airlines and their suppliers are likely to be under scrutiny in the coming weeks. Eurozone YoY CPI is set to be released at 10am and Canadian GDP will be announced at 12:30pm, both could provide volatility with their indices and currency prices. Asian overnight: An impressive session overnight saw Asian markets follow their US counterparts higher, despite a raft of somewhat disappointing data points from Japan and China. Weaker industrial production, housing starts, and consumer confidence in Japan saw USDJPY push higher over the session. We also saw the BoJ keep rates unchanged, while trimming their inflation forecasts. Meanwhile, the Yuan fell further amid a disappointing set of PMI surveys, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing expansion slowing down. USDJPY pushes higher as the BoJ keeps rates unchanged and trims inflation forecasts. The Australian ASX 200 also saw gains yesterday, led by strong performance in the energy sector specifically. The finance sector also also saw gains of almost 1%. This comes in spite of a 5% reduction in profit from one of the banks (ANZ) that is heavily weighted in this sector which still saw share price increases of 1.05%. Nickel is down almost 30% from its highest point this year and has returned to the price last seen in December 2017 following the lower than expected Chinese manufacturing data. As with many markets, the commodity will have had sell-side pressure over concerns with the US-China trade war which will have intensified recently with Trump considering further tariffs. The metal has seen increasing demand as it is used in the batteries of electric vehicles which have seen an increase in production. However Tsingshan Holding Group have also announced their intention to implement a more effective supply chain for nickel which will further reduce its price. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session sees markets focus on the latest eurozone inflation data, with both core and headline CPI expected to rise for October. US ADP non-farm payrolls should shift us into a jobs mindset ahead of Friday’s big release, while Canadian GDP and US crude inventories round off a busy afternoon. Today marks the 10-year anniversary of Bitcoin, the world’s first and most notorious cryptocurrency. As it reaches its milestone for its first decade, the price is set to fall below last years for the first time this year which will only be the second time since its inception that the coin has been worth less on its birthday. It may not be all doom and gloom for the currency though as further financial integration may occur soon as the SEC are reviewing their decision to allow a Bitcoin based ETF. You can read more on the potential effect of this decision on the current price of bitcoin here. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 10am – eurozone CPI (October, flash)< unemployment rate (September): CPI to rise 2.1% YoY and core CPI to rise 1.2% YoY from 0.9%. Unemployment rate to hold at 8.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 12.15pm – US ADP employment report (October): 195K jobs expected to have been created, from 230K a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.45pm – US Chicago PMI (October): index to rise to 60.5 from 60.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 26 October): stockpiles to rise by 2.5 million barrels, from a 6.3 million barrel increase a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Next reported a 2% rise in sales in Q2, and it left guidance unchanged for full-price sales growth of 3% over the full year. Smurfit Kappa reported a 27% rise in EBITDA for the first nine months of the year, while revenue was up 7%. The firm has also acquired a plant and paper mill in Belgrade for €133 million. Randgold Resources will pay a record full-year dividend of $2.69 per share, up from the original $2. Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline and Tata, the owners of Jaguar Land Rover are set to release earnings Mike Ashley has bought Evans Cycles which was in administration. The owner of Sports Direct also recently bought House of Fraser which was also in administration. Santander Q3 profits have increased 36%, making almost €2bn in the 3 months up to September. Engie upgraded to hold at HSBC Inchcape raised to overweight at Barclays Intertek upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux Spire Healthcare upgraded to hold at Berenberg BNP Paribas downgraded to hold at DZ Bank Fiat Chrysler downgraded to neutral at Mediobanca SpA Pets at Home downgraded to sell at Goldman Intu downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. Cryptocurrencies have been going through a period of relative stability, which is almost unheard of for the asset class that gained notoriety for its volatile price movements. ...the support and resistance lines are expected to congregate by early November but a breakout can occur at any time... The stock market selloff that punished the tech sector in the first half of October coincided with Bitcoin losing 7.5% of its value in a single day. Does this correlation in market movements suggest that as Bitcoin and other cryptos have become more mainstream, and adoption by centralised financial institutions has risen, the price is now at the mercy of the same institutions and financial markets it was seeking to circumvent? Or could the selloff be more indicative of general investor sentiment at that time when confidence in the markets was low? One interpretation of the current market movement suggests that the correlation between the crypto class to the major indices are largely unrelated. This interpretation may be supported by the fact that as the more traditional markets have continued to fall through October (with tech having its worst month in a decade) bitcoin’s price action has remained stable, whilst simultaneously seeing a 17-month low volatility rate, even with yesterday’s 2% fall. Technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin shows that the coin was hitting its resistance line and the markets were already likely to turn bearish. The below chart illustrates a falling wedge formation with an almost horizontal support of $6000 that has developed since the February market sell off which shows bitcoins price consolidate and volatility reduce. The wedge shows that the support and resistance lines are expected to congregate by early November but it’s important to remember that a breakout can occur at any time as the price boundaries tighten as investors may take any breach of these lines as an indication of the future price of Bitcoin over the medium to long term. The fake-out of Monday the 10th suggests that investors are poised for any news that can drive price action. Coinciding with this November timeline is a deadline set by the SEC to allow the public to submit opinions on whether to allow Bitcoin ETF’s in the United States. The deadline, which has been moved from October 26th to November 5th follows the SEC’s original decision to reject the ETF’s citing a lack of compliance to prevent market manipulation. ...impending large technical and fundamental focal points implies we may be on the brink of a spike in volatility... This decision by the securities authority could fundamentally define how investors perceive the currency as a further integration into financial markets is either halted again or finally given the green light. The ability for this type of announcement to move prices should not be underestimated as bitcoin hit its all-time high just six days after the first Bitcoin futures contract was announced by the CBOE. Granted this happened during an upwards trending bull market, but it undeniably added to that movement. The announcement to review the initial decision just one day after rejecting the first application, as well as a published statement of official dissent by commissioner Pierce of the SEC, could indicate a potential swing in judgement from the SEC. However, this may not represent a full shift of opinion by the commission as it only takes one commissioner to open a review. Following the deadline, an official decision will not come from the SEC until they have had a chance to review the public submissions, but investors will be listening intently for any early indication of how the decision might go. More recently, reports that some of the concerns that the SEC have over introducing the ETF have been mitigated by the organisations producing the ETF’s have saw speculators expectations heighten for a prospect that at one point seemed rather unlikely. The concerns of the SEC include market liquidity, volatility, pricing and market manipulation. However, proponents have argued that the SEC’s demand for a ‘significant’ futures market allowed them to be non-committal as they have not defined what they classify as significant. The imminence of impending large technical and fundamental focal points implies we may be on the brink of a spike in volatility but what price can investors reasonably expect the currency to move to if the market were to shift? The previous decision by the SEC preceded a $400 dip in the price of the coin in one day and fell back down almost $2000 in the following two weeks to the previously mentioned support level of $6000. Speculators may be hoping a reversal in the decision could see Bitcoin return to $8000 or higher. It’s hard to predict how low the price could go as these prices haven’t been seen since before the all-time high but proponents of the technology wishing for continued stability will be hoping that the lack of a bitcoin ETF is already priced into the market.
  6. Chinese stock have rallied with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining more than 4% as officials attempt to support the market as GDP figures last week fell short of the 6.6% growth target by 0.1% The rest of the APAC region followed suit with all major indices apart from Australia's ASX 200 making gains. Dominic Raab has stated there may be some flexibility on the Irish border issue. The Brexit Secretary made the comment in an interview which may allow negotiations continue for a soft Brexit. Uncertainty over oil remains as the investigation over the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi continues. Turkey have stated they will announce their findings tomorrow which could cause further volatility with oil if the announcements result in further international condemnation for Saudi Arabia. Italian bond yields have lowered as ratings agency Moody's has kept their outlook 'Stable' RyanAir profits fall 7% as their Chief Exec blames air traffic control disruptions. Asian overnight: This rally is likely to calm investor fears that China was heading towards an economic disaster with stock-backed loans as China’s Shanghai index was down 30% this year. Chinese markets have drawn attention recently with missed GDP estimates and the ever-present trade war uncertainty. Confidence is also weak in the yuan as it looms ever closer to the $7 level. Major concerns are beginning to emerge that this fall in Chinese share prices is causing a further sell off due to stock-backed loans. Many Chinese corporations have these loans secured on their shares which they must liquidate as part of the agreement to ensure they can fulfill their obligations. Following the major market sell off seen earlier this month which mainly hit tech, an important sector for China, it’s likely that further market drops could cause more firms to have to sell their shares which would cause their price to drop further. This recent rally is likely to placate investors temporarily but as 11% of the country’s market capitalisation is being held as collateral for loans investors will still fear that another market downturn could cause a landslide for Chinese share prices. ...11% of the country’s market capitalisation is being held as collateral... UK, US and Europe: The comment from Secretary Raab comes just a day after London saw a protest of approximately 700,000 people who were voicing their concerns over the final deal that the UK will ultimately make with the EU. Markets are likely to react positively to any news that furthers the negotiations between the UK and Brussels as it potentially avoids the possibility of a hard Brexit. The west has remained sceptical as Saudia Arabia have changed their story regarding the reported death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. As a growing number of leaders from some of the worlds largest corporations are pulling out of the investment conference 'Davos in the Desert', Saudia Arabia appear to be in damage control mode. The investment conference is an important part of the Saudi Prince Bin Salman's vision for the future of Saudi Arabia in which they intend to reduce their economic dependence on oil. The conference was set to garner investment support to develop other areas of the economy, something the Gulf state also intends to finance through the IPO of the state owned oil corporation Saudi Aramco. South Africa: The dollar has softened to assist gains in commodity prices which has an effect on the South African bourse. The rand is firmer this morning as well. Tencent Holdings is trading 2.91% higher in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 0.2% in Australia, suggestive of a flat to marginally higher start for local resource counters. Today's economic calendar is light with no high impact data scheduled for today. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (September): expected to fall to 0.15 from 0.18. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades NMC Health has upgraded its annual revenue and earnings guidance. A stronger second half means that revenue is expected to rise 24%, from a previous 22% guidance, and EBITDA will now be $480 million instead of $465 million. Ryanair has suffered a 9% fall in pre-tax profit for the first half, while average fares were down 3%. Ryanair will close or downsize three bases and shrink its winter capacity, and it does not rule out further capacity cuts. Fiat Chrysler are set to announce the sale of their component maker to rival Calsonic Kansei for $7.1 billion Debenhams has announced it will continue with its store closures as well as unveiling a £100m savings plan Bankia upgraded to neutral at BPI Hunting upgraded to outperform at Macquarie Ophir Energy upgraded to buy at Jefferies Tullow upgraded to buy at Jefferies Cairn Energy cut to underperform at Jefferies Intu downgraded to hold at Berenberg Novartis downgraded to hold at Baader Helvea Publicis downgraded to hold at Liberum IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. US sees largest market fall in 8 months with the Dow Jones losing over 800 points in the main session. Asian markets followed suit with both Tokyo and Hong Kong down over 3%. The Taiwanese index was down 6% with the MSCI Asia Pacific average coming in at an average loss of 3.5% for the region The tech sector saw the biggest losses yesterday with FANG companies losing between 4-9% Oil saw its biggest 2 day loss since July as supply concerns continue. The US are set to announce their inventory levels later today Hurricane Michael has continued to batter the South-East coast of the country and is reportedly the largest hurricane to hit the area since 1992 but has now been downgraded to a tropical storm The Cryptocurrency market lost over $12 billion of market value after a period of relatively low volatility, something the asset class isn’t particularly known for. Bitcoin now stands 68% lower that it’s all time high. This comes amidst reports that theft of the digital currency has hit 1 billion in the last 9 months. Going into Thursday, volatility may continue with US CPI numbers being released. Bulls will be hoping to beat forecasts of 2.4% to help recover yesterday’s movements. Gold is likely move if there is a divergence from forecasts. The VIX pushed past 20 after yesterdays volatility. The dollar declined against all G-10 peers following the sell-off. Asian overnight: Chinese espionage tensions continue as the US accuses a Chinese operative of spying on US aerospace companies. Meanwhile, Trump has also lashed out at South Korea for not paying for the deployment of a missile defense system on the peninsula. The effects of the trade war are creating some interesting trade options, especially in the EM arena where price action is dictated by USD and CNH price action, industrial manufacturing and economic growth, and export deficits throughout the East. Notably the 25% tariffs imposed on the US has caused the price of Soyabeans (used for oils and meal) to skyrocket in Brazil, pushing suppliers to offload significant quantities of reserves pushing stockpiles dangerously low. Going forwards we could see buy side pressure from Brazil taking up the surplus now seen in the US. You can trade USDCNH, Soyabeans, EM currencies such as the Brazilian real, EM ETF’s and diversified trackers (linked to manufacturing, industrial production or soft commodities) all through IG. The fall in US Treasuries is particularly concerning to investors as bonds are seen as a safe haven during turbulent equity market movements. UK, US and Europe: The markets began their large decline around 12pm BST yesterday showing investors bearish attitude as the Dow remains near its all time high. Mortgage application rates falling for the second week in a row following the Feds interest rate hike gave the bears the ammunition then needed to begin the sell off. However mortgage providers fared fairly well compared to other sectors in the US. Tech took the brunt of the hit with some shares losing up to 10% , possibly suggesting that the trade war is likely to hit tech. Going into Thursday, the futures market implies the bearish attitude is likely to continue. Donald Trump has also blamed the fed interest rate for yesterday’s sharp fall. When asked if it could have been due to trade war tensions he stated there was no reason to raise interest rates and that the fed were acting ‘loco’. US Treasuries also saw a fall yesterday as investors began to sell causing yields to rise which can further influence consumer interest rates. This is particularly concerning to investors as bonds are seen as a safe haven during turbulent equity market movements. South Africa: Gold has struggled to find safe haven demand in the current equity market selloff and trades marginally lower this morning. Brent crude is under pressure despite hurricane Michael threatening the Gulf of Mexico and shutting down a lot of production within the area. Tencent Holdings is down 7% in Asia suggestive of substantial weakness to follow for major holding company Naspers (which has a 20% weighting in the Jse Top40 Index). BHP Billiton is down 3.8% in Australia suggesting a soft start for local resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US CPI (September): prices forecast to grow 2.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.7% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI to be 2.3% YoY from 2.2% and 0.2% from 0.1% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses 4pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 5 October): stockpiles to fall to 5.08 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades WH Smith saw an overall rise of 2% in revenue for the year, to £1.26 billion, although the like-for-like figure was flat. Group profit from trading operations was up 3% to £163 million. The group has announced a restructuring of its high street division, closing some initiatives and shutting around six stores. Johnson Press is putting itself up for sale, following a strategic review of the business. Hargreaves Lansdown reported a 3% in assets for Q1, to £94.1 billion. 29,000 net new clients were added during the period. Jupiter reported a drop in assets under management to £47.7 billion for Q3, from £48.2 billion in the previous quarter. The fixed income division saw the bulk of the outflows. Tesla are looking to appoint a new chairman following controversy with Elon Musk and the SEC. Natixis confirms it is examining deal with French payment processing company Ingenico TechnipFMC Upgraded to Buy at SocGen Norsk Hydro Upgraded to Buy at Arctic Securities ElringKlinger Upgraded to Hold at DZ Bank Ferrari Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies Capgemini Downgraded to Neutral at Oddo BHF IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index pulled back last night with gambling shares having a bad time after falling revenues in Macau's casino region. US-Sino tensions rise as a US ship enters Chinese territory. Stay on top of currency markets as trade war tensions rise with #IGForexChat. The financial and healthcare sectors pushed the ASX lower whilst China remained closed for another public holiday. Bank of Australia holds cash rate at 1.5%. Japan’s Nikkei was the lone star in the Asian overnight session with a positive reading. USD/JPY climbs to 11 month high as speculators increase their short position on the yen. Euro looks to rebound following the Italian budget movement. Analysts suggest it may return to its previous trend, albeit a bearish one. Continued speculation for the conservative conference today with Theresa May expected to announce some concessions in her Brexit deal. Boris Johnson to speak later today. Yesterday saw a volatility spike in GBP/USD which we could see again today on the right type of news. Aston Martin has cut its maximum share price for its IPO from £22.50 down to £20 flat. The valuation toward the higher end of this downgrade should see the car manufacturer still slip into the FTSE 100 at £5bn, with the lowest constituent currently £4.7 in the existing index. Niche demand for high end luxury manufacturing by fund managers was the culprit. Expectations are still there for an IPO this week. Asian overnight: Japanese markets remained the one area of strength yet again overnight, as the ASX 200 and Hang Seng traded in the red once more. China remains on holiday and will be so for the rest of the week. The big overnight data point came in the form of the RBA rate decision, with the bank retaining rates at 1.5% as expected. The bank continues to see issues in the form of low household income growth, risks to consumption, and inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, pointing towards continued low rates for some time yet. LNG could be an interesting market to follow over winter... As public sentiment on pollution changes in China many are speculating on a repeat of last years movements in the liquefied natural gas market going into the colder months. Last year LNG imports were nearly 50% higher than the previous year. The key uncertainties for the market will be weather conditions (the colder the better for bullish traders), and whether or not the Chinese government has managed to maintain and hold onto its inventories and reserves (in which case the lower the better). LNG could be an interesting market to follow over winter as public sentiment on pollution hasn’t changed much from 12 months previous, and strong demand in Europe continues to buoy the price. You can blame that on an increase in carbon emission credit cost (boosting demand for cleaner fuels) and a colder start to the year. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK construction PMI provides the centre point of European trade, with markets likely to continue looking towards any statements or rumours around Brexit for further GBP volatility. Keep an eye out for appearances from Fed member Quarles and Powell in the afternoon. South Africa: Equity markets are under pressure once again this morning, led by declines in European Futures. Markets are drawing concern from Italy's budget proposal, which the EU have said could invoke a Greek styled financial crisis. US Futures are trading mixed. In turn, we expect the Jse AllShare index to open up marginally lower this morning. Metal prices are trading slightly firmer this morning while oil prices continue to post significant gains in the wake of looming Iran sanctions and OPEC's suggested capacity constraints. Tencent Holdings is down 2.2% in Asia, suggestive of a weaker start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.25% higher in Australia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for local diversified resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK construction PMI (September): expected to rise to 55 from 52.9. Market to watch: GBP crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ferguson reported pre-tax profit for the year rose 16.6% to $1.19 billion, while revenue was up 7.6% to $20.75 billion. The dividend was raised by 21% to 189.3 cents per share. Ryanair said that volume rose 11% in September, though strike action caused the cancellation of 400 flights in the month. Revolution Bars said that pre-tax losses were £3.6 million, from a profit of £5.2 million a year earlier. Datatec has released a trading statement for 1H19 guiding that headline earnings per share is expected to be between 0.5 and 1 US cents (1H18 Reported: loss per share of 5.8 US cents). Group Five Ltd FY18 results showed a loss per share of 1334c which compares with a loss per share of 829c in the previous year. Credit Agricole raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley Metso upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan Atlas Mara downgraded to hold at Renaissance Capital Danske Bank cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley Royal Mail downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan Learning Technologies Group downgraded to add at Peel Hunt IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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