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Stewart

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Everything posted by Stewart

  1. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    That's a fair point. Have you done any work on margin requirements versus percentage market moves for Major Indices? It would be right to look at some of the Boost 3*Index shorts , Puts on Indices and Outright Shorts . I use all three but when I have some time I was going to look into what was most cost effective regarding margin requirements to ensure biggest potential gain for the margin balance.
  2. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    Mind the Gap...as they say in the UK..
  3. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    The ramp up we saw into the end of last week seems to be reversing here. We should test 24,000 Dow and S&P 2,587 as first tests but I would look for much deeper tests over the next few weeks. I am still thinking retracement test of the gap down to 26th December levels.
  4. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elleYour level is equivalent to Dow at 25,500 . In an ideal scenario a great level to get short but I don't think we will get anywhere near that level over the next four weeks.
  5. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @TrendFollower . I have been watching the S&P 500, Dow and FTSE with interest playing it from the long side but I actually closed my positions on Friday and started opening small shorts that I will build on Monday and Tuesday. The sentiment was very negative going into the start of the year after that December 26th meltdown and it has taken this twenty day rally to force people out of their short FANG positions and short Indices. Bank earnings have been mostly good and we shrugged off Netflix nos. The Brexit noise and politics in Europe have led to some bounce in U.S Futures but I believe this is coming close to the short term top. From here we could easily test close to that 26th December low if not a little further. Markets are all about timing and your short was a good one but perhaps you got a tad greedy with the profit. GLA.
  6. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    There is an article that just popped up on zero hedge with Wells Fargo saying that pension funds need to buy $60bn of Equities whilst switching out of bonds to help rebalance their books towards year end. This explains some of the huge end of day buying we have been seeing. Let's see what happens again in a few hours because liquidity isn't great currently.
  7. Stewart

    US Indices Short - the big one!

    @MercuryThanks for the response. Looking at your charts this suggests either one touch at 24200 level or two touches depending on the news before the next move down. It seems pension funds have been buying off the lows and Algo's covering which explains the weight of the buying. As you write, 20% was a large selloff through December and people got a bit too bearish there on the flat yield curve idea so a decent bounce is expected. I guess the upside surprise may well be the best Central Bank in the World (China's) starts stimulating growth again after recent weak numbers which creates a bigger move higher and dampens down World growth fears. This could create a more bullish scenario for growth , commodities, steeper UST yield curves and a bullish recovery for stocks. If they are slow to react we could get this deeper selloff into the 19000 area and then recover for another Trump style rally to new highs. It's going to be a volatile year either way.
  8. Stewart

    US Indices Short - the big one!

    Mercury . You have had a great call early on this one so hope you covered on the way down testing that 21600 support level. As you pointed out in an earlier post , markets hardly ever go down in a straight line without some retracement and Portfolio managers had larger cash holdings on their books which they often don't want to show in their year end statements so may be putting some of that to work along with the Algo action . It feels to me like we can grind back up through 24000 and maybe some more in a short squeeze over year end before getting better entry points to play the larger move testing 19000 into the first quarter. What do your charts suggest given the recent price action now? Thanks for your posts.
  9. Stewart

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    I think your trade was a decent idea but on 26th we tested real support and bounced higher off it. Since then Algo's have taken it higher for two days now. We tried to come off a little yesterday but the weight of end of day buying was large. Personally I think we can bounce higher for 5-10days into the New Year which will then give you a better entry point. The FANG stocks are helping to drive the short covering and everyone got a bit spooked about that flat bond yield curve which in the past has forecast a recession. You can now see that curve steepening up 2/10's.There may well be a bigger dip coming in January/February however but it might get painful for you to hold a short until we spike higher.
  10. Stewart

    Indices

    When traders walk in this morning they can see a truce on the Trade issue and oil spiking higher, yet Indices have only moved 2%. Cash balances are high so this looks likely to test previous highs into year end now IMO. It doesn't have to go up in a straight line but valuations are not stretched and the year end affect is bolstered by this double news.
  11. Stewart

    Indices

    Caseynotes. I just came across this Forum and looked at your resistance posts earlier. I was pretty long The Dow and SPX and read your potential resistance at 25510. Just to say thanks for the work as i dumped the position this evening as we spiked on that test. It looks like you called that very well.
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