So I think maybe I wasn't so clear in my original post, but simply using the US markets as to whether or not the current trend (ie bull/bear) will continue. I haven't found that the Asia markets often shift the US markets away from an overall trend yet unless there is a huge change in Asia, natural disaster etc.
I have been taking a rather methodical approach to trying to recognize trends and potential indicators (actually it was Dalio`s principles which prompted me to start). I have been logging each trade with every bit of information relating to it and keeping my bets to the absolute minimum (50p per point) with take and stops which I have found to give me enough leeway for random swings against the trend which can potentially take you out of your bet prematurely.
The way I see it is that all my failed bets are useful data in showing me what mistakes to avoid.
I watched the markets and studied the trends and curves and still on a demo account tried out several different times/amounts/stop&take/ etc before I settled on a framework for my bets.
Since I started last week I am 400 up all told (based on a 1000 deposit) with a max of two bets placed a day. I write down lessons from each trade which adds to my overall framework.
I feel people tend to take this so much from a "you have to have a maths brain to be a successful gambler" perspective which I feel is a little shortsighted. Being someone who studied politics and international Relations it has been fascinating to see how geopolitics has an impact on the financial markets and can better allow me to hedge my bets successfully.
Trumps twitter is a brilliant tool also XD.
I am not naive enough to believe that this system will always work as the current bear market wont necessarily hold into the new year. Yet I am building a framework for when the market shifts and am being adaptable for the moment when my system needs to change.
Yet the two major things I have learned is:
- Always stick to your system
- Don't get greedy.
If i had followed the above more rigidly I would have been more like 600 up, but hey ho, we learn from our mistakes and this will be a learning process for at least another three months before I even think about putting real money into it.