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RichTheNewbie

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About RichTheNewbie

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  1. RichTheNewbie

    Gold v Oil

    It's a big bad mess of outside meddling in markets and ironically not meddling in markets. Ie QE and no OPEC. Oil is in a bizarre state where trading is unconnected to reality because of the oversupply and therefore there's no logical bottom and is a high-stakes game between traders going short and long on the slightest bit of news. Look at the reaction to a hint of ECB QE....shouldn't have been the reason for oil to spike 8%. The systemic crisis is shale, which is now there and recoverable, and the question will be what supply that leads to at any given oil price, once things settle down and the weakest producers have gone bust. It should still be a large amount of supply that could be restarted the minute prices start to rise. There will be longer term effects of all the cuts in exploration but that won't take effect for many years. Gold however is even more bizarre with hundreds of times more paper gold than the physical stuff. That would get truly interesting if big physical holders started to insist on delivery of their gold. At the moment it's a giant ponzi scheme. So oil is more understandable/logical but in an oversupplied market it's at the whim of trading which is a giant high stakes poker game. Gold......is just plain bizarre....but with the Russians and Chinese stockpiling it like never before you'd like to think they have an end-game.....gold backed yuan anyone?
  2. Sorry, , slowest reply ever. Obviously the trading became so disconnected from reality that it nearly got to those $25 levels. Although today is proving just how baseless the markets are at the moment. There's no good reason that justifies the size of move today in crude. API numbers built etc. One hint of QE and the markets go bananas! There's some interesting articles on zerohedge regarding the US fed possibly intervening in the situation with US shalers. Markets just seem to be a product of government-level meddling with currency and market wars at the moment. Compounded by mass shorting and then covering and going long.Crazy volatility.
  3. Be lucky to get $35 not $25 imo. Under $40 I think the buying will steadily increase.
  4. GLEN is a bet on copper. If copper struggles to break it's decline then so could/should GLEN. If copper rebounds then GLEN should make you lots from here. You could follow that through and therefore say that a bet on GLEN is a bet on China (though that's slightly less direct). BHP should be safer longer term and be able to outlast almost everyone but is ultimately at the mercy of commodity prices which are anybody's guess at this moment in time for the future.
  5. Should point out I'm referring to WTI still but that doesn't matter too much
  6. Seriously doubt $20 will happen. I'm sticking to my prediction from a month ago which it's followed like clockwork so far: "No chance this is the bottom. Some chance of an Aug/Sept rally but the headwinds are terrible for oil. Using WTI as the benchmark you might hope for 45-50 but it'll go back to 40 afterwards and probably into the 30's. I don't think it'll hit the $30 predictions as too many people will start to buy long-term longs. You might get $32 optimistically, but more likely $35-$38." If you believe in TA it looks like a descending triangle formed between the start of the month and now so should be seeing a further drop before too long.
  7. Was a difficult one to call. Thought it would be worse than expected but the scale of how much was finger in the air time though. Still, an award is an award,
  8. AFPO now at 2.5p from the 0.3p tip......time for XTR to follow suit over the coming months (OK it will be tough to beat the over 700% rise but hopefully it'll still be at least a small portion of that)
  9. Lots of variables but I've had a lot of success calling this one in advance (whether by luck or judgement). Currently a tougher call, so I've got no positions on it, as my preference is it to follow my original prediction which was to get under $38 before rallying to $45-50 and then back down again, as it's followed it like clockwork so far. Therefore if it gets back down to $40 I'll start to consider longs again but scale in slowly. This last dip was always the tougher part of the prediction to happen (hence no positions). (WTI obviously)
  10. Still playing out as predicted. Got to the top end of the $45-50 bracket after getting under $38. Back down again to complete the prediction and call me mystic meg
  11. I'll have a punt at 209,000.
  12. First part playing out as expected. WTI made it under $38 and now bounced back to over $43 at one point. Let's see if the rest pans out within a month or two.
  13. No. I'm particularly concerned by the weakness in all commodities although conversely if they go much further (to varying degrees) I think the potential is huge in many of them. AFPO played a blinder since I lasted tipped it and is double/triple the price already. Market was more generous than I expected though considering the climate so well done to the brave who held even longer. XTR has continued to perform extremely well operationally but as you say commodities are getting hammered. In their case gold and copper. Gold not doing well but a very slow decline compared to copper's nightmare. This is my biggest concern with this stock which I would otherwise be piling into. Undecided for now and a bit like oil at this exact moment (daily/hourly speaking in oil's case) I'm sitting on my hands.
  14. No chance this is the bottom. Some chance of an Aug/Sept rally but the headwinds are terrible for oil. Using WTI as the benchmark you might hope for 45-50 but it'll go back to 40 afterwards and probably into the 30's. I don't think it'll hit the $30 predictions as too many people will start to buy long-term longs. You might get $32 optimistically, but more likely $35-$38. Much lower and it's too painful for too many, both medium term, and long term. If it went under $35 for very long it's the best bet ever as it kills long term exploration spending, ignoring US Shale which is more flexible, for that reason you'll get too much money trying to pile in covertly and overtly below that price (it's really $40 imo for that breakeven point but $35 is where it becomes pushing it too much). Best hope for oil is a collapse in the dollar as it's still pretty strongly correlated. This being a signal of weakness now when a dollar rally hammers oil and a dollar follow leads to a weak rally in oil.
  15. XTR - increasing profit/revenue. Big new projects already acquired and to be monetized. AFPO - deals now signed with COMESA for potash. Near term revenue now forecasted. Expect both to be significantly higher over the coming year.
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