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cheviot

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cheviot last won the day on January 18

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About cheviot

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  1. Shiller P/e s ....Stretched Sp 500 bull market actually started in 1927..
  2. FTSE 100 in a triangle. Runs out of steam along its top line...Not surprising given Brexit....Needs to clear 7730 to show true impulse.....Also depends on your view of £. Rallying £ will undermine FTSE . Enjoy.....NB I did nt mention a bear market or correction....😣
  3. This bull market started in 2009....Its 11 years old....The good thing is ...It ll all come out in the wash....
  4. Do nt follow too closely...RIP 2008 Lehman, Julius Baer , Salamon Brothers, Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank, RBS (on resus) They are nt as smart as you think.....If they were as smart as you think they would have side stepped the 2008 drop ! As for equity holdings.....No they do nt hold the equities their clients do !!!!
  5. Haha ...I graduated in 1984......Ecometrics love it.....I was always asleep in that class....Very boring lecturer.....During recessions GDP falls....Unemployment rises, stock markets fall....It just goes to show that place Ecomists end to end and they will never reach a conclusion !
  6. Why consider a bear market ? One contributor just hit the nail on the head....Fund managers have billions...invested....Yes all agree on that. Why do markets actually crash......because they are all trying to find the exit at the same time....You get price vortexes when there is no buyer...a gap ...The market becomes one way....Everybody is long,.....Like all the FANG stocks...billions of $$ tied up....They ca nt get out at once....First thing that happens .....Sell index futures against as much of your book as you can....Then start trying to sell the actual stock you own.. Then you get margined on all the long positions....Copper being a favourite margin store....it gets sold, and so on and so on......Then you go on to Business TV telling everyone the market will bounce..... The weakness of the market is that the fund managers are TOO BIG to manoeuvre ..... That is why I try and look into the distance just a little bit....
  7. Big ticket UK..She thinks its just Brexit.....Probably totally true....but these would have been big plant and machinery,,,,CAT s , Daiewo...JCB .etc...
  8. Anecdotally ....I have a friend who does big ticket leasing for industrial machines ....£250 k + All the deals (total £3mn this month) were set up to be signed this month....All cancelled by 3 different companies....😟
  9. This was nt personal I speak it as I see it..There are millions of bulls out there so not personal to you......We re all just swimming around trying to make the best of it....So ANYTHING I say is never personal...I m just an individual too,,,,..No rooms full of analysts and billions behind me....I have an economics degree and have been trading since 1986 ......So bin what i say ...I m fine with that...I expected 'feedback'....Buy low,sell high....my friend.
  10. Hello remeber me....I m your friendly hungry local BEAR .....Just thought id say Hi ........I m expecting to get a gut full of you bulls soon......Why ? Bull case waring a little thin is nt it ? Locally in US town ...lack lustre industrial production....an economy that is full of holes.....Yeah i get it....5 G ....super cycle demand for gadgets ...yeah yeah i get it....FANG profits through the roof...Yeah yeah....markets up,,,and its ALWAYS right yeah yeah I get it...... Why is it ...I just do nt buy it....???? Most of the up moves since Jan 2018 have been 3 legs.....So...What ??? Low volume, malaise, laziness, ignore the data, just walk in and buy the market ?? Yeah I get it.....Fed will always bail the market out right ?? Yeah yeah I get it.....No Bear market then....Cancelled for a decade yeah I get it.....Problem is ....Something just does nt feel right .....Is it rates at 1.76% for 10 year US , is it an Oil market that is staggering back lower, is it Copper drifting lower.....Is it analysts expectations which are beginning to look over cooked ??? (And also they want you to buy shares so they get commission!!!) I believe the market got over pessimistic in Dec 2018 and is now overly optimistic......I think we are in a 3 leg market top......We are close to finishing Wave B......The market will move RAPIDLY lower .....WHY WHY WHY ???? 2 things turn markets.....Fear and greed. F O M O has been a large part of the 2019 bull market.....never sell because the market never goes down (for long) ?? Greed to chase FANG higher and higher.......Oh dear it must be fear ....War....I hope not, drought ...we have that....Famine....not in the western world.....Fear of an air born virus ....I hope not ....Check out 1919....The devastation of that flu outbreak caused the great depression . You may think I m a nut case....Fine ...I accept that. Bully bull ,,,be careful,,,
  11. Key day reversal....is ..... nothing fancy.....But is good indicator of trend reversal....
  12. cheviot

    Apple

    I think this is part of a 4 th wave correction which might get us to $ 308 before a pull back upwards, then final 5 th wave...then down $321 maybe .....pre announcement of results next week...
  13. Key day...Is a technical reversal....New high.....with a daily close below the previous days low....For the Dow its 28782.....
  14. Feels like a nice day for a key day reversal on the Dow ....If I was a bull I d be pretty disappointed with the way the markets trading...Up yes...but no volume and no follow through...Its more than in the price....😕
  15. Its a 5 th wave triangle .....Your RSI is dropping its churning sideways.....Same as US markets.... It all come out in the wash !!
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