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cheviot last won the day on February 7

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About cheviot

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  1. Markets are like elastic bands. They stretch and stretch and stretch and then suddenly they go ping......Usually hurting your opposite finger that is still holding the band. The US stock market (as I ve been ranting on for the last 5-6 weeks ) is overbought and over cooked. Its an elastic band that is snapping. It ll probably over do the down side as it swings around trying to find its sea legs again.....
  2. Prof. Kondratieff , 1920 s economist studied the world s economy going back to the 18 th C. He found the economy the go in waves, and super cycles. Hence Kondratieff waves.....Fibonacci used a sequence we all know and love 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc and the ratios there by refined from them. The only thing I d say is that the bull market starts when the bear trend stops, so in essence your time periods need to be re-adjusted. 2009 was the bottom of the last bear market ( i.e falling prices), which means we are in year 11 of this bull phase. Fibonacci would look for year 13 i.e. 2022. I would not say TA is King. If you decide what fundamentals are important , then use TA as a road map. to enter and exit the market.
  3. cheviot


    Apple beginning to fall out of its tree (triangle). Expect pullback to $293 or $275.
  4. Weekly wheat update......When is a rally not a rally? When its a B wave correction....The rally from wheat mid week did nt 'smell' right. And now the market shas given up most of its gain to look like another test of $536....Month end can be a drama as book squaring pushes the market around. Usually month ends have been a cause for a rally....but .....My tummy tells me it could push lower first.....as Cv2019 takes a toll and a strong dollar....
  5. Its always hard to cut and face a loss. It depends on your view and how you trade and how deeply you are convinced of your position. If you are a black box trader then a long position is probably flashing red lights. If you are a position trader, who takes a view based on TA and fundamentals....then hold but re-asses your position each morning. If your conviction to be long, is wavering then take a counter hedge....i.e if you want to stay long equities then buy US bonds....That market is driving the equity market lower. Or buy volatility .....But you have to realise you are long one of the most over bought markets in the US market place, so perhaps tight /stops, and hope for a bounce.
  6. Haha just found myself nett long equities...over did the short hedges...mmm Caseynotes would be so proud of me...
  7. Hoping Scotland does nt get stuffed vs Italy .....mmmm here s hoping. would nt take bets on it though,
  8. Not getting stuffed on a Friday afternoon is one of my big personal ambitions, along with paying taxes and dying !
  9. Just follow the bond market ...Its telling its own tale. Inverted yield curves across most G 10 countries. Japan, Italy, EU block , China , S Korea, Indonesia, India all these countries writing down growth. That does nt make for bullish equity markets...
  10. Trade your view not your p/l ......
  11. The August lows of 2019 possibly,,,,The market has priced in near perfection for 2020 ....not sluggish/recessionary returns so it ll need to swing back to those values...Some of the worlds biggest economies are close to recession...Japan, Italy , S Korea , and now a slowing China. # As the Meerkats say...'Simple'.
  12. Being a 5 th Wave triangle DOW DAX may well try the top again..Volatility ...High Stress..Low.....
  13. 5 th Wave triangle my friends...choppy. rough and a turn signal, DOW and DAX. For your further viewing pleasure the 'SELL' side of the market is the left button. Some of you not old enough to remember a bear market may need to view slo mo replays of 1987 , 2000 and 2008. Braces and fish tail haircuts like Kevin Keegan were obligatory. See you at the bottom. I m taking my dogs for a walk.
  14. cheviot


    Yes i hope it will be 'temporary', but I believe the effects will be longer lasting than the 'quarter' results that brokers would like you to believe (and therefore buy shares). The world economy was under stress prior to Cv2019....Wall st has hung its hat on 2 things....Cheap money from the Fed (they will always bail you out right????) and new trade deals....Phase 1 has been lack lustre ....look at Soyabeans/wheat...agri products to see what is actually happening....The Chinese are nt there any more than they ever were..... Lets not talk about the US budget deficit.....nobody is,,...but Can Trump really conjure up another tax cut to please Wall st ??? They ll become Italy mark 2....and the crash of 1987 (when I was a young dealer) was caused by 2 things....a US trade deficit out of control and a budget deficit out of control. Last week the US announced their burgoning Federal deficit.....All fine when the suns out and wall st is sailing along.....But ....drop in demand?? rise in unemployment ??? Something will have to give...wont it? The US feel good factor is based on the equity market where it is. If Wall st fell even 5%....Consumer confidence would stop dead....