cheviot

Its always hard to cut and face a loss. It depends on your view and how you trade and how deeply you are convinced of your position. If you are a black box trader then a long position is probably flashing red lights. If you are a position trader, who takes a view based on TA and fundamentals....then hold but re-asses your position each morning. If your conviction to be long, is wavering then take a counter hedge....i.e if you want to stay long equities then buy US bonds....That market is driving the equity market lower. Or buy volatility .....But you have to realise you are long one of the most over bought markets in the US market place, so perhaps tight /stops, and hope for a bounce.

Haha just found myself nett long equities...over did the short hedges...mmm Caseynotes would be so proud of me...

All in the T Bond

Hoping Scotland does nt get stuffed vs Italy .....mmmm here s hoping. would nt take bets on it though,

Not getting stuffed on a Friday afternoon is one of my big personal ambitions, along with paying taxes and dying !

Just follow the bond market ...Its telling its own tale. Inverted yield curves across most G 10 countries. Japan, Italy, EU block , China , S Korea, Indonesia, India all these countries writing down growth. That does nt make for bullish equity markets...

Trade your view not your p/l ......

The August lows of 2019 possibly,,,,The market has priced in near perfection for 2020 ....not sluggish/recessionary returns so it ll need to swing back to those values...Some of the worlds biggest economies are close to recession...Japan, Italy , S Korea , and now a slowing China. # As the Meerkats say...'Simple'.

Being a 5 th Wave triangle DOW DAX may well try the top again..Volatility ...High Stress..Low.....

5 th Wave triangle my friends...choppy. rough and a turn signal, DOW and DAX. For your further viewing pleasure the 'SELL' side of the market is the left button. Some of you not old enough to remember a bear market may need to view slo mo replays of 1987 , 2000 and 2008. Braces and fish tail haircuts like Kevin Keegan were obligatory. See you at the bottom. I m taking my dogs for a walk.

Yes i hope it will be 'temporary', but I believe the effects will be longer lasting than the 'quarter' results that brokers would like you to believe (and therefore buy shares). The world economy was under stress prior to Cv2019....Wall st has hung its hat on 2 things....Cheap money from the Fed (they will always bail you out right????) and new trade deals....Phase 1 has been lack lustre ....look at Soyabeans/wheat...agri products to see what is actually happening....The Chinese are nt there any more than they ever were..... Lets not talk about the US budget deficit.....nobody is,,...but Can Trump really conjure up another tax cut to please Wall st ??? They ll become Italy mark 2....and the crash of 1987 (when I was a young dealer) was caused by 2 things....a US trade deficit out of control and a budget deficit out of control. Last week the US announced their burgoning Federal deficit.....All fine when the suns out and wall st is sailing along.....But ....drop in demand?? rise in unemployment ??? Something will have to give...wont it? The US feel good factor is based on the equity market where it is. If Wall st fell even 5%....Consumer confidence would stop dead....

Why are you assuming its temporary....? Cv2019 may have impact now....lower foot fall etc etc.... Medium term....World economy....? Japan,. Indonesia, Italy all struggling with recession. USA GDP indicating around 1.4 %. All depends on consumer sentiment. That changes like the wind..... Chinese banks were under intense pressure in 2019 with the slowing (6%) Chinese economy then. Phase 1 was supposed to cure all world ills....Chinese economic growth as estimated by J P Morgan is 3% at best. Us/European manufacturing is struggling ....demand for money to invest in real things like plant and machinery is weak....What does 10 year money at 1.55% say to you.....big demand for investment in the real economy (not iphones...thats just add ons) . Int rates say it all....The world economy is on its back and Cv2019 was the last straw. So short term .....No I do nt believe so,,,... Chickens will come home to roost they always do,

If you hold an option that still has time left you are still in the game..

If one balances out the other in profit Great....😄

US stocks. On 12 October the Fed announced...not QE...an expansion of the Fed s balance sheet pumping $60 billion into the short end. On that day stocks started to move higher and have nt looked back since,,,,,Last night the Fed announced that they will be reducing 'not QE' funding op's . Dow drops 100 points into the close.... The Fed is effectively funding the surge in US stocks....that is why there is a disconnect between INDexes levels and fundamentals.

well they ve got to do something all day, might as well come up with something to get the punters buying stocks....

Sheep get slaughtered ...They re all sheep baaah

Yes that will work , except you ve given away some profit on your long position....There s no such thing as a free lunch..... There are a multitude of option strategies ....collars/ costless collars strangles, straddles hedges all sorts..,,, Option traders use Black Scholes model for pricing options.,,,,

Not an IG option....or any market option. You loose it all if , you hold to the end and its out of the money. You can close it before expiry any time...It ll be worth what the market is at the time you sell it..... Say your option expires today at 12 noon. Your call is SP 500 at 3400.....The spot market is 3383 say.....You loose the lot !!! That is why your break even is : The call price i,e, 3400 + the premium you have paid ...I think around 127 or so. It expires on 18 th Sept 2020. So on the day you need the market to be 3400+127= 3527...... Thats just to break even.....

Because they loose money on dying volatility and time.....Yes you limit your downside to the premium you have paid. You do nt get stopped out they just rot. To make really good money on options you need to be prepared to buy/sell well out of the money and gear up from that. Like buy cable calls at £1.40 strike when cable is at £1.20 , pay 10 pence for them and quintuple your money, or something like that , or write options where the market is nt...but be prepared to cover those written options with cash futures ....writing options is NOT for the faint hearted..,,,,,

With sprinckles ?

Its not for me to say.....But if you keep your option you need to decide what the range of the market is,, i.e. SP top has been 3380 . So you need to sell spot against your call.....If the maket flies upwards out of the range you are covered by your call.....If the market drops you need to hold your short to protect your call option....Its hard work to make it work esp. as you have bought a call at the top end of the market range and with high volatiility, .....

I m guessing your break even must be around SP 3526 or so.... Looking at the IG options page. ....

You will have paid a lot of time premium and vol. for that so whats your break even? Also what is your delta hedging strategy ? Or are you short SP against your call already ? Use your option as a pivot. Look for sell points when RSI o/bought, then buy back when RSI drops back. To get options right you have to work hard,,,Options are like rotting fish ...If they start to drift away from you, you have time and price against you. Your worst nightmare is a market which drifts lower with volatility dying on you...and time and price... So you need to actively protect your position.... Best of luck 😅

So what are you going to do? Cross your legs ?? haha