cheviot

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles.... I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!! My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

A large number of those shorts are actually Covering net long equities....i.e they are hedges. Hence when the market drops , short indx positions get bought back...Also Put/call options delta hedges.....I have noticed when Apple rallies (in a 15 minute section) Sp 500 falls....That says to me that traders are buying Apple (for example) but selling INDX futures against it... It also depends on you time horizon. If you are jobbing it net long....fine go for it.....I try and trade with a view .....So at the moment i m jobbing it nett short BUT I scoop back in when appropriate......For example i bought back some SP short on Friday at the close....I ll look to re-instate as it pushes back up.... I guess I prefer to get it wrong because my view was wrong, rather than get caught with the wrong possy with a view I do nt actually agree with. If you are a black box trader ....no view just react to a number on the screen....Does nt do anything for me.....I look for patterns /ratios/ and a view....I suppose i take a 'position' in the market ....Get out or get in when /if things go right or wrong....

There s many ways to see a market, and trade ...re-actively or actively....Luckily it takes 2 to make a market.....

I think that the Dow on an hourly did a B top/.....Low volume , not much interest, and was clearly a 3 wave bounce off the New Year low and the drop to 3180 overnight , which was B of B. In effect we have a 4 th wave triangle which has created the 5 th wave to 3284 or so. Taking the market longer term , this is a giant b wave. The October 1 2019 drop was c of B, we have now finished C of B ....Big B that is. This will create a drop to the low 2800/2900 . Catalysts to this will be disappointment with the trade deal....Which is hocus pocus.....difficult to enforce and the Chinese know it. Trump needs a deal at any cost....So we ll retrace to where the market bounced when the Phase 1 was announced in the first place. Large cap stocks like Apple are o/bought and over priced....end of.......Every share portfolio in the US has Apple in it.....Like Ford and GM 30 years ago. Tin gods that you worship at your peril. Why be bearish???? USA : Fed ...painted itself into a corner.....Rates at 1.6% indicate a shrinking economy....despite easy credit...We have worrying signals that the USA is going nowhere fast. Therefore the stock market is over priced. It is an election year. By super Tuesday ....The stock market is going to have to start pricing in a Trump loss. (even if it does nt go that way) Government deficit. i was in the market in 1987....The US problems were 2 fold....A booming trade deficit and a crippling government deficit. BOTH are still true. Who owns US debt.....The Chinese !!! The Us has exported their debt abroad ....Savings rates in the US are weaker than in 1987 other than 401K s, which are predicated on a bouyant stock market. If the stock market drops Trump will loose and he knows it. Feel good America wo nt feel so good any more. The likelihood is that commodities will drop...Which will further exacerbate the drop in stocks. Copper is used for margin for example. I doubt Oil will stay up here and copper etc look wobbly. If the world economy was robust oil and copper etc would be considerably higher. I ve been told on this blog that shares are in a permanent bull market......Tripe ! Is all I can say to that.

Mmm Do nt get too down about it......If you hate it...do something else ?

In my experience...there are 3 types of traders.... 1. The complete geek , who uses a black box style , and operates sell /buy signals..... 2. Those who use technicals like a map, ...you feel where you want to be....and you use the the technicals to get in or out....like a road map... ...or number 3#### 3. The pure gut feeling fundamental trader.....mostly out of the commodity markets who can actually work out each season the S and D of each commodity... all 3 are equally valid.....I used to work with a metals trader....used to trading copper, he moved to FX where I got to know him.....He was an experienced trader ....but he hated |FX ...It just did nt suit him....So perhaps you have nt found either the style or the market/s that you like....??

....In his case , trying not to get killed in WW2...

RIGHT ...This is my theory ......We are counting big 4 wrong.....It did nt actually end until the spike drop to $186 on 5 th Aug . IF ...we take big wave 1 as same length as final 5....from $186 we get $311 as shown on my chart.....Wave 4 of 5 is unconventional .....

Satisfactory weekly close, I d say...Stopped dead on the Gann line and top of hr tramline......iteresting Gann fan line came in last week around $313 if taken off the start up this 5 th wave at $88.50....on a weekly......

I wonder what my Grand father would have made of this.....he was trading shares in 1930....Supposedly made a fortune on the 1927 BULL wave....Lost his shirt in 1930..Made it all back and stuck it into other things instead....

Need to take out $306.25 otherwise all it is is a correction within wave 5 ...

Mmmm cook those Apples

Bears tummies getting rumbly ....yum yum....The bears are back in town again 🐻

If you wanted a bit of action the long bond has had a 300 point whip saw day already 😂

I do buy indx sometimes.....I bought FTSE 100 at 7629 at 7 this morning as hedge against my SP short , then i dumped it at 7630 for a point profit.....You bulls would have been proud of me...

Yes....Leg higher is building just now...helped by bond market going bid......I d say a push to the o/night highs then lower......Still aiming at Dow 29084 ....But that will be wave 5 and top of Fib extension.....

I d say , we ve had a p/back to support on Sp at 3273, leg higher to highs then Woshh down we go ......Apple holding market up at $310 , once its finished , sayanara !!

I agree with your wave count almost exactly......As you ll have seen above...Its ###### ing uncomfortable being short atm.... Its also a Gann angle off wave 3 too and top of Bolly band Haha ......

I traded out of my cable posi at 6 am...went short and made a few points back...when London came in pre numbers. Looking at Yen ....Stong resistance at 109.60 If she breaks ....Which I think it will ...Might get a run to 110.60 Which is 0.618 % of the down move from Y122.... Looking at buying Wheat too...but not easy to job in and out of that....(Chicago) Limit short Apple...😬 Almost limit short Us 500 😰 Got a brand new pair of undies on lol

Love it....! What can I say.....I ll get bullish around Sp 4000

What are you watching today other than Index s ?

Dow Fib projection 29084, and coincides with 1.618 extension.....makes it a B top ......Careful out there my bullish friends,.....B tops are traps ..... Characterised by low volume and poor market internals.....Sounds familiar ??? Look at the market commentaries....Nobody s very sure why the market is here.....Talk of Trump trade deal.....Yeah fine.....In the price...End of war with Iran.....????/ Low interest rates ??? Look at the bond market ....10 yr Us much more likely to look at 2 % than 1.7%......

The Elliot Wave count for Apple.....( I think ) Grand super cycle wave 5 started at $12 !!! Now $312 .....