wjw22

From 20th January: Investegate: Recommended cash acquisition for Sirius Minerals This part caught my eye. Sirius supposedly has a large number of small private investors. On other discussion forums there are some very vocal and angry shareholders who say that they are going to vote against the acquisition in the belief that a better offer is forthcoming. I'm wondering whether more than 25% of shareholders will vote against the acquisition. If that happens then I think Sirius will go into liquidation. I'm considering another short just before the meeting.

Finablr (owner of Travelex) had some news to announce today. https://www.investegate.co.uk/finablr-plc--fin-/rns/pdmr-notification/202001241000348631A/ and https://www.investegate.co.uk/finablr-plc--fin-/rns/statement-regarding-share-price/202001241803249240A/ I went short at 128.88 after reading how badly things were going with the Sodinokibi attack on Travelex. https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/01/08/travelex_update/ https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252476624/Travelex-begins-to-restore-foreign-exchange-services-two-weeks-after-Sodinokibi-attack The Travelex website has been down for over three weeks. I think Finablr is a house of cards.

I closed my short at 4.38. Sirius will almost certainly be in administration within the next six months but it has a history of staggering on for much longer than might be expected. The share price also spikes occasionally, which I think may be local investors doubling down. Sirius' shares are now unborrowable.

Sirius are going to attempt to make their remaining cash last six months. Investegate: September 2019 Financing and development update I can't decide whether to close my short now or pay to keep it open for the inevitable collapse to 0.

The 'talk' of the government bailing out Sirius is just wishful thinking. TeesideLive: Sirius Minerals 'may offer investor incentive' to solve cashflow problems Buy bonds and receive free warrants which will convertible to shares. DOI: I'm short Sirius at 10.404.

Burford Capital is unborrowable unfortunately.

And so it came to pass... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cm1ygzmd3rqt/intu-properties

You mean this one? FT Alphaville: How a £100m student accommodation scheme went wrong (registration but not subscription required)

Unite Group are doubling down. Acquisition of Liberty Living Group Plc I still think I'm right, but I'm almost 20% under water!

Bloomberg: Ballyhooed Bitcoin Futures Contract Bows Out With a Whimper Bitcoin isn't money. The quantity of Bitcoin is not and cannot be linked to the amount of economic product. Bitcoin isn't a store of value. Some call it 'digital gold' but it is far too volatile for that. Bitcoin is both a Ponzi and a pyramid scheme. It has persisted as long as it has because of negative real interest rates.

The price kept going up so I must admit I haven't opened that short yet!

I've gone short DFS at at 254. Like many ex-Private Equity companies it has far too much debt. Without its intangible assets it would be insolvent. DFS Interim Results FY2019 (pdf).

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/04/30/sirius-minerals-share-price-falls-on-funding-deal-this-is-what-id-do-now/ It appears Sirius is going to limp on for a little longer. I'm going to close my position tomorrow if I'm still in profit.

I must admit I don't know what happens to a spread bet if a share is delisted. Edit: Here's the answer: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/market-details/what-happens-if-the-stock-i-am-trading-delists

Sirius was a commodities boom play. The numbers almost worked - high commodity prices and cheap finances and it would be a goer, but neither lasted. There have been a number of share price spikes since then though, which is why I have waited until I think there's no chance of further capital injection.

https://www.ig.com/uk/investments/news/share-dealing/2019/04/15/sirius-minerals-share-price--is-it-a-zero- Sirius is due to run out of money by the end of Q2 2019. I went short at 19.79 and was almost stopped out when the price spiked to 27! I think it'll go into administration in the next few weeks though.

Ultra Electronics has released its final results for 2018. https://www.ultra-electronics.com/investor-centre/regulatory-news-alerts/2390261 In summary: Dividend now greater than statutory EPS. Profit down and debt up. Ultra is a tech company that needs to spend on R&D to have a future and it is doing a share buyback. Share price well up on this news. I'm planning to short.

Well I might be too early (which, as per The Big Short, is the same as being wrong) but Unite's Quarterly Valuation Update includes this statement: If those universities providing those nominations agreements start to go bust then that should have a material impact on those valuations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-14/england-s-universities-are-running-short-of-cash I've opened a short spread bet on Unite, the provider of students' accommodation. I think a few of the post-1992 universities are going to go bust and won't be rescued by the government.

I spread bet against intu shortly before the most recent takeover talk collapse and I'm very happy. Shopping centres in the UK are in trouble and intu has further to fall, unless it is able to offload its mediocre assets to some local authorities.