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AndrewS

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Posts posted by AndrewS

  1. On 15/10/2021 at 10:00, cuatrotulios said:

     

    My stats for the last month. Am I doing this right? 

    Screenshot 2021-10-14 at 23.59.36.png

    Welcome to the forum.

    Which instruments were you trading and what was the average holding time of the trades.

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  2. On 02/10/2021 at 23:37, Caseynotes said:

    ok, I saw the whole Palmer interview previously and he was asserting wrong doing with regards a Pfizer backed lobbyist, hopefully more investigations to come then.

    Here is one Kafkaesque investigation which has resulted in the Lockdown King being issued by Victorian Police with two infringements valued at $200 each for breaching the state's mask mandate on both Wednesday and Thursday this week.

     

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-police-reviewing-why-premier-daniel-andrews-failed-to-wear-a-mask/6714112c-ca22-4538-8f38-57c76b8dea5f

     

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  3. 1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

    ''Good News out of Australia! Premier of NSW forced to resign after an investigation found she & others in the govt. were receiving millions from Pfizer to push draconian vax laws. How much is Biden getting?''  

    Melissa Tate @TheRightMelissa

     

    This is misinformation. This is what ICAC is investigating.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-01/nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian-resignation-icac-explained/100507412

    The allegation by Clive Palmer that Berejiklian is being directed by lobbyists tied to Pfizer is a separate matter.

     

     

  4. 1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

    is this true?

    ''They cut the internet in Victoria. Welcome to Communism.''

    Tyler Bradley @Bradley93038424

    3h

     

    What is true is that some people in Melbourne are stir crazy.

    By the time Melbourne’s lockdown ends on October 26, it will have spent 267 days in lockdown since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

     

  5. 17 hours ago, jlz said:

    ““You can’t just diagnose somebody on the basis of a snap judgment,” Whitbourne said, “but you can see narcissistic qualities.” By appearing to prioritize a phone call over the state mandate, for example, the man in Whole Foods seemed to be sending a message that “I’m above those laws, I’m special, the rules don’t apply to me and I don’t care about other people,” she said.”

     

    I reckon most of those engaged in civil disobedience simply think it is nonsense.

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  6. On 06/09/2021 at 22:32, Caseynotes said:

    Interesting blog on Dax and the upcoming September changes.

    By Chris Weston (ex IG)

     

     
    Dear Trader,
     


    The GER30 - trading the biggest shakeup to the DAX since 1988
     

     
    The German DAX (GE30 on MT4/5) has for long periods been seen as one of the great instruments for index traders, often getting the lion’s share of any of the European and global indices from retail traders. 

    However, in recent times we’ve seen the 10-day realised volatility fall to 5% and the lowest levels since May 2019, while 30-day volatility (now 7.11%) resides at the lowest reading since 2017. These measures of index volatility and movement also show that volatility in the German DAX is indeed lower than any other major equity index.

    In a world where traders are looking for movement, as well as compelling expected returns, the DAX has become relatively sanguine and equity index trader capital have flocked towards the US500, US30 and into Asia, notably the HK50. Although, volatility in these markets is considered far from lively.

    (DAX 30 daily chart)
    c1a00e8e-ca9b-4046-bfee-dae89517f8f3.png

    We can look forward, where options pricing shows implied measures of volatility not far off multi-year lows – however, one questions if this volatility is priced incorrectly and with some big event risk on the horizon, it’s not hard to envisage a world where this dynamic changes, volatility rises and the GER30 becomes one of the most traded equity indices in our universe of index products by retail traders. 

    Catalysts to make the GER30 fire up again

    The list of volatility catalysts are building, and whether the traders flow is aimed at longs, or shorts is yet to be seen, but we see a highlight symbolic election on 26 September that could get protracted and messy. The ECB is moving closer to a world where they slow the pace of asset purchases (under its PEPP program). Perhaps most importantly there are major changes in the composition of the DAX that may change both the volatility in the index, but also the attraction of the index and the underlying constituents for foreign investors. 

    The main change is that 10 new companies will be entering the index on 20 September  effectively making it the DAX 40. Along with other measures, these additions constitute the biggest change in the equity index since its inception in 1988. Incoming corporates include Airbus, Siemens Healthineers, Porsche, Puma, Zalando, Symrise, Sartorius, Hellofresh, Brenntag and Qiagen. 

    Airbus is the biggest inclusion with a market cap of E89.9b, with Siemens Healthineers the next, with a market cap of E66B. 

    By way of index composition – adding 10 new stocks reduces the concentration risk we see from having 30 stocks and by increasing the market cap by over E350b, the added diversification, in theory, lowers the variance. However, the additions challenge the way investors look at the German DAX – consider that 40% of the index constituents pay an expected dividend yield of over 3% and that can be influential on the broader index as the DAX is quoted as a total return index – that is, the price you trade reflects both the move in the price of the underlying stocks but also the dividend returns. 

    By diluting the weighing of some of the higher dividend-paying stocks and increasing the weighting towards growth we may see the index command a higher P/E multiple, and have a higher beta to other markets, with increased volatility. It may even make international investors look twice at the index and re-establish the German DAX as a front-of-mind instrument for traders once again. 

    The GER30 as a play on global growth

    We can see the index will maintain a strong weight towards international cyclical stocks with a skew towards chemicals, industrials, and technology. Over 75% of GER30 (soon the be GER40) corporates derive sales from outside of Germany, and one could argue the new additions increase the global international exposure, notably towards Europe and China. 

    After the inclusion, the GER30 index becomes even more sensitive to world traders than the S&P500, FTSE100 and other major EU bourses and holds the highest beta of equity returns to world trade – this means if we do see global growth being called into question on a more sustained basis, which I’d argue is playing out now, the DAX may well underperform and attract greater short-selling interest.

    It all suggests a livelier environment in the months ahead, and with our reduced spreads on the GER30 and industry-leading top of book liquidity, put the GER30 on the radar for increased movement – because movement results in opportunity for traders.

    GER30 Strategy sessions

    One strategy I’ve been looking at on the DAX is a short-term mean reversion model – I have optimised the settings to give the best results – and while over fitting is an issue the sample size is solid. Here, I wanted to buy DAX futures (what our GER30 is priced off) when the 2-day RSI is < 10 AND the index was above its medium-term moving average (the system suggests 81 days is best). I wanted price to rebound into the 9-day EMA as a profit target.

    fb639052-7679-4c8d-ba32-c07233f51e65.png

    The results are since 2000 I would have placed 122 trades, with a 78%-win ratio. The average win/loss are balanced, so the returns are strong and beat a buy and hold strategy before costs. The settings can be changed on shorts, where a 10-day EMA seems to work bests as a profit target.

    Past performance obviously doesn’t guarantee future results and automated strategies incorporate many assumptions.

    Great  post!

     

    Without planning it I have sort of evolved into a mean reversion specialist on the Dax.  The last 90 days on the Dax looks like this for me. Happy to reply to any questions.

    878161059_Screenshot-9_12_202110_30_03AM.thumb.png.f2638cf95dae14f9e03ba1e1ec780261.png

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  7. 3 minutes ago, BoJK said:

    Does this mean you win small and lose big? Notwithstanding your rate of return is above parity? Pardon me, I really dont know how to read this data.

     

    I guess mine is worst (lose big, rate of return negative.) 

    For example, he has 19 trades of winning 1$ and then loses $9.50, netting $9.50.

    Trade analytics is accessed through MyIG at the top left of the platform.

  8. 1 hour ago, Ozquant said:

    bahaha   IG makes more money than u do from your trades , well at least as much 

    Return rate=win rate*(profit/loss ratio +1)

     

    He is making about twice as much on his winning trades than he is losing from the losing trades.

    • Like 1
  9. On 03/03/2021 at 19:44, Ozquant said:

    Your kidding me aren't you  ScreenShot221.thumb.jpg.1b598f6732740d2292cce1af1f3f88d7.jpg, good luck 

     

    Welcome to the forum.

    I have posted several times about the way I trade and you can ask questions. My stats are highly distorted through hedging and scaling and at present are not really changing.

    1627707643_Screenshot-3_4_20217_44_55PM.thumb.jpg.595b2de15aa0338318ddb97560c66fd0.jpg

     

     Without kidding you I was looking at a 1 minute chart of the Dax at the time Caseynotes posted that chart.

    Perhaps you could post a link which explains some of the things on your chart or provide a short commentary.

  10. For me the fees are not really a consideration since I am paying a spread over and over.

    The real advantage of a decent win rate combined with a higher trade frequency is this. If I were putting on a trade a day with a win rate of 75% then on average I would have 5 losing days in the last 20, but with the higher trade frequency of 14 trades a day I have had no losing days in the last 20 days.

  11. 1 hour ago, jlz said:

    It wasn't for you, I know you are not going to read it. It was for everyone else that reads this post so they can understand the psychology behind conspiracy theories.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/insight-therapy/202004/true-false-believers-the-psychology-conspiracy-theories

    It is worth knowing what is behind the mind of someone that claims to have some kind of "special" information that no one sees. 

    This may not be on topic, but I am addressing an article that has been linked here.

     

    “Finally, like religions, conspiracy theories are, at the core, about community, manifesting our most fundamental tribal impulse—the psychological need to belong, to be part of a well-defined in-group and, by extension, to recognize and fight enemy out-groups. Like religions, conspiracy theories are group phenomena, shared by communication rituals that help adherents manage emotions by, “transforming unspecific anxieties into focused fears.” As in religion, successful (enduring) conspiracy theories produce narratives that are “framed as conflicts over sacred values.” With religion, the false God is never our God. With the conspiracy theory, the menacing shadowy group is never our group. Conspiracy theories are always about ‘the other.’ As psychologist Jan-Willem van Prooijen notes: “the root of conspiracy thinking lies in our ancient instinct to divide the social world into ‘Us’ and ‘Them’ categories.” The same psychological processes that produce God for 'us,' produce conspiracy theories about 'them.'”

     

    I have a theory that people who confidently write about “the core” of religions reveal more about themselves than religion. It is a bit like a Rorschach Test.

  12. 39 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    Dow stalled at the pivot.

    M15;

    image.thumb.png.1fe6a987a056008cd7d10b90cf80d299.png

     

    Glad to see your posts at the Indices thread.

    James16 and company at the Forex Factory had the great phrase “day trading off the daily charts”. That and trading the hourly ranges is what I have been doing recently.

     

    1773143535_IGMetaTrader4Terminal.thumb.jpg.b1ed58cbee97ab3f86db8894c7f2e948.jpg

    • Like 1
  13. This is a somewhat funny story. About a year ago I saw a review of an automated trading system which I downloaded from a Russian website which has hundreds of pirated systems. The trading system was simply optimized moving averages with a buy the dip strategy and retailed at over $1,000 when it was launched.

    Anyway the reviewer would scan a number of instruments assessing the market structure and then select those instruments where the automated system would “work”. He gave the system a four star rating because it had a 80% win rate. But the “success” of the system was entirely through the expertise of the reviewer in assessing the market structure of the instruments.

    • Like 1
  14. On 17/10/2020 at 21:34, Caseynotes said:


    Still not working. Make fake claims with no intention of providing any evidence but instead demand others provide evidence the claims are not true, also demand others provide evidence for claims they never made in the first place. Who can forget good ol' Oilfxpro who ended up demanding everyone produce a broker statement signed by an attorney.

     

    It is interesting that the OP describes a playbook that is unfolding in this thread.

    • Like 1
  15. On 17/10/2020 at 21:34, Caseynotes said:


    And poor ol' dmedin, been losing a grand a month for the last 15 months, not long to go now. But you will notice even after all that he's still not one for listening, he has a filter that just labels everything he doesn't like the sound of as just **** to be ignored. You'll also notice he's never short on giving others advice on trading, seriously.


     

     I have seen it a hundred times, but it still surprises me.

  16. 48 minutes ago, dmedin said:

     

     

     

    Yes it is a wildly random market that doesn't lend itself to TA at all.  Maybe those inscrutable Japanese have developed their own methods that the West doesn't know yet?  Certainly the Ichimoku cloud is worse than useless these days.

     

     I broadly agree with the OP that learning to trade is a process and there is no off/on switch.

     In one thread you likened chart reading to reading horoscopes, but for me it is more like reading footprints in the sand. If one footprint has sunk deeper in the sand then there is likely to have been more weight above it.

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