AndrewS
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Posts posted by AndrewS
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14 hours ago, dmedin said:
Good for you?
Are you just showing off here then? Because I haven't seen you post anything useful? Unless you think a daily chart with a two-hundred moving average is useful in some way?
The French index dropped 0.43% between posting the first and second charts and the last daily profit figure in the trade analytics was entirely from scaling out of a long and a short on the Dax.
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
I thought you were successful at trading short time frames.
For me multiple time frame analysis is more of a solid approach than hopping from one “indicator” to another. I am most profitable scaling in and out of a swing trade.
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15 hours ago, dmedin said:
Why?
I look at the French Index primarily for the Dax.
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I’ve had my eye on the 200 day MA in the French Index recently.
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3,448 may be a level of interest on the S&P500. It is the weekly R2, daily R1, top of a large bearish outside bar on the eighth of September and around a .618 retracement from the September low to the high.
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54 minutes ago, HMB said:
The high correlation between the two instruments, if it persists, should cause such a trade to have lower risk than a directional position in either of these indices, because you are hedged against factors that impact both markets similarly.
In practice I think such a trade has a higher risk because your exposure is twice as much by going long one index and short the other at the same time. Also there is additional risk because managing the two trades together is much more difficult than managing one trade. Since the two indices are so highly correlated I think it is lower risk to go long the Dax when the Nikkei is coming off support or to sell the Nikkei when the Dax is coming off resistance. The temporary out performance of one index relative to the other is much less of a story in comparison to the strong correlation.
This is the current correlations of the Dax to other indices for the past twenty periods..
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I would not go long the Dax and short the Nikkei because the two are so highly correlated that it is likely to lead to mixed results.
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I don’t back test, I simply eyeball things for consistency and I am a fan of forward testing with the minimum amount. I see evidence that over the past 4 weeks that some attention has been on the weekly pivots on the S&P500. Someone may say that is hindsight, but I am going to give more weight to a pretty picture and not try to put lipstick on a pig. At any rate the past two days I have been trying to trade a range on the Dow on the long side only.
I am mostly interested in the distance between the pivots and look at price action near them. Often I jump the gun, but I tend to scale in and out in accordance with the confidence I have in something and so getting caught out with the first scale in is not really a big deal.
How one exits is as important as how one enters and for me that is largely a matter of trade management backed by some chart reading skills. I know that chart reading can be a hard path for some and takes time, so I am not advocating it but simply stating that it is what I do.
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23 minutes ago, HMB said:
thanks, understood - was just wondering what made you enter it in spite of against your playbook - there must have been a valid reason, as in the end it worked out well
Just the general weakness in the US and European Indices and the view that they were unlikely to rise much further in the short term. But I did not have a specific set-up for the Nikkei which was showing strength at the time. I was also trying to trial trading longer time frames which I am not very good at. It is 1.45 AM Sydney time and it would be nice to change the hours I trade, but I doubt that I can.
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1 hour ago, HMB said:
sorry for being block-headed, are you saying that it was wrong to short too far away from the resistance, because closing at the point were you would have considered your trade idea as invalidated would have come with a too large loss? sounds like good advice..
why had you opened the trade anyway?
Well although it is one scaled into trade, for me it is two trades. A bad entry not following the playbook where the risk/return (distance) and probability would have been better and a good trade where I held onto it when the prospects (distance) were better.
So on a hourly time frame opening the trade was a mistake, but the trade management at a key level was better.
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A post about trade management. I did not follow my playbook with respect to the hourly charts and at this point on the charts I was sucking the air between my teeth sitting on a loss short the Nikkei. But the longer time frame aspect of the trade idea was not invalidated. The resistance at around 23400 had not been breached and the Dow was still below the 50 Day MA. I was prepared to start scaling out at a loss if that resistance was breached but a series of lower highs emerged on the hourly charts. As Mr Dante says try to open a trade as close to the point where you know your wrong as you can, which I failed to do.
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“Thus he calculates – somewhat frighteningly – that we will have 50,000 new infections a day by mid-October and 200 deaths a day a couple of weeks later.
I think Covid 19 is about twice as infectious as influenza. But the interesting thing is that he estimates the IFR (infection fatality rate) at the low end of 0.4%.
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On 17/09/2020 at 15:26, jlz said:
Just in case it could improve anything, this is a message that I get from IG on my dashboard.
I personally think that shorter time frames are bound to failure. I can' prove it, I am just talking from my own experience. It is difficult to let your trades run over a few days because of the DFB fee but in the long run it pays out.
FWIW here is a video of someone who could trade 250 times a day. But with the preparation and focus required, I think it is the exception which proves the rule.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK58oT5GTGE
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8 hours ago, dmedin said:
I have no respect for you guys, because you are sitting on money-printing schemes (AndrewS with his 1500 wins out of 1700 and JLZ with his instant money-making machine that doesn't even require looking at charts) and you aren't sitting in the Bahamas yet, selling expensive training courses.
WTF are you deadbeats doing with your lives?
At least you could use that unlimited money printing to ameliorate world poverty and suffering
I don’t think I am destined for the Bahamas.
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10 hours ago, HMB said:
i
will keep trying the short-term price action trades, but maybe better to use the risk capital for fewer trades with wider stops when opportunities seem clearer... not sure, (yet)
I would not try to give advice to someone with an average holding time of 1 minute because I think anyone attempting that should not be in need of advice. I doubt I could be profitable with such a short holding time.
I am profitable with an average holding time of 15 minutes but have found that it is very onerous and not optimal. At present my average holding time is about 1 hour scaling into and out of a swing trade. Any changes to money management need to be forward tested because you may not be able to implement the change in practice.
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On 14/09/2020 at 18:27, dmedin said:
You make money when the market trends, by following the f*king trend. The problem is that the market does not trend most of the time.
Well I can only write from limited personal experience and I don’t really do this at all, not that I am advocating people fight trends. What I do in practice is identify a favoured index to go short and a favoured index to go long. Then I trade conservatively in such a way that I tend to come out ahead whether it is a range or a trend trying to capture the safe bit scaling in and out.
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44 minutes ago, jlz said:
Oh my words, I just realised that your post got in the middle of my heat with the forum troll.
I didn't realise that it was someone else because your icon is green as well, so I didn't pay attention to the name. I do apologise. The troll gave me so much already that I feel entitled to call him all sort of things, so you just got in the middle
I should pay more attention before I send anything. The challenge was always to defend myself so I was never intending to force people to share their accounts. Thank you for sending that screenshot, I hope you are doing that well with your next trades.
No need to apologise. Unfortunately the challenge to defend oneself has happened in the past.
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32 minutes ago, jlz said:
show the full year boy, don't select a nice time when you were lucky.
Fair enough, you beat me.
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18 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.
Caseynotes has been here how long? And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.
I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.
If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine. But why do you do it? Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?
Well, the OP states that there are different types of traders, and I do think a person has to find what works for them in practice. For me the “Dow & Dax” thread Caseynotes started was a bit of a gold mine.
The last 30 days. There can be consistency from discretionary trading with charts.
Finally the challenge was “Would you share yours? Then we can insult each other as much as we want.”, but I noticed that you skipped a step before launching into insult again…
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18 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
Think I posted this strategy for testing somewhere else but forgot where, I came across the accompanying pdf but found I can't post that so here's the video again.
Dip buying on pullback failure with entry on breakout past recent high, simple and quite sound, at least worth a play on demo. Maybe even trial on higher time frames with MAs adjusted accordingly.
The video is on the “Trade Planning and Testing” thread where it was commented on by THT.
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2 hours ago, HMB said:
"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation
Some people do have consistency, but they are better prepared than you and dmedin.
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54 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Are you taking advice from people who are making money from trading?
Where's the evidence that they are making money from trading their own money?
Don’t you review your trades?
3 hours ago, AndrewS said:Hello, this sort of thing has happened to many of us. My suggestion is that you read this thread from the opening post onwards and review the matter. For what it is worth this is what my trading rules look like.
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Hello, this sort of thing has happened to many of us. My suggestion is that you read this thread from the opening post onwards and review the matter. For what it is worth this is what my trading rules look like.
Max Position Size AUD
1. Trade intraday primarily (unless carrying over is in the original decision)
2. Trade Retracements/ Bounces on multiple time frames
3. Favoured Time 4PM to 4AM
4. Set price alarms
5. IndiciesMainLong for trade setups
6. IndiciesMainShort for trading
7. Check 1 min chart when high velocity
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55 minutes ago, dmedin said:
15 minutes on DAX, got shafted lol
I have been up the last 12 hours and have scaled out of a small short on the Dax about a dozen times.
When I am shaken into something it is usually FOMO, and when I am shaken out of something it is usually because the analysis of support/resistance and price action was not very good to begin with.
I find it useful to keep a visual reminder on the chart in the form of price alarms and it helps in assessing the risk/return at any given price.
Oh and if I my attention is on the charts then I don't have time to post here.
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BOO HOO. I'm Losing Money Please Help
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
I fear that my online love affair with the Nikkei may be ending.