AndrewS

For example there may be a retracement on both the short term and the longer term and you are anticipating a bounce on both time frames. The trade may go much further that usual because on a higher time frame you may have gotten on board near the start of a longer term move.

Since someone was kind enough to click the like button for this post I will get back to it again. The problem is that plan is very difficult for me to implement, and I suspect many others would get mixed results trying this. A far better way to try to integrate short term and long term trading is to have a set-up in the same direction on both time frames. That way what may have been be a trade with a risk/return of 1:1 can become a trade with a risk/return of 1:10.

S&P and Dax both rally to 31/01/2020 lows.

This was not a good idea for me, but it was much more forgiving than the shorting the others.

I am still actively managing a short on the Nikkei. I closed out half when it traded below levels I sold at. My plan at the moment is to double up with a tight stop if it approaches the high and hedge if it if goes through the high. Alternatively I will just scalp on the long side for a different index.

I think it is overextended in the last 10 days as it approaches the 31/01/2020 low. Of course I may be forced to hedge some of the position.

The Nikkei is well through that level and I am short with a price alarm at 22,626. Lets see.

The 20 period MA (red line) was more useful on Wednesday and Thursday. The higher the velocity of a swing the more useful the shorter MAs tend to be for a retracement trade.

Five closes on a limit in a range in a row.

How profitable any approach is varies considerably under different market conditions (reversal, trend, range ext) so it pays to assess what the conditions are and whether they are changing.

I am looking at 5 books written by traders. One thing they have in common is that they mention specific setups or strategies and different market conditions ( range, retracement, breakout, trend, reversal). I tend not to trade crossovers or breakouts (although I do pay attention to them) but rather retracements and so I always have provisional stops and limits in mind.

Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.

Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.

Yes really. Al Brooks has a trading room and refuses to do this and I don’t blame him. Perhaps what seems more difficult is actually easier. Gain a small edge with a discretionary framework and build on that by acquiring a skill rather than a mechanical system.

The statistics are somewhat skewed by staggered entries and exits. You dismiss the “how” with a moment’s consideration and then proceed to ask “why”.

This is not the first time you have asked me this. The last week for me looks like this. Markets #Trades #Profit trades Win rate P/L ratio Return rate Wall Street Cash (A$1) 76 70 92% 0.44:1 1.33 I am achieving non-random results. I suppose you could say I am “cheating” by having a trading method.

I don’t give much weight to the analysis of people like Steve Nison because of the focus on reversals. I don’t use Donchian channels, Bollinger bans, Fibs or trade breakouts. Not anyone can see at a glance what someone who trades the same setups over and over across highly correlated markets sees. https://vault.si.com/vault/2011/08/08/its-all-about-anticipation “Before occlusion studies shed light on perceptual expertise in sports (the first significant tests were performed by Canadian researcher Janet Starkes on volleyball players in 1975), studies of chess masters were beginning to illuminate the underlying processes. In famous experiments starting in the 1940s, Dutch psychologist and chess master Adriaan de Groot gave grandmasters and club chess players five seconds to look at chessboards with the pieces arranged in game scenarios. Then the arrangement was taken away, and De Groot had the players reconstruct the board they had just seen. Grandmasters could remember the position of nearly every piece, while decent club players could reconstruct only about half the board. De Groot and subsequent researchers determined that the masters were "chunking" information—rather than remember the position of every piece separately, the grandmasters grasped small chunks of meaningful information, which allowed them to place the pieces. We all use this strategy to an extent in daily life. For example, while it would be difficult to remember 15 random words, it's much less difficult to remember a coherent 15-word sentence because one need only recall bits of meaning and grammar, which coordinate the order of words in your head. Moreover, to test whether the grandmasters' skill is the result of game experience or prodigious memory, psychologists have presented master and club players with chess boards containing pieces randomly arranged in a way that did not make sense in the context of a game. In that circumstance the experts' memories are no better than the club players'.”

A number of indices are just below some yearly pivots.

IG's calendar is wrong. It is -4.8

It seems to me that this guy has traded his version of it many times. http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2008/01/holy-grail-setup.html

I mentioned one here.

The funny thing is that you continually post that trading on short time frames is hopeless and yet there are signs that when you attempt to do it you are blinded by hope and fail to see what is in front of your eyes. Trade what you see (with a framework of high probability setups and good risk/return) not what you hope.

Support-Resistance grid is a term used by someone whose name I can’t recall. The only lines on the chart are candles, a price grid, a weekly pivot and a twenty period moving average.