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skyreach

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skyreach last won the day on September 26 2023

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  1. Here is a fascinating insight into the Markets, Central banks and governments reacting to situations example. And the 13 Myths of the Markets: https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/can-authorities-bolster-stocks-and-fend-off-recessions/
  2. Cautious time ahead? The symbol of China’s Real Estate, Evergrande, has gone burst - it has been ordered to liquidate by the courts. It owes $300 Bn, and to Overseas creditors it owes $25 Bn. In addition there are 1.5m customers without a home they have been waiting for in China. Also, there are 50 other Chinese real estate companies that have defaulted or missed payments in the last 3-years according to the S&P ratings agency. A huge fallout is likely to come in the markets when the major players plug the plug.
  3. @THT article in the "Time Cycles" has proven to be correct on the cycles indicating wars could begin. We have witnessed another one in 2023 now! So take the hint from THT that Cycles have a big role in all areas of life. Psychology plays a major part with cyclical behaviour, since we humans have habits, moods, and attitudes that shape outcomes. Socionomics Cyclic studies also has a great tract record of indicating the general mood phases. China;s Evergrande, property sector, is down 99%. The US economists still chant it will have little effect on the US!!!!!!!!! Complacency continues with economists, and the investors. But what if, as in the initial phase of every past recessions, the US Housing Price Indexes drops lower? Interest rates huge rise is a precursor. The US FED is still intent on getting the economy into a recession in order to bring their high rates down to 2% range. The big irony is that the FED encouraged the rates rise which followed after a great deal of time lag, from the massive increase in the QE program of the recent past. That plus the artificially ultra low rates for a long time encouraged a bubble economy in all areas and excessive debts build up. Can you estimate or analyse and evaluate the outcome from all this?
  4. China has been lending to developing countries already in heavy debt, who are already distressed. They lend for infrastructure projects, to control these countries and for strategic purposes by making secretive agreements. They also have a heavy penalty charges for defaults. The problem for these countries is that china charges higher interest charges than the IMF / World Bank rates. That entraps these countries in an even worse case than with the IMF. China has lent between $1 to 1.5 trillion to developing countries, probably making it the biggest debt collector. On top of that its own country's debt is huge, Its building constructions companies debts very heavy too Like western countries. it is at highest ever debts. Hence the financial structural integrity is at fracture levels. Lots of leaks and possible debt implosion levels. Most countries like China continue to print extra heavy load of money, do internal juggling of debt structures. France is having to use tax-free savings accounts to fund future defence spending. Too much debts, heavy charges, poor micro-economic factors for majority of businesses, increasing bankruptcies, and major debt restructuring taking place. Major questions are: So, how long can they try to defy the financial debt-gravity black hole? What will trip it, over finally? HOW LONG CAN THIS CARRY ON BEFORE IT IS OVER-STRESSED? WHAT HAPPENS IF DEFAULT OCCUR by a developing country? What knock-effects can take place, around the world? One thing is sure. The people of China may be in for a hard time. What will happen to China has happened to other countries over the last century alone. Currently, the West has similar problems too, China is not alone. No one has learned the lessons of the past for their own vested interests. The FED will not be able to control or manage the outcomes, as in past history they could not handle it. There will will be plenty of finger pointing of the “reasons why” the turbulence or a crash. How long will the eye of the storm last? THE END OUTCOME? People and businesses will pay a very heavy price, and taxpayers will become trapped under very heavy taxes, by direct and indirect ones. New challenges lie ahead. There is another major event on the horizon in the making too. How will that be related to events of the world? This has been many years in the making, FED-led, with laws formulated into law and pushed onto the world's countries into taking out new digital currencies. Fully digital, run by government and can be manipulated by the respective government, while it is controlled by the central banks. Bankers forwarded this plan-set-up as it suites their control and dominance in how they can get their loans, failures, high risk taking etc.. from closing any mega big banks. Even the famous Jim Richards has dire warnings about the uses of the new currencies. Unless laws are placed to safe-guard individual's rights and freedom to use their own money the way they want, and no extra tax burden to depositors or charges by banks with negative rates, or account charges , etc...... It has already happened in some places. This should not be used as a “solution” to reduce government debts. The digital currency will be a new currency. It will replace the paper fiat money based (i.e. paper currency without any backing of the gold standard). No gold standard means volatility in currency and banking (as before). It means loss of purchasing power as we have had with fiat money, as ever. The key facts will be that no one can take money out of any bank if a bank goes bankrupt, (digital currency)! And digital transfers can be stopped. Banks can save themselves via the depositors money as the laws have been passed quietly sometime ago.'. It takes a lot of time to plan, and put into the laws. So, they know that when a serve recession hits the country big banks at least will be shielded from a total loss. This is the vested interest of the big banks. How can it take place? One possible way could be similar to the 2012-13 Cyprus tax , or by negative rates or, in other ways. And the enforcement by governments to force us to use our hard earned cash-in-the-banks or get penalised in some way. How could it happen? By a bank defaulting or, because of the highest ever government debts the banks would want their money back without defaults taking place. Many smaller banks will fall, as others have done in past recessions. So, you have few and fewer independent banks in existence, i.e. less competition. And, all people and organisations of the world will become easy to monitor fully, financially. A financial police state monopoly for the government to control our financial lives according to Jim Richards. This is part of the Big Government policy implementation. President Biden has re-stated the big government social plans in the USA. This has often repeated after many recession had began (initial phase). Others countries tend to follow suite. That means overheads increase, deficits and debts increase and taxes (direct and indirect ones particularly). This is the vested interest of Big Government ideologists and its supporters. The question is: What justifications will they use to justify in implementing the digital currency, for the public consumption? One reason could be that it is cheaper for banks!!!!! So, in investing or Day trading be weary of believing the PR expressed via the media. Use key micro-economic factors and investing techniques. The alternate is to use charting methods, but you do have to learn it well for good applications. Even after that, you need to plan trades and understand your psychological profile. Random trading or understanding trading methods poorly can make you more wrong than right. The markets are an unforgiving environment. You have to respect the way the markets operate as they do have their way. Remember, that the markets and Wall St. are total pros who have worked out how all investors behave over decades and decades of experience built into their computers systems.
  5. Today on IG is the news article “BREAKINGVIEWS – Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive”. It backs the likely hood of a very poor global economy. However, if you think that the UK will be bad or worse than Europe or USA than think again. Each will have their own troubles which arises from the same primary source that I have discussed in my article here at IG – see my blogs. Bernard Connolly, economist, his book: “The Rotten Heart of Europe”, critiques the European Monetary Union. He lost his job with the European Commission as a result. Vested do not welcome alternate views or solutions. His latest book: “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” Breakingviews / Reuters article statement today says: “Another financial crisis is not far away, in Connolly’s view. When markets collapse, the central bankers will return to their old ways, cutting interest rates and boosting asset prices. Under those circumstances, long-dated government bonds should provide the best protection for investors. For example, U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, whose face value rises in line with consumer prices, currently yield around 2.4% for a security maturing in 30 years. That’s a fair return in normal times and could prove an outstanding investment if Connolly’s analysis turns out to be even half correct.” This is likely to happen sometime in the near future. The Bond Markets reacted by a interest rates just recently – US 30-year bonds at 5%+ for the first time since the 2007 recession. Apparently the mainstream professionals were surprised!!!! So, it should make you wonder why is it surprising? My article goes into that: “INVESTMENT MARKETS – Ghost of Christmas Past, Present and Future”. And also, “The Way of the Markets” article. Edward Chancellor’s book: “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest”. And also the book by G.-Edward-Griffin, “The-Creature-from-Jekyll-Island”. The later book really gives the true background of the banking model and practices of the central banks and why it will fail with boom and busts. Also, for those interested in knowing how the Soviet Union's (old Russia), European Union's and the FED's accounting system work would do very well to read the book: "How The Euro Dies" by Nick Hubble. The factual data gives the an understanding how this currency operates. Mainstream professionals will continue to ignore the facts, and the truth as it means they do not like to change or give up their incorrect models and theories. So long as the professionals and governments do not wise up or wake up from this "do not rock the boat" attitudes, it will continue to cost us all many many trillions globally and harm every country.
  6. Yes, there are may time-sized cycle. I will bear in mind your data. It is very good. This is going to be an interesting year forward! All the best.
  7. If you ever have wondered how the markets work and if there is any relationship with Economic-Central Bank-financial data, and booms and busts, then this article is worth reading. Now we are in the verge of a recession fear. Economists created the Yield Curve Recession Indicator long ago. WHICH INDICATED A RECESSION a while back (first with the USA, as it usually starts there, the biggest economy in the world). The agreed upon definition of the Market in recession is, 20% market fall from a High. IT HAS ALREADY BEEN INDICATED IN 2022 (first with the USA). Economists have a recession defined as two quarters of GDP decline, for economics reasons. Currently most economists are 'basking in the sun, while it lasts', so to speak regarding how the economy appears to hold up, for now (September 2023) Insiders Transactions Ratio have a bearish signal(USA) – a recession indicator. Many companies business metrics, the micro-economics factors are at very worrying valuations. Many companies with no profits and with high debts, or many businesses and banks with ultra-high debts. All the metrics that exist are under their bonnet out of focus from most economists viewpoints and full analysis, or not known in the public arena. Inflation measuring yardsticks now have a new companion, the PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditures price Index that excludes Housing, Energy and food cost rises. How convenient for central bankers to change the goal post and make it more complex for analysis, and in comparing real life costs, like for like!!! At September end 2023, the Chicago FED President (USA) considers we could see stable employment even with interest rates raised high. Usually employment numbers get reduced considerably by now on average timing but it has not done so, yet. AI will resurrect the Economy and be our saviour is the current slogan in the media!!!! Most professionals and Wall St feed positive news to the media, or the PR impression they wish to give. Currently, the media is giving us the “magnificent seven” US tech companies to make us feel as if 'all is rosy' scenario. After-all, their stock pricks have been doing well. But, hey! What about the rest? Anyone? The Bond Market (USA), at the start of October 2023, has publicly proclaimed the end of low interest rates and inflation era. The FED has used that data to consider their next action. Bond Markets determine the levels of Interest rates, well in advance of any decisions the Central Banks make to raise or lower rates as they follow behind the Bond Market in time (lag behind, many weeks). But bankers proclaim they are in control!!! The Bond Markets follow the actual real world dynamics as they are taking place. But majority of the financial community follow the bankers beliefs. For example, the FED, is apparently looked on as the “oracle experts” and most scrutinise their every word, and try to read between the lines and inform all the world their personal evaluation of this FED double-talk, or even the odd 'straight-talk' that rarely occurs, Their focus is on inflation levels. The markets get affected whether they talk mystically or give it straight. You then have a knee-**** reaction in the markets usually. Or, in a major critical period or condition, that is used to justify big moves in the markets which is caused by big money players only. Then, there are also other triggers that unfold too, over time ( e.g. China property companies in the background currently, the big Swiss bank collapse a short while back and FTX Exchange fraud scandal or other unfolding ones in the background – all examples of badly managed, corruption or bad metrics). The Ghost of Christmas Past is concerned with the Christmases from Scrooge's past. Our representation of him here would be 'Wall St'. It reflects Scrooge's memories, old and new. As one memory comes sharply into focus another fades. This also highlights here, how all the majority of investors forget the past true history of related events, and facts as Wall St. PR guides them forward. The Spirit also represents Scrooge's youth episode, and when Scrooge is old so the Spirit will also appear old. Here, that reflects the past booms and recessions. Currently, in September 2023, “good news” from the FED. No rate rises for now, but maybe one later on, and hints of rates to remain high for awhile. And, “THIS TIME THE CRISIS IS DIFFERENT” some professionals chant. The public have already poured their monies back into the markets. Yet the market big money folks have now dropped the market from the September high!!!!! And, time will tell if the FED (and others) are right or not. Most economists and bankers are proclaiming “no recession in 2023” and a “new bull market” now! THEY HAVE TOTAL OPTIMISM, so they tell us via various media. Yet the market big money has acted opposite to that PR news given out. The dynamics of different Industry Sectors behave differently too, so the collective total of these activities is an average gauge, at any one time. Similar pattern of thinking and actions has happened in the past too. Scrooge ( 'Wall St' ) tries to ignore the vision of his unhappy childhood (past recessions) that the Spirit reveals to him, examples such as 1929, 1978, 1987, 2000, and 2008 (Covid period was a separate and a temporary major episode). In each case “THIS TIME THE CRISIS IS DIFFERENT” has been stated in various ways in the past too. So the public has poured their monies into the markets. In 1929 was the boom period when “suddenly”it resulted in a severe market crash. The professional vested interests had been chanting the Market bull will go on at the time before the crash! The 2000 recession was “due to” the dot.com, i.e. the Internet companies. The 2008 recession was said to be “due to” the subprime mortgage crisis. In each case the economy was considered rosy prior to the crash!!! Nobody looked under the bonnet seriously at all, after all if they had and fully analysed those metrics the conclusions would have been different. In the story, by Dickens, the Spirit shows Scrooge his engagement to the love of his life, Belle, and his subsequent painful parting from her. When Scrooge becomes upset by these memories, the Spirit says, “These are the shadows of the things that have been. That they are what they are, do not blame me”, said the spirit. In our equivalent representation Scrooge would be 'Wall St' because they are totally in love with money only – any which way they can milk it from all others. Just think of all the list of major key factors that are indicating alarm bells in the present period, such as (true for many countries): Majority of all enterprises / businesses / governments involved have over expanded too fast and excessively; Entertained too much Debts burdens; Taken on too much (extreme) big risks; Silicon Valley Bank (US West Coast) and Signature Bank (East Coast) were major failures (few more followed on too afterwards); Allowed and encouraged major fraudulent companies (from the regulatory standpoint) and hardly ever scrutinised them at the start and forward into the future. They are only looked at in the late stages and the early stages of a recession; Highest Extreme margin debt levels; Heavy complicated entwining of credit swaps and derivatives by every major banks. So when any one of them collapse then it is bought at dirt cheap crashed price, or else, they fall like dominoes and beg for subsides in various forms to be saved or the whole system will collapse (and you pay for that created mess, as taxpayers); Apparently little long term full fiscal planning and solvency planning via professional business management or else it was very poor or lax for many companies; Excessive money issuing (QE) to “support” various “situations”, “poor economy”, “recession”, “too big to fail”, “must have subsides to prop-up failing businesses for those job losses from happening”, “badly run businesses”, “banks mustn't fail or chaos”, and for “high risk takers who “cause” a recession and job losses”. So society pays for their created financial mess, via the central banks or the government directly; USA GDP has been (and in other western countries), with every period of input of excessive money printing (QE), giving dwindling average levels , compared to periods without QE type of mechanisms periods. We now have had the highest credit card debts, but that is slowly likely to go down as various costs rises and a recession unfolds. Markets move in waves. Not in straight lines. Look at various bull market phases and bear phases. Currently we are still down from the all-time highs. We've had a dead cat bounce. During this phase lot of things appear positive! But What will be next? Fear tools are enacted by the media when the bad effects come out, or the bigger effects are triggered. No possibility to “prevent it” any more. Crash goes the markets! What a surprise, shock!!!! In the past pre-recession periods, such behaviour was just flippantly cautioned by central bank officers, e.g. “ebullient”. The fact they saw red signals but not warn government to do something to sort it, or other authorities at that time. The same symptoms as in most past recessions are here ONCE AGAIN in the present period. And, as in the past 110-years, market forces has NOT BEEN ALLOWED to naturally play off its own mismanagement of finances, and learn from their own mistakes and handle their own irresponsibilities. Governments bail out many private enterprises as pleaded by them to do so and as advised central banks. However, if they were made to take their own responsibilities then the next generation would not do it again. And, prudent, ethical practices would be enforced, by law. What does Debt mean? It means you are getting products or services on a loan when you do not have the money to exchange it with. So you tied yourself to paying it off over a period, which will cost you a hell of a lot more than if you saved up and then did the transactions. Debt is fine for big item purchase, such as a car, house or college fees. If you can't pay up then you default and go bankrupt, and lose possessions to pay debt collectors. With regards to banks with their huge colossal risky debts that continue to show losses they then like to sell it on. So they get it approved to sell it onto other general investment groups. It frees up that much capital. Then they increase their risky assets without a care, once again instead of being prudent, having improved their capital ratios. Later on they pass on more of the increased risk losses from their books, onto investors. There is a further, more critical reason too (explained earlier, the intertwining). This is a very flawed practice as the investors tie up their free money in taking on losses of other banks (or even governments who take on toxic debts) that can in time create losses for them. At best it means that investors money is not used for real productive use, e.g. investing in new products, and goods and services which would help growth. When big private companies and banks default or go bankrupt, (a similar position as individuals), they get huge direct or indirect subsides to carry on with their faulty practices and bad management. Ironically, the government usually never take their 'valuables' and collaterals in exchange, plus charge fees and royalties for bailing them out!!!!!!! What a cosy set up system for big business!!! The good get penalised, and the bad causers of the problems get rewarded – let someone else pay for all the chaos they created!!!!! Unlike Scrooge who really changed (wised up) for the better in the story, in our real life case that is not the case, very sadly. Same old habits, same old addiction to excessive greed, prudent practices out, excessive risk taking in. Same old unworkable practices and theories remain in use now. And, similarly patterned new fraudulent practices still coming into existence. Governments fail to implement constant policing, detection and heavy penalities applied early on to those who create or encourage it. Just think of a few of the past down right scams by WorldCom, Enron, and HealthSouth in the USA where all the so called financial systems and regulations are considered be the the “best”. So something is not well organised and structured with correct laws to deal with the scams and frauds. When times were good and money was plentiful, these companies’ accounting scandals were easy to paper over and ignore. Look for the facts and evidence that exists and unfolds, if you know how, and not the rhetoric given by the professionals who have led us into all the past recessions, and the present one. After all, if they were such 'good professionals' then your money would not be put into jeopardy so often, or at all. So, some things are not right, but how? It has to be in how they conduct these practices, fact. Central banks, economists and financiers critic how 'complex' economics is, and that global events, geopolitical events, big countries economies, or a large company / bank failings are to blame for triggering a recession. Yet these have been the KNOCK-ON EFFECTS of the effects of having applied QE monetary policies, and having allowed run away extreme huge debts to be allowed in the first place. And globally all countries have been following the same practices as the USA. We repeat the same practices that are flawed, for the last 110-plus-years of the FED's existence. We use fixed theories, vested interests and excessive greed influences all at various levels of industry and government. The end result has had a devastating financial and social effects on the general population and businesses for generations. And it will do so again for generations to come unless real changes are brought about. Let's face it, Central Bankers, big Bankers and the Economists have NOT EVER SOLVED THIS with their past “solutions”. FACT. We are still facing similar major problems. It is only new inventions, innovations and products that has saved us from going down totally. Ironically, we think of ourselves as a financial power-house in the West. Yet most of these countries are in the highest ever debts, living beyond their means, and spending excessively with much wastage, as if there is no tomorrow, and no consequences to pay for by the Central bankers and the big Banks determinations. So most public think and go on with “but this is how it is” blinkers on. After-all, the majority are “not experts”, just naturally ignorant on how these practices are operated and have to trust the so called professionals in these fields, by default. And, most professionals glibly let it be and become herd followers. But, most instinctively also know when something is doggy or not right. Or even when the wrong section of society is penalised (all taxpayers) instead of the true professionals who are to blame and should be made to take full responsibility. They would cry out that it has happened to most countries so 'not our fault, it is happening everywhere'. But, didn't they, overs many decades ago, export to other countries to follow similar dictates, e.g. via the G7, G20, and the World Economic Forum (Davos)? Currently (by sept. 23) some sectors / stocks had recovered but this been just a dead cat bounce most likely. That is something you have to figure out from the charts. I have shown some economic pointers / indicators. You get data from, say, 50-100 economists and they will either say bullish from here on, or some will say maybe trouble later, currently. The media select data given to them or are selective themselves and at key junctures they can say one thing and a little time later the opposite occurs! It happens often, hence the existence of contrarian indicators!! We all have to rely on others for data to a great extend. But, is that data based on solid empirical data and their evaluations fairly accurate? Or, does it at least points in the right direction? Or is it their opinion only, or flawed judgements? Remember, all data is usually based on some or many assumptions before they make their conclusions as these subjects are not exact science based. There are very many economic and financial metrics. So which one are important and key, or which ones apply under the given conditions? And there are many projections which are based on probabilities and then one is selected! Whose judgement can you believe and, were they correct often in the past? After all, performance – good or bad – is the big test. Let's face it, all workers get performance reviews. So, why not those in charge, bankers, central banks, economists, company top Execs and financiers too. Very Poor performance, from those who affect the lives of millions and cost us billions, should means loss of position, or even a ban from working in those fields at the worst. For the average person it is difficult to seriously know for sure which professionals are likely to be correct! After all, you may not know the technical jargon and the possible implications involved. That is why you have to understand some basics of the given subject to use it well, particularly if you are a relatively inexperienced trader / investor. Alternatively, you should know how to use charting methods, Gann, Elliot Waves, or other workable methods. Charts are empirical data, based on real time data. Trading also requires money management and discipline for good success. Experienced traders have come up the ladder this way. Psychology too plays a big part. The market players and the market maker will try to trick you out at a loss, as will the big money traders in the game. So it is worth knowing charting methods! As a trader, can you evaluate the real time chart data in front of you reasonably well? Prudent investors (and companies) are the ones who have paid a heavy price over the decades for all the misconceived Western countries policies, e.g. off the gold standard, authorising excessive QE practices and setting very lax laws for financial-banking community. So knowing some of the major factors in play in the financial world can give the professionals an edge to survive better, and the private investor. The future is still to come. It is slowly unfolding before our eyes. A case of Deja Vu. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE GHOST OF CURRENT FUTURE GOING TO BE? Pablo Gil, IG Market analyst (3/10/23), thinks we will hit a recession in 2024. Jim Richards and Harry Dent think it is already in progress. There are very many bankers, economists, and financiers who have written good books on the inside practices of the financial-banking-economic world (or on utube). You should look out for some and get familiar with what is going on as the media will never give you the real truths but use the PR of the universe of vested interests. See my past blog “The Way of The Real Markets” that compliments this article with other data viewpoints too. I hope this gives a good overview and understanding of the financial-world-game in play, and the many pitfalls that exist which do not get resolver ever.
  8. Thanks THT. Great data. Pity Brokers do not have software of this calibre that would help traders a lot more, and quick work Price / Time charting. They offer the standard tools.
  9. WD Gann Said over 100 years ago "When TIME & PRICE BALANCE, the trend HAS to change" . Yes, there is a definite maths relationship, Via Gann or Elliot-waves. The pity is I cannot get Gann Angles on IG as they are not properly defined as per Gann, and do NOT REMAIN FIXED AT THOSE ANGLES WHEN YOU CHANGE TO ANY TIMEFRAME!!!!!!!! Even the Gann fan angles, used by all brokers, are a joke. These angles are not set arbitrarily as the system allows, and no means to measure angles!!!!
  10. Isn't it very ironic that all traders and investors have to know and understand the methods of trading and have a sensible money management plan. Yet it is surprising how financial professionals do not follow this as the many major loses they have on their accounts. An amateur may be forgiven for not following such guidances but it can be costly. After decades of money mismanagement by the central banks and the governments, various but biggest culprit being the US, we may be headed into major market volatility. A major financial destruction of finances for people, worse than most previous recessions, is likely to occur sometime. The implications are well explained in various articles, one being the most important for the banks, and on how that effects the markets and the ordinary Joe Citizen. As I have said in the past, all subsides and excessive money issuing has adverse effects and causes a bubble market in many areas of the economy. Here is more evidential proof to back up that premise. The effect on the markets then take shape in many forms, e.g. higher inflation, purchasing power loss of currency, higher taxes (direct and indirect), etc... It causes a financial repression. Have read of the following, and other article on that site for revealing information: https://dailyreckoning.com/108816-2/ The site does explain many issues, geopolitics, economy, debts problems, etc... in understandable way. That is refreshing to find.
  11. BEWARE! Lot of cliques exist for traders and investors. And, there are many many indicators and even snake-oil investment methods merchants who may try to lure you to try them out. That can make it more confusing or, give you information not worth using. Also, no trader should rely on indicators solely as they will not work at times. And use only key indicators and methods you are adapt at using well. Tried and tested indicators and methods are useful. But note, indicators are mostly lagging indicators. Market Maker can and will push prices as they want which actually creates the indicators patterns. So price moves lead. However, Market Makers can and do manipulate the way chart patterns are formed. They even buy or sell for their own accounts too. A lot of factual data exists from ex-market makers so check it out on the internet. Check out the various manipulate tactics used by them, e.g. slippage for buy or sell orders and incentives given to brokers by them. Market Makers make the market and they control the 1st and last hour of trading. WE SEE THE NET RESULT OF VARIOUS BUY / SELL PLAYS ONLY. What happens behind the scenes is something else.
  12. THT --- thanks for that valuable info. It is good to see someone who knows and uses Cycles. W. D. Gann and Elliot Wave cycles are very workable too. And the market players will try to take advantage to MAKE traders WRONG often. This is their one of their psychological tools used. After all, if you were right the other big players would make far less money.
  13. This is a good video by Mark Douglas to learn from. Psychology is IMPORTANT. Your temperament to different types of volatile trading methods IS SOMETHING YOU have to recognise, and then improve upon. You cannot expect to win trades all the time. You have to learn to kept loses small and profits bigger, to win. So you can be wrong say, 75% of the time, but the bigger wins make you an overall winner. Many top traders have this sort profile. The markets are there (MARKET MAKERS -- MM) to take your opening positions (& close). Someone will take the opposite trade (often as a credit spread). Otherwise the MM also does a private deal with big money players, often, and trade for them privately. E.G. They need to sell 10m shares of stock X. They cannot place it all in one go as the price will shoot down big time. So the price will swing down and sometime later swing up to get an average price higher to sell the next batch. The MM makes a handsome commission and takes out other players in the process. Besides computerised trading software is their ace card. You WILL often see then shooting back in the opposite direction to take out stop loss positions, then reverse back to their original direction. Hence you are in a shark infested waters, if you do not learn trading methods. That is one of the reasons for the professionals to have that loaded dice advantage (there are others too). It is EASY to an investor, for the long term IF IT IS A BULL MARKET FOR THE LONG TERM. You do not have to know anything to place a trade and win. BUT WHAT HAPPENS, IF A STOCK TURNS, OR AN INSTRUMENT, OR A SECTOR, OR THE WHOLE MARKET? How will you recognise it, or when --- when it is too late? The markets will NOT tell you and different professionals pull their hopes in different directions. And so a lot of the economics is "noise" regards trading. Business fundamentals ARE NOT analysed OR FOCUSED ON as the MACRO ECONOMICS IS. Economists are wrong most of the times as their prediction models ARE PRIMARLILY BUILD ON LINEAR EXTROPLATIONS, short periods or on long periods. Life does not work that way. MARK DOUGLAS EVEN POINTS THIS OUT from another perspective. See my other blogs to get an overview of how markets work.
  14. It is interesting that “news” is now, September 2023, filtering out that the economy could falter as US bankruptcies are on the rise. The media only begins to highlight this now. This has actually being rising for sometime and will get worse, as one of my past blog stated. And read “The way of the Markets” blog if you have not yet done so. Jobless claims is becoming worrying. Jobs growth is down badly recently. Layoffs are on the horizon. But the key here is that jobless claims did not shoot up fast under the weight of huge fast rates rises. This is simply due to the fact that many baby boomers are constantly retiring and employers have to keep hold of what they have got until they have to address it for a worsening economy. It is odd how most economists failed to take that into account. As I had said, in the past, the economy is last to fall in a recession / depression (could be the latter this time). Time will bear this out. China will have its deflation (that damages many sectors of businesses) no matter how they introduce BIG government spending (as western countries do). Its peoples economic throat has been cut by its policies, that kind of news does not get shown much in western news. Maybe the west may use this as an excuse for the next stage of the recession's start, or some other key primer to say, suddenly with a surprised look on their faces, “the economy is going into a recession”. China just copies the poor western practices and it will cost their population dearly. They also have copied many of the west's industrial products and technologies to get ahead, and build up a huge military for war. Their dictator leader is obsessed with dominance and control over countries and the seas for absolute power. This may not be too strange to us in our backyard of history. As, for some shadow, the genetic entity, it seems to push the unconscious obsession for dominance. History is full of too many examples of this, and their eventual downfall, at great cost of lives. And President Biden's Big government plans will NOT solve any economic or financial problems (except it will help the bankers in other ways), as I have mentioned before. The coming Digital Dollar (to replace the paper based currency) means a CHANGE OF CURRENCY as the fiat money (paper currency was ruined by 98% loss in its value under the FED stewardship). So much for the way financiers and big businesses who look up to them!!!!! I wonder why they fail to see the GLARING FAULTS in the money system with NO backing from a gold standard? But, I guess, they love short term advantages over the more longer term stable lasting enterprises. Or they cannot just look beyond the sort term 5-10-years). General Motors is in likely problems with over reached overheads and Union issues. Big businesses who had dirt cheap heavy loans out will be continuing to restructure them under the heavy rates rises which had to happen eventually. But you should reflect on the fact that their Executives and economists did not consider the full economic cycle normal routine to bear in mind the future rates rise!!! They were all seduced and blinded by the cheap money, the Dark Side. Their greed was greater and above their company's long term financial health concerns, after-all, the bankers had, once again, “solved economies from collapsing by way of issuing new endless supply of money” (false monetary theory practices). And you thought money now grows on trees! Check out on how the REAL ECONOMY OPERATES. More bankruptcies will follow on forward, USA, China and Europe. Key economic data is used to justify how the markets will move next. This is often used by the Big Money boys. Then moves in the markets are sold as if the “market” panicked because of factor X! Others big players then might follow. You see that in the trend as it develops. Nothing goes up, or down, in a straight line for long but in cycles. A big trend up or down shows the power of that continuing wave move. So what is the takeaway from all this NOW? If you are a long term Bull then watch for change of direction and key indicators. It has already started in my view. You have to be more versatile in the coming change. Do not listen to all the hype by “experts” otherwise you could end up with the wrong information to make evaluations in the markets. One day economic factor x is “bad”, week later another economic factor y is “good”! That will not help nor give you a good template to work from, as a trader or as an investor. Bankers KNOW what is going to come down the road but only give titbit of information and make general public statements such as to say “maybe this” and “some chance of a recession happening”, etc... but the main facts they have paints a different picture and they are already using the real facts to their advantage, before others. But they have lent too much (excessive) money and created derivatives products for extra income (by selling it to any financial company willing to go for them). Huge, historic highest ever in margin debts are betting for the bull to continue (most are in the financial industry!!!). And a lot of the public are into bullish options!!! A lot of Bulls will be caught napping down the time-line. You have this indicator at major market highs. Market Indices are usually not the main places to look to, except in major trend change periods. Look at Industry Sectors for how well they are doing and which companies in it are. Those who follow cycle turns should have gotten one major down turn in 2022, and another this year, for another down turn again. They can let you know on that, if that is the case!!! Know well the charting patterns and cycles, and the major trend, or the main trend change. Or, follow a successful tip-sheet service who recognises a coming bear phrase, to guide you.
  15. For factual data on above article: See https://business.time.com/2009/05/12/gillian-tett-tells-how-jp-morgan-made-credit-derivatives-big-then-backed-off-before-they-blew-up/ And other brilliant utube documentaries by the Financial Times in the past. Nowadays I find they poor at such fact investigations. A pity really. I wonder who now owns the FT? SEE ALSO: Good, true education is vital to the understanding of what's going in the markets. Have a good trading day!!!
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