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786Trader

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Everything posted by 786Trader

  1. Technicals were all at their peak. Moving averages were due to cross and did. Trigger point. Normal retracement suggested 8-13% down trend, especially after such a sustained Bull run. Hedge Funds took their profits and freed up some cash while remaining Bullish in overall outlook. Been on holiday from trading subsequent to retracement, as was knackered and had had a good couple of months, so figured it was better to chill out than burn out. Back on it now though and took some time to investigate likely algorithms for future trading strategies.
  2. As a creature of habit one tends to stick with the familiar, the usual, the normal and view with scepticism anything that doesn't fit within well known parameters. That includes, in my case, trading. However, times change and tempus fugit and we are too young to be so old, as to not at least examine and understand the new. I am not only talking about algorithmic trading but of decentralised finance, web 3.0 and the ramifications for global finance. And it's happening now. It is foolish to ignore or reject out of hand for reasons of being new and wildly unstable, as it is no longer new and is
  3. Really enjoying your missives re market timing. Thank you for your continued diligence. Interesting and informative. Left field too, which is satisfying. Your understanding of the methods of WD Gann are profound, though suspect WDG adopted said methods rather than originally authored them. Btw, suspect Oil market will retrace from Monday/Tuesday, till 23rd March(ish) then resume it's bullish trend. Have a great weekend and look forward to your next update.
  4. Life can be viewed as a series of random events to be survived. Others may prefer to see patterns within the random. Others again see patterns repeating and the random chaos being slightly more organised than previously envisaged. Other fatalists see it all as the omnipotent ones' great plan and who are we to question? Which is great if one passively accepts the seemingly inevitable, not so great if one sees the chance to change and actively seeks to affect change. As the planet spins and we experience constant change in motion. Commodities have boomed, on a Bull run last witnessed during
  5. A correction is due. 11 months pretty much straight bull run, barring one pullback in October that lasted less than a week. Agree, if not now then certainly by the end of June. Possibly a pullback by March, followed by another race to the moon before sanity/common sense/ global shock takes precedent and we all realise just how expensive most everything is. In the meantime, it's just one really stonking party! Until it's not.
  6. Not that I am complaining. So far, almost every long position I have has popped, with the exception of the FTSE or Flat Stonks exchange, as it's been the ugly duckling of world indices for quite some time. From USD weakness to barn storming world and US indices to commodities that have risen to orgasmic heights plus bonds of all descriptions including total junk with stratospheric totally unreasonable valuations and how can we not mention cryptos? Supersized prices and Bears that have chosen hibernation over extermination this winter. What goes up can only keep going up is the new adage. Are w
  7. Have read this thread on reddit. It is interesting and potentially damaging, with a ring of truth to it. The idea of certain Funds counterfeiting shares for the purpose of shorting the market is pretty horrific, then punishment should be severe and swift. To suggest the DTC, Clearing and certain Hedge funds knew of this and conspired together to the same end is also of interest and warrants further investigation. The fact that all of this is over a stock that should cost no more than $30 and cost $4 at the beginning of the year is deliciously ironic. That it is called Gamestop is more so. Whet
  8. The principles of a free market are the same for large corporations and individuals alike. It would seem that GME and AMC have proved that all is not equal, after all. I understand why, in this case it is a simple liquidity problem that shuts out the " little guy" in favour of other large entities. However, the principle is the important matter here. It also seems that because of this, the government would like to start regulating the way markets work. Which rarely works out well for anyone. It is kind of a no brainer to short GME at its current price, even if, ironically, the pric
  9. In a significant bear day (all markets) it is reassuring that one is unable to trade.As we know, as day traders, time and speed are of the essence. Unfortunately, the IG platform has completely gone down. This is not the first time and I imagine the trading volumes are very high as there's chaos out there. The technicals all point down without even crazy crypto coin providing any green trades. Certainly on my watch lists. It was due. However, having one's hands tied whilst the ship sinks does somewhat impede ones ability to swim in the storm. Thanks IG.
  10. Ok, thanks Casey. So, empowered drama merchants then (the govt and it's advisors). Have found it pays to be sceptical, though am also a rank pragmatist (for my sins) and am prone to buy the rumour and sell the fact when opportunity presents. It would appear the current reactions to CV19 will inevitably create one mother of a future recession unless alternatives are found. Mind you last time the doo doo hit the fan clever old Bill Bernake invented QE. So lets hope for another similar wheeze this time!
  11. Ironic, when the most unstable of forces (Trump) finally exits, under duress, stage left, the worlds economies get exactly no time to breathe a sigh of relief. For the 2nd Friday in a row, nervous profit taking abounds. Markets , almost in totality are on the move and heading south for the winter (it seems). Naturally the outlier is Bitcoin, which is like the mad cousin at a family reunion where no one is quite sure what they will say or do next. It would appear that markets are becoming aware that the virus is not just going away. Far from it. More of the world is locking down again, ev
  12. As usual am enjoying the posts on this thread. They are informative and sometimes way out in left field. Casey, you sure do your research.... However, my question is; if the PR tests are so unreliable with false positives, how come in summer when there were very few recorded positive cases with a good deal of testing ongoing, were there so few deaths and those in hospital? Currently 1000's are dying everyday from Covid, according to Govt figures. It cannot all be down to testing, can it? Or manipulation of data? Again, on a personal front, my aunt Janis who lives in town (London) has
  13. As usual, interesting and informative. In response to the question "Who gains", would the response be China? They have certainly cleaned up in the Oil markets (mostly). Their economy has thrived where all others have failed. Honk Kong has been effectively silenced. However, one must temper such rash conclusions with more sustained research. It is true the Dragon(China) has awoken and it's only foil; the Eagle (America) is eating itself, much to the Dragons amusement. The virus is also highly contagious,(as Corona viruses are) mutates like an X man and is randomly deadly to those w
  14. They don't like losing money. Crypto is a one way bet, until the bubble bursts, which could be months or even years.
  15. Do you not consider the numbers are down because most of the country went into tier 4? Which is lockdown. Emergency and Casualty departments have been empty as people are now afraid to go to Hospital as they do not want to contract Covid. Also, as folk are discouraged from going anywhere or doing much of anything, there will be commensurately less accidents, mishaps, spread of other communicable diseases and general need for triage or emergency services, save for delivery to ever expanding Covid wards.
  16. Agree with the forecast. US is in the middle of a social storm (which should pass). Suspect 18th Jan may be a big day for social unrest as many Trump supporters and other nationalists may feel disenfranchised and demonstrate, possibly violently, their frustrations with the system. This may appear across the country and be interpreted as a negative.
  17. Great data, as usual Casey. Am not crying "witch". It is not a hunt. Maybe a hunt for the truth, yes. Regards personal bias, you have your personal bias, rather obviously. I genuinely appreciate it. However, are you not also looking to affirm your own personal bias in order to reaffirm your own narrative? In this case suggesting those who do not agree are neither scientific nor sensible. I could go further. The virus IS real. That much I contend and maintain, too many people with symptoms that I know and love have had it now. Fortunately, no one has died. There is much that does no
  18. Hi guys, It's forecast and yearly strategy time. Well I'm a tad late really. What does 2021 hold regarding finance, commodities and indices? Personal strategy for 2021 is obviously to not lose money, where possible. Being predominantly an Oil and gasoline trader, I shall start with that. Global stocks and supplies are just about balanced as of now with slight imbalance in US as Covid effects continue to stall demand in key states. However, OPEC+ seem to have their communal act together and are actually acting in unison regarding supply. Naturally, this has increased
  19. Glad to see the torch of conspiracy burning bright on this forum. Can only speak from a personal and local perspective regarding the virus. I can tell you that the hospital admissions related to Covid in our local hospital has gone from negligible (9 patients on December 3rd) to 19 less than a week later to 60 a week after that to over 200 last week. Numbers are available on the NHS website. I have no other information as I haven't seen my friend since we went into Tier 4, who works in admissions at the hospital for confirmation of said numbers. I occasionally text him but he prefers face to
  20. Bulls can be "bull headed". When whipped up into a frenzy (vaccine and stimulus) they can charge forward seeing nothing infront of them, just a will to move forward with the herd, to pasture green and new (and more valuable). It is understandable. Covid soon to become a bad memory, Stimulus will oil the vast economic behemoth that is the US economy and all will move forward. Dividends will return to pre pandemic levels. We will all buy a Tesla. The Fed will continue to buy bonds and feed the economy with ultra loose economic policy. Unemployment will ease to manageable levels. Trump wi
  21. Just a personal update... My son's school has effectively shut down as most of the pupils are working from home again (isolation) as the virus spreads through the school. 7 children in his year have tested positive, my son not, despite sitting next to one of the infected children in French and another in Music. So far most (5 of 7) of the cases have been asymptomatic. This has necessitated another Covid test for our home. (We are currently in Isolation by association 4.0) Again negative. It would appear the rate of infection is high, but with few actual cases that are not asymptomatic. Ma
  22. I must thank you Casey for being the counter-balance to general consensus. Though you often raise some interesting points , I do wander why 1/3rd of our hospitals are reaching capacity with Covid related issues. Were one to witness firsthand any Covid ward in any Hospital and suggest then that it is all over reaction or group hysteria, I suggest one may seem to appear callous and erroneous in perception. Which is where I have trouble with the whole denial/conspiracy narrative. I understand the scepticism, in fact it is healthy and to be encouraged. However, to then suggest there is a greater g
  23. Many people have predicted the downfall and disappearance of bitcoin They are still waiting. They may have a long wait. It is a currency. It is exchanged for goods, services and other currencies. It is secure. It's value is volatile, which is also its attraction for traders. If one does not want to trade them, then no problem, trade something else. I observe the Crypto market and marvel at it. Personally, it's Gasoline and Oil and by extension the Dow and FTSE that I prefer to trade. Our system of Capitalism is determined by trade, Bitcoin and Crypto are just another part of the
  24. The Fed wants to ban it or tax it. No central government likes crypto as its a form of financial anarchy.
  25. Very good point, Casey. They see Bitcoin and want to emulate it, or in the case of the Fed try and ban it. Bitcoin and Crypto have DEMAND. A Euro backed or $ backed crypto may not have them same demand, but will also be seen as currency. Crypto's lack of provenance (political and geographic) is a major USP. The market normally wins as governments know too well.
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