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786Trader

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Everything posted by 786Trader

  1. Have been following this thread with interest. Are you suggesting that a test will prove positive even if one has only had a cold 3 months ago (for example)? I presumed being in government meant by extension one was "in" power, certainly in control of the executive, which has not changed greatly since the advent of this virus back in January. I am still missing motive. Perhaps I have failed to notice the wood for the trees? Are you suggesting this virus is the same as any normal influenza virus, just slightly more deadly? This virus has thrived in any weathers (unlike influenza) and has best been tempered through social distancing measures. Or should we ignore all social distancing and let this virus spread unchecked? As it may be considered a fraud perpetrated by big pharma/dark, anonymous govt forces? Or is it really a nasty novel virulent virus that affects mostly the old, infirm, obese and weak? Your figures suggest no/negligible excess deaths this year for the UK, which is unusual and one must examine more closely the relevant data set concerned. For example you figures are for 2019/2020 and not for 2020 which surely would be a more accurate comparison.(First 9 months of 2020 to first 9 months 2019, 2018, 2017 for example). Enjoy the remains of your weekend🙂
  2. It doesn't matter what kind of edge you have, it's an edge and therefore an advantage. I shall look up Gann's basic methods and implement them on an experimental basis with real, hard, cold cash. Thank you for your interesting points. Am of the mind to discount and assume nothing, which makes viewing and implementing alternative market theorems easier. Some are crackpot theories, with a grain of truth (like Qanon) others perfectly functional but alternative rationale as yet unaccepted...look forward to Ganns theory. Will not get lost in the tunnel!
  3. France has over 10 000 new cases a day atm, rates are increasing, where they were decreasing. There is a resurgence of the virus where social distancing has been lax. True death rates are down as health systems become used to managing this novel virus, but it is still a virus most people would not want to contract. Most of us don't want to,partly as quarantine is both inconvenient and frustrating. There are those who support various conspiracy theories regarding this virus such as those who support Qanon. I am not sure they are right. They could be very wrong and slightly, dangerously mad(Qanoners). This is a novel virus with a 1-2% death rate (depending on methods of reporting death). Is this a chronic overreaction of world governments to this crisis? Is it a conspiracy to destroy the global economy? Certainly most governments have handled it poorly. Again back to the question of who gains? And why. Looks more like a natural phenomenon, a particularly virulent virus that preys on the weak,obese and vulnerable, plus it seems to hit the bame community harder than most others. It is novel and not in a good way.
  4. Why do you think both political parties want this (Covid) to last forever? Who gains from this?
  5. Equity is the only game in town as there is no profit in treasury or gilt or even bonds. Commodities are also over-bought. Last recession ultra low interest rates and QE led to a new commodity boom as China picked up the slack and got on with expanding at prodigious rates. QE underwrote the value of govt and commercial bonds and equity. This new mini recession (as they would have us believe) has resulted in the largest market intervention ever. Trillions of dollars, hundreds of billions of pounds, trillions of euros. All invented out of thin air. Economies have been poorly managed for a hundred years and debt has been the way out. Since then debt has been viewed as a good thing. Now debt is essential. Mountains of it. Whole continents of it. The concept of debt is borrowing a sum of money which is to be repaid. The new concept of debt is a sum of money to be repaid eventually, the longer the period of repayment the better. This is especially effective if the interest rate is low. Now it is non existent. Therefore, now the practise is to borrow as much money as required and more (don't forget the fees and bonuses) and repay it with more borrowed money, where no one really picks up the tab or pays the vig, as there is no vig. Piecemeal repayment and a policy of kicking the debt down the road, as someone else's problem. That's government debt. That's the US dollar, the GBP, the Euro, the Yuan. Not the Norwegian Krona. QE and mass injections of liquidity have kept global equity markets strong, especially the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow, most of which have made all time highs at a time when the world and especially the US, is actually struggling with a pandemic, mass unemployment, civil unrest and enormously vast national debt. None of which the equity markets have noticed or seem bothered by. It's all "meh" to equity traders. Everytime there is bad news one just has to ask "Hey Jerome, it's looking a bit dodgy, need some more cash" and the ever helpful Jerome just adds another zero to the credit limit. It's not his money, after all. It's all ones and zeros now anyhow. All of this has prevented and is preventing the markets from reacting normally. Capitalism relies on a system of boom and bust, not to mention wholesale exploitation of people and commodities (the earth's resources). It's a not a great system, but as compared to the witnessed alternatives it's the best we have got, until we develop a better alternative or improve what we have. All it is doing is kicking the can down the road. The system,as it is, needs the corrections. The corrections are generally not politically advantageous to incumbents. The situation we have now is one of willful ignorance. If the situation is ignored, it will not exist. In the meantime the Fed can keep on pumping more liquidity into asset bubbles and hope no black swans turn up...they may get away with it until past the election. Sooner or later this bubble will become unsustainable. And pop. Be prepared. I know I have ranting on about this since July when the markets over compensated with too much too quick, and the V looked the shape to be in, but am sure of it (the overvalued, over compensated Dow and Nasdaq)......there will be a reckoning. It is inevitable.
  6. You are so right Dmedin.. going long on the dollar is the smart play....not. Streuth man, it's devaluing against sterling, which is testament to how bad things are. When the dollar makes sterling look good, obvious thing to do is go long? Aye? Counter-counter intuitive. Or just not very bright. No inter-coursing way. They keep devaluing the currency everytime they print/invent trillions more of it, it dilutes the value of the currency. Or should do, if folk were to question it. Owt stranger than folk,as my nan used to say.
  7. Only 10 weeks to go and it's election time in the good ol' US of A.....This exciting time has certainly excited the markets with another bull run into sky blue beyond. Which naturally pleases the Donut. What with Covid now invisible and a distancing memory and the economy simply booming we can all sleep easy knowing what a good job has been done by the powers that be and there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about regarding investments and the economy. Phew! What about unemployment? I hear the cynics ask. Hmmm. Has Covid really gone away? Is there really a working cure? Since the president's office has taken over managing the Covid numbers, it's obvious the immediate effect was to drive the virus away. Surely drive the numbers down? There goes the cynic again....Naturally, hospitality has resumed its optimal level, as has retail. Plus, we are all flying and cruising again, not to mention watching live sport at venues and meeting face to face at the office... Really? Will someone attend to the cynic, he is seriously affecting my narrative. Naturally, there is no social unrest either as the current incumbents are so unbiased and fair-minded as to be near saint like and worthy of cult status. So it's all alright then? 100%. The markets never lie do they? Fair representation of the economic reality we all see on the ground. So what if they are pricing that beaten up old Citroen as a new Bentley, one day it will be a classic and surely be worth every penny. Old style measurements are so passe, who needs P/E anymore? No, blue sky thinking is required. Out of the box , blue sky thinking. Out of your box, surely? Will someone please silence the cynical voice of reason, this is not the time of reason. Dow back to pre covid levels, Nasdaq and S&P broken new records. Markets must be right. Everything is the same as it was before this mini crisis. Look at the numbers. They never lie. (Unlike the Donut). Enough of that Mr Cynic, you are such a Cassandra..... They can even go higher, afterall value is limitless,isn't it? The fed is promising indefinite ultra loose monetary policy, so why not? Out cynic that, Mr Cynic! Bye bye dollar then.
  8. Volatility is such fun. If you are on the right side of it , of course. Dow@ 27239, will go higher expect 27550+/- 1%. Then hang on to your shorts as it's big swinging cahones time. If there is no more stimulus, saving the Fed largesse then watch the Dow sink 3-5% as retrenchment may be the order of the day. With stimulus expect a gain, then retrenchment, then exuberance, then retrenchment, then a small nervous breakdown....... It's as if the Dow has become the schizophrenic naughty cousin of the S&P. Today is the last day before the delayed August break for Congress so it's pooh or bust for legislators, who will naturally blame each other if they fail to agree. Ahh the competence of governments.......
  9. IG are expensive where actual purchase of shares are concerned. There are better options out there if you simply want to buy and hold shares that charge zero commission. IG is more about trading. If you are buying lots of shares then IG is ok for share purchase. But, if you are buying small volumes and looking to sell quickly then IG is not the best company.
  10. One may have expected the Dow to surge forward in anticipation of another stimulus. Seems to be already priced in. In fact, looks like there is more anxiety and caution than the usual blind optimism. Looks like one piece of really bad news could set off an avalanche. If an extra trillion or two is not inspiring the markets higher then a suitable hedge down may be in order, n'est pas? Plus Brent can't seem to break $45 no matter how hard it tries. Even China is selling it's distillate stocks as they see the plateau and surmise things are going to get worse before they get better and are taking the money now. Have you been counting on a "V"? Hedge your position, volatility may well return with a vengeance. Just a different point of view.
  11. Once more the brilliant Bo Johnson comes to the rescue of sterling. His multi-dimensional-global-trade-deal-chess match is also doing fabulously well. Naturally, trade relationships with significant trading partners such as Europe, United states and China could not be better and the outlook is fairly reflected in the price of Sterling, which is devaluing like the Zim dollar (ok not quite that bad). Fair to say Sterling is holding its own against the US dollar (which has been diluting its value with trillions and trillions of dollars of new money), but against the Euro the only way is down, it seems. Some may suggest this is good for exports, others may argue not quite so, when reciprocal tariffs are factored in. Ahh the joy of tariffs. And we may have so many to factor, quantify and pay and pay. So much easier than the bureaucracy from europe then. Sterling / Euro pair have been ripe for shorting since the apparent determination of UK govt to leave without a deal and move to WTO rules, thereby subjecting all goods and services to tariffs. Just what the electorate voted for. So good for business. Naturally the city of London is overjoyed. Those shorting Sterling certainly are. Who would have thought the Euro to be so resilient? Bo Johnson the brilliant, tooling with UK trade, or just tool? A combination of arrogance and very unfortunate timing has combined to take the alleged strong hand the Uk had in negotiations to revealing quite the opposite; Trump is too preoccupied with re-election and China and president Xi consider the Uk being a few consonants short of profanity. The EU have had quite enough of brilliant Bo Johnson and his inexperienced negotiators. Combine this with the all encompassing effect of Covid19 and the great plans that seemed oh so probable, now appear fantastically out of step and time and wholly unlikely/impossible. His govt of idealogues have proven incapable of intelligent action and devoid of experience, as neither were requirement for office. So Sterling is paying for this. The Footsie is paying for this. Eventually the taxpayer will pay for it all. Not to forget the ballooning national debt. A really, really big balloon. Well the electorate certainly is getting what it voted for in the recent landslide election. Getting Brexit done quickly and at any cost. Or getting done by Brexit? Schadenfreude.
  12. Great points there Davy. It looks like stops are your big problem. Price movement is rapid both up and down and having faith definitely helps. Trading out of good positions when it swings negative and triggering a stop loss is a common occurrence. Have you tried setting stops with a - 1%, -2%, -3% or even -5% swing. I concur that losses would be larger, but it also gives opportunity for swings to gain in your favour by similar margins. setting a stop with too much caution can create losses where it is not necessary. Bear in mind bots hoover up small price swings automatically and a very limited stop is bread and butter for said bots. Also you allow for giant trades which alter the price to be absorbed before popping stops. I am predominantly an oil and gasoline trader and have long stops and defined limits often smaller than the stops because when big hedge traders drop massive sells I do not get caught out in the wash and when the price swings back in my favour I collect (often after a frantic few minutes/hours/ sometimes days). Have also been trading Dow exchange futures which is a completely different animal and does not behave according to fundamentals, it would appear to be manipulated and influenced through stimulus and an army of desk jockeys with nothing better to do and no interest on their savings, who cannot short a market as easily a we can, so feel they have to buy to survive. The Dow also swings like a trapeze artist on steroids. Have been running uphill with that and figure to exit when final hedge pops....it's taking its time. If you believe the trade you have made is correct and have done sufficient due diligence I have found self belief will get one through times of high anxiety. The price is just the price, it is what it is, placing subjective value on winning or losing is difficult to avoid but a philosophical attitude can get one through and keep one in the green. One's own emotions and panic are the real enemy. I wish you good luck and keep your nerve. Have a great weekend.
  13. I suggest the Dow may have made a crest@27150. It could go higher, but more likely a retreat to saner levels is my position. Sell on the peaks, buy on the dips n'est pas?
  14. Forgive me, sarcasm is the lowest form of wit. Battle is surely not over. Markets simply overreact. In the case of the Dow massively.
  15. Talk about exuberance. (Oft used word like unprecedented). Dow is steaming up to 27000 and heading north. The battle with Covid is over then. It is beaten and normal service will resume directly. Next stop all time high? Forget about the bad news. It's only going to get better and better and everything is going to turn out rosy. Lovely jubbly. Moderna's results are encouraging, it is true, but not categoric, peer reviewed or tested on more than 48 fit test subjects. Otherwise, the situation remains the same. One supposes that if one were to no longer test, then the virus will simply disappear, as no one would have it because no one has been tested for it. Brilliant logic and an especially good recipe for rampant, uncontrolled, unmonitored communal spread. What's a few hundred thousand deaths of vulnerable people matter anyway? It's the bottom line that counts, surely? Then there is the matter unemployment and the 30 million still receiving unemployment cheques (soon to be stopped). They will all be instantly be re-employed, of course. As for the debts, it's only debt and we can always print more money to pay for and buy more debt. Those in arrears can have their debt purchased by repo's and start again, unless it's lots of debt, then we'll bail 'em out. Fantastic. Win win on the money-go-round. Obviously, pre Covid, say Feb 2020, assets and equities were hugely under-priced. Tech is still massively under-valued. Isn't it? Tesla may even make a profit proving its market cap @$220 billion. Cheap at the price! We have won the battle with Covid, it is done and won and a big V for victory for the markets. As you can tell it is day 6 of my not drinking and I am hallucinating, cannot tell fact from desire and am selectively, blind, deaf and have a factual reality by-pass. It would appear I am not alone. One thing to note, it sure is interesting. Defiantly not a bubble waiting to pop. Absolutely not a bubble. Exuberance warranted. Must be time for a trade war with China then.
  16. I like your interpretation of future possibilities. I don't think the Dow will recover to post crash highs anytime soon, maybe 2022. You have drawn a whipsaw. Not sure it will whipsaw quite as much but may trend negative to current highs for sometime yet. Sideways down. Bear in mind there is no shortage of money supply (markets are awash with it) enough to stem the tide for the meantime. Devaluation of the USD$ may be a result and with it the desired increase (small) in inflation which will help with the deficit. Danger being stagflation and a moribund economy (eg. UK). In fact, re UK economy combination event of Covid and hard Brexit will almost certainly kipper UK GDP for years to come and cost the UK economy trillions to little or no measurable benefit (barring flag waving rights). Naturally, the unfortunate taxpayer will foot the bill again.
  17. Read an interesting article on Yahoo finance which showed the majority of gains in the Nasdaq is down to the big 6 tech firms and without them there would have been no gain in the Nasdaq since 2016 and the majority of movement is down to the price of 6 companies. It would appear, in the search for dividend and profit everyone has opted to buy Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Netflix, as a herd reaction. No one has stopped to question whether they are over-bought at all, or if they may have questioned that premise, the thought would have been quickly cast asunder in the wake of evidence to the contrary (prices of the big 6 only bulldozing up). This may have lead to a false narrative, where we may consider everything is rosy in the garden of equities and everything will all be alright soon, as long as the big 6 keep on growing, even if much other evidence suggests the contrary. Which it is. From employment to housing arrears, from relationships with allies and perceived foes to actual communal transmission of Covid 19. From stratospheric Fed and govt debt to trade imbalance, from irrational exuberance to actually facing reality now. Instead of relentless optimism, relentless realism. It would appear we are in for another week of exuberance. The sun is shining, people are out enjoying themselves and one could be forgiven for thinking the crisis is over and we can all go back to doing exactly what we were doing before this inconvenience struck. Reassessment can be inconvenient too. No one likes to be wrong, (though we often are). Least of all the Potus, who's principle motivation may not be the well being and good health of his people, more the well being of the economy, more specifically the price of equity. He encourages more exuberance even when evidence may suggest otherwise. It is earnings season for equities, the reports, many of which would make grim reading in more sober times, will be ignored for even the merest hint that the future will be brighter or it wont get any worse, from a reaction to Remdesivir (which appears to improve more than it harms, improves 9 harms 3...a litigation lawyers dream) to any glimmer of positive data. Then one looks at the price of Tesla and realise the equity markets really have gone potty. Look at Tesla's numbers and its price makes no sense at all. Herd irrational exuberance in a nutshell. VW and Toyota p/e far less than 10, now look at Tesla and you know its share price is on steroids and anything else the doctor will prescribe. I recently drove to the New Forest to visit a good friend. It is normally a patience sapping experience, but left on Friday 7 pm and arrived at 9;10 pm in record breaking totally unbelievable 2 hours 10 minutes. In July. Normally, it takes at least 3 hours. Roads are still quiet. Which leads me to question again the premise of a "V" shaped recovery and consider whether those that suggested a "V" shaped recovery actually have very poor hand writing and their version of a V more closely resembles a flattish tick or even a very sloppy W. I digress, the point being there has to come a time when the US has to take off its rose tinted glasses and see the reality of Now for what it is, rather than wishing it all away for a brighter tomorrow. Might not happen this week as equities push higher but you can't escape it forever. Can you?
  18. It would appear cooperation and mutual benefit are also expedient in the neo Covid world😃 For how long is open to debate...
  19. Brent has been in a protracted battle since Covid 19 to regain it's 2019 price-point of $55-$65. To do this producers have had to put aside competitive animosity and fundamental political differences for the greater/ their own good. To a great extent this has worked and producers have managed to agree to cut supply in order to regain margins. All well and good. Naturally, there are going to be rocks in the road to this continued cooperation. One such obstacle is Libya. Another is Venezuela. They are currently unable to produce oil as they are being hampered by inconvenient sanctions (Venezuela) and a nasty little civil war (Libya). However, it is looking more and more likely that Libya will once more become a global supplier in the not too distant future. Libya has lots of oil, it is the largest producer and has the largest proven reserves of oil in Africa and is on the point of reopening the taps. Global supply is almost balanced with demand, I wonder how OPEC+ members feel about the return of Libya into their club of bonhomie? Will they be overjoyed to once more compete with a cash strapped Libya and their gazillions of barrels of oil? The risks are obvious. The Opec+ love in could disassemble and with it the stability in oil price. Covid 19 could return in the fall before it's exit stage left come 2021. A combination event is within reasonable feasibility. Plus, the world economy will almost certainly be in contraction until 2021 heading off greater demand at the pass. It is therefore my humble opinion that oil (Brent) shall not rise inexorably, but trade within a range of $38.5-$47.5 until mid 2021. That's my bias, for what it's worth.
  20. Looks like both are over valued. Personally don't rate Tesla as highly as others do. But, when asking the question, " Do you think this company will still be doing business in ten years?" ", my answer is "yes both Tesla and Amazon will still be around come 2030". Though if Amazon hives off AWS then maybe not. As for Tesla, if there were legislation requiring personal vehicles to be electric then it's on to winner. If not then, Toyota are a better company, even if they are old tech legacy. Tesla's share price is built on speculation, not profits. Amazon without AWS is a profitless leviathan. The FANGS will also have to face a vexing taxation reckoning as their practise of profit allocation (ok profit laundering) is unfair and the EU and even the UK will tax them fairly according to profits generated at source location. They will not like that much, even if it is the right thing to do. They are both over priced. However, as compared to the Chinese stocks (P/E 25-35x) they are cheap (which they are not). It could be countered something is worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it, depending on how much they want or need it, or consider it's value may increase over time, even if they are paying tomorrows/next months/next years prices today. In short, well done to those who are profiting from shrewd market timing, especially with Amazon and Tesla, even if they are both over-bought.
  21. Unemployment numbers are eagerly awaited. They normally tell us the state of the economy and should indicate the price of equities. In a normal world that is. This is hardly normal, or new normal is on steroids, myopic and heady with fast cash. It is baffling. Even with good numbers from the US department of Labour, it is still likely to read ongoing claims of approximately 20 million. A virus as virulent as ever, with only suggestions of a vaccine (available Dec2020 earliest). A president concerned primarily with continuing his power and not much interested in the "foreign" virus, which now is boring him. Naturally, the markets have taken this as another massive positive and are buying like it's 2019 all over again. Are the majority just suckers? Obviously P/E ratios are for has-been nay-sayers, as is the notion of value. Even as Facebook is boycotted, hurting ad revenues, its price is still on an upward trend. Google is also taking a hit to its ad revenue, yet the same can be said (the only way is up). I have been astounded repeatedly by the Dow's irrational resilience. Unlike Oil, which has reacted pretty much as it should and is priced fairly (ok, plus or minus) and that is despite Saudi and Russia being total numb skulls in March. Opec+ has members that dislike each other intensely and would not wee on each other even if they were on fire, but have managed to come together for their common good. The result is supply and oil price is moving with demand. (One has to question Saudi insistence on heavy premiums to Asia, and conclude Saudi royals oil ministers are not business people and treat Oil as political, as they sure don't understand the nature of good business and are doubtless surprised when they are the last person anyone wanting oil calls, but I digress). Oil seems to be fairly priced according to market value. Equities are not. Equities are still in lalalalala land. There was a time when there was a symmetry to the price of oil and the value of equity (25% of all equity is oil ) . That correlation has ceased to have relevance in the present paradigm. In a normal world, equity would be around 25% down from its highs, roughly equivalent to the oil price being 25% down, which is roughly equivalent to the total level of economic activity being down. But not today. Today those correlations do not work. Because the Time factor has been ignored where equity is concerned. Because the Fed has flooded the markets with liquidity and related stimulus. Where Einstein maintained time being relative, it would appear equity is also relative and travelling at considerably different speeds to the rest of the actual economy. Or is that just those trading equity? Dow does not like down. But sometimes you have to come down, don't you? It's not called a correction for nothing.
  22. Ever had one of those days when it was better to stay in bed? When everything one touches turns brown and squidgy? Oil is readjusting and having a moment of clarity and the price is falling, currently 7.7% off it's Monday Am high. Is this simply profit taking or is it Hedge Funds simply cashing in their considerable chips and seeing what happens next? Result is market is quietly falling. This has woken a few to the excesses of market exuberance in other markets and prompted more cashing in. Naturally this morning (very early) I managed to make a double whammy of errors of judgement. Firstly I bought when I should of sold (self inflicted error due to mis-click), secondly I sold when I should of held (common mistake). Bye bye last weeks profit. Despite reading the market and mostly understanding it, I still managed to conspire to self sabotage. Therefore, some days, it's better to stay in bed, side step the day, go for a walk, feed fish, relax. Anything but try and make more money. Just putting it out there.
  23. Agree with Kodiak, Elle and Dmedin... this is a bubble. A really, really, big bubble and the solution seems to be: patch it and keep on inflating! Oil price is being pushed up by the same bubble makers, would not take much for the asset to reset according to actual demand as opposed to inferred demand. There is a whole lot (like really lots and lots and lots) of stored oil and distillates out there. The anticipated return of air travel has failed to materialise and is very unlikely to until mid 2021 (barring the short sweet summer hiatus). That's 17% of normal oil demand right there. Not to mention travel to and from airports. Thereby suggesting where the price is ($42.95), is where it approximately should be, though <$38.50 would be a more accurate current representation, methinks. Also, agree the way to go is follow the trends and get in and out quickly. Don't be greedy and don't be afraid to take a loss from time to time, when necessary.
  24. Problems? What problems? No problems. Indices don't lie, do they. Recession? What recession? Greatest comeback in history? Evolution without the revolution and don't worry about the fundamentals, it's the Fund-a-Mentals that power this recovery. Not professing to be super intelligent, am still struggling to deal with the irational exuberance exhibited by the equity indices around the world. From the perspective of a humble Crude Oil day trader (Brent), none of it makes any real sense. It's as if logic has been bypassed for a carefree attitude " it'll be alright and if it wont the Fed will pay for it" which seems to underscore market movements over the last 2 months. With Oil it has been simple, no demand= lower price (Russo/Saudi pishing contest excepted, which served to lower prices more). Where Oil is approaching an inflection point at $50 for Brent (probably less), it would appear equities passed that point in April and see no end to the bull run, new all time highs? Yes please? What about fundamentals? P/E ratio's? Debt? It appears questions like that are about as welcome as a potent **** in a lift. It's all ok as the Fed will pay, by giving out free money or less than zero rate loans without the necessary caveat of actually paying it back. Not to mention buying as many junk bunds as the market can issue. Grrreat! So why then all the fuss in the first place? Remember Covid 19? Very contagious virus, more deaths than Malaria or any US war since 1942-45? Obviously, that is not important anymore as the recovery is on, the economy recovered and there will be a successfull working vaccine by September, wont there? So definitely nothing to worry about or duly concern anyone. Better forget about it? Stop being a party pooper! Enough of the negative vibes? As for the UK, why all the concern about Brexit? I mean the BoE will pay for it, just like the Fed. Wont it? Europe will cave in to Boris's demands as it must, wont it? It surely will not damage the UK economy if there were no deal, now would there? Again, I am being a party pooper and shining the light of tricky questions in places it certainly is not welcome. So where is all this irrational exuberance coming from? Frankly, I feel I have missed out. Still when hard numbers and data actually appear and the data can be analysed properly in the cold light of day maybe things will be different. As it is, the markets are sure there will be no second wave of infections and if there is, it is nothing to be concerned about. No country is manipulating the death rate to suit it's political leaders, that much is also true, surely. All nations are prepared for a resurgence in the R rate. It is nothing to worry about. Maybe I should put my head back in the sand and pretend it is all fine and rosey and just the same as last year, nay, better than last year. Just look at the indices, it must be.
  25. Provided they don't completely hash it up, Brexit means Sterling will appreciate. Probably. The caveat being if it is not a hard Brexit with it's concomitant tariffs and hazards. A hard Brexit (which is bad for almost everyone) would lead Sterling to devalue some more, sub $1.20 and Euro1.05. If not lower. With a decent deal that is positive for all parties then Sterling may rise to $1.50+ and Euro 1.30+ . That's my position. However, our politicians and political advisors are best it seems at serving themselves and not so interested in serving the greater good (one rule for them,one rule for us, like Demonic Cummings for example). Therefore, what is obviously a good thing (a good deal) may easily be compromised by our political elite (again) as opposed compromising for the benefit of the majority. If one were to compare our economic state with other nations and blocs then Sterling is as knackered as any of the competition. Will only be more knackered if we make a bad deal (no deal) the world knows it and will pan our currency with prejudice if we fail to do so. (Make money while seeing your competitor fail) Double bonus if you are not British. The negotiations are of paramount importance and must not be pucked up.
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