786Trader

The era of cheap energy is not around the corner. The implications of a price cap on Russian Oil are for higher energy prices rather than lower. Putin already has to sell at a discount to attract buyers. Gas prices in Europe can only remain elevated as supplies from Russia are limited, both by sanctions and the incapacity of Nord Stream 1 and 2. A lack of adequate infrastructure and capacity of adequate CNG terminals also squeezes supply. US gas is still more than half the price of spot EU. Putin was poorly advised indeed and massively miscalculated regards his fool's errand in Ukraine. New world orders will not cover old world profits, not for many, many moons (if ever). However, energy prices will likely remain elevated beyond the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. Economic warfare will continue to cost. Putin will not be able to escape the bill for the wholesale destruction of Ukraine, not to mention the destruction of trust with his erstwhile European customers. He can probably kiss goodbye to all of those foreign capital reserves, which in all likelihood will become Ukraine's. This naturally benefits US gas suppliers, Qatar, Norway and any other exporter of non-Russian energy. Oil is still likely in a bullish cycle, bad news for inflation, which is likely to remain persistently high. The target of 2% is most likely years away, mid 2024 at the earliest, despite the Fed and BoE's preference for a mild recession. This inflation is different, as it is not demand based but rather supply based. Central banks have less room to manoeuvre with supply-side inflation, unless they go gung-ho-Alan-Greenspan style into a 1980's type of recession, which is politically a bad move in the short term and particularly painful for those with considerable household debt (most of the population). More likely this recent bout of inflation may well prove obstinate and sticky at 5% as the economic costs are settled from Covid and Ukraine. The plus side being savers actually are paid reasonable interest for depositing their savings in a bank. Conversely, all those individuals and businesses that are servicing debt will find their costs rise. Many with excessive leverage will go bust. Banks should do well in 2023. Irony being, despite a surfeit of Gas and Oil, prices are likely to rise into '23 as this cycle plays out, as the supply chain is squeezed through insatiable demand. New World Orders are unlikely to materialise for Lootin Putin and his cronies and China will extract ever larger discounts for their tacit support. Gas flows will have nowhere to go. When trying to establish a new order, autocrats around the world (Putin and Xi) would be best advised to have all of their ducks in a row before declaring economic and real war on a "decadent" west and their allies. As plans rarely go to plan. Meantime, we all suffer the consequences of folly, famine and pestilence induced not by the omnipotent one, just ones who are convince they are.

@ SKyrocket.. Indeed, it would appear market function precludes considerable prior and ongoing manipulation by interests less concerned with public well being and more concerned with self enrichment. Not conspiracy, simply accurate recognition of the nature of the beast. Gasoline market is symptomatic of the frenzy for Fomo, where good sense, reason and probity are sacrificed at the altar of the great God of Profit (and not forgetting shareholder value). As greed it seems, cannot last the course and is myopic and avaricious to boot. But that's the system we have, it is the human condition that needs an upgrade, as our economic systems only mirror the current human condition, which quite obviously needs quite a lot of work to be fit for purpose! As it is gasoline is heading back to the more established relationship it has with WTI and should land at around 31600 =/- 1500...maybe higher.....but the Fomo seems to have eased as the market enters a more risk off state and Gasoline is no longer the only game in town. Plus sleepy Joe is selling a million barrels a day......which should come as some relief to Joe and Joleen Public....

If there's one thing more frustrating than the end of a great illusion, it's a bubble being popped...sleepy Joe Biden and his darn strategic petroleum release ruins a good thing for all concerned...all being loosely termed as those on the inside (producers, refiners, traders, hedge fund money managers), Joe/Joleen public on the outside were the ones being comprehensively abused through record prices at the pumps. It is doubly frustrating as there is so much and many worthy of blame for these circumstances:- Putin and his war (special military operation?), Covid unpreparedness, sleepy Joe Biden and those darn lefty lunatic democrats. It's not like economic recovery was unexpected and with it concomitant energy use, or even the looming spectre of war in Ukraine (since 2021) and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, on which Europe was so dependent. Never entered calculations. However, responsibility to shareholders is an over riding factor regardless of market requirements, even if it requires squeezing your customers dry and exacerbating inflation. Shareholder value is paramount. WTI may well be almost at parity with Brent, which is most rare. But the real money and record margin is in refining. How to double your money at 90% capacity? Work a crisis. Create a shortage. A dearth of diesel apparently. Even if there are lakes of it in Canada, an already existing pipeline away. Europe is exporting Gasoline to New York to get some of those mega bucks. Russia is still exporting 66% of it's Oil and distillates at hefty discount to spot. Gas is exempt from sanctions in Europe. This inconvenient knowledge detracts from the melt up of Gasoline...to the moon...May gasoline futures market is trading 1000 points higher than spot( again), last day of April futures trading the price melted up 1500 points and settled 700 points above spot! Obviously no arbitrage opportunities there, just an orgasmic price love in for those involved. They are fixing to do it again this month, except sleepy Joe and his darned release of strategic reserves getting in the way, plus price destruction from high prices and low volumes leading to higher stocks of WTI and Gasoline drawdown being less than hoped for. Who would have thought? Chicago CBOB had realised the game and were refusing to play and have been consistently trading at 2300 point +/- discount throughout. Obviously, no one in forward planning at Big Oil HQ, or commodity trading houses, or Hedge fund money managers thought of any of these scenarios and were simply looking after Joe and Joleen Public and saving them from energy price shocks,(while making reasonable profits) as opposed to exploiting the situation for record profits and bonuses and then blame Putin the **** (for he has become one) or sleepy Joe Biden and his incompetent lunatic leftish public servants. There is no shortage of oil, China has lots of it when it returns to work next year, America has lots of it, Europe has somehow manged to source enough of it. There are reserves a plenty and barring a nuclear war Russia will continue to export a sh*t ton of it at a discount. The illusion of Oil and gasoline shortage is just that; an illusion. And darn sleepy Joe Biden is doing his utmost to pop it. What a donk.

Am of a slightly different position..... EU may not ban Russian Oil imports, unanimous decisions unlikely especially from Orban's Putin friendly Hungary. Opec may reluctantly increase supply as the higher the prices the more they will be seen as profiteers profiting on the back of Ukraine suffering and indirectly supporting Putin. (never good to back a loser with such high stakes) They may realise Russia's hands are tied as they are unable to wield the same kind of influence as before the "special military operation" which is actually a full blown war that Russia is not winning. Putin's influence has diminished and may never recover to the same level within OPEC+. Certainly not with sanctions and brutal **** war. China is very unlikely to change its zero Covid policy. Price may still rise if the war is not over by Autumn... There is an unlikely theory/rumour circulating Putin may declare war on Nato on "Victory" day May 9th. In said scenario Oil and gasoline may double. If not, it is fair to expect a continued break down in the price of WTI and Brent. It is fair to say electric and hybrid vehicles have suddenly become more viable for environmental and political reasons and will continue to be a preferred option in the future.

Interesting times indeed for the price of Gasoline...after last Thursdays short squeeze in the May contract, the fun and games and general shenanigans continue unabated. The price of Gasoline is disappearing high into the ether. But why is that? Very good question, as the price of Brent and WTI have not blown beyond their March highs or even close to it. Indeed WTI is barely $105 ....It would appear there are those with ulterior motives where the price of Gasoline is concerned, as the usual correlation with the price of Oil has gone the way of a great deal of Russian tanks in Ukraine...(blown up). Why would there be price manipulation in the New York contracts of gasoline? Or prior to that Oil? Political capital? Old fashioned economic warfare? For example: the Nymex RB01 futures gasoline contract usually moves in tandem to the price of WTI, unusually this is not the case. The correlation has been hiked by 20%+. Is there a deficit of Gasoline? Well no, not as compared to the deficit in long term Oil reserves or Distillates and WTI. There is a small deficit of aprox 4 million barrels. Not enough to prompt the current squeeze in price. Is the price reflected in the Chicago exchange? Again no, Chicago are buying Gasoline at a 23 cent discount to benchmark. It would appear this squeeze is coming from New York. Are refineries having problems? Again to the negative. Refineries are running and making high margins on large volumes. So for why this considerable squeeze? Not supply, not stocks, no shortage, so why is the price headed to the moooon? It would appear Mr and Mrs and even Miss America and Global citizens elsewhere are being squeezed for cash for political and financial motives. This is not market efficiencies in action, there is something more. Gasoline is over $3.50....it's March high was a very brief $3.85 before crashing down when WTI reached $130....currently WTI is $103.87 and Gasoline is $3.50.....all is not well in the state of Denmark it seems...or even spot and futures contracts on NYMEX... We have seen short squeezes before, made famous by Gamestop.....there appears to be one happening now with Gasoline. Gamestop was a short squeeze instigated by millennials keen to stick it to the "man", Gasoline short squeeze is being instigated by a completely different cast of bad actors.

What a time it is to be a commodity trader.....from Wheat to Gold to Palladium to Oil Gas and Gasoline....melt up is understatement indeed. Sanctions price busters....In normal circumstances oil should have just about touched $100 through supply constraints and demand increase. Tuesday, Brent touched $119! This has made for some pretty frantic and stellar gains and loses. ( I have shorted WTI @$105 and gasoline @30000 ....which seemed reasonable but not in these wholly unreasonable times) Wheat price is growing faster than bamboo and commodity inflation is rampant. What goes up....indeed, however, we live in interesting times and all norms have been jettisoned in favour of psychotic lunacy on most fronts...it's the new trend......Russia becoming a new North Korea both internally and externally and Ukraine turning to rubble and ruin(much like the rouble.. trouble, rubble and ruin) Equity on the other hand is not fairing so well in the storm of Vladimir Vladimirovich's making.....he is not solely to blame mind, just mostly and his actions since Presidents day have been nothing short of horrifying. He is also showing no sign of abating in his mission to crush Ukraine and redraw the map of Europe ..motivation for which suggests murderous zeal, delusional paranoia and kleptomania....he invades (military operates) and the price of wheat, gas and oil gain 20% in a week, which is good for him personally, not so great for anyone else. Re-drawing the borders would naturally give him access and ownership of the trillions of cubic meters of Ukrainian gas under the black sea and rid him of the pesky transit fees he has to pay Ukraine currently. Folk at home, blissfully unaware of his murderous misdeeds, miscalculation and mania sate him once more a hero in liberating some Russian speaking brothers from genocide (!!??????) Western decadence and neo nazis(!!??) and securing new territory as a buffer from Western influence. Not to mention the profits from Gas, Oil, Wheat, Fertiliser, Palladium, Titanium, -kaa-ching$$$$ for him..... So a little economic pain in the form of 20% interest rates, limited access to foreign currency (yuan excepted), inflation and a near worthless currency are prices worth paying as he is doing it all for the benefit of mother/father Russia. Not to mention the casualties....heroes all....we wont mention the Russian stock market that is currently in hibernation, waiting for spring and or peace or Putin's sanity to to return. Don't hold your breath on that. Where does that leave the humble trader? Buying commodities, shorting equities, reading charts and watching the news for any sign of a stop to the madness, for it is madness. China and Xi must be very slightly perturbed as they observe their "bosom" buddy and limitless friend and realise they have got into bed with a total psychopath and must have come to some small realisation that invading another country wont work if they (the citizens) object to it wholesale, as Taiwan would, for example. Plus, sanctions and world condemnation are not really palatable either. Suppose Put-him-in-the-bin Putin will get used to being the junior partner of Xi in the future new world order of their dreams. He likes being junior and is sooo trustworthy... So fellow traders, Oil/commodities are heading higher as no one will buy Russian Oil except China, Somalia and Zimbabwe (@ a 20% discount) Until there is peace again volatility is a friend and bed fellow. So stay well and enjoy every moment of life. Who knows what the future will bring?

Happy New year to all.. Here area few reckonings for 22.....As an Oil and Gasoline trader (mostly), lets start with that: 2021 was a good year for oil and Gasoline and Gas for that matter...prices doubled in the year (Oil) with two 20%+ corrections in August and November. Currently prices are rising again and heading for $80 for WTI. Opec is due to increase supply, though this is not guaranteed as some members will be unable to fulfil their quotas, leading to demand outstripping supply in Q1 and some of Q2. All this despite air travel not returning to previous norms worldwide. Supply side constraints also will exacerbate the price volatility as the majors who need to invest heavily to increase supply will instead allocate same funds to shareholder dividend and buyback. The investors will win out on this occasion. The public will not. the Green economy will come at a cost. I expect to see $100 + WTI this year, probably twice (Q1, Q4). If there are folk expecting things to go back to normal, I suspect there being a slim to no chance of that. We are in a new paradigm people. Things are different and still changing. Adapt or perish. The Equities will probably continue to break new ground until the music stops somewhere end of Q1 and we have a real correction of 15-20%. Expect prices to rise again subsequent. Also expect more scrutiny of the Faang stocks. No bad thing. It is happening in China and will happen here. Microsoft may get away with it, Meta and Google wont. Again, no bad thing. Crypto had a break out year as more awareness of new tech possibilities spread. There is too much good and potential in Crypto and web 3 apps for it to be ignored. It will, however be regulated. Which is a good thing generally, but only if the regulators actually understand that which they are trying to regulate. Which they don't. There is a good deal of sabre rattling globally, more so than in the recent past and I expect Defence equities to do well and the new work life balance may prompt more of us to invest in smarter running/ exercise wear, come summer. The situation in the US may prove to be at once entertaining and terrifying, as the increasingly divergent parties prepare for the Mid term elections. The Republicans are expecting to do well and take control of one or both houses. I am not convinced of this on account of the elephant in the room that is the Donut Trump. The fact is some folk love him, but more folk are actively repelled by him, as the election proved. All Biden and the Democrats have to do, is appear reasonable and moderate and they will win seats enough to stay in power, which will really annoy and frustrate the Republicans even more than they are already. If the Donald is visible and actively campaigning for the Elephants, which he has promised to do, then I suggest he will hand the Dems victory through motivating those opposed to him to get out and vote. He wont see it that way. I may be in the minority on this, but so be it. I expect inflation to continue its upward trajectory well into Q2 and probably the whole year. I also expect the Fed and other central banks will remain as accommodative as possible for as long as possible, which will lead to the continued stagflation we are experiencing now. Raising rates and tightening money supply is a double edged sword and could easily be the catalyst to markets heavily correcting end Q1. That and the threat of war/civil war. Suspect it may be a year of very wet spring and long hot dry summer.....in short we are still on the rollercoaster so take pleasure and profits where you are able, stay well and healthy and remember money is by no means everything, useful yes, but no panacea. Good luck traders.

Another example of the necessity of animal experiments furthered by the inestimable Tony Baloney Fauci. Bats in Wuhan. Beagles in Tunisia. remember it's for our own good. Even if a few animals are sacrificed on the altar of medical research. It's for your own good and if you know what's good for you, you would be reminded to stop asking questions and doing any research, even if you are a qualified analyst. Don't mess with the narrative...

Indeed, were one to suspect any ulterior or malign motives where NIH and CDC are concerned is akin to conspiracy. Why would they need to research long-term immunity when the vaccines are working so effectively and big pharma have been so timely and heroic in their endeavours? Simply questioning the CDC, NIH and soon to be canonised Fauci, regarding this should also be forbidden. Ant- vaxer positions should be discounted and thoroughly discredited, even if some of them have been vaccinated, aren't anti vax and are asking reasonable questions. Remember, curiosity killed the cat, just as surely as you have a 15% chance of hospitalisation (vaccinated or not) and less than a 2% chance of CV19 killing you....or higher if you have not been vaccinate (depending on age , fitness and medical comorbidity).. remember any side effects, like inflation and life itself, are only transient...believe everything you are told, it's for your own good.

Anyone noticed Tesla price action of late? It's almost singlehandedly keeping the Nasdaq in the green. I had shorted it, but it had become too painful so took a haircut and called it quits and lesson learned. Tesla is the meme stock of meme stocks, where fundamentals no longer apply. According to mElon Teslatics everyone will be driving a Tesla and all other car companies are destined for recycling. It justifies its astonishing p/e 100x + metric with vague, fantastical projections of future profits, difficult to realise. Currently Tesla trades with a through the roof RSI of, wait for it, 90.7 a jaw dropping CCI of 257.5 and a 20 point gap between MACD and signal, the stochastics are equally stratospheric at 90... It's the sort of TA most crypto currencies could only dream of. Frankly, I see the most valuable part of Tesla as the 46 666 BTC they own. Where, quite the other $995 billion of value comes from is anyone's guess. Yes, it's true they are profitable, but right now so is the whole sector. Yes, there is a maniacal, loyal band of fundamentalist mElon lovers seeing him as a deified tech super spirit embodying all that is good and right in technology. Personally, I like him, like his ideas, but find the price of Tesla and Teslas to be somewhat in the range of offensively excessive. Would far rather own SpaceX shares truth be told. I digress, The technicals of Tesla all point to it reaching it's Zenith, it's about as far up the mountain as is unreasonably reasonable atm. But hey, what do I know? I am a simple , unfashionable Oil and Gasoline trader, my positions on which have not changed. Am still long on Oil and Gas and energy as a whole, going into 22 with a price target of $110-$120+ for Brent by end of 22, possibly higher. Expect to see $100 within 6 months, in all likelihood sooner. If you have been riding the Tesla wave, well done, but do you really justify that price? I struggle and fail too. But have learned not to mess with the Meme.

Great post... Inflation is less transient than central bankers hope. The current result is transient (they hope) stagflation. Reflationary trends are more likely than not, though the general market correction that is being deferred once more, is likely over due come Q1 22....more likely before. As for your clever strategy, respect. As a simple Oil and gas trader I judge different metrics (like actual physical supply, storage and expected and real demand) for example. Plus order flow is useful. Have a great day trading all. Finally getting round to booking some holiday time that's not in the UK...which is a good sign..

So it is, when we look to the rising of the sun and the great emergent market of the East, we cannot help notice the ever increasing influence of the party in all elements of life, be it business or pleasure. It's one big party and aren't they having a good time? Naturally, it's for the benefit of the party, sorry, people. One notes the legislation in finance, where the Zhejiang Tourism Investment group will have the good fortune to be partners in the new joint venture, born from the break up of Ant finance and it's jewel Alipay. Giving the party more access to every facet of peoples lives , including your credit score and real time financial records. They (the people and party) must be most grateful. As must be all the tech companies for the continued rigorous oversite. The same might not be said for Evergrande, or Soho who are facing rather less envious futures as their creditors circle and bankruptcy looms large and inevitable. The state may let them fail to a point, then bail them out, as contagion is a distinct possibility, admonish the greedy speculators and distribute the remaining assets to loyal apparatchiks. The similar statements regarding consolidation in the EV market may equally send chills down the spines of the executives of Nio, Xpeng and BYD. Expect approved mergers in the near future perhaps? Some of this intervention is welcome for consumer protection, some is more overt market control for other, less palatable reasons. Meanwhile, around the world a sense of introverted navel examination prevails. The US no longer looking outward but in and having what could be termed as an identity crisis. I wont mention the UK as we are still getting over 2016 and have crisis enough keeping milk on supermarket shelves. The world seems a disjointed and disconnected place despite the wealth of technological innovation, our worlds become smaller and our outlooks more limited. So much so, we almost discount the continued appreciation of the price of everything, as it, like life is merely transient. We fail to notice, perhaps the continued equity bubble that balloons without correction, heading it seems to the moon. The mElon apostles continue to pray at the alter of Tesla despite it's lack of real profits (they prefer prophet to profits). We ignore CV19 and just take it for granted, even if it has a propensity to vary and mutate past the vaccine wall. We continue to invite Facebook and social media into every aspect of our lives. So it maybe our horizons shrink and with it our perspectives. Lets hope not our awareness too. Don't forget to hedge where appropriate and take profit. Have been doing a good deal of meditation on the subjects of inflation, commodities, crypto and equity. Markets and people don't like change. But like evolution it's a case of adapt or become a fossil. There upon to eventually become fossil fuel...(sorry had to get an oil joke in there somewhere)

It would appear the vaccines are not quite what they were touted to be...according to Isrealnationalnews.com, "among seriously ill patients 35% are not vaccinated, 61% are an 3% have received one dose of the Pfizer vaccine. The number of seriously ill patients declined Wednesday to 139 from 140 a day earlier, while the number of fully vaccinated patients in serious condition inched upwards from 240 to 243. The number of partially vaccinated patients held steady at 10". Pfizer not that effective then against Delta variant....

WTI and gasoline have been heavily correcting this month. Since 31/07 til now, WTI crude has lost 16%, gasoline 15%, heading toward a possible 19-20% retracement. It has dropped past the 200 day MA and the RSI is less than 28. All this on falling inventories of crude. Demand has reduced slightly, but not as significantly as the price betrays. So why the large fall? Seasonal shift in blends is a part reflection in the price of gasoline, shifts in confidence in all markets regards efficacy of vaccines in front of exposure to new Delta variant and its effect on future demand, also a factor, big players (China and India) drawing down reserves instead of restocking at higher prices, also a factor. Or is it simply the market correcting itself ahead of the change in season and in tandem with equities? Are hedge funds becoming reticent regards future growth? Is the patched balloon that is the equity market sinking? Has Jerome's talk of taper given markets the willies? Oil stocks are reducing, not expanding, demand is remaining steady as movement metrics return to previous norms. Cushing's levels are comparatively low. Shale producers are back to April 2020 levels of production. Opec + is holding supply steady. Oil is in a new bull market since bottoming out April 2020 and this would be the second significant correction subsequent to those lows. As the worlds economies trend towards eventual, belated carbon neutrality, the addiction to the black stuff is hard to quell. Big oil, seeing this as a protracted last hurrah, is certain to try to extract as much value as possible until that end is reached and we only use oil for important stuff like advanced plastics and the price of oil is $500 a barrel. Which is what it should be, as it's a truly remarkable commodity and shouldn't be utilised for mundane uses, such as burning it for locomotion or single use plastic packaging. Which is pretty dumb, when one thinks about it. I digress, My position is; Oil is falling, it will rise again. Not financial advice. Happy, profitable trading all..

Suspect corrections when they come will be in the order of 10-20%. We may have 2 such corrections by the end of the year. Suspect one is due around now. Chart action suggests overbought for equity and commodities are correcting as I write. Recovery is also highly likely. Re Oil, correction will not be long lasting. May I suggest the price of energy will remain high for the foreseeable future (return of $100-125 barrell ?). As will the spectre of inflation, as contrary to the esteemed Jerome P, I maintain inflation is more than "transitory", more a feature of the next few years. Pretty optimistic predictions for S&P 500 there, as there is an inevitability of a significant correction of more than 34-55% by 2025-26. However, am prepared to work with a guide that suggests equity will relentlessly rise for the next Gann cycle.

Folk will continue to believe what they want to believe. A nice, friendly, wholesome narrative is preferable to one which questions whether the whole thing has been a major error of judgement. Emperor and new clothes scenario. Yes my wife is not the only one having trouble with AZ, thousands of others are (check out twitter and FB (though FB groups regarding vaccine and side effects are being shut down regularly, as freedom of speech is great as long as it's not controversial or contradictory to the prevailing govt narrative). However, we are being labelled conspiracy theorists for questioning the validity of the presented evidence re AZ and even Covid. Which is news to us. We are just a normal family doing our best to get by. Noone wants to hear any "bad" news, even if it has merit. So by extension, being rational has translated into being irrational. Many folk are sleepwalking hoping this dream will end, not seeing the wood for the trees, instead of being awake (not woke, but awake) and affecting change through observation and exchange of information. But observation is a rare commodity and fear discourages free exchange of information. It's all "meh meh meh" .....and they want to give the vaccine to kids ...have they no shame?

Have to say Casey, your contributions on the on going Covid story (monumental ballsup) have been a tonic. Was sceptical for sometime but am more sympathetic to your premise regarding the pandemic and the reaction to it. Vaccines are such good PR, it is a shame that the general population are being used as guinea pigs for DNA altering drugs with as yet unknown and potentially damaging long-term consequences and side effects. Doubly bazarre,the governments of the planet are prepared to take the risk in the name of exigency. AZ is particularly dirty and incomplete, if not down right dangerous as to be considered a lethal weapon to some of the unfortunates unlucky enough to experience the more unpleasant side effects of being injected with it. Such is political expediency and exigency at the altar of public health. Forgive the unPC comments, but they are borne from experience, as my wife has had long-term reactions to the "cure". Most folk don't want to hear anything but the popular narrative, even if it vere's heartily away from some inconvenient truths. So thank you Casey keep up the good work, it's appreciated.

Don't think the bull run has ended, just a correction is very much on the cards. Timing of which suggests we have some room to manoeuvre but would not be surprised at all if the market tops out within the next couple of weeks, or anytime around 21/06....Suggest it is more a profit taking exercise than genuine full scale correction, which could/should be later in the year. Only mentioned this as markets have been red hot for months and swimming in liquidity, sooner or later some of that will be taken out in the form of profit taking. Suggest it may be a 10% er or even more. In the past have purchased ETFs that short the market and like to buy the Vix at less than 20, as it's a fair form of insurance (Imho). Psychologically, the oil markets have a problem with WTI being over the $75, which at current rates of progress is due to top out sooner than later. Just mentioning it.

Regards price points... am long on Brent with a target at $77.86 (suspect higher) once this is in, will look to cover positions on Oil and gasoline and look to take some insurance now with Vix@20 Gold and QQQ shorts as strongly suspect short term reversals will be due to unfold anytime subsequent or even before.

Trading gasoline and oil has been pretty epic this year, so far. The happy nexus (for Bulls) of constrained supply and increased demand have conspired to push prices ever higher, popping targets and passing milestones on the way. There have been some pull backs , but most of those were due to some healthy profit taking, others due to ill winds blowing a supertanker off course and blocking the Suez for a week or other such unforeseen, but welcome (for bulls) circumstances. However, as most of us with experience know that this too shall pass and inevitable corrections are due to manifest whether it is our want or not. It's a cyclic phenomena. Thing is, to be prepared for such eventualities one must start hedging one's positions accordingly. Or even reverse them entirely. One may suggest that a change in the wind or sea is due. Not in a "it's all going to fall, sell it all " kind of way, but more ;"it's been hot and sunny too long and we really need some rain". All I am suggesting is, it might be time to invest in a brolly and some Wellington boots, if one is trading Oil or Gasoline, or commodities in general. What rationale sets me on this course of action? Apart from bigger-than-it-should-be gut instinct, supply and technical chart action suggests a top is near or near abouts. Not to mention many traders have already blown their targets out of the water and could do with a holiday. Sell high, come back and buy at a decent discount and presto, lets dance again sort of correction. I could easily be mistaken and am still overall bullish on Oil and Gasoline, but sense a decent ($7-$10) correction is due by months end or thereabouts. Maybe the eclipse has set me off on a fools errand? However, I have always come to rue not listening to my gut and can scent the winds of change, so am planning on changing strategy in the meantime, moderating and shifting positions accordingly. Maybe it's soon time to buy some Gold or Silver ETFs or buy some QQQ shorts or just pick up the Vix at 20, for example and trade out when the targets have popped. Don't get me wrong, this is not an end is nigh kind of feeling, more a "we've maybe only got a few more weeks of this, before the clouds break" sort of feeling. After the rains there is a sense of renewal and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rodeo starts out all over again with the same associated vim and gusto, with just a few folk who were slow or arrogant or plain vanilla flavoured dumb,or leveraged to the max, wiped out by the sudden change in the proverbial commodity trading weather. Either way I wish all traders on the forum good fortune and timing and good health.

Technicals were all at their peak. Moving averages were due to cross and did. Trigger point. Normal retracement suggested 8-13% down trend, especially after such a sustained Bull run. Hedge Funds took their profits and freed up some cash while remaining Bullish in overall outlook. Been on holiday from trading subsequent to retracement, as was knackered and had had a good couple of months, so figured it was better to chill out than burn out. Back on it now though and took some time to investigate likely algorithms for future trading strategies.

As a creature of habit one tends to stick with the familiar, the usual, the normal and view with scepticism anything that doesn't fit within well known parameters. That includes, in my case, trading. However, times change and tempus fugit and we are too young to be so old, as to not at least examine and understand the new. I am not only talking about algorithmic trading but of decentralised finance, web 3.0 and the ramifications for global finance. And it's happening now. It is foolish to ignore or reject out of hand for reasons of being new and wildly unstable, as it is no longer new and is rapidly becoming a feature of doing business and trading now. Decentralised finance and crypto currently trades around $2-3 trillion dollars a day. This is growing. I am a dinosaur dealing mostly in Oil and gasoline, but even I have to pay attention to a cpuple of trillion bucks and counting. It seems web 3.0 is everything that web 1.0 wanted to be. Web 1.0 morphed into web 2.0 slowly after the dot com bubble burst in 2000-2001, as a consequence of data monetisation, which the FANGs profit from mightily. Sceptics at the time (2001) thought then the web was dead and they could happily return to the old analogue world. Not so. Web 3.0 promises to end said hegemony of the Fangs, not to mention banking hegemony, central banking, fiat currency, in fact anything where data is aggregated, connected and used, including the management of connected machines and associated AI systems. In short, a revolution. I would have been perfectly happy to ignore it. When Facebook wanted to create their own crypto currency, the Libra, you can see they understood the opportunity and long term threat to their very existence and the promise of crypto. Zuckerberg must be peeved with the anti-trust boys and girls on that one (No you can't print your own money Mark). With the new generation Web 3.0 control of ones data reverts to the individual or company. The system is transparent and decentralised. Meaning companies will have to pay you for trading or using it (your data). A paradigm shift. The same can be said for banking and legacy banks may well be having quiet panic attacks on regular basis when considering their future, especially when they look at comparable Fintecs (Celsius for example). Let's not even mention mostly bankrupt or wholly unsustainably indebted fiat currencies and the role of central banks in a De-Fi new world. No wonder Jerome is keeping quiet and adopting a wait, we are real busy right now and we shall see, attitude to crypto. Not to mention trying to shut down XRP (it wont work, classifying it as a security not a currency might). The ramifications are terrifying and limitless. But so are the possibilities. As I mention it would be easy to ignore or discount were it not becoming the elephant in the room. As an oil trader I am insulated from this more than most, save the algo traders who are quicker and more efficient and without any trace of emotion. But I am not losing sleep yet. I mention this because sure as we knew the internet was going to change our lives, but didn't exactly know how, Web 3.0 will absolutely and radically change our lives and we must embrace it, as like it or not, it is a growing part of our future. Bitcoin may be a bubble yet to burst ( weekend flash crash, for example) but crypto, blockchain and DeFi are most certainly, here to stay. Hope everyone has a good week and profitable trading to all!

Really enjoying your missives re market timing. Thank you for your continued diligence. Interesting and informative. Left field too, which is satisfying. Your understanding of the methods of WD Gann are profound, though suspect WDG adopted said methods rather than originally authored them. Btw, suspect Oil market will retrace from Monday/Tuesday, till 23rd March(ish) then resume it's bullish trend. Have a great weekend and look forward to your next update.

Life can be viewed as a series of random events to be survived. Others may prefer to see patterns within the random. Others again see patterns repeating and the random chaos being slightly more organised than previously envisaged. Other fatalists see it all as the omnipotent ones' great plan and who are we to question? Which is great if one passively accepts the seemingly inevitable, not so great if one sees the chance to change and actively seeks to affect change. As the planet spins and we experience constant change in motion. Commodities have boomed, on a Bull run last witnessed during the Crash of 2008/9. Commodities, especially those related to energy are drivers of interest rates and inflation. We are currently in a super low interest rate environment. It is expected that these super low rates will continue on indefinitely. I question those expectations. Those poor folk freezing their cabooses off in Texas must also be beginning to question these expectations. Why would freezing Texans question anything except how do I heat my house/food/water at the moment? For Texas is symptomatic of the very question of energy use, rising prices that effect rate of inflation and rate of inflation which influences the rates of interest. Texas consummately failed to expect the unexpected (bad weather) and the energy grid (designed for maximum economic efficiency) comprehensively seized up and failed when it snowed. The price of power went through the freezing roof. Those with power banks and their own generators carried on as usual. Texas uses Gas, Wind and Solar to power the grid. The wind is free, though generators are not, the sun is free, though panels and rare earths are not, natural gas is free as it is under the ground, though extracting it is not. The price of Natural Gas (being a finite resource) is 33% higher than Feb 2020. No inflation there then. Oil has recovered all of its losses from 2020 and is on a serious tear. The technicals suggest there is ample room for more upside. Opec+ appear to have learned the error in their ways and are acting in a more concerted manner to achieve price certainty and seem in no mood to drive the price down for market share. Better a higher price for less oil. It's finite after all. Rumours the Oil business is dead are grossly exaggerated. Back to the original point, commodities are booming, Oil especially. There is a direct translation to inflation. Which inevitably has a direct effect on interest rates. Which effect equities.... The price of Oil could go to $100 again. Higher even. I expect to see the price of WTI to exceed $72 this year. $75 for Brent. I also expect a correction of 3-4% soon, but with a rebound. I haven't even mentioned Copper, Iron, rare earth or even and especially Food, feedstock and grains.... Deflationary environment? For how long exactly? Continuing with low interest rates when inflation is rising surely only enhances a K shaped recovery, those on the up who have, will be fine. Zero interest rates are great if you have borrowed to the moon (like most Governments and Federal banks), folk with massive mortgages, businesses with vast leverage... but if you haven't? Sooner or later there will be a reckoning between the reality of surging commodity, food and feedstock prices and the expectation of low/negative interest rates.