786Trader

I like your interpretation of future possibilities. I don't think the Dow will recover to post crash highs anytime soon, maybe 2022. You have drawn a whipsaw. Not sure it will whipsaw quite as much but may trend negative to current highs for sometime yet. Sideways down. Bear in mind there is no shortage of money supply (markets are awash with it) enough to stem the tide for the meantime. Devaluation of the USD$ may be a result and with it the desired increase (small) in inflation which will help with the deficit. Danger being stagflation and a moribund economy (eg. UK). In fact, re UK economy combination event of Covid and hard Brexit will almost certainly kipper UK GDP for years to come and cost the UK economy trillions to little or no measurable benefit (barring flag waving rights). Naturally, the unfortunate taxpayer will foot the bill again.

Read an interesting article on Yahoo finance which showed the majority of gains in the Nasdaq is down to the big 6 tech firms and without them there would have been no gain in the Nasdaq since 2016 and the majority of movement is down to the price of 6 companies. It would appear, in the search for dividend and profit everyone has opted to buy Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Netflix, as a herd reaction. No one has stopped to question whether they are over-bought at all, or if they may have questioned that premise, the thought would have been quickly cast asunder in the wake of evidence to the contrary (prices of the big 6 only bulldozing up). This may have lead to a false narrative, where we may consider everything is rosy in the garden of equities and everything will all be alright soon, as long as the big 6 keep on growing, even if much other evidence suggests the contrary. Which it is. From employment to housing arrears, from relationships with allies and perceived foes to actual communal transmission of Covid 19. From stratospheric Fed and govt debt to trade imbalance, from irrational exuberance to actually facing reality now. Instead of relentless optimism, relentless realism. It would appear we are in for another week of exuberance. The sun is shining, people are out enjoying themselves and one could be forgiven for thinking the crisis is over and we can all go back to doing exactly what we were doing before this inconvenience struck. Reassessment can be inconvenient too. No one likes to be wrong, (though we often are). Least of all the Potus, who's principle motivation may not be the well being and good health of his people, more the well being of the economy, more specifically the price of equity. He encourages more exuberance even when evidence may suggest otherwise. It is earnings season for equities, the reports, many of which would make grim reading in more sober times, will be ignored for even the merest hint that the future will be brighter or it wont get any worse, from a reaction to Remdesivir (which appears to improve more than it harms, improves 9 harms 3...a litigation lawyers dream) to any glimmer of positive data. Then one looks at the price of Tesla and realise the equity markets really have gone potty. Look at Tesla's numbers and its price makes no sense at all. Herd irrational exuberance in a nutshell. VW and Toyota p/e far less than 10, now look at Tesla and you know its share price is on steroids and anything else the doctor will prescribe. I recently drove to the New Forest to visit a good friend. It is normally a patience sapping experience, but left on Friday 7 pm and arrived at 9;10 pm in record breaking totally unbelievable 2 hours 10 minutes. In July. Normally, it takes at least 3 hours. Roads are still quiet. Which leads me to question again the premise of a "V" shaped recovery and consider whether those that suggested a "V" shaped recovery actually have very poor hand writing and their version of a V more closely resembles a flattish tick or even a very sloppy W. I digress, the point being there has to come a time when the US has to take off its rose tinted glasses and see the reality of Now for what it is, rather than wishing it all away for a brighter tomorrow. Might not happen this week as equities push higher but you can't escape it forever. Can you?

It would appear cooperation and mutual benefit are also expedient in the neo Covid world😃 For how long is open to debate...

Brent has been in a protracted battle since Covid 19 to regain it's 2019 price-point of $55-$65. To do this producers have had to put aside competitive animosity and fundamental political differences for the greater/ their own good. To a great extent this has worked and producers have managed to agree to cut supply in order to regain margins. All well and good. Naturally, there are going to be rocks in the road to this continued cooperation. One such obstacle is Libya. Another is Venezuela. They are currently unable to produce oil as they are being hampered by inconvenient sanctions (Venezuela) and a nasty little civil war (Libya). However, it is looking more and more likely that Libya will once more become a global supplier in the not too distant future. Libya has lots of oil, it is the largest producer and has the largest proven reserves of oil in Africa and is on the point of reopening the taps. Global supply is almost balanced with demand, I wonder how OPEC+ members feel about the return of Libya into their club of bonhomie? Will they be overjoyed to once more compete with a cash strapped Libya and their gazillions of barrels of oil? The risks are obvious. The Opec+ love in could disassemble and with it the stability in oil price. Covid 19 could return in the fall before it's exit stage left come 2021. A combination event is within reasonable feasibility. Plus, the world economy will almost certainly be in contraction until 2021 heading off greater demand at the pass. It is therefore my humble opinion that oil (Brent) shall not rise inexorably, but trade within a range of $38.5-$47.5 until mid 2021. That's my bias, for what it's worth.

Looks like both are over valued. Personally don't rate Tesla as highly as others do. But, when asking the question, " Do you think this company will still be doing business in ten years?" ", my answer is "yes both Tesla and Amazon will still be around come 2030". Though if Amazon hives off AWS then maybe not. As for Tesla, if there were legislation requiring personal vehicles to be electric then it's on to winner. If not then, Toyota are a better company, even if they are old tech legacy. Tesla's share price is built on speculation, not profits. Amazon without AWS is a profitless leviathan. The FANGS will also have to face a vexing taxation reckoning as their practise of profit allocation (ok profit laundering) is unfair and the EU and even the UK will tax them fairly according to profits generated at source location. They will not like that much, even if it is the right thing to do. They are both over priced. However, as compared to the Chinese stocks (P/E 25-35x) they are cheap (which they are not). It could be countered something is worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it, depending on how much they want or need it, or consider it's value may increase over time, even if they are paying tomorrows/next months/next years prices today. In short, well done to those who are profiting from shrewd market timing, especially with Amazon and Tesla, even if they are both over-bought.

Unemployment numbers are eagerly awaited. They normally tell us the state of the economy and should indicate the price of equities. In a normal world that is. This is hardly normal, or new normal is on steroids, myopic and heady with fast cash. It is baffling. Even with good numbers from the US department of Labour, it is still likely to read ongoing claims of approximately 20 million. A virus as virulent as ever, with only suggestions of a vaccine (available Dec2020 earliest). A president concerned primarily with continuing his power and not much interested in the "foreign" virus, which now is boring him. Naturally, the markets have taken this as another massive positive and are buying like it's 2019 all over again. Are the majority just suckers? Obviously P/E ratios are for has-been nay-sayers, as is the notion of value. Even as Facebook is boycotted, hurting ad revenues, its price is still on an upward trend. Google is also taking a hit to its ad revenue, yet the same can be said (the only way is up). I have been astounded repeatedly by the Dow's irrational resilience. Unlike Oil, which has reacted pretty much as it should and is priced fairly (ok, plus or minus) and that is despite Saudi and Russia being total numb skulls in March. Opec+ has members that dislike each other intensely and would not wee on each other even if they were on fire, but have managed to come together for their common good. The result is supply and oil price is moving with demand. (One has to question Saudi insistence on heavy premiums to Asia, and conclude Saudi royals oil ministers are not business people and treat Oil as political, as they sure don't understand the nature of good business and are doubtless surprised when they are the last person anyone wanting oil calls, but I digress). Oil seems to be fairly priced according to market value. Equities are not. Equities are still in lalalalala land. There was a time when there was a symmetry to the price of oil and the value of equity (25% of all equity is oil ) . That correlation has ceased to have relevance in the present paradigm. In a normal world, equity would be around 25% down from its highs, roughly equivalent to the oil price being 25% down, which is roughly equivalent to the total level of economic activity being down. But not today. Today those correlations do not work. Because the Time factor has been ignored where equity is concerned. Because the Fed has flooded the markets with liquidity and related stimulus. Where Einstein maintained time being relative, it would appear equity is also relative and travelling at considerably different speeds to the rest of the actual economy. Or is that just those trading equity? Dow does not like down. But sometimes you have to come down, don't you? It's not called a correction for nothing.

Ever had one of those days when it was better to stay in bed? When everything one touches turns brown and squidgy? Oil is readjusting and having a moment of clarity and the price is falling, currently 7.7% off it's Monday Am high. Is this simply profit taking or is it Hedge Funds simply cashing in their considerable chips and seeing what happens next? Result is market is quietly falling. This has woken a few to the excesses of market exuberance in other markets and prompted more cashing in. Naturally this morning (very early) I managed to make a double whammy of errors of judgement. Firstly I bought when I should of sold (self inflicted error due to mis-click), secondly I sold when I should of held (common mistake). Bye bye last weeks profit. Despite reading the market and mostly understanding it, I still managed to conspire to self sabotage. Therefore, some days, it's better to stay in bed, side step the day, go for a walk, feed fish, relax. Anything but try and make more money. Just putting it out there.

Agree with Kodiak, Elle and Dmedin... this is a bubble. A really, really, big bubble and the solution seems to be: patch it and keep on inflating! Oil price is being pushed up by the same bubble makers, would not take much for the asset to reset according to actual demand as opposed to inferred demand. There is a whole lot (like really lots and lots and lots) of stored oil and distillates out there. The anticipated return of air travel has failed to materialise and is very unlikely to until mid 2021 (barring the short sweet summer hiatus). That's 17% of normal oil demand right there. Not to mention travel to and from airports. Thereby suggesting where the price is ($42.95), is where it approximately should be, though <$38.50 would be a more accurate current representation, methinks. Also, agree the way to go is follow the trends and get in and out quickly. Don't be greedy and don't be afraid to take a loss from time to time, when necessary.

Problems? What problems? No problems. Indices don't lie, do they. Recession? What recession? Greatest comeback in history? Evolution without the revolution and don't worry about the fundamentals, it's the Fund-a-Mentals that power this recovery. Not professing to be super intelligent, am still struggling to deal with the irational exuberance exhibited by the equity indices around the world. From the perspective of a humble Crude Oil day trader (Brent), none of it makes any real sense. It's as if logic has been bypassed for a carefree attitude " it'll be alright and if it wont the Fed will pay for it" which seems to underscore market movements over the last 2 months. With Oil it has been simple, no demand= lower price (Russo/Saudi pishing contest excepted, which served to lower prices more). Where Oil is approaching an inflection point at $50 for Brent (probably less), it would appear equities passed that point in April and see no end to the bull run, new all time highs? Yes please? What about fundamentals? P/E ratio's? Debt? It appears questions like that are about as welcome as a potent **** in a lift. It's all ok as the Fed will pay, by giving out free money or less than zero rate loans without the necessary caveat of actually paying it back. Not to mention buying as many junk bunds as the market can issue. Grrreat! So why then all the fuss in the first place? Remember Covid 19? Very contagious virus, more deaths than Malaria or any US war since 1942-45? Obviously, that is not important anymore as the recovery is on, the economy recovered and there will be a successfull working vaccine by September, wont there? So definitely nothing to worry about or duly concern anyone. Better forget about it? Stop being a party pooper! Enough of the negative vibes? As for the UK, why all the concern about Brexit? I mean the BoE will pay for it, just like the Fed. Wont it? Europe will cave in to Boris's demands as it must, wont it? It surely will not damage the UK economy if there were no deal, now would there? Again, I am being a party pooper and shining the light of tricky questions in places it certainly is not welcome. So where is all this irrational exuberance coming from? Frankly, I feel I have missed out. Still when hard numbers and data actually appear and the data can be analysed properly in the cold light of day maybe things will be different. As it is, the markets are sure there will be no second wave of infections and if there is, it is nothing to be concerned about. No country is manipulating the death rate to suit it's political leaders, that much is also true, surely. All nations are prepared for a resurgence in the R rate. It is nothing to worry about. Maybe I should put my head back in the sand and pretend it is all fine and rosey and just the same as last year, nay, better than last year. Just look at the indices, it must be.

Provided they don't completely hash it up, Brexit means Sterling will appreciate. Probably. The caveat being if it is not a hard Brexit with it's concomitant tariffs and hazards. A hard Brexit (which is bad for almost everyone) would lead Sterling to devalue some more, sub $1.20 and Euro1.05. If not lower. With a decent deal that is positive for all parties then Sterling may rise to $1.50+ and Euro 1.30+ . That's my position. However, our politicians and political advisors are best it seems at serving themselves and not so interested in serving the greater good (one rule for them,one rule for us, like Demonic Cummings for example). Therefore, what is obviously a good thing (a good deal) may easily be compromised by our political elite (again) as opposed compromising for the benefit of the majority. If one were to compare our economic state with other nations and blocs then Sterling is as knackered as any of the competition. Will only be more knackered if we make a bad deal (no deal) the world knows it and will pan our currency with prejudice if we fail to do so. (Make money while seeing your competitor fail) Double bonus if you are not British. The negotiations are of paramount importance and must not be pucked up.

Why would I purchase an equity knowing the dividend will be low or non existent in the expectation of fair value in 6 to 12 months time, but pay the expected price now? Confused? It would appear P/E ratios no longer apply in this new normal freakfest that are current global indices, most especially the S&P 500 and DOW, which are frankly so removed from current reality as to be in need of professional therapy. It is voluntary myopia, a refusal to see what is in front of you and only accept what you want to be, and that becomes your reality. In the sixties people with long hair used to take hallucinogenics for that sort of effect, now one just has to trade in equities. It would appear there absolutely is no global health crisis, which will vanish sooner than it appeared and everything is much the same as last year and all the bad news is already priced in.........?????!!!? What with the Fed buying junk(Ok, BB) bonds by the billion I suppose we can all pretend, even if we are nowhere nearer finding an end to this than we were in Feb. Remdesivir is not a cure, it merely encourages recovery for those who would recover anyway, chloroquine has disappeared off the radar of great white hopes and we are still Quarters away from a proven effective vaccine. True the world is wearily returning to work, but those who think Q3/4 will be a return to normal have comprehensively failed to understand the nature of this Virus and its economic effects. Take a walk around your local town and see for yourself. For the markets to assume there will be no second wave is also risk indeed (naturally only with clients money). The bond markets, it seems are more cautious and expect a slower return to normalcy. Equity traders , it would appear do not. To return to the first point, why buy a stock, some already close to all time highs, in the expectation of price increase in the indeterminate future when earnings will be commensurately lower? Sounds like Bull logic morphing into BS logic. It would be Kafka-esque, but as it's 2020, it is more Trump-esque. Happy trading.

It would appear the Market needs no fundamentals, almost churlish and passe to suggest they are of any significance which is pretty dumb and crazy really.

Point being, company valuations are based on P/E, which have become less and less reliant on the E for earnings. It is as if the "E" is being viewed with binoculars rather than a microscope.

As an addendum, one only has to look to China and see their reality on the ground. China is currently back to "normal", it is on a 3 day week (split shifts to avoid any rush hour), shops are open but sales are down considerably, bars are open but empty, flights are still grounded and the state and people are still very nervous of a second wave of infections coming from without. Savings are down and spending is more parsimonious as folk suit their budget to new incomes. In short not the "V" shaped recovery many expect or predict. Naturally, it will be different in the West, won't it?

S&P500 is now at levels last seen October 2019....a mere 6 months ago. When things were apparently very much like now. Totally similar, in fact. Save 26 million more unemployed, govt debt that has gone into the stratosphere, whole market sectors on their knees with no sign of rapid recovery and a highly contagious, potentially deadly virus that still infects the planet. Apart from that, everything is the same and the S&P practically mirrors the economic reality and is definitely not an over exaggeration or bubble, plus the virus has gone and will not come back until after the election when it will be proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, to be some else's fault. So is it really just like last October? Are we due another melt up of equity and commodity values? Or are equities already over valued as things stand? Has unlimited QE simply funneled vast amounts of tax payer cash into the hands of those who know best how to profit from such federal and government largesse at the expense of the real? If the S&P were to be believed everything is just like October 2019. This is not the case surely? Is this another bubble ready to pop? Looks like it. Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance. As usual, the markets are overcompensating. The mechanisms being used to fix current problems are only building greater ones down the road, at the expense of the taxpayer, naturally. The distribution between those that have and those that don't have enough will only widen, causing real future problems, not to mention ethical contradictions and matters of jurisprudence. It is all too surreal and surely not at all like last October, no matter what the S&P infers. (That he garden is rosy once more).

Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many. Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know? Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.

Many equities and indices ( eg. the S&P500) are around the same level as the Dec 2018 dip, which is surprising. Then there was no world health emergency, no 26 million Americans on welfare, no global lock down. The markets seem to think it an irrelevance, such trifles are merely temporary rocks in the road, it would appear. They suggest hits to earnings are already priced in and dividends and bonus bonanzas are just around the corner in Q3, early 2021 latest. It would appear these analysts don't get out much. That's lock down for you. "The rebound will be a V"......I may suggest the beta blockers are working, as social distancing will be around into 2021 and a "U" shaped recovery or even a double dip as equally, if not more likely. Naturally, no one mentions the invisible elephant in the room....the second wave. Most of us would have researched the "Spanish" flu epidemic of 1919, or at least conversed with some that have. The virus then came in 3 waves between 1919 and 1920/21. The second wave being the worst. It would appear the markets think there will be no second wave because the curve has been flattened. That is a mighty assumption indeed. So it's all alright and the only way is up......the curve has been flattened let's get back to normal as quickly as possible......yes, in our dreams. If I may suggest, the reality of Covid may be different to market hopes and expectations. There still is no cure, there is no herd immunity (as happened in 1919-1920), social distancing and cleanliness are the only weapons. And ventilators. So far. That is the reality on the ground, where normal people live. It is irrational exuberance and optimism to think that because the curve has flattened, the crisis is over. It is not. I share the markets view that this crisis will pass, but disagree with the timeline. As an aside, I would strongly suggest to all concerned they refrain in total from taking any of president Trump's advice regarding health, safety and Covid... do not inject or ingest bleach, do not lay on the sunbed for hours at a time, don't waste your money on chloroquine (unless you have malaria). He is a showman, not a doctor and he really wants to be reelected whatever the cost. Social distance, keep your hands clean and stay safe.

Once more we find ourselves in accord, in principle. This melt up is being sponsored in America through the Fed and Mnuchkin at Trump's urgent request (election nearing perhaps?). Instead of sponsoring those that need it, they sponsor those that don't. I am not a slave though so refute that.

Some in the markets (indices) think, it would appear, that Corona is all over bar the counting and the markets will soon get back to melting up. This is perhaps, premature. Slowing of virus numbers suggests that isolation is having an effect, not that Corvid is defeated, cured or controlled. The first peak is flattening out. Governments are hoping for herd immunity, which so far has not achieved the saturation levels required to become successful at curbing the spread of the virus. There has been sufficiently inadequate testing in most countries to be able to accurately project future trends with any certainty. To infer, therefore that Covid 19 is in retreat is optimistic and probably inaccurate. Which has not curtailed the risk taking currently prevalent in most markets, some backed by inferred government guarantee. (Tax payer funded) Now we take into account the costs. Which are also by no means over despite the considerable intervention from governments. The costs to demand, to cash flow, to confidence, to employment, to travel, leisure and commodities (mostly energy) among others. These are by no means paid for, even with government largesse,(the unlimited debt/ free money tree **** forest). The assumption that Covid will not return post resumption of normal economic activity is an assumption worth vigorously challenging. China has not achieved herd immunity, no country has yet. Until that happens, or a viable cure found (not chloroquine for example) economies and nations will be vulnerable, are still vulnerable. Social distancing will continue, meaning normal economic life will continue to be affected. Return to normal will take longer than we hope. Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by. The Dow being a prominent example. Point being; values are heading to over value already and the Q2 and Q3 numbers are going to make sobering reading. Not to mention employment /unemployment. This is not going to magically go away. We are closer to understanding and digesting the problems faced and doing something to solve them. But it's not all over. It's not even half time. Bare in mind Corona is a virus. The common cold is a Corona virus. We are yet to find a cure for the common cold. Where there is a will there is a way, but that requires concerted global policy and effort in a time when nations and politicians are too busy thinking about themselves (as is the trend). I will refrain from commenting too much about president Trump's response to this crisis as I would give him considerably less than the 10/10 he believes his performance and response merits. Performance yes, a reality star performs, a president governs. Forgive the comment , he has provoked my ire since Feb on this. It will pass. The markets have moved too soon. Yes there are seeming bargains out there. Not many.

True. Going for the big swings works and so does scalping for everyday gains. Big swings often take time and sometimes one has to be patient and wait and pay the vig for the wait. Taking profit where one finds it is no bad thing and to be encouraged and applauded surely? Especially if one is lucky enough to short, trade out and then reverse one's position and profit by each swing. I agree if one takes a position and is going long and has a clear target in mind there is little point trading in and out, but when there is obvious profit what's wrong with taking it? Traders seem to have different approaches to gain. If one were running a bot one could easily programme it to do exactly that.

Aye man, volatility is the multiplier!

Sound policy. It's a waiting game. I am prepared to sit on paper and real losses in oil and gasoline because I know the position is a good one. No pain no gain Bought Brent at 27.25 and 30.01, gasoline at 5500 and 6000 (which is real cheap) Have gone long on GBP/EUR and am going long GBP/USD. Still shorting Wall Street as it may have rallied too soon and 19-20k range is a tempting option to return to buying the market. Will wait to buy big 5 shares for another few weeks, until the peak (infection and death rate) have been reached and we all think about a return to work (those who still have a job). Then ride the Bull up, scalping all the way. That's the plan with us, even though it is fraught with risk, though we are banking on Corvid 19 not ending the world, just changing it and making the most of the times of change which are full of opportunity. Good luck and stay well.

A market suspension makes sense only for the short term (max one month).Market sentiment will return only when there is a strong feeling that the virus had been controlled. To keep markets open in this slow motion car crash of volatility is only encouraging more uncertainty and panic.

Trillions of dollars in stimulus around the world, interest rates at near zero, an uncoordinated global response to an imminent threat and continued capital flight are recipe indeed for indigestion, confusion and irrational behaviour, compound this with the whole planet under virtual house arrest and we have the joys of 2020. Volatility means profit, but it would appear this is only the end of the first act. Of course, I have failed to mention the peeing contest MBS and Vladimir Vladimirovich are continuing, whilst the global economy sinks, all to spite the good old US of A and prove who is top dog in Oil. The mindlessness is stupefying. However, it is no surprise. The question remains, will normal return? Where do we go from here? Does this mean another 10 years of austerity to pay for the limitless super cheap credit now on offer? Will things ever be the same again? One thing is sure this is nowhere near being over. As time lines go, we have months more of this. China is tentatively returning to normal-ish lite in places, but can hardly be said to be being confident. That is after 3 months of China style, authoritarian, strict isolation. It would therefore be fair to suggest 3 months as an acceptable timeline to control the virus spread. Of course, it could return for a second time come the winter, if we don't do it right first time and that also has to be factored in. Yes, equities are cheap right now, but where will they be in 3/4 weeks after the expected pandemic reaches peak numbers in the USA and UK? How many people will be left with a job after an economic shutdown of such magnitude and duration? Social distancing is here to stay for the short term and could last for up to a year, so much as most of us dream about a fabulous holiday anywhere but home, that still remains a flight of fancy rather than a flight on an Airbus or 777. There is also the question of public order, (as patience and sanity are tested to new found limits), food supply and logistics. At its worse this virus could claim many lives unnecessarily. Sooner or later governments will have to make a Hobson's choice, public health vs the economy. A survival of the fittest choice, where we could either shut down all economies for upto a year and reset 01/01/2021 or plough on, do our best and trust to fate. A survival of the fittest and smartest ethic may win the day, condemning the poor, the weak and the old to their fate so the global economy does not tank completely and sink on the rocks of Corvid 19. Not a happy choice. Perhaps I am over reacting, I am not a pessimist by choice, I am an optimist and believe this too shall pass, however the pragmatic realist looks at the situation and does not like the alternatives. So where is the profit? Those companies which have mountains of cash will be fine, big food retailers, Amazon (but even their warehouses are less than full as delivery times extend more into the future), Netflix, Instagram and youtube seem to be occupying alot of my son's time. Some online Casinos, communications and mobile companies including the old favourites like ATand T and BT in the UK as they will have strong cash revenues throughout. Organic farmers. Soft commodities. Go long on Oil and gasoline (if you can afford the wait). The banks that survive this will be stronger for it. Bizarrely, the non government backed Bit coin may come out well. Leisure, travel, events and sport have had it for 2020 (not to mention the gig economy and the self employed) and the future doesn't look so rosy for gyms (wow I miss my gym, pool and sauna). All these will be pleasures for later on. Also, many of us will not be enjoying as much as one would expect, the protracted family time many of us are experiencing. I love my wife and son dearly but 24/7 is proving to be a challenge in itself (and we have space!). So where do we go from here? Nowhere, we are all under house arrest. The longer lockdown lasts the more lives are saved, but the more the global economy is damaged. Life or money? Or a fundamental change in our value system?