I haven't traded for many years and started recently again. Pretty simple strategy: I am looking on a daily chart for the major indices (eg S&P500, Nikkei 225, DAX30) and have Bollinger bands (20, 2.5). As soon as there is a significant breakout below the lower band (or higher band, but since I have started trading, it was always the lower one) I will buy in. Usually not into a straight falling knife but wait until there is some stability eg for 15-30min at a low level.
I have placed now around 15 trades and although some of them were deep red (i have to start reading up again on stop loss, money management etc) at some point, they all bounced back into the Bollinger Bands and gave me a nice profit. Always within 24h, in the vast majority within 8h (ie same day).
Now I realise that's an extremely simple strategy but I have 15 winning trades out of 15 and made around 3k on a 20k account.
What am I missing? I am deeply pessimistic usually and if something is too simple, there is usually a major issue. Obviously, looking on longer windows, opportunities with the above are rather scarce as the prices are usually always within the Bollinger Bands and I guess I was lucky with the high volatility to have so many opportunities, but it seems like a simple and effective strategy as of now.