Jump to content

Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

IG Staff
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


Everything posted by Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

  1. Morning all, Crunch time in Ankara at 1200 BST today. Reuters polls are suggesting an increase of 425 basis points to 22%. Turkish banks, among them Garanti & IS bank, seem to be calling this much higher with predictions of 500bp / 22.75%. Most US & EU banks are hiding their cards. Privately a few of our liquidity providers are suggesting 500bp over the next two Central Bank meetings and a 300bp rise today; of course these are 3rd party predictions so usual caveats apply. We intend to widen guaranteed stop distances in the run up to this (and other pairs for MPC/ ECB), either way expect some volatility across all TRY pairs.
  2. Morning all, It is Labor [sic] Day in the US & Canada on Monday. Overall summary of changes to market hours (all hours below in UK BST): Monday 3rd September • US index futures close early at 18.00. We will make out-of-hours prices for Wall St, S&P and Nasdaq until they re-open at 23.00. • US & Canadian equities, and soft commodities, will be closed. • The VIX will close early at 16.30. • London Sugar (No. 5) closes early at 17.00. • US rates, Euribor and the Dollar Index close early at 18.00. • US metals & energies, including Nymex Crude, Gold and Silver close early at 18.00 • Brent Crude & London Gas Oil close early at 18.30. Tuesday 4th September • US grain futures open at 01.00. • Lumber futures open at 15.00, livestock at 14.30. • All other markets open as normal FX volumes will likely be pretty thin throughout the holiday. I'll try to answer any specifics you have, feel free to comment below. Cheers, Ludwik
  3. SocGen says USD/TRY is heading towards 8.00 https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/socgen-says-usdtry-is-heading-towards-800-20180820
  4. Sure, we've been monitoring. Will look to make some changes this morning.
  5. So 2 speeches from Erdogan at 12:00 and 14:30 UK time (now!). Finance minister (Erdogan's son-in-law) meant to speak at 12:30 UK time. Hold on to your hats.
  6. Meant to be 12:00 BST (14:00 Ankara). As an FYI, we've gone much wider on minimum non-gs stop distances (to prevent you opening and being closed immediately by spread). Mkt spreads were exceptionally wide this morning, I expect the same throughout any speeches/ press releases. Underlying TRY tom-next mid has also rallied 15.67% to just under 30 pts. This will likely mean it's very expensive to hold Lira shorts overnight, so please consider this going forward. You can see a (slightly delayed) indication in your watch-list.
  7. TURKISH LIRA DROPS 13.5% TO 6.30 VERSUS THE DOLLAR - will post more when possible, be careful- huge vol. spike this AM
  8. It depends. For shares the volume displayed would be that traded on the primary underlying exchange ( so, for example, with BARC it would be volume traded on the LSE, but not BATS, Chi-X etc). For other exchange traded products ( index futures, commodities, etc.) we'd use, broadly speaking, the volume traded in the front month underlying from the relevant exchange. So currently for the Germany 30 DFB we show volume traded in the Eurex DAX Sep18 (GXU8), and we'll move between contracts (so to DEC18, MAR 19, etc) as usual on expiry. With FX the OTC nature of the market means it's not possible to calculate, and therefore display, traded volume for the overall market. Our indicator shows the number of changes (ticks) in our aggregate bid/offer, which gives you a rough idea of volume.
  9. Historic FT headlines on the TRY for perspective. Sep. 5, 2013 Turkey opts for stable interest rates as lira hits record low Jan. 16, 2014 Turkish lira hits new record low vs dollar Dec. 14, 2014 Turkish lira hits all-time low as Erdogan takes EU to task Apr. 15, 2015 Turkish lira hits record dollar low Apr. 24, 2015 Turkish lira sinks to record low June 8, 2015 Turkish lira hits low after election July 15, 2016 Turkish lira in steepest fall since 2008 July 20, 2016 Turkish lira falls to new record low on S&P downgrade Oct. 10, 2016 Turkish lira tumbles towards record low Oct. 13, 2016 Turkish lira sinks to fresh all-time low Oct. 17, 2016 Turkish lira hits record low (again) Oct. 28, 2016 Turkish lira at another record low Nov. 7, 2016 Turkish lira hits lowest level since at least 1981 Nov. 8, 2016 Turkish lira rout deepens to hit fresh all-time low Dec. 1, 2016 Turkish lira slumps back towards record low after Opec deal Jan. 3, 2017 Turkish lira falls to record low as higher inflation spurs selling Jan. 5, 2017 Turkish lira suffers fresh blow amid ratings junking fears Jan. 11, 2017 Lira suffers 4% plunge – steepest since failed coup Nov. 21, 2017 Turkey’s central bank takes action as lira hits record low Apr. 6, 2018 Turkish lira hits record low as political risks cast pall Apr. 9, 2018 Turkish lira hits new low as Erdogan chases high growth Apr. 10, 2018 Turkish lira strikes another record low on growing outflow fears May 3, 2018 Turkish lira sinks to new record low as inflation rises May 14, 2018 Lira hits low after Erdogan stamps authority on monetary policy May 15, 2018 Turkish lira touches yet another low as Moody’s warns on bank risk May 21, 2018 Turkish lira extends declines with heavy drop to new record May 22, 2018 Lira swings to new record low in abrupt move May 24, 2018 Turkish lira resumes slide despite rate hike June 15, 2018 Turkish lira slides almost 6% in worst week in a decade July 11, 2018 Turkish lira hits record low against the dollar Aug. 1, 2018 Turkey’s lira weakens to fresh record low against dollar Aug. 3, 2018 Turkish lira hits fresh historic low Aug. 6, 2018 Turkish lira plumbs new low after central bank’s policy tweak (which I shamelessly stole from here: https://qz.com/1350332/the-relentless-decline-of-the-turkish-lira-as-told-through-exasperated-financial-times-headlines/)
  10. Fair point, but difficult to know for certain with Erdogan breathing down their necks.
  11. TRY keeps on plummeting, you'd think central bank intervention is likely at some point (possibly 13th September, next MP meeting). Turkish CPI inflation now predicted (some might say optimistically) by the CB to be 13.4% in 2018.
  12. USDTRY >5 Very important level (as previously mentioned). All eyes on the Turkish CB / govt. for any reactions.
  13. @TrendFollower Yes, can confirm that's right. Only new positions are subject to the ESMA minimum rates, so any positions you currently hold will be unaffected.
  14. Afternoon @cate For new positions yes, margin will be 3.33%. We won't add an additional risk premium specifically for GBP/USD (3.33% is high enough). Any existing positions you hold will remain at their current margin rates.
  15. @Caseynotes I like this ING sheet, stated EUR/USD levels seem reasonable. I'd (as would everyone else) be very surprised by a rate hike / hardening of monetary policy. Press conference likely to be slightly more choppy than recent (Draghi has been unusually placid of late). As usual, we'll widen guaranteed stop distances on affected FX pairs, indices & rates beforehand.
  16. Morning all, @cate The email you refer to was sent to clients that had, at some point, benefited from a rebate of some kind. No idea about the specific logic, so apologies if you received it without having done so! Re. PRT charts fees, I've been informed by our head of platforms that this will not be affected, so you will be refunded should you meet the relevant criteria ( 4 trades/ reasonable volume). Obviously this is based on our current understanding and interpretation of the ESMA rules, so possibly subject to change etc...
  17. Always enjoy reading these post decision. With most economists forecasting a hike, Aberdeen Standard Investments says the lira could tumble some 25 percent to an all-time low of 6 per dollar if officials surprise markets by not acting. - seems slightly too extreme. IMO Turkish central bank would look to take action before this point (5 per dollar is a big psychological barrier) but as always the Erdogan wild card remains in play, if he ties their hands who knows.
  18. TRY now tanking following unchanged central bank rates...
  19. Decent CAD move. Not much data for the rest of this week.
  20. Morning all - Happy Friday. FX traders be sure to look out for these CAD numbers @ 13:30. You'd think these were fairly benign, however recently CAD seems to enjoy moving over any kind of data release. We will, as usual, widen guaranteed stop distances shortly prior to these figures, so please do plan ahead.
  21. UK shares are price in GBX (pence), so you're out by a factor of 100. This correction to your calculation would result in [500 x (1.7090-1.6755)] = £16.75. Market spread at the time was approximately 0.2, so closing at the bid (sell) price of 1.7080 gives you £16.25. Hope that makes sense.