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Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

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Everything posted by Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

  1. USDTRY >5 Very important level (as previously mentioned). All eyes on the Turkish CB / govt. for any reactions.
  2. @TrendFollower Yes, can confirm that's right. Only new positions are subject to the ESMA minimum rates, so any positions you currently hold will be unaffected.
  3. Afternoon @cate For new positions yes, margin will be 3.33%. We won't add an additional risk premium specifically for GBP/USD (3.33% is high enough). Any existing positions you hold will remain at their current margin rates.
  4. @Caseynotes I like this ING sheet, stated EUR/USD levels seem reasonable. I'd (as would everyone else) be very surprised by a rate hike / hardening of monetary policy. Press conference likely to be slightly more choppy than recent (Draghi has been unusually placid of late). As usual, we'll widen guaranteed stop distances on affected FX pairs, indices & rates beforehand.
  5. Morning all, @cate The email you refer to was sent to clients that had, at some point, benefited from a rebate of some kind. No idea about the specific logic, so apologies if you received it without having done so! Re. PRT charts fees, I've been informed by our head of platforms that this will not be affected, so you will be refunded should you meet the relevant criteria ( 4 trades/ reasonable volume). Obviously this is based on our current understanding and interpretation of the ESMA rules, so possibly subject to change etc...
  6. Always enjoy reading these post decision. With most economists forecasting a hike, Aberdeen Standard Investments says the lira could tumble some 25 percent to an all-time low of 6 per dollar if officials surprise markets by not acting. - seems slightly too extreme. IMO Turkish central bank would look to take action before this point (5 per dollar is a big psychological barrier) but as always the Erdogan wild card remains in play, if he ties their hands who knows.
  7. TRY now tanking following unchanged central bank rates...
  8. Decent CAD move. Not much data for the rest of this week.
  9. Morning all - Happy Friday. FX traders be sure to look out for these CAD numbers @ 13:30. You'd think these were fairly benign, however recently CAD seems to enjoy moving over any kind of data release. We will, as usual, widen guaranteed stop distances shortly prior to these figures, so please do plan ahead.
  10. Great post. Lumber futures have now gone limit down (meaning the CME no longer accepts sell orders) ,immediately on open, 2 days in a row. As you say, does seem to be trending recently. Just as an FYI, when this does happen our market will switch to phone dealing only. Certainly one to watch tomorrow afternoon (opens at 15:00).
  11. UK shares are price in GBX (pence), so you're out by a factor of 100. This correction to your calculation would result in [500 x (1.7090-1.6755)] = £16.75. Market spread at the time was approximately 0.2, so closing at the bid (sell) price of 1.7080 gives you £16.25. Hope that makes sense.
  12. @247trader you're right, very tough time. TRY could have a lot further to go over the next few weeks if Erdogan starts putting pressure on the central bank or, worse, curtails it's independence. He's still fixed on lowering Turkish CB rates, and has appointed his son-in-law as finance minster (make of that what you will). Has called interest rates "the mother and father of all evil" & believes (unconventionally) that higher rates lead to higher inflation. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-currency/turkish-lira-hits-record-low-after-erdogan-interest-rate-comments-idUSKBN1K20UQ From a trading POV, TRY is very popular with both retail and institutional clients as a carry trade, in which you hold a long TRY position overnight to benefit from the positive swap rate. A falling TRY combined with Ergodan's (apparent) desire to cut CB rates might mean the end of a viable carry trade, and cause further downwards pressure should traders decide to liquidate/ switch to another high interest currency. It's difficult to gauge the impact of this as the vast majority of FX is OTC, but certainly a major factor. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/emerging-market-carry-trade-makes-comeback-as-dollar-rally-fades Either way likely to be extremely volatile for a good few months, one to watch.
  13. Hi Alex, We hedge our exposure to client positions by trading cryptocurrency on the underlying market. Purchasing and holding cryptocurrencies creates several unique challenges, one which is wallet risk (the risk of losing currency held). We therefore have internal limits which determine how much crypto we can hold in total, without creating an unacceptable business risk. When these limits are reached we restrict clients from opening fresh long positions, until our exposure returns to within our limits. I appreciate this can be frustrating, but hope this explains why we do so. We do try to offer our crypto pairs as widely as possible, and only restrict trading when necessary. Feel free to comment below with any questions. Thanks, Ludwik
  14. Afternoon again! Interesting thoughts on Bitcoin, it's great to hear what you think, and we'd be really keen to hear everyone else's thoughts on this. You might also find this article quite interesting, it is 3rd party so usual caveats do apply, but do let me know what you think: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/bitcoin-money With regards to going long ETH, my previous post covers why we sometimes restrict this. At present we're seeing large amount of clients buying ETH, and have simultaneously reached our internal limits, which means we can't offer any new long positions. We do review this regularly, and will allow clients to place new long positions as soon as we can. Same applies to new currencies, we are looking into them, I'll keep you up to speed about any developments. Thanks! Ludwik
  15. Good afternoon! You can currently spread bet ETH in either GBP or USD, although this would of course be using the ETH/USD pair as the price. At present liquidity on non-dollar ETH crosses tends to be limited, so we'd struggle to hedge large positions without disproportionately moving the price. I do however understand why you're keen to access the others and will certainly feed that back. There's not reason why, if liquidity does improve, we won't be able to offer these pairs in future. Many thanks! Ludwik
  16. Good afternoon, hope you're all having a good Friday! Sorry to hear you're disappointed with this. When we offer Ether we are required to hedge our exposure by purchasing physical tokens in the underlying market. Holding these tokens creates what's known as wallet risk, namely the risk of these tokens being lost, stolen or otherwise misplaced. We do mitigate this risk by storing our Bitcoin and Ether in offline (cold) wallets with reputable vault providers, but obviously this does not completely erase it. For this reason we have internal limits on how much of each crypto-currency we can hold ( afraid I can't confirm the specific limit). Once a limit is reached we're no longer able to accept new long positions, and you'd therefore receive a rejection message when attempting to do so. With regards to offering ETH in other currencies, we have considered this, and will keep reviewing it. At present the liquidity on exchanges we use to hedge our ETH exposure is inconsistent, so we're not comfortable offering other ETH pairs at this time. We do intend to regularly review this. If we were to offer these pairs we would in all likelihood maintain the same margin requirement (20% for ETH). When trading bitcoin you'd have a margin requirement on 7.5% across all pairs, XBT/GBP might appear lower due to the numerical price of bitcoin being lower when denominated in sterling, but the minimum trade sizes do reflect this so you should see little difference. Other bitcoin crosses (such as JPY & CNY) again come up against the aforementioned liquidity issue. It is difficult for use to hedge our exposure against the JPY and CNY, as almost no EU or US exchanges allow for Bitcoin liquidity in sufficient size against these currencies. We used to offer these pairs by internalising the FX rate, but given the increase in demand for bitcoin I'm afraid we're no longer able to do so. I'd suggest visiting Daily FX (our sister site) for more articles on Bitcoin and/or other Cryptos, as our analyst do put them our from time to time. As before,we are aware of the recent interest in all things crypto, and I will certainly pass on your request. Realistically we won't immediately be able to specialise as much on instant crypto news as other providers, but it's certainly something we can look into. I hope the above all makes sense. I'd be really keen to hear what other crypto currencies you ( and anyone else) would be interested in trading. Please do reply to my comment with any feedback and/or follow up questions. Many thanks and have a great weekend! Ludwik
  17. My pleasure! Glad I could be of help, and apologies for the lack of clarity given in previous responses. Posting this on the help and support portal is a very good suggestion, IT are currently in the process of creating a newer page which feeds through to here, but I'll certainly feed this back. Please do feel free to continue using the community for any general queries, we appreciate it! Ludwik
  18. Good morning! US withholding tax would apply to dividends received on all US shares, including positions on a spread betting account. If for example, you held a position which was entitled to a gross (before tax) dividend of $10, you'd receive either $7 or $8.5 (paying 30/15% tax at source) depending on whether you've completed a W8 form and are resident in a treaty country. In p&l terms this could mean that you're slightly offside when long, as the share price does tend to fall by the gross amount of the dividend, although many factors are obviously at play (e.g buyers pushing up the share price pre- divi). When short you'd pay the gross amount (100%). Note that this applies to equities only. When long a stock index you would not incur any withholding. and therefore receive / pay the gross amount each time. As an FYI the only stock index where you'd pay withholding tax is the Swiss blue chip. In terms of personal tax liability, dividends received on a spread betting account would not ordinarily create a UK tax liability, as they're received through a spread betting account in which you hold a derivative, not the underlying stock. I would add a caveat that we're not able to give specific tax advice, but under usual circumstances this would be the case. I hope this all makes sense. Feel free to let me know if you need any more info/ clarification. Thanks! Ludwik