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MaxIG

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Blog Entries posted by MaxIG

  1. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 23 Dec 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustme nts, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RTY GLOG US 23/12/2019 Special Div 38 RTY OFLX US 24/12/2019 Special Div 350 RTY CNXN US 26/12/2019 Special Div 32 RTY BSVN US 27/12/2019 Special Div 4 SPX VNO US 27/12/2019 Special Div 195 SPX HST US 30/12/2019 Special Div 5
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments 5th April 2021 - 12th April 2021

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 5th April 2021. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
                      How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments 29th March - 5th April 2021

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 29th March 2021. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    OMX
    SKAB SS
    31/03/2021
    Special Div
    300
    OMX
    VOLVB SS
    01/04/2021
    Special Div
    900
            How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  4. MaxIG

    ASIC margin rules from March 27th

    By MaxIG,


    ASIC regulation changes
    New ASIC regulations coming into force for Australia are set to standardise the way margin close out rules work for retail traders. If the total equity of your CFD account fall below 50% of the margin required for all your open CFD positions on your account, one or more of your open CFD positions will be closed out as soon as market conditions allow. On the IG trading platform the new margin close-out rules will come into effect from Saturday 27th March 2021. Please find an overview of the new regulation and how this may affect your account.
    Please remember that these changes only affect retail client accounts held with the Australian office of IG Markets Ltd (this includes New Zealand clients), and do not apply to IG Pro clients. Please add any query, question, or request for clarification in the comments box.
     
    What is the new ASIC margin close out rule?
    Put simply, under the new ASIC rules we will need to include running losses for limited risk positions when looking at the equity calculation. Let's look at a worked example. 
    Say you have $1200 cash on your IG account.  You place an Australia 200 trade with a guaranteed stop and it requires a margin of $1000.  If the market moves against you $200's worth you would then start to eat into your equity. If the market continues to move against you by a further $500 (i.e. 50% of the margin required to open your trade) your position would be closed. This is because your equity is now only 50% of your margin requirement.  The new ASIC rules require us to close the position.  You would be left with $500 in your account. Please remember if the market gaps over this level then there is no guarantee to close your trade at this exact 50% level. There is a 'negative balance protection' rule which will be in place from March 27th, however this applies to the account as a whole and only applies to new positions opened after March 27th. There are a couple of other important things to note
    We will not be implementing 24 hour or weekend close out rules for ASIC retail clients.  This change will be made on March 27th and will be applied on an account level (both existing and new positions). If you have a regular trader account, you can still use running profits to cover margin on new positions. Positions which have guaranteed stops will be margined at the higher value; maximum risk on the trade or the underlying market margin rate.   
    What does this mean for me?
    "I currently have a limited risk account" - If you currently have a limited risk account (i.e. every time you open a new trade you have to have a guaranteed stop attached to your trade) then you may be at risk of having your positions closed out automatically. This will be the first time that previously 'limited risk' accounts could get closed out automatically. 
    "I currently have a regular account" - If you currently have a regular account (i.e. you don't need to apply a guaranteed stop to every position, however it is an option if you wish) then you may be at risk of having your positions closed due to the above change in close out rules. When we calculate account equity today, we do not currently include running losses on positions with guaranteed stops. Under the new ASIC requirements, we will need to include running losses on such positions as part of the margin ratio calculation. This means that your positions will be closed out when your equity (ie cash including all running profits and losses) covers only 50% of your margin requirement.
     
    You may also find the following links useful.
    https://www.ig.com/au/asic
    https://www.ig.com/au/professional
    Once again, please remember that these changes only affect retail clients of the Australian office of IG Markets Ltd (this includes New Zealand clients), and do not apply to professional clients. Please add any query, question, or request for clarification below.
  5. MaxIG

    How will the new ASIC rules affect my IG account?

    By MaxIG,


    ASIC regulation changes
    If you have any questions regarding the information below please add a comment. To get the best experience on Community please make sure you LOGIN. Notifications, private messages (if required), and tagging are only possible if you are logged in.
     
    In August 2019, ASIC has proposed changes to the way CFDs can be offered to Australian retail clients and kicked off a consultation period to open up the discussion. After gathering feedback from traders and the industry ASIC announced new regulations which are set to go live on 29th March 2021. To comply with these new regulations you may notice some changes on your IG account from the week commencing Monday 22nd March 2021, you can find a roadmap for these changes below.
    Some of the changes include leverage ratio limits, standardized margin close out procedures, and negative balance protections for retail clients. The reason for such changes are to enhance protections for retail clients trading leveraged financial products in a rapidly growing market.

    Below is a timeline listing the key dates of the ASIC release and our implementation of the changes made on retail CFD accounts.  The changes outlined below will apply to retail CFD accounts held with IG’s Australian office, this includes New Zealand accounts. Pro clients will not be impacted.

     
    Wednesday 24th March
    Collateral - Clients were able to link their CFD and share trading accounts to use funds and shares held in their share trading account to cover margin for their CFD positions. As of Wednesday 24th March linked collateral accounts will no longer be an option for retail clients. Once we delink collateral accounts as part of the regulatory changes, clients will no longer be able to rely on their share trading account to cover CFD margin and need to ensure enough funds are held directly in their CFD account to cover the required margin deposit. If you have insufficient funds at this time your leveraged trading account will be at risk of position closures.


    Thursday 25th March  
    Select accounts set to closing only - Some clients may be trading with us under a select account, which allowed tailored rules around margin and liquidation. These account types will be switched to ‘closing only’ (i.e. the account type and agreed terms will remain, but you can only close your positions at your convenience and no new positions can be opened under this account type). Any new position would need to be opened under a newly set up, regular IG retail account, which will be accessible under the same login details.


    Saturday 27th March 2021
    Margin Changes - Margin requirements to open and maintain leveraged positions was one of the more prominent aspects of the ASIC regulations. On the Saturday, 27th March new margin floors will be implemented across all ASIC retail accounts for all new positions. Pro Level 1 accounts will also have new margin floors applied to their accounts. Existing positions will keep current margin rates. You can find more information regarding retail margin requirements here and Pro margin requirements here. Retail clients will no longer be able to reduce their margin requirement by using stops.
    Negative balance protection - All retail clients contracting to our ASIC regulated entity will have negative balance protection applied to their account. Pro Level 1 accounts that have not activated collateral will also benefit from negative balance protection. Please note this will only apply to debts incurred on positions opened after 27 March 2021.
    Offsetting long and short positions - If a client is currently long and short a particular market then they will currently pay 10% of either leg. From 27th March, clients will have to pay 100% of the ASIC margin on each position. This change will only apply on new positions, therefore if you are currently long and short the same market then you will continue to receive the concession.
    Rollovers - When Retail or Pro Level 1 clients futures contracts rollover and a position is opened after the 27th March, then the new position will be margined basis the ASIC or Pro Level 1 minimums.
    Automatic Close Out - Although margin will not increase for existing positions opened before this date, all accounts will be subject to the standardised 50% closeout rule. If your account equity falls below 50% of the total margin deposit required then we will need to close positions on your account as soon as market conditions allow. IG has already had a 50% liquidation rule in place for standard accounts, however limited risk accounts and anyone using guaranteed stops will need to ensure they obtain enough funds on their account to cover margin in addition to all running loss on their positions. We will no longer be closing positions if your account is on margin call for 24 hours or leading in to the weekend. We will also ensure to waive any negative balance incurred on retail clients CFD trading accounts.

    Monday 29th March 2021
    Rebates - Some retail clients may have received rebates based on trade volumes. ASIC regulations mean that retail clients will no longer receive any form of rebate. Any rebate accrued before the 29th March will still be credited.
    Refer-a-Friend – Bonuses for the refer-a-Friend scheme can only be paid on qualifying trades placed before 29th March.
    Share trading subscription fee - Clients that have held shares in their share trading account were able to have the quarterly subscription fee waived if they placed at least 3 trades in their linked CFD account.  After this day, we will no longer be able to count CFD trades for the waiver of the quarterly subscription fee applied to share trading accounts. Any client that holds shares on a share trading account at the end of each quarter and has not traded at least 3 times across their share trading accounts only, will be charged the quarterly subscription fee.
     
    If you have any queries or questions regarding the new ASIC regulations please add a comment below. You may also find the following links useful.
    https://www.ig.com/au/asic
    https://www.ig.com/au/professional

    Once again, please remember that these changes only affect retail clients of the Australian office of IG Markets Ltd (this includes New Zealand clients), and do not apply to professional clients. Please add any query, question, or request for clarification below.
  6. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments 8th March - 15th March 2021

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 8th March 2021. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    RTY
    AJRD US
    09/03/2021
    Special Div
    500
    RTY
    RILY US
    09/03/2021
    Special Div
    300
    FBMKLCI
    PTG MK
    09/03/2021
    Special Div
    5
    FBMKLCI
    GENT MK
    12/03/2021
    Special Div
    8.5
    FBMKLCI
    MAXIS MK
    12/03/2021
    Special Div
    1
            How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments for 28-Dec to 4-Jan

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 28th Dec 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments for 21-Dec to 28-Dec

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21st Dec 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    RTY
    TG US
    21/12/2020
    Special Div
    597
    RTY
    OPY US
    21/12/2020
    Special Div
    100
    SPX
    CME US
    24/12/2020
    Special Div
    250
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. MaxIG

    Dividend Adjustments for 14th-Dec to 21st-Dec

    By MaxIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14th Dec 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    UKX
    MRW LN
    17/12/2020
    Special Div
    4
    PSI20
    JMT PL
    14/12/2020
    Special Div
    13.8
    MEXBOL
    WALMEX* MM
    14/12/2020
    Special Div
    47
    NDX
    PCAR US
    17/12/2020
    Special Div
    70
    SPX
    SLG US
    14/12/2020
    Special Div
    169.67
    SPX
    PCAR US
    17/12/2020
    Special Div
    70
               
               
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. MaxIG
    Dividend Adjustments for 30-Nov to 7-Dec
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30-Nov 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.




    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
            Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    OMX
    TELIA SS
    03/12/2020
    Special Div
    65
    NDX
    COST US
    01/12/2020
    Special Div
    1000
    NDX
    FAST US
    01/12/2020
    Special Div
    40
    RTY
    ITIC US
    30/11/2020
    Special Div
    1500
    RTY
    IIIN US
    30/11/2020
    Special Div
    150
    SPX
    COST US
    01/12/2020
    Special Div
    1000
    SPX
    FAST US
    01/12/2020
    Special Div
    40
     
     
     
     
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 2-Nov 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    NIFTY
    LT IN
    04/11/2020
    Special Div
    1800
    SPX
    AIV US
    03/11/2020
    Special Div
    738
    SPX
    ROL US
    09/11/2020
    Special Div
    13
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21st Sep 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
            Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    UKX
    HL/ LN
    24/09/2020
    Special Div
    17.4
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  13. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 13 Jan 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     
    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.

     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RTY PKE US 17/01/2020 Special Div 100           How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
     
  14. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 13 May 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RTY TSBK US 14/05/2019 Special Div 10 RTY RILY US 14/05/2019 Special Div 18  
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  15. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    RTY
    AMSF US
    12/11/2019
    Special Div
    350
    RTY
    RILY US
    13/11/2019
    Special Div
    47.5
    RTY
    TSBK US
    14/11/2019
    Special Div
    10
    RTY
    CNS US
    15/11/2019
    Special Div
    200
    RTY
    CSTE US
    19/11/2019
    Special Div
    15
    SPX
    TRIP US
    19/11/2019
    Special Div
    350
     
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
       
  16. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount AS51 CSR AU 8/11/2019 Special Div 4.8571 RTY HFWA US 6/11/2019 Special Div 10 RTY MPX US 7/11/2019 Special Div 10 RTY AMSF US 12/11/2019 Special Div 350 SPX ROL US 7/11/2019 Special Div 5 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
     
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
       
  17. MaxIG
    ASX edges higher: The ASX200 edged higher yesterday, as what is a technically overbought market recovered some of its Friday losses. Upside momentum has clearly cooled for the local stock market, ahead of a week heavily geared towards positioning for this weekend’s G20 meeting. Overall, it must be said it was a low impact and low activity day’s trade yesterday. Consumer stocks were most responsible for the day’s losses, sapping around 4 points from the ASX200, while Real Estate and bank stocks lead the market’ gains, following signs of improvements in clearance rates over the weekend in the Melbourne and Sydney housing markets. 

    Aussie Dollar pops on RBA comments: The Australian Dollar experienced a little lift to kick-off the trading week. A short-term phenomenon, for sure, the local unit climbed following comments made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe at a panel discussion yesterday morning, that “… it’s legitimate to ask how effective more [monetary policy] easing would be”. Though certainly not a statement about future policy, the comments did have the small effect of leading traders to briefly unwind their bets for future rate-cuts from the RBA, boosting the AUD. Currently, the market is pricing in a 77 per cent chance of another interest rate cut next week.
    Dr. Lowe’s policy prescriptions: Perhaps only for the econo-nerds: Governor Lowe did make some interesting statements about Australia’s future economic management, the role of monetary policy in the economy, and what might be required (the world-over) to support long-term economic health, yesterday. Reiterating what he’s implored in several of the RBA’s recent communications, Governor Lowe suggested that government should be “full of ideas” for large-scale fiscal and structural reforms, as a means of underwriting economic growth moving into the future. And the strong implication was that, with long-term borrowing rates at historically low levels, the time for such reform is now.
    The (true) dead hand of government? It makes for a pertinent debate: what and/or who is best at managing and growing the wealth of a nation? Demonstrably, the onus, since the Global Financial Crisis, has fallen disproportionately upon central banks to manage the economic fortunes of society. Though flawed, the historical process behind this quasi-system is explicable. Years of fiscal profligacy in Europe and the United States, particularly leading into the GFC, has rendered governments in those economic regions more-and-more impotent. This has created an over-reliance on central bankers to compensate for the noteworthy lack of fiscal firepower possessed by these governments, and sustain global economic wellbeing.
    Australia’s fortunate position: Central bankers, most pertinently at the Fed, ECB and BOJ, have thus (arguably) gone beyond their traditional mandate of price stability and full employment to ensure they achieve the tacit objectives outsourced to them by government. But, going back to Governor Lowe’s commentary yesterday, herein lies the rub of this for the Australian economy: owing mostly to good fortune, Australia’s fiscal position is relatively strong. That means that the RBA shouldn’t and needn’t be relied upon the same way other nations rely upon their central banks. Our government can do some of the heavy lifting – provided it can spend the money in productive ways.
    Another night of subdued trade: In overnight trade, markets were characterized by a small case of Monday-it is. Perhaps one could call it the hangover from such a big-week last week. Wall Street has traded on low activity, with the S&P500 continuing to dance around its all-time highs. Sovereign bond yield in North America and US fell once again, as markets maintain their move to price rate-cuts around the globe. The USD has remained offered. Falling yields and the weaker Dollar has pushed gold to fresh highs around $1420. And what it all implies for the ASX200 today: SPI Futures are pointing to a roughly 14-point drop this morning.
    Crypto’s spark-up: Crypto-currencies are experiencing a new lease-on life, with Bitcoin climbing above the $US11,000-mark for the first time in 15-months. Bitcoin has apparently benefitted from a handful of factors in the past month-or-so. For one, the prospect of imminent rate-cuts from central bankers across the globe is fostering both greater risk-taking, as well as a desire to diversify exposures to traditional, fiat currencies. On top of that, and perhaps more importantly, the re-escalation of the US-China trade-war, plus heightening geopolitical tensions across the globe – especially in the middle-east – is boosting the appeal of methods of payment and exchanges that skirt economic sanctions, and other regulations.

     
    Written by Kyle Rodda-IG Australia
  18. MaxIG
    Other central bankers throw their weight around: After the US Fed exited the ring yesterday, some of the world’s other heavyweight central-bankers weighed-in on the global race-to-the-bottom for global interest rates. The BOJ met yesterday, and though they kept their policy entirely untouched, it Governor Haruhiko Kuroda affirmed his commitment to monetary stimulus if necessary. RBA Governor Philip Lowe also delivered a speech, in which he was explicit in his belief that lower interest rates were necessary to absorb “spare capacity” in the labour market”.  And the Bank of England met last night, left interest rates on hold, but downgraded its forward-outlook, prompting increased bets of a rate-cut from the BOE this year.
    Notable price action: Risk assets rallied, while sovereign bond yields fell, the USD tumbled, and gold spiked as a result of the dynamic. The S&P500 touched all-time highs, and the ASX200 registered its own 11-year highs, as the prospect of easy-money the world-over whet investors risk-appetite – though SPI futures this morning a suggesting that enthusiasm will cool on the ASX, with ASX200 looking at a flat open. It wasn’t all smooth sailing it must be said. Nerves were rattled on news that Iran had shot down a US drone over the Straight Hormuz, causing a spike in oil prices on fears of conflict in the region.

    Rio saps some of the positivity from the market: The materials sector failed to capitalize fully on yesterday’s Fed induced bullishness. The responsibility for this laid at the feet of Rio Tinto, after the heavily-weighted mining-giant announced a paring-back of its iron ore output forecasts, owing to “mine operational challenges” being experienced by the company at a key mine in the Pilbara region. The news sent Rio shares down by over 4 per cent at stages yesterday; and, perhaps ironically, gave a little lift to iron ore prices, which had been showing signs of potential weakness, following the announcement by miner Vale that it would be re-opening one of its largest Brazilian mines.
    Australian rates keep falling: The increasing prospect of looser global monetary conditions, as well the dovish commentary from our own central bank Governor, worked its way into Australian rates markets yesterday. Bets for rate cuts from the RBA lifted modestly, with the implied probability of rate cuts for next month jumping to around 70 per cent, with 2-full cuts from the RBA before year-end priced in their entirety, right now. This sparked significant moves at the front end of the AGB yield curve: the rate-sensitive three-year note fell by another 4 basis points, to clock a fresh all-time low of 0.91 per cent.
    AUD pops courtesy of weaker USD: Despite this, the AUD tested life above the 0.6900-handle yesterday, as an even hastier fall in US Treasury yields enervated the US Dollar. An ominous milestone: the yield on the benchmark US 10 Year note fell below 2 per cent for the first time in more than two-and-a-half years, while the yield on the US 2 Year note dipped to around 1.73 percent. The fall in US yields at the front end of the curve narrowed the spread between US Treasuries and it Australian equivalent to around 78-basis points (briefly), and has underpinned the little rally witnessed in the Aussie Dollar in the last 24 hours.

    Gold hits new highs: Arguably, the greatest beneficiary of this week’s concertedly dovish stance from global central bankers has been gold. The price of the yellow-metal hit a 5-and-a-half year high yesterday, as the USD tipped-over, and global interest rates fell. Importantly, too, from a technical basis, the gold price punctured resistance around $US1360, and came close to hitting the key psychological level of $US1400.00. Though the broader narrative is supportive for gold, the price action is looking somewhat exuberant now: the daily RSI is giving an overbought signal, and the price is divorcing itself from fixed-income markets slightly, suggesting that speculative flow has seized control of the price.
    The latest readings on global growth: Attention will turn back to the global growth outlook today, ahead of tonight’s release of European Manufacturing PMI data. Markets are expecting another contractionary print in the key German and Europe-wide readings of the data, as the US-China trade-war, along with the continents ongoing structural issues, weigh on Europe’s economic activity. The Euro will be in focus around tonight’s data: markets are warming towards the prospect of rate-cuts from the ECB. A deteriorating outlook for the German and European economies could increase these bets, and sap the shared currency; while a better than expected print would likely fuel its recent pop higher.
    Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
  19. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount AS51 DLX AU 21/06/2019 Special Div 40 HSI 857 HK 20/06/2019 Special Div 2.729 HSCEI 857 HK 20/06/2019 Special Div 2.729 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  20. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 10 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RTY TPCO US 11.06.19 Special Div 150 RTY CFFN US 13.06.19 Special Div 25 RTY CWH US 13.06.19 Special Div 7.32 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
       
  21. MaxIG
    Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: The overnight session was, on balance, positive for risk assets, though the conviction behind market-moves was missing. The S&P500 – the natural barometer for market-mood currently – experienced a middling day. It’s closed more-or-less flat, having made a failed foray higher throughout Wall Street trade, to have sold off right-below crucial resistance at 2800. For the bulls in the market, circumstances didn’t fundamentally change last night. The short-term trend is pointing to the downside, with momentum clearly holding in that direction, too. The 200-day moving average is acting as a magnet for the index now, seemingly keeping the market neutralized until the next market-moving catalyst. 

    News-flow thin, ahead of a busy week next week: And at that, this week has very much been characterized by that general theme: for all the risks, and generally bad news, in the world, a thin data week has deprived market participants of fresh-trading fodder. There has been high impact news and events, it must be said. But much of it doesn’t relate to the news that markets are watching for to either driver the present trend further, or inspire something of a trend-reversal. A lot of that is due to the time of the month, but even still, given the heightened tensions in markets, one might have expected a little more substantial news-flow.
    Fears building still in the market: Indeed, there are trade-war headlines floating around the traps, and of course it’s that subject that’s responsible for equity markets’ global pullback. However, for better or worse, US President Trump – the man whose words (or Tweets) matter most – has been conspicuously quiet about trade this week. So as-a-result, the prevailing trend of the last 3 weeks has continued unabated. Market participants are betting on a global economic slowdown, and feel little inclined to take risks. Stocks are selling-off accordingly, while bonds are going on a tear, as traders position for a deterioration in global growth conditions, and a subsequent need for central bankers to cut interest-rates.
    The counterbalancing factors: This general assessment of the state-of-play ought not to be considered catastrophic – at a minimum: not yet. There are reasons to be somewhat upbeat: earnings on Wall Street haven’t been revised aggressively lower in response to the perceived threat of the US-China trade war. Furthermore, the sell-off in global equities might just as much be due to a reversal in momentum chasing, after a time when stocks markets got bid very high. And at that, volatility could be chalked-up to uncertainty rather than a tangible change in fundamentals. No doubt, the chance that things could get worse from here is elevated, but not a certainty.
    Markets betting on rate cuts: There is also reason to believe global policymakers will cushion the blow of any material economic slowdown. And probably, this variable is where things could really shift. Markets are pricing that indeed the Fed, as well as many other global central banks, like the RBA, will cut interest rates aggressively in response to slower growth. The view point has certainly kept stock valuations attractive, and given hope to market-bulls that the global economy could perform a soft landing. This isn’t manifesting in price action now, but if earnings growth remains positive, lower rate expectations will keep underpinning equity market strength.
    Might the Fed save the day? And last night, optimism was massaged slightly that the Fed may be willing to support this attitude. US Fed Vice-Chair delivered a speech, in which he affirmed the bank’s view that the economy is in “a very good place”, but that the Fed is on standby to consider downside economic risks. That message, though moderate in its delivery, does mark a creeping dovishness in “Fed-speak”, which has thus far been absent throughout this market slow down. It can’t save the day forever, but for markets in the short term, knowing the Fed is on standby is a soothing notion.

    ASX to open higher, with China data in focus: The culmination of last trade’s trade will see the ASX200, according to SPI Futures, open 20 points higher this morning. It will only be a modest recovery, following a day where the market shed 47 points, on the back of some broad-based, trade-war fear related panic-selling. The ASX will be quite attuned, indirectly, to the trade-war narrative today. The major data release in the Asian session will be Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. What goes for the Chinese economy, goes for Australia’s. If the trade-war is seen to be weighing on Chinese manufacturing activity, expect fears to be ratcheted up about a worse-than-expect global economic slow-down.

    Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
  22. MaxIG
    Markets returning to normal trade: Traders in the US and UK returned to their desks overnight, and if price action is any guide, their verdict of the weekend news flow is “not much has really changed”. This isn’t to say the movements in financial markets in the past 12-18 hours have been ones of major conviction. Afterall, volumes are still light and the extent of the moves in price witnessed were modest. Nevertheless, despite what was notionally a tranquil weekend for financial market news, market participants have seen it fit to continue to take risk off the table, as if nothing has really changed at all.
    Risk-off still the bias: An assessment of risk-conditions finds merit in this notion. Yes, several risk events have been traversed since Friday, but none really provided the market with any reason to change existing biases. Fundamentally, the trade-war is still a growing problem, with sentiment finding itself sapped by the apparent intractability of that issue. Practically, no economic data has been released from any of the major economic powers since last week too, so markets remain mired in the perception that the global economy is on a soft footing. Perhaps a level of uncertainty is gone for now, however the balance of risks have seemingly remained the same.
    Indicators for global growth flashing amber: That’s resulted in some classic risk-off behaviour. Not that the moves were overly frightening, but they were stark enough to take notice. The conspicuous activity was in the bond market – especially US Treasuries. The yield on the 10 Year note fell 5 basis points to 2.26 per cent, which marks its lowest point in almost 18 months. The significance of that milestone is noteworthy, too, and perhaps a small marker of where markets are in the current cycle: the last time yields on 10 Year US Treasuries were this low, it was smack-bang around the time of President Trump’s famous tax-reform package in December 2017.

    An end of a cycle? Recall, it was the implementation of this massive cutting of corporate taxes that ignited the US economy, and by extension the US equity market. The dynamic fuelled market sentiment, and was a major catalyst behind the several record highs achieved by the S&P500 in 2018. Though only a crude measure, the fact the US 10 Year bond yield is back at where it was at that stage of history speaks volumes of current market perceptions. Markets are anticipating a global economic slowdown – an end to some small cycle – that will weigh on US growth, and probably force the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
    A split between the market and policymakers: In fact, such an attitude is being baked into rates-market pricing – an 80 per cent chance of a rate-cut from the US Federal Reserve is priced-in before year end. This view is deeply at odds with what the Fed has flagged to the market in all its communications so far this year. Regardless, perhaps somewhat like the beginning of this year, whereby a breakdown in financial conditions more-or-less halted the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle, markets are assuming the Fed will again be bent to its will. And this is where the risk lies: if markets have got this wrong, heightened volatility is the (almost) certain outcome.
    Bullishness is absent right now: The problem right now, as it relates to risk assets, is that rather than solid earnings that’s propelled US stocks to its most recent record high, it’s been a lowering of interest rate expectations that’s really been responsible for bring about that phenomenon. Perhaps, this is what’s making the current pullback in the S&P500 so worrisome. Discount rates keep falling, just as they have been all year, however US equities remain in a short-term downtrend. The signal is that markets are positioning for an economic slowdown, at least just right now, brought about by the deterioration in trade-relations between the US and Chinese governments.
    Stock market softness persisting: As such, the S&P500 sold off in the final hours of US trade, pushing that index to psychological support around 2800, and bringing closer the completion of a much-watched head-and-shoulders pattern for that index. A caveat here: the action could be something of a manifestation of end of month flows. But judging by market activity in Europe too, where stocks also dipped, the lion’s share of this price dynamic does look attributable to a significant risk-off sentiment. It’s something that will apparently plague the ASX200 today, too: SPI Futures are pointing to a 44-point drop at this morning’s open.

    Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
  23. MaxIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 27 May 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RTY WMS US 31/05/2019 Special Div 1 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
     
  24. MaxIG
    A choppy week ends generally flat for Wall Street: Global stocks ended the week on softer footing. But if one narrows their attention to just the S&P500 as the bellwether, the past 5-days culminated in only a 0.76 per cent fall. Trade continues to dominate sentiment on a macro-scale. The US-China trade-war has deteriorated considerably, with positivity in the market currently being sustained by some vague hope that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines of June’s G20 meeting to discuss trade. A total reversal of tariffs between the US and China looks increasingly unlikely however, so markets wait now for the new trade-barriers detrimental consequences to manifest in market fundamentals.
    Risk appetite is waning: Intraday price action on Wall Street somewhat reflected the loosening control buyers have on this market. After a spill at the open, the S&P500 grinded higher throughout trade to turn positive on headlines that the US would be removing steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It proved to be cold comfort for market participants, however. Volatility edged-up throughout the session, US Treasuries gained very slightly, and the S&P500 shed 0.58 per cent, capping off a day which witnessed a marked flow out of risk-assets, and into safe-haven assets, wherever they could be found.
    Price-action looks ominous for the S&P500: The set up for US stocks is beginning to look quite interesting – and relatively ominous. The general view is that Wall Street equities have remained quite resilient, even somewhat calm, in the face of greater trade-tensions. However, given the possible impacts of slower global trade, maybe this is simply the calm before the storm: the quiet, underground evacuation of smart money from the market, before the herd attempts hastily to catch-up. The S&P500 looks to be taking something of a head-and-shoulders shape after Friday night’s trade, portending that another new-low may be in the making for the market in the short-term.

    How do market participants react to more ScoMo? Turning to the ASX200, and markets with an Australian focus, and despite Friday night’s weak end for European and North American stocks, the ASX200 ought to open 5 points higher today. The interest today, of course, will be on picking up what effect the weekend’s election has on local markets. Financial markets move on surprises: things that weren’t prepared for in advance. Such was the favouritism of the Australian Labor Party to take Saturday’s election, market participants, overall, had positioned their expectations for that party’s victory. As is well known, that outcome has not materialized, so interest turns to how market-pricing repositions from here.
    Australian Dollar gaps higher this morning: Looking at the Australian Dollar as the first cab off the rank, it has gapped higher this morning, to have climbed by as much as 1 per cent, in early trade. While ostensibly a tacit endorsement of the Coalition and their economic agenda, the trading dynamic is probably more a reflection of a “buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact” situation. That is: one small unknown is removed from the market, and price has adjusted to reflect this, in something of a knee-**** reaction. The phenomenon, therefore, would probably have been observed even in the event of a Labour Party victory, and is probably not representative of a shift in fundamentals.
    ASX200 to begin week on shaky footing: Watching Aussie bonds and rate markets today will be a better barometer for how markets view the economy as-a-result of the Coalition’s election victory. However, given the big issues driving the macro-economy currently, most of which originate from beyond Australia’s shores, the ultimate consequence will be probably be tantamount to short-term noise. Given the lift in the Australian Dollar, and dwindling global-market confidence, the ASX200 may find itself stifled at the outset of this week’s trade – especially after a hot day’s action on Friday, which saw roaring iron ore prices ignite buying activity in mining stocks, and temporarily drove the ASX200 to new 11-year highs.
    All interest in the reaction of bank shares: The key to today’s trade will probably rest on the banks. As a sector, the financials arguably have most to gain from a Coalition government, given that policies like capital gains tax reform, negative-gearing reform, and (to a lesser extent) changes to dividend imputation will no longer be forthcoming. Rightly or wrongly, the banks had suffered from the expected implementation of these policies. To illustrate: the financial sector’s 12-month high came a day before last year’s Coalition leadership coup, after which market participants generally shied from buying banks on the expectation (at the time) that that event had handed government to the Labor Party .

    Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
  25. MaxIG
    Stock markets continue to recover: Global stocks have maintained their bounce. It’s looking more like a market that is searching for it’s next high now, as price action, from a technical perspective, suggests the recent wave-lower is over. Hence, from here, considering trade-war risks, and therefore anxiety in the market, remains high, the matter becomes whether stock indices are preparing to pop in a new higher-high, or whether what we will see is a new lower-high. The result of that simple binary will inform market participants what the broader trend is in the market: are we still trending higher, or are we seeing the start of a trend reversal?
    The litmus test to come: This commentary pertains primarily to the S&P500, which has been the bellwether for global equities, recently. But it could equally be said of the ASX200, too, which demonstrated its resilience yesterday. Just sticking to the S&P500, the price set-up offers some potentially interesting insights about the world, in the weeks to come. Another high for US stocks is another record high and a clear continuation of that market’s bull run – defying, really, what is a deteriorating global backdrop. If this fails to occur, then talk will certainly emerge whether stocks are beginning a prolonged period of weakness, in line with clearly softer fundamentals.

    The signs of nervousness: Time will tell, of course, and all manner of things can change this underlying dynamic, in the long term. However, as it relates to the here-and-now: though the tension eased in Wall Street and European trade, safe havens are still in vogue for investors, currently. US Treasuries have pulled back overnight, but yields have kept close to their recent lows, and traders have flooded into the US Dollar. German and Japanese bonds are still in negative yield territory, removing some of their haven appeal, however the Euro, Yen, and (at that) the Swiss Franc are still broadly catching a bid.
    Trade-war keeps escalating: Conspicuously, gold prices are lower, but that’s a function of the much stronger greenback, while commodity prices have generally rallied across the board. That behaviour probably belies yesterday’s news flow, which was preoccupied with another small escalation in the US-China trade-war, after US President Donald Trump paved the way for sanctions on Chinese mega-company Huawei. The dynamic probably manifested in global-growth sensitive currencies more than anywhere else.  The Nordic Currencies, the Canadian Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and our own Australian Dollar continued to sell-off overnight, on the presumption that Chinese economic growth will be further stifled by US trade-aggression.
    Australian jobs data disappoints: Speaking of the Australian Dollar: it registered a new low in the last 24 hours, and is now cosying up with the 0.6800 handle. The driver was yesterday’s local employment numbers, which was probably, on balance, a negative one overall. On the plus side: jobs growth exceeded expectations and the participation rate moved a little higher. But crucially, the unemployment rate climbed, and the jobs added to the economy last month (according to the data) were predominantly part-time jobs. Also underquoted, but perhaps more importantly, was a big tick-up in the underemployment rate, which rose from 8.2 to 8.5 per cent.
    The problem with the jobs data: So: this is the kicker, as it applies to the jobs data: the problem the market sees in the numbers doesn’t directly stem from the unemployment rate or jobs change numbers per se. The ****’s in the detail, and the details suggest that considerable spare labour capacity exists in the Australian economy, at-the-moment. Crucially, for financial markets, this means one thing: that the long pined-for lift in wages growth is unlikely to be forthcoming. By extension, this likely means further weakness in inflation, and probably consumption too, which, if left unmanaged, will drag on economic activity moving forward.
    The need for economic stimulus: Hence, it’s this general perception that has driven traders to price in a fifty-fifty chance of an RBA interest rate cut next month; and also, price in a full cut by July, as well as more than another full cut on top of that by year end. This development comes at a fortuitous time, too. The election is upon the Australian electorate, and promises from both sides of politics to adopt stimulatory measures, by way of income tax cuts and major infrastructure spending, is giving hope that the government can juice the economy just enough to guide it through this current soft patch.

    Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia

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