WallStFoxy

@Bell A great day for bulls on the Dow & the Dax but take a look at my H1 chart of the Dow and tell me if you're going to hold a long overnight.

@Bell That's a bit like betting the same horse will come first and last I don't get that.

@Bell A quick look at the monthly shows 11650 as significant support, I think that and a new Month could explain today's Bullish mood. April very Bullish, May very Bearish, June?????? it may be the worm has turned but it's worth waiting out a day to be sure because if 11650 breaks on the Dax I think it will go down like the Titanic.

@Bell I've had second thoughts on that, I'm out for the day it's too risky to buy @ this level in this trend, I'm going to wait and see if we go short overnight.

@Bell I think 25200 may have a chance on the Dow with 12000 ish on the Dax. Missed the train this Morning couldn't get in the station for stampeding Bulls, Looking for a pullback, good chance at the open of Wall St.

@JLZM1999 Maybe but I find it best to wait and see how it looks at the end of the day, there could be an attempt at 12000. I think the first two or three pullbacks will find buyers.

Hi @Bell I Felt sure 11800 was the floor on the dax now I look stupid, this is not good for bulls. Sure I was selling the highs like a bear but I was following the correction at 11800 I turned Bull, more fool me!!! Now we have to get back above 11800 to even think about a long.

Tomorrow is Friday and the last day of the month, let's see if that can stir the bulls.

Dji looks pretty close to the bottom of its channel.

Ha a drop to 11850 and then bounce may be a stop hunt!!

So not a double bottom then!!

Dax Support is at 11855 and could be a double bottom. Lets wait and see!!!

Heads up we have just bounced off the long term Bull channel at 11880 a rally from here could be big so 11880 could be Pivotal.

This is a great question because the answer is about market behaviour and so few people ever talk about market behaviour. The same thing happens over and over again you have a great trade then suddenly a spike finds your stop and bounces back in a whipsaw action then runs on for the rest of the day and you miss out yet you were right about the move, it's so common to some degree it happens almost every day. so many people move the stop to protect their trade but that only stops the loss still missing the trade so next thing they remove the stop altogether and that's it, this time there is no whipsaw the market runs and runs against you 20-50-100 points or as much as you can bear until you've had enough and finally stop out, you know what happens next it turns back and runs all the way back to your entry point. The result of this makes people nervous and in the end, they don't trust the market or themselves. The truth is when they were whipsawed out there stop was in the wrong place but their position was right, when the market kept on going it was correcting it's earlier move and it's uncanny how often the point they stop out is the end of the correction and the very point they should be looking at re-entering their position. Then as ever, there is the really big move it starts at 01:00 in the morning and never looks back till 21:00 your sat waiting for that spike back from 08:00 but it never comes and you miss the big one yet again. There is only one answer that is to know your market and its behaviour patterns and to know when to take a profit and when to take a loss. Things happen at certain times of day if you are expecting these moves it helps you keep out of trouble and learn how to cut losses and let those profits run

@Mercury That's a very elaborate way to say, you agree with me. Your Elliot waves always look very cool and as ever great charts.

@Bell Either way, The DAX looks good to me a drop below 11800 should open a trap door and deliver some great shorts but if for some reason we get a bounce 12500 looks good on the long side, sounds like a win-win from here.

@Bell So long as 11800 holds firm we may see a rally on the Dax.

@Mercury If you are struggling to see the time frame on the chart just click on the chart for a full view.

It's a fair question but my lines are mostly based on the short term so for me, they're bang on. Here's a better view, but anyway it's done the job well.

Starting to look like a fakeout!!

Fake out or Breakout?

@Bell Yep I'm with you on that, so long as we don't get a rally above 12150 then 11400 has to the target.

Ok got ya, the gap has to fill. So are you bullish in mind of the upper gap or bearish in mind of the lower gap? Personally I think to far to fast, but I follow inter day trends so I bend with the trend Day to Day.

@Mercury If there's no rally tonight I suspect there's real fear in the markets and this bear market will be in for the summer. both oil and equities are at serious support levels and a further sell off from here would be very bearish.

You are so right about that. So many people have bearish personalities even after 100 years of history they find it hard to get bullish after a correction, just one reason why around 80% of trades loose their shirts dealing on the markets, but let's not get to far ahead of ourselves, I'm looking forward to Thursday morning before I start to crow about the bulls being back this could just be a correction in the bear trend, if this sells off overnight I'm a Grisly again.