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THT

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THT last won the day on October 12

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  1. Stopped out - await the new new moon date Closing in on Breakeven - this is what trading is about, we don't know the sequence of wins or losses DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  2. or set-up a scan to do all the hard work for you Nothing is new in the world of trading, its only what you don't know - everything has been looked at, tested and is out there The link below has tested a lot of candlestick patterns + much much more - I've not looked at it in detail for 10 years now so can't comment on its viability: http://thepatternsite.com/
  3. It all depends on how you trade - If you trade candlestick patterns then you need candle sticks shown, if you trade other formations then you need whatever displays those formations best
  4. Yep I could, I prefer bar chart though - although saying that at certain times pin bars are handy to see when they form at some levels
  5. You get more "noise" intra-day, that doesn't mean you can't be successful - I personally don't trade anything other than daily charts, predominately because I'm a lazy trader and don't want to be tied to a screen all day, I'm happy to pay fee's - but my holds are for days not months, if I were holding for weeks/months I'd probably trade an ETF in an ISA/SIPP The whole industry is geared up to relieve novice traders of their capital Most people can't use and don't use Indicators right in the first place - if a method works and that includes Indicators then they will work on any timeframe
  6. There's more noise on Intra-day timeframes but they all do the same thing at the end of the day only more frequently There's no perfect setting for stops - its what suits you through trial and error, testing etc I work off Daily charts
  7. This is subjective as it solely depends on your trading method and reason for the trade When a swing low happens, it provides a line in the sand - if the market is trending UP then the prior swing high HAS to be closed above - its the LAW of the market (see chart below for proof) Now you can SEE that once that happened the market retraces to create a new swing low point - there's no law regarding how much it will retrace, its just a given that it will retrace some degree - YOU need to work out what you're OK with If you look at the chart - the LAST up swing from 11th Aug 2020, you'd be crazy to have left the stop at the last swing low - If you examine the last up swing carefully, you will SEE the mini internal swings (highs and lows) within that structure that would have allowed you to place stops on and markets do not go on rising at an angle like that for long
  8. You have to take what the market gives you, as that is impossible to know in advance you have to have a target and / or risk management strategy for trailing a stop - that's up to you to decide and fathom out what suits you Using a larger position and then dumping part of it at specific target points is perfectly fine and it can turn a losing position into a winning one to a certain extent Take the chart below - This is a PERFECT swing trade run and I can confirm that I'm on moves like this all the time in my other accounts At the green line you would NOT have known that a trend was starting - BUT as a trader the set-up was typical of the start of a trend, so you take the trade Stop 1pt under the swing low point (green line), then you let the position just run, moving your stop to the last swing low point until stopped out As you can see the red line would have stopped you out - you would have got back in around the red line too, for the last sections Look at the points that resulted in - having set targets would not have got that result, which is why you need to have a set-up/method and stick to it (you can pyramid on EVERY swing low point too) Obviously the below ONLY happens when the market trends - it goes skew-wiff in sideways markets The main USA markets are skewed naturally to the upside - just take a look back from 2009 low to see how true this is and how much one could have stripped from the market using a set and forgot with a tiny tweak every now and then the chart below is the daily Nasdaq100 Every night I run a SCAN on my charting software that looks for Elliott Wave, Waves 2 - that scan picks up markets displaying the below formation to the green line - this formation is Gann's Secondary Reaction Kingfisher Plc had a pretty good run too of late as it works on stocks too To confirm a swing low the market HAS to CLOSE above the prior swing HIGH - then and only then do you move your stop to the most recently confirmed swing low point less 1pt and so on until stopped From a risk point of view on the Nasdaq100 this would have been 160pts and would have taken 2 attempts to enter, being stopped out on the 1st attempt - if placing stop under the reaction low point at the GREEN line it would have cost you 210pts in risk to make 2947 points This is a R:R of 14R using the 210pts as initial risk All you have to do is test EVERY EW 2 or Gann secondary reaction you find, so will work like this and others won't - BUT the ones that DO outweigh the others The one thing you should see is that WHEN the market does as expected after the 1st entry bar it does NOT retrace backwards to the high of the entry so as another safeguard you can shove your stop to breakeven virtually straight away or just below the high of the entry bar - up to you Then IF you're stopped its a very early indication that a trend might not be in play etc I'm willing to bet most people don't make 14R from a trade too The below set-up will only be achieved by the ultra patient and disciplined as most people can't simply wait My 15 son traded this in his child trust fund this year
  9. I do - I try to get to breakeven asap and then the pressure is off
  10. EWP does NOT work - They've been calling for a top and decline to near 0 since 1986!!!!! Certain things in EWP do work though and can be used to profit from the markets Again there's a massive myth about Fib Rets and Ext's - sometimes they work, often they don't, that in itself tells you something is amiss - but again they can be used to profit from the markets I would look at the 50% ret level which is not a fib level, its a gann level - Hence why the market came to a smack bang stop around that level in the 1960's, 70's, 2003 and 2009 If all you ever did was trade Elliott Wave 2's which are in fact Gann's Secondary reactions (gann wrote about them 1st) you do rather well
  11. As our very old friend WD Gann said "4th Time at a level and it often goes through" Same with the FTSE100 Index yesterday - bingo
  12. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO This is how I view Risk - If my account value is £x then the max per trade I'm prepared to lose is 2% of the £x - lets say the £x = £2,000 The the most I'm risking is £40 per trade I take (The £ value of this 2% changes as my account goes up or down) Then on the market I'm trading for ease, say Entry = 100p and I ascertain that my stop needs to be at 90p = 10p range of risk Then the £ per point is simply = £40 / 10p = £4 per point Read Dr Van Tharps - Trade your way to Financial Freedom - it explains the laws of probability and probabilistic returns - these laws CONTOL things when you trade, they cannot be avoided You need to build into your mind a mechanical emotionless setting everytime you trade - it should not matter whether you win or lose, the way I do this is I take the trade happy to take a loss Depends on your method too IF (and most traders don't know this) you know the exact stats of your method over many many trades then you could just trade a fixed £ risk amount and know that at some point it'll come good if you take a series of losses one after the other
  13. Stopped out again DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  14. totally agree - It should be much more harder to open up an account Re: the SP500 compound calc - enter the dates Jan 1949 - Dec 1966 AND Aug 1982 - Mar 2000 Work out the annualised ret + divs and you should see the same return from Nov 2016 - Mar 2034 - somewhere in that range of % returns Markets work out a cycle of UP/DOWN sequence - to compare the DOWN sequence look at Dec 1966 - Aug 1982 AND Mar 2000 - Nov 2016 and you should see the % annual returns average for the DOWN sections From Nov 2016 we've been in official cycle UP mode and will continue to do so until 2034 - this will allow average Joe Trader to think they are brilliant stock pickers as the market drags them up, then in 2034.........It will start to unravel for them - obviously this period will be excellent for the buy and hold investor
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