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THT

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THT last won the day on September 23

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  1. @u0362565 Hopefully you've designed and thought about the trailing stop aspect by now - here's what I do Refer to the chart below and past price action - its not 100% and at some point you'll get caught out only for the move to work as thought, but that's trading for us! I've deliberately not focused too much on trailing stops in this thread as that's the part people need to think about for themselves and is a key aspect to winning in this game As well as those 2 trades the SP500 created a Gann Secondary Reaction on the minor swing #1 (blue) too - which hit target during yesterdays bar (last bar on the chart) for a 8R return and with hindsight! shouldn't of cashed out trade 2 on the minor 50% level at the prev swing high! SP500 Index:
  2. Exactly The FED was "created" in 1913 to prevent and stop financial stock market crashes from happening again in response to the 1907 rich mans panic - so far to date the FED has 100% failure rate
  3. I'd go with that - I'm working off the Interaction of the Interest Rate cycle and the Stock Market cycle - Stock turned Inflationary from a cycle perspective late 2016, from deflationary which started 2000, for that 16 year cycle everything deflationary has happened and the action to try to create inflation - Robert Pretcher (Elliott Wave International) wrote "Conquer the crash" in 1999 - although he is/was wrong on the stock market outlook, the rest of the book was pretty much spot on from a central bank/economic aspect tackling deflationary pressures etc From a cyclic point of view the stock market cycle from 2000 basically repeated the 1929 crash cycle, x cycles back in the same stock market cycle - last time BoE Int rates were depressed for 22 years was from 1929 until 1951 which coincided with said stock market cycle We've a generation of people who think Interest rates are always this low! the shock should be in the property market and especially anyone with a Buy to Let Investment property that has got a bad/poor yield as well as mortgaged to the hilt - they'll more than likely see negative returns once taxation and costs running it are taken into account, which will be good for FTB's as they'll have a nice supply of affordable housing stock to pick from as the rise to normality for Int rates should then cause a dip in the property market (possibly) Different rules apply to the markets during deflationary and Inflationary cycles and you find that central banks aren't on it in terms of getting it right which is why they got caught out in 2003 / 2009 and now with Inflation to which they [BoE] should react to Inflationary pressures by raising rates even though we all know for some time Inflation has been occurring Fun times
  4. I've had 2022 in my diary for years - based off cycle analysis Inflationary pressures at the end of the cycle are nice to see to confirm thinking (not on the wallet I might add!) - I'm not an Interest rate trader, but if the cycle is working/worked then from 2022 it'll be a gradual rise back to 5-7% territory If I had to hang my hat on it I'd say up to those levels by end 2023 / 2024
  5. OK - makes sense now I trade multiple methods that i trade and 2 triggered on the or around the 50% level through coincidence - I've cashed out the 50% trade as its hit and exceeded the prior swing high and done its job for me, the other trade is not something I've written about on here and its got a very wide stop so that one is live, but its not swing related When you enter a trade you need to know how you're managing it beforehand - at the very least you need to be break-even now There WILL be a pullback at some point, its impossible to know the degree/severity of it in advance so you need to work out either today or over the weekend how you manage it if you're aiming for the big swing high Don't get swayed by the £'s on offer if that gets hit - see some of the "reasoning" below and think, if during a year a market gives you 12 50% opportunities that each produce a potential for 5R at a 50% win rate and you just take 5R from the winners - then net you make 24R, if 1R = 1% of your account then that's a 24% annual return, say you trade 2 markets, then that increases to 48% return and so on- professional fund managers and peoples Investments typically only grow at 5-10% + divis per annum, so just getting average trading results still out performs 99% of people out there and you don't have to try to be a trading genius to do exceptionally well, taking a good portion works! You could use a moving average, calculation of ATR, eyeballing!, trailing 2,3,4,5,6 bar stop etc, use swing lows etc - theres no perfect solution out there, its what works best for you What you can't do is let a 5R profit turn into a loss, at the very very worse break-even OK - now you're out of the game, take a few hours over the weekend to think about trailing stops - if you plan to trade various methods, then it might be the case that all those methods need a different trailing stop method!
  6. Are you on this trade or the one from the swing low #c? What stop were you using in points? and make sure you do not give it all back, you have to walk away with something if it goes wrong - as you can see compared to normal this is a complex trade rather than straight forward When you took the trade what was the overall target point/plan? As you should stick to that, it does NOT mean the market will comply though
  7. Depending on how you traded this - here's another 50% level on the SP500 which has returned 4R in the past 48 hours Notice the indicators at the 50% level on Tuesday and Weds - 2 period RSI oversold on Tues with a tick up close of business weds = ultra high probability of a rally! If you wait for the Indicator to tick up you often miss the move - just showing how the Indicator and the method work to confirm each other Traders who traded the major 50% level at swing low #C as discussed in the posts above should have multiple R open profits FTSE100 right near the Triple top too!!!! This is all getting rather Interesting
  8. I don't think I've mentioned this on here - but the stock market in 2000 - REPEATED the 1929 cycle - a quick look at a chart of the Nasdaq100 from 2000 and the DOW from 1929 confirms this, as the formation is similar and as you'd expect, anyway............. The stock market cycle from 2000 has played out beautifully - anyway to cut a long story short - IF, the Interest rate cycle repeated along with the stock market then the following dates should be observed and so far to date it looks again as if it is playing out nicely 1929-1951 = 22 years 2000 + 22 years = !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wrote a thread on TIME CYCLES - the 1st post shows and explains the cycle and the sequence - backtrack this cycle and it hit 1929 too During the DOWN/DEFLATIONARY cycles you'll find that central banks throw the kitchen sink at efforts to stimulate things with little effect - the cycles down, nothing can stop it as its deflationary, BUT...... during the UP/INFLATIONARY cycles you find that price inflation, commodity spikes etc happen and the tools to combat that are Interest rate rises, tax rises etc etc etc I remember back in 2012 ish being told "Low rates are hear forever" by someone on some forum [not this one] - well lets see - I say rates will be back to 5-7% within the next 5 years [most likely a hell of a lot quicker] As humans, we have to position ourselves so that we are not burnt by adverse events, govts have proved they can't prevent crashes and the like PS - Stock Market - My expectation based on my analysis is its UP until the mid 2030's - obviously there will be plunges like 2020 along the way, but no major crash
  9. Yeah I know what you mean - people say the exit is key, but I'm of the opinion that its all equally as important as each other you're thinking right You always need to think that if the trend has reversed then bullish trades in a bearish environment/cycle don't work out as expected either, the prev bull run has definitely stalled - that doesn't stop us trading long though but it makes sense to have trailing stops just in case we're wrong - making 1R or a tiny 6 point loss is better than a few 1R losses - which get more than made up for when everything goes as expected Re the 50% level when the trends up price doesn't retrace much as you can see from the chart you posted and every high then forms a 50% of its own - so having a stop a few points under the ongoing 50% level daily is a logical place for it - wait for the day to close, then move it accordingly The problem with managing the trade is its impossible to be exact, so a tweak here, a tweak there etc which makes you second guess yourself Over the years I've left 10,000's of points on the table through managing positions averagely
  10. Hi This is the tricky part as this pattern happens - There's no guarantee the old high is going to be hit - market is taking a breather from the prev run[s] and price faffing around a 50% level isn't a bullish sign either, but if a trade entry signal has fired off then it needs to be traded/taken There's no perfect way - You could trade 2 units, sell one fast and the other has breathing space - doing this dilutes profits though, but it banks some profits quick / you could trail a stop up and be prepared for it getting hit and then price reversing / use a wider stop or you could just get the stop to break even fast and re-enter if the level is hit again You need to figure this out as to what you are comfortable with and only you know that and what you are willing to tolerate etc If you traded 2 units you could sell unit 1 at either 2 or 3 times risk - the risk on this market is about 15-20 points! for a tight stop, as you can see it hit that level on both bounces, then work out a trail rule for the remaining unit - most professional traders will trade more than 1 unit as they can bank quick profits rather than let them disappear - Sometimes I do this sometimes I don't! I absolutely advocate tight stops - even with multiple entries you can still make more than having a wide stop, but this just suits my aggressive attitude and trading nature - if you are comfortable with a wider stop then employ that method On the entry bar it closed well above the entry - you could of moved the stop up to 5 or 6 points of the entry level, therefore reducing the amount lost if stopped out and the 5-6 points gives room to reset an order on the level - this has the effect of minimising your average R loss value - whilst giving you max profit potential still - I employ this often and usually give it a couple of bars/days before trailing stop off When you're calculating the 50% level based on previous swings and not the one immediately prior (such as in this case) then you have to be prepared for a more complex correction coming into play - it is likely to be bigger in both TIME and PRICE than the previous corrections and with that comes possible less straight-forward bounces, so this is just something you have to keep an eye out for - WD Gann said "When a correction is greater in BOTH time and price than any correction in the previous trend - watch out for a change in trend" this doesn't often happen and Gann was not perfect on this quote, but it does slow everything down to allow the market to catch up which often results in sideways ranges etc I don't want to overcomplicate this for you - If It were me I'd trailing a stop up at a certain % from price, to get something from your troubles to start with, but be prepared to be stopped out once in a while and not get back into the trade - as you can see when it works it works - then you can look at more fancy stop placement methods that suit you going forward etc This is all subjective and applicable to ones personal tastes and what they can and can't tolerate - its the one area of trading you won't find a definitive answer on! If you're not happy giving back those paper profits then you need to devise some form of trailing stop or multiple unit method of trading to protect
  11. OKAY DOKEY Firstly the 50% level - nice 4R return from that trade (had to cash out Thursday as I don't like live trades when I'm away from the desk and went to Newmarket races yesterday/Friday - It was a day out and a get away from the office thing for me On the 50% level - just a reminder, this isn't my discovery, Gann mentioned it in the 1920's, others have published work on it in the 1970's maybe 1980's? (Not read so I don't know for certain, but its definitely been written about, I just haven't read as I got Gann's works and went from there) Markets nicely poised around the middle of the channel for both scenarios to be applicable! Lets see what the next 5 trading bars give us (if anything) Remember: As traders we trade probabilities NOT forecasts or predictions - PROBABILITIES - reading the market can allow you to form predictions and forecasts, but price action HAS to back those up for them to be traded
  12. Here's an update on the FTSE100 as mentioned above from Sept 20th Predicted bounce well and truly happened - Indicators foretold that move in conjunction with the pattern forming The Triple bottom didn't exceed swing LOW #2 - this is because we're not viewing price "square on" so we've got a very slight "twist" in price - so you need a method to catch it - this is why sometimes trendlines just don't work Price has now formed or nearly formed a Gann Secondary Reaction - this does not mean it will def work, there is a possibility that it could fail - hence stops and trailing stops must be in play at ALL TIMES We've got the Triple Top - Gann says 4th attempt on the same level and it nearly always goes through - we saw with Gold that this isn't 100% We've got a Triple Bottom too!!!!!!! We've got a channel/box formed - at some stage price has to break out of it somehow and at some point - again NOTHING in trading is 100% on the PRICE side, but at present the height of the box would be an initial price target if a Gann 4th Time Lucky breakouts out - the average of the swings is approx 400 points, so a target of 350-400 pts is not unreasonable - this is an Initial assumption and not a definite! It is perfectly fine for price to penetrate the levels a bit and then do something else Right at this particular point - I'm not using the Indicators - Indicators are great at turns, so I'll not mention them in context to this - just price formation This chart shows a bit more detailing Price on Friday just tagged the Gann 50% level and bounced!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As trader, we don't give a **** about which way the market moves all we do is get prepared for our outlook and trade it based on the probabilities So far the average trading days of the swings is 18.6 TD's - If you take out the swing high #1 to swing low #1 the average becomes 22.5 TD's - this is just something to consider/observe not focus too much on For those Interested the swing file size is 4% on this FTSE100 chart (So moves of 4% and more force the line to change colour etc) On a side note - you would be encouraged to run a 50% retracement tool from the lowest swing you can see on this chart to EACH of the swing HIGH points and see where the 50% level falls I'm proving time after time that the 50% level is very significant - its NOT a FIB level I'm not saying FIBONNACI doesn't work, as it does in the overall growth of markets, swings etc but as a one dimensional retracement tool its not the be all and end all that people tout and you can use the 50% level just as effective EURUSD - I'll do an update on that in a week or two as its moved into a position mentioned on Page 5 in the last update I did on it - that may or may not come to anything
  13. PRT has them available Understand the differences of MA's compared to volatility based lines/envelopes etc Jake Bernstein wrote about Moving Average Channels in the 80's/90's - MAC he calls it Good luck on your journey
  14. Lots in the news about the soaring price of Natural Gas - sometimes its important to put things into perspective (2nd chart) - Remember NO government can curb a market - Anyone notice their energy bills have increased all the time NG has been declining in price! Yep the energy game to YOU is and always will be rigged against you! Natural Gas ETF - NGSP It all starts with a Gann secondary reaction................................ This crept into my scans earlier in the year - this is NOT a one off they happen on many many other markets The absolute PERFECT scenario is: All time lows or 12+ month lows (Price) Gann Secondary Reaction from those lows As you can see a buy and hold Investor scanning the market for a Gann Secondary Reaction off long term lows will be able to pick a few decent trades over the years and massively grow their accounts you can work out how much this one has grown Long term daily chart - my personal household energy bills back in 2008 were'nt as high as they are today and NG's been declining all that time, something's, not quite right.................................my energy bills never fall only rise! Back to our friend Mr WD Gann - back in 1954 (1 year before his death) Gann produced promotional material for his courses, inside that material he very very briefly mentions "Cornerstones" - The market formation below is just that, a cornerstone - it signals a turning/reversal point - again it is ultra high probability in what happens afterwards - those who saw this formation and patiently waited for a Gann SR have been extremely well rewarded - the old saying goes "Buy low sell higher" Regardless of what Gann wrote about, the key here was the Secondary Reaction, anyone with knowledge of that set-up could of profited handsomely Notice when price corrected it "just" took out the prior swing low - this is what Gann referred to as "Lost Motion" or in plain English stop running - so this should teach you trailing a stop at the prior swing low might now be the best way to trail a bull market advance if its going to get going
  15. Oh yeah - trading is psychological warfare - you just need to see lots and lots of examples to form the mindset of "If this trade triggers, it should do this and NOT that" - That then lets you place stops very tight, which then gives you the R values - I know its hard, most professional traders can't and don't trade with as tight a stop as I do The trick is working out if the trade is a perfect trade what will the market NOT do - that lets you place your stop at levels that the market should not come back down to Take the gold trade above if that 50% level trade is right, the market won't come back down to the entry level, so you can get it to breakeven within a day of the trade and start trailing and if it does come back down to the entry level it will then trigger the set-up of another 50% level possibility - you just need to know the method inside and out which then provides the confidence to trade it - its then up to the market if it complies or not with our thinking, sometimes it does other times it doesn't, this is why as traders we accept lots of trades won't work out, some will and those that do, outweigh in terms of £ return the ones that don't work out So you need an initial stop rule, a stop rule if the markets sets off as expected and then another rule to trail - the trail can't be tight as that will stop you out - some of my methods use a 2 bar trailing low stop and others have a much wider trailing stop
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