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THT last won the day on July 1

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  1. Yeah I don't trade or look a the Dax - just the USA Indexes - but they move similar often Bouncing Bomb example is up in the thread - example on CNX1 which is the ETF of the Nasdaq100 that returned 29R Yeah I'm just trying to show all that the markets offer a lot of potential - I came across a pro trader selling courses and whatnot to his facebook followers saying 2% profit per month was the norm, if you get the R value right then you can easily make 5-10+% a month and at some point due to the compounding you get into a position where you don't actually need the money anymore and trading is about beating the market and getting one over it
  2. This just happened last couple of days: 50% bounce SP500 Index and another ABCDE Bouncing Bomb on Legal and General: Ignore the #1 and Wave 2 blue box references - no relevance to the Bouncing Bomb method at all, I didn't change the chart from a scan i did the other week I appreciate that when you are making a trade you can't see the right hand side of the chart or future price bars - this is where it comes down to knowing your method, having 100% confidence in it as well as the expectancy and why we use stops, some trades simply do not work THT
  3. Hi, I think you've jumped forward a swing - I'd view that as a double bottom rather than a 2nd 50% support level, but I see what you've done - the DB failed, then we got a triple bottom and that worked to a certain degree for a few R profit - the aim there would have been the swing high after #C but as you can see the market didn't comply Yeah I understand but the stop placement is the thick black line - it doesn't make any sense having a stop wider than that, you could but it would just dilute R profits Sit and think how making 2-3R compared to 8R+ the 8R+ trades offset all those tests that fail and the trades where the market does not comply to expectations I'm just a simple person, it took me a long time to figure and test and have confidence in the method On my charts I have multiple 50% levels of multiple ranges of significance that I monitor too, not saying that they offer any weight, but I like to see visually if multiple 50% levels are aligning Take 3 mins to study the chart of the SP500 Index below - Ignore the pink lines - look at the 50% levels - this chart alone speaks a thousand words, although it is advanced for this discussion: Time Cycle due Price falling down into the TC date Tags the 50% level of a prior major swing range Reverses Both counts / TC's One thing to note is based on historic price advances, its impossible for the market to advance at the angle of trajectory its made since the March 2020 low - its too steep, at some point there's got to be multi-month sideways stalling that forces the angle of advance more in line with it's average angle People think that Gann is obsolete as he operated in the early to mid1900's - but Gann cracked the markets I think this chart coupled with the charts above prove the power of the 50% Gann Gravity Centre and its relevance to the markets - I've also showed the 50% level on the 1974 / 2003 and 2009 bottoms when the market hit and reversed SP500 Index:
  4. Hi There's no daft questions in trading Do NOT place the order there in anticipation - it needs to be placed AFTER the 50% level has been penetrated, so that you catch the reversal upwards. If the market does as we expect The R value is way way more than 1:1 - I've had fantastic double digit R values off the back of this The move isn't always clean either so sometimes you might need 2-3 attempts for it to work The key to success is the high R value - don't be tempted to "give it room" If its going to work it'll work, if it doesn't then either the timing is wrong and it'll happen on the next couple of attempts or the 50% level has turned to resistance rather than support etc I'm pretty sure this has been written about by others out there, I just developed this myself after studying Gann's material Look at this recent one for Legal and General stock: Price gapped down, went down through the 50% level triggering an alarm, set a buy order, price just squeaked through the 50% level and then closed right near the 50% level - triggering the order a 2.5-3 pt stop was suffice for that (2.5 pt stop shown) As you can see it was plenty of room for the trade AND each of those pink lines = 1R, so you can work out what R you'd of made by whatever exit strategy you'd of used a trailing 2 bar stop would have made 10R Then the next down swing happened and hey presto another 50% level trade: This went down through the 50% level and then found support lower down which is totally fine, then reversed up 3 bars later, again tight stop and 9R profit I've shown the other Gann levels on the chart they have little relevance to price to highlight where price can fall and find support - there's a whole host of traders out there that think resistance levels are key, but they can't explain why price stopped dead at that level which is neither a Gann nor Fibonacci level, If you run the gann levels from the swing low on the chart below all the way up to #B then you will see that price found support on the 50% level of the entire range swing up (not the range from A-B) - the whole premise IS - IF price is bullish then it's going up through that 50% centre and should take out the prior swing high Then to the right of that chart you can see the swings weren't playing ball which is a warning of a potential change of trend etc We have in the space of 2 months on this one chart returns of 19R, lets say you cocked up and only made 12R for whatever reason - if 1R = 2% of account then that's a return of 24% unleveraged - all you've got to do is find a few more markets to be getting close to 100% returns There are many many people out there selling courses and what not telling you 2% a month is a typical return! In this entire thread, you have Gann's 50% level, Secondary Reactions, Double/Triple tops & Bottoms, 4th Time Lucky, Inside swings, lost motion, bouncing bomb ABCDE and the rules to successful trading - I know for an absolute fact that combining and trading those methods on liquid fluid markets can return triple digit % returns every year
  5. Shows up perfectly when swings are placed onto the chart
  6. OK - this is one of my methods, I have more I trade for different market conditions, if there's an established trend in place I'll look for trending set-ups and I'll also look for this on pull backs because it shows up often I said this before if a method works it is guaranteed to work on every single time-frame and liquid market out there - EVERYONE of them as long as the market is freely traded and liquid I trade a handful of markets, because I don't need to waste time searching for new opps all the opps will show up in the course of a year on the markets that i trade - you don't need to be trading everything I prefer to trade the 50% method in bullish markets as you get more umph for your buck, but it can be used in sideways ranges too - see charts below Lets say that the markets going UP - it hasn't happened yet, but that's what's its going to do following a decent correction/swing low whatever- the market at some point will rally, pullback and then rally again, how much the pullback is, is not known, but that is what its definitely going to do without fail if its going UP - this is what we call an absolute or a given - so all you have to do is devise a plan of action to get in on that trade - how much it goes up by we don't know, hence trailing or having a target Experience helps a lot here too - in the charts below from swing high #2 I was very very wary of the markets because of the Time Cycle I was watching out for (which never came) so from #2 I just took profits when price showed it was fading (the inside days) - as you can see a triple top formed (Gann says "Sell Double/Triple Tops") so I was highly wary of the Triple top wiping out accrued profits, if a triple top formed (which it did) (I can't short that ETF either in my account but they were good double/triple tops to have shorted) The ABC pattern is just a fundamental law of the market, it's been present since the markets first started trading and it will be there present until markets stop trading - on every market - people say there's no givens or absolutes in the markets but that is one right there - if the trend is going UP, then that formation will be present - This is the WEEKLY chart of GBPUSD Forex pair from the 1980's - ABC formation present and correct for both UP trending markets and Down trending markets - nothing is new in the markets, its there for you all to discover if you look properly I'll show you 3 50% recent trades on MIDD which is the ETF of the FTSE250 Index - details on chart:
  7. Hi - Yeah sure, let me explain: @ #1 it did land on prior support - see chart below - but they don't all do this, sometimes you're left in limbo! Squeaked through that as a lost motion entry , if you missed this then as a low point the next best entry is Ganns Secondary reaction (detailed below and in multiple posts on this thread in the pages above The upswing from 1 to a = @1 the rally was the pre-curser, the pullback retraced to the Gann 50% level of that rally, I bought on price rallying back up through the Gann 50% level and I was stopped out on the bar marked a as it took out my trailing stop. If on the price swing you refer to 1 to a, the rally and then the pullback in the middle of that up swing, 98% of bull markets start just like that - this one failed and ended up being a double bottom (which I also bought), but - the whole trade was profitable as i had 2 long trades on throughout and won Not shown on the chart is a 50% level from the prior swing down to #1 that fell in the region of #a where the market reversed - this was not of the entire 2-1 swing down it was of the last leg of the swing down Yes exactly - We don't know what the market is going to do in terms of price, there's no absolutes on the price side, so optimistically you should think prior swing high as a target and always trail a stop up to protect if you're wrong - often we'll be wrong! So in this case the aim was prior swing high #2 (red), stopped out on trailing stop, bought back in at the DB, I mention elsewhere on the Gold thread the significance of the 2011 line, stopped out on trailing stop there and I reversed the position to short once the technical aspects for the short were in place (a-b on chart) Chart below shows fuller picture - Blue line = prior highs/tops for which #1 and #2 found support along with the 2RSI which backed up the thinking I've also circled in pink another low that bounced from prior highs/top - there's no sequence as to which tops/highs will provide support so you need to have some form of system in place to enhance that judgement and you could test with a small % then pyramid later on as the trading thinking is confirmed (if its confirmed) I'm a precision trader - you don't need to do this to make money from the markets, so don't think this is the be all and end all, I post to show you some of the reasons markets turn, reverse and move etc- some people it will sync with, others it won't because of how peoples brains see things Apologies if some of the above doesn't make sense, I've been interrupt a few times whilst writing this post
  8. I posted the other week on a GOLD thread - Here's an update with HUGE educational detail Most RECENT down Swing - price finds support on the swing high (black horizontal line) - this is another one of Gann's methods, still works today! Gann might not have been the first to say this but as his courses were published over 100 years ago he's pretty well up there - anyway, 2 things: Price declined to an old high and The 2RSI was <25% This signals a "potential" bounce/reversal whatever you want to call it You could have set a buy order at or just slightly above the black horizontal line once price broke through it, to catch the anticipated bounce (Because we KNOW price could bounce from that zone, not guaranteed but we KNOW prior old tops/highs could provide support, its a valid reason to place an order at or above) OR you could have waited for the close of the bar and then placed a buy order 1 point above the HIGH of the low bar (this is the bar that penetrated the old top) this would have then been moved down to the high of the next bar as it was not triggered, this is the Inside bar and next bar of which was triggered the following day You would also KNOW that if the thinking here is correct then price isn't going to take out the low of the swing low bar so that's where your stop logically goes - on EITHER entry Obviously the stop on the old swing high is tiny in comparison to the other entry method, but both trades work Notice the railway tracks formed here too! IF the old swing high/top was not there, I'd be entering on the bar high method, but as it was there, its too much of a profitable opportunity to not have a test at Now once in the position the target is the previous swing high labelled 1, however, you have to be mindful that: You could be wrong or Resistance levels could play a part I'm sure you're aware of the resistance levels out there - I use a a combo of Gann levels and Fibonnaci but the gann levels override the fib levels for me and the 50% level is the main level for me The main resistance level is the 50% level or as Gann called it 100 years ago, the Gravity Centre You'd run the resistance levels from the swing high to the swing low that gives you the top Red 50% line (the lower 50% red line is from the previous swing low to swing high labelled 2 green to 1 red and that level is there to see how price reacted around that gravity centre once price declined to it As we can see price faltered at the 50% level this was actually 1 point off the perfect level - 2RSI was overbought and showing divergence to the prior ob level, with the range of that high bar into resistance small it was a half decent shorting opportunity if the LOW of that high bar was taken out, which it was - This set-up is ultra high probability for a 2R return often more depending on the size of the swing, if price had of edged up through the 50% level I would have employed lost motion as the entry technique rather than the bar low method Now price has found support and bounced off the 50% gravity centre of the prior up swing prev mentioned - this poked through 2 points lower than the 50% level and then rebounded upwards, another buying opportunity Gann mentioned and I've detailed above something called "LOST MOTION" - Gann never detailed lost motion other than in his quote shown in the posts above - but this is what he meant, both the buy at the prior old high and this last 50% purchase are both examples of lost motion in the markets Remember if we're right price is NOT going to hit your stop, we don't know what is going to happen for certain, so everything is a test We are now at a decision point for GOLD - one of those 50% levels will win I don't really care which one wins, I'm not predicting - all I'm looking for are tradable opportunities The whole premise of this post is: Methods from over 100 years ago are still highly relevant and profitable in todays markets - the reason is that the LAWS of the markets will ALWAYS apply, discover the LAWS and you'll know what to expect No-one can successfully predict every turn of the market, it is simply impossible to do consistently, so you have to have methods to "steal" little bits from it and have the patience to wait until they show up You should be able to see that using lost motion as an entry method can bring huge R profits, not shown on this chart You can very successfully use Indicators to trade from/with, in conjunction with other methods, as shown right throughout this thread WD Gann's basic form reading methods still yield big profits to this day and always will because they are built around the laws of the market If used correctly these methods have the potential to return very healthy returns, far greater than buying and holding
  9. THT


    Close to entering the range of the prior major swing low point Will the market find support at this double bottom? Indicators on the higher time frame WEEKLY chart and the daily chart are BOTH <25% and technically "oversold" All I know is the market is in a zone for a possible long reversal, watching for a set-up - It might happen, it might not, no-one knows for certain here, we could be going lower, we could be reversing to form a triple top, then it could reverse to form a triple bottom range zone etc - Trade what you see not think though, never guess (that does not mean you'll always be 100% correct though! - as sometimes we are simply right but early) No-One needs telling that a double bottom reversal here with a target of the prior swing high represents a huge R profit if it comes off Often these swing highs and lows are magnets for future swings
  10. That's above everyone's pay grade - funds/ETF's have to meet FCA approval to be allowed to hold within a tax efficient wrapper/vehicle - to avoid people buying into unregulated Investment houses and funds which then "suddenly" cease trading taking everyones cash with them, other factors are used but its really to safe guard investors investments
  11. I know exactly what you are saying, unfortunately there's a huge number of you out there and always will be - If you can come to me and say listen I've read almost everything out there and tested it, then you cannot say there are or aren't any givens in trading, because I'm afraid there are a couple and that's because many years ago I actually spent years reading and testing most of what was out there - so my "absolutes" come with 1) research, 2) physical testing and 3) no guessing Now I've not actually said what the absolutes are and I never will to a public forum, but when someone comes to me and says there are no absolutes in trading when I know that they are simply wrong, I will correct them I have never listened to hedge funds, fund managers or business news since 2009 I don't take things personal - don't have the time or the patience for the drama - I had the exact same attitude years back, if you weren't a professional trader, trading your own money for a living then I wasn't interested a jolt what anyone said about the markets, because as 95% end up failing, their thoughts, opinions and posts are basically a load of tosh based on what they think, not what they know
  12. CNX1 Trade closed out last Friday as the trailing 2 bar stop was hit - for a 29R profit THT smashes out well over a 100% return on this one instrument since march 2020 (Its closer to 150%) - LONG ONLY - trading the methods in this thread and applying the rules to real life trades Buying and holding right from the low in March 2020 to last Thursday would have returned 89% which is not bad at all (no-one would of been capable of doing this precisely though), but that's a bit risky for me as it could quite of easily been 20% or 15% or 25% profit- you NEVER know WD Gann said:
  13. Oh you're one of those types There are a couple of absolutes in trading - I never said this TC was one of them, in fact I said it was least likely to work out of all those I'll show - but some of them shown in charts above are absolutes so far to date in 227 years of stock market history with a 100% hit record I'll give you credit for trying, as 10 years ago I was of the opinion there were no absolutes in this game too
  14. THT


    Price from last week, did as expected - is the 50% resistance level going to restrain the market or not? I am long but strong weakness around the 50% level and I could be short - I need more price daily prints to make that decision We now have a bullish WEEKLY Indicator and an overbought DAILY Indicator - "IF" price corrects on the DAILY chart in a minor fashion and the Indicator tanks, that's BULLISH and I'd expect higher prices once the Indicator makes a bullish reversal - an alternative is that price makes a strong correction @ the 50% level (NOW!) and the Indicators follow suit If the latter happens reassessment is needed - NO professional trader in the world knows for certain what is going to happen Notice how price fall last week reversed when it hit the swing high of 18th March 2021 - prices often find support/resistance at prior swing highs/lows due to the magnetic attraction of prior tops/bottoms - drawing a horizontal line shows this A break of last Tuesdays swing low point is not bullish, however, a higher swing low point would be
  15. THT


    Still waiting for the correction - As mentioned above this should be within the next few weeks, seen as we're working off the WEEKLY chart WEEKLY chart: DAILY chart: RSI is over extended in the OB zone - this does not mean price will fall - BUT at some point the WEEKLY chart is going to correct which should bring a correction on both charts of some degree - obviously the daily chart will register first Deep corrections open up other opportunities, a minor bull market correction allows you to get in on the trend at cheaper prices
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