Jump to content

THT

Community Member
  • Posts

    391
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

Everything posted by THT

  1. OK - makes sense now I trade multiple methods that i trade and 2 triggered on the or around the 50% level through coincidence - I've cashed out the 50% trade as its hit and exceeded the prior swing high and done its job for me, the other trade is not something I've written about on here and its got a very wide stop so that one is live, but its not swing related When you enter a trade you need to know how you're managing it beforehand - at the very least you need to be break-even now There WILL be a pullback at some point, its impossible to know the degree/severity of it in advance so you need to work out either today or over the weekend how you manage it if you're aiming for the big swing high Don't get swayed by the £'s on offer if that gets hit - see some of the "reasoning" below and think, if during a year a market gives you 12 50% opportunities that each produce a potential for 5R at a 50% win rate and you just take 5R from the winners - then net you make 24R, if 1R = 1% of your account then that's a 24% annual return, say you trade 2 markets, then that increases to 48% return and so on- professional fund managers and peoples Investments typically only grow at 5-10% + divis per annum, so just getting average trading results still out performs 99% of people out there and you don't have to try to be a trading genius to do exceptionally well, taking a good portion works! You could use a moving average, calculation of ATR, eyeballing!, trailing 2,3,4,5,6 bar stop etc, use swing lows etc - theres no perfect solution out there, its what works best for you What you can't do is let a 5R profit turn into a loss, at the very very worse break-even OK - now you're out of the game, take a few hours over the weekend to think about trailing stops - if you plan to trade various methods, then it might be the case that all those methods need a different trailing stop method!
  2. Are you on this trade or the one from the swing low #c? What stop were you using in points? and make sure you do not give it all back, you have to walk away with something if it goes wrong - as you can see compared to normal this is a complex trade rather than straight forward When you took the trade what was the overall target point/plan? As you should stick to that, it does NOT mean the market will comply though
  3. Depending on how you traded this - here's another 50% level on the SP500 which has returned 4R in the past 48 hours Notice the indicators at the 50% level on Tuesday and Weds - 2 period RSI oversold on Tues with a tick up close of business weds = ultra high probability of a rally! If you wait for the Indicator to tick up you often miss the move - just showing how the Indicator and the method work to confirm each other Traders who traded the major 50% level at swing low #C as discussed in the posts above should have multiple R open profits FTSE100 right near the Triple top too!!!! This is all getting rather Interesting
  4. I don't think I've mentioned this on here - but the stock market in 2000 - REPEATED the 1929 cycle - a quick look at a chart of the Nasdaq100 from 2000 and the DOW from 1929 confirms this, as the formation is similar and as you'd expect, anyway............. The stock market cycle from 2000 has played out beautifully - anyway to cut a long story short - IF, the Interest rate cycle repeated along with the stock market then the following dates should be observed and so far to date it looks again as if it is playing out nicely 1929-1951 = 22 years 2000 + 22 years = !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wrote a thread on TIME CYCLES - the 1st post shows and explains the cycle and the sequence - backtrack this cycle and it hit 1929 too During the DOWN/DEFLATIONARY cycles you'll find that central banks throw the kitchen sink at efforts to stimulate things with little effect - the cycles down, nothing can stop it as its deflationary, BUT...... during the UP/INFLATIONARY cycles you find that price inflation, commodity spikes etc happen and the tools to combat that are Interest rate rises, tax rises etc etc etc I remember back in 2012 ish being told "Low rates are hear forever" by someone on some forum [not this one] - well lets see - I say rates will be back to 5-7% within the next 5 years [most likely a hell of a lot quicker] As humans, we have to position ourselves so that we are not burnt by adverse events, govts have proved they can't prevent crashes and the like PS - Stock Market - My expectation based on my analysis is its UP until the mid 2030's - obviously there will be plunges like 2020 along the way, but no major crash
  5. Yeah I know what you mean - people say the exit is key, but I'm of the opinion that its all equally as important as each other you're thinking right You always need to think that if the trend has reversed then bullish trades in a bearish environment/cycle don't work out as expected either, the prev bull run has definitely stalled - that doesn't stop us trading long though but it makes sense to have trailing stops just in case we're wrong - making 1R or a tiny 6 point loss is better than a few 1R losses - which get more than made up for when everything goes as expected Re the 50% level when the trends up price doesn't retrace much as you can see from the chart you posted and every high then forms a 50% of its own - so having a stop a few points under the ongoing 50% level daily is a logical place for it - wait for the day to close, then move it accordingly The problem with managing the trade is its impossible to be exact, so a tweak here, a tweak there etc which makes you second guess yourself Over the years I've left 10,000's of points on the table through managing positions averagely
  6. Hi This is the tricky part as this pattern happens - There's no guarantee the old high is going to be hit - market is taking a breather from the prev run[s] and price faffing around a 50% level isn't a bullish sign either, but if a trade entry signal has fired off then it needs to be traded/taken There's no perfect way - You could trade 2 units, sell one fast and the other has breathing space - doing this dilutes profits though, but it banks some profits quick / you could trail a stop up and be prepared for it getting hit and then price reversing / use a wider stop or you could just get the stop to break even fast and re-enter if the level is hit again You need to figure this out as to what you are comfortable with and only you know that and what you are willing to tolerate etc If you traded 2 units you could sell unit 1 at either 2 or 3 times risk - the risk on this market is about 15-20 points! for a tight stop, as you can see it hit that level on both bounces, then work out a trail rule for the remaining unit - most professional traders will trade more than 1 unit as they can bank quick profits rather than let them disappear - Sometimes I do this sometimes I don't! I absolutely advocate tight stops - even with multiple entries you can still make more than having a wide stop, but this just suits my aggressive attitude and trading nature - if you are comfortable with a wider stop then employ that method On the entry bar it closed well above the entry - you could of moved the stop up to 5 or 6 points of the entry level, therefore reducing the amount lost if stopped out and the 5-6 points gives room to reset an order on the level - this has the effect of minimising your average R loss value - whilst giving you max profit potential still - I employ this often and usually give it a couple of bars/days before trailing stop off When you're calculating the 50% level based on previous swings and not the one immediately prior (such as in this case) then you have to be prepared for a more complex correction coming into play - it is likely to be bigger in both TIME and PRICE than the previous corrections and with that comes possible less straight-forward bounces, so this is just something you have to keep an eye out for - WD Gann said "When a correction is greater in BOTH time and price than any correction in the previous trend - watch out for a change in trend" this doesn't often happen and Gann was not perfect on this quote, but it does slow everything down to allow the market to catch up which often results in sideways ranges etc I don't want to overcomplicate this for you - If It were me I'd trailing a stop up at a certain % from price, to get something from your troubles to start with, but be prepared to be stopped out once in a while and not get back into the trade - as you can see when it works it works - then you can look at more fancy stop placement methods that suit you going forward etc This is all subjective and applicable to ones personal tastes and what they can and can't tolerate - its the one area of trading you won't find a definitive answer on! If you're not happy giving back those paper profits then you need to devise some form of trailing stop or multiple unit method of trading to protect
  7. OKAY DOKEY Firstly the 50% level - nice 4R return from that trade (had to cash out Thursday as I don't like live trades when I'm away from the desk and went to Newmarket races yesterday/Friday - It was a day out and a get away from the office thing for me On the 50% level - just a reminder, this isn't my discovery, Gann mentioned it in the 1920's, others have published work on it in the 1970's maybe 1980's? (Not read so I don't know for certain, but its definitely been written about, I just haven't read as I got Gann's works and went from there) Markets nicely poised around the middle of the channel for both scenarios to be applicable! Lets see what the next 5 trading bars give us (if anything) Remember: As traders we trade probabilities NOT forecasts or predictions - PROBABILITIES - reading the market can allow you to form predictions and forecasts, but price action HAS to back those up for them to be traded
  8. Here's an update on the FTSE100 as mentioned above from Sept 20th Predicted bounce well and truly happened - Indicators foretold that move in conjunction with the pattern forming The Triple bottom didn't exceed swing LOW #2 - this is because we're not viewing price "square on" so we've got a very slight "twist" in price - so you need a method to catch it - this is why sometimes trendlines just don't work Price has now formed or nearly formed a Gann Secondary Reaction - this does not mean it will def work, there is a possibility that it could fail - hence stops and trailing stops must be in play at ALL TIMES We've got the Triple Top - Gann says 4th attempt on the same level and it nearly always goes through - we saw with Gold that this isn't 100% We've got a Triple Bottom too!!!!!!! We've got a channel/box formed - at some stage price has to break out of it somehow and at some point - again NOTHING in trading is 100% on the PRICE side, but at present the height of the box would be an initial price target if a Gann 4th Time Lucky breakouts out - the average of the swings is approx 400 points, so a target of 350-400 pts is not unreasonable - this is an Initial assumption and not a definite! It is perfectly fine for price to penetrate the levels a bit and then do something else Right at this particular point - I'm not using the Indicators - Indicators are great at turns, so I'll not mention them in context to this - just price formation This chart shows a bit more detailing Price on Friday just tagged the Gann 50% level and bounced!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As trader, we don't give a **** about which way the market moves all we do is get prepared for our outlook and trade it based on the probabilities So far the average trading days of the swings is 18.6 TD's - If you take out the swing high #1 to swing low #1 the average becomes 22.5 TD's - this is just something to consider/observe not focus too much on For those Interested the swing file size is 4% on this FTSE100 chart (So moves of 4% and more force the line to change colour etc) On a side note - you would be encouraged to run a 50% retracement tool from the lowest swing you can see on this chart to EACH of the swing HIGH points and see where the 50% level falls I'm proving time after time that the 50% level is very significant - its NOT a FIB level I'm not saying FIBONNACI doesn't work, as it does in the overall growth of markets, swings etc but as a one dimensional retracement tool its not the be all and end all that people tout and you can use the 50% level just as effective EURUSD - I'll do an update on that in a week or two as its moved into a position mentioned on Page 5 in the last update I did on it - that may or may not come to anything
  9. PRT has them available Understand the differences of MA's compared to volatility based lines/envelopes etc Jake Bernstein wrote about Moving Average Channels in the 80's/90's - MAC he calls it Good luck on your journey
  10. Lots in the news about the soaring price of Natural Gas - sometimes its important to put things into perspective (2nd chart) - Remember NO government can curb a market - Anyone notice their energy bills have increased all the time NG has been declining in price! Yep the energy game to YOU is and always will be rigged against you! Natural Gas ETF - NGSP It all starts with a Gann secondary reaction................................ This crept into my scans earlier in the year - this is NOT a one off they happen on many many other markets The absolute PERFECT scenario is: All time lows or 12+ month lows (Price) Gann Secondary Reaction from those lows As you can see a buy and hold Investor scanning the market for a Gann Secondary Reaction off long term lows will be able to pick a few decent trades over the years and massively grow their accounts you can work out how much this one has grown Long term daily chart - my personal household energy bills back in 2008 were'nt as high as they are today and NG's been declining all that time, something's, not quite right.................................my energy bills never fall only rise! Back to our friend Mr WD Gann - back in 1954 (1 year before his death) Gann produced promotional material for his courses, inside that material he very very briefly mentions "Cornerstones" - The market formation below is just that, a cornerstone - it signals a turning/reversal point - again it is ultra high probability in what happens afterwards - those who saw this formation and patiently waited for a Gann SR have been extremely well rewarded - the old saying goes "Buy low sell higher" Regardless of what Gann wrote about, the key here was the Secondary Reaction, anyone with knowledge of that set-up could of profited handsomely Notice when price corrected it "just" took out the prior swing low - this is what Gann referred to as "Lost Motion" or in plain English stop running - so this should teach you trailing a stop at the prior swing low might now be the best way to trail a bull market advance if its going to get going
  11. Oh yeah - trading is psychological warfare - you just need to see lots and lots of examples to form the mindset of "If this trade triggers, it should do this and NOT that" - That then lets you place stops very tight, which then gives you the R values - I know its hard, most professional traders can't and don't trade with as tight a stop as I do The trick is working out if the trade is a perfect trade what will the market NOT do - that lets you place your stop at levels that the market should not come back down to Take the gold trade above if that 50% level trade is right, the market won't come back down to the entry level, so you can get it to breakeven within a day of the trade and start trailing and if it does come back down to the entry level it will then trigger the set-up of another 50% level possibility - you just need to know the method inside and out which then provides the confidence to trade it - its then up to the market if it complies or not with our thinking, sometimes it does other times it doesn't, this is why as traders we accept lots of trades won't work out, some will and those that do, outweigh in terms of £ return the ones that don't work out So you need an initial stop rule, a stop rule if the markets sets off as expected and then another rule to trail - the trail can't be tight as that will stop you out - some of my methods use a 2 bar trailing low stop and others have a much wider trailing stop
  12. Here's a quick update on the MIDD FTSE250 ETF trade I mentioned a few weeks back on page 5 of this thread - all the trade info is back there for trade entry details etc This one exited the other week for a 12R profit unleveraged on the original initial trade from the low You could have bought the breakout too!!!!!!! Its now come back to form option B shown on the original chart - Option C is STILL a possibility, but its showing signs of option B at the 50% Gann level AND at the old tops which often provide support Charts bullish still - Target here is previous swing high unless stopped out on trailing stop - stop is 10 pts which is 50% of the 20 period ATR +1 pt for good luck
  13. This is what you want to see price wise from a 50% level GOLD 50% trade as mentioned above in a post - Blue line is entry, stop is now 5 points under the entry level - before I close off tonight the stop will be 1 point in profit and then I'll reassess it tomorrow - could collapse overnight you just don't know, but the target is the swing high used to calc the 50% level
  14. @u0362565Yeah, there's a saying that the markets can remain irrational far longer than you can stay solvent! - remember 50% levels will NOT hold in a trend break down or a change from bull to bear market, so you have to be prepared for losing trades, that is just the cost of doing business in this game - which can be very frustrating - the key is identifying and remembering lack lustre periods as they are forming, this just comes with having losses and experience I'm afraid - this is the only good thing about paper trading a method, so you see how it works in all market conditions and learn from it in real time Yeah I try to keep my charts to a min line wise, it can confuse you and as you've highlighted, shove enough lines on it 1 will catch a fall which if you don't have a winning trading method based on that line is pointless watching the line These are the SP500 levels of the LAST GREEN up swing - this is a 4% swing file - If none of these hold, then the bigger picture needs to be rethought - which needs to be high consideration as we need a decent correction and possibly a sideways range at some point - I can't write any updates this weekend, but I plan to do a recap of most markets as we've had and having some interesting swings of late - as it stands at this moment only the last minor swing low has been taken out, which is bullish, future market price action can wreck that outlook quickly though! Price action at the 1st 50% line is not bullish - price action should resemble the ABC minor swing as soon as C hit the 50% level it rebounded nicely, this allows you to confidently get your stop to break even fast - I often leave the trade a few hours, then move it to the 50% level less 5 points, that way if you are stopped out your 25 point initial stop gets reduced to 5 points fairly quick as long as price action rises, and if you're stopped out it gives you room to set the next entry attempt etc - we don't like faffing around key levels, if its going to work I prefer it to work out, price that hesitates is not respecting the 50% rule. When a prior swing low is taken out things change, will have a new up green swing emerge at some point and that is the basis from which to take market information from - the dynamics of the previous trend have now changed, to what extent we don't know, but they've now changed
  15. OK FTSE100 over the past week or so - Daily chart Triple top caused the decline - target IS/WAS the swing low labelled #2 (see tip below) From the TT market fell, found support at guess what? A Gann 50% Gravity Centre - shown you enough of these to prove they work - If the level IS going to work price does NOT faff on or around the level for more than a couple of price bars, the faffing of the last weeks price action suggested the level was redundant When you get clear sideways price action that can form a neat box around it [box not shown] then you can set buy and sell orders at either ends of the box with a target of the size of the box height either way, that was hit to the short side We now have a Triple Bottom formation - As it stands right now, the WEEKLY chart Indicator is oversold, the DAILY chart Indicators are oversold - this shouts that a bounce of some degree is highly probable/likely once a formation shows up IF a Triple Bottom is happening then the Initial target is the high or see hint below - of the triple top swing point, if that does happen, then it will ALSO be a Gann 4th Time Lucky attempt and we'd expect price to go through that point - as we are making an assumption before a bottom has actually been confirmed this might be wishful thinking, but it's what is going through my head as possibilities Regardless of what actually does happen - there's a bounce of some degree going to happen, this bounce may or may not yield further information on trade potential going forward - That bounce should happen sometime this week and possible into next - This bounce ideally will form a Gann secondary reaction as that is a rule and a condition of ultra high probability of higher prices, anything other than a clear cut gann secondary reaction is a warning REMEMBER I am only expressing my thoughts - price action might be ultra bearish and just collapse, if this happens then most of the above will need to be reassessed and evaluated based on price action of the market, but as it stands at close of business 20th Sept, the above is all relevant until price action proves it wrong You can place a box around this sideways movement of the past few months back to MAY '21 as any bounce which produces the swing file line to print (this is a 4% swing file), will also trigger the potential for a Gann 4th Time lucky SHORT trade - if price action does NOT print the 4% swing file line then the short gann 4th time lucky is STILL a potential - but its nicer when everything fits I'll keep you up to date as we have multiple markets moving into possible trade positions HINT: If you've followed this thread, you KNOW swings sometimes EXCEED a prior swing point or Come very close to the previous swing point but just SHORT - It is perfectly OK to have your target at the CLOSE of the previous swing point in question, this is often higher than the low and just observe how often the market reaches the closing price of a prior swing and then turns! You could have the target anywhere on the price bar that formed the price swing low point, but often the high to close of that swing low bar will catch the reversal turn - applies to swing high points too REMEMBER - we're NOT looking at price action "square on" If we were, all those arches would be pretty similar and massively tradeable - price twists its way through our vision on a 2 Dimensional chart, hence all the just "exceeds" and just falls "shorts" swings make Indicators and price "bounces" - when watching an Indicator and a price bounce, the price bounce HAS to be bullish and relevant in accordance to the Indicator - Look at the prior swing lows #1 and #2 - the bounce followed by the small retracement of the bounce gave you the heads up - this rally and retracement were Gann Secondary Reactions! If when the Indicator turns bullish price is lack lustre such as price action on the 50% line of the past week, it is a warning that the reversal is not on - We KNOW that with the right Indicator settings and when the trend is bullish, price and the Indicator follow nice bullish rhythm's, anything different and its a warning and remember that PRICE rules over Indicators Swing low point #2 - Take a retracement tool of the bull upswing up to swing high #1 from the low of upswing (this upswing was a Gann Secondary Reaction trade too) - price stopped over 1 pt, 1pt! of the Gann 50% level of that swing - the stop would have been 30 pts to make a potential 370 points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or 12R Remember we cannot predict these turns will definitely happen, that is impossible, but we do know if they do happen then make many R profits and that they do often happen, which is why you have to walk in front of the bus as very few traders have the **** to be buying long as the market tumbles
  16. If you go to pro real code website - look in the library it might be there, if not ask Nicholas to create what you want/need, if its a 5 min job he'll do it for free and make available to the whole library, if its complicated then he'll charge you, but he can create and you can then import it into PRT
  17. OK lots happening in the markets this week - not going to have chance to write up every market, so I'll keep on with EURUSD and GOLD EURUSD: Minor double top which stopped the advance and stopped out the long from the swing #2 low off the trendline - Price has caved through the 50% level (1st attempt provided small profit) Outlook = the 50% level is STILL an active level - we are also approaching and have to consider the prev green swing lows as we are very close to that being a possible triple bottom to bounce from and then we are also near and close to black triple bottom territory - just below the black line is the weekly 50% level [not shown] So apart from the gann 50% level - looking for potential reversal set-ups around/near the previous lows - for me these long poss trades take precedence over shorting at this stage On a more higher level, "IF" a swing low forms without the swing low of #2 green being hit or exceeded then it's technically a bullish gann secondary reaction or Elliott Wave 2 formation with an initial target of the prior swing high #1 and the red swing high #2 still as ultimate potential target also remember that the expectation from a double top is the target is the prior swing low - so if that double top performs to that expectation it will invalidate the secondary reaction option and form a triple bottom Remember to survive and thrive in this game, if the market changes the outlook you have to change too, unless you'll be left holding positions for reason A when the markets no longer working out to reason A!!!! - This is a huge factor in why people fail to win in this game, you have to have multiple outlooks, no preference and just trade when a set-up appears, most people like to be right and as we can see this market is in a multiple possibility position, which most people can't compute GOLD: We have had an unusial and rare minor quadruple top, the expectation there was for a gann 4th time lucky to happen, but it didn't, the reason for this was that the double top possibility was stronger than the 4th time lucky potential - market has caved to the 50% level of the prior swing and triggered a gann 50% trade as it rallied back through it - this level is in a tight zone from the previous swings labelled a/A Outlook: We have an active 50% trade - the expectation from this is a rally back up to the prior swing high which was a confirmed double top too - I didn't mention this previously, so I', hoping those watching carefully are picking up things (I don't mention everything!) - the DT worked and shorting it to the 50% level IS [was] a valid trade - take 2 mins here and think, long if the gann 4th time lucky trade triggered, if it failed, then we could potentially have a double top which you can short - this is absolutely acceptable thinking - you trade with the market, forming pre-conceived hard and fast ideas can stop you trading profitable trades - remember the market is in charge, we just piggy back along it OK so if a rally happens from the 50% level, it will form a triple top possibility, so you need to be aware for a reversal at that level - This is NOT guaranteed to happen and price could go straight through and upwards If price continues to drop then it will approach a triple bottom - again it does not have to do this, but more often than not the following happens, it will form a gann 4th time lucky attempt on the lows and more often than not price goes through that level so the expectation is to short it at that level and more often than not when price crashes through a 4th time lucky point it then retraces back towards that level for it to then continue down It is also perfectly possible for the market to create a quadruple bottom as we have seen of the recent highs, a gann secondary reaction / Elliott Wave 2 too - so like the EURUSD market we have to be open and flexible in our thinking and trade only when a confirmed set-up appears Like anything don't trade other peoples plans, trade your own methods and set-ups once you fully understand them and have tested them thoroughly Trade at your own risk and THT cannot be held responsible for other peoples trading The purpose of this thread is to show you how swings interact and from which very profitable trading methods can be established from those swings of the market THT
  18. No probs Easiest way on the WEEKLY would be to buy an option if you're after simplicity Then you just buy the option in the appropriate direction and leave until it runs out of time (expires) or gets close to target and just sell it, then you don't have to faff with a trailing stop - but its not quite as lucrative as spread bet as many factors affect the overall price of an option - it is possible to buy an option hit the price target in the time of the options life and only make a few R profit instead of multiple high R profit!
  19. Sat on multiple R profits, not necessarily taken them - The trades solely off the DAILY time-frame - although the trade has now hit trailing stop Its now in a Gann 50% level set-up! As it stands the last major swing high is still a target, it'll now take another trade to get back into it - we can't expect it to just go straight up although that would be nice - but price action going forward might NOT go any higher, we have to be open to that happening - as the days/weeks unfold the market will form additional swings which will either be upwards, sideways or downwards, which should then give us a clue - right now NOTHING contradicts the original target expectation, but that could change in a day, a week etc However, if new swings show up that give us other formations we trade then we have to take note and re-assess, it is perfectly possible that in say 2 weeks time price action tells us that the target swing high is no longer an option/in play etc - as a trader you HAVE to be able to just say "OK the original target is no more" It would be beautiful if the market just went up to that prior swing high top but we can't control that outcome - just know that as it stands its still in play and that over the years targets like this HAVE worked and produced fantastic profits, but they don't always work Yeah I didn't want to talk too much about time frames as you can definitely mix them - and when everything lines up they make for absolutely fabulous trades, the below is based off WEEKLY and DAILY time frames but you could trade DAILY and say hourly etc I doubt most people understand different time-frames (those that write stuff etc) The stop on the higher TF will obviously be greater than on the short TF I definitely trade the SAME formations on a WEEKLY timeframe too, in addition to DAILY charts, they take longer to form, but the profit from them is often greater - to complicate matters, it is also perfectly acceptable to be trade 2 different directions 1 long and 1 short on different timescales! As you might have an up formation on one TF and a short on the other TF! What I would do is master the DAILY timeframe, then look to other time-frames Look for the other formations not shown on the chart - swing #1 up to #1 - there's gann secondary reactions, a Gann 50% / swing #2 up to #2 - there's Gann secondary reactions, a Gann 50% / Swing #2 down to #3 - Gann 4th Time lucky - remember on the weekly charts these moves are of hundreds of pips To conclude: Although when a set-up forms and triggers the target is always the prior swing point in the direction of the trade, its not guaranteed to hit it or get close to it, more swings could print that then invalidate the assumption and you have to reassess, hence why we have trailing stops in play The perfect market movement is shown in the chart above from swing low #3 - virtually rallies upwards to the prior swing high - markets don't always do that though as swing #2 up to #2 show The stops would be greater in pips/points on the higher TF than they are on the smaller TF Set-ups form inside the swing too which can be traded as has been shown on the weekly chart above - these are highly likely to show as actual swings on the smaller time frame chart which as a trader you could trade off that chart and have a target from the higher TF chart etc You have to be flexible enough to completely change opinion if the market prints price action contrary to what you think/expect - the markets always right, fight against it at your peril or learn to go with the flow and rhythm of it Every Saturday I load my charts, 1st stop I look at the WEEKLY chart to see if anything is/could be forming, If it is I make note of it and potential target level, then I drop down to the DAILY chart and do the same on there, If I take a trade on the DAILY chart it's targets are set by the DAILY chart and if I take a trade off the WEEKLY chart then its stops targets etc are set by the WEEKLY chart - that's juts how I like to trade to keep it as simple as possible for my little brain! and you might have 2 trades on the same market but on different TF's etc Hope makes sense - If not ask as I've been interrupted a couple of times whilst writing this Sounds like you're soaking it all in Good Luck THT
  20. Couple of updates on some the trade assumptions in the above posts: 1) EURUSD - sat on multiple R profits and a 1-2 hundred pip move for an initial risk of only 30 pips! - trailing stop in play - the entry was the high of the LOW bar in the EURUSD example shown above it can be done! Target is still the major swing high 2) GOLD - so far so good, the break through of the minor triple top hasn't happened, it still could, time will tell, but I wanted to show you that sometimes a quadruple top (very very rare) can form, as you can see that price level is somewhat significant for whatever reason - I'm in a wait day by day view now as it could go either way, so probabilities are much lower now on expectations, the Gann 50% level could work and there's still the triple bottom (major swing) possibility - just let the market show you its hand and if a set-up triggers it triggers, if it doesn't, I don't trade 3) GBPUSD - DB worked as mentioned, not yet hit target, but we've now had a gann 50% level too for multiple R profits - DON'T be afraid to trade another strategy inside another method, the original method might NOT be right REMEMBER we can't control the market, we can't dictate moves, we anticipate moves and trade accordingly - even governments can't control markets Go back through this thread, look at the entry, stop positions, think about trailing stops and or profit targets then work out R values - you should be able to see what type of returns are possible per market per year because as you can see these swings are formed many many times throughout a year, not all of them are tradeable, but lots ARE
  21. I think the USA are coming it from a "Its a threat to the US$ and reserves" point of view as if they (the people behind the FED which is not the USA citizens) adopt digi currency then it needs to be able to be controlled by those controlling the US$ now - Which they simply won't go down without a massive fight as if they lost control of the US$ they'd lose a huge amount of debt, reserves etc I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying the FED will do everything in its power to stop it or they'll want to be the main ones creating, issuing and managing it as they current are the worlds official reserve currency - which if they don't could lead to WWIII or something like that! This a quote that President Woodrow Wilson said shortly before his death: "I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men." Before 1913, those group of men tried everything to force the govts hand to create a federal reserve to no avail - also back in the UK during the napoleon wars in France, 1 family who is part of that small group of men, had "runners" observing the war, so that when it was clear which side [France or Britain] had won, they'd get back to the London markets to buy sell appropriately in huge quantities! Now I don't want to stir anything up either, but those men he refers to are owners of Americas big banks and financiers and if you research the FED in-depth, you'll find that all past Chairpersons of the FED are all of one particular religious faith, which although nothing wrong with that, shows that the job is pre-destined to a person of the same faith as those controlling the FED and who the FED tell the govt to nominate etc, so basically the jobs a set rigged affair which is scandalous in a "free nation", which then isn't obliviously that free! My own personal view of crypto's are they are a tradeable market at present (although I just personally chose not to trade/Invest in them for no other reason than its another market to look at) - As a currency I personally think it needs to be backed by gold to be a valid currency and I doubt there's enough mined gold out there in the world to back a major reserve currency etc and the money laundering ease of using crypto's will need to be addressed by govts Saying that if the US$ were forced to convert every $ out there into its asset back value in Gold, I doubt there's enough gold in storage to be able to honour the payments - which is most likely why the stock take/Inventory for Fort Knox isn't Independent no freely available I'm in a position where i can sit on the fence and watch, at present the market is purely speculative BUT as a currency there's the opportunity for a big player to get involved and try to force out the US$ which is were the fun and games might lie going forward due to the above information I've highlighted - I think one of the main risks is the use of digi currency on the black underground market, govts just won't let happen, they'll end up regulating it or something and that could cause it to plummet in value Lots of If's, buts and maybes! fo me though until its a trustable market to trade I won't be diving in , I think powell at present is talking it down to avoid it rivalling the US$ or gaining ground as such - then all of asudden we'll have a digi currency backed by the USA which they are now happy with which will then be "the" digi currency to own, unless China get there first!!!!!! Whatever, happens, I'll still trade the SP500, FTSE100, FTSE250, EURUSD, GOLD and Corn, Soybean etc as per usual
  22. I don't really watch it or keep up with it, until the USA allow it to happen under their control or China forces through a reserve digital currency I'm not joining the party
  23. To date NO government/country has ever managed to prop up their currency - if its collapsing, its collapsing - The buying didn't seem to be effective in halting its fall."! As for BC - Keep saying it will only happen ~"IF" the USA /FED lets it - Last paragraph above confirms that, as soon as BC becomes main currency it threatens everything those who conned the world in 1913 strove for, they ain't letting it be main currency without getting repaid every trillion $ outstanding plus some Lots of pro traders are advising people jump into it - I'm not one of them, it'll prosper as a trading vehicle but just my personal views, the FED will put up one hell of a fight if it tries to become the worlds currency If the FED can work out a way to prosper from digital currency then they'll launch something Just my views, not backed up by anything other than observation over the decades and a little research into the FED as an entity
  24. Yep - I'm writing threads to disprove the statement - most of it is click bait to keep the masses thinking the article authors have a clue
  25. Good luck on both counts - my only comment would be to always remember most of what is published out there is complete baloney, so bear that in mind when researching Most fund managers fail to beat the Index they compete against and most trading strategies don't have a positive expectancy BUT all that being said you can still win, but very very few people who try do, there's always room in the 5% club though for new members On the trading front - test test test trading methods, make sure they have a positive expectancy and just robotically trade, no emotion, nothing, trade appears take it, manage it totally robotically - the method needs to know when to take the trade, how to manage it and how to exit it with little thinking and absolutely no emotional thinking
×
×
  • Create New...