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Everything posted by THT

  1. That's the EXACT reason I posted my NEW MOON post - I was going to flip a coin but as I couldn't be bothered to I just opted for it to trade long every new moon - They KEY of the system is the money management and I'm willing to bet it beats 99% of traders and Investors out there most years over 20/30 years Try trading randomly on paper for 12 months - Flip a coin 1st trading day of every month (heads = go long and tails = go short @ the open - set a stop that is a % of ATR/volatility and a target that is 4+ times the risk I've had in the past about 30 losses in a row in my early days - but i was trading multiple methods and it's dead easy to have 10 in a row per system especially with too tight a stop loss! Drawdowns are parts of all trading methods - you have absolutely no idea in what order the wins/losses are coming in - so its best to know your numbers and assume all the losses are coming one after the other
  2. 1 last post - couldn't help myself!!! Simple 1 x 1 Gann Angles projected from the high/low price points - I'll admit that this is ultra advanced trading stuff here, the message here is two-fold The markets regardless of what you think or have been told are NOT random, they HAVE no choice but to work out a pre-set course according to their growth or decay Gann Angles are far far better at identifying support/resistance levels - BECAUSE the market or specifically price action is NOT 2D, we can clearly see price conforms to a grid system movement - that ain't 2Dimensional! You could blindly trade those gann angles if you have the right level of expertise and knowledge of them - look at the blue circles - price rallied then fell back to them and bounced pretty accurately, they won't all work and the highest swing high is under threat at which you can't project further levels from Again here's the secret of success - you could of skewed the R value into your favour by having a 20/25pt stop underneath, trailed a stop and made fantastic R value returns Gann said over 100 years ago "Markets are financial points of force and that EVERY low/high is connected to another low/high point of force in the FUTURE, as well as in the past" As you can clearly SEE - he was absolutely right - very few people look at the markets right, when you do you see things completely differently to most other traders/investors There's some real science behind markets moves - I might do a post in future months as understanding what is actually going on helps you see through the fog and makes things a bit clearer I'll admit I've studied Gann for years and it is not easy, it is very hard to grasp - he hides hidden messages in his course that can throw you off for months and when you to apply his methods some just do not work
  3. John is one of the nicest people I have ever met - Best thing I ever did was buy him a coffee at the London Traders expo in 2011 (ish) and get him to sign a copy of his book, as the 10 min conversation that followed for the price of a coffee before he took to the floor was enlightening.
  4. This is my 2% swing file on the FTSE100 Index: Thought I'd show this as its messy! As you can SEE - there are multiple 2 higher lows that just did NOT work for one reason or another - this is why money management is crucial However, when it did work - the results were (profit target of 240pts, stop of 25 pts = 9.6R) If 1R = 2% of account then you're up 19% in 4 trading days Now the smart ones of you, will be asking yourself "How often does this happen in a YEAR on a DAILY chart?" The answer is go and look - This is the water, I've led you to it, it's now up to those that want to win at this game to investigate Oh and YES, there are many more ultra simple trading methods in a year on a daily chart with these sorts of R profit value returns - the SP500, Nasdaq100, FTSE250, FTSE100, EURUSD etc etc etc all produce OPPORTUNITIES per year that return you 100%+ and nearer 300% PER market - Nothing more than a swing file on your charts! NO Indicators, No Moving Averages, just RAW price action I think for this thread I'll leave it there - If you can't prosper with these ultra simple methods then you're doing something massively wrong and if you go back and check the rules to success that i started this thread with, you'll be messing up on 1 or more of them - REVISIT them and learn them The one thing i will say is "To win big in the markets, you have to do what most others aren't doing - WD Gann showed me in his works the 2 Higher Lows / Lower Highs trade set-up, he wrote about it 100+ years ago! Along with many others that produce mega returns from the markets - I'm willing to bet very little is published out there on this subject" If you go down the Gann route - contact me - it is fraught with bad information and works, this is because people devote a lot of years to researching Gann and when they get to the end and realise they can't work it out they still publish the sub-standard work they have been researching, which then clogs up the trading literature world and after reading 10 so called Gann books and getting nowhere people then form the opinion that Gann is a load of tosh - I was one of those people back in early 2010's, then I did something most others wouldn't bother doing, I decided to research and discount it all myself I can tell you for a FACT: That Gann angles WORK Time Cycles WORK Price Retracement and Expansion ratios WORK But only if you use them correctly, in the right context and conditions Why did the SP500 Index stop dead in March 2009 @ 666pts? Back in the 1900's WD Gann wrote of the "Gravity Centre" or the 50% level - there lies the answer Good luck on your trading journey, most f you are going to fail because you're not applying the keys/rules to success - this is another fact. Here's a little bonus material Gann Angles chart for you If you KNOW the Time Cycle date and a simple Gann 1x1 angle falls onto THAT date (to the day) then you can be quietly confident that price is going to reach said 1x1 Gann angle within a few days of the date! The KEY is knowing Time Cycle dates - the ones above AREN'T the Time Cycles Gann mentions in his works THT
  5. Simply basic price patterns can make you an absolute fortune in this game - look at the one above on GOLD! This is 100% why I advocate using swing files - you get to see the market in a different perspective The chart is UK: WWH - the spread is way to wide to trade this The 2 high Lows trade to the left of the chart, worked, but you'd of broken even on the trade at worst - This is WHY money management is crucial in this game! There's nothing special to this trading method - It's also an Elliott Wave (EW) method too, but often if you employ strict EW rules you wouldn't take the trade. TIP: If you have software that can search for Elliott Waves, then set it to look for Wave 4's the blue W4 box on my software tells me that price is in the perfect price AND time zone for a EW 4 If price CLOSES below the #3 low then it would CONFIRM a bearish swing low For simplicity all we want is for price to validate the trade by trading LOWER than #3 and we'd be in the trade Again simple money management rules - Stop = 25% of the 50 period ATR (20pts) / once up 2 x risk (40pts) stop goes to break-even +0.1 to ensure some sort of profit and then protect 40% of any open profit Opportunity, excellent R profit potential, excellent risk management = As good as it gets, doesn't guarantee a wining trade though
  6. INFO - The 19th August trade details will not be produced until AFTER the date as I'm not going to be anywhere near my trading screen to produce the chart - will do upon my return
  7. UPDATE: 3 x RISK target hit = STOP moved to protect 40% of open profits = Info on chart
  8. I call it a wash and rinse - it happens often at swing lows and swing highs, as they are the obvious place for stops to be placed at, the "science" of the markets means that these places are often hit because of what the market HAS to do to move.
  9. As you can see this StochRSI Indicator did a brilliant job of catching ALL the swing low points and Identifying a new UP cycle - The Green Line is another Stoch RSI setting shown on the same Indicator window as the main StochRSI Ind The Blue line is a smoothed version of the RAW StochRSI, the Pick line is a moving average of the Blue line the chart is the Daily SP500 Index The success in using it comes in the rules for whatever trading method you decide to use/employ - but for Identifying swing lows/highs it's pretty accurate You can use other Indicators to do this too, hence why I said if you use differing settings to the defaults it can work more in your favour than the markets Us professional traders aren't professional for cosmetic reasons, its because we do things slightly differently to that of Joe Public, which results in profits - these profits come from a thorough investigation of a method to swing the odds into our favour and not the house/markets As with any method your risk management will determine just how good it is or not - also knowing in what market conditions the Indicator fails to be effective Also you do not need Indicators to make money from the markets - they suit some people not others Anyone with half a brain can clearly SEE from the chart below that the Indicator is in SYNC with the Rhythm and cycles of the market - yes it LAGS price but only 1-2 bars - That should have been picked up on when i posted my weekly analysis the other month, but it clearly wasn't. The markets offer you 100's% per year EVERY year in profits, if you are nowhere near those returns then you are not looking at the markets correctly and I'm not saying that you can make those sorts of returns from using an Indicator either
  10. Any Indicator setting is useful it all depends what confirmation you need, doesn't matter about the time-frame - if you're using an Indicator it works best when it is as SPECIFIC as possible for the method I spent a year full-time in between trades looking at Indicators back in 2010 - All Indicators are mathematical formulas of price action over x periods, they show momentum, we trade price, however, they can be manipulated to show a higher degree of price action direction which increases the odds of success I've personally not used a default setting of an Indicator for over a decade Walter Bressert [RIP] created a double smoothed stochastic to use as his preferred Indicator for the type of trading he made money from, that was in the 90's The StochRSI in its raw form is a wild Indicator, if you smooth it out, it catches a huge % of the markets turns
  11. A trade calculator for spread bets allowing you to enter market, trade position size etc into it but also expected likely holding - the calculator then works out if holding a DFB or future contract would be best for you the customer
  12. You're completely missing the point, which most people who look at Indicators do - if you use the default settings you're destined to make mistakes - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Definitive-Guide-Momentum-Indicators/dp/1592803385 This will help the layman, but it doesn't explain how to use Indicators to make money from the markets, I read it once and then binned the book as i wasted a week reading nothing knew. That is exactly why I blanked out the Indicator settings on some of my charts - because if you knew what they were it would give you one massive leg up to being able to use them properly - seems like i was absolutely spot on blanking out the setting You do NOT use an Indicator to generate signals - you use them as a filter along with something else which when done correctly gets you into a position within a bar or two of a low/high If you weren't such a nasty person I might of been open to posting a thread on how to use Indicators to your advantage, but that ain't going to happen and the StochRSI Indicator has a massive point
  13. UPDATE: OK - so price hit 2 x risk, so according to the rules of this method the stop goes to break even (green line now) - 3224.29 Next New Moon trade takes place at the open on the 19th of August
  14. If you email/contact Nicholas directly @ PRT he's usually pretty good at helping you if its simply a technical issue
  15. I personally couldn't think of anything worse than having to deal with the public - out of 10,000 there'd be about 5 people who would be worth the effort, the other 9995 would destroy your belief in humanity and life itself
  16. I was going to offer some advice - anyway, if it were me the initial stop would have been somewhere on that green entry bar and then it would have been trailed upwards to preserve a % of open profits so that a profitable trade did not turn into a b/e trade or loss
  17. Stop placement is probably the hardest thing to do with a profitable trade - only thing i can suggest is that you should know exactly where your stop and trailing stop are going before you get into a trade Swing lows are obvious but as you've seen a nice wash and rinse can happen at that point Can you repost the original chart and show where you're initial stop was placed?
  18. Think this has happened to us all at some point - I know exactly what you mean, the move can defy logic and reasoning, skirts 0.1pt/pip past your stop and then completely 180* u turn and moves as you intended
  19. I remember walking into a seminar in the 2000's at Norwich city FC when i was an financial adviser - to hear from Andy - Walked in and he was being bellowed at down the phone by Mike Ashley (sports direct) questioning why their share price had dipped I was also in the company of that fund management group on d-day Oct 2008 and they didn't have a clue To be fair on Andy, he's probably one of the better fund managers out there, although he'll live and die by his funds performance
  20. A few weeks back I wrote about WD Ganns 4th Time Lucky trading method, with examples The eagle eyed of you would have noticed the set up on a DAILY chart of GOLD (although no-one highlighted it!), as it's been building for a while It took 2 attempts to get in (stop 12 pts) but with a target of 95 points = 7.92R which again is a half decent R value
  21. It's officially LIVE 1st trade is off and running Rules in post 1 above - target levels and stop shown on chart Remember this is to SHOW you over the course of 12 trades and 1 year by ENTERING in a fixed direction, dictated by the NEW MOON, we will see how a virtually random method compares - to be honest the main aim is to show you how by skewing risk/reward and money management into your favour you can win or prevent massive losses For the doubters out there - Yes I have in the past traded this method using ETF's of the FTSE250 Index (MIDD) in the 2000's inside my SIPP and ISA As I'm doing this for fun, the chart will be updated once it's stopped out or target hit Next Trade is in August and we'll be going LONG at the open on the 19th (PS - The MOON has absolutely NOTHING to do with this trade - I just thought it fun to use the moon in the method to prove how you can actually make money trading the markets with a stupid example of a method, but with excellent risk/reward and excellent money management - we could have just gone long on the 1st or last trading day of the month) If you do not see the money management importance of this - then you will be doomed to failure as a trader and there is nothing anyone but you can do about that I'm afraid TABLE: DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 Aug 19th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Sept 17th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Oct 16th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  22. I've not looked at those methods for years, but funnily enough I have for years employed a sort of Darvas box to my weekly charts but my box is very very simply the monthly range movement drawn onto a weekly chart (see chart) but all i will say is if they worked once, then they will definitely work again during the same market conditions - markets aren't doing what most people think they are doing, markets are dynamic, in my How to Win thread I mention you have to view the markets in a differing perspective to that forced onto a 2 dimensional chart - the reasoning for that is the reason why the dynamics of the markets change and alter and for methods that once worked seem to have stopped working I tell people to imagine a square box on a stick - the box is right in front of your vision so you can only see one side in your view, for years you see only one side of the box then suddenly it's rotated overnight and you get another side, only this time the market doesn't conform to the previous sides rhythms, cycles or methods If this happens in the markets then that could be the explanation as to why once good methods worked and then suddenly stopped [I spent 2010-12 exploring that question]
  23. I have Miners software which includes his DTosc Indicator - yep they all show the rate of change but with slightly differing maths - to be fair, his DTosc is probably better than most indicators out there, however the best by far is the good old RSI (wilders) Miner used his in conjunction with EW, which when EW works did time the turns pretty well - I don't trade EW's, although a couple of patterns i use can be classed as EW's I published a weekly analysis showing multiple indicates - i think people thought i traded them all - the veiled message which no one picked up on was to show the Indicators and how they were similar, as well as how they moved when set correctly with price moves/cycles of the market Saying that they can be used very well in certain ways - especially in identifying small cycles in the market, crucial turning points and divergences Should clarify that I do/have traded with Indicators, purely because I like to win often and have one over the market, I also use pure price action and it's this that produces me the greatest % returns year on year. William Garrett published in the early 70's a book on Investing with Torque - this included volume into the equation, which is a good read, anyone reading it will come away from the book thinking about his cycle analysis and work - if its still in print My bookshelf use to be packed with books - hundreds - now there's just a handful of the ones that work - I used to pick up a trading book and wonder if it was going to be full of fluff or actually worth something, most books could be condensed into 10-20 straight to the point pages Keep saying price action is doing exactly the same as it did 150 years ago, all that has changed is the growth aspect of the market
  24. I remember testing Elders Impulse system back in 2010 ish, never used it - good post