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THT

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Everything posted by THT

  1. EWP does NOT work - They've been calling for a top and decline to near 0 since 1986!!!!! Certain things in EWP do work though and can be used to profit from the markets Again there's a massive myth about Fib Rets and Ext's - sometimes they work, often they don't, that in itself tells you something is amiss - but again they can be used to profit from the markets I would look at the 50% ret level which is not a fib level, its a gann level - Hence why the market came to a smack bang stop around that level in the 1960's, 70's, 2003 and 2009 If all you ever did was trade Elliott Wave 2's which are in fact Gann's Secondary reactions (gann wrote about them 1st) you do rather well
  2. As our very old friend WD Gann said "4th Time at a level and it often goes through" Same with the FTSE100 Index yesterday - bingo
  3. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO This is how I view Risk - If my account value is £x then the max per trade I'm prepared to lose is 2% of the £x - lets say the £x = £2,000 The the most I'm risking is £40 per trade I take (The £ value of this 2% changes as my account goes up or down) Then on the market I'm trading for ease, say Entry = 100p and I ascertain that my stop needs to be at 90p = 10p range of risk Then the £ per point is simply = £40 / 10p = £4 per point Read Dr Van Tharps - Trade your way to Financial Freedom - it explains the laws of probability and probabilistic returns - these laws CONTOL things when you trade, they cannot be avoided You need to build into your mind a mechanical emotionless setting everytime you trade - it should not matter whether you win or lose, the way I do this is I take the trade happy to take a loss Depends on your method too IF (and most traders don't know this) you know the exact stats of your method over many many trades then you could just trade a fixed £ risk amount and know that at some point it'll come good if you take a series of losses one after the other
  4. Stopped out again DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  5. totally agree - It should be much more harder to open up an account Re: the SP500 compound calc - enter the dates Jan 1949 - Dec 1966 AND Aug 1982 - Mar 2000 Work out the annualised ret + divs and you should see the same return from Nov 2016 - Mar 2034 - somewhere in that range of % returns Markets work out a cycle of UP/DOWN sequence - to compare the DOWN sequence look at Dec 1966 - Aug 1982 AND Mar 2000 - Nov 2016 and you should see the % annual returns average for the DOWN sections From Nov 2016 we've been in official cycle UP mode and will continue to do so until 2034 - this will allow average Joe Trader to think they are brilliant stock pickers as the market drags them up, then in 2034.........It will start to unravel for them - obviously this period will be excellent for the buy and hold investor
  6. I think you assume we all sit watching this thread 24/7 - I certainly don't and that we've been with IG for years I joined IG in April 2020 - my main accounts are elsewhere with various other providers mainly in SIPP/ISA accounts I know EXACTLY where you're coming from, 95% of retail traders fail, 95% of all traders fail, the 5% that make it are no longer retail traders they become professional traders in their own right and I don't mean the monkeys that work for the banks - I mean people living and trading off their own funds Right let's do it - lets make it 20% a year What market(s) are we trading? Aim is 20% Rules are - As soon as we're UP 20% on the account we stop trading, if this happens before 31st Dec then we just STOP until 1st Jan the following year and then restart again until we make 20% then we stop, restart, stop etc What account account size? are we using to determine risk etc and how much are we risking per trade? - I would recommend 2% I'll determine the rest of the rules - We'll be trading off DAILY charts to make it even more harder to achieve and rather than flood the thread with "Trade setting up here - then it fails to trigger" I'll post the chart once the trade is OPEN/LIVE and on that chart we'll have all the rules applicable to that "live" position - This will also mean that people don't blindly follow Now for the rest of this week I'm heading to the Lake District, so I won't be constantly monitoring this thread, nor will I be trading. As we are nearing end of Oct and 10 full months of the trading year have expired, should we say that from now until 31st Dec 2021 we need to return 23.32%?
  7. You can gain so much info off of these old trading timers! if you do not know - Larry is a very influential trader using Fibonacci and Joe is also a leading expert on Fibonacci Now I don't agree with them on market form since 2009 - I personally think that they've failed to see or know even that the market has INCREASED it's ENERGY level, hence the increased volatility, which fits in perfectly with my outlook for the next decade (If you read my Time Cycle thread - you will see that I refer to cycles, in the PAST volatility increased when the cycles increased energy) If I'm right about the next decade then swings are going to be like this and greater Joe makes comment about XOP's in late 2018 - These are basically Fibonacci EXTENSIONS/PROJECTIONS of prior swings (I've marked the swings used with blue lines and the XOP's in PINK Joe would have been out at the 2 lines that were around the 6010 level - see chart below I published on my THT HOW TO WIN Thread using 2RSI along with market form - basically Joe's OSCILLATOR Predicator can be substituted with the 2RSI - you can also just use normal MACD too Again it just depends on how you define a downtrend - Joe relies on and uses his moving averages - we can clearly see lower lows and lower highs too All this info is in Joes book - "Trading with DiNapoli Levels" - Which I bought off him at the Las Vegas traders expo in Nov 2010 and got him to give me a whistle-stop explanation of over a beer NOW the market does NOT always stop dead on these levels!!!!!!!! They do sometimes and sometimes they DON'T - this is WHY you HAVE to have rules and YES it is allowed to trade 3 units and dispose of each unit @ each of the OP levels he mentions in his book, just in case the market fails to reach the extreme fib levels You also could derive the levels below from Robert Miners "High Probability Trading Strategies" book too
  8. Hi - Yeah I know - I should have said another reason for avoiding them is to get me away from a computer screen too
  9. This is the 1st forum I've ever joined and been part of in 10 years of trading - I joined in April this year (2020) and it is exactly why for the previous 9 years I've never joined another forum or whatever you want to call them I had to work at working it all out - its not fair for people to expect it handed to them on a plate - you learn much more from learning and most importantly you work out what doesn't work Best thing I ever did was jump on a plane to attend the Nov 2010 Traders Expo in Las Vegas - main objective was to ask the right questions and quiz the presenters and stall vendors - learnt that most were talking out of their ar$%'s Remember having a beer with Joe DiNapoli (of Fibonacci fame) and John Carter (Mastering the Trade book) - learnt so much in 15 mins! Then again I bumped into John Carter at the London 2012 Expo - bought him a coffee and again had another quick chat
  10. Hi - That's not the point of the thread - anyone is free to back test it All I'm doing is bringing it to the attention of the community and new members every month in the "hope" that it triggers deep thinking about risk:reward and how a ridiculous semi-random trading method can work in the markets I might post a table of past years results, but it's last on my list of things to do for the time being - anyone wishing to do so feel free though
  11. I agree with dmedin here - as soon as you start trading you are at the behest of the laws of probability and probabilistic returns - which is all laid out in a £20 book by Dr Van Tharp and the only way to beat buy and hold is by being able to TIME the market, so you get out when things are about to turn bad and then back in again once over and the uptrend restarts (which can be done - my Time cycle thread will prove that going forward)
  12. Here's October 2020's THT NEW MOON method test Rules as in the original post Aim is to prove to you that you do not need a fancy schmancy trading method to make money in the markets a random method with good risk:reward is all you need DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  13. That's not necessarily true, for 1 many of them have to be invested x% at ALL times, which means holding during plunges and bear markets and 2) If they all sold out at tops and invested at lows (assuming the could do it) then they'd end up wrecking the the fund management industry - just imagine them all cashing in at once hold cash for say 12 months then reinvesting it- they'd have no income to pay salaries etc and their businesses would implode The realities of business and regulations to be part of a particular sector prevent them from being able to do it even if they could hence why you're always told to buy and hold, always stay in the market.........those fund management fees need collecting! Fund Managers get paid a % of the fund, the bigger the fund, the bigger their commission in £'s so it would be logical to think that they would do everything possible to avoid the fund from losing value especially during bear markets, but they don't because of the restrictions mentioned above
  14. Stopped out overnight for a SCRATCH / BREAKEVEN trade Think this could roll into next week before it becomes clear on whether the DT is valid or whether we are in fact heading to highs What we have now is a bullish situation in the opposite direction! The trend from 24th Sept = UP, 3 bar pull back/correction WITH a PIN BAR and 2RSI <25% in the reversal zone Next trade set is LONG above 3495 I am worried about the potential DT but we have a valid trade setting up that we've taken many times before successfully, so my "thinking" is: We could have a reversal to the highs and poss more = long trade This could just be a temp pull back in the start of a downward trend =This WILL form either DT or a gann secondary reaction to which a short trade can be established from (for this the 2RSI for me does NOT have to hit >75% - I will take the position based on price action form) The Double Top (DT) could still happen If the long trade is triggered then if #1 and #3 happen there's enough movement in price to get my stop to BE - if the long trade triggers and #2 is occurring then i might suffer a full 1R loss - happy to take the risk! The WEEKLY Indicator is Overbought - but this happens in uptrends too as well as DT's/reversals etc so little weight is given to this at the moment, however, it will roll over IF price declines We've now got a correction to the mini uptrend that is greater in both time and price than any corrections throughout the uptrend - This could be signalling tops in or close to being in The KEY is to be adaptable - I don't care about being "right" all I care about is that I get onto the move whether its up or down and the driver is price action NOT the Indicator
  15. Short SP500 - Weds 14th Oct 2020 Double Top with 2RSI <75% - DAILY Timeframe 25 point stop - this stop is already @ breakeven Do we KNOW this will work and reach target? NO BUT we do know that if we do this on EVERY trade potential lots of them WILL and it is THAT, that makes you the % growth Now we basically Ignore the Indicator from now on and adhere to risk management rules to manage the trade Those are - Leave alone for 2 trading days, then protect open profits with a trailing stop until stopped or target hit Proof of trade - I've just taken this as a DFB contract, Depends on how quick the trade lasts for it might have been more advantageous to have selected the next months futures contract Also I've taken the trade assuming a account value of £2k - risking just 2% of that £2k = £40 for the trade Target on the chart = 9.57R potential Worst case we have now is a scratch trade, but the upside is a very healthy nearer 10R profit potential
  16. Yep my remaining position got stopped at BE
  17. That's EXACTLY how buy and holders should Invest - the corrections are the best places to be buying/selling Don't go down the predictions route without acceptance of open eyes - its fraught with danger and huge frustration To compare what to expect from the Nasdaq100 look back to 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 - It should do something similar - I think both periods returned 1000+% growth ish There's a sequence of UP/DOWN price general rises that run to a cycle of 16-19 years (Gann NEVER ever mentioned this cycle) when looking back the markets make sense when you view them in the right sequence/section - so for example - 1966-1982 was a DOWN section, followed by an UP section 1982-2000, then 2000-2016 was a DOWN section - we're now in the next UP section which MUST be a growth section - might not seem it right now, but when we look back from 2034 it will definitely have been up Happy Trading THT
  18. 1) Because it works and more importantly 2) Because it annoys the hell out of you I get more satisfaction from #2 than I do from the money #1 creates
  19. To be fair to him - I went through a really bad period in the 2000's where everything I looked at turned out to be utter **** - my personality is that of precision, exactness etc and it took a lot of years to overcome this with markets being as they are and I did rather rudely challenge people claiming this and that - so I can see where he's coming from That being said there's no excuse for some of his posts and comments
  20. I would not use his cycles - Gann wrote a huge amount of his work veiled in secrecy or double meaning - a lot of what he wrote doesn't work - but some of it does on his basic form reading - I've disclosed most of it in this thread above - I have left out though a couple of the more profitable methods as I've not seen then produced anywhere else - the methods above are highly profitable if you use the right Risk and stop placement I DO use cycles, but I use my own that I stumbled upon when trying to get Gann's cycles to work (years of testing here) - you'll get very frustrated if you blindly follow Gann's courses on cycles, as you mention some of it is heavy going - that's because he isn't telling you the full story, he gave you part of the key There's been a few (I've never been a member) very serious Gann dedicated online work groups who have tried to crack his code and ended up wasting years of time - don't waste your time down that route For cycles I ONLY look at the most speculative freely traded stock market which is the USA markets and specifically the NASDAQ100 Index - check out my Time Cycle thread I posted the other week The reason the markets defy common logic is that they will work out in accordance of the time cycle - I've not published on here, but the markets will over the next 14 years be going UP UP and UP - obviously that will not be in a straight line - I might be completely and utterly wrong, but for the past 228 years the USA markets have been conforming to certain cycles and sequences and I fully expect that to happen going forward as long as the USA markets are the worlds leading market for speculation, which the Nas currently is and has been since 1999 I accept and understand that lots of this completely goes against most conventional wisdom on the markets, but then again if conventional wisdom drives the markets why do 95% of would be traders end up failing! Gold or gold backed money will eventually come good, once the powers that be figure out a way to profit from and control it as they have producing fiat currencies and debt I don't want to publish my cycle material on this thread - It will completely confuse people learning how to beat the game - I might expand on the Time Cycle thread I published the other week, as when you understand the cycles that control the markets all that confusion about what the market will do next evaporates - That does not mean it is possible to predict the day to day or month to month moves of the market! It means that it is possible to know when the market will experience big turns like 1987, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 etc which for some people are worth knowing - but you can still make money fro the markets not having a clue about it as well Reading Gann you might come across his "Wheat 120" trade of 1909 - I have absolutely no idea and I know of no-one who has ever been able to replicate that prediction to this day, so either Gann had 1 massive lucky call or that information is still buried, so you have to be really careful with Gann THT
  21. Never looked at crypto - your welcome Happy to help Markets are doing something entirely different to what most people think they are doing, so it pays to take a big step back and view the bigger picture then drill down
  22. Shouldn't have to do this - and I'm unlikely to be do this much going forward, but as I'm making claims, they need to be backed up by factual evidence Trade one is a what you could class as a Gann Secondary reaction that fired off the other Friday 2nd the market is ISF which is the ETF of FTSE100 Index Now this trade did NOT meet the 2RSI criteria for the trade, It is however another method that I trade and it was that set-up that got me into the trade which happened to be also a Gann 2ndry reaction There was also another Gann Secondary reaction that the 2RSI failed to meet in early August - The tick UP above 25% with an Inside Bar is OK to trade too but you need the swing high taking out fast Proof of trade = Unleveraged inside a normal trading account SIPP account Trade Two is another Gann Secondary Reaction in the GOLD market, taken this one as a SB - This is now @ BE and will trail the stop up or target hit THT
  23. Its always been a fact - I've always thought 95% is nearer the truth
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