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THT

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Everything posted by THT

  1. I don't look too much at comm's as I can't get the price data I require, apart from Gold One thing on Int rates - and its only an observation - the stock market has clearly followed a precise cycle for centuries - from observation and research its my belief that the stock market and by stock market I mean the USA markets (UK had been following suit) is repeating the 1929-1951 cycle, overlay that cycle from 2000 and it's all complied pretty nicely If Int rates follow that 1929-1951 cycle then very soon we should be seeing rising int rates - I'm only observing, I haven't bothered running the int rate cycles as they don't concern me too much
  2. GOLD - same formations/methods - different time frames and slightly different market Chart 1 is WEEKLY spot price Notice the DOUBLE TOP 9 years apart! connected by the horizontal purple line Chart 2 is DAILY - GOLD ETF SGLN Happens all the time if people choose to look properly at charts
  3. Yes but the set-ups on monthly charts can take years to form I prefer WEEKLY and DAILY ATR - I just like to be a % of recent volatility covering a number of swings I posted THT How to WIN as a thread - def worth a read as lots of methods on there that actually work Thing to remember is - there is nothing new in the markets, they still work as they were working 200 years ago, albeit more people trading and Investing, but the SAME formations form now as they did back then - Indicators came in in the 1970's and are just mathematical formulas of past price action, sometimes they work sometimes they don't work as a method - As traders all we are bothered about is making a profit, so we find methods that work and then exploit the hell out of them as they are more than happy for us to lose! and every method that works will not work 100% of the time - so the laws of probability take over - Fr Van Tharp explains this perfectly in his book how to trade your way financial freedom book
  4. It all depends on the method - Depending on what it is it will work, but the market cycle and conditions may affect things For those 3 chart I posted above - the stop I would use is a % of ATR - that will change per market and per time-frame but the overall method of trading still works regardless, you just have to adjust the trade parameters I'm NOT saying that you can just trade a method and it will work - because it needs to be traded in the correct market conditions for it [the method] to work, but if it works, it works as long as its traded in the same market conditions I am happy to explain further as its fairly crucial to understand In those charts above the stop goes 1 penny underneath the last swing low - as the method shown was trading up swings of the markets shown and 1 penny above the swing highs for trading the down swings - the stop would depend on entry to stop positions and as a % of ATR for each market - the METHOD worked, the parameters for stop positions etc is up to the individual trader, but it makes no sense in having a wider stop than shown as a violation of the SL/SH means that the trend has failed and over If using some glorified Indicator to trade from/with then that is when things can become distorted For example stupidly trading every stochastic or RSI or MACD when it becomes oversold or overbought - this methods does work, but only in certain conditions, once you work out those conditions you no longer trade the Indicator on every reversal, as such you've improved the trading method to one that does work and can be traded
  5. As long as its a freely traded market yes - not sure what you mean by adapatations - but the basis for the method works on all freely traded markets and time-frames
  6. Best wishes to your Aunty Janis - I bumped into the wife's boyfriend on his way to the Porsche garage, lovely fella, can exactly why she enjoys his company, sends his regards and mentioned he was keenly anticipating a fantastic ride whilst caressing her curves - not sure if he meant the car or something else If you've read my Time Cycle thread, you'll know that we are literally right smack bang in that time period - with this TC I allow a weeks grace either side of the exact date - If its going to work (there is no guarantee) then yesterdays action could have been the start of it - simply have to wait and see - A pullback of some degree is expected, although I'm edging to think this TC may be a flat date which is rare, but hey ho We have another different TC due early June too which demands respect - I'm planning on doing a piece specifically to it April time once we are clear of this current TC PS - I don't trade TC's blindly, I wait for the market to form a clear trading formation (not yet happened) - although I too have a Put Option active as insurance
  7. I think for spread betting and CFD's forex has tight spreads - I view trading as any market, for me forex is least important
  8. I'm making you think on purpose - I don't apologise for that as if its important to you it'll sink in YES YES YES YES YES YES I have said for years that professional stock market fund managers would show how bad they really are and all those Investors who Invest based on Fundamentals - because the stock market just goes upwards over time - It has to, because of all the money pouring in and business growth etc If the stock market acted like the commodity and forex markets then it would definitely show the men from the boys Commodities and Forex don't do that, they grow and decompose based on other factors - for example the Soybean market jumps up a growth level once every few decades and will trade in a range for x decades, then jump up a growth level, trading sideways etc etc - Forex not enough price data to work out its cycles yet as with gold SP500 Index - What about 8 really good shorting positions in 60 years! - Bias is definitely UP That being said the path of least resistance for most stocks making up the index is up which can be bought and then 50 years of GBPUSD = a fund managers nightmare
  9. Here's - GOLD, GBPEUR and NASDAQ100 Index The METHOD/STRAGEY is to buy the dip in an uptrend and sell the rally in a downtrend as confirmed by establishing the TREND that I detail in my THT HOW TO WIN thread: Funnily enough it seems to work and back up my claim that if a method works, it'll work in ANY market and ANY time-frame - funny that - must be a lucky few years on the market going my way! I won't bother with the intra-day chart - you get the jist Now if the question was/is - "Do all markets behave the SAME?" Then the answer is NO - if the question was "do you need differing techniques in different market cycles?" Then the answer is YES Those weren't the questions though - as you can see BUYING the dip in an uptrend and SELLING the rally in a downtrend works on various markets DIFFERENT strategies are required for DIFFERENT MARKET CYCLE STAGES - such as when it goes FLAT/Sideways etc - but if a method WORKS it will work in ANY market as long as you're trading the right direction
  10. OK I'll bow to your superior knowledge - tell you what, lets test it - you pick the markets - pick 3-5 - also in that pick name a timeframe lower than 1 day too please - Lets see who's right here Also lets have YOUR method too and I'll use that I'll also show you 1 of mine that I've published on this site too
  11. You and only you can figure that out Everything you are doing I was doing and trying to figure out over 10 years ago yep EVERYTHING works at some point, but does it work often enough to be able to trade profitably with/from To answer your original question - the FOREX markets will look different to the stock market, the stock market organically grows (which is why buying and holding works on it) but the FOREX and for that the commodity markets are different markets in terms of their growth and decline - but the same methods will work on all those markets if they work in the markets on daily and lower time frames, weekly timeframes is where it changes If this is of Interest to you - get a chart of the Dow from 1915 to present and then one of say the Soybean or wheat market for the same time frame and notice how they display on a chart - the overall growth of the commodity will be limited as it won't go upwards continually like the stock market because its based on real life prices in the shops - it WILL go through growth and decomposition phases though and range itself But drop down to the daily charts and you'll get the same patterns and formations as you do on the stock market Viewing charts is all about how you view them and the context Just remember only 5% of people trading actually make it work - that means 95% fail and if you're listening to the 95% of people that fail then, well you can work that one out
  12. Feb 2021: DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 175pts 5R Aug 19th 2020 LONG 3392.51 3357.51 35 pts 175 pts 3567.51 -35pts 4R Sept 17th 2020 LONG 3346.86 3311.86 35 pts 175 pts 3521.86 -35pts 3R Oct 16th 2020 LONG 3493.50 3458.50 35 pts 175 pts 3668.50 -35pts 2R Nov 15th 2020 LONG 3600.16 3565.16 35 pts 175 pts 3775.16 -35pts 1R Dec 14th 2020 LONG 3675.27 3640.27 35 pts 175 pts 3850.27 -35pts 0R Jan 13th 2021 LONG 3802.23 3767.23 35 pts 175 pts 3977.23 -35pts -1R Feb 11th 2021 LONG 3916.40 3881.40 35 pts 175 pts 4091.40 Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk
  13. If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES The methods that I trade worked over 100 years ago and they are still working to this day, exactly as they did back in the 1920's! I trade FTSE100, FTSE250, Individual FTSE350 stocks, GOLD, Silver, ETFS, ETCS, EURUSD and all my methods work on all those markets If you think your method does not do that then the problem is either you or the method No-one can always read a market - price and time are evolving in 4D, we're forced to view that action on a 2D front on chart
  14. Just focussing on basics.............................. All mentioned in the posts above in this thread 2nd reaction, Double Top, Triple Top, Double bottoms, 2 Higher Lows etc There's a DB not shown (located in between arrow 2 and 3) you'd of been stopped out of this once but it worked 2nd time, also there's a very near 2 Higher Lows in Dec 2020 that formed but didn't trigger Also I think I've mentioned the Inside Swing trade previously - this formed after arrow 3 to the downside I've not highlighted the SHORT 2ndry reaction right in the middle of the chart (Nov 2020) (worked on 2nd attempt) 10 trades set up, 12 entries, 2 losses, 80% win rate on that chart - R value was greater than 3R These methods WORK - I have months ago shown you very basic trading methods that work, they return high R values if you get the risk right too The chart below is of the ETF that tracks physical SILVER (PHSP) Here's a recent Gold short that I made recently: with the returns:
  15. We've got 7 trading days after todays session left until this TC arrives Markets getting nice and volatile in the build up to it - you will see that all the "rational reasoning" for the markets increased volatility around these key dates can be poo pooed as we go forward because I'll publish the dates of the TC's well in advance, so that you can see the TC date published months/years in advance and then the "news" around it This TC due 10th Feb is the EXACT same TC that arrived at the Dec 2018 low - is this significant? Well it's the same TC that's been present at lots of turns for the past 100 years and it was present at the March 6th LOW of 2009 too! Compared to the Feb 2020 TC this one is a tamer TC, but it does move things, this is the TC's 2nd Occurrence since the major TC commenced in Nov 2016 Whatever happens as traders we have a proven TC date very very close - we need to be prepared as we don't know the extent (IF ANY) of any reaction - but to not be alert to the date would be a crime ALREADY in the build up to this TC date the 2nd to LAST sentence (What I am attempting to do here......) from the post above is already true Ignore the candlesticks they "squish" together to fit the chart layout Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works in Time and Time Cycles Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only
  16. Get your account to £500k then transfer it to another provider who uses a bit more common sense
  17. I'll leave the finer detail to working out the effectiveness to you - you'll soon know if it works or not - all I would say is test test and test it to master it and then you'll know
  18. We're responding to your post - we can't see what you're trying to do, it would be easier to see the method and methodology of what you are trying to achieve then we could most likely say - won't work or try this - we're working blind in giving you our opinions The other thing would be to widen stops
  19. Hello If you've read the thread so far, you should be under no doubt that 1) I trade and 2) I'm good and 3) I know more than the average Joe out there This post is VERY ADVANCED The hardest part of this post will be getting your head around the concept I show - the actual method is all but a few clicks of a mouse on a chart I've got to be careful in what I publish because its free and there are unfortunately rip off sharks out there who will rip off someone else's work and sell it as their own - so this is not complete, there's aspects "missing" I'm afraid All the below is FREELY available because it is all there on the chart - all I'm using is MATHS and price data Ignore the fact that I've talked about Time Cycles in previous posts - Time Cycles do RULE the market, you will know that at the Dec 2018 low and the FEB 2020 high Time cycles were projected and due, so we knew in advance potential change in trends could occur then and it DID! What I'm going to show you exists within and in between of these Time Cycles The chart below shows you Price aspects and also TIME aspects that were projected from the Dec 2018 Time Cycle LOW - notice how PRICE & TIME levels in the grid actually HIT the 2020 LOW too! I have said in previous posts that you NEED to view the markets in a different perspective - this is one of them! Open your mind and just think I do not care what people say about the markets - they operate on a grid system and that grid system is based on the Triangle, Square and Circle - in other words the markets conform to GEOMETRY and GEOMETRIC shapes From the Dec 2018 LOW - it is evident that the first SQUARE ran from the low to 3rd May 2019 (this is the highest CLOSE) before it had its 1st decent correction So we take the number of Trading DAYS in TIME and the price in actual pence and use them to construct out SQUARE (Green Square) - this contains price and also time We then subdivide that square by halving it and it creates 4 smaller squares within the large green square - We then simply copy that square up and over to the right We KNOW that price and TIME are conforming to this SQUARE because price followed the 45 degree angle of the large green square - Gann said "Once Price and Time balance - the trend changes" The trend changed in May 2019 and a ABC correction ensued down to swing point A (Please NOTE - once swing LOW A is in Swing HIGH B could have been projected EXACTLY - not shown and Swing HIGH C hit not only to the DAY but to the PENNY in price too (You need to do another squaring system to obtain that though - not shown) Just look at how price follows the squaring lines Also notice that in March 2020 Price fell to the BLUE line that was a split of the 1st large green original square we used for the past 12 months price and time action - It actually slightly over-ran that price level, this is what WD Gann referred to as "Lost Motion" in his works from the 1930's This is just one method for working out squaring and squares and there is NO way to know in advance whether a market is going to use this method or one of the other squaring methods If you're sat there reading this with an open mind you should be partly blown away by this on many levels - the next chart down should blow you completely away! If all you take away from this - just remember financial markets are NOT random Now the same squaring system/range does not work all the time I'm afraid - so you have to have various methods on the go all the time to see what is syncing - remember I've said in past posts that price and time are dynamic and NOT static - they do I'm afraid "shift" which keeps us all on our toes Chart is Nasdaq100 Index - DAILY chart OK so we have our 1st large square from the Dec 2018 LOW to the May 2019 HIGH - Price then corrects to swing LOW A - This is ALL you need to absolutely NAIL the HIGH at Swing HIGH C (Notes: Swing A is CONFIRMED once a CLOSE happens above the May 2019 swing high) Using another squaring method you'd of known swing low A was the bottom because it landed pretty much bang on 50% price level of that square) anyway, Same chart - look at the OLIVE Horizontal line at Swing HIGH C Now some basic MATHS - A Square has 4 sides, it also has a diagonal line that intersects the corners of those 4 sides - that DIAGONAL is calculated as the square root of 2 which is 1.4142 times the length of a side of the square PRICE swing of the 1st big square (Dec 2018 - May 2019) of 1946.38 Times/multiply this price figure by the square root of 2 (1.4142) = 2752.57 and then project that 2752.57 price figure from the swing LOW A and you get the OLIVE Price level at Swing HIGH C - How amazing is that!!!!!!!!!!!! Please, please, please do not let the fund management guys tell you you cannot time the markets- because you CAN or let anyone tell you the markets are random - they just ain't!
  20. Yes - you obviously can't guarantee it, but I virtually always work to profit targets that are entered on reversals To do this profitably your method has to be spot on
  21. I really trade! Here is a trade from this week - The Market is an ETF of the Nasdaq100 Index provided by ishares - CNX1 This was a 2 day Swing trade If you've read the above posts then this is a clear DOUBLE BOTTOM following all the rules mentioned in the posts above ENTRY - Entry was actually set for the high of the Inside bar but the market gapped up and opened at the GREEN horizontal line! which was fine As you can see the DB caused a classic W shape if fulfilled - 2RSI in the <25% Oversold zone = 1 high probability trade potential with target of the swing high of the long leg of the W - as you can see price hit that level this afternoon for a healthy return - This provided a 2R return, "IF" (and we have no control over this) I'd of been triggered in at the high of the Inside bar as planned rather than the gapped entry, the R:R was 4R if stop placed at the swing low or 11R if entry was high of the narrow range IB and stop was at the low of it! - Now in this trade - the intention was the 11R trade but the Gap caused a change of plan THIS IS WHY I TRADE BECAUSE OFTEN THESE TRADES COME OFF INTENDED AS PLANNED - this one didn't but it was still a half decent trade To prove the position - I won't be doing this ever again - very NEARLY got the high! You can SCAN the market EVERY DAY for NARROW RANGE bars - and then when they conform to trading method you employ they offer an ultra high probability trading opportunity with ultra high returns
  22. Hi JLZ You need to investigate the company issuing the said ETP's - There's lots of different ones out there, some buy real assets, so use "synthetic" tracking etc - they are 100% legit but you have to be certain they won't go bust Key considerations as you are investing real money into the ETP are: Is the ETP safe in terms of going bust Is you ISA/SIPP/DEALING account provider safe I've traded these products for decades - as long as the ETP provider does not go bust then normal investing/trading risks apply - I've just literally this afternoon taken profits on a Nasdaq100 ETF They came on the scene in the late 90's in the UK and you could track markets not offered by funds at that point - I was in a china ETF in 2000 provided by ishares within my sipp/isa account and was a cheap way of tracking the Chinese market as you didn't have the 5% bid/offer spread and 1% AMC You buy them exactly as you would say BP - If BP goes belly up overnight you're cash is trapped, same would apply here, but as I say if the company is liquid and sound then normal risks apply
  23. Hi I've traded ETF's and ETC's since the early 2000's - Biggest bug bear was quickly finding those products priced in GBP and not USD My charting software has solved this issue Maybe a good post would be to explain the pro's and con's for Leveraged products - holding for long and short term etc and Delta one too
  24. I'll try to be concise: Dent was in 2010 calling for the mother of all stock market crashes - so were Elliott Wave International in fact EWI have been call for a massive collapse since 1986! Some of what he says is accurate - deflation for example - the reason QE has not caused inflation is because it was issued in a deflationary cycle The crash he talks about won't happen - I listened to dent and EWI back in 2010 and I choose to do my own research as other things i was investigating suggested the opposite to what they were both spouting Read my Time Cycles page, it explains the deflationary/inflationary cycles - proven with 220+ years of stock market history behind the reasoning The deflationary cycle he refers to ended late 2016, its now inflationary according to my calcs and research and my prediction is stock market is going upwards until the mid 2030's when it will crash and top out - yet Dent still thinks its in play Up until then we might get a 1987 style crash event but overall the corrections will be modest not massive and they will all be quickly surpassed I don't listen to anyone out there - I trade independently according to my methods so I don't need to be buying and holding and if I'm wrong so be it - it won't affect my trading as the market dictates my positions, not my expectations - since 2010 this has work exceptionally well, where if I'd of followed EWI and Dents forecasts I'd of lost everything in 2010! I've no thoughts on Gold other than it is inflationary hedge - as mentioned on another thread when the stock market is inflationary (which I think started 2017) then price correlation backwards to last time it was inflationary (1982-2000) gold was subdued
  25. Listen Trading is really really hard but the SIMPLEST systems probably work best - in this game being smart or ultra clever is a hindrance I've been EXACTLY where you're at right now - you need to remember ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING has already been thought of, tried and tested - absolutely everything There's one big positive here - at least you're thinking, most don't even do that Re the NEW MOON method - I made the rules up in about 5 seconds - so I have not nor will I back test to see if more optimum stop money management placement would be better - I think over the past 10 years its returned about 5% per annum on average, which is not that good, last year it returned 55% but that was an exceptional one off year By widening the stop some of those stopped out trades would have gone on to be winning trades so messing with the stop placement would have worked yes - to what exact extent i don't know I DO NOT TRADE THE NEW MOON METHOD - I'm only publishing it so that you can see that by GUESSING you can still trade, win and that trading is ALL about the laws of PROBABILITY
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