THT
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Posts posted by THT
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Here's key dates for 2023 - As it states on the chart that bundle of Time Cycles were present right at the highs in 1987
I'm NOT saying that 1987 is going to happen in 2023 - all I'm saying is "The EXACT same cycles that bunched and caused the 1987 crash all bunch and arrive in a 2 month period in 2023"
So I would expect the period Feb-April 2023 to be a fairly volatile period
As you can see these are linear progressions of Time Cycles from a starting point - not all these dates will have much of an effect on the market - but as I've proven, some of them DO
As the great WD Gann said "When TIME is up the trend CHANGES"
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BANG - ABSOLUTELY ACCURATE prediction from 6 years ago (I made Time Cycle dates way back in 2016 for the next 18 years)for my own personal use - I told IG Community about them 9 months ago)
Read the very first post of this this or the 1st few paragraphs shown below:
On 16/12/2020 at 12:08, THT said:Hello All,
Let me take you on a journey of the markets - people say the markets are random (they're NOT), crashes come out of the blue (they DON'T) and it is totally impossible to PREDICT the markets (It IS'NT)
We're told buy and hold is best - It is for the fund management industry and to be fair for 95% of traders it probably is correct, but not for all of us
Have you ever wondered WHY a market suddenly crashes, rallies or does something unexpected? - I did
Now here's my CAVEAT to what I'm about to show you - "It IS possible within a zone to predict the markets in terms of TIME, I believe it is impossible to predict PRICE levels"
Also not every Time Cycle causes the market to move significantly - but with a win/hit rate of 85%+ It's pretty **** well good
I posted on this very thread a post on 26th June 2021 with a chart showing you a date that needed to be watched - that period has resulted in a market correction, that has been tradable for profits
Some of these dates result in very fast plunges like Feb 2020 - again there's hard proof that, that time period was published and noted years in advance (shown in the posts above)
Markets are NOT doing what you think or being told!
THT
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Major prior highs and lows often provide key levels for - I've been watching the 2011 level for a long time
https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/8609-gold/?do=findComment&comment=75489
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When trading you HAVE to have a plan and rules
Either buy at the breakout of the prior swing highs/lows or the Triangle
I've used this for YEARS, although I've slightly modified my method to skew the risk:reward more in my favour, but the principle is exactly the same:
Tullow Oil
All you do is look for the INSIDE SWINGS
I covered this in the first few pages of this thread - Market PATTERNS REPEAT
Simple
THT
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Absolutely
I posted this in my "Time Cycles" thread virtually a year ago (see link at the bottom of this post) - It's all linked especially the soft commodities - You very very rarely get a Trader/Analyst making such bold claims or calls MONTHS or YEARS in advance
The vast majority of these markets formed swing formations I mention in my "How to Win" thread BUT the absolute KEY to all this is KNOWING about the Time Cycle, anyone understanding that the 2020 cycles had "Inverted" knew that as a low it should therefore equal highs up into the next cycle dates (Just look for WD GANN's TRIPLE bottoms on Wheat, Gold etc)
Gann said in 1909 "Some of the biggest rallies start from a Double or Triple Bottom formations" - Its rude not to trade them!
On Time Cycles - ALL financial markets work out to TIME, its WHY markets "wiggle" around and then have tops and bottoms - If people can work out the basic cycles from the below link as I mentioned, then they should be able to "roughly" work out when it tops (which is soon!)
I cannot begin to tell you just how much TIME affects us Humans - From these time cycles, people are losing wealth in the Investments, losing through Inflation from commodities etc - KNOWING the consequences of such cycles ALLOWS YOU as a human to POSITION your financial affairs accordingly to the outlook but the worst thing is people don't have a clue about Time or Time Cycles and believe that all these events happen out of the blue
Gann Secondary Reaction or Elliott Wave 2 LOW in March 2020 allowed long term Investors to get on board the train for an ultra low risk/exposure trade - see if you can find the double bottom in 2021 that kick started the recent rally = BRENT ETF
Same for Wheat in 2020 and a beautiful "square on" Triple Bottom recently = Wheat ETF
An unrelated to financial markets - Time controls WEATHER cycles, the hype around Global warming is valid, but its not extinction for the Earth, once the current up cycle tops out, the Earth will start to cool again - this video proves it:
https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/13746-time-cycles/?do=findComment&comment=73143
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In addition to the post above showing you that the market topped to the 1.902 Golden Triangle ratio - here's another one within 3 points of the top
Rally from Low in 2016 up to the Jan 2018 high/top = 1
Times that rally by 2.828 (which is a harmonic of the SQUARE and you get the TOP short by just 3 points
The Feb 2020 plunge that was also a known time cycle date forced the market down 35,41%
35.4% is another harmonic of the SQUARE and is the INVERSE of 2.828
EVERY trader in the world has said to themselves "I can't work out what the market is up to" at some stage in their life - its because the market KNOWS years in advance where it is heading, we pick up the pieces through geometrical ratios after the event,
See how it all fits - and as in the post above the market worked out to he diagonal of a golden triangle as well, which you'd expect as its all linked to the SQUARE
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So following on from a few things - Do we KNOW for CERTAIN what the markets next move is?
NO we don't - BUT..........We can use TA to guess with a high probability of success
The chart below is BARCLAYS BANK
I've not bothered to look to see what its up to today as I'll get that price data tonight
Now this is NOT guaranteed - but so far Barclays is in the position of forming a near perfect GARTLEY harmonic pattern
Traders will be expecting higher highs - BUT IF and its an IF, a Gartley pattern is forming, then price should stall around those levels clumped together on the chart - doesn't have to be exact but it needs to hit those levels and then REVERSE
NOT to new lows, but it needs to top out and stall some coming back into the RANGE of the #B-#C swing as a MINIMUM
This is crucial info to a trader who is long as if like me you trade Gann Secondary Reactions - the #ABC swing! you want to know where possible resistance is and where the move could terminate
Traditional Gartley traders will automatically sell at #D with a stop above X - I prefer to wait and get confirmation around #D of price turning, then I short with a tight stop in the range between #D to #X, usually 1 penny above the HIGH of the bar that reverses the uptrend
If #X is exceeded then the Gartley potential ends, but any point up to #X the Gartley will remain a valid potential trade
As this ones very close to playing out I'll keep you posted on if it works or not
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THE ART OF TRADING CORRECTIONS
Right, let me show you how to nail and trade these corrections - I don't care how you label them, 1,2 / 1,2,3 / A,B or ABC - up to YOU
I'm going to show you how to buy at either the LOW bar of the correction or within 1-2 bars of the low bar
The VAST majority of corrections happen greater than the 38.2% Fib retracement level - so that MEANS 50%+ level
See everything I've told you about geometry - Price has HAD to hit the 78.6% level to possibly COMPLETE the geometric shape/form its been working out to - IF and its ALWAYS an IF, price has completed the geometry, then we'll have a significant and meaningful bounce from here on in - If it doesn't then its another warning signal
But as Very HIGH Probability trading opportunity it is in position on the PATTERN, the GEOMETRY and Indicator Momentum
Remember for it to be a GARTLEY - Price can't exceed the X level at all
Let the market take you into trades, don't buy at the market as that is guessing and hoping
STOPS? - Well If you're right on the level and the price bar the market isn't going to go below the low of that bar, so 1 penny below the low of the swing low bar which is most likely going to be the entry bar as well
The vast majority of the above was learnt back in 2009/10 from Dynamic Traders Robert Miner and can be found his his book High Probability Trading Methods
Remember IF the level is significant then price IS going to bounce from it
THT
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IG have this on their site - only just noticed looks like it went up there last year
Forget all the **** in the news and online - If you've read my thread, you'll notice I mention some of these in it, you'll also notice that I refer to a Gann Secondary Reaction - the Gann Secondary Reaction is in most of the patterns shown in the link below - either shown as A-B or B-C depending on the method
These patterns allow you to WIN in this game, big - every night when i run through my charts I'm looking for these patterns forming, I also have a software program that scans for Gann Secondary reactions, as you can see they are the STARTING bit should these patterns form
https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/top-7-harmonic-patterns-every-trader-should-know-210608
This chart is SSLN which is a Silver ETF I use to trade inside my ISA and SIPP accounts - I originally got in at the low bar at #A - Yes its possible to buy those lows - I got out a little before #B for a 10% profit in 9 trading days
I'm now back in on the inside bar 1 day ago to test another rally - It might not work - what I can tell you is both the trade at #A and the one at swing #C are BOTH Gann Secondary reactions which are the foundations of those Harmonic GEOMETRIC patterns IG show - they don't always form perfectly but when they do they work lovely for big profits
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Following on from with the NETW chart above showing the Gartley:
Its VITAL for you to take the geometry 1 step further - you can wing it without, but to really nail things down, it would be prudent to understand and KNOW geometrical relationships
I've worked out all the geometrical relationships for all the ratios
So for example If a market retraces to a 61.8% level and a ABCD is working out, its highly probable that the CD leg will reach 161.8% of the AB leg from C - that's because 1.618 and 61.8% are linked intrinsically - 61.8% is the INVERSE of 161.8%
Take the NETW chart:
Price retraced to exactly 50% level - this is NOT a Fib number its ratio related to the SQUARE - from the chart below have a stab in the dark of the number % that 50% is the Inverse of..............................................
That's right 200% - Once you know these ratios, you no longer have to scratch your head wondering why a market does things at certain levels
Look how the market reacted once it balanced the prior main retracement of 50% at the 200% level - obviously important!
Thought these markets were meant to be random?????????????????????????????????????
The expectation would be a rally upwards from that zone
THT
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So how do we make money from all these geometrical ratios?
Well if you look for absolute perfection, you'll never make any money as you'll have far too many lines on your chart - you can use perfection ratio's in hindsight for confirmation etc
If you follow HM Gartley and all the others that followed his methods then you can simplify things - please bear in mind that a market can work to the following simplified ratios:
AB to CD swing ratio projections : 0.5 / 0.618 / 0.786 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.618 / 2 / 2.236 / 2.618 and 3.14
Internal Retracements: 0.382 / 0.5 / 0.618 / 0.786 and 0.886
External Projections of the BC swing: 1.272 / 1.618 / 2 / 2.236 / 2.618 and 3.14
I really really encourage you to investigate this further from authoritative sources such as Larry Pesavento
On the chart below - focus ONLY on the BLUE swing line and until the very end IGNORE the 57.7% Orange Retracement ratio line
What I am going to show you happens LOTS and Lots and Lots! - on the differing ratios listed above
In this example I'm showing you a BEARISH GARTLEY ABCD on an INTERMEDIATE swing timeframe - the perfect ABCD have 1:1 relationship so swing CD = the length of swing AB - in the example below that isn't the case, BUT it still worked because it all linked on the GEOMETRY!
OK swing (A) to (B) retraced just short of the 78.6% level of the 0 to (A) decline at which point it reversed - a cheeky short at the 61.8% or 50% level would have brought you profits
Swing (A)-(B) retraced between 50-61.8% at (C) within this, price retraced the minor a-b swing a smidge past the 78.6% retracement level - IF (and it was) price was bullish this this zone could be significant in stopping the price fall
I won't go into the buy here, but you can buy at or around (C) zone - because as you're looking for a ABCD swing, we can trade the Internal swings it creates or just look for a trade at point (D) - up to you as a trader
So to calculate the (D) level zone:
As this a GARTLEY we're looking for then (D) HAS to be below point 0 - so below the blue swing high to the left of this chart
We still have the 78.6% and 88.6% retracement levels of that swing on the chart in blue
You would take a projection of swing (A) to (B) and project it from (C) - as you can see this gave 2 price extensions of 61.8% and 78.6% in PINK
You'd also take an External projection of the (B) to (C) retracement swing and that gave a 127.2% level right in that zone where other key geometric levels landed - green line
Lo and behold price reversed right in this zone as expected - IF price had exceeded point 0 then the whole trade would have been off and invalidated
Now within that chart on the green and red swing file lines there's also other geometrical patterns including a ABCD - If you lokk at the swing low # (A) up to the Nov 5th swing high (not labelled) that was a ABCD (CD = 2.236 times the AB swing) AND right up into a61.8% retracement level of the 0-(A) decline! 2 confirming geometrical ratios around the same same and the market stalled!
Look again at 0-(A) decline - that's a ABCD right there too! - the market is BUILT out of these ABCD's!!!!!!!!!!
Remember folks - the "Experts" tell you, you can't buy bottoms or sell tops - Oh yes you can
On this very chart right now - the market is INCH UK stock - Its heading down into KEY resistance - see bottom chart for details
For the purist's out there we can see that price stopped 0.18p lower than the 57.7% retracement level of (A) to (B) swing = related to the CUBE and the Square root of 3
Not shown on the chart is the 150% external projection of the (B) to (C) swing - it goes right through the SELL word and (D) - price didn't reach it exactly, but it was not far away from it!
Briefly - there's an ABCD- right near the 78.6% retracement level = BUY
You could have sold a #B in anticipation of a 1:1 ABCD swing
On the chart the boxes are from my software - as price has taken out the prior swing low (our old (C) in the chart example above) this is NOT a gartley trade, its now classified as a Butterfly - which has differing ratio parameters
Butterfly:
Gartley:
THT
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OK so we KNOW that the markets work to geometrical ratio's, those ratio's are key integral ratios of geometrical shapes - Again in the 1930's there was a trader named HM Gartley (another trader from the 1930's!!!!!!) - Gartley identified lots of patterns using swing files of the market and published them - I would encourage you to explore his works and those works of people who have copied his methods and updated them for this generation of readers
All I've wanted to show you is that the markets are NOT doing what all the "expert" commentators are spouting on about - the markets work out to geometrical ratios as it BUILDS (expands) or contracts the geometrical shape its building in higher dimensions
In the chart below:
Look at how PRECISE the SP500 Index stopped on levels this past week - when turns occur within 0-2 points of ideal perfection its as good as perfection/ideal!
If you get/look at the Gartley patterns then you be on your way to seeing the market differently and precisely - its not perfect or exact but that work will give you a good grounding and knowledge as well as exceptional trading methods that often catch tops and bottoms
THT
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We'll not have a 2008 event for a long-time - there will be big plunges and 25% corrections along the way, they are a given along with a couple of bear market periods - but the ultra long term trend is upwards until the cycle ends in the mid 2030's
The market is pre-BUILT - Its working through geometrical ratios - once its hit a key level it will reverse trend - the only problem as traders is we don't know exactly the geometrical shapes the market moves to all the time - I know this is hard to understand and visualise - as it works out and through its next move, trading opps will show up
The reason the SP500 has crashed is it hit 1.902% which meant it reached to within 1 point the diagonal of a golden rectangle - once price reaches the geometrical shape its building it turns - I think what will happen is people will attach the reasoning of earnings season to it, but its always after the fact, like generic economic reasoning
Yeah the key is working out what type of market you're in fast and when the trend changes, what worked prior, no longer works - the other key is staying solvent long enough to pick up the trades once the prior trend comes back into play as well as trading other markets
I wrote a piece the other month on selling the "hooks" - the FTSE100 Index just provided that very short trade opportunity today
If unsure, just stay out of the market in cash until things become a bit more clearer - a gann secondary reaction is a indicator to the start of a possible new rally, if that happens at a key retracement level of a bigger move then it could be significant
THT
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Okay, If you've followed the thread, you'll know I've made some wild (but reasonable) claims about the markets and specifically what they are doing unbeknown to 99.9% of people out there
Here's another one:
First some history as you might not be aware of this
I'm pretty sure in the posts above I published how the SP500 hit 666.79 at the March 2009 LOW from a calculation based on the Square root of 5 expansion series, this is a ratio of 2.236
Pythagoras - do some research on him, learn where he learned - then look to see what he's showing in the picture below - he's telling people without actually telling them - look at the geometrical symbols, music references etc
This is a Canon of Proportion showing some of the main key geometrical ratios - take 10 mins to study it and think - The vast majority of traders just look at Fibonacci, we can see its there forming geometrical ratios both in excess of a whole 1 and also below 1 - but other ratios exist in the divine growth and contraction of things and this applies to the markets too!
This is the WEEKLY SP500 Index:
The week ending 7th January 2022, the SP500 possibly topped out, the ascent from March 2020 is absolutely impossible for the market to maintain forever - the Gann angle is also way too steep to maintain ongoing without a decent break/pause
Talking of our man WD GANN he said over 100 years ago "When Price and Time EXCEED the price and/or time of any prior correction in a trend, then watch for a potential change of trend" - that has now happened on the PRICE side (from March 2020)
On the chart below the key aspect is the price projection level of (A) - (B) from (A) @ (C) = 1.902 or 190.2%
In the sacred canon of proportion above is that ratio there?
What is 1.902 a ratio of? Well its the DIAGONAL of a Golden Rectangle
So from (A) to (C) the market has traversed a golden rectangle - again a trader with knowledge of Sacred Geometrical ratios could have had that precise level (among lots of others) on their charts from Feb/March 2020! Look how close the market came to that level! That sort of accuracy tells you its [the market] non-random
What next for the market?
That depends on the next geometrical section its forming - The key will be to see what retracement ratio level stops the fall - in the chart above I've just shown Key levels, price might stop on a hidden level that exists
For those Interested get a DAILY chart of the SP500 and look to see what retracement ratio level stopped the price rally/correction in Jan 2022 to within points
Permission is not granted to copy or replicate this post
THT
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54 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Meanwhile the US500 is trying to decide what it's doing. Came through a 50% but seems to have stalled at the daily 20MA. Interesting movements from December, why do I get the feeling it's due a big retracement given its stayed above the weekly 20MA since the 2020 crash. It just can't maintain this. Out of interest do you ever short markets or do you just concentrate on one side. For stock markets being long only might make sense to limit the number of trades and given the positive skew. In currency/commodity markets I guess it's more 50/50.
Oh it'll retrace at some point - If you look at my Time Cycle thread, there's a date for 2022 shown - I'd be on high alert around that date for increased volatility which may or may not lead to anything
Yeah I short markets, but only if its clear that there's NO bullish uptrend - So in a sideways range I'll short double/triple tops etc - If there's a series of lower lows and lower highs I'll short too but I'm always aware of possible support levels where things "might" change
The recent action of GBPUSD offered shorts down into the support area where it has now turned upwards
The exception to this is if I have a Time Cycle date - I'll have shorts prepared as if you look at the 2020 Feb plunge, it happened quick and fast "out of the Blue"
Yeah the currency and commodity markets offer far better shorting opps as they "spike" more over the weeks and months
THT
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19 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
A 50% level on GBP/USD in progress? Not trading it but looking out for them.
Yep - If you scroll up to the post I made on Friday 7th Jan - https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/10953-tht-market-education-how-to-win/?do=findComment&comment=82988
You'll see the geometrical levels - As well as the other confirming evidence - If you traded this as a DAILY trade you're most likely out, If you traded it based on the WEEKLY chart then you should be still in the position
When multiple geometrical levels are at the same price value it adds weight - BUT it's NOT the be all and end all - as the market can completely disrespect levels, so we never now for certain if a level will hold or not
For the GBPUSD there were multiple confirming factors all in place shouting that the probability of a turn upwards was very highly probable
THT
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I wasn't going to post this, but decided to as it has a multitude of learning aspects to it
GBPUSD
Start from the WEEKLY charts - top down approach - IGNORE the news and any fuzzymentals being reported
the Info on the WEEKLY chart above is enough to get excited - the WEEKLY Timing chart below also helps out
Now from a timing aspect, this is VERY crude - but for this example its close enough - this out of Gann's books/courses BUT it Isn't exact (In typical Gann style he "failed" to mention in plain English how to time things to the day (he hid the information) - You'll just have to take my word that there was 3 proper Gann timing dates that fell on that swing low point of Dec 2021
Now WD Gann in his courses told us to take a swing, count the days/weeks/months and project forward in time to get the next cycle dates - As stated above, Gann didn't tell us the whole truth, but it can be, as in this case "close enough" - As a warning I would NOT trade off static cycles like this - use them as a very rough guide only
Now you can SEE from the April 2018 HIGH to the March 2020 LOW - I've simply projected forward in time various %'s of that Time Range which have in a crude way been pretty close to swing turns - the 1 simply = 100% or like for like timing - for this purpose back in March 2020 we could have projected forward all these future dates and watched as the market neared them - the next and main one is the 100% like for like Time count so traders should be alert from the 18th Feb 2022 for a potential turn point - as it happens proper Gann timing has some very very close dates to the 18th, which should see a turn in the market within 2-3 weeks at most from the 18th!
Now - from the June 2021 HIGH - based on WEEKLY swings, GBPUSD has made a series of lower highs and lower lows, this is a confirmed down trend / bear market and should not be ignored
It's just bounced off 3 differing major retracement levels on the WEEKLY time-frame AND until the current swing EXCEEDS any of the swings UP that have formed the downtrend from the June '21 High, the trend assumption is still BEARISH - when a corrective swing EXCEEDS prior corrective swings it overbalances and as such is a heads up to a possible change of trend or price action - This does NOT mean a reversal, the GEOMETRY has possibly changed, and depending on what the market is working to, could be a reversal, a stalling etc - this is vital to understand
I don't care what the fundamentals or news wires are saying - those geometry retracement levels on the weekly chart shouted out that the level was likely to be important and it proved it was - these levels could have been projected by a trader from the June '21 high!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this might be "it" or the market could go lower - if the geometrical retracements levels low than this level "build" the geometrical structure that the GBPUSD is forming, then the market will head to those levels, regardless of news etc - so as a trader it would be prudent to work out what those potential levels are
For the purposes of this post - I'm just showing you the real reason that the GBPUSD bounced in Dec '21 to present
OK, We've seen that WEEKLY retracements levels are Important, in the grand scheme of things they are more Important and carry more "weight" than the Daily levels
Remember the markets are fractals - fractals can only exist if strict GEOMETRY exists and binds - this happens on 1 minute charts right through to yearly charts, the Image below shows this perfectly - take 2 mins to study the arms/points, you should be able to see the growth and expansion from the smaller pentagram to the next larger pentagram
THIS IS EXACTLY HOW THE USA STOCK MARKETS ARE GROWING/DECLINING
Off on a related Tangent! - If you take each point of the pentagram that you can see, starting with the 0 you move around the circle in 72 degree aspects - The 1974 LOW and the 2009 LOW were separated by 144 degrees in TIME if you know what to use as the Timing source - The recent February 2020 plunge hit 36 degrees which is the inner angle of the pentagram - I could go on - EVERY and I mean EVERY major high and low of the US stock market since it was born in 1792 has landed right on a Pentagram point in TIME
So moving down onto a DAILY chart of GBPUSD
Info on the charts
This is the daily chart of GBPUSD showing Daily price action and the retracement level of the entire up trend - sat perfectly on the 38.2% ret level for a bounce
without the swings shown
with the swings shown
Here's the SP500 Index showing the Indicator certainty which coincided at a previous 50% level on that market - this anomaly in the Indicator happens at least once per year per market on daily time-frames
Permission is NOT granted to share or reproduce this post or its content
Happy and profitable trading
THT
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19 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Yeah ok I find the ones that bounce more or less exactly at 50% easier to pick out as this is what has been happening on US500. But I see it can go down through the level then you need to pick it up as it pushes back up through it.
Yeah that chart was shown on purpose - As markets are not random and they move to geometrical levels, other levels are prevalent so just as the 50% is a nice easy level to find, other levels also exist lower and those levels if they work as per a 50% level, offer more £'s and R's return
Sometimes the geometry levels don't work out
The key thing to remember is if a Swing low point holds and the market is active (not flat) - the markets heading upwards which will mean it will rip through all the technical geometry levels of a swing as it works out its next swing geometry etc
Take that GBPUSD last chart - the low in Dec 2021 @ 88.6% is a geometry level related to the golden mean - you could have set an entry there with a stop under the swing low you were basing the retracement off in early Dec or you could have set an alarm, waiting for the 88.6% level to be hit in the same manner as we do for a 50% level and then placed a buy order
Depending on how the position was managed for a risk of 25-50 pips for a 200-400 pip return or 8+R
THT
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11 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Yeah I did catch that, I was basically wrapping up for Christmas but thought it was worth a go, got 4+R out of it.
As an aside, I was having a look at the performance of an index tracking fund I used to pay into and its up14% for 2021. What I take from this is that last year was a good one for investors given the rebound from the low in April 2020. And to some extent if the markets are trending and you're a long short term trader you should also do ok, that includes using the 50% level method. I suspect if market conditions change the fund will not do so well and the 50% methed also breaks down (I suspect). That's why you need multiple strategies because one won't cut it all the time. I know you've posted a lot more than just the 50% but it's arguably the most beginner friendly.
On the performance of the 50% - you're being spoilt by solely using it on the SP500
I've always said if a method works, it will work on ALL liquid markets and ALL time-frames
Have a look at it on another liquid market, forex, stock, commodity etc
You can make an absolute fortune just from trading the 50% over multiple markets/time-frames
All you have to do is get a swing file on the chart and visually look at all the swings throughout the year - the confidence comes from seeing the patterns 10,000's of times over the years and knowing that the markets are not random and by that fact and the fact that they work out to geometry - there will ALWAYS be 50%'s - ALWAYS forever and ever
If it breaks down on one market it will be present on many others
On the buy and hold comment:
If you go to my Time Cycle thread - I show the 16-19 year cycle - this cycle creates a UP/DOWN (Sideways) market direction sequence, also in the thread there's a couple of comments about "there's no certainties in the markets", well the sequence IS one of the very few certainties in the markets! - anyway - the last UP sequence started end 2016 and should produce 1000-2000% in total + divs for the 16-19 years that the cycle will last from 2016
If you look at the last 2 UP cycles (1949-1966 and 1982-2000) there both produced 1000% growth - so I expect the same - then during the down cycle that will follow the UP cycle at some point 50% of those gains will be wiped out as the markets crashes 50% (again this is ANOTHER certainty in the SP500)
For Investors of late, those who bought the 2009 low timed things to perfection and it proved to be the best point to buy - usually/often during the DOWN cycle 16-19 yr phase the last 3 years end in a bear market, that didn't happen this time around - so we'll have a huge number of Investors who think they are Investing gods just from buying and holding who'll be singing into the 2030's
Once the market has "built" this next stage in the cube, it'll top out and crash- "catching out" 99.9% of people out there - this is going to be very Interesting as the next DOWN cycle is expected to be the TOP of the current cube and also at the same time it'll be the BOTTOM of the next expanding cube
Trackers during this period will also do well as they track the market upwards and downwards at which they'll not do too well, handing back profits or losing
During this next UP cycle we'll have good trending markets but also sideways periods too
THT
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2 hours ago, skyreach said:
BLAME THE PANDEMIC!!!
IT IS ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN EXPERTS BLAME A SPECIFIC CAUSE FOR THINGS GOING WRONG. THOUGH THE FACTS AND EMPIRICAL STATISTICS GIVE INDICATORS OF A WORSENING STATISTIC THE ACTUAL REAL PRIMARY CAUSER IS MISSED. SO WE END UP WITH A FLASH REPORTING, IN A WAY.
INFLATION HAS BEEN A PROBLEM FOR SOME YEARS BUT WHERE AND HOW IT GOT DISTRIBUTED APPARENTLY IS NOT CLEAR TO MANY ECONOMISTS, CASE IN POINT:
"The coronavirus pandemic has led to a new era of inflation inequality, economists warn, in which poor households bear the brunt of rising prices. "
HYPERINFLATION IN THE STOCK MARKETS AND THE PROPERTY MARKETS IS MISSED.
COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN SHOOTING UP CAUSING HIGHER INPUT PRICES TO ALL INDUSTRIES, AND HENCE TO FOOD PRICE RISES, PLUS THE SEASONAL INCREASE THAT OFTEN ALSO TAKES PLACE TOO. A BIG CAUSE, MISSED, OR GETS UNDERPLAYED.
CORONAVIRUS IS AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR THAT CAME IN BUT IS NOT THE MAIN CAUSE THAT IS BEING MADE OUT TO BE, BY SOME. PEOPLE ANALISE BY ASSOCIATION WITH FACTORS THEY CAN LINK TO, RATHER THEN TO SEARCH IN-DEPTH FOR THE PRIMARY CAUSE FACTORS, WHICH MAY GO BACK IN TIME.
WE COME ACROSS THIS TOO OFTEN IN THE MEDIA REPORTS TOO. THEY OFTEN REPORT A CAUSE THAT CRASHES THE MARKET WHEN IN FACT IT DID NOT. THE TREND WAS ALREADY IN PLACE PRIOR TO THAT EVENT AND THE EVENT TEMPORARILY (SHORT TERM) WENT ALONG WITH THAT TREND.
IT IS A LITTLE WONDER WHY MOST ECONOMISTS AND BANKERS (AT LEAST IN THE PUBLIC DATA PRESENTED AS OPPOSED TO THEIR REAL PRIVATE VIEWS) GIVE US MISGUIDED CONCLUSIONS.
FUTURE POSSIBILITY
CHINA'S PROPERTY MARKET CAUSING AN EARTHQUAKE THAT IS BEING PLAYED DOWN. IT CANNOT GET OUT OF THE MESS IT HAS TRAPPED ITSELF IN -- NO MANIPULATIONS THE STATE OR THE BANKING SYSTEM CAN AND WHEN THAT IS APPLIED THEN IT ONLY DELAYS IT AND MAKES IT FAR MORE WORSE.
THE REAL FACTORS WERE NOT HANDLED IN THE FIRST PLACE -- PITY. PROFESSIONALS SEEM TO HAVE A HABIT OF REPEATING THE SAME MEGA BAD PRACTICES BECAUSE THEY ARE ENTICED BY THE "SHOT CUTS" AND "EASY MEANS" TO BIG FAT PROFITS FAST.
ONE OTHER POINTER:
FINANCIAL HISTORY SHOWS THAT WHEN NYSE MARGIN DEBT LEVELS REACH ALL-TIME HIGHS, A BULL MARKET IS NEARING ITS END. NOTABLE EXAMPLES INCLUDE THE STOCK MARKET TOPS OF 1987, 2000 AND 2007.
Agree with most of the above - I remember being with a major UK fund m,anagement group on D-Day October 2008 as the FTSE100 Imploded (as a guest at a conference they organised) - Did not have a clue what had/was happening and were totally clueless as to the bottom of the market
That day changed my life - I began researching the markets for myself, so agree with you totally on the experts not knowing what's going on
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Price Inflation can be monitored in a rough sense from the "Soft" Commodity sectors - these sectors typically work in unison with energy especially household energies
I published the following in the Time Cycles thread - the sequence in price can, does and HAS Inverted, HOWEVER, the sequence in TIME - NEVER Inverts or alters!
By BEING on the RIGHT side of the expected action you can WIN
The SEQUENCE is there right in the post for you to see, bank for the future etc etc etc
https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/13746-time-cycles/?do=findComment&comment=73143
From the SEQUENCE you should be able to work out the year the TOP/HIGH is expected, what should happen after the high/top and until WHEN and so on
THT
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As I'm reviewing trades for the year, thought I'd show you part of my THT Precision Sacred Geometry trade method
You've already had multiple previews in some of the posts above, here's a recent on I took inside my SIPP and ISA accounts
FTSE100 Index:
Right hand side of the chart - fro the BLUE A
Might be good to refer back to my CIRCLES post I showed on the FTSE100 and notice WHEN and WHERE swing high A topped out!!!!!!!
REMEMEBER - EVERYTHING in the markets works out to geometry - Triangles, Squares, Circles, Cubes, Squares joined together etc - you can lean about this in Robert Lawlors Sacred Geometry book
So from the TOP at A, Run a retracement from A to swing low 1 = price rallies just past 52% to form swing high 2 - this retracement could cause you confusion as it stops at the 50% and the 52.6% levels sloppily (not precise), if it had stopped precisely on 1 of the ratios it would have given you the heads up as to what geometry the swing was working to, so at this point its created a THT Sell the Hook method detailed in a post above and it also allows you to project ratio levels to see if anything more precise occurs
All this can be done once price goes below swing low #1:
We want to see if there's any geometry that syncs up - the geometry of A,1 and 2 is either GEOMETRIC (Fibonacci) or HARMONIC (The Square)
swing low 3 up to swing A will produce many levels of BOTH geometries, so we then run a projection of A-1 from either swing high 2 or swing high A - this produces many projections but the only 2 that are so close are on the chart at swing low 3 - BOTH the retracement of 70.7% and the 200% projection are from the HARMONIC geometry
Remember NO price is printed on the chart when the above projections were made
So we had 2 different geometrical ratios/projections of the same geometric group landing on a price of 6996, When this happens it is fine to set a buy order at 6998 with a 15 point stop (daily charts) or an alarm at the price level and wait for a penetration through it and then buy if it rallies back up through the price level with an even tighter stop
Remember WD Gann said "When price and time balance/square, price will reverse"
As long as you have multiple confirming signals then trading this precise is fine
The ensuing rally did as it should from the levels and just failed to exceed swing high A - then price fell down into C - which again was halted by the 70.7% retracement level which is related to the Square, so #3,#B, #C were printing price in accordance to the square and its harmonics - you get the picture
From a TIMING perspective - Run a timing projection of the swing #A to 3 and project it from #B - 70.7% of that time period lands smack bang on 20th Dec which price formed swing low #C at the 70.7% price retracement level!
When everything syncs and squares its beautiful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You CAN'T do the above on every swing, but you CAN do it on enough throughout the year to A) Predict the market very precisely at times and B) to make extremely high R profits
As you can SEE - the markets aren't moving randomly as lots of books tell you, there's an order
I won't show anymore of this going forward as it can be confusing to some, If you are interested then seek out those traders who use geometry, namely Fibonacci and Elliott Wave traders and then you MUST expand on their work as just trading Fib levels won't cut it, Elliott Wave traders will give you a GROUNDING only, but you must remember the big Elliott Wavers out there have been calling for a major top/high in the market since 1986!!!!!!!!! It's never come and its won't - but they can give you a decent grounding in Fibonacci ratio work, but its only a grounding
Thanks for reading and wishing you all the best for 2022
THT
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On 20/12/2021 at 22:57, u0362565 said:
Thanks again for your posts this year. It's refreshing to see someone talk candidly about their trading methods and it's certainly helped me achieve a 20% return this year. Just a bit better than my bank savings rate.. Of course I could throw all that away but it's a decent cushion and something to work with.
Merry Christmas!
Thanks - SP500 and FTSE100 just gave another 50%!
I know what you mean about bank rates - you will definitely beat the bank if you employ the method strictly - Its got triple digit returns all over it per year if used correctly and I know that from 1st hand experience
Yeah its a shame I'm the only one on here helping others, I would have gone further and published up coming trades as proof of concept, but when I joined the forum it had a resident idiot who thought they knew it all and tried to challenge everything you wrote, so I decided not to publish too much - Its one of the reasons I've never officially published anything, I couldn't think of anything more soul destroying than dealing with the 1% of the public who are plain stupid and idiotic - even before I posted my 1st post on here I made a pact with myself that if the forum had 1 of those people then I wouldn't be posting anything to helpful
All the best for 2022
BoE set to walk the line between inflation and recession
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
People need to be ready for 5% rates - The ONLY way to control Inflation in an Inflationary cycle is by raising int rates
This fits in perfectly with the 21/22 year Interest rate cycle (which triggered in 2000)
If traders, Investors and analysts looked further back in time - they would SEE the sequence markets work to and the economic factors within each sequence, it then allows you to be able to predict/forecast the cycle and along with that the expected economic factors related and prevalent within each of the cycles (There's only 2 types of cycle!)