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PIA_First_IC

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  1. Monthly: Trading within a bearish channel formation. Trend line resistance is seen at 1.2583. Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 1.2522 (from 1.6038-1.0349) attract sellers. We trade to the lowest level in 9 months. This area has acted as resistance in 2016 and 2017 (1.1714 and 1.1616) and now acts as support Weekly: After posting a bearish Outside Week (week 16th April) the major currency pair has broken the Ending Wedge formation to the downside. Six weeks of net losses have resulted in signals for sentiment being at oversold extremes. A 13 (exhaustion count) has been posted on the weekly chart. Levels close to the 261.8% extension level of 1.1490 (from 1.2557-1.2149) have found buyers. This timeframe offers a Morning Star formation and suggests dips will be bought. Bespoke resistance is at 1.1960. A rally to this level could then form a Bearish Head and Shoulders. Intraday 2-Hours: The first corrective leg has been complete with an AB=CD formation at 1.1830. We have seen a correction to the downside. Intraday 4-Hours: Using forward projection, a larger AB=CD formation to target bespoke resistance at 1.1960 would require dip buying at 1.1635. This is the 61.8% pullback level of the last rally (1.1510-1.1837). With these facts in mind, we look to buy into further dips for the next drive higher in the AB=CD formation (buying the CD leg) We look to Buy at 1.1670 Stop: 1.1550 Targets: 1.1950 and 1.2020 In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  2. Buying dips in EURJPY offers ample risk/reward. Monthly: The long-term outlook is bearish for the cross with an Outside Month posted from February. The Ichimoku cloud capped buying. The Marabuzo level (mid-point form open and close) is located at 132.74 Daily: Levels below bespoke support at 129.58-45 continue to find buyers. We are close to a Demark exhaustion count on the daily chart. Intraday (two-hours) – Another dip to our bespoke support could possibly form a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Buying close to this zone (129.77-128.58) offers a good risk/reward set up. On a break of 132.00 the measured move would be 134.75 In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  3. Looking for rallies to be limited in GBPUSD this week with the medium-term bias switching to negative on selling rallies. Monthly: Likely to post two Inside Harami candles, a clear sign of investor indecision. Weekly: Moving higher in a bullish channel formation. Although we have reacted lower from the 50% pullback level of 1.4346 (from 1.7192-1.1500) there is no clear reversal formation and dips continued to find buyers. Trend line resistance is currently situated at 1.4554. Bespoke resistance is seen at 1.4406, just above the previous high. We look for this level to hold back buying. Daily: We have seen a reaction lower from the 161.8% extension of 1.4168 (from 1.3710-1.4168). If GBPUSD breaks the previous high we are likely to see bearish divergence, the oscillator making a lower high (while the price makes a higher high), often a sign of exhaustion. We are looking at selling at 1.4400, stop 1.4600, with a target at 1.3810 In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  4. Looking at NZDUSD today. It could be extremely lively with both the FOMC tonight and the RBNZ interest rate decision tonight. USD INDEX- The USD is stuck in a bullish channel formation. Trend line resistance is seen at 90.60. If we see a rejection of gains then a stronger, AB=CD formation looks to target the 61.8% pullback level at 89.28 and beyond. The long-term bias remains bullish, but the intraday outlook is mixed. With this in mind, we prefer to buy USD dips Monthly: Holding within a range (0.7460-0.6680). There is very little to take away from this timeframe. Weekly: Looks to be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. A break of 0.6740 is needed to confirm Intraday (six-hours) – Yesterdays Marabuzo level is seen at 0.7210 (mid-point from open and close). Bespoke resistance is seen at 0.7208. Selling rallies in morning trade offers good risk/reward today with a stop placed above 0.7245. Intraday support is seen at 0.7106 In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  5. Looking to GBPCHF this week and buying dips. Although the long-term outlook remains to the downside, the strength of the initial move higher highlights a dip buying opportunity this week. Monthly: With a five-wave pattern now complete (Elliott Wave formation) the bias is for a corrective move higher. The monthly Ichimoku Cloud has capped the initial rally. Weekly: Mixed trading for the last 74 weeks has formed a bearish Ending Wedge pattern. Although this pattern has an eventual bias to break lower, last weeks bullish Engulfing formation offers an immediate upside bias. The Marabuzo level (mid-point form open and close) is located at 1.3039. A pivotal level is 1.3414 Daily: Five consecutive positive daily performances in succession. We have stalled at the 50% pullback level of 1.3177 (from 1.3491-1.2862). There is ample scope for a correction lower before the next correction rally higher resumes. With the 78.6% pullback level being close to the aforementioned 1.3414, this is our prime target zone this week (1.3342-1.3414) Intraday (four-hours) – Numerous reasons to buy dips: Stalled at the trend of higher highs The initial move higher is impulsive; therefore, the correction lower should be corrective. 50% pullback level at 1.3027 Bespoke support at 1.3027 The move lower could form a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Intraday (six-hours) – If the cross stalls and reverses higher from our buy trigger then an AB=CD formation is seen at 1.3360 (inside our target zone) In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  6. USD INDEX- Close to a critical point. There is scope for further selling towards 89.20-88.80 zone to possibly form a Right Shoulder of a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. The intraday bias is to sell into rallies Looking away from USD majors to EURJPY today as buying dips offers ample risk/reward in a counter trend move. Monthly: In a huge triangle formation. Stalled at a previous congestion zone with levels above the Ichimoku Cloud finding sellers. With the presence of a bearish Outside Month, the long-term outlook is negative. Last month’s Marabuzo (mid-point from open and close) is located at 132.76 Daily: Posted a Demark correction 9 count with level under our bespoke support zone (129.58-129.41) finding buyers. Bullish Outside Day posted at the low. This often indicates the change of a trend. The rally has stalled close to a previous congestion zone. What was support, now becomes resistance. There is ample scope for a further correction lower to buy into. Intraday ( one-hour) – Expect the move lower to be mixed and volatile. The78.6% pullback level of 129.82 is close to bespoke support at 129.60. We look to buy in this zone. Although we expect limited upside (after the strong initial selloff) buying dips offers ample risk/reward with a target close to 132.45 (we suggest a 70 pip stop) In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result
  7. We failed to trigger our short. We now look to cancel the SELL trade idea GBPJPY weekly wedge support
  8. USDJPY Although signals are far from strong, the presence of a Demark 9 count on the weekly chart highlights scope for a corrective bounce. Also, we see value (risk/reward) on buying dips this week. Here is the technical picture: USD INDEX Daily – With the last 5th wave sequence completed at 88.15 (Elliott Wave formation), the long-term bias now swings to the upside. We look for dips to be bought and the 88.15 low to hold. Intraday (four-hours) – We look for price to move lower in a choppy and corrective formation. Resistance seen at 90.45, support at 89.20-88.80 (intraday rallies to be sold, dips bought) USDJPY Monthly: Possibly forming a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders pattern (a break of 126.00 is needed to confirm). Although USDJPY initially moved higher from the 50% pullback level of 100.57 (from 75.30-125.85), sellers have re-emerged. The selloff would need to stall soon, or we would be looking for lower levels towards 91.57 (AB=CD formation target) Weekly: Pushed through the 61.8% pullback level last week (from 98.82-118.66). Trend line support is seen at 104.30. DeMark has posted a correction 9 count (9/9). This normally dictates a move to the upside within 4 candles (weeks) Daily – The move lower has been mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequence. An AB=CD formation target is located at 103.40. Demark posts a 6 from 13 (exhaustion count) so scope for further selling at the start of the week (until we reach 13) Daily (2) – We have a 261.8% extension level at 104.54 (from 114.73-110.84). This is close to the previously mentioned trend line support. Intraday (eight-hours) – Forming an Ending Wedge pattern. Trend line support is seen at 104.60. The wedge is given more relevance with the chart highlight bullish divergence (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. On a break of 107.40, the measured move target is 113.37. Summary: Although we have no clear signal of a reversal (as yet), the technical bearish picture is close to exhaustion. Further losses in the USD index also look limited. Buying USDJPY on dips between 104.60 and 103.60 with a stop at 102.60 and a long-term target at 113.00 offers substantial risk/reward this week. In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  9. Technical USD INDEX- Is the dollar rally overdone? Daily – The daily chart highlights the index stalling and reversing higher close to the 261.8% extension level of 88.19 (from 95.11-92.47). Bullish Outside Day posted from the low. The rally has now stalled and the opposite formation shown (Bearish Outside Day), this often indicates a top is in place Intraday (four-hours) – The move to the upside has fallen short of the 261.8% extension level of 91.32 (from 88.15-89.36). However, 5 waves can be seen to the upside (first wave patterns are normally the most dis-jointed) We now look for a move lower in a choppy manner as we correct towards 89.20-88.80 (61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci pullback levels) and a possible right shoulder of a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders formation. We then expect buyers to return. Summary: In the short term (intraday) we look to sell into USD strength. Prime resistance at 90.50-55 Over the medium-term we look to buy dips close to 89.20-88.80 In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  10. Having another look at GBPJPY this week as all time-frames are highlighting a downward bias on selling into rallies. Monthly: After the monthly Ichimoku Cloud had capped buying, follow through selling is likely to form an AMR (Acute Monthly Reversal Candle). In this scenario a Bearish Outside Candle Weekly: Holding within a bearish Ending Wedge pattern. On a break of trend line support at 144.90 the target (start of the edge) is 135.60. The Marabuzo from week 5th February (midpoint from open and close) is seen at 152.86 Intraday (four-hours) – Mixed trading for the last 9 days has resulted in the cross forming a corrective channel formation. Upside barriers are: 2% Fibonacci pullback level at 151.33 (from 156.61-147.96) Bespoke resistance at 151.35 Trend line resistance is seen at 151.75 Aforementioned Marabuzo level at 152.86 Selling at 151.30 with a stop at 153.30 and a target of 135.60 (wedge target) offers a reward to risk ratio of 7.85/1 (we would recommend moving the stop to entry on a move through 144.90) In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  11. Looking away from the majors today and to a solid set-up in GBPCAD. This cross not only offers a sound technical outlook in its ‘own rights’ but also lines up with the correlated view (GBPUSD bearish USDCAD bullish – GBPCAD BEARISH) Monthly: The long-term bias remains bullish. With the 50% pullback level at 1.8088 (from 2.0970-1.5205) lining up with the Ichimoku cloud, this is the obvious upside target (barrier). With last month’s Marabuzo level located at 1.7200, and bespoke support at 1.7180, we look for limited downside. Weekly: The most important factor in this timeframe is that the current trading zone has been pivotal from Q3/Q4 2014 and Q3 2016. Intraday (four-hours) – The most important timeframe in this counter trend forecast. Looks to be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. We have posted a DeMark 13 on the daily chart. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.7568. As long as we fail to post a weekly close above this important resistance, the outlook is negative. In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
  12. We are coming out of this view going into today figures
  13. USD INDEX- The index has stalled at the 161.8% extension level of 90.25 (from 88.26-89.49). Although the med-term bias remains bullish for the US dollar, some currency majors are highlighting scope for a deeper correction. Bespoke support is seen at 89.94. If we see a break of this area then further support is seen at 89.61, a possible right shoulder of a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders formation. We look for the deeper correction to buy into. For this reason, we look for an upside correction to sell into EURUSD this week. Monthly: In a large corrective channel formation. The trend of lower lows in seen at 1.2670. We have stalled and pulled back from the 38.2% pullback level of 1.2517 (from 1.6038-1.0341) Weekly: A possible Ending Wedge formation. Trend line support is seen at 1.1978. The previous swing low is seen at 1.1553. With bespoke support at 1.1593, we expect a ‘bounce’ higher from this solid support area. Daily: Stalled in front of the 261.8% extension level of 1.2620(from 1.1551-1.1959). The move higher can bee seen in 5 waves (Elliott Wave). With bespoke support located at 1.2123, our risk/reward would be poor to sell from current levels. Intraday (four-hours) – We have stalled at the 161.1% extension level of 1.2212 (from 1.2539-1.2337). The intraday chart (1 hour) posts a DeMark exhaustion 13. Often the indication of a change in the current trend. For these reasons, we look to sell into rallies. Bespoke resistance is seen at 1.2330-40. This area has been pivotal (swing high from 17th January 1.2324 / swing low from the 30th January at 1.2337). In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.
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