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ChrisB

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About ChrisB

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  1. All trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. Dow Having leapt higher into Q4, the Dow is firmly back in an uptrend – even given its extended move, it is still not ripe for much selling. However, a disappointing NFP might provide the hit to risk appetite that could prompt a drop back towards 22,400 or even lower, but this would still constitute, I suspect another opportunity to ‘buy the dip’ thanks to strong seasonal trends.
  2. All trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. EURUSD is one to watch ahead of NFPs, given the current weakness. NFPs are likely to be weak thanks to the hurricane impact, which didn’t show up in the August figures, so any improvement above expectations, or better-than-expected rise in earnings, could push EURUSD lower. The $1.1662 level is key, being the low from mid-August. A break of that and it could well prompt a swift move lower. With Catalonia hanging over eurozone assets euro bulls will find it hard to move higher, but a push above the end-Sept high at $1.1830 would b
  3. That's the one! I remember watching it rally and wondering if we'd see the trend reassert itself, which lo and behold it did.
  4. 10500 would mark it I think, I'm always cautious about calling turns though (I always say, 'when it's happened, I'll let you know'). I tend to watch the monthly chart as well for a broader trend, then look to movements against that trend for potential opportunities. I'm still kicking myself about that July one.
  5. 'Sell the rally' has been the default option for USDJPY here this year (worked a treat in July), but not surprisingly that big round Y100 number is certainly making life interesting. It's too early IMO to call an end to the ongoing downtrend, but it will be interesting to see how the next bounce in the pair does...
  6. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be a particularly encouraging earnings season for US banks. Stock markets in the US are at all-time highs, leaving little room for the sector to disappoint, since any sour news from the banks would likely cause the market to head rapidly lower. Having solidly outperformed the broader S&P 500 since July 2011, the index took a heavy tumble at the beginning of 2016, and remains below the S&P 500 as the latest reporting period gets underway. Year-to-date, the SP& 500 is up 5.3%, with the banking sector down 10.7%. A contrarian view might suggest t
  7. A lot is already ‘baked in’ I suspect, given how much a 25 bps cut has been expected. But why would you want to go all out this month when so much data is yet to arrive? Better, at least on the QE (or similar) front to wait until August and the Quarterly Inflation Report, or even into Sept/Oct when more figures are available? The big risk is that they run out of options well before they’re needed.
  8. Quite the day! Market forecasts (per Bloomberg) now have just a 4% chance of a June move, back to where it was before the most recent minutes. US dollar selloff suggests we could see quite a bit of strength in areas like EURUSD and AUDUSD, with the former suggesting that eurozone indices will have a tough time of things. Be aware Janet Yellen speaks on Monday (c. 5.30pm London time) so there is time for the moves today to be reversed. Indices however might find it hard to rally given how bearish people are getting on the US economy.
  9. Looks like the buyers are back in charge for now, 6100 area held and with US markets recovering too we could see another try at 6280 or higher? 
  10. Hi all, It may be that we're seeing the beginning of at least a short-term move higher. I know a lot of people were banging on about a pullback to the 50DMA on the S&P 500, which we've now had. Yesterday may have been the bears' last hurrah for now, especially with earnings season mostly out of the way. 
  11. It has been practically lockstep for weeks now!
  12. Weakness seems to be quite broad based at the minute, with a lot of that down to oil. I quite like the 2hr chart and there's a half decent channel at work: 
  13. It looks like the OPEC hopes have further to run, but WTI needs to get moving above $38 I think to have a real chance of moving on up...
  14. Hi all - interesting times at present on indices. FTSE has been obeying channel lines nicely of late (see chart), so wondering if it'll repeat again and turn back lower?
  15. When Janet Yellen promises, she delivers. That is the message many will take away from the Fed decision tonight. While the press conference is still to come, hopefully bringing with it more clarity on the path for 2016, the absence of dissent and the retention of ‘gradual’ in the statement will mean that, for the next two weeks at least, stock markets can look forward to further gains. Compared to the volatility that might have transpired had they ducked the decision, the reaction has been muted, but then that is probably the outcome Janet was looking for. The problem now is that the easy par
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