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JoshM

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About JoshM

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  1. You guys seen the pretty reliable V-shaped patterns in FTSE over the past 8 months? 5/8 of those months we have seen the market sell-off heavily and bottom out in the middle third of the month (11-20th). Another one to come this month? 
  2. Im still looking at this from a wider perspective considering the impact Thursday's vote will have upon the market. Possibly a big double top pattern in play here. Given that the index is comprised of near enough 70% EUR and GBP, a vote to remain (which seems the likeliest) would bring massive upside for GBP and EUR, likely sending this market back to/below support. Of course this is hugely dependent upon the result. However, this topping pattern could yet be completed by Friday. 
  3. For my ten cents, the markets have certainly been struggling for a while now, with the Dow in particular attempting and failing to create new highs over the past 8 months. The interesting thing is that should we see new highs created for the Dow, I do not think there is the same emphasis for a sharp rally to push significantly onwards. However, of course any downturn could result is a substantial deterioration relatively quickly. As such, the higher the likes of the Dow gets, the less attractive it has is. The Brexit threat is of course going to be a key driver of volatility over the next week, yet I feel that should we see a 'remain' vote, the upside would be substantially smaller than the negative impact of a 'Brexit'. Then again, that goes for GBP too.
  4. Yep, never advisable to open positions ahead of big fundi releases. Definitely need a proper break. An hourly or 4-hour close below 17564 was needed, but didnt happen. Shows the importance of waiting for confirmation!
  5. Dow breaking head and shoulders neckline at 17572. Strong closed candle could see a sharp leg lower. Like you're saying, it could just be a short term thing given the uptrend of late, but 17400 is the next major swing low to look for. H&S target is at 17284. 
  6. This is why I do not use Elliott Wave with my trading. Theres always another way to look at it when it doesnt work out. But if you are making money then you can't argue with that. Good luck
  7. I agree that the sellers are likely to return soon enough. But how you trade it depends on the length of time you hold for really. Has provided a relatively consistent intraday uptrend of late, so I dont mind taking a short term position for a continuation of that rally. However, this pullback certainly has the look of something a little different given the inability to break higher on two times of asking now. I take my trades at the 76.4% which hasnt been hit on this occasion so no position for me right now.
  8. Not a big user of Elliott Wave, but we are certainly seeing some nice counts and fibonacci's. That symmetrical triangle is finally breaking out to the upside. Here are the waves as I see them. I would have seen the 4th count at your point (a). Interesting to see how well the Fibonacci retracements are being respected (61.8% on wave 2 and 38.2% on wave 4). Could see this 5th wave move into $1300 (1.61 x Wave 1). However, with next big resistance at the January 2015 high of $1307, I see that $1300-1307 zone as a likely zone we could move towards.
  9. GBPUSD has been utilising the Fibonacci retracements in a very consistant manner over the past week. So far, we have seen price pull back to the 76.4% level (inverse of 23.6%). Given the uptrend in place since the start of the month, will we see another break back higher from the fibonaccis? Interestingly, it will give you around a 3/1 risk to reward ratio for a move back to Friday's 1.4249 high.
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