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JamesIG

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  1. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special dividends 
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying individual instrument, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
    Index   Bloomberg Code Effective Date Dividend Amount AS51   QUB AU 18/09/2018 28.571 TOP40   OMU SJ 19/09/2018 100 AS51     SPK AU 20/09/2018 19.375 XIN9I   601857 CH 21/09/2018 2.22 HIS   27 HK 21/09/2018 50 AEX   RAND NA 24/09/2018 69 How do dividend adjustments work?
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

     
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
     
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. JamesIG
    Heikin-Ashi candles are now available on the IG trading platform for both desktop and mobile. This feature has been one of the more highly requested additions to charts as these types of candles are commonly used by traders looking at identifying trends visually without the need of complex analysis.
     
    How can I see  Heikin-Ashi candles on the IG dealing platform?
    Turning on Heikin-Ashi candles is simple. If you want to see these candles;
    Simply open the main menu by right clicking on the charts Navigate to “Types” and bring up the second menu list Select “Heikin-Ashi” - the candles will appear straight away
       
    How are Heikin-Ashi candles different from regular HLOC candles?
    You can read more about what Heikin-Ashi candlestick are on IG.com, but to see a simple visual on the difference and how these could be used for identifying possible trends, just check out the charts below. Both charts are the same time fame on the same asset, one with regular candles and the other with Heikin-Ashi candles. 
     
    Pic 1: regular candles (and the visual of how to turn H-A candles on)

     
    Pic 2: Heikin-Ashi candles

  4. JamesIG
    We have a great new feature which is available on desktop charts: you can now trade faster by choosing to place a working order directly from the charts, rather than needing to fill out the deal ticket, and take full advantage of our drag and drop stop/limit functions. This new feature should reduce the effort and number of steps required to place an order, remove the need to type, and also offer a clear visual preview of your order before placing. 
    To place your working order straight from the charts...
    Hover your cursor on your desired level (taking advantage of the cross hair to find support and resistance). Right-click on the chart at the desired level. Select “Dealing” and confirm a Buy or Sell order (NB: to speed up the process the order size would auto fill with the last used size by default. In the video below, because no previous trades have been made on this account, a size is entered manually). You can drag up and down your Stop and limit levels (defined as absolute levels) and see your risk reward ratio. Click on the “Place Order” button to confirm. working orders click and drag.webm
  5. JamesIG
    As per the Bloomberg article, the market for Turkish Lira is in dislocation. Volatility in the Lira has posted the biggest four-day surge since 2004 as officials adopt measures to create a scarcity of the currency to prevent a slump in its value days before local elections this weekend.
    The cost of borrowing Lira overnight on the swap market exceeded 1000% because local banks are under pressure to not provide liquidity to foreign investors who want to bet against the currency.
    Consequently, spreads across all TRY crosses have blown out with some banks refusing to make a swap price. We have therefore gone to 'closings only' across all TRY crosses for the time being until we consider the market to have stabilized and will not be accepting new trades for the time being. Minimum Controlled Risk (i.e. guaranteed stop distances) for all pairs has been set to 20%, with non CR (normal stops) set at 1%. You can still trade to close.
    Given volatility it’s impossible to give an accurate indication of the cost of holding TRY positions overnight.
    To all clients holding TRY positions
    Please ensure that you are happy with your positions in TRY going into 10pm GMT, and please remember that swap points are unstable. If you have any questions regarding this please review the "Where to find overnight funding charges on FX pairs" article along with the worked examples on that page. Any additional questions, please add them as a comment below. 
    Where can I keep an eye on swap rates? 
    You can see an indicative overnight swap rate within the IG dealing platform. 'Swap Bid' / 'Swap Offer' rates as shown below can be toggled on/off and show the expected rate for that day. I.e, to view what the expected rates you'll pay or receive on a currency pair at 10pm (GMT) would require you to check the specific currency row at any point on that same day (prior to 10pm). You can read more about that here.

    Further reading
     USD/TRY volatility returns ahead of Sunday's elections
  6. JamesIG
    A trading forum and help and support network for IG clients
    Over the last few months we have been working on a new layout for your Community, as well as adding greater functionality and new content areas. Today is the 'go live' date and we hope you like what you see. Have a browse, and if you have any feedback or suggestions please add a comment below. Maybe take this opportunity to make your first Community post if you haven't already?
    This purpose of this forum is for like-minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities, ask questions, and provide help and support to others.
    Learn strategies and trade ideas from experienced traders Give tips to the Community and share your market knowledge Perfect your trading by discussing ideas with others Get the most out of IG and ask the Community anything regarding trading or IG Anyone can browse the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to post or interact on Community. If you're new to Community and looking for a first step maybe check out the forum, or have a once over of our Community tutorials. We're also curious for any feedback you may have, so add a comment below to have your voice heard. We're always looking to improve our offering based on what traders want - so let us know!

    We migrated the old forum (and added some new features)
    We have migrated over all the posts, likes, 'kudos' and private messages from the previous version of the forum, as well as integrated the Community login with the wider IG eco system so you can enjoy a seamless digital experience between the platform and forum. You should be able to see all your previously posted content under the same Community username as you currently use. 
    New content areas...
    Blogs: We have three blogs which we will be updated periodically.  Market News - Daily morning briefings, index dividend adjustments, and one off articles IG Product Updates - A place to let you know about all the things we roll out IG Community Blog - Competitions, 'Ask the Expert' series, and Community updates Calendar: A way for discussion to be relevant and anchored to a specific date / time / macro event Our Picks: A hand picked showcase of the best IG Community has to offer. If individual client forum posts or comments get a significant number of upvotes then they may also be featured More to be rolled out shortly! ...and a few new features.
    Activity streams: If you're logged in you'll notice you can easily browse things such as 'unread' or 'followed' content. You can save individual search streams so they're available for the next time you log in  Advanced search: An updated and intuitive search functionality Leaderboard: The Leaderboard keeps track of the hottest content and best users each day based on reputation received. You'll increase your chances of getting on here if you post more, receive more likes, and help others Community Profile: Your space in Community. Check yours out by clicking on your username in the top right hand corner
    Access IG Community - anytime, anywhere
    IG Community will be up 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The easiest way to access IG Community is using the top right hand 'Help' drop down in the dealing platform, but you can also access via our mobile apps (look under the help and support section - try it now), or by simply going to community.ig.com

    This initial rollout is only phase one of 'the big Community plan', and we'd love to hear your feedback. What do you like? What would you change if you had the chance? What new areas would you like to see? Let us know using the comments section below. 
    Happy chatting
    IG Community Moderator Team
     
  7. JamesIG
    Poor EoY results helped  pushed the FTSE lower yesterday as miners sold off, whilst the White House threat for further Chinese tariffs had a negative impact on the S&P energy and industrial sector which also suffered. In the US the Fed decided to hold rates ahead of a likely September hike. Range remains in the 1.75 to 2 per cent channel. According to a US trade representative, the refusal of China to meet US demands, along with implementation of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, spurred the decision to increase the 10% tariff to 25% on $200bn worth of Chinese imports. After consecutive losses for the previous couple of days, oil prices rose over the last session as speculators look for a bounce.  BoE widely expected to raise interest rates today. If a hike is confirmed from Threadneedle Street later today, this would only be the second this decade. Video from IGTV talking about the banks interest rate rises is below. Asian overnight: Trade war concerns have come back into focus to see Asian markets on the decline once again. Losses in Asian equity markets are substantial with China's Shanghai Composite down over 2% on the day. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were the big losers amid a sea of red overnight, as markets reacted to the potential of the US to raise a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. Recent tones of dissatisfaction from the Chinese over US blackmail seem to have a basis in this threat, and with the Chinese importing nowhere near $200 billion worth of US goods, this raises questions over what their response will be. The main data point overnight came from Australia, where a sharp rise in the trade balance surplus highlighted the sharp deterioration in imports (-1% from 3%) rather than anything major on the exports side (3% from 4%).
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK PMI focus continues, with the construction sector under the microscope in the morning. That UK theme continues at midday, with the Bank of England widely expected to raise rates for the first time this year. A relatively quiet US session means that there will be a greater focus on wider economic issues and corporate earnings reports. With Caterpillar, Apple, and Tesla all out of the way, today sees reports from the likes of GoPro, Kellogg, and AIG.
    South Africa: US Index futures are also lower but to a lesser extent, and in turn we are expecting a soft start on the Jse Top40 Index today. The dollar has firmed and precious metals remain at depressed prices. Base metals trade mixed this morning. BHP Billiton is down 3.3% in Australia suggestive of a weak start for local diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is down 3% in Asia suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK construction PMI (July): expected to fall to 52.5 from 53.1. Market to watch: GBP crosses

    12pm – BoE rate decision: an increase in interest rates to 0.75% is possible, and would be expected, but given recent weakness in UK data the bank may yet demur once again. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to rise to 220k from 217k. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Barclays saw their H1 profits whittled away amid huge litigation costs and settlements eroded what would have been a 20% rise in pre-tax profits for the firm. Instead, pre-tax profits fell to £1.6 billion, from £2.3 billion after a circa £2 billion pay-out, which includes a £1.4 billion settlement with the US DoJ. Looking behind those charges, the company saw a strong performance, with the UK arm raising pre-tax profits by 30%. Aviva reported a 2% fall in operating profits compared with last year, with the firm citing the impact of disposals, tough market conditions in Canada and higher weather related claims for the fall. Despite this, they expect to see these trends to reverse in H2, with the firm remaining on track to hit their 5% growth target for the year. Their EPS number came in above market estimates, with an operating EPS of 26.8p (vs 25.1p expected). The dividend was increased by 10% to 9.25p per share. Rolls-Royce expects their 2018 earnings results to come in towards the upper end of its guidance range, following a stronger than expected showing from their civil aerospace and power systems businesses. This comes despite a £554 million charge for issues relating to their Trent 1000 engine, which has been shrouded by issues over their durability. That figure will cover the Trent 1000 issues up until 2022. On the earnings side, the firm saw underlying revenues jump 14%, with underlying profits rising by £205 million, to £141 million. Liberty Holdings (SA) Interim results showed normalised headline earnings per share to have increased by 6%  Elementis upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Asos rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    Gamma Communications rated new buy at Citi
    Norma upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Shell cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Sodexo downgraded to market perform at Bernstein
    Subsea 7 downgraded to underperform at Macquarie
    WDP downgraded to neutral at Kempen & Co
     
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. JamesIG
    The Trump house looks to impose 10% tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese goods. Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets drag down the wider overnight Asian session. The bidding war on Sky continues with Murdoch's Fox offering £14/share beating Comcasts previous £12.50. Copper and zinc slide to 1-year low, oil also sharply lower on trade war fears. Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, as Donald Trump has once again ramped up trade war fears, driving away any optimism built in recent days. With Trump starting the process that will ultimately lead to the imposition of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, there is reason to believe we are entering the next stage of the trade war between the two countries. Unsurprisingly we have seen losses across the board overnight, with the heaviest falls centred upon the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. US and European futures are trading lower this morning as well.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, central banks are in focus, with appearances from ECB and BoE governors Mario Draghi and Mark Carney. The big event of the day comes in the form of the Bank of Canada rate decision, where the committee is expected to push interest rates higher for the first time in 2018. Also keep an eye out for US PPI, and crude oil inventories data.
    South Africa: We are expecting a softer open on the local SA index as the trade war narrative see's escalation once again. We have seen some strength returning to the dollar and in turn mostly weaker commodity prices and a softer rand. Tencent is trading 2.3% lower in Asia this morning, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.3% lower in Australia, suggestive of an initial decline for local resource counters. A softer rand is expected to continue to weigh on financial counters as well as local retail counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US PPI (June): forecast to be 0.1% from 0.5% MoM, while core PPI falls to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to remain at 1.25%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 6 July): stockpiles expected to fall by 230,000 barrels from a 1.5 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Sky has agreed new terms for its takeover by 21st Century Fox, with the US firm offering £14 per share, up from the previous £10.75 per share.  
    Burberry reported a 3% rise in like-for-like sales for Q1, and there was no change to full year guidance. 
    Indivior said that guidance for its financial year was ‘no longer valid’, as a rival generic product in the US has a major impact on operations. The revenue impact could be $25 million for 2018. 
    Barratt Developments expects record profit for the year, bolstered by Help to Buy. Pre-tax profits are expected to be £835 million, from £765.1 million a year ago. The firm completed 17,579 homes, compared to 17,395 last year, while the number of plots sold was up 4%. 
    Coca-Cola HBC upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Drax upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
    LPKF upgraded to buy at HSBC
    HSBC upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    UBS upgrade Barclays Africa from sell to neutral with a target price of 19700c
    BHP downgraded to hold at Renaissance Capital
    CYBG downgraded to underperform at KBW
    Trelleborg downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Virgin Money downgraded to market perform at KBW
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. JamesIG
    Trump tariffs now in effect, however markets have generally priced this in. Fed hints at last nights FOMC that it could raise rates twice more this year. Greenback gains removing some of the earlier gains from GBPUSD. Carney warns that Trumps trade tariffs could damage the global economy knocking up to 2.5 percentage points of global growth over three years, but has warned Trump that these tariffs will hurt the US the most. Carney still upbeat about UK growth. New figures show that UK high street retailers could suffer the ‘worst year on record’. Copper extends losses on worries about global growth. The metal, seen as a bellwether of economic health, has hit a fresh 11 month low in London's LME. This week alone the metal has shed nearly 5% which has put it on it's steepest weekly drop since mid November 2017. Asian overnight: Asian markets were in surprisingly positive mood overnight, as a dovish Fed meeting helped ease any fears over the ramp up in tariffs between the US and China today. The imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods in either direction have done little to market sentiment, with much of the implications seemingly priced in. However, we have since seen Donald Trump mention the possibility of adding another $300 billion on top of the $200 billion in goods already mentioned in the past. Markets are however gaining despite this trade war result, suggesting that perhaps the news has already been priced in. The rebound in global markets should be treated with caution as we await further retaliation from China and the suggested escalation from the US regarding this matter. Overnight data saw Japanese household spending fall, while average cash holding improved significantly.
    UK, US and Europe: A busy day for the US follows a relatively quiet economic calendar in Europe, with one of the main figures already released in the form of the German industrial production number (2.6% from -1.3%). The focus for most will be the US and Canadian jobs report, with markets set to see whether the headline NFP number will follow the ADP figure lower. With market expectations of a September already elevated, todays jobs figures will add another important piece of that puzzle for traders.
    South Africa: South Africa's local equity market is expected to initially follow gains in the US and Asia, although could trade tentatively into the US employment data releases this afternoon. South Africa's gold and foreign exchange reserves for June 2018 were reported to have been recorded at slightly lower levels than in the previous month. The rand has managed to claw back some strength today which is expected to aid gains in local banking and retail counters. BHP Billiton is trading 0.85% higher in Australia this morning suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.26% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers, although the stronger rand may temper some of these gains. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): payrolls expected to fall to 190K from 223K, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings forecast to be 0.2% higher MoM, from 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    1.30pm – Canada employment data (June): 17,500 jobs expected to have been created, from a 7500 fall in May. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.8%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (June, seasonally-adjusted): forecast to fall to 60.7 from 62.5. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Glencore, the copper, nickel and iron ore mining specialist, announced it will initiate a $1bn share buy back scheme.
    Stobart said that it had started the year ‘satisfactorily’, and has also announced a new five-year lease partnership with Ryanair. 
    Rolls-Royce has sold its commercial marine business to Norwegian firm Kongsberg for £500 million. 
    Eurazeo upgraded to buy at HSBC
    ITV upgraded to buy at SocGen
    Petra Diamonds raised to buy at Panmure Gordon & Co
    Shell upgraded to buy at DZ Bank
    Daily Mail downgraded to sell at SocGen
    Direct Line cut to equal-weight at Barclays
    Esure downgraded to underweight at Barclays
    Pearson downgraded to hold at SocGen
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. JamesIG
    We are hosting our third live IG Forex Chat on Thursday 1 November at 6.30pm (UK time), where we will be exploring what the year ahead could hold for emerging market (EM) currencies. You can watch the discussion live in the IGTV player within the web trading platform, or using the YouTube link below. The whole purpose of these talks is to give you direct access to our panel and provide a platform for you to ask any question you wish about the subject in hand. Submit your questions below now!
    With emerging market currencies having been exceptionally volatile in 2018, we take a look at what the next 12 months could hold for related forex markets. Our discussion will cover a broad range of topics, including:
    The emerging market currencies to watch over the next 12 months How the dollar’s valuation will affect EM currencies The effects of changing commodity prices How the value of the US dollar, Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble will change
      Who are the experts?
    Paul Bratby is a self-employed trader who specialises in Elliott wave analysis. As well as trading via his personal account, he runs My Trading Buddy (MTB) and Wave5trade (W5T), which provide a wealth of trading tools and information about the forex markets.
    Raj Dhall is a market analyst, whose content has appeared on TradingView, FX Daily, the Society of Technical Analysts, London South East, Interactive Investor and Zero Hedge. His writing focuses on the influence of macroeconomic and political events on the markets.
  11. JamesIG
    The ECB announced the end of QE with plans to half asset purchases starting in September. ECB interest rates left unchanged, but hints at "the summer of 2019" for a change. Euro slides. Trump plans to impose $50bn in tariffs on China, met with a pledge of retaliation.  BoJ to keep stimulus unchanged. Brent continued declines as Saudi Arabia and Russia hint that production figures could rise. Unilevel is "extremely unlikely" to remain in the FTSE after it's planned move to Rotterdam. Netflix share price at record high, doubling in value over the last 6 months. UK, US and Europe: Asian markets were down across the board overnight, as the expected US imposition of $50 billion worth of sanctions on Chinese goods stoked fears of an impending trade war. With the possible breakdown of US trade relations with China, alongside a host of G7 allies as seen earlier in the week, it comes as no surprise that we are seeing risk-off sentiment take hold as we move towards the end of the week. The dollar has gained against a broad basket of currencies, while the Euro has weakened considerably following yesterdays dovish ECB press conference. Meanwhile, the BoJ has finished off a week of major central bank announcements, with the widely expected decision to keep their stimulus unchanged.

    Looking ahead, a final eurozone CPI reading has the potential to grab headlines in the morning, with the recent sharp rebound clearly having an influence on ECB thinking. The US session sees a focus on tier two releases such as the Empire state manufacturing survey, industrial production, and the Michigan consumer sentiment number.
    South Africa: The rand has renewed weakness which is expected to weigh on locally listed financial and retail counters, whilst perhaps aiding gains on rand hedge industrial counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton has added 0.5% in Australia suggestive of a slightly positive start for diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: History of the US Dollar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Tesco Q1 sales rose 1.8% on a like-for-like basis, and were up 2.3% overall. Like-for-like sales rose 14.3% at the newly-acquired Booker.   Rolls-Royce said that the job cuts announced yesterday would cost £500 million in redundancies and system investments. It said that it remained well-placed to exceed free cash flow of £1 billion by 2020, with a mid-term target of free cash flow per share to exceed £1.  Glencore has agreed to settle a dispute with its former partner in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who had been seeking $3 billion in damages for unpaid royalties.   Carrefour upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
    InterContinental raised to neutral at JPMorgan
    SGL upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Umicore upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Bossard downgraded to sell at Research Partners
    OHL downgraded to hold at Bankinter Securities
    Campari downgraded to neutral at Citi
    IAG downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. JamesIG
    Trade war continues with EU initiating retaliatory tariffs from tomorrow. 25% will be levied against products from whiskey to jeans and motorbikes. GBPUSD hits 7 month low on fears May will be ousted as PM over Brexit. FTSE index buoyed by a depreciated Sterling.  Disney ups the bid to eclipse Comcast’s $35 a share cash offer for Fox with a $71bn deal, about $38 a share. Trump crumbles to international pressure and signs an executive order stopping the separation of immigrant children from their families. Goldman Sachs looks to expand bitcoin involvement according to COO in a Bloomberg interview. Asian Overnight: Another mixed session in Asia saw Chinese stocks steady themselves after yesterday’s losses despite continued fears over a trade war with the US. Crude remains at the forefront of the market agenda, with weekly US crude inventories falling by the highest amount since January. Meanwhile, a weaker New Zealand GDP figure sent NZDUSD lower overnight.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the BoE rate decision is certainly the main event of the morning session, while the SNB monetary policy announcement will also grab some headlines. Look out for FTSE / Sterling correlation. The weaker the Queens pound, the higher the overseas earnings are for companies when they convert back into pounds. The BoE announcement is likely to cause some GBP volatility so make the appropriate risk management alterations to combat this. US Philly Fed manufacturing index, and unemployment claims round off the day in the US.
    South Africa: The US Dollar has strengthened to weigh on commodity prices, in particular that of precious metals. The rand has resumed weakness as a result and we expect financial counters to bear the brunt of initial weakness. BHP Billiton is trading 0.5% higher in Australia which combined with a softer rand could help local diversified resources find a bid this morning. Tencent Holdings is down 2.5% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change in rates expected, but watch for any changes in the voting pattern from the last vote which was 7/9 in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Market to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30pm – US Philadelphia Index (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 16 June): Philly Fed index expected to fall to 28 from 34.4, initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    9.30pm – Fed publishes bank stress test results: the US central bank will issue the results of these tests, so bank and other financial stocks will be in focus. Market to watch: US bank stocks
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: What is scalping?
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Dixons Carphone said that pre-tax profit for the full year was down 23.6%, to £382 million, while like-for-like revenue rose 4%. Slower growth in the UK and Ireland was blamed for the weaker performance.  Saga traded in line with forecasts in the four months to 31 May 2018. Saga-branded retail insurance policies were up 1% year-on-year.  Lloyd’s Banking Group announce hundreds of job cuts yesterday citing a change in customer behaviour. Tesla files lawsuit against Martin Tripp, the former employee who allegedly orchestrated a hack and data breach of Tesla operating software. Essity upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Nornickel GDRs upgraded to buy at Citi
    Peab upgraded to hold at DNB Markets
    Rio Tinto upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Euronext downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    Hypoport downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF
    Veolia downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Virgin Money cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. JamesIG
    Asian overnight: A wildly varied session overnight saw losses for the likes of the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 counterbalanced by strong gains in the Shenzhen composite (2%) and Hang Seng (1.3%). The euro gained sharply overnight, as an agreement at the EU summit over immigration was seem to appease hard line anti-immigration leaders, and crucially ease the pressure on Angela Merkel. On the data front, a raft of Japanese economic figures saw improved inflation, unemployment, industrial production, and housing starts.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic calendar looks to set up a busy day, with the release of the final UK GDP reading, alongside the flash eurozone CPI reading for June. With yesterday’s GDP reading from the US was revised lower from 2.2% to 2.0%, there is going to be of particular interest for this UK figure. Meanwhile, with the ECB heavily reliant upon the trajectory of inflation, traders should be watching out for the CPI figure as a driver of euro volatility. In the US session, watch out for the release of US personal income and spending, which will be hugely important given the influence of domestic consumption as a driver of US growth.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)


    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
     
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Serco said that it expects underlying trading profit for the first half to rise by 20%, but that revenue for the period would be around £1.35 billion, down from £1.51 billion a year earlier.  
    BAE Systems has won a $35 billion contract to provide nine new frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. Production is expected to begin in the early 2020s. 
    Allianz raised to overweight at JPMorgan
    BAE upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Swatch upgraded to buy at Citi
    Ageas downgraded to hold at SocGen
    Amer Sports downgraded to reduce at Inderes
    Bpost cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Hunting cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 24th June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
     
    Special Dividends         Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount AS51 BWP AU 27/06/2019 Special Div 1.56 ESTIMATE TOP40 TBS SJ 26/06/2019 Special Div 30600 How do dividend adjustments work?
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.  
  15. JamesIG
    We have recently released a charting update which gives you a brief overview of the indicators on the IG platform and how you can use them to get the most out of your technical analysis. We plan to roll this out imminently for the various drawing tools we have on the platform as well. 
    You can see how this looks in the image above. 
    How to access IG indicator descriptions on our charts
    Either right click on the chart and select 'Indicator' or use the 'Indicator' button at the top of each chart. Bring up the indicator you want more information on by hovering over it. A little 'i' symbol will appear when you hover over each one. Hovering over this information button will bring up the relevant info. You can scroll on these boxes. How IG acts on client feedback
    You can submit feedback in a number of ways, the most convenient of which is via the IG Community Feedback and Suggests board. Other methods include email, via live chat, and within the dealing platform itself in the top right hand corner drop down.  
    We host weekly and monthly meetings specifically designed to focus on getting individual client feedback to our developers, stakeholders, and senior management teams. All feedback channels are discussed, so every comment you leave with us is passed on to the appropriate team. 
    You can read more information on how this works using the link to the right. 
  16. JamesIG
    Alerts are great for keeping you up to date with broad market movements and macroeconomic news events. To make sure you receive the alert on mobile or via email requires an opt-in setting within MyIG, along with settings on your mobile (Push only). 
     
    Turning on notifications in MyIG
    When you’re logged in to your IG account go to your Communication Preferences in MyIG. On the 'Prices & Dealings' tab make sure you have turned on your Email and Push notification options. You can also look through other areas of the Communication Preferences section to make sure you're signed up to Newsletters and other notification areas.

     
    Turning on notifications on iOS (Apple iPhone / iPad etc)
    In your iOS settings, navigate to the Notifications section and make sure you have ‘allowed’ notifications. If you don’t turn on notifications, then you won’t be able to receive push Alerts.

     
    Turning on notifications on Android
    In the Android settings section of your mobile device click on ‘Notifications’ and scroll to the ‘IG Trading’ application. You can turn notifications on here along with other more granular notification options.

     
    ...and that's it!
    You should now be ready to receive Price, Indicator and Economic alerts which you have signed up for. 
  17. JamesIG
    Please be aware that due to year end market factors we are seeing significant moves in the funding rates for most FX pairs. This has been observed across the market, although some pairs are looking to be worse affected than others (most notably if you are short US dollars). These factors include financial institutions balancing their books before the end of the year, putting a strain on certain currencies.
    You can see overnight funding charges on FX pairs by using the link to the right. This is currently only available in desktop/web trading platform for leverage accounts.
    What does this mean for you
    Funding rates for FX pairs can be extremely volatile, resulting in your daily funding adjustments being much higher than normal. To the best of our knowledge this will affect JPY crosses held past 10pm on the 26th December, CAD crosses and USDTRY positions held past 10pm on the 28th December, and most other pairs including gold and silver held past 10pm on the 27th December. 
    As an example, for a normal 2-day roll charge on EURUSD you would receive 1.7pts for a short position and pay 1.79pts for a long position (+/- IG’s admin charge). Current rates are indicating receiving/paying 6 times these amounts should you hold your positions through year end snapshot dates, but these rates can change. 
    All things being equal, the FX tradeable price should adjust to reflect these rates but this is out of our control. 
    Where can I see expected overnight funding rates on FX positions?
    The funding rates shown on the platform are indicative and subject to change. 'Swap Bid' / 'Swap Offer' rates as shown below can be toggled on/off and show the expected rate for that day. I.e, to view what the expected rates you'll pay or receive on a currency pair at 10pm (GMT) would require you to check the specific currency row at any point on that same day (prior to 10pm). You can read more about that here.

  18. JamesIG
    A sharp decline in oil prices has caused a lower Asian equity market session as energy sector is hit. Netflix share tumble 14% late last night in after hours trading on poor quarterly results, helping to pull down the S&P futures. The IMF has warned that tariffs imposed by the White House could initiate a $440bn knock to global growth and coined it the “greatest near term threat to global growth". Yesterday BoA beat earning expectations, Deutsche Bank share jumped in surprise profits forecast, and BlackRock profits up as well. Could this be a barometer for other banks earnings and a possible trade idea over earning season? Global regulators have started to lay the foundations to start monitoring crypto assets. BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world with $6.3 trillion in AUM, also announced a plan to build a crypto unit. Crypto markets rose sharply on the news. Asian overnight: Asian markets largely traded in the red in the wake of a sharp deterioration in energy prices, with Japanese indices the only positive movers as they play catch up in the wake of yesterday’s bank holiday. Data wise, we saw the release of a weaker than expected inflation print from New Zealand, falling to 0.4% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, RBA minutes pointed towards a continued expectation that the next move will be a rate rise, although this remains some way off yet.
    UK, US and Europe: US corporate earnings have taken the mantle in terms of being at the forefront of driving short term market sentiment. Yesterday a softer results release from Netflix saw the tech sector weaker and in turn the Nasdaq leading declines amongst the major US indices. Oil prices have come under enormous pressure overnight as suggestions that the US may waiver some sanctions on Iran oil. Looking ahead, a whole host of employment related data points from the UK brings the pound into focus. The dominant figure to look out of comes in the form of the average earnings number, with BoE’s Cunliffe specifically singling out the possible undershooting of wages as a reason to hold off on an August rate hike. Also keep an eye out for the US industrial production figure and an appearance from Fed governor Powell who is due to testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee.
    South Africa:  The dollar has lost a bit of strength and in turn the rand has gained marginally this morning. BHP Billiton is down 1.69% in Australia suggestive of a softer start for diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 1.3% lower in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Earning season look ahead: Earning season continues with Royal Mail and TalkTalk putting out quarterlies today, along with Johnson and Johnson, Progressive, and Fidelity. Don't forget Morgan Stanley, American Express, Hochschild Mining, RPC Group and Severn Trent look to publish on Wednesday, and there may be some trade potential there give the results from banks yesterday.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
    9.30am – UK employment data: May unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, June claimant count to be 11K from -7.7K, and May average earnings to rise 2.7% from 2.5% (including bonus). Markets to watch: GBP crosses.
     
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Rio Tinto produced 88.5 million tonnes of iron ore in the second quarter, representing a 14% rise compared with the same quarter in 2017. Improved weather and productivity throughout its Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia were most notable amongst reasons for this shift. 2018 shipments are expected to be towards to top end of its 330-340 million tonnes guidance. Royal Mail traded in line with expectations, with a decline in addressed letter business (down 7%) and marketing mail over the three months to June 24 vs the same time last year. CashBuild Revenue for the fourth quarter for the Cashbuild Group was up 4% on the fourth quarter of the prior financial year, with the 42 new stores opened or acquired since 1 July 2016 contributing 5% of the increase, whilst the 276 existing stores decreased by 1%. The growth for the fourth quarter together with the growth of the previous quarters, equates to an increase in revenue for the Cashbuild Group of 5% for the financial year, with new stores contributing 5% of the increase and existing stores remaining at similar levels. Asos Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    Morgan Advanced Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Deutsche Bank Upgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
    Michelin Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Investec maintain buy rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 440000c 
    Investec maintain buy rating on Tencent with a target price of HK$530
    Adidas Downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
    Brunello Cucinelli Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Dick Bove, veteran banks analyst and chief strategist at Hilton Capital Management, tells IGTV that Citigroup is most at risk from the US-Sino trade tensions. Bank of America (BoA) is his top pick in the sector, praising CEO Bryan Moynihan as ‘an expert CEO’. Bove says he can see the stock rising to $60. Meanwhile, he says JPMorgan’s numbers were ‘superb’ while Wells Fargo was ‘very disappointing.’ However if we enter into a recession, he says ‘all bets are off’.
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  19. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 29 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
     
    Special dividends this week
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. 
    Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount AS51 IAG AU 31/10/2018 Special Div 7.8571 IBEX ITX SM 31/10/2018 Special Div 21 SX5E ITX SM 31/10/2018 Special Div 21 RTY COLB US 06/11/2018 Special Div 14 RTY HFWA US 06/11/2018 Special Div 10 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  20. JamesIG
    IG is hosting the first #IGForexChat on Thursday 4th October at 6.30pm
    You can watch the live broadcast using the video player below (with the broadcast starting just before the above time), or from within the dealing platform. We want to hear your questions so we can put them to the panel, opening up a two way channel between you and a group of experts which you may not usually have access to. The first two guests will be Raj Dhall at tradingview.com and Samuel Morton at lovethepips and forexcfdsignals.com. You can read more about the #IGForexChat here, or simply submit your questions below!
     
  21. JamesIG
    Asian stocks are broadly higher ahead of the Fed rate decision later today, whilst the NZ dollar is buoyed by higher business confidence.  Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani came to a head at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday with the US President vowing more sanctions against Tehran, whilst President Rouhani suggested that Trump suffers from a "weakness of intellect." Trump is really trying to bring the price of oil into play before the midterms as high oil prices could hit the Republican vote. Oil pulls back after Trump's comments on OPEC whilst bonds and currencies are broadly steady. When it comes to trade wars it may be worth keeping an eye on the USDCNY pair. BCA research and the head of economic research at UBS both speculate that the Chinese renminbi could weaken to 7Rmb against the dollar before the end of the year. According to an internal document reported by reuters, EU negotiators are ready to offer Theresa May a free-trade area in Brexit, however they are adamant that there must be a customs border that will trade less than frictionless. The Argentinian peso, an EM currency which has seen news inches this quarter, slide as much as 5% as the central bank chief quits just three months into the job. Globally IPO’s have slide by nearly 1/5th this year amid geopolitical tensions, whilst money brought into via the process has increased by 10% according to accountancy firm EY. Asian overnight: Asian markets enjoyed a largely positive session, as trade concerns faded despite Trump’s UN speech which heralded an America first approach rather than rampant globalisation. The New Zealand dollar came into favour overnight, gaining ground in the wake of a strong business confidence figure. This despite a deterioration in their trade balance figure, with imports rising and exports shrinking.
    UK, US and Europe: Today sees all eyes turn to the Fed, with the FOMC due to announce their latest monetary policy decision. The simultaneous release of the latest FOMC economic projections should ensure volatility for the dollar and US stocks markets. Apart from the Fed, the European session sees little of note, with new home sales and crude inventories the other numbers to watch out of the US.
    Record breaking divergence between the US equity market and the rest of the world could see a significant movement of money out of Wall Street and into other markets in Europe and Asia. The S&P has gained 9% this year alone and has created the biggest difference between its continued all time highs and the rest of the world putting it at its most extreme levels since 1970. US consumer confidence is at a 17 year high whilst manufacturing activity reached a 14 year high. According to BoA ML analysts, investors have built up a significant level of US equity exposure over the last three years. A mass exodus could see significant movements. This could potentially provides an interesting trade opportunity if the flow into Asia and European markets tips as investors, traders and speculators search for greater returns - the players to keep an eye on however are the institutional investors and money managers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    3pm – US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    7pm – FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSP said that it expected like-for-like sales in its financial year to grow by 2-3%. Growth in Q4 was similar to Q3, driven by increased passenger numbers.   PZ Cussons expects overall results for the quarter to the end of August were in line with forecasts, as growth in Europe and Asia offset a poorer performance in Nigeria.  AA said that higher callouts due to bad weather and potholes hit pre-tax profit for the first half, which fell to £23 million from £64 million a year earlier.   Boohoo reported a 50% rise in first half revenue, to £395 million, with international revenues now 40% of the total. Sales growth for the full year is now expected to be 38-43%, from a previous guidance of 35-40%.  Bouygues upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Next upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Randgold upgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Scandic raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Deutsche Boerse downgraded to sell at Bankhaus Lampe
    Grammer downgraded to sell at Quirin Privatbank AG
    Kier downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Telenet downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  22. JamesIG
    The Asia equity market ex-Japan are looking at their lowest levels since July last year. Tech sector as a whole was hit by a drop in chip stocks yesterday as well as a knock to social media. Investors are cautious that new U.S. tariffs on China could come into play at any time. Yen and Swiss franc are looking to be bid up for those looking at safe harbours. Non-farm payrolls are out later today. Asian overnight: Yet again trade concerns weighed on Asian markets, with the Hang Seng posting its worst week since February. Tech stocks remain under pressure in both the US and China, with the momentum trade in the Nasdaq seeing a stark turnaround. A rise in US gasoline reserves hit oil prices and helped drive energy stocks lower.
    UK, US and Europe: Yesterday’s ADP numbers were weaker than forecast, so there will be some nervousness among dollar bulls ahead of NFPs this afternoon, while before this we have eurozone GDP figures. Trade war concerns remain front and centre, as the US and China ramp up the tensions.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone GDP (Q2): expected to be 0.4% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, from 0.4% and 2.5% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (August): NFPs expected to come in at 187K from 157K, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings to be 0.3% MoM, in line with last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    1.30pm – Canada employment data (August): 15,900 jobs forecast to have been created, from 54,100 a month earlier. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Playtech said that it has sold its 10% stake in Plus500 for £176 million. The proceeds will be used or general corporate purposes and to reduce net debt.  AstraZeneca said that the FDA had granted a breakthrough therapy label for its asthma treatment.  Aixtron upgraded to hold at Baader Helvea
    BioMerieux upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Equinor upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Idorsia upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Burberry cut to neutral at Goldman
    MorphoSys downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Safran downgraded to hold at SocGen
    Shire downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.  
  23. JamesIG
    Asian overnight: Market volatility remains evident throughout Asia, with yesterday’s sharp tumble being followed up by a strong rebound overnight. Chief amongst those gainers were the Chinese markets, which gained ground despite the ongoing trade war with the US. Suggestions that China and the US could resume trade talks has helped boost short term market sentiment. Crude prices were also fighting back in the wake of the biggest one-day decline in more than two years yesterday.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a relatively quiet European session sees industrial production data from the eurozone take precedence in the lead up to the latest ECB monetary policy minutes. Meanwhile, the US will be keeping a close eye out for the CPI inflation data and unemployment claims number.
    South Africa: We are expecting a higher open on the local SA bourse today as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning. Emerging market currencies and metal prices are in turn finding some reprieve today. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.6% lower in Australia suggestive of a slightly softer start for locally listed diversified miners. Mining production and sales data is scheduled for release at 11:30am and Manufacturing production and sales data is scheduled for release at 1pm today. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    10am – eurozone industrial production (May): expected to be 2.8% YoY and 0.8% MoM, from 1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30pm – US CPI (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 7 July) headline CPI to be 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI to be 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, from 0.2% and 2.2% respectively. Initial jobless claims to fall to 227,000 for the week, from 231,000 a week earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Dunelm said that store like-for-like sales were up 1% to £805 million for the year to 30 July, while online sales rose 37.9% like-for-like to £105.4 million. Pre-tax profit is expected to be £102 million for the full year.  ASOS expects full-year profit to be in line with forecasts, as total sales rose 22% to £802.7 million for the four months to 30 June. Full-year pre-tax profit is expected to be around £101 million.  B&M European Value Retail said that it enjoyed a strong start to the year, with revenue growth of 21.3% overall in the quarter, up 1.6% on a like-for-like basis.  Aker BP upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Hapag-Lloyd raised to neutral at Goldman
    Maersk upgraded to buy at Goldman
    Roche upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    ITV downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Pagegroup downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Sky cut to neutral at Macquarie
    Veidekke downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  24. JamesIG
    Asian markets broadly subdued to to global tech sell off. BoJ pledged to keep it's interest rates 'very low' and added flexibility measure to its stimulus package. This decision leads the way with the big IR decisions taken by the leading central banks this week. U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England is seen raising interest rates on Thursday. Dollar ends up paring losses against the yen after the BoJ meeting. Oversupply concerns cause oil to drop by it's largest daily amount in 2 years. Gold is slightly firmer but nothing to write home about at $1,222/oz. If you're looking for a big macro day, today is the one. Calendar below only shows high importance events.  Asian overnight: A largely negative session overnight saw marginal gains in the Nikkei and ASX 200 provide the only respite from a wider trend of downside for stocks. Following on from yet another bearish session in the US, we are seeing continued uncertainty despite the overnight BoJ decision to largely retain their monetary policy in similar shape. Monetary policy has been kept extremely accommodative. The bank’s shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix index did little to help the index over the course of the session, yet for the most part market fears proved unfounded. A busy economic calendar saw a largely bearish picture for the Japanese economy, with a rise in unemployment coming alongside fall in industrial production and consumer confidence. Chinese PMI figures did little to enable a more bullish outlook, with a deterioration in both services and manufacturing readings.
     
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic and corporate calendar really picks up, with the Germany starting in earnest with a better-than-expected retail sales figure of 1.2% (from -2.1%). The morning will largely focus in on the eurozone CPI and GDP figures, with core inflation expected to tick higher to 1%. On the GDP front, the only expected change comes in the year-on-year figure, with markets looking for a tick lower to 2.4% (from 2.5%).
    The afternoon sees another important GDP figure, with the Canadian growth reading predicted to rise sharply to 0.3% from 0.1%. Elsewhere, the US economy comes into focus, with the core PCE measure of inflation released alongside personal spending. Also keep an eye out for the consumer confidence figure. On the corporate calendar, earnings from Apple will no doubt grab the headlines as traders look out for any negative fallout from the recent trade war.
     
    South Africa:  Commodity prices are relatively flat this morning with gold remaining at depressed levels, base metals mixed and oil marginally lower although still  around multi-week highs. The rand is pretty much unchanged against the majors this morning. BHP Billiton is however up 2.25% in Australia suggestive of a firmer start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 2.6% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. In turn we expect the Jse Top 40 Index to open flat to marginally lower this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8.55am – German unemployment (July): unemployment expected to fall by 17,000 from a 15,000 drop in June. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    10am – eurozone CPI (July, flash), employment (June), GDP (Q2, flash): CPI to be 2% YoY, unchanged from last month, and core CPI to rise to 1.1% YoY from 0.9%. Unemployment rate to rise to 8.5% from 8.4%, and GDP to be 2.5% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June): income and spending to both be 0.4%, from 0.4% and 0.2% respectively last month. PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to be 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    2.45pm – Chicago PMI (July): forecast to fall to 63 from 64.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (July): expected to rise to 126.5 from 126.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Just Eat saw a 30% increase in orders compared with H1 2017, after the firm successfully integrated Hungry House into the business. While the firm saw revenues rise 45%, the short-term costs associated with Hungry House meant pre-tax profit fell 3% to £48.1 million. Thomas Cook played down expectations for full-year profitability, as a growing demand for low-margin budget Spanish holidays reduced demand for more profitable packages. The firm saw revenue rise 10%, yet profits fall 3% for the three months to June 30, as many delayed plans to book a holiday given the warm weather at home. BP saw better-than-expected earnings figures, as higher oil prices and increasing production boosted profitability. The Gulf of Mexico disaster payoff continues to drag profitability, with $700 million paid out over the quarter. BP raised their dividend by 2.5%, while also buying $200 million worth of ordinary shares back, totalling 29 million. Anglo American Plc In the sixth sales cycle of the year, demand for De Beers rough diamonds was in line with expectations during the seasonally quieter summer period for the industry’s midstream sector. Abcam upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Aegon upgraded to neutral at Mediobanca SpA
    DNO upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    Tamburi Investment Partners raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Heineken downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Wacker Chemie cut to hold at DZ Bank
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    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  25. JamesIG
    Trade war worries offset the gains seen in Wall Street with the Asian equity market struggling overnight. The trillion dollar valuation race between Apple and Amazon continues with Amazon tipping the $900bn valuation yesterday. GBP continues to take a beating against major world currencies as CPI data yesterday remained unchanged, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in August. US banking shares continue to do good in earning season as Morgan Stanley profit jump. Oil prices remain volatile but fall amid record U.S. output and stockpiling continues to build. Have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll. Asian overnight: Asian markets traded largely lower, as a breakdown in talks between the US and China highlighted the potential longevity of this recent trade war. However, despite the lack of any developments in trade negotiations, markets have largely taken the news in their stride, with losses proving relatively minimal. The Australian ASX 200 index was the one gainer overnight, despite a simultaneous rise in the AUD thanks to a batch of jobs data. A sharp rise in the employment change figure saw it rise to the highest level of 2018 thus far.
    UK, US and Europe: Global equity markets are trading mostly lower this morning although losses are marginal. While there appears to be no immediate and new economic catalysts to drive market movements this morning, US earnings remain a primary driver of equity markets right now. The dollar is slightly firmer and commodity prices modestly weaker this morning.
    Looking ahead, yet another important UK economic reading comes out in the form of the retail sales figure. With underwhelming jobs and inflation data, the expectations of an August rate rise are gradually easing, driving the pound lower. With the retail sales number expected to tumble from 1.3% to 0.1%, we could see yet another warning sign for the BoE today. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, alongside the latest unemployment claims figure.
    South Africa: BHP Billiton is trading flat in Australia suggestive of a similar start for the South African listing of the company. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.6% lower in Asia, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. A weak trading statement is expectant of a soft open for Woolworths, following on from a negative reaction yesterday to Shoprites trading update. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK retail sales (June): forecast to rise 2.4% YoY from 3.9% and 0.4% from 1.3% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 July), Philadelphia Fed mfg index (July): claims to rise to 217K from 214K, while the Philadelphia Fed index rises to 21.5 from 19.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    AO World said that Q1 revenue rose 8%, reflecting a strong start to the year in April and May, although demand was weaker in June. It remains on track to hit full-year expectations.   Unilever sales rose 1.9% in Q2, below the forecast 2.2%. A Brazilian transport strike and weak performance hit pricing.  Babcock expects low single digit underlying growth for the full year, versus a previous forecast of low mid-single digit growth. This was due to a slowdown in defence and marine work.  Sports Direct said that full-year core earnings rose 12.2% to £306.1 million, ahead of forecasts of £296 million. Core earnings are expected to rise 5-15% in the next financial year.   Buffet has won more power for share buy backs for Berkshire Hathaway if he feels the stock is undervalued. BRK gains 5.27% on the news. Lloyd’s loses market share in the uk mortgage space last year to RBS and HSBC. Although companies usually want to remain dominant in all forms of market share, reducing exposure, and therefore risk, to this particular market going into rising interest rates and Brexit may not be the worst thing. Adler Modemaerkte Upgraded to Buy at Oddo
    Salzgitter Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    Ericsson Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
    HelloFresh Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe
    Alstria Office Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    BioMerieux Downgraded to Hold at HSBC
    Hypoport Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    Continental Downgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe
    Featured Video from IGTV
      Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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