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JamesIG

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Blog Entries posted by JamesIG

  1. JamesIG
    Stocks have fallen whilst the dollar remains effected on trade tensions and tariff wars. The AUD has given up gains on GDP data. Despite being the most shorted stock on Wall Street (even ahead of Tesla), Amazon pipped the $1 trillion valuation briefly yesterday as it surpassed the $2,050.27 a share requirement. Its expected that there will be no change in the FTSE 100 for the first time in 12 years today with no individual constituents being upgraded or downgraded. The British construction sector slowed in August as both civil engineering firms and house builders held back from projects. With a reading of 52.9 the IHS Markit PMI figure still shows the sector is growing, but it was much lower than the 55 expected by economists. On Tuesday Mercedes showed how aggressively it was gunning for the top spot in upscale battery car market currently dominated by Tesla as it showcased it's first fully electric car, the EQC. Oil has pulled back over 3% from the highs of yesterday after reports that the impact of a tropical storm in the US Gulf coast won't have as much of an impact as initially expected. Asian overnight: An overwhelmingly bearish session overnight has seen substantial losses throughout Hong Kong (-2%), Chinese (-1%), and Australian (-1%) markets. Much of this pessimism can be attributed to the ongoing fears over US trade relations with Canada and China. With talks between the US and Canada set to resume today, there is little optimism that we will see them reach a deal. On economic front, a surprise boost for the Australian dollar came amid a significant beat on the Q2 GDP figure. An upward revision to the Q1 figure also helped boost sentiment, reflecting an economic outperformance despite ongoing trade fears.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK services PMI is going to provide the one dominant economic reading from the European session. Coming off the back of two poor readings from the construction and manufacturing PMI surveys, today’s release represents the big one for the pound. The afternoon brings both the Canadian and US trade balance figures into view, at a time where the two sides continue to attempt to put together some form of renewed NAFTA deal. Canada remains in view a little later, with the release of the BoC rate decision expected to bring no change from the committee.
    South Africa: The Jse AllShare index looks set to trade weaker this morning as poor economic growth reported adds further negative sentiment to what is risk off global market environment today. Emerging market fears continue to stem from Turkey, Argentina, China and to a lessor extent South Africa at present. The dollar has strengthened further to put pressure on commodity prices, particularly that of precious metals. Tencent Holdings is trading 3.6% lower in Asia, which should see major holding company Naspers following suite. BHP Billiton is down 2.66% in Australia, perhaps a precursor for what to expect from locally listed diversified resource counters this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30 – UK services PMI (August): forecast to rise to 54.7 from 53.5. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US trade balance (July): deficit to widen to $46.7 billion from $46.3 billion. Market to watch: USD crosses
    1.30pm – Canada trade balance (July): deficit to widen to C$2.3 billion from C$0.63 billion. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    3pm – BoC rate decision: no change expected. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Barratt Developments reported a 9.2% rise in pre-tax profits for the year, to a record £835.5 million, while gross margins and the number of new homes completed both rose. It remains confident in the outlook for the housing market.  William Hill has formed a partnership with Nevada firm Eldorado Resorts, with the latter becoming William Hill’s exclusive partner in the provision of digital and land-based sports betting. The partnership will cover 13 states where sports betting is legal or betting bills have been tabled.  Berkeley Group said that prices and demand remained robust in London and the south-east between May and August, but that the market in London remained constricted by high transaction costs and economic uncertainty.  Vodafone Upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein
    Antofagasta Raised to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    BP Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Zumtobel Upgraded to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Intrum Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Tele2 Downgraded to Underperform at RBC
    Vonovia Downgraded to Hold at Nord/LB
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  2. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 03 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special dividends 
    Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Dividend Amount UKX ADM LN 06/09/2018 19.2 AS51 WHC AU 04/09/2018 13.0 AS51 TME AU 06/09/2018 22.0 AS51 ABC AU 07/09/2018 4.0 RTY PBIP US 06/09/2018 35.0  
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
      This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 27 Aug 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. JamesIG
    Australian equity markets gain after leadership vote ends political uncertainty with the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison. Hang Seng equity market slips after US-China trade talks end without progress. Saudi Arabia has denied that its $2 trillion Aramco IPO has been cancelled, and that they’re instead waiting for “appropriate circumstances and appropriate time” for the listing. Trade concerns continue to hit gold prices however they do make gains, slowly inching up, whilst oil rises on US sanctions on Iran cloud supply outlook. Asian overnight: A largely positive session overnight has seen gains across Japanese, Australian, and Chinese markets, with the Hang Seng the one outlier after it traded moderately in the red. This comes despite heightened fears for US-China trade, with the two-day talks between the two countries ending in deadlock. With the US set to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports, the big question is how China will respond. Meanwhile, we saw the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison, with the Australian dollar gaining ground at the resolution of recent political uncertainty.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet economic calendar means that markets will continue to focus on US led political and economic concerns. Most notably US-Chinese trade relations. The big event comes from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell is set to make his first appearances since being criticised by Donald Trump. All signs are pointing towards Trump’s attempts to influence actions at the Fed going the same way as his comments on the Attorney General, with Jeff Sessions saying that the Justice department will not be influenced by Trump’s actions. Thus look out for a continued hawkish tone from Powell, with the Fed looking set to maintain its rate rise pathway.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (July): forecast to grow 0.8% MoM from 1%, while excluding transportation orders expected to rise 0.3% from 0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    CEO of ARK investments published an open letter to Tesla’s Elon Musk pleading him to keep the electric car manufacturer publicly valued. She argued the stock could rise to $4000 in 5 years if the company switched focus to mobility as a service rather than manufacturing. Petrofac has sold its interest in a North Sea oil facility to Ithaca Energy for $292 million.   Computacenter said that, for the first half, statutory pre-tax profit was up 9.5% to £52 million, while revenue was 18% higher at £2.01 billion.  Antofagasta upgraded to outperform at RBC
    N Brown upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Ted Baker upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Hamborner REIT downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Implenia downgraded to market perform at ZKB
    John Laing Group downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  5. JamesIG
    Despite Tuesday being referred to as the worst day in the Presidency of Donald Trump, the S&P touched an intraday record high and equaled its longest bull run of 3452 days, with the record expected to tumble today, baring a disaster. Dollar steady overnight following yesterday’s dip, with forex markets pretty calm across the board, although we did see a weakening in AUD, which was down 0.2%. Brent rose 0.3%, whilst US crude was up 0.5% following industry group data that signaled a larger than expected decline in US stockpiles. Gold flat 1195.56 an ounce, whilst nickel and aluminum pushed base metals up. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded its largest July surplus for 18 years pointing to a robust deficit reduction on the back of low unemployment and good economic growth. Morgan Stanley have removed their ratings and equity coverage of Tesla yesterday hinting that they’ve possibly joined Goldman Sachs as an advisor on the deal to take the company private. The UK’s HMRC have released figures showing the YoY change for July's residential property transactions are down 3.2% adding fuel to fear of a stagnant UK property market. Asian overnight: Japanese markets were the big outperformer overnight, as a bearish session across Chinese and Australian markets pointed towards growing fears over the outcome of today’s trade talks between the US and Chinese. The dollar remains under pressure following comments from Donald Trump who was highly critical of Jerome Powell’s handling of monetary policy. Yesterday’s record highs for the S&P 500 didn’t do enough to boost sentiment in Asia, and this apprehensive theme looks likely to continue in Europe ahead of a bearish open. 
    UK, US and Europe: We finally see a ramp up in economic releases, if only from the US session given the absence of any European figures. Keep an eye out for the Canadian retail sales and US existing home sales coming into play in the afternoon. Also look out for the latest crude inventories figure, with energy prices in focus amid the recent Iran and Venezuela focused volatility. Finally, the latest FOMC minutes are released at the end of the day, bringing dollar volatility back into play. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the last policy meeting will see investors looking for further clues relating to the pace of monetary tightening in the US.
    South Africa: This morning will see local inflation data released at 10am to help guide the South African Reserve Banks monetary policy program. This afternoon will see US crude inventory data out which could be  a possible catalyst for oil prices. Tencent Holdings is up 2% in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is down another 1.2% in Australia suggestive of a negative start for the local listing this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    3pm – US existing home sales (July): forecast to rise 0.4% MoM from a 0.6% drop a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 17 August): expected to see stockpiles fall by 520,000 barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    7pm – FOMC minutes: no change at the latest meeting means these minutes may not provide too much in the way of new information, but given the rally in the dollar over the past month the minutes will need to strike a hawkish tone to avoid provoking a possible selloff in the greenback. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Grafton Group said that pre-tax profit was 18% higher for the first half, to £57.6 million, while revenue was 9% higher at £1.45 billion.  Diploma said that it acquired FS Cables for £18 million.  Blue Label Telecoms Ltd FY18 results showed core headline earnings per share to have increased by 4% from the previous year. Bid Corporation FY18 results  showed headline earnings from continuing operations to have increased by 9.1% from the previous year. Danske Bank raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Lancashire upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Provident upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Rio Tinto upgraded to hold at Liberum
    DNB downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Implenia downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    MorphoSys downgraded to hold at Commerzbank
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  6. JamesIG
    Asian stocks generally up on hopes trade tensions may ease. Hopes of a China - US trade resolution pushed up copper, often seen as a barometer for the economic outlook, dragging behind it miners such as BHP Billiton and Glencore. Venezuela have debased their currency taking off five zeros, along with increase minimum wage by 3000% in and effort to prop up their economy. Yesterday the world trade organisation confirmed that Turkey had lodged a trade dispute against the US. Gold gains as Trumps remarks weigh on the US dollar, whilst oil edges up on tighter US outlook and Iran sanctions. See what's going on with London house prices in the IGTV video featured video below. Asian overnight: Another mixed Asian session overnight, with the Japanese Topix and Australian ASX 200 providing the two negative movers in an otherwise positive session. Donald Trump has downplayed expectations for tomorrow's trade talks between the US and China, yet Chinese stocks managed to gain significant ground nonetheless. Trump also hit out at the Fed over their consistent rate hikes since he came to power, sending the dollar lower. US index futures and most Asian equity markets are trading flat to modestly higher this morning, although China's Shanghai Composite has managed to post significant gains this morning (+1.37%). The scheduled news calendar for today is relatively light and Turkish markets are closed, to removing some of the short term catalysts for volatility.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have precious few major events of note to look out for. Thus markets will likely to continue to feed off any comments from Donald Trump as we head towards tomorrow's summit.
    South Africa:  The US dollar has weakened and with it aided some gains in commodity prices and strength in emerging market currencies such as the rand. BHP Billiton is down 1.87% in Australia after releasing FY18 results, suggestive of a similar move for the local Billiton listing. Tencent Holdings is down 0.3% in Asia, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. With this in mind we expect a flat to marginally lower start on the Jse Top40 Index today. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Persimmon said first-half pre-tax profit rose 13% to £516.3 million, while average selling prices rose 1% to £215,813 over the year. Current forward sales were 6% higher compared to a year earlier, at £2.1 billion.   BHP Billiton said that full-year net profit fell 37% to $3.7 billion, thanks to impairments of $5.2 billion. Underlying profit was 33% higher at $8.93 billion, while revenue was up 21% to $43.64 billion, helped by higher production and increased prices for copper, coal and oil. The dividend was boosted by 20 cents to 63 cents per share.  Wood Group suffered a net loss of $52 million for the first-half, due to a write-down on its EthosEnergy gas turbine services business. Operating profit before exceptionals however rose 74% to $125 million, while revenue was up 13 overall. The dividend was boosted to 11.3 cents per share, from 11.1 cents. It remains on track to hit full-year expectations.  Polymetal reported a 45% jump in first-half profit, to $175 million, while revenue was up 16% to $789 million. The firm enjoyed higher gold production and selling prices in gold, offsetting lower silver output. The dividend was raised to 17 cents per share, from 14 cents a year earlier. . Imperial Holdings  FY18 results showed that excluding businesses held for sale, total revenue and operating profit for the group increased by 13% and 7% respectively. BHP Billiton FY18 results  showed basic earnings per share to have remained flat from the prior financial year.  Harmony Gold FY18 results headline earnings per share to have declined by 38% (in USc) from the prior year. Aggreko upgraded to buy at HSBC
    H&R upgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    Bayer upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Deutsche Wohnen upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Atlantia downgraded to hold at Santander
    Bodycote downgraded to sell at Panmure Gordon
    Medistim downgraded to sell at SpareBank
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  7. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 20 Aug 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
      This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. JamesIG
    Asia shares inch up with yuan ahead f Sino - US talks.  UK minsters release their first ‘no deal’ Brexit documents on Thursday in an effort to prepare for a “worst possible” outcome. Persimmon results are expected tomorrow, with many in the sector looking to the release as a barometer for the wider housing sector and how a rising inflation rate will affect the market. Iran has stressed to OPEC over the weekend that no other member country should take up the slack for reduced oil exports in the face of Trump imposed US sanctions. Oil prices slip on concerns over slowing economic growth Asian overnight: A mixed start to the week for Asian markets has seen the Chinese and Hong Kong markets outperform, while Japanese indices were the big underperformer of the session, remaining in the red into the close. Markets are continuing their short term rebound with US Index Futures and the wider Asian markets trading firmer this morning. Optimism that meetings scheduled in late August and November, between China and US officials, will yield some resolve to the current trade war debacle is providing some of the risk on sentiment. A quiet calendar meant that much of the focus will be on the US-China trade talks, which kick off on Wednesday.
    UK, US and Europe: A quiet day on the data front sees a market focus on this morning's Bundesbank monthly report, alongside appearances from the Fed’s Bostic and Bundesbank’s Weidmann. As the corporate earnings draw to a close, there will also be less of a focus on earnings reports as a key driver of price action. Thus look out for any updates on talks between the US and China, alongside any updates on the Turkish story.
    South Africa:  The US dollar has softened somewhat to help lift precious metal prices off their worst levels of the year. The rand has in turn managed to claw back some short term strength against the greenback and the majors. Tencent Holdings has rebounded 3.1% in Asia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.3% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified mining counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    NMC Health saw a 19% rise in first-half profit, with the firm increasing revenues from Middle East hospitals. Net profit for the first six months of the year rose to $116.7m, while revenue increased to $932.0m (+20%). Patients rose by 20% in the healthcare division, with bed occupancy rates rising to 69.9%. AngloGold Ashanti Interim results showed adjusted headline earnings of $85m, or 21c (US) per share versus a loss of $93m, or 23 US Dollar cents per share in the first half of 2017. Increases in adjusted headline earnings were due mainly to the improved operating performance and the higher gold price. " Sasol FY18 results  showed headline earnings per share to have declined by 23%. CVS Group upgraded to outperform at RBC
    KAZ Minerals upgraded to hold at Liberum
    RBS upgraded to buy at Citi
    United Internet upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Boozt downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 13 Aug 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 


    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. JamesIG
    Asian shares gain on US - China trade talks, whilst USD dips. Rating agency Fitch warned that the chance of a Brexit no deal is a ‘growing possibility’, and uncertainty is so great that it’s impossible to accurately predict a likely outcome. Reports that Amazon is looking to launch its own comparison site sent ripples through the UK listed rivals moneysupermarket, gocompare, and confused.com owner Admiral. Aftershocks of World Cup fever and the good weather are seen in rising UK retail sales (up 0.7% in July), a boost to home and garden DIY sales for B&Q, and better profit projections for Carlsberg. Oil prices slip amid fears over global economic growth. US Baker Hughes to keep an eye on later today.  Asian overnight: Asian markets gained ground thanks to subsiding trade war concerns, while worries about the Turkish situation also eased for the time being. It looks like the US and China are preparing to talk, and this should help equities to trade in a more optimistic fashion. US markets staged an impressive rebound yesterday, but once again Europe was left trailing behind, repeating the dominant theme of the year so far. The rebound has been catalyzed by optimism over the revisiting of trade talks between China and the US at the end of the month. The trade war rhetoric does still remain a relevant theme in the market place and is still expected to cause further market volatility going forward, as is the economic crisis in Turkey and its possible contagion effects.
    UK, US and Europe: Eurozone CPI dominates the first part of the day, while Canadian CPI and then Michigan confidence data are expected later today. With little corporate data on the calendar, investors will watch Tesla stock this afternoon after the New York Times published an interview with CEO Elon Musk.
    South Africa: We are expecting a continued but only partial rebound on the JSE this morning as US index futures and most Asian markets trade firmer today. Tencent has rebounded firmly this morning in Asia, adding 3.38% on the day, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company, Naspers, which carries a 23% weighting in the Top40 index. BHP Billiton is 0.3% lower in Australia suggestive of a flat to marginally lower start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone CPI (July):prices to grow 0.1% MoM and 2.1% YoY, and core CPI to be 1% MoM from 0.9%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canadian CPI (July): expected to be 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY, from 0.1% and 2.5% respectively. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    3pm – US Michigan confidence index (August): sentiment forecast to fall to 96 from 97.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    RBS has appointed Kate Murray as interim CFO, to start at the beginning of October, while a search for a permanent replacement for Ewen Stevenson continues.  Global Ports said that it expects full-year figures to be in line with forecasts, after pre-tax losses narrowed to $2.1 million from $6.5 million for the first half.  Victoria Oil & Gas said that second quarter gas sales fell, to 183 million standard cubic feet per day, from 189 million in the first quarter.  Esure upgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    Glencore upgraded to hold at Liberum
    Henkel upgraded to outperform at MainFirst
    RBS upgraded to buy at HSBC
    BowLeven downgraded to neutral at Arden Partners
    DNO downgraded to hold at DNB Markets
    KSB downgraded to hold at LBBW
    dormakaba downgraded to hold at HSBC
     
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. JamesIG
    China announces a new round of trade talks with the US.  Asian shares, however, hit fresh one year lows on fears of an economic slowdown and the continued Turkish lira volatility. Tencent's earnings shock really weighs on investor sentiment. Amazon is said to be considering UK insurance comparison site. Bitcoin holds above the crucial $6000 mark as crypto traders eye possible bullish reversal. UK retail sales and Canadian ADP figures are the ones to look out for today. Asian overnight: A somewhat calm session overnight saw a slowdown in the recent rate of decline, with the ASX 200, Shenzhen composite, and Nikkei 225 all trading flat. The losses did continue for the likes of the Topix and Hang Seng, but even they were relatively moderate in comparison with recent moves. News that there will be a resumption of trade talks between the US and China authorities at the end of the month, is helping provide some reprieve for equity markets, whilst the dollar is trading marginally lower.
    The breakdown in relations between Turkey and the US remains a key concern, yet with the lira seemingly stabilising over the course of the week, it seems the measures being brought in by the Turkish have held arrest its decline for now. Data-wise, Japanese trade balance moved into a deficit, while a mixed Australian jobs report saw a fall in unemployment overshadowed by the first negative employment change figure in more than a year.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK retail sales release will ensure that markets will remain focused on the pound, following the recent jobs and inflation numbers. Make sure to look for the year-on-year figure given the volatility of monthly retail sales numbers. Also keep an eye out for eurozone trade balance data this morning. In the afternoon, the Canadian ADP jobs number in one of a handful of tier two releases, including the building permits, housing starts and Philly Fed manufacturing index from the US.
    South Africa: The rand is off its worst levels from yesterday although remains depressed after comments from Moody's Investor Relations yesterday. The ratings agency has expressed concern about the country's pace of fiscal consolidation as expectations for economic growth are lowered and the public sector wage bill rises. BHP Billiton is down 2.55% in Australia and Tencent Holdings is down 3.1% in Asia. This is not expected to fully translate into losses on our local bourse today, in lieu of a lot of the declines having been priced in yesterday. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK retail sales (July): expected to fall 0.3% MoM and rise 2.9% YoY, from -0.5% and 2.9% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30pm - US housing starts & building permits (July), Philadelphia Fed Index (August), initial jobless claims (w/e 11 August): permits to rise 1% MoM and starts to be 5% higher MoM. Philadelphia index to fall to 22 from 25.7. Claims to rise to 217K from 213K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Kingfisher reported a 3.4% rise in sales for the second quarter, to £3.26 billion, while like-for-like sales rose 1.6%. A weak performance in France hit overall growth.  KAZ Minerals said that pre-tax profit rose 48% to $355 million for the first-half, while revenue was up 22%, supported by higher average copper prices and increased copper sales.   Rank Group reported a 7.9% fall in operating profit, to £20.9 million for the full-year, and warned that current trading was proving difficult due to the warm weather seen in the six weeks to 12 August.   Axa upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe
    DNA upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Saipem upgraded to hold at Jefferies
    JCDecaux upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    AstraZeneca downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Informa cut to equal- weight at Morgan Stanley
    Leoni downgraded to hold at Quirin Privatbank
    Petrofac downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    IGTV featured video 
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. JamesIG
    MSCI Asia-Pacific index down more than 1% Turkey has doubled tariffs on some U.S. imports, notably alcohol and tobacco, as a response on what is allegedly deliberate US attacks on the Turkish economy. Trade war squabbles continue with China saying that US solar tariffs violate trade rules and lodge a WTO complaint.  Dollar rises to a 13 month high which pressures commodities, forcing gold to hit an 18 month low. Asian overnight: Asian markets traded in the red overnight, with Australian stocks providing the one bright spark over the session, closing out the session in positive territory. Chinese markets were chief amongst the losers once more, with yesterday’s data highlighting a slowdown in growth of several economic metrics. Emerging market stability remains a concern, with the Turkish Lira declining against the greenback as markets shift into the dollar as a safe-haven play.
    Ongoing trade tensions and emerging market fears (induced by the crisis in Turkey) are among the key themes in the market place right now. The dollar has resumed its strengthening trend and in turn we are seeing metal prices under pressure, with gold now trading well below $1200/oz and platinum trading below $800/oz.
    UK, US and Europe: European trading is likely to be lessened in volumes today, with French and Italian markets respecting a national holiday. However, the UK remains the centre of focus, with the latest inflation data released this morning. Market expectations of an upward shift would put further pressure on the Bank of England, despite the recent rate hike. The US focus will be upon the release of retail sales and industrial production figures, alongside the empire state manufacturing survey. Crude traders will also be keeping a close eye on the inventories data released later in the day.
    South Africa: The rand has also started to weaken after clawing back some strength yesterday. Tencent Holdings is trading 3.3% lower in Asia amidst a selloff in technology stocks and news that Chinese regulators halted the approval of game licenses. Tencent Holdings is also set to release results today. Naspers, a major holding company of Tencent, is expected to trade lower in lieu.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK CPI (July): expected to be 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, from 0% and 2.4% respectively. YoY core CPI to be 2.2% from 1.9%. Market to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30pm – US retail sales (July): forecast to grow 0.3% MoM from 0.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 10 August): forecast to see stockpiles rise by 750,000 barrels, from a 1.35 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Balfour Beatty said that first-half pre-tax profit rose to £50 million from £29 million a year ago, but total revenues dropped to £3.22 billion from £3.54 billion. Revenue is expected to be flat in the second half of the year.  Admiral reported a 9% rise in first-half pre-tax profits, to £211 million, while turnover was up 14.5% at £1.7 billion. More home insurance policies helped drive the performance, while the motor insurance business saw an 11.3% rise in profits to £249.5 million.  Amundi upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Mitchells & Butlers upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Esure upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Greene King upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Bayer downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Valeo downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Curetis downgraded to neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann
    Leifheit downgraded to sell at Berenberg

    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. JamesIG
    Turkeys government has said it would provide liquidity and cut reserve requirements to Turkish banks yesterday. Lira drops. MSCI world equity index which tracks shares in 47 countries across the globe, down 1.1% yesterday and subdued overnight. Nikkei bounces 2.3% overnight. Deutsche Bank pointed to 5 lenders most at risk in the country due to a ‘meaningful presence’ - BBVA, UCG, ING, BNPP, and HSBC - the latter of which was down 0.72% on the closing bell yesterday. In tech Netflix head of finance will leave after 14 years, whilst Musk looks to Saudi for Tesla privatisation funding. German pharma goliath Bayer fell as much as 10% after a $289m fine from the courts who ruled one of its weed killers contains carcinogenic chemicals. The firm faces 5,000 other possible suits. Gold loses safe-haven status, near 13-month low and breaks the $1200 support. Asian overnight: Global markets trade in a more subdued fashion after yesterday's Turkey induced panic. US Index Futures are trading modestly firmer while Asian markets trade mixed this morning. The dollar is trading modestly lower today against a broad basket of currencies, in turn we are seeing a slight lift in emerging market currencies. While off their respective lows, precious metal prices are trading at severely depressed levels.
    Japanese and Australian markets regained some sense of composure following the recent Turkey-led declines. Interestingly, the Chinese and Hong Kong markets remained entrenched in a downward spiral, with a whole host of disappointing economic numbers from China denting confidence. Weaker than expected fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures were accompanied by a sharp jump in unemployment. However, while China seems to be feeling the effects of their breakdown in trade with the US, the surprise rise in German GDP (0.5% from 0.3%) helped allay fears closer to home.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, Europe looks like the place to be, with a whole host of economic announcements ahead of a remarkably quiet economic calendar from the US. Early trade brings the pound into focus, with the latest jobs data bringing a particular focus on the average earnings numbers. We then shift our concerns across the channel, with the flash eurozone GDP reading due out alongside the latest German ZEW sentiment figures. With trade concerns denting this German centric survey, it is also worth watching the eurozone industrial production figure due out at the same time.
    South Africa: BHP Billiton is trading 1.5% higher in Australia, suggestive of a partial rebound in local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 4.54% in Asia sugestive of a weak start for major holding company Naspers, which accounts for a 23% weighting in the Jse Top 40 Index. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK employment data: July claimant count to fall by 7800, while the May unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, and average earnings for June (inc bonus) are forecast to be 2.7% higher. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): growth expected to be 0.3% QoQ and 2.1% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    10am – German ZEW (August): economic sentiment index expected to fall to -17.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Royal Mail has said that it will appeal the £50 million fine imposed by Ofcom, which the regulator imposed for anti-competitive practices.  Antofagasta reported a 32% drop in pre-tax profit for the first-half, to$465.6 million, while revenue was down 3.6% to $2.12 billion. Higher costs and lower production hit performance, and the firm slashed the dividend to 6.8p, down 34%. The firm added that trade tensions were creating ‘considerable market uncertainty’.  esure has reached a deal with Bain Capital, and will go private for £1.2 billion. This is a premium of 37% to Friday’s closing price. Bad weather pushed first-half profits down to £36.1 million, 20% lower, but gross written premiums rose 12% to £440.3 million.  Atlas Copco upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    TLG Immobilien raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Elementis upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Spectris upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    BBVA downgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    Siltronic downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Bayer downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Card Factory downgraded to sell at Berenberg

    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Geo-political troubles in Turkey push the lira lower, whilst selling in EM currencies spreads to South African rand and Argentine peso.  Asian stocks fall further.  Euro slips as the usual safe haven yen, the Swiss franc, and the dollar bid up. Cryptocurrencies mixed in the aftermath of the ETF rejection by the SEC.  Asian overnight: Asian markets exhibited a clear risk-off mood, with the fallout from the recent Turkish and Russian led selloff continuing to impact on market sentiment. Emerging market currencies have been under immense pressure last week and over the weekend led by declines in the Turkish lira. The major factors affecting Turkey and its currency (the Lira) are the economic sanctioning war it has entered into with the US as well as questionable economic policy which is said to not address the rampant inflation within the region. Turkish President Erdogan has battled against the recent selloff, stating that it was a foreign ‘operation’ against the country. With the ruble also selling off amid US sanctions, there is a clear rise in market worries over the developing markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have distinct lack of economic releases to drive price action. We also see a slowdown in the earnings calendar, with few notable companies releasing their data throughout the week. With that in mind, watch for ongoings in Turkey as markets continue to react to the potential further decline in the Lira and the fallout for Turkish companies.
    South Africa: The rand has followed other EM currency markets to trade at its worst levels against the dollar since November 2017. Global equity markets remain under short term pressure suggestive of a soft start on the Jse today. Tencent Holdings is down 2.3% in Asia which should see major holding company Naspers following suit, although the weaker rand might buffer some of these losses. BHP Billiton is down 1.39% in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for locally listed diversified resource counters. Local banking and retail counters are expected to be weaker on open today on account of the softer rand.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Chemring has said that profits will be £20 million lower than forecast due to an explosion at one of its flare factories. A knock-on effect in cash flow and net debt is expected as well.  Clarkson reported that pre-tax profit dropped 18% to £18 million for the first half, while revenue dropped to £152.6 million from £156.8 million. Depressed levels of sale and purchase activity, reduced rates in the tanker market and a falling US dollar were blamed. However, the firm said it was encouraged by the recent strengthening of the dollar, which suggest improvement in the second half.  BAE upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Wilh Wilhelmsen raised to hold at Danske Bank Markets
    Commerzbank upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    BBVA downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Bayer downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    Circassia downgraded to hold at Stifel
    Meggitt downgraded to equal-weight at Barclay

    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. JamesIG
    Asian markets move lower on the rather tedious reiteration of trade war fears. Huge volatility spike sees Turkish Lira dropping 13.5% against the USD. Oil prices edged up on worries that reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran would tighten supplies. UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June) later today. Asian overnight: Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower, as trade fears continue to impact market sentiment. Japanese markets where the biggest loser over the session, with a big outperformance in the Q2 GDP figure (0.5% from -0.2%) paving the way for a push higher for the Yen. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble and Turkish lira continue to fall amid strained relationships with the US and political concerns.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, GDP remains a focus, with the UK figures to watch out for. Given the new monthly growth readings, watch for that figure alongside the wider quarterly one. With UK manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production also being released, it is likely that the pound is set for a volatile morning. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Canadian jobs data alongside the US CPI inflation reading.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June): Monthly GDP reading expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, YoY GDP 1.3% expected from 1.2%, and MoM expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Balance of trade expected to see a larger deficit of -£3 billion, from -£2.79 billion. Manufacturing production expected to fall from 0.4% to 0.3% (MoM), while industrial production is expected to rise from -0.4% to 0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK indices

    1.30pm – Canadian jobs report (July): Employment change expected to fall from 31.8k to 24k. Unemployment exected to fall to 5.8% from 6%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    1.30pm – US CPI (July): YoY expected to remain flat at 2.9%, while MoM figure is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSP has launched a $175 million US bond offer to pay down existing debt. Private placement notes will be issued in October in five series, maturing between 2025 and 2028.  Moneysupermarket.com has completed the acquisition of Decision Technologies, a home communications and mobile phone comparison business.  BMW upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Paddy Power Betfair upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
    Renault upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Telefonica upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Bakkafrost downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Basic-Fit cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Rolls-Royce cut to underweight at JPMorgan
    Hill & Smith downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  16. JamesIG
    Asia share markets mixed, China up on stimulus hopes GBPUSD hits a one year low as Brexit fears continue. Sterling’s slump guided the FTSE on a stellar rally. USD/TRY poised for continued big volatility swings over US/Turkey meeting. Oil price steady after sliding 3% yesterday. Asian overnight: Asian stocks were largely higher, with Japanese indices providing the one outlier amid a wider rally led by rampant upside for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. One major drag has been energy stocks, coming off the back of a 3% fall in crude prices yesterday. The New Zealand dollar fell sharply, after the RBNZ governor set out a timetable which saw rate remain at rock-bottom levels into 2020. Elsewhere, Chinese CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, with CPI in particular rising from 1.9% to 2.1%.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the data remains relatively thin on the ground, with US PPIP and unemployment claims providing the only highlights. Earnings-wise, keep an eye out for figures from the likes of Macy's, Viacom, and News Corp.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US PPI (July): Forecast to fall from 3.4% to 3.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses, US indices
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Legal & General saw a fall in pre-tax profits (-19%) for the first half of the year, with market volatility impacted upon investment performance. This led to an 81% fall in investment (and other variances), from £175m to £33m. £90m of that H1 loss came from the firm’s capital traded assets portfolio. As a result, earnings per share fell 8% to 13p from 14.19p, with interim dividends for the group rising 7% to 4.60p per share (from 4.30p). Cineworld Group saw H1 profit almost trebled after a successful takeover of US group Regal Entertainment helped build on the success back at home in the UK and Ireland. The firm saw pro-forma revenues rise 2.5% in the UK and Ireland despite the heatwave and World Cup, while the US (which now accounts for 70% of Group sales) rose by 14.3%. Randgold Resources saw Q2 pre-tax profits halve from $150.16 million to $74.34 million, while earnings per share fell to $0.55, from $0.89 last year. Total revenues also suffered, falling to $283.66 million, from $336.79 million last year. Finally, sales of gold also decreased for the quarter, falling to $411.51 million from $422.14 million last year.  BBA Aviation upgraded to buy at Liberum
    Capita upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT 1.80 Pounds
    Deutsche Post upgraded to buy at HSBC
    UDG upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Ahold Delhaize cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Grammer downgraded to hold at Quirin Privatbank AG
    L’Oreal downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    Tecan downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  17. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 6 Aug 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 


    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  18. JamesIG
    Earnings solid coming from the US continues to push futures up overnight. Oil prices held steady, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran. Elon Musk tweeted last night regarding taking Tesla private. Stock up as he quoted a $420 price target. Crypto markets slump following SEC bitcoin ETF delay. Today there’s a 39.1 point FTSE div (updated from 39.0 on the dividend adjustment post) and a 25.8 Dow div. Asian overnight: Another good session for US markets helped to drive Asia higher, while oil prices continued to rise thanks to Iran tensions. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Australia rose, but Shanghai fell 0.6% as trade war fears continued to hit equities there. The US has said that it would be implementing a further 25% in tariffs on $16bn of Chinese imports in two weeks time. Trade balance data from China showed a smaller than expected surplus although exports increased more than expected in July as did imports into the region. While the S&P 500 failed to hit a new record, the index is now within easy distance of a fresh record, proving that bullish sentiment remains strong despite trade war rhetoric.

    UK, US and Europe: UK earnings from key firms such as Prudential, Glencore, and G4S help to offset a lighter macro calendar, although we do have a speech from FOMC member Barkin, plus weekly crude inventories and a New Zealand rate decision.
    South Africa: The Jse Top 40 Index is expected to open flat this morning tempering overnight gains with this mornings losses in global equity markets. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.74% firmer in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 0.95% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local diversified miners. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Paddy Power Betfair said that pre-tax profit rose to £106 million for the first half, while revenue was up 7%. The dividend was raised 3% to 67p. However, it downgraded its annual earnings guidance, to £460-480 million, from a previous £470-495 million.  Glencore reported a 13% rise in net income for the first half, to $2.8 billion, with a strong performance from metals and minerals and its energy products segments.  PageGroup saw first-half profit rise 18% to £67.2 million, while revenue was up 12% to £751.6 million. The dividend was raised by 5.1% to 4.1p per share, while a special dividend of 12.73p was also declared.  Countrywide upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
    Rio Tinto upgraded to add at AlphaValue
    Ibstock upgraded to buy at Goodbody
    Pendragon upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Alstria Office cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Maersk downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Rotork downgraded to hold at SocGen
    Spire Healthcare downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    Featured Video
      Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  19. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30 July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 


    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    Special Dividends
    Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount RUSSELL MC US 01/08/2018 Special Div 1.5 RUSSELL JBSS US 02/08/2018 Special Div 2 RUSSELL UFCS US 02/08/2018 Special Div 3 As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

  20. JamesIG
    Solid US earnings yesterday support the Asian market and China sees a rebound. GBP has slipped to its lowest level in 11 months on Brexit ‘no deal’ fears. The British heatwave and World Cup has boosted discretionary consumer spending in July according to Barclaycard. Oil gains as US renews sanctions against Iran. Gold gains slightly as lower price levels and the key level of $1200 support seen historically induce buying.  
    Asian overnight: Asian markets were largely in the green overnight, coming off the back of a US session which saw the Dow within touching distance of record highs. Interestingly, Chinese stocks were the main outperformer, with fears over their trade war with the US dissipating for now. The buying is however supported by below average volumes today questioning the sustainability thereof. The one outlier came from Australia, with the ASX 200 in the red despite the RBA deciding to retain their historically low monetary policy stance. Elsewhere, crude prices rose, with the imposition of fresh sanctions on Iran raising rumours that they would seek to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. 
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, there are few events of note worth watching out for, with much of the eurozone data already released from Germany earlier this morning. Coming off the back of yesterday’s weak German factory orders number, this morning has seen a greater deterioration in German Industrial production and trade surplus than expected, in a clear response to the breakdown of trade with the US. Elsewhere, look out for the UK Halifax House Price Index (HPI) and Canadian Ivey PMI releases as the only events of interest. The corporate calendar is a little more interesting, with Walt Disney and Snap earnings due out later today.
    South Africa:  The dollar has given up some of it recent strength this morning, adding a slight rebound in brent and precious metals as well as emerging market currencies, while base metals trade mixed on the day.  BHP Billiton is trading 1.6% lower in Australia suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.25% higher in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Standard Life Aberdeen saw a 37% drop in first-half profit, to £185 million, while adjusted pre-tax profit was down 8.3% to £478 million. The firm continued to see outflows, but it still plans to push on with cost saving measures. The dividend was raised 4.3% to 7.3p. InterContinental Hotels reported an 8% rise in first-half underlying operating profit, to $398 million, while underlying revenue for the period rose 4% to $875 million. 28 hotels were opened in the year, with a record 7000 new rooms added. Rotorksaid that first-half pre-tax profit rose 12% to £54.7 million, while revenue was up 10.4% to £331 million. Management expectations for the year remain unchanged. Hargreaves Lansdown reported a 10% rise in pre-tax profit to £292.4 million, for the year, while revenue was up 16% to £447.5 million. A special dividend of 7.8p per share will be paid, taking the overall dividend to 40p, up nearly 40% over the year. Nedbank Ltd Headline earnings increased 27,0% to R6 696m, boosted by associate income from ETI's returning to profitability, while our managed operations delivered positive, but slower, earnings growth from a high base. This translated into an increase in diluted headline earnings per share and headline earnings per share of 26,3% to 1 361 cents and 1 387 cents respectively, in line with the 23% to 28% range set out in the trading statement released on 26 July 2018.  CNH Industrial upgraded to add at AlphaValue
    Ferrexpo upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Prosafe upgraded to buy at Fearnley
    William Hill upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Goldman Sachs maintain neutral rating on Mondi (London) with a target price of 2200p
    Ocado downgraded to underweight at Barclays
    Siemens Healthineers downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Ultra Electronics cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  21. JamesIG
    Fresh trade war chat causes Asian equity markets to see red as investors remain spooked. PBoC helps support Chinese assets by raising the reserve requirements on some forward FX positions, effectively making it more expensive to bet against the the Chinese currency. US dollar remains steady on the US jobs data on Friday, with currency markets focusing on the yuan. Saudi crude production printed a surprising dip in July, and with American shale production seemingly plateauing oil prices saw a welcome rise. Gold is off it's 17 month lows but still hovers around the $1200 area of key support.  German factory orders the key thing to note on a macro front. Asian overnight: A mixed affair overnight saw Australian and Hong Kong stocks shrug off fears of a deepening trade war between the US and China, while Japanese and Chinese indices traded in the red at the end of the session. Rhetoric within the two sides stepped up once more, with China threatening a retaliatory set of tariffs on $60 billion of US exports. One of the key reasons for the strength in Australian indices was the gains we have seen in Iron Ore overnight, with the likes of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both enjoying a positive session. Asian equity markets are trading firmer this morning, although China's Shanghai Composite trades 1.3% lower and the Nikkei flat. In retaliation to Trump's tariff retorts, China has said that it is ready for a "protracted war" in the wake of what they believe to be unreasonable demands from the US.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, there are precious few economic events of note, with the German factory orders deterioration (-4% from 2.6%) already seen this morning providing one of the only releases of interest. Also keep an eye out for the Sentix investor confidence figure for the eurozone. A similar story for the US session, with a Canadian bank holiday adding to the calm of the day.
    South Africa: The rand is slightly softer and base metal prices trade mostly firmer this morning, while precious metal prices trade mixed. We are expecting the Jse to open up marginally firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is up 2.16% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent is 0.34% higher in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    HSBC saw adjusted profits fall 2% over the first six months of the year, with an 8% rise in adjusted operating expenses denting overall profitability. Pre-tax profits (~$6 billion) came in marginally below estimates too, while adjusted revenue rose by $2 billion compared with the same time last year. With the bank in a transitional period, the higher operating expenses come amid significant investments in both the retail and investment arms of the business. easyJet saw passengers rise 4.5% in July compared with the same time last year. On an annual basis, the number of passengers flying with the airline in the 12-months to July rose 6.2% compared with the same time of year in 2017. Vedanta Resources saw a 26% YoY jump in EBITDA for the first quarter ending in June 2018, driven by higher volumes and commodity prices. Standout operational highlights included record quarterly aluminium production (up 37% YoY), Gamsberg Zinc production to commence in September, and average Oil & Gas production up 4% YoY. Wizz Air said that passenger numbers rose in July by 23%, thanks to new routes to Moldova, Romania and Austria. Load factor jumped 0.8 points to 95.4%.   BMW upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Morgan Advanced upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Norsk Hydro upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Proximus upgraded to neutral at Citi
    Banco BPM cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    DNB downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Osram downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Safilo downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  22. JamesIG
    BoE raised rates yesterday in a universal vote for a 0.25 percent increase. Apple wins the race to the first trillion dollar company valuation in history closing up 3% on the day, 35c above the required $207.04 a share mark. Yes, that's trillion with 12 zeros as quoted in the title. US dollar at 2-week high as trade war dents confidence. Sonos Inc traded in a range as large as 35% (low to high) in debut IPO. Oil prices steady supported by speculators and traders placing new hedges in the futures market ahead of key US inventory data. Non-farm payrolls today at 1:30pm with an estimate of 192k, previously 213k. Average earnings expected to rise by 0.3%. Unemployment rate expected to drop to 3.9% from 4%.  Asian overnight: Trade fears continue to dominate in Asia, with the Chinese markets leading the losses as markets prepare for a potential raft of tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US. Apple hit $1 trillion market cap yesterday, with the news boosting stocks across many of the region. However, that tech boost failed to translate through to the Asian session. Data-wise, Australian retail sales remained stable at 0.4%, despite expectations of a slight decline. We also saw the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI fall to 52.8 from 53.9.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, today sees the heavy hitters come out on the economic front, with the UK services PMI reading due to bring substantial speculation over the UK economy’s largest sector. This will also have a knock-on effect upon GDP expectations. This PMI theme also carries into the US session, where the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading comes out for the US economy. However, the biggest event of the day comes in the form of the US jobs report, with markets expecting to see payrolls move slightly lower and earnings to tick higher. On the corporate calendar, watch out for earnings reports from the likes of Berkshire Hathaway, and Kraft Heinz to close out the week.
    South Africa: Gains in US equity markets last night are being tempered by mostly weaker Asian markets this morning, lending itself to the suggestion of a marginally positive start for the local bourse today. The US dollar has firmed to put some pressure on commodity prices, particularly that of gold which nears the psychological $1200/oz mark. The rand has weakened against the majors furthering losses in emerging market currencies, as the suggestion of a constitutional change by the ANC, in lieu of land expropriation without compensation, weighs on investor sentiment. BHP Billiton is down 1.7% in Australia alluding to a softer start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 2% in Asia, alluding to a similar start for locally listed major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    10am – eurozone retail sales (June): expected to rise 1.7% YoY from 1.4%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canada trade balance (June): expected to see deficit narrow to C$2.05 billion from C$2.77 billion. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (July): payrolls forecast to fall to 195K from 213K, while the unemployment rate falls to 3.9% from 4%. Average hourly earnings to be 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (July): forecast to fall to 59 from 59.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    RBS saw an attributable profit of £96 million in the three months to June, beating pessimistic forecasts of a £741 million loss. This brings first half profits to £888 million. Total revenues for H2 also beat market expectations, coming in £200 million above expectations, at £3.4bn. The firm payed their first dividend since being bailed out by the government, with an interim dividend of 2p per share due once they confirm the size of the US Department of Justice fine. IAG saw a sharp rise in half-year profits after tax and exceptional items, rising to €1.41 billion compared with €607 million. EPS also surged higher, rising to 65.9 cents from 27.5 cents. Total revenue gains were more muted, rising 3.1% to €11.2 billion. Looking ahead, the firm expects to see operating profits rise on a year-on-year basis at current fuel prices and exchange rates. Mondi Ltd Interim results showed basic underlying earnings of 89.2 euro cents per share, up 26% Rolls-Royce upgraded to buy at SocGen
    HelloFresh upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Intesa upgraded to buy at SocGen
    Metro AG upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    H&R downgraded to sell at DZ Bank
    MorphoSys cut to neutral at Oddo BHF
    Saipem downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Valneva downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  23. JamesIG
    Poor EoY results helped  pushed the FTSE lower yesterday as miners sold off, whilst the White House threat for further Chinese tariffs had a negative impact on the S&P energy and industrial sector which also suffered. In the US the Fed decided to hold rates ahead of a likely September hike. Range remains in the 1.75 to 2 per cent channel. According to a US trade representative, the refusal of China to meet US demands, along with implementation of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, spurred the decision to increase the 10% tariff to 25% on $200bn worth of Chinese imports. After consecutive losses for the previous couple of days, oil prices rose over the last session as speculators look for a bounce.  BoE widely expected to raise interest rates today. If a hike is confirmed from Threadneedle Street later today, this would only be the second this decade. Video from IGTV talking about the banks interest rate rises is below. Asian overnight: Trade war concerns have come back into focus to see Asian markets on the decline once again. Losses in Asian equity markets are substantial with China's Shanghai Composite down over 2% on the day. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were the big losers amid a sea of red overnight, as markets reacted to the potential of the US to raise a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. Recent tones of dissatisfaction from the Chinese over US blackmail seem to have a basis in this threat, and with the Chinese importing nowhere near $200 billion worth of US goods, this raises questions over what their response will be. The main data point overnight came from Australia, where a sharp rise in the trade balance surplus highlighted the sharp deterioration in imports (-1% from 3%) rather than anything major on the exports side (3% from 4%).
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK PMI focus continues, with the construction sector under the microscope in the morning. That UK theme continues at midday, with the Bank of England widely expected to raise rates for the first time this year. A relatively quiet US session means that there will be a greater focus on wider economic issues and corporate earnings reports. With Caterpillar, Apple, and Tesla all out of the way, today sees reports from the likes of GoPro, Kellogg, and AIG.
    South Africa: US Index futures are also lower but to a lesser extent, and in turn we are expecting a soft start on the Jse Top40 Index today. The dollar has firmed and precious metals remain at depressed prices. Base metals trade mixed this morning. BHP Billiton is down 3.3% in Australia suggestive of a weak start for local diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is down 3% in Asia suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK construction PMI (July): expected to fall to 52.5 from 53.1. Market to watch: GBP crosses

    12pm – BoE rate decision: an increase in interest rates to 0.75% is possible, and would be expected, but given recent weakness in UK data the bank may yet demur once again. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to rise to 220k from 217k. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Barclays saw their H1 profits whittled away amid huge litigation costs and settlements eroded what would have been a 20% rise in pre-tax profits for the firm. Instead, pre-tax profits fell to £1.6 billion, from £2.3 billion after a circa £2 billion pay-out, which includes a £1.4 billion settlement with the US DoJ. Looking behind those charges, the company saw a strong performance, with the UK arm raising pre-tax profits by 30%. Aviva reported a 2% fall in operating profits compared with last year, with the firm citing the impact of disposals, tough market conditions in Canada and higher weather related claims for the fall. Despite this, they expect to see these trends to reverse in H2, with the firm remaining on track to hit their 5% growth target for the year. Their EPS number came in above market estimates, with an operating EPS of 26.8p (vs 25.1p expected). The dividend was increased by 10% to 9.25p per share. Rolls-Royce expects their 2018 earnings results to come in towards the upper end of its guidance range, following a stronger than expected showing from their civil aerospace and power systems businesses. This comes despite a £554 million charge for issues relating to their Trent 1000 engine, which has been shrouded by issues over their durability. That figure will cover the Trent 1000 issues up until 2022. On the earnings side, the firm saw underlying revenues jump 14%, with underlying profits rising by £205 million, to £141 million. Liberty Holdings (SA) Interim results showed normalised headline earnings per share to have increased by 6%  Elementis upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Asos rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    Gamma Communications rated new buy at Citi
    Norma upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Shell cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Sodexo downgraded to market perform at Bernstein
    Subsea 7 downgraded to underperform at Macquarie
    WDP downgraded to neutral at Kempen & Co
     
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  24. JamesIG
    Asian equity markets have crept slightly higher overnight following on from a firm Wall Street finish yesterday. Apple gains 4% on good results yesterday as it races with Amazon to be the world's first trillion dollar company. Turkey sharply increased their inflation forecast yesterday to 13.4% just a week after keeping interest rates on hold. Bitcoin pulls back to a one week low, however still ends the month about 20% higher MoM. Oil has pulled back after industry data showed US stockpiles rose unexpectedly.  Tesla are set to release their Q2 results about one month after announcing it met its most recent target of building 5,000 Model 3's /week. The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on interest rate at 19.00 BST. Asian overnight: Japanese markets were the one outlier overnight, as the promise of continued loose monetary policy from the BoJ earlier in the week continues to have a toll on the yen and Japanese stocks. Uncertainty continues to rein amid a week of hugely significant economic and corporate releases. Oil prices have been falling back amid speculation that sanctions on Iranian exports could be avoided. On the data front, New Zealand posted weaker jobs data, with a slight fall in the employment change figure (0.5% from 0.6%) accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment (4.5% from 4.4%).
    UK, US and Europe: US Index futures trade firmer this morning while Asian markets trade mixed. The US dollar has firmed after better than expected consumer confidence data was released yesterday afternoon. Looking ahead, the beginning of a new month brings the usual trio of UK PMI readings, with the manufacturing figure kicking things off today. There are a host of eurozone PMI surveys, but for the most part they are revisions rather than the preliminary reading in the UK.
    That PMI theme will carry into the US session, with the Canadian and US ISM manufacturing PMI surveys released later on. We also see the first of the major data points from the US, with the ADP payrolls figure ahead of this evening’s FOMC meeting. Crude markets will also expect volatility, with the release of the US crude inventories data earlier on in the afternoon. On the corporate front, all eyes will be on Tesla as Elon Musk hopes to prove the firm can be profitable going forward.
    South Africa:  The rand while weaker against the strengthening US dollar, has underperformed its emerging market currency peers following news that ruling party, the ANC had resolved to change the South African constitution in lieu of land redistribution without compensation. Rand hedge industrial counters are expected to outperform on the Jse this morning. While a stronger dollar has weighed on commodity prices, suggestions that China US trade talks will resume have provided some reprieve.  BHP Billiton is up 0.63% in Australia and Tencent Holdings trades 0.5% higher in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters and Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Direct Line saw a decline in operating profit (-1.5%) and pre-tax profit (-13.9%) in H1, driven predominantly by higher weather-related claims. Normalised for weather, operating profit was slightly higher compared with H1 2017. Interim dividend of 7p established in line with business growth.  BAE Systems saw a fall in sales (-3%), underlying EBITDA (-6%), and underlying EPS (-2%) for H1 2018, as the firm pushed through a ‘transition earnings year’. Despite this fall in metrics across the firm, they have raised dividends to 9p (from 8.8p) as they look forward to a strong H2. Significant wins on the Australian SEA 5000 and US Amphibious Combat Vehicle programmes, coupled with the launch of the UK Combat Air Strategy, are expected to provide strong momentum going forward. Lloyds Banking Group saw a 23% jump in pre-tax profit to £3.1 billion for the first half of 2018, beating market expectations, while also raising their full-year guidance. This is despite another £460 million worth of PPI claims, taking the total cost of the scandal to £19.2 billion.  Next saw a 4.5% rise in full price sales for the first half of 2018, with online sales growth (+15.5%) far outstripping instore activity (-5.3%). The extended period of sunshine in the UK has helped drive sales of summer products, yet with the possibility that these sales have simply been pulled forward from August, sales and profits guidance remains the same for the year.  ArcelorMittal South Africa Interim results showed Ebitda improved by R2 121 million from a loss of R534 million to a profit of R1 587 million. Standard Chartered upgraded to hold at HSBC
    BHP upgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    EDF upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Peugeot upgraded to buy at Citi
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Hammerson downgraded to underperform at Jefferies
    Pearson downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Rightmove downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    Worldline downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  25. JamesIG
    Asian overnight equity markets broadly subdued for central banks data test.  Dollar steady and range bound before key central bank meetings this week. Oil is mixed, however brent has eased as trade tensions continue to weigh. Gold prices have eased on the slightly stronger dollar. With Facebook, Twitter and Intel results all disappointing last week, the street may be cautious with the release of Apple's end of year tomorrow. Asian overnight: Overnight markets have started the week in a downbeat fashion, with losses across Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian markets amid a week of possible monetary tightening from the BoE and (potentially) the BoJ. The Nikkei is down 0.75%, as we lead into this week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. With US tech stocks failing to perform on Friday, that uncertainty has carried through into this new week, with earnings season likely to continue dominating sentiment. Data-wise, Japanese retail sales rose to 1.65; marginally lower than the 1.7% expected.
     
    UK, US and Europe: Global markets are trading softer this morning with US Index Futures continuing Friday's decline which was led by the US Tech sector (after Twitter results disappointed). Looking ahead, today represents a very quiet day on the economic calendar, with little to no major events to keep an eye out for. As we enter the start of a new month, this lull will not last long, with events coming thick and fast towards the second half of the week. The dollar has firmed since Friday's strong GDP print. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings figures from Caterpillar, Loews Corp, and Electronic Arts. More results listed below.
    South Africa: Precious metals and base metals trade softer this morning after gains on Friday. The rand is slightly weaker although still well its worst levels of the month. BHP Billiton is down 0.6% in Australia, suggestive of a lower start for local diversified mining counter. Tencent Holdings is down 2.57% suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Earnings look ahead: Catapillar look to releases results today, follower by Standard Chartered, Coats Group, Ralph Lauren, Pfizer, Procter and Gamble and Apple tomorrow. Wednesday will see Capita, BAA Aviation, BAE Group, Molson Coors, Metlife and TripAdvisor releases results, with a trading statement coming from Next.Aviva, the LSE Group, Inmarsat, Duke Energy, MGM Resorts and Yum! Brands will be on Thursday, whilst Heinz, Essentra and Noble Energy see off the end of the week. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    10am – eurozone business confidence (July): forecast to rise to 1.4 from 1.39. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    3pm – US pending home sales (June): forecast to fall 1.5% YoY from -2.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Hiscox saw a strong start to 2018, with the insurance firm seeing a 21% growth in gross premiums written for H1. They saw profit before tax rise 21%, to $154 million, with the firm on track to exceed over 1 million customers in 2018. Senior posted a 31% rise in pre-tax profit compared with last year, with the firm trading slightly ahead of expectations. The Group delivered another strong cash performance, with good margin progression in both Aerospace and Flexonics. Interim dividend increased has been raised by 6.8%, to 2.19p per share. Hulamin headline earnings per share for the interim period declined by 77% from the prior years comparative period. Massmart An updated interim trading statement showed headline earnings expected to be between 16% and 26% lowr than the prior years comparative period.  Featured Video
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