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JamesIG

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Blog Entries posted by JamesIG

  1. JamesIG
    Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following our previous chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
    Submit your questions now or during the live show
    Use the comments section at the bottom of the blog (even if you're not an IG client or not logged in) and we'll put them to the panel. If there are any questions which we don't get to in the live show our senior sales traders will look to get you an answer and continue the discussion. We'll also look to answer questions posted here.
    UPDATE at 13.01: minor technical issues will cause a delay with the start of the stream. I will update when we're live. 
    UPDATE at 13.07: This is now live on the platform only. We'll push to Community afterwards. 
    UPDATE at 14.10: The live show is now accessible above.
    With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of the oil market, we’ll be taking a look at how the industry changes might influence the price of oil. You can watch the live stream at 1pm (UK time) via the trading platform.
  2. JamesIG
    Asian stocks generally up on hopes trade tensions may ease. Hopes of a China - US trade resolution pushed up copper, often seen as a barometer for the economic outlook, dragging behind it miners such as BHP Billiton and Glencore. Venezuela have debased their currency taking off five zeros, along with increase minimum wage by 3000% in and effort to prop up their economy. Yesterday the world trade organisation confirmed that Turkey had lodged a trade dispute against the US. Gold gains as Trumps remarks weigh on the US dollar, whilst oil edges up on tighter US outlook and Iran sanctions. See what's going on with London house prices in the IGTV video featured video below. Asian overnight: Another mixed Asian session overnight, with the Japanese Topix and Australian ASX 200 providing the two negative movers in an otherwise positive session. Donald Trump has downplayed expectations for tomorrow's trade talks between the US and China, yet Chinese stocks managed to gain significant ground nonetheless. Trump also hit out at the Fed over their consistent rate hikes since he came to power, sending the dollar lower. US index futures and most Asian equity markets are trading flat to modestly higher this morning, although China's Shanghai Composite has managed to post significant gains this morning (+1.37%). The scheduled news calendar for today is relatively light and Turkish markets are closed, to removing some of the short term catalysts for volatility.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have precious few major events of note to look out for. Thus markets will likely to continue to feed off any comments from Donald Trump as we head towards tomorrow's summit.
    South Africa:  The US dollar has weakened and with it aided some gains in commodity prices and strength in emerging market currencies such as the rand. BHP Billiton is down 1.87% in Australia after releasing FY18 results, suggestive of a similar move for the local Billiton listing. Tencent Holdings is down 0.3% in Asia, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. With this in mind we expect a flat to marginally lower start on the Jse Top40 Index today. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Persimmon said first-half pre-tax profit rose 13% to £516.3 million, while average selling prices rose 1% to £215,813 over the year. Current forward sales were 6% higher compared to a year earlier, at £2.1 billion.   BHP Billiton said that full-year net profit fell 37% to $3.7 billion, thanks to impairments of $5.2 billion. Underlying profit was 33% higher at $8.93 billion, while revenue was up 21% to $43.64 billion, helped by higher production and increased prices for copper, coal and oil. The dividend was boosted by 20 cents to 63 cents per share.  Wood Group suffered a net loss of $52 million for the first-half, due to a write-down on its EthosEnergy gas turbine services business. Operating profit before exceptionals however rose 74% to $125 million, while revenue was up 13 overall. The dividend was boosted to 11.3 cents per share, from 11.1 cents. It remains on track to hit full-year expectations.  Polymetal reported a 45% jump in first-half profit, to $175 million, while revenue was up 16% to $789 million. The firm enjoyed higher gold production and selling prices in gold, offsetting lower silver output. The dividend was raised to 17 cents per share, from 14 cents a year earlier. . Imperial Holdings  FY18 results showed that excluding businesses held for sale, total revenue and operating profit for the group increased by 13% and 7% respectively. BHP Billiton FY18 results  showed basic earnings per share to have remained flat from the prior financial year.  Harmony Gold FY18 results headline earnings per share to have declined by 38% (in USc) from the prior year. Aggreko upgraded to buy at HSBC
    H&R upgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    Bayer upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Deutsche Wohnen upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Atlantia downgraded to hold at Santander
    Bodycote downgraded to sell at Panmure Gordon
    Medistim downgraded to sell at SpareBank
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  3. JamesIG
    Mark Carney will stay on as the BoE (Bank of England) governor until the end of January 2020 to help the UK through any Brexit turbulence. Unilever laid out plans for it's December listing as a new Dutch entity, initiated originally due to Brexit risks. China is set to request the World Trade Organization (WTO) to hit the US with good duties. Dollar slips. Oil prices have risen following a report that the US crude inventories are set to decline. Whilst top oil producer Russia warns of a fragile global oil market, sanctions on Iran are expected to tighten supply. Asian overnight: Trade war concerns continue to loom over Asian markets, with the Hang Seng providing the one outlier within a wider bearish story for overnight indices. Chinese stocks suffered in particular, as the two sides refuse to back down amid claims of further impending sanctions. Oil prices managed to push higher, as Hurricane Florence continues to bear down upon the East coast. Meanwhile, in Australia we saw a further deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey, sending AUDUSD lower yet again. Global markets are looking a little healthier this morning with US Index Futures extending overnight gains in US equity markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, crude inventories will ensure that WTI and Brent remain at the forefront of the investor mindset. However, apart from the US PPI inflation figure, we are looking at a relatively quiet day for the European and US session calendars. Keep an eye out for an appearance from Fed member Brainard later in the day. 
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare Index is in turn expected to trade slightly firmer on open. The dollar has recouped some of yesterday's losses which see's precious metal prices trading slightly lower this morning. The trade war narrative continues to weigh on base metal prices which were under significant pressure yesterday, although they are posting a marginal recovery this morning. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.45% higher in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.61% lower in Australia this morning suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US PPI (August): producer prices to rise 0.2% MoM from 0%, and core PPI to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 September): stockpiles expected to fall by 3.4 million barrels from a 4.3 million drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSE has issued a profit warning, saying that adjusted operating profit for the first half will be down 50% compared to a year earlier, due to warmer weather and higher prices that have hit demand.  Sports Direct said it continued to trade in line with expectations, with underlying EBITDA to rise between 5% and 15%, excluding the acquisition of House of Fraser.  Clover Industries FY18 results showed normalised headline earnings earnings per share to have increased by 224.7%. LSE Upgraded to Buy at AlphaValue
    Taylor Wimpey Upgraded to Overweight at Barclays
    Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Gestamp Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Moody's has placed MTN on review for downgrade 
    Telefonica Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan
    Crest Nicholson Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  4. JamesIG
    Asian overnight: Market volatility remains evident throughout Asia, with yesterday’s sharp tumble being followed up by a strong rebound overnight. Chief amongst those gainers were the Chinese markets, which gained ground despite the ongoing trade war with the US. Suggestions that China and the US could resume trade talks has helped boost short term market sentiment. Crude prices were also fighting back in the wake of the biggest one-day decline in more than two years yesterday.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a relatively quiet European session sees industrial production data from the eurozone take precedence in the lead up to the latest ECB monetary policy minutes. Meanwhile, the US will be keeping a close eye out for the CPI inflation data and unemployment claims number.
    South Africa: We are expecting a higher open on the local SA bourse today as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning. Emerging market currencies and metal prices are in turn finding some reprieve today. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.6% lower in Australia suggestive of a slightly softer start for locally listed diversified miners. Mining production and sales data is scheduled for release at 11:30am and Manufacturing production and sales data is scheduled for release at 1pm today. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    10am – eurozone industrial production (May): expected to be 2.8% YoY and 0.8% MoM, from 1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30pm – US CPI (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 7 July) headline CPI to be 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI to be 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, from 0.2% and 2.2% respectively. Initial jobless claims to fall to 227,000 for the week, from 231,000 a week earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Dunelm said that store like-for-like sales were up 1% to £805 million for the year to 30 July, while online sales rose 37.9% like-for-like to £105.4 million. Pre-tax profit is expected to be £102 million for the full year.  ASOS expects full-year profit to be in line with forecasts, as total sales rose 22% to £802.7 million for the four months to 30 June. Full-year pre-tax profit is expected to be around £101 million.  B&M European Value Retail said that it enjoyed a strong start to the year, with revenue growth of 21.3% overall in the quarter, up 1.6% on a like-for-like basis.  Aker BP upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Hapag-Lloyd raised to neutral at Goldman
    Maersk upgraded to buy at Goldman
    Roche upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    ITV downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Pagegroup downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Sky cut to neutral at Macquarie
    Veidekke downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. JamesIG
    Asian shares gain on US - China trade talks, whilst USD dips. Rating agency Fitch warned that the chance of a Brexit no deal is a ‘growing possibility’, and uncertainty is so great that it’s impossible to accurately predict a likely outcome. Reports that Amazon is looking to launch its own comparison site sent ripples through the UK listed rivals moneysupermarket, gocompare, and confused.com owner Admiral. Aftershocks of World Cup fever and the good weather are seen in rising UK retail sales (up 0.7% in July), a boost to home and garden DIY sales for B&Q, and better profit projections for Carlsberg. Oil prices slip amid fears over global economic growth. US Baker Hughes to keep an eye on later today.  Asian overnight: Asian markets gained ground thanks to subsiding trade war concerns, while worries about the Turkish situation also eased for the time being. It looks like the US and China are preparing to talk, and this should help equities to trade in a more optimistic fashion. US markets staged an impressive rebound yesterday, but once again Europe was left trailing behind, repeating the dominant theme of the year so far. The rebound has been catalyzed by optimism over the revisiting of trade talks between China and the US at the end of the month. The trade war rhetoric does still remain a relevant theme in the market place and is still expected to cause further market volatility going forward, as is the economic crisis in Turkey and its possible contagion effects.
    UK, US and Europe: Eurozone CPI dominates the first part of the day, while Canadian CPI and then Michigan confidence data are expected later today. With little corporate data on the calendar, investors will watch Tesla stock this afternoon after the New York Times published an interview with CEO Elon Musk.
    South Africa: We are expecting a continued but only partial rebound on the JSE this morning as US index futures and most Asian markets trade firmer today. Tencent has rebounded firmly this morning in Asia, adding 3.38% on the day, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company, Naspers, which carries a 23% weighting in the Top40 index. BHP Billiton is 0.3% lower in Australia suggestive of a flat to marginally lower start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone CPI (July):prices to grow 0.1% MoM and 2.1% YoY, and core CPI to be 1% MoM from 0.9%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canadian CPI (July): expected to be 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY, from 0.1% and 2.5% respectively. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    3pm – US Michigan confidence index (August): sentiment forecast to fall to 96 from 97.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    RBS has appointed Kate Murray as interim CFO, to start at the beginning of October, while a search for a permanent replacement for Ewen Stevenson continues.  Global Ports said that it expects full-year figures to be in line with forecasts, after pre-tax losses narrowed to $2.1 million from $6.5 million for the first half.  Victoria Oil & Gas said that second quarter gas sales fell, to 183 million standard cubic feet per day, from 189 million in the first quarter.  Esure upgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    Glencore upgraded to hold at Liberum
    Henkel upgraded to outperform at MainFirst
    RBS upgraded to buy at HSBC
    BowLeven downgraded to neutral at Arden Partners
    DNO downgraded to hold at DNB Markets
    KSB downgraded to hold at LBBW
    dormakaba downgraded to hold at HSBC
     
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. JamesIG
    The rebound in Chinese stock markets has extended and US bond yields are steady after the market digested the trade tariff news. MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.95%, whilst the Japanese Nikkei rises 1.3% A reclassification of the S&P 500 will see tech behemoth such as Facebook and Alphabet move from 'information tech' stocks into 'communication services' along with about a fifth of the index. Oil prices are seen to consolidate after rally. Cryptocurrency markets are holding steady, and with higher lows being made across the board this could signal a trend reversal for many technical traders. UK inflation data is in focus today, likely to be closely watched as investors economic optimism hits a near seven year low. Asian overnight: Asian markets continue to defy expectations, with gains throughout the region flying in the face of an intensified trade breakdown between the US and China. In a retaliation to the US decision to implement tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, China has now responded with further duties on $60bn of US imports. Chinese authorities have however said that they would not intervene in the currency market and have not yet removed themselves from upcoming bilateral talks on trade with the US. Despite both sides announcing new tariffs yesterday, the level of those levies are somewhat lower than expected, sparking a relief rally.
    In Japan the BoJ decided to maintain a steady monetary policy, with the bank stating that they will maintain extremely low rates for an extended period of time.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session will focus on the UK inflation data, with CPI expected to reverse last month’s gain, with a tick lower to 2.4%. A similar move is expected with core CPI, where a shift down to 1.8% would help continue the downward spiral of 2018. CPI, which stands for Consumer Price Index, is a key measure of inflation for the UK and is used by the Bank of England in making interest rate decisions. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical British household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Sterling to purchase this same set of basic consumer items
    The afternoon brings building permits and housing starts from the US, while an appearance from Mario Draghi and the crude inventories means that we should have a sufficient amount of data to shift the needle.
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare index is expected to post  gains this morning following its international counterparts. The rand is holding on to short term gains while commodity prices tick higher on the back of a weaker dollar. Tencent Holdings is trading 2% higher in Asia suggestive of a positive start major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 2.89% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK CPI (August): CPI to rise 2.7% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.3% MoM from 0%. Core CPI to be 2.1% YoY from 1.9%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (August): permits to fall 0.8% MoM and starts to rise 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 14 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 1.2 million barrels, from a 5.3 million barrels drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: WTI, Brent
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Stagecoach said that it has made a good start to its financial year, with forecasts unchanged despite a mixed performance, as revenue weakened in North America but UK rail revenue rose.   Kingfisher said that underlying pre-tax profit fell 14.8% to £375 million for the first half, while first-half gross margin fell 40 basis points. The firm said it remained on track to hit strategic milestones  NEX will pay $50 million to settle claims in the US relating to interest rate benchmark manipulation.   BAT upgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    CNP Assurances upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Commerzbank upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Concentric upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Castellum downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    Coloplast downgraded to hold at ABG
    Credit Agricole cut to neutral at Mediobanca
    Fabege downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  7. JamesIG
    Stocks have fallen whilst the dollar remains effected on trade tensions and tariff wars. The AUD has given up gains on GDP data. Despite being the most shorted stock on Wall Street (even ahead of Tesla), Amazon pipped the $1 trillion valuation briefly yesterday as it surpassed the $2,050.27 a share requirement. Its expected that there will be no change in the FTSE 100 for the first time in 12 years today with no individual constituents being upgraded or downgraded. The British construction sector slowed in August as both civil engineering firms and house builders held back from projects. With a reading of 52.9 the IHS Markit PMI figure still shows the sector is growing, but it was much lower than the 55 expected by economists. On Tuesday Mercedes showed how aggressively it was gunning for the top spot in upscale battery car market currently dominated by Tesla as it showcased it's first fully electric car, the EQC. Oil has pulled back over 3% from the highs of yesterday after reports that the impact of a tropical storm in the US Gulf coast won't have as much of an impact as initially expected. Asian overnight: An overwhelmingly bearish session overnight has seen substantial losses throughout Hong Kong (-2%), Chinese (-1%), and Australian (-1%) markets. Much of this pessimism can be attributed to the ongoing fears over US trade relations with Canada and China. With talks between the US and Canada set to resume today, there is little optimism that we will see them reach a deal. On economic front, a surprise boost for the Australian dollar came amid a significant beat on the Q2 GDP figure. An upward revision to the Q1 figure also helped boost sentiment, reflecting an economic outperformance despite ongoing trade fears.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK services PMI is going to provide the one dominant economic reading from the European session. Coming off the back of two poor readings from the construction and manufacturing PMI surveys, today’s release represents the big one for the pound. The afternoon brings both the Canadian and US trade balance figures into view, at a time where the two sides continue to attempt to put together some form of renewed NAFTA deal. Canada remains in view a little later, with the release of the BoC rate decision expected to bring no change from the committee.
    South Africa: The Jse AllShare index looks set to trade weaker this morning as poor economic growth reported adds further negative sentiment to what is risk off global market environment today. Emerging market fears continue to stem from Turkey, Argentina, China and to a lessor extent South Africa at present. The dollar has strengthened further to put pressure on commodity prices, particularly that of precious metals. Tencent Holdings is trading 3.6% lower in Asia, which should see major holding company Naspers following suite. BHP Billiton is down 2.66% in Australia, perhaps a precursor for what to expect from locally listed diversified resource counters this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30 – UK services PMI (August): forecast to rise to 54.7 from 53.5. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US trade balance (July): deficit to widen to $46.7 billion from $46.3 billion. Market to watch: USD crosses
    1.30pm – Canada trade balance (July): deficit to widen to C$2.3 billion from C$0.63 billion. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    3pm – BoC rate decision: no change expected. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Barratt Developments reported a 9.2% rise in pre-tax profits for the year, to a record £835.5 million, while gross margins and the number of new homes completed both rose. It remains confident in the outlook for the housing market.  William Hill has formed a partnership with Nevada firm Eldorado Resorts, with the latter becoming William Hill’s exclusive partner in the provision of digital and land-based sports betting. The partnership will cover 13 states where sports betting is legal or betting bills have been tabled.  Berkeley Group said that prices and demand remained robust in London and the south-east between May and August, but that the market in London remained constricted by high transaction costs and economic uncertainty.  Vodafone Upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein
    Antofagasta Raised to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    BP Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Zumtobel Upgraded to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Intrum Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Tele2 Downgraded to Underperform at RBC
    Vonovia Downgraded to Hold at Nord/LB
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  8. JamesIG
    Australian equity markets gain after leadership vote ends political uncertainty with the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison. Hang Seng equity market slips after US-China trade talks end without progress. Saudi Arabia has denied that its $2 trillion Aramco IPO has been cancelled, and that they’re instead waiting for “appropriate circumstances and appropriate time” for the listing. Trade concerns continue to hit gold prices however they do make gains, slowly inching up, whilst oil rises on US sanctions on Iran cloud supply outlook. Asian overnight: A largely positive session overnight has seen gains across Japanese, Australian, and Chinese markets, with the Hang Seng the one outlier after it traded moderately in the red. This comes despite heightened fears for US-China trade, with the two-day talks between the two countries ending in deadlock. With the US set to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports, the big question is how China will respond. Meanwhile, we saw the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison, with the Australian dollar gaining ground at the resolution of recent political uncertainty.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet economic calendar means that markets will continue to focus on US led political and economic concerns. Most notably US-Chinese trade relations. The big event comes from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell is set to make his first appearances since being criticised by Donald Trump. All signs are pointing towards Trump’s attempts to influence actions at the Fed going the same way as his comments on the Attorney General, with Jeff Sessions saying that the Justice department will not be influenced by Trump’s actions. Thus look out for a continued hawkish tone from Powell, with the Fed looking set to maintain its rate rise pathway.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (July): forecast to grow 0.8% MoM from 1%, while excluding transportation orders expected to rise 0.3% from 0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    CEO of ARK investments published an open letter to Tesla’s Elon Musk pleading him to keep the electric car manufacturer publicly valued. She argued the stock could rise to $4000 in 5 years if the company switched focus to mobility as a service rather than manufacturing. Petrofac has sold its interest in a North Sea oil facility to Ithaca Energy for $292 million.   Computacenter said that, for the first half, statutory pre-tax profit was up 9.5% to £52 million, while revenue was 18% higher at £2.01 billion.  Antofagasta upgraded to outperform at RBC
    N Brown upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Ted Baker upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Hamborner REIT downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Implenia downgraded to market perform at ZKB
    John Laing Group downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  9. JamesIG
    USDJPY falls on the back of an intensifying trade war dispute. ‘Fang’ stocks and the heavily tech centric Nasdaq slump on the same trade war fears. Turkish lira gains from yesterday gives further reason for overseas investment in Turkey to remain wary. USDTRY looking like it could have entered a period of consolidation after rising nearly 25% from the beginning of the year. Oil prices rise on the Libyan oil export uncertainty, however OPEC still the overarching dampener with plans to raise output.  Gold inching down on US rate hike expectation. Bitcoin at critical level of support previously hit in April and February 2018, and previously November 2017. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded largely in the red overnight, as marginal gains throughout Japanese indices provided the one standout performer of the session. This follows yesterday's significant market declines where US Indices fell in excess of 1% (Nasdaq more than 2%). Continued fears over the impending breakdown in trade between China and the US ensured that Chinese equities were the worst performer, with the Shenzhen composite trading over 1% lower. On the data front, the BoJ core CPI reading failed to rise as expected, with the data set showing underlying inflation remaining at 0.5%.
    UK, US and Europe: Another quiet day on the economic calendar sees the release of US consumer confidence this afternoon as the only major event of note. That is not to say that market volatility is going to be low, as evident by yesterday’s sharp selloff throughout European and US indices despite a near empty economic calendar.
    South Africa: While trade war talks still linger markets look to have stopped the hemorrhaging for now and the local bourse looks to have already priced in much of the overnight weakness. Commodity prices remain depressed and the dollar firm. The rand remains weak although off its worst levels finding directional catalysts from factor external rather than domestic at the moment. BHP Billiton is trading 1% lower in Australia suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 0.3% lower on the Hang Seng suggesting a flat to slightly lower start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    3pm – US consumer confidence (June): expected to hold at 128. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Inmarsat, the privately listed communications company, has confirmed its considering a bid from Eutelsat. This has helped push the stock, which previously saw prices of 1100p in 2015 and as low as 340p in April of this year, trade above 630p. Eutelsat has until 5pm on the 23rd July to confirm an intention or rule itself out for 6 months.
    Health conscious millennials have pushed Whittards of Chelsea back in the black yesterday to a net profit of just over a quarter of a million pounds, up from a net loss of £1.4m in 2016. The craze for herbal teas amongst the younger generation, for many at the cost of caffeine based drinks such as coffee, has been an important factor in the turn around.
    Petrofac said that it continued to trade in line with forecasts, with the year-to-date order book reaching $1.8 billion. 
    Carpetright said that it suffered an annual loss of £71 million for the year, while borrowing rose sharply due to restructuring costs. Debt rose from £10 million to £54 million. 
    Polymetal has started its new gold mine in Kazazkstan ahead of schedule. Mining activities had reached full design capacity, and ‘significant’ cash flow and net income contribution should start in Q4 this year. 
    ASML upgraded to add at AlphaValue
    Andritz upgraded to buy at Goldman
    Renault upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Royal Mail upgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Eutelsat downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Gazprom GDRs cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
    Featured video
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. JamesIG
    Whilst the Tokyo markets are on holiday, most other Asian equity markets slip on reports that Washington are continuing their tariff roll outs with a focus once more on Chinese imports. Thin liquidity due to the closed Japanese market didn't help, however moves in currencies seem minor. Dollar steady against a basket of major currencies, whilst gold nudges up. Oil prices have generally eased as the trade war row potentially distorts the demand outlook. The cryptocurrency market is seeing mixed signals as the total market cap holds a strong position over the weekend. Tim Draper, Silicon Valley venture capitalist, has predicted an $80 trillion market cap in the next 15 years, whilst others point to stronger arguments in favor of an ETF market.  Asian overnight: A largely bearish start to the week has seen Chinese and Hong Kong stocks trading sharply lower, with the Australian ASX 200 pushing back in the opposite direction in the absence of Japanese markets whom are on a national holiday. Weather related crises throughout the world have been wreaking havoc on a number of countries, and the landfall of Typhoon Mangkhut on Hong Kong and Chinese land has dented confidence in the region. Damage to the Macau area meant that we saw a sharp decline in casino stocks. Meanwhile, news that China could actually reject the latest trade talk proposals given the likely imposition of tariffs on another $200bn of goods, risk sentiment as a whole isn’t great in the region.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have a day with precious few hugely notable releases, with the eurozone final CPI grabbing the headlines in the morning. For the afternoon, look out for the US empire state manufacturing survey, as we start the week off in a somewhat slow fashion.
    South Africa: Weaker US Index Futures and Asian equity markets this morning are suggestive of a slightly softer start for the JSE All Share Index. The rand along with its emerging market currency peers has softened against the dollar, while metal prices are also trading lower this morning. BHP Billiton is 0.66% lower in Australia suggestive of a weaker start today for locally listed diversified miners. Tencent Holdings is down 2.55% in Asia, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone inflation (August): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM from -0.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US NY Empire State mfg index (September): index to fall to 23.6 from 25.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Prudential said that it expects its demerged UK investments business, M&G Prudential, to hold around £3.5 billion of subordinated debt.  Sirius Minerals has signed a take-or-pay supply agreement with Brazilian firm Cibrafertil, for the supply and resale of potash into Brazil and other countries.  Dairy Crest expects first half profits and revenue to be ahead of last year, due to a strong performance from its Clover and Cathedral City brands.   Boohoo has appointed Primark’s chief operating officer John Lyttle as its new CEO.  Immofinanz Upgraded to Hold at Baader Helvea
    Concentric Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Prysmian Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman
    Hays Downgraded to Hold at HSBC
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  11. JamesIG
    Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling. Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil. Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below. Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency consolidating at the support, however no signs or reasons for a bounce as presence. Shares in Tesco and Sainsburys slide on loss of market share.  Asian Overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong indices led Asian markets lower overnight, with a sharp drop in the Shenzhen composite and Hang Seng providing the stand out underperformers amid largely flat trade in Japan and Australia. Rising oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with the US putting pressure on other countries to end the purchase of Iranian crude. In particular, this rise in crude prices helped shift the Australian ASX 200 out of the red, with the energy sector rising 1.3%.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session looks likely to focus on the Bank of England once again, coming off the back of last week’s rate decision. An appearance from Carney accompanies the latest BoE financial stability report. The US session will look towards core durable goods orders for their lead, with the latest trade balance data also taking on an important role given recent disagreements over trade. The crude market is also back in focus, with the latest US inventories due out later in the day. NZD traders should also be aware of the latest RBNZ rate decision tonight.
    When it comes to the Trump trade war tariffs JPMorgan economist David Hensley has stated that they "remain of the view that a large scale "trade war" remains a low probability though the odds of it happening appear to have increased". US Futures and Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning while the dollar and US treasury yields trade firmer. The trade war rhetoric generally continues, although US President Donald Trump looks to have softened his stance slightly saying that he may look to a less confrontational approach with China.
    South Africa: Precious and base metals trade mostly lower this morning while the rand is slightly softer against the majors. Oil prices have gained post the OPEC decision to raise output as well as supply disruptions in Canada. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for the local listing thereof. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (May): expected to rise 0.2% from -1.7% MoM, while excluding transportation orders forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3pm – US pending home sales (May): forecast to rise 0.1% from -1.3% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses

    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 22 June): stockpiles expected to fall by 5.1 million barrels after falling 5.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Inmarsat drops over 12% as Eutelsat, the company who were poised for a take over bid, back out just hours after their initial interest as reported in the IG Community EMEA morning briefing yesterday. 
    Whitbread reported a 3.2% rise in Q1 sales, thanks to new hotel capacity and additional Costa stores. However, sales were down 1.3% in the UK on a like-for-like basis. Progress continues on the Costa de-merger, with progress on core infrastructure and efficiency work.  
    Ultra Electronics downgraded its first-half profit guidance due to cost overruns at its US defence unit. Expectations for full-year operating profit has been cut by £4-6 million. 
    Bunzl said that it expected revenue for the first half to be 11% higher at constant exchange rates, while spending on acquisitions so far this year has been £105 million. 
    Global Credit Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale ratings of A-(ZA) and A1-(ZA) to Transaction Capital Limited (SA) in the long term and short term respectively, with the outlook accorded as Stable.
    Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
    Adecco upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Sainsbury upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    Carnival Plc upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Petrofac upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    BMW downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Gima TT downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Rubis downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    ICG Enterprise Trust downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Featured video
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. JamesIG
    Asian shares fall as the Trump 'tit-for-tat-tariff' goes ahead. China responds. Ex-Japan Asia down 0.5%, Nikkei down 0.7%. China and Hong Kong markets on holiday. Dollar eased from it's 3 week high, whilst euro remains subdued. The World Cup has kicked off with a record 32 teams taking part. Pared with great weather so far this month, and a strong forecast going forward, pubs have the potential to thrive. OPEC members in Vienna are to meet this week to decide on whether or not to end the oil production freeze. Members are split so a decision either way is likely to increase volatility and present a potential trade opportunity. BoE to set interest rates on Thursday. The banks MPC to meet earlier this week. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded lower once again overnight, as fears over a trade war between the US and China continue to set the tone. Friday’s confirmation that we will see tariffs imposed of $50 billion worth of Chinese goods prompted the Chinese to set out a similar package in return imposing tariffs on 659 American products such as cars, soybeans and seafood. With both the Chinese and Hong Kong indices closed for a bank holiday, the focus thus turned to Japan, which fell sharply overnight despite a rise in imports and exports.
    UK, US and Europe: Crude prices will be one of the main markets to watch for the week, with prices tumbling ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting. With the Chinese also indicating that their tariffs would include US crude, this further enhanced Friday’s selloff. A quiet day on the calendar front throughout Europe and the US sees markets retain focus on trade considerations. Central banks are likely to be the theme though, with appearances from Fed members Duke, Dudley, Bostic and Williams, coming alongside a Bundesbank monthly report and speech from Mario Draghi.
    South Africa: The local bourse looks set to open up lower this morning as global markets find short term pressure on the back of escalating trade war tensions. Commodity prices are trading lower with gold testing the $1280/oz level,  platinum the $885/oz and brent crude the $73/barrel mark. Base metals copper, zinc and aluminium all trade lower on the day. The rand is slightly firmer although still trading around its worst levels of the year. Conditions look particularly unfavourable for diversified resource counters today, further evidenced by BHP Billiton trading 2.4% lower in Australia. 
    Stock look ahead: Ashtead and Flybe are the ones to watch tomorrow as they release full year figures, whilst FedEx and Oracle in the US will release quarterly figures. Annual results for Severfield and Berkley will also be released on Wednesday and Micron Technology in the US publishes their quarterlies. Dixon Carphone will follow with annuals on Thursday. Quarterlies are expected from the UK's Carnival and the American Kroger on Thursday as well. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: How to trade a stock market crash
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Virgin Money has agreed an all-share takeover by CYBG, worth around £1.7 billion. CYBG will offer 1.2125 new shares for each Virgin Money share.  DS Smith reported a 17% rise in revenues for the year in constant currency terms, to £5.7 billion, while pre-tax profit was 8% higher at £292 million. The firm said it had seen good momentum so far in its new year.  PPC Ltd (SA) FY18 results showed headline earnings per share to have increased by 114c. Flybe expected to reveal widening losses tomorrow after a tough year and the 'beast from the east' remaining responsible for grounding nearly 1000 flights in the three months leading into March 31st. Other airlines worth watching. AB Foods upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Repsol upgraded to outperform at BBVA
    Cobham upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Enav upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    Pernod Ricard downgraded to underperform at RBC
    Robit downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. JamesIG
    Asia shares inch up with yuan ahead f Sino - US talks.  UK minsters release their first ‘no deal’ Brexit documents on Thursday in an effort to prepare for a “worst possible” outcome. Persimmon results are expected tomorrow, with many in the sector looking to the release as a barometer for the wider housing sector and how a rising inflation rate will affect the market. Iran has stressed to OPEC over the weekend that no other member country should take up the slack for reduced oil exports in the face of Trump imposed US sanctions. Oil prices slip on concerns over slowing economic growth Asian overnight: A mixed start to the week for Asian markets has seen the Chinese and Hong Kong markets outperform, while Japanese indices were the big underperformer of the session, remaining in the red into the close. Markets are continuing their short term rebound with US Index Futures and the wider Asian markets trading firmer this morning. Optimism that meetings scheduled in late August and November, between China and US officials, will yield some resolve to the current trade war debacle is providing some of the risk on sentiment. A quiet calendar meant that much of the focus will be on the US-China trade talks, which kick off on Wednesday.
    UK, US and Europe: A quiet day on the data front sees a market focus on this morning's Bundesbank monthly report, alongside appearances from the Fed’s Bostic and Bundesbank’s Weidmann. As the corporate earnings draw to a close, there will also be less of a focus on earnings reports as a key driver of price action. Thus look out for any updates on talks between the US and China, alongside any updates on the Turkish story.
    South Africa:  The US dollar has softened somewhat to help lift precious metal prices off their worst levels of the year. The rand has in turn managed to claw back some short term strength against the greenback and the majors. Tencent Holdings has rebounded 3.1% in Asia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.3% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified mining counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    NMC Health saw a 19% rise in first-half profit, with the firm increasing revenues from Middle East hospitals. Net profit for the first six months of the year rose to $116.7m, while revenue increased to $932.0m (+20%). Patients rose by 20% in the healthcare division, with bed occupancy rates rising to 69.9%. AngloGold Ashanti Interim results showed adjusted headline earnings of $85m, or 21c (US) per share versus a loss of $93m, or 23 US Dollar cents per share in the first half of 2017. Increases in adjusted headline earnings were due mainly to the improved operating performance and the higher gold price. " Sasol FY18 results  showed headline earnings per share to have declined by 23%. CVS Group upgraded to outperform at RBC
    KAZ Minerals upgraded to hold at Liberum
    RBS upgraded to buy at Citi
    United Internet upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Boozt downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Asia share markets mixed, China up on stimulus hopes GBPUSD hits a one year low as Brexit fears continue. Sterling’s slump guided the FTSE on a stellar rally. USD/TRY poised for continued big volatility swings over US/Turkey meeting. Oil price steady after sliding 3% yesterday. Asian overnight: Asian stocks were largely higher, with Japanese indices providing the one outlier amid a wider rally led by rampant upside for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. One major drag has been energy stocks, coming off the back of a 3% fall in crude prices yesterday. The New Zealand dollar fell sharply, after the RBNZ governor set out a timetable which saw rate remain at rock-bottom levels into 2020. Elsewhere, Chinese CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, with CPI in particular rising from 1.9% to 2.1%.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the data remains relatively thin on the ground, with US PPIP and unemployment claims providing the only highlights. Earnings-wise, keep an eye out for figures from the likes of Macy's, Viacom, and News Corp.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US PPI (July): Forecast to fall from 3.4% to 3.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses, US indices
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Legal & General saw a fall in pre-tax profits (-19%) for the first half of the year, with market volatility impacted upon investment performance. This led to an 81% fall in investment (and other variances), from £175m to £33m. £90m of that H1 loss came from the firm’s capital traded assets portfolio. As a result, earnings per share fell 8% to 13p from 14.19p, with interim dividends for the group rising 7% to 4.60p per share (from 4.30p). Cineworld Group saw H1 profit almost trebled after a successful takeover of US group Regal Entertainment helped build on the success back at home in the UK and Ireland. The firm saw pro-forma revenues rise 2.5% in the UK and Ireland despite the heatwave and World Cup, while the US (which now accounts for 70% of Group sales) rose by 14.3%. Randgold Resources saw Q2 pre-tax profits halve from $150.16 million to $74.34 million, while earnings per share fell to $0.55, from $0.89 last year. Total revenues also suffered, falling to $283.66 million, from $336.79 million last year. Finally, sales of gold also decreased for the quarter, falling to $411.51 million from $422.14 million last year.  BBA Aviation upgraded to buy at Liberum
    Capita upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT 1.80 Pounds
    Deutsche Post upgraded to buy at HSBC
    UDG upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Ahold Delhaize cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Grammer downgraded to hold at Quirin Privatbank AG
    L’Oreal downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    Tecan downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. JamesIG
    Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below. Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low. Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs.  Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day. Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as the market fear that has been dictating the state of play globally returned once more. Japanese markets also traded lower, despite a rise in the manufacturing PMI survey overnight, with the May figure also revised higher. Oil is going to be the talk of the town today, with the OPEC meeting reaching its conclusion. The question is whether we see a production rise by above or below 1M bpd. This is a rough the threshold that differentiates a result that is seen as a victory for Iran (below 1M), or Saudi Arabia (above 1M).

    UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme is going to stick around throughout the morning today, with a whole host of eurozone PMI figures released from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone. The big event of the day is certainly going to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where volatility across the energy space looks all but guaranteed. In the US session, look out for the Canadian CPI figures, alongside manufacturing and services PMI readings out of the US.
    South Africa: The dollar has softened overnight to give some relief to the rand and emerging market currencies. BHP Billiton is trading 0.7% lower in Australia suggesting a weaker open for the local listing and perhaps diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.2% lower in Asia, suggestive of a flat to softer start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Playtech has received approval from the Italian regulator to buy the rest of the shares of Snaitech not currently owned by the firm.  Allianz Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
    Telenor Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Zurich Ins. Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    Ceconomy Downgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
    Equinor Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank
    Heidelberger Druck Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
     
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  16. JamesIG
    We have a great new feature which is available on desktop charts: you can now trade faster by choosing to place a working order directly from the charts, rather than needing to fill out the deal ticket, and take full advantage of our drag and drop stop/limit functions. This new feature should reduce the effort and number of steps required to place an order, remove the need to type, and also offer a clear visual preview of your order before placing. 
    To place your working order straight from the charts...
    Hover your cursor on your desired level (taking advantage of the cross hair to find support and resistance). Right-click on the chart at the desired level. Select “Dealing” and confirm a Buy or Sell order (NB: to speed up the process the order size would auto fill with the last used size by default. In the video below, because no previous trades have been made on this account, a size is entered manually). You can drag up and down your Stop and limit levels (defined as absolute levels) and see your risk reward ratio. Click on the “Place Order” button to confirm. working orders click and drag.webm
  17. JamesIG
    I just wanted to update all Community members to let them know that we have recently reduced the minimum bet sizes on some key indices, commodities, and FX markets. This has been done for both UK spread betting accounts and European CFD accounts. 
    What are the minimum bet sizes for indices, commodities and FX on IG?
    Correct as of 6th September 2018 but subject to change

     
    Continued feedback
    A key aim of Community is to keep a two way dialogue open between our client base and those on our trading services support team, core dealing and developer teams. The decision to reduce minimum bet sizes across these markets has in part been due to feedback received from a number of our clients and those on Community. A big thank you to those who have shared their thoughts on this over the last few weeks. 
    Please feel free to continue to add feedback and suggestions on Community at any point. If you have any feedback on this specific change please feel free to add it below. 
    All the best
    IG Community moderator team
  18. JamesIG
    Fear of an increase in protectionism from the United States causes Asian equity markets to dip. Profit warnings rise 29% quarter on quarter to 58 FTSE listed companies. Retail sector leads the way, and its expected the earnings shall continue due to uncertainty in the future. Brexit secretary Raab says that the ‘no deal’ option is still on the table. GBP opened marginally down, but came back and has now gained from the Friday close. G20 central bank leaders have warned that global economic growth risks have increased on the back of geopolitical tensions and trade war fears. Oil falls on the back of concerns on reduced fuel demand and a knock on to manufacturing.  Thursdays ECB meeting is likely to be the primary event in the spotlight this week, however even then it’s likely to be a low key release. Current data suggests that things are performing as expected, so at best we’re likely to see Draghi express his satisfaction at his staffs predictions.  
    Asian overnight: Market jitters have continued into this week, with a strong selloff in the Nikkei 225 highlighting the strengthening Yen coming thanks to its role as a haven. The session was largely mixed, with gains in China and Hong Kong offsetting some of the losses from the Japanese and Australian regions. The weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central governors saw continued worries over the impact of current trade tensions on the global growth picture. 
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet start to the week on the economic calendar sees eyes turn to eurozone concerns, with the Bundesbank monthly report and consumer confidence from the eurozone. The US markets will be looking towards US existing home sales figure, following on last week’s disappointing building permits and housing starts figures. The earnings season ramps up, with today’s earnings from Alphabet representing the first heavy hitter to keep an eye out for.
    South Africa: Global markets are trading mixed this morning, with US futures marginally lower, Australia and Japanese Indices trading firmly lower, while China and Hong Kong indices trade positive on the day. The Jse Top 40 Index is expected to trade marginally lower on open as it tempers strong gains from the end of last week. Miners in Australia are trading lower this morning with BHP Billiton down 1.4%, expectant of a similar start for locally listed resource counters today. Tencent Holdings is down 1.75% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similarly weak start for major holding company Naspers, which has a 20% weighting on the Top 40 Index. Today's economic calendar is relatively empty although markets will find guidance from earnings reports. South African banks are expected to release earnings updates in the week. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (June): forecast to rise to 0.4 from -0.15. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July, flash): forecast to fall to -2.3 from -0.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US existing home sales (June): expected to rise 1.5% MoM from -0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are looking to join forces to provide a shared streaming service with all content in one place. This comes as Ofcom recently reported a decline in people watching traditional broadcasts, as well as a decline in spending on original content, over on demand paid services such as Netflix. Ryanair said that net profit fell to €319 million for Q1, although revenue was up 9% to €2.08 billion. Net margins dropped 6 percentage points to 15%. Lower fares, the lack of an Easter half, and higher oil and pilot costs all hit performance. Full-year guidance was left unchanged. BHP Billiton said that it intended to defend a claim against the group in Australia relating to the Samarco dam failure.  Hammerson has exchanged contracts for the sale of two retail parks for a total consideration of £164 million. The total sale price is at a 10% discount to the 2017 book value.  Anglo American Platinum (SA) Interim results showed headline earnings per share of 1282c, a significant increase from the 285c achieved in the comparable interim period last year. Harmony Gold (SA) has announced that it has exceeded annual FY18 production. Featured Video from IGTV
      Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  19. JamesIG
    Stocks pull back in the Asian overnight market after a tepid close of Wall Street last night. Bellwether metals copper and zinc, along with other industrial metals, continue their rally as investors and traders focus on increasing demand rather than US-Sino relations. Rio Tinto announced a $3.2bn share buyback scheme, and whilst the Anglo-Australian miner saw 3.2% gain the ASX didn’t follow suit and ended down slightly. Potential swings on the UK Rio listing on the open. In EM currencies, the SA Rand rallied on Wednesday after consumer price growth slowed according to inflation data. This comes ahead of the rate decision today - one to keep an eye on amid potential volatility. A solid reading on New Zealand’s economic growth GDP figure pushed the NZ dollar higher. US dollar index was down around 0.1%, with the euro trading at around 1.168 USD whilst 10 year treasuries are up around 10 basis points in the last week. US crude inventories saw a three and a half year low yesterday whilst gasoline saw a pullback. Both energies were up on the news and have seen consolidation since. This could be one to watch today for any profit taking or movement on the back of trade talk news. The president of the Financial Action Task Force, the global anti money laundering body, has said he’s optimistic about agreeing a set of standards for AML procedures applied to crypto and virtual currencies. Retail Sales in the UK, US initial jobless claims, and the EU press conference are the macro data areas to look out for today.
    Asian overnight: A much less decisive and convincing session overnight has seen Asian markets largely exhibiting moderate gains in a day that has seen them oscillate around the market open level. The one loser on the session came from Australia, with the ASX 200 falling after a report from the RBA said that in an all-out trade war, the AUD could significantly strengthen. The NZD was one of the strongest currencies of the session, following an improved GDP number of 1% for Q2.
    UK, US and Europe: Theresa May stated yesterday that she will not accept Brexit offers that treat Northern Ireland as a separate customs territory, after the EU proposed to keep the region within its customs union and single market. Further to the Financial Action Task Force statement on cryptocurrencies discussed above, the UK's Treasury Committee has announced that the country could soon implement regulatory reforms for Cryptocurrencies, to address poor security, extreme volatility and excessive anonymity. The proposed aim is to make the UK a legitimate home for crypto trading and become a major trading centre.
    Looking ahead, the UK is back in focus with the release of the latest retail sales number. Volatility over Brexit has been influencing the pound and thus traders should also watch out for any further comments from the UK or EU. In the afternoon, keep an eye out for the US Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales. Meanwhile, the eurozone comes back into play, with consumer confidence and an appearance from Bundesbank President Weidmann later in the day.
    South Africa: Global markets are giving ambiguous signals today for the JSE as US Index futures and Asian markets show a mix off marginal gains and losses this morning. There is little in the way of new news to guide markets today although South African traders and speculators will keep a watchful eye on the Reserve banks monetary policy meeting this afternoon.
    Lending rates are expected to remain unchanged, although there remains a possibility of a marginal rate hike. The rand remains firm leading into the news event. Tencent Holdings is up 0.25% in Asia suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.14% higher in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK retail sales (August): sales to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, from 0.7% and 3.5% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 September), Philadelphia Fed index: claims to rise to 208K from 204K, while the Philly Fed index rises to 15 from 11.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September): confidence index to rise to -0.7 from -1.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US existing home sales (August): forecast to rise 0.6% MoM from a -0.7% fall. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Rio Tinto has announced details of its $3.2 billion share buyback, combining an off-market tender of $1.9 billion and additional on-market purchases.  Stobart said that passenger numbers at its London Southend airport rose 37% for the first half.   Kier Group reported a 9% rise in underlying pre-tax profit for the full year, to £137 million.   Diageo said that the new financial year had begun well and that performance remained in line with expectations. Heightened exchange rate volatility is expected to hit operating profit for the year by around £45 million.   Aveva upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    Weir upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Bayer upgraded to buy at Citi
    Proximus upgraded to buy at Citi
    Essity downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Nokian Renkaat downgraded to sell at Carnegie
    Telenet downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Telefonica Deutschland downgraded to sell at Bankhaus Lampe
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  20. JamesIG
    Asian market bounced a little on Wednesday morning on continued trade war talks. In the Chinese markets regulators sought to calm the markets. Those with large Chinese export books such as Boeing and machinery manufacturers Caterpillar were hit the hardest with Trump's threat of further tariffs. These may be ones to watch going forward as the trade war unfolds. The ‘big four’ accounting scandal continues with internal report from a Lloyd’s bank employee detailing allegations of misconduct by senior bank staff and KPMG auditors. A drop in US crude inventories and the loss of storage capacity in Libya provided some recovery to oil prices. Bitcoin down around 2am BST after a South Korean exchange was hacked, however we have broadly seen consolidation around these levels for the last 10 daily candles. Think tanks in the UK call on legalisation of cannabis for medical use after high profile case of a young boy who was hospitalised after his cannabis oil, used to aid severe epilepsy, was confiscated. You can see the best marijuana stocks to watch on IG.com Asian Overnight: A largely bullish session overnight saw gains for a number of markets, despite the continued concern over a potential trade war between the US and China. The reasons for this mornings gains are as yet unclear, although there is some suggestion of easing trade war tensions as being the catalyst (we are however not yet convinced of this). This breather in the recent global stock market decline has provided welcome respite, yet issues remain. Oil prices also moved higher, with the OPEC meeting looking increasingly likely to provide volatility, with Iran expected to refuse any production increase, as proposed by Saudi Arabia. 

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a roundtable discussion including governors from the RBA, BoE, BoJ, and Fed will be a significant event which will certainly be watched closely for signs of any clues as to future monetary policy changes. Also keep an eye out for the latest existing home sales and crude inventory figures.
    South Africa: Global markets are finding some short term reprieve as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning.  The rand has clawed back some strength after the severe weakening we saw yesterday, which could help a partial rebound in local financial counters this morning. BHP Billiton has added 0.75% in Australia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for local retailers. Tencent Holdings has added 1.3% on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar gains for locally listed Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    2.30pm – ECB Central Bank Forum, Portugal: the ECB will host central bankers from around the globe, with speeches from RBA governor Lowe, ECB president Draghi, BoJ governor Kuroda and Fed chair Powell. Markets to watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, US Dollar Index
    3pm – US existing home sales (May): forecast to rise 1.5% MoM from a 2.5% drop. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 June): expected to rise by 690,000 barrels from a 4.14 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: BCC predicts worst UK growth since 2009
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Sports Direct has sold its interest in US retailer Finish Line.  Sirius Minerals has signed an agreement to sell its fertiliser product to African firm Intercontinental Trade DMCC Dubai. The agreement will last for seven years.  Berkeley Group has raised profit guidance for the two years to 30 April 2019, by £75 million to £1.575 billion. Pre-tax profit for its full-year was up 15.1% to £934.9 million, Revenue was £2.7 billion from £2.72 billion a year earlier.  Tesla has seen volatility the first half of the week as Musk accuses employees of hacks and code changes to production line software under false usernames and unauthorised data exports to third parties. Disney and 21st Century Fox pledge increases to sky and sky news funding, with the later being divested to Disney, to help push through the Fox/Sky merger. Footasylum down over 50% after profit warnings and slashed 2019 growth forecast by Analysts. Full year results show profit before tax down to £1.9m from £8.1m last year due to cost on the back of the companies inclusion in the AIM market. Grindrod (SA) Shareholders are advised that total earnings per share for the six months ending 30 June 2018 is
    expected to be positive (an increase of more than 100%). The prior year comparative period, being
    the six months that ended 30 June 2017, reflected a loss per share of 11.5 cents Sandvik Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    SSE Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC
    Ringmetall Downgraded to Hold at Montega
    SKF Downgraded to Sell at Goldman
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  21. JamesIG
    Despite Tuesday being referred to as the worst day in the Presidency of Donald Trump, the S&P touched an intraday record high and equaled its longest bull run of 3452 days, with the record expected to tumble today, baring a disaster. Dollar steady overnight following yesterday’s dip, with forex markets pretty calm across the board, although we did see a weakening in AUD, which was down 0.2%. Brent rose 0.3%, whilst US crude was up 0.5% following industry group data that signaled a larger than expected decline in US stockpiles. Gold flat 1195.56 an ounce, whilst nickel and aluminum pushed base metals up. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded its largest July surplus for 18 years pointing to a robust deficit reduction on the back of low unemployment and good economic growth. Morgan Stanley have removed their ratings and equity coverage of Tesla yesterday hinting that they’ve possibly joined Goldman Sachs as an advisor on the deal to take the company private. The UK’s HMRC have released figures showing the YoY change for July's residential property transactions are down 3.2% adding fuel to fear of a stagnant UK property market. Asian overnight: Japanese markets were the big outperformer overnight, as a bearish session across Chinese and Australian markets pointed towards growing fears over the outcome of today’s trade talks between the US and Chinese. The dollar remains under pressure following comments from Donald Trump who was highly critical of Jerome Powell’s handling of monetary policy. Yesterday’s record highs for the S&P 500 didn’t do enough to boost sentiment in Asia, and this apprehensive theme looks likely to continue in Europe ahead of a bearish open. 
    UK, US and Europe: We finally see a ramp up in economic releases, if only from the US session given the absence of any European figures. Keep an eye out for the Canadian retail sales and US existing home sales coming into play in the afternoon. Also look out for the latest crude inventories figure, with energy prices in focus amid the recent Iran and Venezuela focused volatility. Finally, the latest FOMC minutes are released at the end of the day, bringing dollar volatility back into play. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the last policy meeting will see investors looking for further clues relating to the pace of monetary tightening in the US.
    South Africa: This morning will see local inflation data released at 10am to help guide the South African Reserve Banks monetary policy program. This afternoon will see US crude inventory data out which could be  a possible catalyst for oil prices. Tencent Holdings is up 2% in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is down another 1.2% in Australia suggestive of a negative start for the local listing this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    3pm – US existing home sales (July): forecast to rise 0.4% MoM from a 0.6% drop a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 17 August): expected to see stockpiles fall by 520,000 barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    7pm – FOMC minutes: no change at the latest meeting means these minutes may not provide too much in the way of new information, but given the rally in the dollar over the past month the minutes will need to strike a hawkish tone to avoid provoking a possible selloff in the greenback. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Grafton Group said that pre-tax profit was 18% higher for the first half, to £57.6 million, while revenue was 9% higher at £1.45 billion.  Diploma said that it acquired FS Cables for £18 million.  Blue Label Telecoms Ltd FY18 results showed core headline earnings per share to have increased by 4% from the previous year. Bid Corporation FY18 results  showed headline earnings from continuing operations to have increased by 9.1% from the previous year. Danske Bank raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Lancashire upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Provident upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Rio Tinto upgraded to hold at Liberum
    DNB downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Implenia downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    MorphoSys downgraded to hold at Commerzbank
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  22. JamesIG
    Asian overnight: Sharp declines overnight are pushing the bulls out the way and the overnight session looks to be paving the way for a bearish start to the week in Europe, with circa 2% losses across Japanese and Chinese markets. The Hang Seng market was closed for a bank holiday while the Australian ASX 200 managed to limit the losses. Trade wars are back on the agenda as a key concern for markets, with a European Commission statement against car tariffs making little difference to sentiment for now. Data wise, we saw the Japanese Tankan manufacturing survey fall from 24 to 21, while the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI number moved slightly lower, to 51.0 (from 51.1).

    UK, US and Europe: The manufacturing focus remains today, with a host of final manufacturing PMI readings from a host of eurozone countries leading into the initial UK figure for June. With Canadian markets on holiday, the focus is on the US, where once again it is the manufacturing surveys which take precedence.
    South Africa: After strong gains on Friday, the local bourse looks set to open up weaker today after the Asian markets poor performance on Monday. Friday's gains can in part be attributed to quarter end window dressing, although the underlying market pressures of trade war concerns and a flight from emerging markets remain. A strengthening dollar is seeing precious metals, the rand, and oil trading lower this morning. BHP Billiton is trading 0.9% lower in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for local resource counters. The weaker rand is expected to weigh on local banking and retail counters on open. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 53.5 from 54.4. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – eurozone unemployment rate (May): forecast to fall to 8.4% from 8.5%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 58.3 from 58.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Tesco has announced a strategic buying partnership with Carrefour, that will involve joint purchasing of own brand products and goods. 
    Meggitt upgraded annual revenue guidance, thanks to a stronger than forecast performance in Q2. Organic revenue growth for the year through December is expected to be 4-6% from 2-4%. 
    Aeroports de Paris raised to overweight at JPMorgan
    Chargeurs upgraded to buy at AlphaValue
    Cloetta upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Novo Nordisk upgraded to outperform at Bernstein
    Investec upgrade Capitec Holdings (SA) to buy with a target price of 103400c
    Investec upgrade Impala Platinum (SA) to buy with a target price of 2500c
    Eurofins Scientific cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Infineon downgraded to underweight at Barclays
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  23. JamesIG
    GBP rallies on Brexit talks and a hope for a deal before the year is out. Whilst there seems to be a break in tariff hostilities, it seen by most as only temporary. A softer yen helped support Japan's Nikkei. Asian overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were the two weak spots in a mixed overnight session, with strong gains for Japanese and Australian markets. The expected imposition of a whole raft of new US tariffs on Chinese goods has brought about further pressure on businesses within the region, with Trump seeking to target the vast majority of Chinese imports into the US. Much of the sentiment has been bearish of late, as the gains in Japan and Australia are largely a break from the norm, as talk of fresh US tax reforms help improve the short-term outlook.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK remains in focus following a day of data yesterday. This morning sees the UK jobs report released, with markets keeping a particularly close eye on the average earnings figure given the impact on inflation expectations. While we see precious few notable releases from the US today, the eurozone also comes into focus alongside the UK, with German ZEW economic sentiment, and eurozone employment change worth watching out for.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK employment data: claimant count to fall by 6200 in August, from a rise of 6200 a month earlier. Unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% for July from 4%, while July average earnings to rise 2.5%, from a June rise of 2.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – German ZEW index (September): index to rise to -10.4 from -13.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Ashtead said that it expected full-year results to be ahead of forecasts, as underlying earnings for the quarter to 31 July rose 20% to £503.7 million. A weaker pound has driven this improved performance.  Anglo American reported a fall in De Beers diamond sales, which fell to $505 million in the seventh cycle of 2018 compared to $533 million for the sixth cycle of 2017.  Koenig & Bauer Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Kion Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Ubisoft Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    J D Wetherspoon Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
    Galp Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Heineken Downgraded to Sell at Berenberg
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  24. JamesIG
    The Trump house looks to impose 10% tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese goods. Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets drag down the wider overnight Asian session. The bidding war on Sky continues with Murdoch's Fox offering £14/share beating Comcasts previous £12.50. Copper and zinc slide to 1-year low, oil also sharply lower on trade war fears. Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, as Donald Trump has once again ramped up trade war fears, driving away any optimism built in recent days. With Trump starting the process that will ultimately lead to the imposition of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, there is reason to believe we are entering the next stage of the trade war between the two countries. Unsurprisingly we have seen losses across the board overnight, with the heaviest falls centred upon the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. US and European futures are trading lower this morning as well.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, central banks are in focus, with appearances from ECB and BoE governors Mario Draghi and Mark Carney. The big event of the day comes in the form of the Bank of Canada rate decision, where the committee is expected to push interest rates higher for the first time in 2018. Also keep an eye out for US PPI, and crude oil inventories data.
    South Africa: We are expecting a softer open on the local SA index as the trade war narrative see's escalation once again. We have seen some strength returning to the dollar and in turn mostly weaker commodity prices and a softer rand. Tencent is trading 2.3% lower in Asia this morning, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.3% lower in Australia, suggestive of an initial decline for local resource counters. A softer rand is expected to continue to weigh on financial counters as well as local retail counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US PPI (June): forecast to be 0.1% from 0.5% MoM, while core PPI falls to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to remain at 1.25%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 6 July): stockpiles expected to fall by 230,000 barrels from a 1.5 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Sky has agreed new terms for its takeover by 21st Century Fox, with the US firm offering £14 per share, up from the previous £10.75 per share.  
    Burberry reported a 3% rise in like-for-like sales for Q1, and there was no change to full year guidance. 
    Indivior said that guidance for its financial year was ‘no longer valid’, as a rival generic product in the US has a major impact on operations. The revenue impact could be $25 million for 2018. 
    Barratt Developments expects record profit for the year, bolstered by Help to Buy. Pre-tax profits are expected to be £835 million, from £765.1 million a year ago. The firm completed 17,579 homes, compared to 17,395 last year, while the number of plots sold was up 4%. 
    Coca-Cola HBC upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Drax upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
    LPKF upgraded to buy at HSBC
    HSBC upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    UBS upgrade Barclays Africa from sell to neutral with a target price of 19700c
    BHP downgraded to hold at Renaissance Capital
    CYBG downgraded to underperform at KBW
    Trelleborg downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Virgin Money downgraded to market perform at KBW
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  25. JamesIG
    A trading forum and help and support network for IG clients
    Over the last few months we have been working on a new layout for your Community, as well as adding greater functionality and new content areas. Today is the 'go live' date and we hope you like what you see. Have a browse, and if you have any feedback or suggestions please add a comment below. Maybe take this opportunity to make your first Community post if you haven't already?
    This purpose of this forum is for like-minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities, ask questions, and provide help and support to others.
    Learn strategies and trade ideas from experienced traders Give tips to the Community and share your market knowledge Perfect your trading by discussing ideas with others Get the most out of IG and ask the Community anything regarding trading or IG Anyone can browse the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to post or interact on Community. If you're new to Community and looking for a first step maybe check out the forum, or have a once over of our Community tutorials. We're also curious for any feedback you may have, so add a comment below to have your voice heard. We're always looking to improve our offering based on what traders want - so let us know!

    We migrated the old forum (and added some new features)
    We have migrated over all the posts, likes, 'kudos' and private messages from the previous version of the forum, as well as integrated the Community login with the wider IG eco system so you can enjoy a seamless digital experience between the platform and forum. You should be able to see all your previously posted content under the same Community username as you currently use. 
    New content areas...
    Blogs: We have three blogs which we will be updated periodically.  Market News - Daily morning briefings, index dividend adjustments, and one off articles IG Product Updates - A place to let you know about all the things we roll out IG Community Blog - Competitions, 'Ask the Expert' series, and Community updates Calendar: A way for discussion to be relevant and anchored to a specific date / time / macro event Our Picks: A hand picked showcase of the best IG Community has to offer. If individual client forum posts or comments get a significant number of upvotes then they may also be featured More to be rolled out shortly! ...and a few new features.
    Activity streams: If you're logged in you'll notice you can easily browse things such as 'unread' or 'followed' content. You can save individual search streams so they're available for the next time you log in  Advanced search: An updated and intuitive search functionality Leaderboard: The Leaderboard keeps track of the hottest content and best users each day based on reputation received. You'll increase your chances of getting on here if you post more, receive more likes, and help others Community Profile: Your space in Community. Check yours out by clicking on your username in the top right hand corner
    Access IG Community - anytime, anywhere
    IG Community will be up 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The easiest way to access IG Community is using the top right hand 'Help' drop down in the dealing platform, but you can also access via our mobile apps (look under the help and support section - try it now), or by simply going to community.ig.com

    This initial rollout is only phase one of 'the big Community plan', and we'd love to hear your feedback. What do you like? What would you change if you had the chance? What new areas would you like to see? Let us know using the comments section below. 
    Happy chatting
    IG Community Moderator Team
     
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