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JamesIG

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Blog Entries posted by JamesIG

  1. JamesIG
    Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling. Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil. Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below. Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency consolidating at the support, however no signs or reasons for a bounce as presence. Shares in Tesco and Sainsburys slide on loss of market share.  Asian Overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong indices led Asian markets lower overnight, with a sharp drop in the Shenzhen composite and Hang Seng providing the stand out underperformers amid largely flat trade in Japan and Australia. Rising oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with the US putting pressure on other countries to end the purchase of Iranian crude. In particular, this rise in crude prices helped shift the Australian ASX 200 out of the red, with the energy sector rising 1.3%.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session looks likely to focus on the Bank of England once again, coming off the back of last week’s rate decision. An appearance from Carney accompanies the latest BoE financial stability report. The US session will look towards core durable goods orders for their lead, with the latest trade balance data also taking on an important role given recent disagreements over trade. The crude market is also back in focus, with the latest US inventories due out later in the day. NZD traders should also be aware of the latest RBNZ rate decision tonight.
    When it comes to the Trump trade war tariffs JPMorgan economist David Hensley has stated that they "remain of the view that a large scale "trade war" remains a low probability though the odds of it happening appear to have increased". US Futures and Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning while the dollar and US treasury yields trade firmer. The trade war rhetoric generally continues, although US President Donald Trump looks to have softened his stance slightly saying that he may look to a less confrontational approach with China.
    South Africa: Precious and base metals trade mostly lower this morning while the rand is slightly softer against the majors. Oil prices have gained post the OPEC decision to raise output as well as supply disruptions in Canada. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for the local listing thereof. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (May): expected to rise 0.2% from -1.7% MoM, while excluding transportation orders forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3pm – US pending home sales (May): forecast to rise 0.1% from -1.3% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses

    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 22 June): stockpiles expected to fall by 5.1 million barrels after falling 5.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Inmarsat drops over 12% as Eutelsat, the company who were poised for a take over bid, back out just hours after their initial interest as reported in the IG Community EMEA morning briefing yesterday. 
    Whitbread reported a 3.2% rise in Q1 sales, thanks to new hotel capacity and additional Costa stores. However, sales were down 1.3% in the UK on a like-for-like basis. Progress continues on the Costa de-merger, with progress on core infrastructure and efficiency work.  
    Ultra Electronics downgraded its first-half profit guidance due to cost overruns at its US defence unit. Expectations for full-year operating profit has been cut by £4-6 million. 
    Bunzl said that it expected revenue for the first half to be 11% higher at constant exchange rates, while spending on acquisitions so far this year has been £105 million. 
    Global Credit Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale ratings of A-(ZA) and A1-(ZA) to Transaction Capital Limited (SA) in the long term and short term respectively, with the outlook accorded as Stable.
    Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
    Adecco upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Sainsbury upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    Carnival Plc upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Petrofac upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    BMW downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Gima TT downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Rubis downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    ICG Enterprise Trust downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Featured video
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. JamesIG
    USDJPY falls on the back of an intensifying trade war dispute. ‘Fang’ stocks and the heavily tech centric Nasdaq slump on the same trade war fears. Turkish lira gains from yesterday gives further reason for overseas investment in Turkey to remain wary. USDTRY looking like it could have entered a period of consolidation after rising nearly 25% from the beginning of the year. Oil prices rise on the Libyan oil export uncertainty, however OPEC still the overarching dampener with plans to raise output.  Gold inching down on US rate hike expectation. Bitcoin at critical level of support previously hit in April and February 2018, and previously November 2017. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded largely in the red overnight, as marginal gains throughout Japanese indices provided the one standout performer of the session. This follows yesterday's significant market declines where US Indices fell in excess of 1% (Nasdaq more than 2%). Continued fears over the impending breakdown in trade between China and the US ensured that Chinese equities were the worst performer, with the Shenzhen composite trading over 1% lower. On the data front, the BoJ core CPI reading failed to rise as expected, with the data set showing underlying inflation remaining at 0.5%.
    UK, US and Europe: Another quiet day on the economic calendar sees the release of US consumer confidence this afternoon as the only major event of note. That is not to say that market volatility is going to be low, as evident by yesterday’s sharp selloff throughout European and US indices despite a near empty economic calendar.
    South Africa: While trade war talks still linger markets look to have stopped the hemorrhaging for now and the local bourse looks to have already priced in much of the overnight weakness. Commodity prices remain depressed and the dollar firm. The rand remains weak although off its worst levels finding directional catalysts from factor external rather than domestic at the moment. BHP Billiton is trading 1% lower in Australia suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 0.3% lower on the Hang Seng suggesting a flat to slightly lower start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    3pm – US consumer confidence (June): expected to hold at 128. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Inmarsat, the privately listed communications company, has confirmed its considering a bid from Eutelsat. This has helped push the stock, which previously saw prices of 1100p in 2015 and as low as 340p in April of this year, trade above 630p. Eutelsat has until 5pm on the 23rd July to confirm an intention or rule itself out for 6 months.
    Health conscious millennials have pushed Whittards of Chelsea back in the black yesterday to a net profit of just over a quarter of a million pounds, up from a net loss of £1.4m in 2016. The craze for herbal teas amongst the younger generation, for many at the cost of caffeine based drinks such as coffee, has been an important factor in the turn around.
    Petrofac said that it continued to trade in line with forecasts, with the year-to-date order book reaching $1.8 billion. 
    Carpetright said that it suffered an annual loss of £71 million for the year, while borrowing rose sharply due to restructuring costs. Debt rose from £10 million to £54 million. 
    Polymetal has started its new gold mine in Kazazkstan ahead of schedule. Mining activities had reached full design capacity, and ‘significant’ cash flow and net income contribution should start in Q4 this year. 
    ASML upgraded to add at AlphaValue
    Andritz upgraded to buy at Goldman
    Renault upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Royal Mail upgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Eutelsat downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Gazprom GDRs cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
    Featured video
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing the 25th of June 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    Special Dividends
    No special dividends expected this week. 

    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. JamesIG
    Global equity markets falter on trade war talk. Turkish lira gains on a presidential win for Recap Tayyip Erdogan. Oil sheds it's gains as OPEC agree on output hike. Saudi Arabia lifts the ban on female drivers which could generate up to $90bn for their economy according to Bloomberg Finance Britain sees its two year anniversary from the Brexit referendum vote. GBP down 11% in that time helping buoy the FTSE and companies who generate the majority of their revenue from overseas. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded in the red once again overnight, as trade wars fears continue to take their toll on global risk sentiment. With the US said to be preparing to restrict Chinese investment into US business, while warning they could place 20% tariffs on EU cars, there are no signs to say that the trade war is letting up any time soon. China has also announced plans to free up another $100bn in the banking system, perhaps another admission of a slowing economy. The weekend election in Turkey has seen the incumbent president win as expected, with sweeping changes being implemented that will now ensure he holds substantially more powers, and for an unlimited term. Nevertheless, the stability that this promises to bring over the near-term has helped boost the lira, which rose 2% overnight.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the German Ifo business climate figure represents the biggest data point on a day that is light of any particularly significant releases. As such, there is likely to be a continue focus on trade considerations with the US.
    South Africa: Commodity prices are under pressure, including oil which has offset Fridays gains which followed the OPEC announcement to increase production by 1m barrels per day (Saudi Arabia and Russia had previously suggested raising output by 1.5m barrels per day). The rand has managed to claw back some strength after trading around oversold territory for the last few weeks. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.5% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.4% higher in Australia, suggestive of a firmer start for local diversified resource counters.  
    Shares look ahead this week: Carnival in America will release second quarter earnings today, whilst Tuesday will see the UK listed Northgate release full year results and IHS Markit and the US Lennar will publish quarterlies. Costa Coffee owned Whitebread have a trading update on Wednesday which is worth looking out for, whilst America will yield General Mills and Bed, Bath and Beyond. Hunting and Tullow Oil have Thursday trading statements, whilst Walgreens Boots Alliance will report on Thursday. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9am – German IFO index (June): business climate index expected to fall to 101.7 from 102.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (May): forecast to fall to 0.1 from 0.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US new home sales (May): expected to rise 0.5% MoM from -1.5%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Stobart Group has said that it has issued a note convening an EGM next month relating to its boardroom dispute. It has recommended that investors vote against the resolution to change the chairman.  IWG has confirmed that it has received an approach from Terra Ferma.  Petards Group has won a contract renewal for provision of software licences and support services for Network Rail.  Accor upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    BinckBank upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Rexel upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Rolls-Royce upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Heidelberger Druck downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Suedzucker downgraded to sell at Goldman
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. JamesIG
    Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below. Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low. Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs.  Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day. Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as the market fear that has been dictating the state of play globally returned once more. Japanese markets also traded lower, despite a rise in the manufacturing PMI survey overnight, with the May figure also revised higher. Oil is going to be the talk of the town today, with the OPEC meeting reaching its conclusion. The question is whether we see a production rise by above or below 1M bpd. This is a rough the threshold that differentiates a result that is seen as a victory for Iran (below 1M), or Saudi Arabia (above 1M).

    UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme is going to stick around throughout the morning today, with a whole host of eurozone PMI figures released from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone. The big event of the day is certainly going to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where volatility across the energy space looks all but guaranteed. In the US session, look out for the Canadian CPI figures, alongside manufacturing and services PMI readings out of the US.
    South Africa: The dollar has softened overnight to give some relief to the rand and emerging market currencies. BHP Billiton is trading 0.7% lower in Australia suggesting a weaker open for the local listing and perhaps diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.2% lower in Asia, suggestive of a flat to softer start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Playtech has received approval from the Italian regulator to buy the rest of the shares of Snaitech not currently owned by the firm.  Allianz Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
    Telenor Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Zurich Ins. Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    Ceconomy Downgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
    Equinor Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank
    Heidelberger Druck Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
     
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. JamesIG
    Trade war continues with EU initiating retaliatory tariffs from tomorrow. 25% will be levied against products from whiskey to jeans and motorbikes. GBPUSD hits 7 month low on fears May will be ousted as PM over Brexit. FTSE index buoyed by a depreciated Sterling.  Disney ups the bid to eclipse Comcast’s $35 a share cash offer for Fox with a $71bn deal, about $38 a share. Trump crumbles to international pressure and signs an executive order stopping the separation of immigrant children from their families. Goldman Sachs looks to expand bitcoin involvement according to COO in a Bloomberg interview. Asian Overnight: Another mixed session in Asia saw Chinese stocks steady themselves after yesterday’s losses despite continued fears over a trade war with the US. Crude remains at the forefront of the market agenda, with weekly US crude inventories falling by the highest amount since January. Meanwhile, a weaker New Zealand GDP figure sent NZDUSD lower overnight.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the BoE rate decision is certainly the main event of the morning session, while the SNB monetary policy announcement will also grab some headlines. Look out for FTSE / Sterling correlation. The weaker the Queens pound, the higher the overseas earnings are for companies when they convert back into pounds. The BoE announcement is likely to cause some GBP volatility so make the appropriate risk management alterations to combat this. US Philly Fed manufacturing index, and unemployment claims round off the day in the US.
    South Africa: The US Dollar has strengthened to weigh on commodity prices, in particular that of precious metals. The rand has resumed weakness as a result and we expect financial counters to bear the brunt of initial weakness. BHP Billiton is trading 0.5% higher in Australia which combined with a softer rand could help local diversified resources find a bid this morning. Tencent Holdings is down 2.5% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change in rates expected, but watch for any changes in the voting pattern from the last vote which was 7/9 in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Market to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30pm – US Philadelphia Index (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 16 June): Philly Fed index expected to fall to 28 from 34.4, initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    9.30pm – Fed publishes bank stress test results: the US central bank will issue the results of these tests, so bank and other financial stocks will be in focus. Market to watch: US bank stocks
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: What is scalping?
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Dixons Carphone said that pre-tax profit for the full year was down 23.6%, to £382 million, while like-for-like revenue rose 4%. Slower growth in the UK and Ireland was blamed for the weaker performance.  Saga traded in line with forecasts in the four months to 31 May 2018. Saga-branded retail insurance policies were up 1% year-on-year.  Lloyd’s Banking Group announce hundreds of job cuts yesterday citing a change in customer behaviour. Tesla files lawsuit against Martin Tripp, the former employee who allegedly orchestrated a hack and data breach of Tesla operating software. Essity upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Nornickel GDRs upgraded to buy at Citi
    Peab upgraded to hold at DNB Markets
    Rio Tinto upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Euronext downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    Hypoport downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF
    Veolia downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Virgin Money cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. JamesIG
    Asian market bounced a little on Wednesday morning on continued trade war talks. In the Chinese markets regulators sought to calm the markets. Those with large Chinese export books such as Boeing and machinery manufacturers Caterpillar were hit the hardest with Trump's threat of further tariffs. These may be ones to watch going forward as the trade war unfolds. The ‘big four’ accounting scandal continues with internal report from a Lloyd’s bank employee detailing allegations of misconduct by senior bank staff and KPMG auditors. A drop in US crude inventories and the loss of storage capacity in Libya provided some recovery to oil prices. Bitcoin down around 2am BST after a South Korean exchange was hacked, however we have broadly seen consolidation around these levels for the last 10 daily candles. Think tanks in the UK call on legalisation of cannabis for medical use after high profile case of a young boy who was hospitalised after his cannabis oil, used to aid severe epilepsy, was confiscated. You can see the best marijuana stocks to watch on IG.com Asian Overnight: A largely bullish session overnight saw gains for a number of markets, despite the continued concern over a potential trade war between the US and China. The reasons for this mornings gains are as yet unclear, although there is some suggestion of easing trade war tensions as being the catalyst (we are however not yet convinced of this). This breather in the recent global stock market decline has provided welcome respite, yet issues remain. Oil prices also moved higher, with the OPEC meeting looking increasingly likely to provide volatility, with Iran expected to refuse any production increase, as proposed by Saudi Arabia. 

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a roundtable discussion including governors from the RBA, BoE, BoJ, and Fed will be a significant event which will certainly be watched closely for signs of any clues as to future monetary policy changes. Also keep an eye out for the latest existing home sales and crude inventory figures.
    South Africa: Global markets are finding some short term reprieve as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning.  The rand has clawed back some strength after the severe weakening we saw yesterday, which could help a partial rebound in local financial counters this morning. BHP Billiton has added 0.75% in Australia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for local retailers. Tencent Holdings has added 1.3% on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar gains for locally listed Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    2.30pm – ECB Central Bank Forum, Portugal: the ECB will host central bankers from around the globe, with speeches from RBA governor Lowe, ECB president Draghi, BoJ governor Kuroda and Fed chair Powell. Markets to watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, US Dollar Index
    3pm – US existing home sales (May): forecast to rise 1.5% MoM from a 2.5% drop. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 June): expected to rise by 690,000 barrels from a 4.14 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: BCC predicts worst UK growth since 2009
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Sports Direct has sold its interest in US retailer Finish Line.  Sirius Minerals has signed an agreement to sell its fertiliser product to African firm Intercontinental Trade DMCC Dubai. The agreement will last for seven years.  Berkeley Group has raised profit guidance for the two years to 30 April 2019, by £75 million to £1.575 billion. Pre-tax profit for its full-year was up 15.1% to £934.9 million, Revenue was £2.7 billion from £2.72 billion a year earlier.  Tesla has seen volatility the first half of the week as Musk accuses employees of hacks and code changes to production line software under false usernames and unauthorised data exports to third parties. Disney and 21st Century Fox pledge increases to sky and sky news funding, with the later being divested to Disney, to help push through the Fox/Sky merger. Footasylum down over 50% after profit warnings and slashed 2019 growth forecast by Analysts. Full year results show profit before tax down to £1.9m from £8.1m last year due to cost on the back of the companies inclusion in the AIM market. Grindrod (SA) Shareholders are advised that total earnings per share for the six months ending 30 June 2018 is
    expected to be positive (an increase of more than 100%). The prior year comparative period, being
    the six months that ended 30 June 2017, reflected a loss per share of 11.5 cents Sandvik Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    SSE Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC
    Ringmetall Downgraded to Hold at Montega
    SKF Downgraded to Sell at Goldman
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. JamesIG
    Asian stocks slide on further trade war tariffs. Yen, treasuries and gold gain as traditional safe havens. UK incomes for those in employment rise at the highest rate since the financial crisis according to IHS Markit yesterday. CYBG confirmed yesterday it had agreed a £1.7bn tie up with Virgin Money. Oil prices whiplash, but ultimately fall on expectations that OPEC and Russia will gradually increase output after withholding supply since 2017. Payment company Square has been awarded a BitLicence to operate in New York. BTC trades at $6700, and ETH at $515 Asian Overnight: Weakness in overnight markets came as no surprise after Donald Trump declared another $200 billion worth of goods that would be hit by a 10% tariff after China imposed a like for like $50 billion package of US goods to be targeted. This trade war is set to kick in on July 6, and instead of making progress towards a solution, it looks as if relations between the two biggest economies in the world are instead deteriorating. Meanwhile, crude prices rallied ahead of Fridays OPEC meeting, with rumours that a production hike will be smaller than expected.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the current themes impacting markets are likely to remain in focus, with few major economic events of note. Appearances from ECB economist Praet, and Fed member Bullard will provide a central bank focus. Meanwhile, the US session sees a focus on construction with the release of building permits and housing starts data.
    South Africa: The local bourseis expected to open up significantly lower this morning following on from soft US Futures and a rampant decline in China (-3.45%) and Hong Kong (-2.76%). Emerging markets are bearing the brunt of the weakness today from the 'Trump Tariffs', as reflected in their respective currency declines. The rand looks to be fast approaching the R14/$ mark. Tencent Holdings is trading 3.17% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similar move in major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.2% lower in Australia , which combined with weaker base metal prices is suggestive of an initial decline in local diversified miners. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: 'Be wary’ of Carney’s guidance
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Ashtead said that underlying pre-tax profit was 21% higher at £927.3 million for the full year, and revenues were up 21% at £3.42 billion. The dividend was boosted 20% to 33p.  McCarthy & Stone has issued a profit warning, downgrading its forecasts and announcing the departure of the CEO. Legal completions are forecast to be in the 2100-2300 range, compared to 2302 year-on-year.  Debenhams has issued another profit warning, saying that full-year pre-tax profit will now be £35-40 million, versus consensus forecasts of £50.3 million.  Beiersdorf upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Ferrexpo upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Verbund upgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    Edenred downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    Galp downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Hornbach Baumarkt cut to reduce at Commerzbank
    Informa downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. JamesIG
    Asian shares fall as the Trump 'tit-for-tat-tariff' goes ahead. China responds. Ex-Japan Asia down 0.5%, Nikkei down 0.7%. China and Hong Kong markets on holiday. Dollar eased from it's 3 week high, whilst euro remains subdued. The World Cup has kicked off with a record 32 teams taking part. Pared with great weather so far this month, and a strong forecast going forward, pubs have the potential to thrive. OPEC members in Vienna are to meet this week to decide on whether or not to end the oil production freeze. Members are split so a decision either way is likely to increase volatility and present a potential trade opportunity. BoE to set interest rates on Thursday. The banks MPC to meet earlier this week. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded lower once again overnight, as fears over a trade war between the US and China continue to set the tone. Friday’s confirmation that we will see tariffs imposed of $50 billion worth of Chinese goods prompted the Chinese to set out a similar package in return imposing tariffs on 659 American products such as cars, soybeans and seafood. With both the Chinese and Hong Kong indices closed for a bank holiday, the focus thus turned to Japan, which fell sharply overnight despite a rise in imports and exports.
    UK, US and Europe: Crude prices will be one of the main markets to watch for the week, with prices tumbling ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting. With the Chinese also indicating that their tariffs would include US crude, this further enhanced Friday’s selloff. A quiet day on the calendar front throughout Europe and the US sees markets retain focus on trade considerations. Central banks are likely to be the theme though, with appearances from Fed members Duke, Dudley, Bostic and Williams, coming alongside a Bundesbank monthly report and speech from Mario Draghi.
    South Africa: The local bourse looks set to open up lower this morning as global markets find short term pressure on the back of escalating trade war tensions. Commodity prices are trading lower with gold testing the $1280/oz level,  platinum the $885/oz and brent crude the $73/barrel mark. Base metals copper, zinc and aluminium all trade lower on the day. The rand is slightly firmer although still trading around its worst levels of the year. Conditions look particularly unfavourable for diversified resource counters today, further evidenced by BHP Billiton trading 2.4% lower in Australia. 
    Stock look ahead: Ashtead and Flybe are the ones to watch tomorrow as they release full year figures, whilst FedEx and Oracle in the US will release quarterly figures. Annual results for Severfield and Berkley will also be released on Wednesday and Micron Technology in the US publishes their quarterlies. Dixon Carphone will follow with annuals on Thursday. Quarterlies are expected from the UK's Carnival and the American Kroger on Thursday as well. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: How to trade a stock market crash
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Virgin Money has agreed an all-share takeover by CYBG, worth around £1.7 billion. CYBG will offer 1.2125 new shares for each Virgin Money share.  DS Smith reported a 17% rise in revenues for the year in constant currency terms, to £5.7 billion, while pre-tax profit was 8% higher at £292 million. The firm said it had seen good momentum so far in its new year.  PPC Ltd (SA) FY18 results showed headline earnings per share to have increased by 114c. Flybe expected to reveal widening losses tomorrow after a tough year and the 'beast from the east' remaining responsible for grounding nearly 1000 flights in the three months leading into March 31st. Other airlines worth watching. AB Foods upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Repsol upgraded to outperform at BBVA
    Cobham upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Enav upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    Pernod Ricard downgraded to underperform at RBC
    Robit downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. JamesIG
    A trading forum and help and support network for IG clients
    Over the last few months we have been working on a new layout for your Community, as well as adding greater functionality and new content areas. Today is the 'go live' date and we hope you like what you see. Have a browse, and if you have any feedback or suggestions please add a comment below. Maybe take this opportunity to make your first Community post if you haven't already?
    This purpose of this forum is for like-minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities, ask questions, and provide help and support to others.
    Learn strategies and trade ideas from experienced traders Give tips to the Community and share your market knowledge Perfect your trading by discussing ideas with others Get the most out of IG and ask the Community anything regarding trading or IG Anyone can browse the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to post or interact on Community. If you're new to Community and looking for a first step maybe check out the forum, or have a once over of our Community tutorials. We're also curious for any feedback you may have, so add a comment below to have your voice heard. We're always looking to improve our offering based on what traders want - so let us know!

    We migrated the old forum (and added some new features)
    We have migrated over all the posts, likes, 'kudos' and private messages from the previous version of the forum, as well as integrated the Community login with the wider IG eco system so you can enjoy a seamless digital experience between the platform and forum. You should be able to see all your previously posted content under the same Community username as you currently use. 
    New content areas...
    Blogs: We have three blogs which we will be updated periodically.  Market News - Daily morning briefings, index dividend adjustments, and one off articles IG Product Updates - A place to let you know about all the things we roll out IG Community Blog - Competitions, 'Ask the Expert' series, and Community updates Calendar: A way for discussion to be relevant and anchored to a specific date / time / macro event Our Picks: A hand picked showcase of the best IG Community has to offer. If individual client forum posts or comments get a significant number of upvotes then they may also be featured More to be rolled out shortly! ...and a few new features.
    Activity streams: If you're logged in you'll notice you can easily browse things such as 'unread' or 'followed' content. You can save individual search streams so they're available for the next time you log in  Advanced search: An updated and intuitive search functionality Leaderboard: The Leaderboard keeps track of the hottest content and best users each day based on reputation received. You'll increase your chances of getting on here if you post more, receive more likes, and help others Community Profile: Your space in Community. Check yours out by clicking on your username in the top right hand corner
    Access IG Community - anytime, anywhere
    IG Community will be up 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The easiest way to access IG Community is using the top right hand 'Help' drop down in the dealing platform, but you can also access via our mobile apps (look under the help and support section - try it now), or by simply going to community.ig.com

    This initial rollout is only phase one of 'the big Community plan', and we'd love to hear your feedback. What do you like? What would you change if you had the chance? What new areas would you like to see? Let us know using the comments section below. 
    Happy chatting
    IG Community Moderator Team
     
  11. JamesIG
    The ECB announced the end of QE with plans to half asset purchases starting in September. ECB interest rates left unchanged, but hints at "the summer of 2019" for a change. Euro slides. Trump plans to impose $50bn in tariffs on China, met with a pledge of retaliation.  BoJ to keep stimulus unchanged. Brent continued declines as Saudi Arabia and Russia hint that production figures could rise. Unilevel is "extremely unlikely" to remain in the FTSE after it's planned move to Rotterdam. Netflix share price at record high, doubling in value over the last 6 months. UK, US and Europe: Asian markets were down across the board overnight, as the expected US imposition of $50 billion worth of sanctions on Chinese goods stoked fears of an impending trade war. With the possible breakdown of US trade relations with China, alongside a host of G7 allies as seen earlier in the week, it comes as no surprise that we are seeing risk-off sentiment take hold as we move towards the end of the week. The dollar has gained against a broad basket of currencies, while the Euro has weakened considerably following yesterdays dovish ECB press conference. Meanwhile, the BoJ has finished off a week of major central bank announcements, with the widely expected decision to keep their stimulus unchanged.

    Looking ahead, a final eurozone CPI reading has the potential to grab headlines in the morning, with the recent sharp rebound clearly having an influence on ECB thinking. The US session sees a focus on tier two releases such as the Empire state manufacturing survey, industrial production, and the Michigan consumer sentiment number.
    South Africa: The rand has renewed weakness which is expected to weigh on locally listed financial and retail counters, whilst perhaps aiding gains on rand hedge industrial counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton has added 0.5% in Australia suggestive of a slightly positive start for diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: History of the US Dollar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Tesco Q1 sales rose 1.8% on a like-for-like basis, and were up 2.3% overall. Like-for-like sales rose 14.3% at the newly-acquired Booker.   Rolls-Royce said that the job cuts announced yesterday would cost £500 million in redundancies and system investments. It said that it remained well-placed to exceed free cash flow of £1 billion by 2020, with a mid-term target of free cash flow per share to exceed £1.  Glencore has agreed to settle a dispute with its former partner in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who had been seeking $3 billion in damages for unpaid royalties.   Carrefour upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
    InterContinental raised to neutral at JPMorgan
    SGL upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Umicore upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Bossard downgraded to sell at Research Partners
    OHL downgraded to hold at Bankinter Securities
    Campari downgraded to neutral at Citi
    IAG downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18th June 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    Special Dividends
    No special dividends expected this week. 
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. JamesIG
    Fed raised rates as expected last night, and sees more hikes likely this year. Trade war tensions between US and China continue. Trump to meet top trade advisors today. Surprisingly weak data out from China regarding retail sales. South African rand hits a 6 month low whilst the Mexican peso continues to fall to a 16 month low. Oil largely unchanged, but larger than expected decline in US inventories, and an unexpected drawdown in gasoline. ECB rate decision later today. Keep an eye on euro crosses from midday. Related video below. UK, US and Europe: A hawkish Fed meeting yesterday has led to a downbeat session overnight, with much of Asia and Australasia trading in the red as a result. The 25 basis point hike was widely expected, yet it was the shift in the dot plot which signalled that we are now looking at a likely four rate rises in 2018, rather than three. Trade war tensions have however weighed on the dollar overnight, despite the hawkish guidance from the Fed. On the macroeconomic data front, Australian jobs data saw a sharp drop in unemployment (5.4% from 5.6%), although the employment change figure fell to 12,000 from 18,300. In China, the fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures all disappointed, with a rise in foreign direct investment providing the only bright element of this data deluge.

    Looking ahead, European markets will no doubt be looking towards the ECB for guidance, with market expectations shifting towards an increased likeliness that the committee will lay out a pathway to the end of QE. Also watch for UK retail sales in the morning, and US retail sales in the afternoon.
    South Africa: The weaker US dollar has aided some gains in precious metal prices while the rand is clawing back some of its recent losses against the greenback. The stronger rand is expected help financial counters stem their recent currency related losses. BHP Billiton is up 0.4% in Australia, while Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower in Asia. Naspers, a major holding company of Tencent, is expected to trade weaker in line with its Asian counterpart perhaps extending losses with the stronger rand. 
     
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: Is the ECB near the end of easy money?
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Rolls Royce has confirmed that it will undertake ‘fundamental restructuring’, cutting 4600 jobs and aiming to save £400 million a year. Further details will come at tomorrow’s capital markets event.   Rathbones has completed the acquisition of Speirs & Jeffrey, Scotland’s largest independent wealth manager, and it will raise £60 million to help finance the deal.  PZ Cussons said that trading in the first half of the year had been constrained by weakness in the UK and Nigeria, and that conditions in Nigeria and Indonesia will mean the second half will remain challenging as well.   Volkswagen have been hit by a 1 billion euro fine over the emissions cheating scandal.  Comcast have topped Disney with a $65bn bid for 21st Century Fox which is an offer of $35 a share in a full cash bid. This represents an increase of 19% over Disney's share bid. Banco Santander upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Verbund upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Oxford Instruments upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Tele2 upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    (SA) Investec upgrades Sibanye to buy with a target price of 1600c
    (SA) Investec maintain buy recommendation on BHP Billiton with a target price of 26900c
    Acciona downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Grifols cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Orion downgraded to underperform at Jefferies
    Pearson downgraded to underweight at Barclays
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11th June 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange 
    Special Dividends
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
    Index: NIFTY
    Effective: 14/06/18
    Summary: Special Div of 1000
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
     
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  15. JamesIG
    US equity markets traded firmer overnight whilst Asian markets, for the most part, trade lower this morning Fed rate hike and FOMC meeting later today seems priced in US tariffs on Chinese goods reiterated by Washington Bitcoin falls to a 2 and a half month low on regulatory concerns  PwC facing a £10m fine over their poor BHS audit Tesla cuts 9% of staff with a refocused goal of profitability UK, US and Europe: A mixed affair in Asia saw gains in Japan overshadowed by losses across China, Hong Kong, and Australia. The boost provided by yesterday’s Trump-Kim summit seems to have been short-lived, with markets now turning their attention to the central banks and the continued trade tariff chat. First up it is the Fed, with the ECB and BoJ following in the final two days of the week. The dollar has continued to firm ahead of this evenings FOMC meeting and rates announcement and in turn, commodity prices continue to find short term pressure. Trade friction conitunes between American and China after Washington stated it is planning to release a list of $50bn worth of Chinese imports subject to a 25% tariff.
    In Europe there is likely to be a significant degree of interest around the UK CPI figure, with headline inflation expected to remain steady despite the wider trend of falling CPI over the first six-months of the year. Also keep an eye out for the employment change and industrial production figures from the eurozone. In the US, crude inventories gives way to the latest Fed rate decision, where Powell is expected to preside over yet another hike. Crucially, we also see a batch of economic forecasts to accompany that decision, with markets largely looking towards the dot plot to see if there is any shift towards expecting 4 instead of 3 hikes in 2018.
    South Africa: The rand has weakened significantly as a result of a strengthening dollar. While our local bourse is expected to trade more or less flat leading into the US data tonight, locally listed banking and retail counters are expected to see early pressure on the back of the currency move. BHP Billiton is trading 1.3% lower this morning suggestive of a softer start for diversified resource counters. Tencent is trading more or less flat on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar start for locally listed Naspers. 
    Economic Calendar (times in BST)


    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News
    Mulberry posted a fall in annual profit and said conditions had worsened in the early part of the new financial year. Pre-tax profit fell 8% to £7.5m, but revenue rose 1% to £169.7m. 
     
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  16. JamesIG
    Hey all.
    On the back of client feedback our charting team have just delivered a new feature on mobile and desktop. You can now quickly and easily see the percentage movement on any given period for any market. This is accessible from the 'Other Options' drop down, or by right clicking on the chart, and selecting 'Percentage' from the 'Scale' option. The percentage scale will then be reflected on the Y axis for the 1st candle (close) visible on any chart to the last. In other words, the percentage change for the visible candles on the chart.  
    As you zoom in or out the scale will adjust automatically. You can see an example of this below.
    Any questions, please add them to the comments section below.
     
     Right click > Scale > Percentage


      Percentages applied down the right hand Y axis

  17. JamesIG
    Trade war worries offset the gains seen in Wall Street with the Asian equity market struggling overnight. The trillion dollar valuation race between Apple and Amazon continues with Amazon tipping the $900bn valuation yesterday. GBP continues to take a beating against major world currencies as CPI data yesterday remained unchanged, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in August. US banking shares continue to do good in earning season as Morgan Stanley profit jump. Oil prices remain volatile but fall amid record U.S. output and stockpiling continues to build. Have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll. Asian overnight: Asian markets traded largely lower, as a breakdown in talks between the US and China highlighted the potential longevity of this recent trade war. However, despite the lack of any developments in trade negotiations, markets have largely taken the news in their stride, with losses proving relatively minimal. The Australian ASX 200 index was the one gainer overnight, despite a simultaneous rise in the AUD thanks to a batch of jobs data. A sharp rise in the employment change figure saw it rise to the highest level of 2018 thus far.
    UK, US and Europe: Global equity markets are trading mostly lower this morning although losses are marginal. While there appears to be no immediate and new economic catalysts to drive market movements this morning, US earnings remain a primary driver of equity markets right now. The dollar is slightly firmer and commodity prices modestly weaker this morning.
    Looking ahead, yet another important UK economic reading comes out in the form of the retail sales figure. With underwhelming jobs and inflation data, the expectations of an August rate rise are gradually easing, driving the pound lower. With the retail sales number expected to tumble from 1.3% to 0.1%, we could see yet another warning sign for the BoE today. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, alongside the latest unemployment claims figure.
    South Africa: BHP Billiton is trading flat in Australia suggestive of a similar start for the South African listing of the company. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.6% lower in Asia, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. A weak trading statement is expectant of a soft open for Woolworths, following on from a negative reaction yesterday to Shoprites trading update. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK retail sales (June): forecast to rise 2.4% YoY from 3.9% and 0.4% from 1.3% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 July), Philadelphia Fed mfg index (July): claims to rise to 217K from 214K, while the Philadelphia Fed index rises to 21.5 from 19.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    AO World said that Q1 revenue rose 8%, reflecting a strong start to the year in April and May, although demand was weaker in June. It remains on track to hit full-year expectations.   Unilever sales rose 1.9% in Q2, below the forecast 2.2%. A Brazilian transport strike and weak performance hit pricing.  Babcock expects low single digit underlying growth for the full year, versus a previous forecast of low mid-single digit growth. This was due to a slowdown in defence and marine work.  Sports Direct said that full-year core earnings rose 12.2% to £306.1 million, ahead of forecasts of £296 million. Core earnings are expected to rise 5-15% in the next financial year.   Buffet has won more power for share buy backs for Berkshire Hathaway if he feels the stock is undervalued. BRK gains 5.27% on the news. Lloyd’s loses market share in the uk mortgage space last year to RBS and HSBC. Although companies usually want to remain dominant in all forms of market share, reducing exposure, and therefore risk, to this particular market going into rising interest rates and Brexit may not be the worst thing. Adler Modemaerkte Upgraded to Buy at Oddo
    Salzgitter Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    Ericsson Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
    HelloFresh Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe
    Alstria Office Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    BioMerieux Downgraded to Hold at HSBC
    Hypoport Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    Continental Downgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe
    Featured Video from IGTV
      Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  18. JamesIG
    Asian markets broadly subdued to to global tech sell off. BoJ pledged to keep it's interest rates 'very low' and added flexibility measure to its stimulus package. This decision leads the way with the big IR decisions taken by the leading central banks this week. U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England is seen raising interest rates on Thursday. Dollar ends up paring losses against the yen after the BoJ meeting. Oversupply concerns cause oil to drop by it's largest daily amount in 2 years. Gold is slightly firmer but nothing to write home about at $1,222/oz. If you're looking for a big macro day, today is the one. Calendar below only shows high importance events.  Asian overnight: A largely negative session overnight saw marginal gains in the Nikkei and ASX 200 provide the only respite from a wider trend of downside for stocks. Following on from yet another bearish session in the US, we are seeing continued uncertainty despite the overnight BoJ decision to largely retain their monetary policy in similar shape. Monetary policy has been kept extremely accommodative. The bank’s shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix index did little to help the index over the course of the session, yet for the most part market fears proved unfounded. A busy economic calendar saw a largely bearish picture for the Japanese economy, with a rise in unemployment coming alongside fall in industrial production and consumer confidence. Chinese PMI figures did little to enable a more bullish outlook, with a deterioration in both services and manufacturing readings.
     
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic and corporate calendar really picks up, with the Germany starting in earnest with a better-than-expected retail sales figure of 1.2% (from -2.1%). The morning will largely focus in on the eurozone CPI and GDP figures, with core inflation expected to tick higher to 1%. On the GDP front, the only expected change comes in the year-on-year figure, with markets looking for a tick lower to 2.4% (from 2.5%).
    The afternoon sees another important GDP figure, with the Canadian growth reading predicted to rise sharply to 0.3% from 0.1%. Elsewhere, the US economy comes into focus, with the core PCE measure of inflation released alongside personal spending. Also keep an eye out for the consumer confidence figure. On the corporate calendar, earnings from Apple will no doubt grab the headlines as traders look out for any negative fallout from the recent trade war.
     
    South Africa:  Commodity prices are relatively flat this morning with gold remaining at depressed levels, base metals mixed and oil marginally lower although still  around multi-week highs. The rand is pretty much unchanged against the majors this morning. BHP Billiton is however up 2.25% in Australia suggestive of a firmer start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 2.6% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. In turn we expect the Jse Top 40 Index to open flat to marginally lower this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8.55am – German unemployment (July): unemployment expected to fall by 17,000 from a 15,000 drop in June. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    10am – eurozone CPI (July, flash), employment (June), GDP (Q2, flash): CPI to be 2% YoY, unchanged from last month, and core CPI to rise to 1.1% YoY from 0.9%. Unemployment rate to rise to 8.5% from 8.4%, and GDP to be 2.5% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June): income and spending to both be 0.4%, from 0.4% and 0.2% respectively last month. PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to be 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    2.45pm – Chicago PMI (July): forecast to fall to 63 from 64.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (July): expected to rise to 126.5 from 126.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Just Eat saw a 30% increase in orders compared with H1 2017, after the firm successfully integrated Hungry House into the business. While the firm saw revenues rise 45%, the short-term costs associated with Hungry House meant pre-tax profit fell 3% to £48.1 million. Thomas Cook played down expectations for full-year profitability, as a growing demand for low-margin budget Spanish holidays reduced demand for more profitable packages. The firm saw revenue rise 10%, yet profits fall 3% for the three months to June 30, as many delayed plans to book a holiday given the warm weather at home. BP saw better-than-expected earnings figures, as higher oil prices and increasing production boosted profitability. The Gulf of Mexico disaster payoff continues to drag profitability, with $700 million paid out over the quarter. BP raised their dividend by 2.5%, while also buying $200 million worth of ordinary shares back, totalling 29 million. Anglo American Plc In the sixth sales cycle of the year, demand for De Beers rough diamonds was in line with expectations during the seasonally quieter summer period for the industry’s midstream sector. Abcam upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Aegon upgraded to neutral at Mediobanca SpA
    DNO upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    Tamburi Investment Partners raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Heineken downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Wacker Chemie cut to hold at DZ Bank
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  19. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special dividends 
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying individual instrument, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
    Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
     Amount
     
    UKX
    BDEV LN
    11/10/2018
    17.3
    AS51
    ASL AU
    03/10/2018
    2.8571
    RTY
    KRNY US
    02/10/2018
    16
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
      This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  20. JamesIG
    In a continued effort to increase the amount of trade ideas and strategy pieces in the web trading platform, I'm happy to announce both Live and Demo clients can now access Community threads from within the platform. This will specifically surface the very latest threads from the 'Strategy and Market Discussion' board based on the 'most recent new thread post' hierarchy. 
    This follows further efforts such as including Reuters news and video, IGTV live video, and analyst articles into the platform. This means we're at a stage where we can produce a single news page which will collate all these channels in single view (with granular insight available on the click through). I can update when this is live.
     
    To access Community from within the web trading platform
    News - from the left hand menu Community - from the top level navigation 'Add to workspace' - if you're looking to add the news section as a permanent feature
     
    Video on Community location in the left hand fly out
    news flyout.webm
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