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RANZ

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Posts posted by RANZ

  1. I think FTSE 100 is a good candidate for shorting; it's oil and banks heavy....Covid has a direct and rather drastic impact on it. US indices are tec heavy so I won't short them until mortgages default start if any ( very unfortunate though if it happens).

    • Like 1
  2. 1 hour ago, dmedin said:

     

    Someone who has £500,000 or more, which qualifies for a professional account with lower margin requirements.

    Thats for being a professional trader, IG also offers premium services which can help you jump the queue or a direct line access. You don't need 500K for that. 

  3. On 09/09/2020 at 11:57, TGSDMR said:

    Hi if any one working with computors are using them for other actions as well as IG trading i would recommend that you use a computor for that alone, if you consider the info that comes throught IG is massive you have the  power to trade the worlds countrys.I made this error as problems with the platform was due to the settings on the computor needed to be reset due to buildup of junk cookes upseting the platform such as not able to place stops or limits, if you work with google crome go to the site and select settings and re set or phone IG tec and ask for help. If you do use your laptop/ etc for everything else i think you are at risk in times of high activity on the platform. 

     

    I dare disagree, I have 1TB hard disk and 16 GB RAM SSD on laptop and only IG is running but still charts are not loading ...it's a problem on the platform for handling the volatility and volume ....

    • Like 1
  4. 5 hours ago, dmedin said:

    So many kids are coming out of school 'writing code' nowadays that being a coder will be the new burger-flipper in 10 - 20 years anyway. 

    I am sure the technology already exists to fully automate the creation of code.  Just look at all the 'meetings' these people go to: they spend all their time talking, reviewing change requests, and fannying about with project management and agile scrums and other such total sh!te.

    We're all f*ked and there's no way out.  :)

     

    Everyone can write code, but not everyone has a brilliant or even a profitable strategy to convert it into an algo and this is where the difference is.

    Doesn't matter if you could automate it not, a rubbish strategy while automated would still produce rubbish results and vice versa.  

  5. 4 hours ago, THT said:

    Absolutely - I view things a bit differently to others which for me makes 100% sense of the markets, so periods of "irrationality" for me can easily be explained.

    Elliott Wave in 1999 published "Conquer the Crash" - the emphasis was on a deflating economy (USA) in the true sense of credit deflation for their expected ultra massive stock market crash they expected in 2000 - Low Int rates and QE were touted as possible weapons to be deployed - EW were though touting the end of the world stock market wise, that did not happen, but the Fed did launch the deflationary missiles - which they will say saved the markets

    How I look at this differently covers a couple of aspects - some of which I'm not expanding on:

    1. Interest Rates just as the Stock Market work out in cycles - The last time Int Rates were low was 1930-1951 - this was a period of 21 years give or take, the 2000 crash  brought low but not ultra low Int rates which have remained as per the 1930-51 period, the 21 years are up next year, so IF rates return to normality after that the cycle is tracking that of the 1930-51 cycle - We shall have to wait to see if that happens or not
    2. I don't agree with the markets not working normally - For me they are doing exactly what is expected - The Stock Market follows a 15-19 year cycle, I know this for a fact as I've plotted it since the Dow came into trading in May 1792, the cycle is UP then DOWN/FLAT sequence then UP again etc- just as in 1929 the DOWN/FLAT cycle was due so was the same repeat in 2000 (hence a possible cause for the current QE/Int Rate cycle) - These UP/DOWN sequences link in with periods of stock market, credit and wealth Inflation followed by deflation in those items, how much the stock market declines is depending on where the cycle is - there's a Fibonacci calculation to determine this but it's not something I'm disclosing - It's the reason WHY the stock market crash of 1929 looks very similar to the 2000 crash - you have to look at and work with the speculators market at the time, in 1929 it was the DOW, now its the Nasdaq100

    692716468_DJIA1914-1934.PNG.4ab1f826d70ef00bc24830b284127d1f.PNG

    screen-shot-2014-03-26-at-10-10-22-am.thumb.png.4b21b179288fe50bb8f14d1a6abcdb09.png

    Now for the past 10 years I'm 100% convinced that the stock market follows that 15-19 year cycle sequence - I've done enough research to satisfy myself - All that has happened is that the current Nasdaq100 has increased its energy - I'll admit without knowing all the causes of the cycles it might sound a little bit far-fetched - below is a screen grab of a website from 5 or so years ago - the DATES aren't exact to my cycles but you can get the picture and someone else is confirming the UP/DOWN sequence too - the sequence is: 

    1899-1915 / 1915-1932, 1932-1949, 1949-1966, 1966,1982, 1982-2000, 2000-2016, 2016-2034

    Capture2.PNG.83ef9e725c629a397b42ad30f2762cbe.PNG 

    The markets have for the past 228 years followed cycle expectation - I don't see them moving away from it ever - You just have to look at the markets in the right context which I admit very few people do - But when you understand the cycle and its internals, puts everything into perspective

    My estimation of this cycle is that plunges will only be corrections with the emphasis upwards - for the USA markets

    I first became aware of cycles in 2010, had perfected them by 2012 and since 2012 the market has been virtually spot on

    It's up to every trader out there as to how they view data, the markets and form their expectations - for me cycles tell me what to expect for the coming years, which for me has worked the best of all the methods I've researched and used to Trade/Invest

    Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, but I'll be very surprised if the low of 4th November 2016 in the Nasdaq100 is exceeded before 2034 (the low that kicks off the 15-19 year UP cycle has never been hit during the UP cycle phase in 228 years) always a 1st time for everything but probability says it's very low to happen

     

     

     

    It's great, I was also working on these lines to find the historical patterns and trade according to these patterns, I worked on the following graph to find the patterns: 

     

     

     

     

    Kaplan-chart1.jpg

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, 786Trader said:

    You are so right Dmedin.. going long on the dollar is the smart play....not. Streuth man, it's devaluing against sterling, which is testament to how bad things are. When the dollar makes sterling look good, obvious thing to do is go long? Aye? Counter-counter intuitive. Or just not very bright.

    No inter-coursing way. They keep devaluing the currency everytime they print/invent trillions more of it, it dilutes the value of the currency. Or should do, if folk were to question it. Owt stranger than folk,as my nan used to say.

    May be thats why Warren B for very first time in 100 (almost) years invested in Gold just now....

    • Like 1
  7. 3 hours ago, dmedin said:

    Guys, I am a hugely successful trader who traded trillions of forex for Barclays Bank and was then recruited into a prop firm.  I am so successful that after 16 years, I quit my job and have decided to offer non-technical analysis technical analysis courses to online punters for the enormously discounted price of £1000 (introductory course only, not including one-to-one mentorship).  I will teach you the secrets of trading success, such as VWAP, which nobody else has the experience to teach you that I have.

    And I am doing all of this out of the goodness of my heart!  Just look at these positive reviews that I did not pay for.

    I would never understand anyone who knows 'successful' trading practically having a 'key' to unlimited wealth why would waste his/her time training others for such meager money.....and if the cause is charity then it should be free...

    • Like 1
    • Great! 1
  8. @dmedinI've a naughty question to ask, are you a compulsive trader?

    for me as well, 1 minute chart does nothing, I find hourly best. But then I don't do technical and fundamentals much I do more on patterns trading. 

    • Like 1
  9. 17 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Wonder if PMI will stop the selloff :( A lot of resistance to going any higher, stalemate for weeks on end 😢

     

    Germany 30_20200821_08.30.png

     

    German PMI data is bad, UK data is much better but still both going downwards.......

    • Sad 1
  10. 4 hours ago, 786Trader said:

    Volatility is such fun. If you are on the right side of it , of course.

    Dow@ 27239, will go higher expect 27550+/- 1%. Then hang on to your shorts as it's big swinging cahones time. If there is no more stimulus, saving the Fed largesse then watch the Dow sink 3-5% as retrenchment may be the order of the day. With stimulus expect a gain, then retrenchment, then exuberance, then retrenchment, then a small nervous breakdown....... It's as if the Dow has become the schizophrenic naughty cousin of the S&P. Today is the last day before the delayed August break for Congress so it's pooh or bust for legislators, who will naturally blame each other if they fail to agree.  Ahh the competence of governments.......

    But isnt it August break is cancelled till there is an agreement on the bill?

  11. 49 minutes ago, DavyJones said:

    cheers man, I don't know about him, What do you mean about "quant trading", can you recommend a book. 

    Actually I was a quant for a long time, have a Maths PhD but my mistake before was ignoring markets and focusing purely on the numbers and theories. We strongly believed in efficient market hypothesis., the rational investor  and random walk theory but in recent years I realized that people do not act rationally at all and there are opportunities to be had. 

    Although I am still in my early days at this so as time goes on I hope to have broader experience 

    That's a good thing you have a math background, Jim is a renowned mathematician. For quant you just need to work on data, say last minimum 10 years of data to find patterns, for example I say if you want to trade on FTSE you need to find patterns for minimum and max high etc...and once you find patterns you need to test your strategies. Quant is much better as it's not an emotional response and it discards all the wrong **** response to news.   

     

     

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