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u0362565 last won the day on October 15

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  1. Looking at us500 the last few weeks shows there are small swings that you could potentially trade on but the stop needed would be very different to if you were aiming for the highest high. I've tried to show these minor swings. I think the only thing to do as you've said in the past is to split the lots or have multiple positions, one with an agressive stop and the other less so to give the market room. I just need to pick something and stick with it. I don't know how you do this full time, well I sort of do given this thread but hats off to you. Really I want a computer to do it all for me so I don't have to tie my brain in knots over it.
  2. Sold it off, good enough R value for me. Looked like it was losing steam. If it retraces a little I might look to come back in. But the market hasn't been so bullish in recent weeks so could be risky. I guess we will see how it shapes up
  3. Blue is entry, red is stop, black is target. The target is very optimistic but given that the stop has to leave a lot of room and perhaps my entry is not low enough as I'm above the swing low by quite a bit. I had an earlier position at the swing low but for that one I decided to cash it in early and I had some account recovery to do!
  4. I'm up 5R on US 500, but do I know how to manage the trade from this point, not really. I'm very good at keeping the stop distant hoping for greater recovery and then throwing most of that away when the market turns. As has been happening recently. It's tight or distant or sell some of it off.
  5. It's making me realise it's one thing to see a potential setup and another to manage the trade if it doesnt shape up the way you expect so that's something I need to figure out. I agree on the stop value, I've used similar but if you're expecting a move that lasts several days the trail needs to be considerably wider and then when it doesn't move off the way you expect it's more about damage limitation which for me means switching to a shorter time frame and trailing closer. Basically I think my point is that managing your exit is more important than where you enter and you need to have a plan for when it doesn't go according to plan!
  6. Hi THT, Encountered some complexities with the 50% levels recently on the S & P 500. See my image. Market came down and bounced off it several times. Not so easy when it's not a clear cut single bounce. Just wondered if you had any insight on how you'd deal with these situations if you've come across this before. one option would be to not have too tight a stop and then maybe you'd stay out of the choppy water but you'd have to be happy with the fact you have a days worth of growth to then see that disappear although stop wouldn't be hit you don't know that in advance. Strong constitution required. If you use tight stops then you're stuck with the likelihood of needing several attempts to get in on the move with some hopefully small losses. Even now it's not clear when the recoverly to the high might come. Certainly not doing it cleanly.
  7. Thanks for the comments, lots to think about. I'm probably guilty of not protecting my account enough, leaving the stop too long before moving to break even etc. But it is hard to do as you might get stopped when the market was going to continue on up and you have to start all over again.
  8. Thanks again THT, Been looking at the 50% levels on s&p500. Quite a large retracement like FTSE. Went through two of my 50% levels from prior swing lows but right now seems to be turning on the 50% level of the 3rd prior daily low, we shall see. The more lines you draw though the more likely price will turn at one of them of course. If you do get false positives it would be nice to not lose money but that assumes you've already moved stop to break even and I find you can't do that too soon so sometimes I do lose and hope the accumulated losses can be made back so long as the market gets back to close to the former high. I'm not thrilled about having to rely on that fact but what else do you have to go on..
  9. Ok thanks, i must admit i haven't looked into how Options work exactly but worth doing.
  10. Thanks for the detailed response. Yeah i mean assuming you understand the methods, you can look for the opportunities but i can see that its helpful to use multiple approaches. I just thought it was interesting that the double bottom was clear to see on the EUR/US weekly chart so you could just have kept on that chart, setting the target to the previous high then use a trail on that but instead you're still seeing that "weekly" target but going for the individual swings within that on the daily time frame. I guess its more profitable if you can cut out the dips but easier i guess to just have the one trade on the weekly chart, although that could be too simple approach. You want to keep it simple but the markets don't always allow given what you've said about having multiple approaches.
  11. Hi THT, I wonder if you could explain your thinking a bit more on the EUR/US trade. I've been watching this since you last mentioned the potential double bottom. From what you had said previously it seemed like you had/have a target of the previous swing high on the weekly chart. But then you mention have taken multiple R profit already from this, I assume then that you trailed your stop on the daily time frame and this was hit as the market is now turning on the daily bars. So if I'm correct about that it seems like you're mixing time frames? The target is on the weekly scale but the trailing stop and entries are based on the daily chart? If you stuck with the weekly chart the trailing stop would potentially not be hit yet as it would be lower but looks like it's too late for that as market has turned quite a bit to the downside and looks like a weekly based stop could get hit. If this is the case why do you always read people saying, know your timeframe. It suggests you shouldn't mix them.. Thanks for your input as ever.
  12. Yeah I guess they're potentially experts in investment products suitable for position/long term stock market growth but the markets themselves I guess not.
  13. Yeah seems tough to find that invalidation point at first but i know you're right, takes real discipline though. Perhaps with your posts i will move onto other markets other than indices as spreading your bets as it were seems like a good idea. The way to be successful from my experience which seems obvious is to know what's going on in a market. For stocks its easier, it retraces it rallies repeat, if you know that you can find a way to make it work for you. Not so clear cut in other markets from what i've seen but as you say due to speculators and less investors etc
  14. Yeah i think it does make sense, just seems hard to say if market drops below prior low all bets are off because then you might take your eye off it for it then to rally in the end but i guess that's why you let the market come to you when it validates the move you're expecting. The only trade type that makes a lot of sense to me at the moment is retracements and trading the rally. That works on a strongly trending market but wouldn't have the confidence to do on forex as the tred is not nearly as strong it seems to me
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