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u0362565 last won the day on July 20

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  1. Yeah well that's a far off pipe dream for me and most probably looking at the statistics, just trying to do better than index tracking investment at this stage, so far its paying off. Couldn't ever see me having the ability, confidence, constitution or whatever is needed to give up the day job for this.
  2. Yeah i caught equivalent to the 50% bounce but on DAX, they're all reacting similarly although the SP500 is more bullish than most. I'm hoping on a full recovery of the dip, SP500 looks to be on target for that-should have traded that index.. The risk i have is 164p, so if the market recovers the dip its about a 3.5R profit if i limit it to recovery of the dip. If i trail the stop who knows, depends how bullish it remains or not, DAX has been pretty choppy of late. I'll need to look into bouncing bomb, not really noticed that before.
  3. Yeah I see what you mean, I realise higher R is beneficial and the R multiple available is partly down to the market but also your stop distance from original entry. I have to wait for the market to turn, give it a specified amount of time then put in the trade, the amount of growth from the swing low in that time is the R for me. Depending on the market this could be 100 points + so when that is your R the market is going to struggle to give you high r values potentially so 3R looks good from my perspective. Thanks for the feedback again.
  4. Yeah ok i see what you're getting at and yes of course, only put the order in after its fallen through the level not before. Related to that. Using your example above, the second swing you mention comes down to the 50% point of not the current swing high but the former, for the current swing high this low level is 100% if this was a Fib. I'm not familiar with the Gann levels but the point is perhaps that you can't just look at the most current swing, you still need to see the levels calculated from former swings too is what it looks like. Of course some may just see it as finding support with the former low if we forget levels.. and see that as a reason to trade. When i mention a target i will actually use a limit order, which i know many will not be keen on because it is profit limiting, but for me if it gets to that swing high and say that equated to 3R or more i'm almost more happy to just bank that and see it as backup money in case trades in the future dont work out, i probably need to change my method to just trail the stop or have partial take profit. But you can see where i got the 1:1 ratio from in the data i showed, this was due to using the 50% level for entry then putting the stop at the low of the swing, and putting a limit at the high. If i didn't have the order at 50% but waited for the market to finish its fall then try to get in on it early my stop would still have been at the swing low point but the risk would be lower as i'd entered much sooner than waiting for the market to get back up to the 50% level, does that make sense?
  5. Inevitably with more info come more questions sorry. Just on the 50% gravity centres. You mentioned having a buy order placed around the 50% level. If you put that there and the market crashes a long way through 50% will that not trigger your order and your stop depending where that is of course? I'm just debating the merits of having an order ready to go at a price e.g. 50% Vs waiting for the market to stop and placing the trade in real time as it turns whether that's at 50% or lower. I've attached an example, excuse poor doodling skills. I've roughly highlighted a daily swing high and roughly 50% level of that swing. If I waited for the price to drop through this then placed a buy order at 50% my stop in this case would have needed to be at the previous swing low I guess to not get hit. This would make my risk/reward approx 1:1 if my target was the top of the previous swing high as indicated. I'm just checking I understand the principle based on my own example as it's easier for me to interpret but probably not for you! Always appreciate your feedback by the way.
  6. No problem thanks for the clarification. Apologies if you've said before i know this is a long thread now. If you were presented with a market you hadn't looked at before, roughly speaking how would you decide whether the methods you use would work? You obviously are somewhat selective about which markets you trade but i don't know if that's just because there are too many or you need specific conditions that are in play. For example, many markets have been trending up since the start of the pandemic, so I assume having a rough trend in one direction will be beneficial. Alternatively its not about the trend per se, you just need to see evidence of reasonable swings in either direction. The conditions we have now will be interrupted at some point but i assume its not back to the drawing board for other methods-these will work on markets showing the right conditions.
  7. Hi THT, Thanks for the post as ever, I sometimes struggle to relate what you say in the text back to where this refers to on the chart. So what i mention below you might not have talked about at all. I've added your chart but i wondered how you handle the smaller up swings, i have highlighted one in blue on the chart below. I can't see more of the historic chart perhaps this low hits prior support but its not visible so would you just not trade this swing. I don't have more insight than when the market does turn try to get in early, maybe it comes to something maybe not and then i might have a target that is the previous high labelled 2 in red on your chart but as you can see it didn't make it. So either you trail your stop up and you got a small profit or you don't and you hopefully take a small loss.. You then wait for the next swing low which did find support at the prior low i have highlighted in blue. but again it did not reach the former high at 2 at least in the data shown so you would need to trail a stop and not rely on hitting the target.
  8. Ok thanks, yeah interesting way to think about it. I personally cannot yet trade the swings from high to low, just have to wait for them to happen and hopefully get in on the rally.
  9. I see thanks. And when you're talking about lost motion, this is another phrase for retracements i assume? I looked up lost motion in engineering-kind of interesting to know but couldn't really see the link to markets, other than if you consider that any dips are just inefficiencies in the system.
  10. Hi THT, this week's stupid question. When you say 2 bar trailing stop. That's the low of the previous two daily/weekly bars behind the current day/weeks bar?
  11. Hi THT, I assume you have this vertical time grid plotted out in advance and you're waiting to see if the market obeys it. Is this time cycle purely derived from observation? So following the Covid crash you could observe 3 lows and plot 3 vertical lines and see that theres roughly an equal distance between them. You could then plot out more further in time with the same interval. That seems very simplistic but perhaps that is not how you come about it. When I say it looks simplistic I realise there is a lot more to a strategy than this observation to make it work.
  12. Forgot to mention your 50% lines THT, i see what you mean shaving off 50% of the market value does seem to be common when there is a big dip. Again don't see the sense why though but you can say that about a lot of things.
  13. Thanks both, with the time cycles i struggle to believe that these big events can be timed. But if in history it shows that every x years something big happens then that's surely more than coincidence. The problem i have with that is i don't understand why they would repeat like this-i know a lot of things repeat in markets! But with crashes i cannot see any logical reason why they would conform to this because aren't they triggered by unexpected world events and how can they be timed, perhaps its my lack of understanding of how the markets work. Anyway its certainly interesting. I often look at forex markets out of interest and i just can't see the patterns at all, they look all over the place to me but i have upward trends ingrained in my retinas so maybe no surprise! Thanks for the article Caseynotes, some good general tips, nothing particularly groundbreaking there but does at least make you realise everyone is basically using the same tools and very few have higher levels of insight.
  14. These are relatively rare events but I do find myself getting hung up on them.
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