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u0362565

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Everything posted by u0362565

  1. Thanks for the comments, lots to think about. I'm probably guilty of not protecting my account enough, leaving the stop too long before moving to break even etc. But it is hard to do as you might get stopped when the market was going to continue on up and you have to start all over again.
  2. Thanks again THT, Been looking at the 50% levels on s&p500. Quite a large retracement like FTSE. Went through two of my 50% levels from prior swing lows but right now seems to be turning on the 50% level of the 3rd prior daily low, we shall see. The more lines you draw though the more likely price will turn at one of them of course. If you do get false positives it would be nice to not lose money but that assumes you've already moved stop to break even and I find you can't do that too soon so sometimes I do lose and hope the accumulated losses can be made back so long as the market gets back to close to the former high. I'm not thrilled about having to rely on that fact but what else do you have to go on..
  3. Ok thanks, i must admit i haven't looked into how Options work exactly but worth doing.
  4. Thanks for the detailed response. Yeah i mean assuming you understand the methods, you can look for the opportunities but i can see that its helpful to use multiple approaches. I just thought it was interesting that the double bottom was clear to see on the EUR/US weekly chart so you could just have kept on that chart, setting the target to the previous high then use a trail on that but instead you're still seeing that "weekly" target but going for the individual swings within that on the daily time frame. I guess its more profitable if you can cut out the dips but easier i guess to just have the one trade on the weekly chart, although that could be too simple approach. You want to keep it simple but the markets don't always allow given what you've said about having multiple approaches.
  5. Hi THT, I wonder if you could explain your thinking a bit more on the EUR/US trade. I've been watching this since you last mentioned the potential double bottom. From what you had said previously it seemed like you had/have a target of the previous swing high on the weekly chart. But then you mention have taken multiple R profit already from this, I assume then that you trailed your stop on the daily time frame and this was hit as the market is now turning on the daily bars. So if I'm correct about that it seems like you're mixing time frames? The target is on the weekly scale but the trailing stop and entries are based on the daily chart? If you stuck with the weekly chart the trailing stop would potentially not be hit yet as it would be lower but looks like it's too late for that as market has turned quite a bit to the downside and looks like a weekly based stop could get hit. If this is the case why do you always read people saying, know your timeframe. It suggests you shouldn't mix them.. Thanks for your input as ever.
  6. Yeah I guess they're potentially experts in investment products suitable for position/long term stock market growth but the markets themselves I guess not.
  7. Yeah seems tough to find that invalidation point at first but i know you're right, takes real discipline though. Perhaps with your posts i will move onto other markets other than indices as spreading your bets as it were seems like a good idea. The way to be successful from my experience which seems obvious is to know what's going on in a market. For stocks its easier, it retraces it rallies repeat, if you know that you can find a way to make it work for you. Not so clear cut in other markets from what i've seen but as you say due to speculators and less investors etc
  8. Yeah i think it does make sense, just seems hard to say if market drops below prior low all bets are off because then you might take your eye off it for it then to rally in the end but i guess that's why you let the market come to you when it validates the move you're expecting. The only trade type that makes a lot of sense to me at the moment is retracements and trading the rally. That works on a strongly trending market but wouldn't have the confidence to do on forex as the tred is not nearly as strong it seems to me
  9. Hi THT, not specifically relevant to your post but just wonder how traders in general deem that a trade is invalidated i.e. you have a couple of attempts at entry and you get stopped out, when do you decide what you thought might be happening wasn't. If the potential R/R is high i guess you can afford a few missed opportunities but you do need to know when to call it quits.
  10. Yeah its tough, you've only just opened my eyes to these bigger patterns. I would say i am trading more randomly, although i wait until i see some sort of support but there is potential to be wrong many times meaning when the move does come it not worth much or worse it keeps going against you. Not had that happen just yet. The less structured you are in your decisions too makes it harder to believe your expectancy, because one month it may be good but then the next its bad, so consistency in what you do seems to help, but i guess consistently being right more than wrong, just as easy as that hey :)
  11. Sorry kind of going slightly off the topic, looking at the earlier part of that chart. I guess previously you can see a double bottom too as shown by the blue line on your chart below that i've attached? Did you use the same logic for that? It was a big swing high it turned out. Also the move from swing low 1, no double bottom, no obvious setup for that one? Can't see really clear support, I wouldn't have any reason to go for it necessarily but it was a big move again up to the previous swing high. I'm just trying to get into the right mind set and i guess you can't see them all
  12. Yeah ok I see what you're getting at, the more you look the more you see the same things happening time and time again. Like these ranges that then breakout. You don't even need to catch that swing that became the breakout. Yeah it might go up and up for many R which would be nice but you can do pretty well just trading just each swing up not expecting a breakout at all.
  13. Hi THT, i find double/triple tops/bottoms confusing because it seems like one or the other could happen, i.e. either the market will repeatedly hit the support and break through to go lower or it will keep hitting resistance and break out to move higher but on the face of it seems like equal probability of either. For example on your chart above whenever the support or resistance is hit you might think this could be the bigger move down or up so you're not sure whether to short at the resistance or long at the support each time. The only bias for me would be that if a market is in a long term uptrend i'd tend to be more likely to go long at support than short at resistance. I know they say the more the level is tested the weaker it is but both support and resistance are being tested. Where's that confused emoji!
  14. Just wanted to say thanks for creating this thread THT if you're winding it down. Really interesting to see how a long term trader views the markets. I certainly won't forget the name WD Gann!
  15. I guess i do it because i see the low point as relative safety and assume the market won't go through it, but this can make the distance from my entry to the low point quite large and hence potential R smaller. I'll take a look back to see how a % of ATR might have faired. cheers
  16. Oh just one more thing not related to your post specifically. How do you feel about trading what are essentially mirror image moves on multiple markets, as often they all follow each other. Is there a point? If you're right chances are you're right on all of them, if you're wrong you're wrong on all of them?
  17. Sorry THT, its me again! Following your posts with interest obviously. Just wanted to break down that last swing low a bit more. The R values you quote are of course dependent on your initial distance to you stop loss which if its only 10-15 points could be very high. I think the key thing i wanted to mention is that you obviously didn't have your stop at the swing low point on Monday 19th and wondered why you felt confident to have it higher. But this is the sort of thing that can make the difference between someone quoting 3R vs 8R. I assume as the market moved up through 50% and your order executed you then placed the stop once the market had chance to move above your entry, perhaps after some defined time period. I was trading the DAX which unfortunately was not as bullish but managed 2.5R+
  18. Yeah well that's a far off pipe dream for me and most probably looking at the statistics, just trying to do better than index tracking investment at this stage, so far its paying off. Couldn't ever see me having the ability, confidence, constitution or whatever is needed to give up the day job for this.
  19. Yeah i caught equivalent to the 50% bounce but on DAX, they're all reacting similarly although the SP500 is more bullish than most. I'm hoping on a full recovery of the dip, SP500 looks to be on target for that-should have traded that index.. The risk i have is 164p, so if the market recovers the dip its about a 3.5R profit if i limit it to recovery of the dip. If i trail the stop who knows, depends how bullish it remains or not, DAX has been pretty choppy of late. I'll need to look into bouncing bomb, not really noticed that before.
  20. Yeah I see what you mean, I realise higher R is beneficial and the R multiple available is partly down to the market but also your stop distance from original entry. I have to wait for the market to turn, give it a specified amount of time then put in the trade, the amount of growth from the swing low in that time is the R for me. Depending on the market this could be 100 points + so when that is your R the market is going to struggle to give you high r values potentially so 3R looks good from my perspective. Thanks for the feedback again.
  21. Yeah ok i see what you're getting at and yes of course, only put the order in after its fallen through the level not before. Related to that. Using your example above, the second swing you mention comes down to the 50% point of not the current swing high but the former, for the current swing high this low level is 100% if this was a Fib. I'm not familiar with the Gann levels but the point is perhaps that you can't just look at the most current swing, you still need to see the levels calculated from former swings too is what it looks like. Of course some may just see it as finding support with the former low if we forget levels.. and see that as a reason to trade. When i mention a target i will actually use a limit order, which i know many will not be keen on because it is profit limiting, but for me if it gets to that swing high and say that equated to 3R or more i'm almost more happy to just bank that and see it as backup money in case trades in the future dont work out, i probably need to change my method to just trail the stop or have partial take profit. But you can see where i got the 1:1 ratio from in the data i showed, this was due to using the 50% level for entry then putting the stop at the low of the swing, and putting a limit at the high. If i didn't have the order at 50% but waited for the market to finish its fall then try to get in on it early my stop would still have been at the swing low point but the risk would be lower as i'd entered much sooner than waiting for the market to get back up to the 50% level, does that make sense?
  22. Inevitably with more info come more questions sorry. Just on the 50% gravity centres. You mentioned having a buy order placed around the 50% level. If you put that there and the market crashes a long way through 50% will that not trigger your order and your stop depending where that is of course? I'm just debating the merits of having an order ready to go at a price e.g. 50% Vs waiting for the market to stop and placing the trade in real time as it turns whether that's at 50% or lower. I've attached an example, excuse poor doodling skills. I've roughly highlighted a daily swing high and roughly 50% level of that swing. If I waited for the price to drop through this then placed a buy order at 50% my stop in this case would have needed to be at the previous swing low I guess to not get hit. This would make my risk/reward approx 1:1 if my target was the top of the previous swing high as indicated. I'm just checking I understand the principle based on my own example as it's easier for me to interpret but probably not for you! Always appreciate your feedback by the way.
  23. No problem thanks for the clarification. Apologies if you've said before i know this is a long thread now. If you were presented with a market you hadn't looked at before, roughly speaking how would you decide whether the methods you use would work? You obviously are somewhat selective about which markets you trade but i don't know if that's just because there are too many or you need specific conditions that are in play. For example, many markets have been trending up since the start of the pandemic, so I assume having a rough trend in one direction will be beneficial. Alternatively its not about the trend per se, you just need to see evidence of reasonable swings in either direction. The conditions we have now will be interrupted at some point but i assume its not back to the drawing board for other methods-these will work on markets showing the right conditions.
  24. Hi THT, Thanks for the post as ever, I sometimes struggle to relate what you say in the text back to where this refers to on the chart. So what i mention below you might not have talked about at all. I've added your chart but i wondered how you handle the smaller up swings, i have highlighted one in blue on the chart below. I can't see more of the historic chart perhaps this low hits prior support but its not visible so would you just not trade this swing. I don't have more insight than when the market does turn try to get in early, maybe it comes to something maybe not and then i might have a target that is the previous high labelled 2 in red on your chart but as you can see it didn't make it. So either you trail your stop up and you got a small profit or you don't and you hopefully take a small loss.. You then wait for the next swing low which did find support at the prior low i have highlighted in blue. but again it did not reach the former high at 2 at least in the data shown so you would need to trail a stop and not rely on hitting the target.
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