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u0362565

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Everything posted by u0362565

  1. Hi there, For me at least it would be useful if it were possible to add drawings to a layer e.g. saving those drawings and being able to toggle them on/off. Similar to what you can do in graphics applications. I use drawings a lot for testing/paper trading and I may use different drawings for different strategies but all on the same chart so they can all get confused. If there could be a way to manage drawings and save them to a layer you could have multiple layers of drawings that you could recall as and when you need them. Thanks
  2. Hi all, I've been playing around with my own trading method which of course is not new and based on well known techniques. What I'm finding is that I consitantly come out break even. My risk/reward ratio is 0.5:1 with a win rate of 66%. Technically I'm losing money due to the fees involved in trading but I find it interesting that i'm even at the break even mark. Although I'm not strictly day trading my trades are on time frames less than days. Perhaps I should compare this to random trading and see if that comes out worse with the same R/R ratio, I would imagine so. All this being said, do you have similar experiences of this and could you/did make changes that tip the balance from break even to profit? Although breakeven is not the aim I'm almost encouraged by the fact I'm not losing money. I have to say also that this is all on demo, so going to a real account may decrease my win rate. I find it hard to believe that when traders start out they just magically go from losing money to making money, there must be a gradual shift from losing to break even to profit. Thaks for the advice
  3. I'll tell you one thing, I wish I'd learnt how to short a market right now! I assume this movement is somewhat to do with whats happening with Ukraine/Russia. It's crashed through multiple 50% levels so is there a point where you say this method no longer works for the conditions at play. For example you can draw 50% levels to your heart's content extending back in time on daily chart swings. If you see enough movement above the level you may decide to trade at least it would somewhat limit the number of trades you were making. Movement of the market back to the high at least if we believe in what has happened historically is a case of when and not if. What is dangerous in my eyes is moves downward that last a long time, like 2008 where it went on for months. If it's relatively quick down and back it's easier to weather e.g. 2020 crash. I am assuming that we are not on a longer term decline but I haven't polished my crystal ball yet this year so not sure
  4. Thanks for the info. I am aware of scaling but I was sort of not considering my question in this way. But it's another way to look at it. I was thinking more along the lines of using a % of account per trade. If you say doubled your account balance you'd then be using more of your balance per trade and could quickly eat into profits taken from the smaller account. Basically I think the answer is if you're not willing to lose money in excess of the profits you've made you shouldn't increase your account balance.. Which means the only way to grow your account further is through taking more profits on the smaller account. However, it must be typical for traders to start with a smaller balance then at some point decide to make it bigger with confidence.
  5. Hi all, I'm not ashamed to admit that I made some classic mistakes when I started trading. One being that my position sizes were way too big for the knowledge I had at the time. I think back on it now and ask what the hell was a I thinking! But hey you live and learn. I now look at the markets and think man this is hard rather than man this is a piece of cake which is weirdly a step in the right direction I think. I then decided to start again with a more sensible account size and position sizing. But I was wondering how others have scaled up their accounts over time as they grow in confidence. One issue is that you build up some profits and consider it market money that in a way doesn't matter if you then lose it but if you suddenly say doubled or tripled your account those profits could be swallowed fairly easily I imagine. 1% per trade of £10k is very different from 1% of £50k for example. Anyone got any thoughts on this. Money sitting around in a savings account is doing nothing for me other than its maintained which of course is by no means guaranteed in the trading world!
  6. Meanwhile the US500 is trying to decide what it's doing. Came through a 50% but seems to have stalled at the daily 20MA. Interesting movements from December, why do I get the feeling it's due a big retracement given its stayed above the weekly 20MA since the 2020 crash. It just can't maintain this. Out of interest do you ever short markets or do you just concentrate on one side. For stock markets being long only might make sense to limit the number of trades and given the positive skew. In currency/commodity markets I guess it's more 50/50.
  7. A 50% level on GBP/USD in progress? Not trading it but looking out for them.
  8. Yeah ok I find the ones that bounce more or less exactly at 50% easier to pick out as this is what has been happening on US500. But I see it can go down through the level then you need to pick it up as it pushes back up through it.
  9. I struggle to see the 50% levels in Forex, at least on daily or weekly time frames. I'm wondering if I'm missing something. Swings cab easily be 100% of the previous or more which makes sense given they range far more.
  10. Yeah I did catch that, I was basically wrapping up for Christmas but thought it was worth a go, got 4+R out of it. As an aside, I was having a look at the performance of an index tracking fund I used to pay into and its up14% for 2021. What I take from this is that last year was a good one for investors given the rebound from the low in April 2020. And to some extent if the markets are trending and you're a long short term trader you should also do ok, that includes using the 50% level method. I suspect if market conditions change the fund will not do so well and the 50% methed also breaks down (I suspect). That's why you need multiple strategies because one won't cut it all the time. I know you've posted a lot more than just the 50% but it's arguably the most beginner friendly.
  11. Thanks again for your posts this year. It's refreshing to see someone talk candidly about their trading methods and it's certainly helped me achieve a 20% return this year. Just a bit better than my bank savings rate.. Of course I could throw all that away but it's a decent cushion and something to work with. Merry Christmas!
  12. Don't touch Forex as a beginner would be my opinion, making sense of something that has no overall direction is hard.
  13. My advice is don't encourage people to day trade. Its a buzz word that every newbie comes across first, but its not how you should start trading in my opinion.
  14. Yeah had fairly tight stop and it was a bit choppy so got knocked out. Uncorrelated methods will work together as you say. 50% levels will work while the trend is still on but when/if that stops so does the method I would imagine and you have to do something different.
  15. I'll certainly be keeping my eye on the 50% level on the strong trend markets. There can be complexities around how/when to enter and I usually need a couple of attempts but the payoff is hopefully worth it still. Still so many ways to screw up of course. I need to think about a backup plan/diversify, don't want all my eggs in one basket. Thanks again.
  16. S&P 500 has bounced again at a 50% level THT! If I learn nothing else I appreciate that you've opened my eyes to this and stops me from trading too frequently. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
  17. Hi THT, thanks for the info. It looks like a decent trailing method would once again have worked well on the US500 but I set a target and that was that. I'm out now until another big move downward that makes it worth entering, keeping an eye to the 50% levels. I think that's the right mentality anyway.
  18. Hi THT, Thanks for the update. What I'm getting from you is that the relative stop distance changes to be closer to the market after a time a bit like what parabolic SAR would do. What's a bit confusing is how you can have a tight stop when the market had a few days where it ranged as I've highlighted in my chart. I got stopped out on a few of these days but hard to avoid? You don't know this is what's happening until it's happened of course. Because my stop was tight it meant there was still some profit left in it although I sold prior to the market reaching the highest high. the dashed line shows approx where my 50% level was set. I'm away next week if there is a delay in my response so apologies upfront.
  19. Looking at us500 the last few weeks shows there are small swings that you could potentially trade on but the stop needed would be very different to if you were aiming for the highest high. I've tried to show these minor swings. I think the only thing to do as you've said in the past is to split the lots or have multiple positions, one with an agressive stop and the other less so to give the market room. I just need to pick something and stick with it. I don't know how you do this full time, well I sort of do given this thread but hats off to you. Really I want a computer to do it all for me so I don't have to tie my brain in knots over it.
  20. Sold it off, good enough R value for me. Looked like it was losing steam. If it retraces a little I might look to come back in. But the market hasn't been so bullish in recent weeks so could be risky. I guess we will see how it shapes up
  21. Blue is entry, red is stop, black is target. The target is very optimistic but given that the stop has to leave a lot of room and perhaps my entry is not low enough as I'm above the swing low by quite a bit. I had an earlier position at the swing low but for that one I decided to cash it in early and I had some account recovery to do!
  22. I'm up 5R on US 500, but do I know how to manage the trade from this point, not really. I'm very good at keeping the stop distant hoping for greater recovery and then throwing most of that away when the market turns. As has been happening recently. It's tight or distant or sell some of it off.
  23. It's making me realise it's one thing to see a potential setup and another to manage the trade if it doesnt shape up the way you expect so that's something I need to figure out. I agree on the stop value, I've used similar but if you're expecting a move that lasts several days the trail needs to be considerably wider and then when it doesn't move off the way you expect it's more about damage limitation which for me means switching to a shorter time frame and trailing closer. Basically I think my point is that managing your exit is more important than where you enter and you need to have a plan for when it doesn't go according to plan!
  24. Hi THT, Encountered some complexities with the 50% levels recently on the S & P 500. See my image. Market came down and bounced off it several times. Not so easy when it's not a clear cut single bounce. Just wondered if you had any insight on how you'd deal with these situations if you've come across this before. one option would be to not have too tight a stop and then maybe you'd stay out of the choppy water but you'd have to be happy with the fact you have a days worth of growth to then see that disappear although stop wouldn't be hit you don't know that in advance. Strong constitution required. If you use tight stops then you're stuck with the likelihood of needing several attempts to get in on the move with some hopefully small losses. Even now it's not clear when the recoverly to the high might come. Certainly not doing it cleanly.
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