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About fancybear

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  1. Thanks, mate. I agree with your interpretation of following commercials (or industry insiders)' positions closely. And they are net short currently. And I'm a bit scared to buy into precious metals at this stage as there are significantly long positions found on non-commercials' books. Once they start unwinding these longs (that I expect to happen when interest rates rise), gold and silver could go really low. Last month's dumping of gold and silver (along with Soros' selling of ABX.N), kind of intuitively telling me to stay away from them right now. Having said that, I do believe, however, in
  2. I'm tempted to buy sterling but hesitant to touch it at the moment. Judging from options market activity it may go as low as 0.95 pence to a dollar next year(that's below parity). No position so far from me. But I'll wait patiently till it drops below parity. Prices always tend to overshoot.
  3. Interesting your COT data shows shorts heavily outnumber longs. What I saw from this week tells a completely different story. Producers (miners and the like) are net short (6.8% of OI is short vs 22.4% long), swap dealers (counterparties to miners, hedge funds etc) are similarly net short (4% vs 22%). The only bunch who are net long (almost record) are hedge funds and individual traders. See here http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
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