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ChrisN

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ChrisN last won the day on August 21

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  1. Well at least an honest and a detailed explanation of your thoughts and observations. IG must be/are the market leader in the UK. I say that because if your penchant is for small cap stocks then the first thing to realise is the sheer lack of volume/liquidity and hence the large spreads. Data will be sporadic because of that. Applies equally to AIM equities. Personally I try to steer clear of such markets but I wish you luck trying to find them within the SB arena.
  2. @Caseynotes Hah! You betcha bottom dollar fella! After Donald Trump became US President he went on a fact-finding visit to Israel. While he was on a tour of Jerusalem he suffered a heart attack and died. The undertaker told the American diplomats who were accompanying him, 'You can have him shipped home for $50,000, or you can bury him here in the Holy Land, for just $100. The American diplomats went into a corner and discussed this for a several minutes. They came back to the undertaker and told him they wanted the president shipped home. The undertaker was puzzled and asked, 'Why would you spend $50,000 to ship him home, when it would be wonderful to be buried here, in the Holy Land, and you would spend only $100?' The American diplomats replied, 'A long time ago a man died here, was buried here, and three days later he rose from the dead. We just can't take that risk.' Boom! Boom! @elle I'm very interested in what YOU have to say. I love opinion but a I said I limit my MSM reading otherwise it can get oppressive. You can't read it all...life's too short. I'm sorry if you found my response lacking.
  3. Just because you don't understand something is no reason, in my humble opinion, to doubt it. I don't understand Swahili, quantum physics nor Chinese mythology. Advanced EWT is not to be taken lightly but that should not in itself put you off. It can be massively simplified, using different timelines helps, and you certainly don't have to able to label W-X-Y (and sometimes Z!). It probably should be thought of more as an art form (subject to analyst's experience/judgement) rather than a science. It is simply, at the end of the day, recording sentiment. DSI is frequently used along with momentum/fibs as supporting tools. Can't remember who said it but "In the short term the market is a voting machine. Only in the long term does it become a weighing machine". Some want hard, definite results. It cannot do that. Nothing can in my experience, but if interpreted correctly it will give you a map of the way forward and therefore low risk entry points. Once you accept that the market is not driven by the MSM then you may be onto something. For example consider GBP/USD Brexit result at the end June 2016. Pound fell quite hard. The actual high of that wave occurred a full YEAR earlier around $1.70/£. Brexit was just a small portion of that wave but not the "cause" for the wave down. MSM dip into their drawer and pull out all sorts of arbitrary labels that they can slap on to try and explain "why". Often laughable and frequently contrary. Consequently, unless from a reliable & reputable source, I don't bother wasting my time reading it ( @elle that's my reply to you if that's acceptable?). If you understand that markets top on euphoria and bottom on despair then you're half way there. If you want results fast then you'll probably have to pay - but use a reliable source. Hopefully that is of some use ....and really, really I'm not here to sell EWT! As a side note I also use EWT to make some of my portfolio decisions As @Mercury said "But hey, if it does't work for you fair enough, find something else that does." I'd fully endorse that. Use it or don't. It's up to you but please refrain from insulting other EWT followers because you "don't understand it". Enough said, and no offense taken. Can we please now move on from EWT? Thank you and apologies for the length.
  4. Quite. Thanks for the great example. He correctly identified the low of wave 2 at 1270 and gave a big hint as to what he expected next. "Turning Up". A big move up in 3 which went off the top of chart!! If you know what you're looking at or employ the services of someone who does then I would regard the above as an excellent example of the power of EWT. Thanks again.
  5. More of a DOW man myself. I see this correction going a bit higher to a wave 2 top. If I'm right then get on board there because 3 down will be long & strong! Late cycle it is then. Hope that's not too much group think.
  6. @TrendFollower, I'm sorry i thought we had addressed this. See my earlier post on the previous page. OK try this as a starter https://www.elliottwave.com/articles (I don't think it's behind a paywall) You can enrol free and will get several articles/video links per week covering all areas. Give it time and keep an open mind. If you are intrigued there are several other good sources and cheaper advised professional services available. Like me you'll have to do your own due diligence I'm afraid. There's no short cut. How anyone could ever be expected to answer that is beyond me I'm afraid. And if they did I wouldn't believe them. Finally, sir, I respectfully ask you to draw a line under it.
  7. @MercuryI think the FRED chart backs up where are we in the cycle. I reckon towards the latter stages so still a bit further to go - hence my wave 4 thought/count (Don't go there). The recent quarterly reports out of US were generally better than expected. When I'm feeling euphoric I'll let you know!
  8. And this needs watching like a hawk. Care to guess what it is? Put you out of your misery!, It's the SX7E - EuroStoxx Banking Index. What's that? Well it's the biggest (roughly 25) banks in Europe (not UK). If they don't pull their skirts up soon....all will be revealed!!
  9. Thanks Mercury fully get that. On topic again. This is what the fuss is about. Inverted yield curves. As for choice of colour ...take your pick. Mine's blue but even that is very close now. Pretty easy to see why this has been regarded as a reliable indicator. The grey vertical bars are recessions. Hope it helps.
  10. And I should add that an economic recession is generally accepted to be a reduction in growth (GDP) in two or more consecutive quarters. Nothing to do with 20% although it's fair to say the stock market is likely to fall!
  11. My understanding is that refers to the period from the inversion point to the start of the recession.
  12. OK I think I see what you are saying but applying your own rules/interpretation of EWT isn't following the discipline. EWI is probably the best authority on this. They have plenty of free resources that can be very helpful with a free subscription. Ah! We all want proof in this world. Who doesn't? I won't be drawn into a us v them on this subject - been there done it - many years ago. It seems pointless to me preaching and I don't see it as my job to do so. In religion/politics/philosophy etc you have your preferences. So be it. Proof would destroy all of then. There are plenty of resources available and then draw your own conclusions. I'll leave it at that.
  13. Mercury, of course, how you label your wave counts is entirely up to you. Corrective waves (according to EWT) are in the following form: ZigZags, Flats (Regular & Expanded) & Triangles. Complicated corrections are usually a combination. A common one is a double Zig-Zag. Triangles can often found in wave 4 or B but never wave 2. Motive waves are usually pretty simple to spot even for a novice. The problem always occur with corrections in my experience. Knowing the substructure count is critical in that respect. ZigZag (5-3-5), Flat (3-3-5), Triangle (3-3-3-3-3). There is often an alternative count (although one will always be preferred) and only subsequent price action reveals which is correct. There are a few rules, but really not many, and some guidelines. With respect Mercury there is no rule nor guideline that I have ever seen that says "the move does not penetrate above the previous high" for a corrective wave!! For those that don't have the time nor inclination you can subscribe to various services. In the hands of an expert, when combined with Fibonacci ratios, trend lines and sentiment indicators it is, IMHO, a powerful tool.
  14. I'm sorry but I cannot rise to that bait. No comment
  15. Sorry for delay ....dental appointment! There is also a potential larger triangle for wave 4. Wave A & C often tend to equality. I'm drawn to this current wave being C down but it could fall short as a wave E. Stimulus or trade agreements being the likely catalyst.
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