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CyclingTrader

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Everything posted by CyclingTrader

  1. Some interesting views expressed about the current state of the uranium and copper markets in this podcast, reiterates the below that there is a serious underpricing of commodities as compared to the potential demand over the coming years and the dearth of producers in the case of uruanium or large scale mines which can be easily commercialised in the case of copper. https://www.macrovoices.com/396-marin-katusa-copper-uranium-the-ev-revolution
  2. I am not sure whether this topic could be used as a repository for book reviews of published material for interesting titles which I was originally searching for or more broadly interesting articles people have come across to broaden views. In any event I thought I would throw out a couple of book titles which I have personally found very useful: 1 - Trade your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp - bit of a classic but I found the view of risk management and how to conceptualise it very useful. I found that it wasn't the most concise book and laboured some of the points but it was a push to me to be more disciplined about record keeping and analysis of results. 2 - The Art of Execution by Lee Freeman-Shor - this was quite a punchy little book and that was one of the reasons I liked it there wasn't a lot of unnecessary repetition of points but it made the points well and thoroughly. The book concentrates on some of the psychological pitfalls of trading and his experience seeing this in money managers. Definitiely material I can relate to. 3 - Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional by Constance Brown - this is packaed with information, a very dense read and I have gone back to it several times. I wouldn't say I agree with everything but I have found it very useful in my interpretation of charts. 4 - The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets by Benoit Mandlebrot - quite readable considering the advanced mathematics which underly some of the concept of complexity and chaos theory involved. I find the idea of fractal dimensions fascinating and think the book overall helped to shape some of my thinking as to how markets behave. There are many more books on my shelf but I thought I would put this out there to see if there was appetite for discussion around published material.
  3. For what it is worth I think this looks interesting. There has been a channel moving up which favours your bullish case. I think you may see a short term pullback / sideways move coming off the upper trend line but longer term I like the general price action.
  4. Thought I would flag https://www.macrovoices.com/ as a podcast which I listen to. They have a regular discussion of the market position for oil, gold and mainly american indices but also have a variety of feature guests who are probably the most interesting aspect. They recently featured Jim Grant on bonds and interest rates which was very interesting.
  5. I recently filled in a survey regarding the IG platform services and broadly speaking I am quite satisfied, hence I am still using the service. However, since filling it in I have found some areas which I would definitely like to see added to the IG platform functionality: 1. Upgrade ProRealTime to v.10.3 2. Add the 'export DDE' function to the IG ProRealTime offer - there are a number of things this would enable me to do in terms of calculations that I would like to complete but am currently unable to do unless I can export the data into a spreadsheet, I understand this is possible in other platforms.
  6. Little bit late to this discussion but something I noticed the other week which I thought was interesting. Quarterly FTSE shows divergence price/RSI:  Monthly FTSE shows divergence price/RSI:  Weekly FTSE shows divergence price/RSI:  This just got me to wondering about the potential for a market correction which clearly was the subject of the thread. Thought I would share this for anyone interested, I am not one to take to the streets with a sandwich board saying the end is nigh but it looks a bit suspect.
  7. As you mention there are some strange goings on amongst the significant oil producing nations and OPEC are clearly going to a lot of effort to bring Russia round to their way of thinking. The uptrend in oil at the minute just clashes in my mind with two things: one is the level of agreement between oil producing nations which appears to be as water tight as a sieve especially when Iran and Saudi Arabia are diametrically opposed to each other in most everything and second the fact that as oil prices rise they bring more profitability to fracking and tar sands operations driving up production in these areas. Also there are many news stories floating about at the minute around the number of oil tankers fully laden at sea waiting for the price improvement to deliver their cargo which inevitably drives the price back down. It is difficult to see how the up and down pressure will play out at the moment.
  8. Hello, First time posting and I do not profess any particular expertise, however, I do have a willingness to learn and hope that this process of putting thoughts out there might assist in the process. Having looked at the Weekly US Crude it appeared to me that an inverse complex head and shoulders pattern was possibly being made out, though the pattern itself has not confirmed by breaking the neckline. I did note as well that the neckline in this case is sloping upwards which I am led to believe is related to a lower probability of a successful pattern. If it was then this would be suggestive of a final target in the region of $76-78 a rather bullish prediction given the dearth of production overall in the world. The second chart was my attempt at a shorter term horizon projection of possible significant levels going forward, this does include an assumption that the price will move upwards through the neckline of the pattern and that the general short term trend is upwards. Interested to hear thoughts, I certainly don't mind critique. 
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