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Welshman

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About Welshman

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  1. Hi Mate, Interesting view, I'm leaning the other way for a long-term bull market after completion of the current correction see daily chart attached. I'm struggling to make sense of the labelling atm as you'll see. The Wave 5 of c has either completed at 11086 or if not it's a 3 which brings it's own problems as that makes the latest wave up a 4. If it's a 4 it overlaps 1 therefore making that structure an ED and an expanding one at that. As you've pointed out previously EX ED's are rare therefore I'm favouring C complete at 11086 and the current wave up has to be 1. (but as yet labelling is unclear and I'm still working on it). Does any of that make sense? What do you think?
  2. Hey Mercury, Further follow up. I don't trade the S&P but do trade the DOW, refer our previous discussions on the topic. I have 2 valid counts for the current DOW setup: 1 Triangle (my favoured count) 2 1-2,1-2 If the triangle option completes then we're in for a new ATH in W5. The more bearish option leads to much more significant downside which is in line with your forecast. Having got stopped out of my DOW trade last week (too early again! ) I'm now waiting for a good enough pullback to enter . I wish you good pippage whatever transpires:) won't post that chart here to save confusion. Btw I think you also posted about EURGBP last week, it might just have started to descend as I have a first full 5 waves down (on 5 min chart) ..
  3. Agreed, patiently watching and waiting............
  4. Yep chart was of EURGBP, and whilst our labels are different I think we agree.... my question is whether or not there'll be on further push up before downside price action. However you could be right I've just been getting in too early recently..... Sorry DOW was on my mind at the time of post, stopped out for a loss, entered too early again. We previously talked about DOW , check the thread Good luck mate
  5. Hi Mate, Here's my chart and labelling for what it's worth. I'm not overconfident I must say and have been expecting a large drop for sometime. That hasn't happened. It's possible (probable?) that there's one final push up to align with the previous 4th wave (see dotted line on chart) before any drop and I'm waiting patiently to let price show its hand. Currently short the Dow which is turning against me........................
  6. Mercury, I'm still with you and in agreement (though I'm following different labelling structure) see previous response with Triangle scenario. Both counts call for a drop very soon. I believe the other indices, FTSE, DAX will follow suit . Good luck
  7. Hi Mercury, I'm out for a few pips profit as I saw this triangle forming on the 5 and 1 min charts. This means there's further upside to come and I can take some profit now and get a better entry later. The larger degree Triangle we've been discussing remains valid as long as the High at 11376 isn't breached. However if it is breached it's back to the drawing board for me...... Your higher stop offers better protection .
  8. Agreed, I'm waiting......................
  9. Hi Mercury, re your point about Expanding Ending diagonals - I don't have enough experience yet to agree or disagree but happy to take advice from others that have, so thanks. I'm simply trying to make sense of the structure from 4 and ED seemed to fit to me. However I'm very cautious now and I'll wait to see what transpires over the next few days. Having said that if the high at 1284.6 is breached I'll be watching very carefully. Thanks for your input, appreciated
  10. Thanks for that Jamko,it does help if only to add further caution to any potential trade entry:) I'll wait Interesting re EWI, do you subscribe to any of their services? I completed my EW training with them and found them very good. Must say though from training to action is a very BIG leap:)
  11. HI Jamko, welcome. Yes I follow DX too. As EURUSD falls I'd expect DX to rise as that's the expected behaviour I believe. I've attached a chart which shows a 4th wave triangle and I'm expecting further sideways price action for the next month(s) as waves D & E complete. This should lead to a new high completing wave 5 after which I believe the dollar will begin a long-term decline. Good luck
  12. If your stops are above my "A" you're in a very nice position imho..... ride it
  13. Nice one! Attached my count for GOLD. At the moment I'm unclear - see chart. Has 5 completed and we're already in the correction? or perhaps that's an Expanding diagonal and Red v has further to go? Like you I'm expecting a correction lower (in the form of a B wave) before a much larger move higher to complete C. My only question currently is has A completed or not? Only future price actio n will confirm that for me, so I'm waiting patiently for clarification:)
  14. Hi All, Great to see so much discussion on this board now. I've just taken a short position at 11338.7 on the basis that this is another (very Tricky!) 4th wave triangle. I'm unsure yet whether the last wave was "E" or still part of "D" but the basis for the trade is that neither wave can exceed "c" @ 11376.6 (if the triangle hypothesis is correct) so my stop is place just above that @11380.4. Couple of charts attached to see my rationale. Good luck to everyone.
  15. Yep, if it's correct Triangle A-E (seems to be working ok so far...). Again if it's correct you (are) and I (will be) trading the E leg in which case we should expect a higher high after completion of E. Looking good for you now and you'll be gaining the benefits of early entry, well done. E Waves are very tricky and it's difficult to anticipate their completion - the only thing we know is that it can't exceed 15450.3 (C wave low) if it does then the triangle hypothesis is invalidated and we're likely then in a larger move down in Wave 3 . There's a similar situation in EURUSD, very tricky triangle and I took a short position a few minutes ago - I'll post the chart here when I have time. Good luck to you mate, nice aggressive entry:)
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